Sonny Gray

Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

By Nick Deeds | September 29, 2024 at 11:35pm CDT

The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Report: Cardinals Open To Offers On Sonny Gray

By Nick Deeds | September 29, 2024 at 10:27am CDT

After a second consecutive season where they’ll miss the playoffs, the Cardinals organization appears to be in flux. With a presser scheduled for early in this coming week, rumors have swirled that the club is set to make some notable organizational changes to kick off their offseason. Those changes figure to be headlined by former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom stepping into a larger role with the club’s baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that this offseason’s changes could carry over to the big league roster as well. Per Nightengale, the Cardinals are willing to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Sonny Gray just one year after signing him to a hefty three-year, $75MM deal as the team hopes to cut payroll entering next year.

The notion of St. Louis looking to trim down its payroll isn’t exactly a shocking one. Cardinals attendance dropped below 3 million this year for the first time since 2003 (ignoring the pandemic-impacted seasons of 2020 and 2021), leaving the club with less gate revenue than expected. Meanwhile, the TV revenue side of things isn’t much rosier as the Cardinals are one of the teams impacted by the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. While MLB and the Players’ Association agreed back in July to redirect funds towards clubs that have lost TV revenue amid Diamond’s troubles, it would hardly be a surprise if the club’s budgets going forward were impacted by this revenue uncertainty.

Even if the overall baseball operations budget isn’t reduced, it’s still possible to imagine the club’s player payroll dropping heading into 2025. After all, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on the state of the Cardinals organization earlier this week and described a situation where the club has begun to prioritize major league payroll over investing in the organization’s development infrastructure, resulting in cuts to key areas of player development in order to sustain an ever-growing payroll at the big league level. With changes to the front office seemingly on the horizon, it’s certainly plausible that the club could pare back its payroll in order to invest in a more robust player development apparatus.

That possibility of a lower big league payroll next year leads back to Gray, who will see his back-loaded salary rise from $10MM this year to $25MM in 2025. While RosterResource at Fangraphs suggests St. Louis has just $108MM in guaranteed commitments for next year, that doesn’t include an increasingly expensive arbitration class including key players like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ryan Helsley. Nor does it include the possibility of the club deciding to exercise its club option on one or both of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, each of which are $12MM options with $1MM buyouts. With Gray’s $15MM raise this year and those possible additions to the payroll, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals may need to trade salary away in order to address the roster’s needs this winter even after shedding Paul Goldschmidt’s $26MM salary when he reaches free agency in November.

With that being said, losing Gray would be a major blow to St. Louis’s hopes of contending next year. The veteran right-hander had something of a down season in his first year with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s just 9% better than league average by ERA+. Even so, Gray’s 3.12 FIP was nothing short of excellent and he remains just one year removed from a dominant season with the Twins that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young award voting behind Gerrit Cole. The 34-year-old hurler would likely be an improvement to just about any club’s rotation next year, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals themselves finding an adequate replacement for the right-hander internally coming off a season where the club’s starters collective posted a 4.36 ERA that ranks 21st in the majors and a 4.08 FIP that ranks 15th even with Gray in the fold.

What’s more, the hefty salary that could lead the Cardinals to consider dealing Gray could prove to be an anchor that makes him surprisingly difficult to trade. Between his salary for the next two years and a $5MM buyout on his option for 2027, Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum for any club to take on, and it could be especially problematic for clubs at or near the luxury tax. Upon being traded, contracts are recalculated for luxury tax purposes based on the remaining dollars and years on the deal, meaning that an acquiring team would be accepting a hit of nearly $32.5MM to their luxury tax ledger over the next two years by trading for Gray. Even if the Cardinals can find a trade partner willing to stomach that cost, Gray’s full no-trade clause could further complicate things by allowing him to block any deal if so chooses.

That’s not to say a deal would be completely impossible, of course. Plenty of players with no-trade clauses and even larger contracts than Gray have been dealt over the years, and if the Cardinals are sufficiently motivated to get a deal done there will surely be suitors for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber. Nightengale suggests that the Reds, for whom Gray pitched from 2019-21 and made his second career trip to the All-Star game, could have interest in a reunion if the veteran is made available this winter.

The Reds have had a disappointing season in 2024 but nonetheless sport an exciting young core of talent led by right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Adding Gray as an experienced, front-of-the-rotation veteran would be a huge boost for a Cincinnati rotation that appears likely to lose Nick Martinez to free agency this year but still has a number of interesting young arms behind Greene such as Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Graham Ashcraft. Any of those young arms would surely be attractive to St. Louis as a potential return for Gray’s services given their own rotation needs, though it seems likely that the Cardinals would need to retain some money in order to facilitate such a deal given the Reds’ typically low payrolls and Gray’s large contract.

