Blue Jays Have Some Interest In Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner
The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Rhys Hoskins and Justin Turner as they evaluate their options at designated hitter, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s part of a wide net being cast by the front office, as Nicholson-Smith reiterates previously reported ties to J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson and Joey Votto as well.
Toronto has a vacancy at DH with Brandon Belt returning to the open market. Bringing in a left-handed bat to complement a lineup led by Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Danny Jansen would be ideal, but the interest in Martinez suggests they’re not limiting themselves solely to lefty hitters. GM Ross Atkins has alluded to the potential for multiple lineup additions, after all. The Jays could add a right-handed DH while bringing in a lefty bat in the outfield.
Hoskins lost the 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He’d likely have made it back as a DH or pinch-hitting option had the Phillies made the World Series. While that didn’t happen, the 30-year-old (31 in March) projects as one of the better offensive players on the market. Hoskins has been a consistent middle-of-the-order presence throughout his career, compiling a .242/.353/.492 line. He has hit between 27 and 34 home runs in each of the four full seasons he’s played while running better than average walk rates on an annual basis.
Turner has been a consistently strong lineup presence as well. He hasn’t had a below-average offensive season since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. At age 39, he’s no longer suited for 140+ starts at third base. Yet Turner could serve as a primary DH while rotating in at the hot corner, where the Jays have a question with Matt Chapman still in free agency. Turner is still more than capable of handling a primary DH role. He’s coming off an impressive .276/.345/.455, 23-homer showing for the Red Sox.
It doesn’t seem either player is a priority target for the Toronto front office. Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could wait out the market for another few weeks to determine whether anyone in a broad group of hitters of interest presents strong value later in the offseason.
Hoskins has also drawn reported interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Nationals. Turner has been on the radar of the incumbent Red Sox, Mets and Diamondbacks. MLBTR predicted Hoskins to land a two-year, $36MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, although a standard one-year pillow contract is also possible. Turner seems likelier to sign for one year given his age, but he could also command a salary in the $16-18MM range.
Mariners Reportedly Interested In Rhys Hoskins
The Mariners have interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins, according to a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Hoskins is considered unlikely to return to his longtime club in Philadelphia after the Phillies shifted Bryce Harper to first base full time earlier this offseason.
Hoskins, 31 in March, missed the entire 2023 season due to a torn ACL but was one of the league’s premiere power hitters since his first full-season as a major leaguer back in 2018. Over that time, Hoskins’s 130 homers tied with slugger J.D. Martinez for 15th among all MLB hitters while his isolated slugging ranks 24th, just below the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Olson while clocking in just ahead of players like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto.
That sort of prodigious power production would surely help the Mariners, particularly after the club saw Teoscar Hernandez depart for free agency while parting ways with Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, and Mike Ford. Those departures have left Seattle in position to improve their contact rate relative to last season, but short on power. The four aforementioned players combined for 75 of the club’s 210 home runs last season, leaving Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh as the lineup’s only reliable sources of power. Hoskins could improve the club’s power potential while also offering a palatable career strikeout rate of 23.9% that wouldn’t conflict with their goal of a more contact-oriented offense in 2024.
That said, the fit between the Mariners and Hoskins isn’t perfect, as the club currently has Ty France as their everyday first baseman. France was one of the Mariners’ better contact hitters in 2023 as he struck out at a clip of just 17.6%, but the 29-year-old’s 104 wRC+ indicates that his overall production left something to be desired, particularly given his offense-first position of first base. If Hoskins were head up north to Seattle, it’s possible that France, who has logged occasional time at second and third base throughout his career, could pitch in all around the infield while also spelling Hoskins at first base, allowing him to ease back into an everyday role with DH starts after his lengthy absence due to injury. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club fielded trade offers on France in the run-up to the trade deadline last summer, though it’s unclear if any such conversations have occurred this winter.
Hoskins isn’t the only power hitter the Mariners have been attached to in recent weeks, as free agent sluggers Jorge Soler and Martinez have both been rumored as potential targets for Seattle as well. Martinez is a somewhat questionable fit for a team looking to prioritize contact, as he posted a strikeout rate north of 30% in 2023, but Soler could prove to be an even better fit for Seattle’s needs than Hoskins given their dearth of outfield depth. Hoskins also has more suitors beyond Seattle, as he’s been connected to the Nationals in recent weeks while also reportedly discussing multiple potential contract frameworks with the Cubs.
Cubs, Rhys Hoskins Have Discussed One-Year And Multi-Year Deals
First baseman Rhys Hoskins has been on the Cubs’ radar for much of the offseason, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the two sides have remained in contact throughout the winter and discussed both one-year and multi-year proposals.
Word of continued interest in Hoskins comes not long after USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Cubs’ optimism about their chances of landing Shohei Ohtani had “significantly waned.” Perhaps the timing is sheer coincidence, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise for the Cubs to begin exploring contingency plans more earnestly if they indeed believe they’ve fallen behind in their efforts to lure Ohtani to Wrigley Field.
Hoskins, 31 in March, is a logical fit for a Cubs roster that lacks clearly defined options at both first base and designated hitter. Young slugger Christopher Morel is expected to get some reps at first base, but the 24-year-old has to this point in his big league career fanned in just shy of 32% of his plate appearances, making it hard to bank on him as a productive option moving forward — impressive as his power output may be. There’s also the possibility that Morel himself could be part of a trade package to address other needs on the roster; president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer acknowledged when explaining that Morel was likely to see some time at first base that Morel is blocked at his best position (second base) on the Cubs’ roster but “another team might be able to put him there.”
The Cubs also have 32-year-old slugger Patrick Wisdom in both the first base and designated hitter mix, but Wisdom has fanned at a jarring 35.2% clip over the past two seasons while hitting .206/.295/453 in 836 plate appearances. He’s slugged 48 homers in that time, to his credit, but the bulk of Wisdom’s damage has come against left-handed pitching and he could be viewed as more of a part-time player as a result.
Hoskins missed the 2023 season after suffering a torn ACL in spring training. He was a sensible qualifying offer candidate all the same, given his track record, but the Phillies opted not to make the QO and announced early in the offseason that Bryce Harper would be moving to first base on a regular basis. With Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos both also on the roster and in need of DH time, that all but closed the door on a reunion with Hoskins, who’d been the Phillies’ primary first baseman since 2017 (save for a one-year dalliance into left field that did not yield good results).
In parts of six big league seasons, Hoskins is a .242/.353/.493 hitter with 148 home runs. He’s walked at a stout 13.5% clip, and while his 23.9% strikeout rate is worse than average, it’s not that far north of this past season’s 22.7% leaguewide mark. He’s hit between .245 and .247 in four of his past five seasons, with OBPs ranging from .332 to .354 and slugging percentages sitting between .462 and .530. Broadly speaking, even though Hoskins hits for a fairly pedestrian average, his robust walk rate and plus power have made him an above-average performer with the bat. He’s typically graded as a below-average defender at first base but not a complete liability by any means.
That the Cubs and Hoskins have described various permutations of a potential structure shouldn’t come as a surprise. He’s a clear candidate for the conventional one-year pillow contract that so many prominent free agents have taken on the heels of injury-ruined seasons over the years. At the same time, it’s become increasingly common for players to secure two-year pacts wherein the second season is a player option. Such structures might’ve once been reserved for the game’s truly premier players, but we’ve now reached a point where even relievers (e.g. Emilio Pagan), swingmen and back-end starters (e.g. Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea) have landed such opportunities.
Agent Scott Boras, who represents Hoskins, has negotiated two-year deals with opt-outs for the aforementioned Martinez and Manaea, in addition to Carlos Rodon and perhaps most relevant to Hoskins, Michael Conforto. Like Hoskins, Conforto missed an entire season due to injury (shoulder surgery), but he nonetheless inked a two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt out this winter if he chose. The opt-out was contingent on Conforto reaching 350 plate appearances, which he did, though the former All-Star wound up staying put after an unspectacular first year in San Francisco.