Cardinals Place Sonny Gray On 15-Day Injured List

By Nick Deeds | September 21, 2024 at 6:26pm CDT

Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray’s first season with the Cardinals has come to a close, as the club has placed him on the 15-day injured list due to flexor tendonitis in his right forearm. Right-hander Kyle Leahy was recalled to replace Gray on the big league roster, and rookie Michael McGreevy is currently slated to take Gray’s place in the rotation as noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.

Gray, 34, joined the Cardinals after signing a three-year, $75MM deal with the club on the heels of a dominant 2023 season that saw him post an MLB-best 2.83 FIP as a member of the Twins and finish second in AL Cy Young award voting to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Gray’s start to the season was slightly delayed by injury but he started strong overall, with a 2.60 ERA and 2.84 FIP in his first nine starts with the club that made it look as though Gray might be able to deliver more of the dominance that he flashed in Minnesota with St. Louis this year.

The results have left something to be desired for Gray ever since the calendar flipped to June, however, as he posted a 4.92 ERA in a 15-start stretch from early June to late August before managing to finish the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 1.91 FIP in his final four starts of the year. That leaves him with a relatively pedestrian 3.84 ERA overall in 166 1/3 innings of work, though the underlying metrics suggest he’s been a good bit better than that. After all, even that aforementioned stretch of 15 starts where Gray struggled saw him post a solid enough 3.63 FIP while striking out an excellent 29.3% of his opponents. Looking at his full season stats, he’ll end the year with a 3.13 FIP that ranks seventh-best in the majors, a 30.3% strikeout rate that’s tied with Tarik Skubal for the second-best figure in the big leagues behind likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, and 3.8 fWAR that’s good for seventh-most among NL pitchers this year.

Unfortunately, those promising peripheral numbers neither translated to elite production on the field for Gray nor wins for a Cardinals club that was recently eliminated from playoff contention and has a 77-77 record with eight games left to go in the regular season. With that being said, those strong underlying numbers do provide reason for optimism that better days ought to be ahead for the veteran in the future. That’s good news for fans in St. Louis, as Gray is sure to be a key fixture of the club’s starting five next year. As noted by Jones, Gray underwent an MRI recently that came back clean and would likely still be pitching if the Cardinals remained in the playoff hunt. That makes it seem unlikely that Gray’s current ailment will have any sort of impact on him when camp opens up for Spring Training next year.

Looking ahead to 2025, Gray figures to anchor a rotation that seems likely to include deadline addition Erick Fedde, veteran innings eater Miles Mikolas, and youngster Andre Pallante but still features some uncertainty due to the fact that the club holds team options on the services of both Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn for next year. While both veterans have been perfectly serviceable back-end arms for the Cardinals this year, with the aforementioned quartet and Steven Matz all expected to return in 2025 it would hardly be a shock to see the club decline the options of one or both players in search of an upgrade to either the rotation or lineup elsewhere on the market.

As for replacing Gray in the short term, Leahy returns to the club’s roster as a multi-inning relief option after posting a 4.02 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 47 innings of work earlier this year. Meanwhile, McGreevy made his big league debut in a spot start back in July and impressed with seven innings of one-run ball and currently sports a 0.90 ERA in ten innings at the big league level along with a 4.02 ERA in 27 starts at Triple-A this year.

AL Central Notes: Baez, Gray, Correa, Twins, Moncada, Soroka

By Mark Polishuk | August 24, 2024 at 2:55pm CDT

The Tigers placed shortstop Javier Baez on the 10-day injured list yesterday, calling up Ryan Kriedler from Triple-A to fill the void in the infield. It is the second time this season that Baez has been sent to the IL due to lumbar inflammation, though this latest placement also involves inflammation in his right hip. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press) that “we haven’t gotten the full diagnosis” on Baez’s injuries yet, but the team should shortly “know a little bit more about what the next month looks like and what, if any, baseball activity he’ll be able to do.”

That doesn’t sound like it bodes well for Baez’s chances of returning in 2024, as the Tigers have only the faintest hopes of a wild card berth and might just choose to shut Baez down to get him ready for next year. While injuries have contributed to Baez’s struggles this season, his .184/.221/.294 slash line over 289 plate appearances marks the third straight disastrous year for Baez since coming to Detroit on a six-year, $140MM free agent deal in the 2021-22 offseason. With $73MM still owed to Baez over the 2025-27 seasons, the contract is already an albatross, and it remains to be seen exactly how much longer the Tigers still stick with Baez as a regular part of their lineup (or whether they could release him altogether).