That type of structure could well hold appeal to Hoskins. We at MLBTR placed him 26th on our annual ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents, pegging him for that exact same contract structure signed by Conforto.
East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays
The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.
The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.
As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.
More from around MLB’s East divisions…
- While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
- The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.
MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
- The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
- The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
- Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
- Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
- ..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
- Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
- Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
- Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
Cubs Reportedly Interested In Rhys Hoskins
The Cubs consider free agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins to be a “good fit for their roster,” per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. The pair adds that Hoskins is an attractive potential addition for the Cubs thanks to his postseason experience and his likely openness to a short-term contract, noting that Hoskins’s agent Scott Boras acknowledged that there’s “potential” for a pillow contract for Hoskins this offseason at the GM Meetings last week.
Hoskins is in a very unusual situation as a free agent, both because he missed the entire 2023 campaign due to an ACL tear during Spring Training but also because a reunion with his former club is all but certainly off the table. The Phillies have announced that Bryce Harper will be moving to first base on a permanent basis for the club after learning the position while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, while Kyle Schwarber is slated to act as the club’s everyday DH. Those positional changes leave the Phillies without a spot in their lineup for Hoskins, who played some left field early in his career with the Phillies but graded out poorly at the position and has been a first baseman exclusively since 2019.
Few teams are in clear need of an upgrade at first base this offseason, as the majority of clubs already have an established regular at the position. The Cubs do not fall into that category, however; while they ranked middle of the pack with a 103 wRC+ from first base last year, that production was buoyed by the contributions of star free agent Cody Bellinger, who is far from guaranteed to return to Chicago and was primarily used in center field with Chicago last season. Though the Cubs have reportedly considered giving young power bat Christopher Morel a run at first base, the youngster has never played the position at the big league level and was responsible for the majority of the club’s production at DH last year, meaning Hoskins could still be a fit even if the club wants to try Morel or a prospect like Matt Mervis at first base.
While Hoskins missing the 2023 campaign has drawn some attention away from him, it’s worth noting that the 30-year-old has been one of the most consistent hitters in the majors in recent years. Since he made his big league debut in 2017, only 24 hitters have posted a higher wRC+ than Hoskins’s 126 figure while stepping up to the plate more frequently than he has. He also ranks 19th in walk rate and 16th in ISO among all qualified hitters since the start of the 2017 season, while keeping his strikeouts limited to a manageable 23.9% clip.
Though Hoskins would add another right-handed bat to a lineup that already features Morel, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner on a regular basis, he would provide the club with an additional power bat that the club has lacked in recent years; no player has hit 30 home runs in a season for the Cubs since Kyle Schwarber (38) and Kris Bryant (31) did so back in 2019. Hoskins, by contrast, has hit 93 home runs across the three seasons of his career where he’s recorded at least 500 plate appearances, with a 34-homer campaign in 2018, 29 homers in 2019 and 30 in 2022. Given Chicago’s need for power and overall offensive production, both at first base and more generally, in the wake of Bellinger returning to the open market, it’s hardly a surprise that the club would be interested in Hoskins’s services.
While many clubs are already set at first base for 2023, the Cubs are far from the only feasible fit for Hoskins this winter. The Brewers are surely looking for an offensive upgrade after posting a 92 wRC+ as a team last year, and things were particularly brutal for the club at first in 2023; only the Astros and Rockies got less offensive production out of first base than Milwaukee, whose first baseman slashed just .237/.301/.381 with a wRC+ of 83. The Padres are another club that could look to add to their first base/DH mix this offseason, though the club’s payroll and infield are both bogged down by pricey contracts that could make it difficult to make room for Hoskins. The Mariners, Astros, and Angels could all also stand to upgrade at first base, though each has a plausible regular at the positional already in Ty France, Jose Abreu, and Nolan Schanuel.