NL Central Notes: Gray, Cubs, Brewers

By Nick Deeds | April 7, 2024 at 1:39pm CDT

The Cardinals started the season without their biggest offseason signing, as staff ace Sonny Gray opened the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to a hamstring strain. The right-hander was scheduled for a final rehab start this past week before returning to big league action, but those plans were dashed by an unfortunate rainout that kept Gray from taking the mound. The club initially announced that Gray would have his Triple-A start pushed back to this coming Tuesday, but manager Carlos Marmol revealed to reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo) today that Gray’s start that day will actually be for the big league club.

Per Marmol, Gray will be limited to around 65 pitches in his Cardinals debut, where he’ll take on the Phillies in the second game of a three-game set between the clubs. Gray landed in St. Louis back in November on a three-year, $75MM deal following a dominant 2023 season in Minnesota. The right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP for the Twins last year in a performance that earned him his third career All Star appearance and a second-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting behind Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

The Cardinals are surely hoping Gray will bring that same form to St. Louis. The club was plagued by one of the worst starting pitching staffs in the majors last year, and the early returns haven’t been much better so far with the rotation’s 5.64 FIP in the young 2024 campaign is better than only the Rockies and Blue Jays among all big league clubs. Upon his return, Gray figures to replace struggling youngster Zack Thompson in the club’s rotation mix, slotting in alongside fellow veterans Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn.

More from around the NL Central…

The Cubs made a surprise roster move just before the start of their game against the Dodgers this afternoon, placing right-hander Julian Merryweather on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder strain as noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. It’s a significant blow to the club’s relief corps, as Merryweather has dominated with a 3.29 ERA (136 ERA+) and a nearly matching 3.46 FIP in 73 appearances for the Cubs across the past two seasons. Merryweather’s absence will pave the way for right-hander Daniel Palencia, who pitched to a 4.45 ERA across 27 appearances in his rookie season last year, to join the club’s bullpen. Meanwhile, Merryweather’s role in the club’s late-inning mix alongside Adbert Alzolay and Hector Neris figures to be filled by Mark Leiter Jr.
Speaking of pitching roster moves, the Brewers placed right-hander Jakob Junis on the 15-day IL yesterday due to a right shoulder impingement. Fortunately for Milwaukee, it sounds as though the issue isn’t particularly serious. According to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, an MRI on Junis’s shoulder came back clean and Junis told reporters that he hopes to begin ramping back up in a few days. That would seem to indicate an absence near the minimum for the right-hander, who’s been replaced by southpaw Aaron Ashby on the active roster while he recuperates. Ashby, 26 next month, did not pitch in the majors last year after undergoing shoulder surgery but now appears to be healthy, having already made a five-inning start at the Triple-A level this season.

Cardinals Notes: Gray, Thompson, O’Brien

By Darragh McDonald | April 3, 2024 at 4:39pm CDT

The Cardinals are still waiting for right-hander Sonny Gray to make his regular season debut with the club, after he suffered a right hamstring strain during the spring. His path back to the big leagues got muddied, literally, when this week’s weather prevented his ramp-up from going as planned.

Per John Denton of MLB.com, Gray was going to make a rehab start for Triple-A Memphis at Indianapolis today but the club changed plans due to the heavy rain in the forecast. Instead, the new plan is for a 50-pitch simulated game today in Springfield, Missouri, followed by a Triple-A start on April 9, which was around when he was hoping to be back with the big league club. But he’ll now be looking at a return on April 14, assuming a normal four-day rest period after his outing for the Redbirds.

When Gray is ready to return, he should slot into the rotation next to Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Steven Matz in the rotation. That will likely mean that left-hander Zack Thompson gets nudged out. Thompson started today’s game for the Cards and Denton noted that his velocity is way down, more than three ticks below his previous start. Whether that’s indicative of some kind of undiscovered injury remains to be seen.

If he’s healthy, Thompson has an option and can be sent to the minors when Gray gets back. He could also be moved to the bullpen to take over the long relief role currently held by Matthew Liberatore, as Liberatore also has an option and could be sent down for work in the Triple-A rotation.

Gray was signed to a three-year, $75MM deal in the offseason after posting a 2.79 earned run average with the Twins last year. He combined a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 7.3% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.