Bryce Harper To Play First Base Going Forward
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, that Bryce Harper will play first base going forward. Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post adds that free agent Rhys Hoskins has been informed of the decision with the position player mix pretty set. Dombrowski added that the club sees Kyle Schwarber as its everyday designated hitter, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Though Harper could conceivably split his time between first and the outfielder, Dombrowski says he wanted Harper to be “in a position where he would play one or the other,” per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Harper, 31, had just two appearances at first base in the first decade of his career, but recent circumstances forced a change. In May of 2022, he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. That meant he was unable to throw, though the issue didn’t prevent him from hitting. The Phils kept him in the designated hitter slot for the rest of that campaign as Harper’s excellence at the plate helped them reach the World Series.
After they were defeated by the Astros, Harper finally went under the knife, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of last year. As he was working his way back to health, long-time first baseman Rhys Hoskins torn the ACL in his left knee during a Spring Training game, an ailment that eventually prevented him from appearing at any point in the 2023 season.
Harper went on to beat all projections for his post-surgery recovery and was able to be reinstated by early May, barely five months after his operation. He was limited to designated hitter duties initially but was eventually cleared to take the field. Since a first baseman is rarely required to throw at maximum effort, the club put him at that position as opposed to putting him back in his typical right field spot, which would have required more throws at maximum effort. The Phils used a combination of Alec Bohm, Darick Hall, Kody Clemens and Drew Ellis to cover the spot in the first half but that group largely ceded to Harper in the second half.
He made his first start at first base on July 21 and eventually made 36 appearances in total in the regular season, then stayed there for the club’s 13 playoff games. Advanced defensive metrics generally considered him to be around league average, though in a fairly small sample of work. Having Harper at that spot freed up the club to move Schwarber, who is considered a poor defender, from left field to DH on most nights. The Phils then split the outfield duties between Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache and Jake Cave.
After the season, it was an open question as to where Harper would be slotted going forward. By the time the 2024 campaign rolled around, he presumably would have been far enough from his surgery to head back to the grass. But with Schwarber and those five outfielders all still on the roster next year, that would have further crowded things out there, forcing the club to perhaps trade someone while also perhaps looking to external first base options.
But the club will stick with Harper at first, which doesn’t leave a space for Hoskins, who is now a free agent. It seems Dombrowski did him the courtesy of letting him know so that he can spend the winter looking elsewhere for his next gig. He hit 148 home runs for the Phillies from 2017 to 2022 but it seems his next homer will be hit in a different uniform. MLBTR recently ranked Hoskins #26 on our list of the Top 50 Free Agents, predicting a pillow contract of two years and $36MM.
This also could have ramifications for Bohm and the third base market. He hasn’t received strong grades for his glovework at the hot corner, which made the Phils a speculative fit to add a player there and move Bohm over to cover first, as he did when Hoskins and Harper were both unavailable. But if Harper is going to be implanted at first, it suggests the club feels fairly confident about Bohm at third. They could always sign someone like Matt Chapman and then make Bohm available in trades but the roster fit isn’t as clean with this development.
It would appear then that the club will be primarily focused on pitching for the rest of the winter, since the position player corps is considered to be in good shape. Aaron Nola is now a free agent and retaining him or finding someone else to replace him would seem to be the logical priority for the club in the months to come, though new developments can always change the calculus over the course of the offseason.
Phillies Do Not Extend Qualifying Offer To Rhys Hoskins
The Phillies will extend a $20.325MM qualifying offer to right-hander Aaron Nola but not to first baseman Rhys Hoskins, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
Hoskins, 30, was an interesting borderline case for a QO. On the one hand, he had slugged 148 home runs in his career and slashed .242/.353/.492 for a wRC+ of 126. But he then missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his left ACL in Spring Training.