Elsewhere in Cardinal news, right-hander Riley O’Brien was placed on the 15-day injured list on the weekend due to a flexor strain. But earlier this week, Denton relayed that an MRI showed no structural damage.

O’Brien will still require a shutdown period before ramping back up, but that’s clearly a better alternative to requiring surgery and missing extended time. Acquired from the Mariners in November, O’Brien has just 3 1/3 innings of major league experience but had a 2.29 ERA in 55 Triple-A innings last year. His 13.6% walk rate was scary but he also struck out 37.7% of batters faced and got grounders on 57.1% of balls in play.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Quero, Cantillo

By Leo Morgenstern | March 30, 2024 at 12:08am CDT

The Cardinals have been hit hard by injuries in the early days of the 2024 season, but they have recently received some good news about several players.

Major offseason acquisition Sonny Gray suffered a right hamstring strain in spring training, robbing him of the necessary game action he needed to be ready for the regular season. The right-hander threw 36 pitches over three simulated innings today (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), and he will pitch for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds on Wednesday (per Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Jones adds that a return as soon as April 9 or 10 is a possibility.

Keynan Middleton, another significant free agent signing this winter, is not quite as close to returning, but Worthy notes that he will begin to work off a mound on Wednesday. He was shut down with a forearm strain in mid-March.

As for the position players, Jones mentions that Lars Nootbaar took eight live at-bats today and will take another four tomorrow. Manager Oliver Marmol will meet with the outfielder to decide if he needs a rehab stint at Triple-A before coming off the IL. Nootbaar is recovering from two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs.

Tommy Edman is dealing with wrist pain following offseason surgery. Worthy reports that he is set to undergo an MRI on Wednesday. The scan will show whether or not he is ready to start ramping up his swing. Finally, Worthy notes that Dylan Carlson received an injection to help combat pain in his left shoulder. The pain is a result of a sprained AC joint that he suffered during an outfield collision in one of the final games of spring training. Barring a setback, he should be ready to get back into game action before too long.

More news from around the NL and AL Central…

Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is being evaluated for a right shoulder injury, GM Matt Arnold told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, although it’s certainly worrisome when a catcher known for his strong arm injures his throwing shoulder. Quero is only 21 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. However, the highly-regarded catching prospect is one of three backstops on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, along with William Contreras and Gary Sánchez. If his injury proves to be serious, the team’s catching depth will be tested early in the season.
Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher in the Guardians organization, will miss eight to 10 weeks with a hamstring strain he suffered at the end of spring training, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cantillo was unlikely to make the Guardians Opening Day roster, even if he had stayed healthy this spring. That said, he is already on the 40-man roster, and after 18 starts at Triple-A last season, he seemed like a good candidate to make his MLB debut at some point this year. That could still happen, but he’ll have to wait at least a couple of months to get that chance.

Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar To Begin Season On Injured List

By Darragh McDonald | March 22, 2024 at 6:34pm CDT

Cardinals manager Oli Marmol informed the club’s beat today, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that right-hander Sonny Gray will start the season on the 15-day injured list. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar will start the year on the 10-day IL. Left-hander Zack Thompson will get a rotation job to start the season with fellow lefty Matthew Liberatore will be in the bullpen.

Gray was diagnosed with a right hamstring strain a couple of weeks ago and has been working his way back to health since then. Gray says he’s been healthy for about 10 to 12 days, per John Denton of MLB.com, but hasn’t had enough game action to be ready for the start of the season. Gray tells Denton that he thinks he’ll be able to return about 10 or 11 games into the season, since Opening Day IL stints can be backdated by three days. The Cards have a scheduled off-day after their eighth game on the docket.

While it’s not ideal for a club’s ace and key offseason signee to begin the year on the shelf, it seems Gray is planning on a minimal stay that will only involve missing a couple of turns through the rotation. Gray posted a 2.79 earned run average for the Twins last year, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.

As the Cards were looking to remake their rotation on the heels of a disaster season, Gray was the centerpiece of their offseason. While Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson were signed to serve as veteran innings eaters, Gray was given a three-year, $75MM deal to be at the front of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

Gray’s temporary absence will open a rotation spot for a little while behind Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lynn and Gibson, with Thompson stepping into it. He has a 3.65 ERA in 101 career innings to this point in his career. His 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate are all fairly close to league average. This spring, he has a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings.

He has an option year remaining and could perhaps be sent to Triple-A when Gray is healthy, but Liberatore has an option as well. That could perhaps leave Thompson in a long relief role while Liberatore is the one to go to Triple-A, depending on how the Cards want to play it.