That could have been a tricky decision for the Phils but it seems they have opted against giving Hoskins the QO, seemingly expecting that he would have accepted it. That would have been logical from his point of view, returning to a familiar environment while hoping for a bounceback campaign. A salary of $20.325MM for Hoskins would have been reasonable if he were healthy, but it’s also a lot of money to tie up right at the beginning of the offseason, in addition to the risk of him having some rust after the lost season.
The Phils also have some flexibility now that Bryce Harper got playing time at first base in 2023 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery and couldn’t play the outfield. The outfielder picture has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Johan Rojas, Brandon Marsh, Cristian Pache and Jake Cave, so perhaps they didn’t want to lock up a first baseman like Hoskins and push Harper back into the outfield on an everyday basis.
This only helps Hoskins out as a free agent, since receiving a QO has a negative effect on a player’s earning power. Being saddled with draft pick forfeiture will cause some clubs to lower how much they are willing to spend on a given player while some other will steer clear of such players completely. By avoiding the QO, Hoskins can avoid any such worries.
Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players
We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.
A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.
Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.
No-Doubters
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs)
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays)
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.
Likely Recipient
- Teoscar Hernández (Mariners)
Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.
The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.
Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.
Possible Candidates
- Mitch Garver (Rangers)
Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.
That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.
This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.
Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)
Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.
With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.
Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.
A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.
- J.D. Martinez (Dodgers)
While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.
Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.
The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.
In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.
If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.
- Jorge Soler (Marlins)
Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.
The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.
A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.
Long Shots
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (D-Backs)
Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.
Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays)
Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.
That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.
Ineligible
- Josh Bell (Marlins)
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays)
- Jeimer Candelario (Cubs)
- Michael Conforto (Giants)
- Justin Turner (Red Sox)
Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.
Injury Notes: Graveman, Matzek, Hoskins
Astros right-hander Kendall Graveman was unavailable for the ALDS due to discomfort in his right shoulder, and MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart relays that, per manager Dusty Baker, Graveman’s injury hasn’t improved enough to join the club for the ALCS against the Rangers. The news is a significant blow to the club’s bullpen depth, as Graveman posted a fantastic 2.42 ERA in 23 appearances with the Astros down the stretch after being acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline this year. That brought his season-long ERA down to an impressive 3.12 figure in 66 1/3 innings of work, though his 4.88 FIP leaves something to be desired thanks to an elevated 12.8% walk rate.
Even without Graveman, Houston is set up fairly well in the bullpen thanks to a trio of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Hector Neris with whom they can close out games. This is Graveman’s second stint with the Astros, as the club previously acquired him from the Mariners in a deal ahead of the trade deadline back in 2021. He was dominant in the postseason for the club that year, posting a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings of work. Graveman is under contract in Houston for 2024 on an $8MM salary.
More injury notes from around the majors…
- Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but David O’Brien of The Athletic relayed that the southpaw should be ready to go for Spring Training in February, according to president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulous. Matzek, who is under contract for 2024 with a 2025 club option, was a first-round pick by the Rockies back in 2009, debuted with Colorado as a starting pitcher in 2014 but pitched just 63 2/3 innings in affiliated ball from 2015-2019. He returned to the majors with the Braves in 2020 as a reliever and hasn’t looked back since, with a 2.92 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work with Atlanta. He figures to feature prominently in the club’s late-inning mix next year alongside closer Raisel Iglesias and fellow southpaw A.J. Minter.
- Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins is still hoping to return to the Phillies in time for the World Series after suffering a torn ACL during Spring Training this year. While Rob Thomson told reporters (per MLB.com) that Hoskins has been “moving forward” in his rehab, it seems as though Hoskins’s role will be fairly limited with the club even in the event he’s able to return to the postseason roster. Per Thomson, Hoskins will be used “almost exclusively” as a pinch-hitter if on the roster, as playing him at DH would require the club to move Kyle Schwarber back into the outfield, a move the club isn’t inclined to make. That said, a healthy Hoskins could be a factor in the club’s starting lineup if another injury elsewhere on the roster opened up playing time at DH for him.