As for Nootbaar, he injured himself making a catch a couple of weeks back and was diagnosed with two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs. Since Tommy Edman is also going to start the season on the shelf, the Cards will be without two thirds of their planned starting outfield. Edman has still been experiencing pain in his surgically repaired right wrist.

Until Nootbaar and/or Edman are able to return, the Cards will likely roll with an outfield of Dylan Carlson in center while Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson take the corners. Utility player Brendan Donovan will be rotating through multiple infield and outfield positions. Prospect Victor Scott is still in camp but the club could prefer for him to have regular playing time in the minors as opposed to a big league bench job, which could lead to Michael Siani making the roster. There are also plenty of guys shaking loose from other clubs as roster cuts are made and veterans opt out of minor league deals.

Cardinals Notes: Gray, Middleton, Center Field

By Leo Morgenstern | March 16, 2024 at 12:22pm CDT

New Cardinals ace Sonny Gray will throw in a “simulated pregame situation” on Sunday as he works his way back from a hamstring strain, according to John Denton of MLB.com. If all goes well, Gray could be ready to pitch in the team’s opening series against the Dodgers from March 28-31. However, manager Oliver Marmol told Denton that he has not yet decided on his Opening Day starter. That suggests the skipper isn’t optimistic about Gray’s availability for the very first game of the season.

The AL Cy Young runner-up in 2023, Gray signed a three-year, $75 million deal with St. Louis this winter to be the club’s new No. 1 starter. If he were at full strength right now, there would be no questions as to who would take the ball on Opening Day. Ultimately, however, the Cardinals won’t care who makes the symbolic game one start as long as Gray is healthy enough for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

In a much less positive injury update, right-hander Keynan Middleton will be shut down for 10 days as he nurses a forearm strain in his pitching arm (first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). While Gray was the Cardinals’ biggest free agent acquisition for the rotation, Middleton was their biggest free agent acquisition for the bullpen. As Marmol told Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, this “will obviously set [Middleton] back several weeks,” essentially guaranteeing that he will start the year on the IL. According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, St. Louis plans to be without the righty for at least the first two weeks of the season.

Middleton was a strong middle reliever for the White Sox and Yankees last year, pitching 50 2/3 innings and putting up a 3.38 ERA. He has spent time on the IL in almost every season of his career, and 2023 was no exception; he missed most of September with a shoulder injury. Still, his 51 appearances were his most in a season since his 2017 rookie campaign. He also posted a career-high 30.2% strikeout rate (his previous career average was 22.1%), a career-high 56.6% groundball rate (his previous career average was 32.9%), and ranked among the top 10% of pitchers in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. As a result, he finished with a 3.71 xERA, the lowest of his career.

While the Cardinals will hope Middleton doesn’t miss too much of the regular season, they will have to consider new bullpen options in his place. Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge, and JoJo Romero are locks for the Opening Day roster, while Andre Pallante is a safe bet as well. After those five names, Denton mentions Riley O’Brien, Nick Robertson, and Rule 5 draft selection Ryan Fernandez as contenders for the final three spots in the ’pen. Woo suggests the team has also considered a six-man rotation, which would mean running with a seven-man bullpen.

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have a decision to make in center field. As Tommy Edman continues to deal with pain in his wrist after offseason surgery, he will not be on the Opening Day roster. Dylan Carlson might have seemed like the obvious choice to fill in for Edman, but Marmol told Denton that the starting job in center field is still up for grabs. Carlson is a contender, but so are prospects Victor Scott II and Michael Siani.

Scott is the No. 83 prospect in baseball, according to both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He boasts incredible speed and plays phenomenal center field defense. Siani has a similar skill set but doesn’t have the same upside, which could end up helping his case to win the job; the Cardinals will be less inclined to rush Scott to the major leagues. Siani also has an edge because he is already on the 40-man roster. Carlson has better offensive abilities than either of the rookies, but he’s coming off a disappointing season at the plate. Moreover, while he is a capable defensive outfielder, both Scott and Siani have elite defensive potential. If Marmol isn’t convinced Carlson can figure things out at the dish, he might prefer to prioritize defense up the middle.

NL Central Notes: Taillon, Cardinals, Grandal

By Nick Deeds | March 9, 2024 at 7:42pm CDT

Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has yet to make an in-game appearance this spring due to soreness in his calves. That was set to change today as he was poised to make his first start since camp began, though those plans were scuttled when the club scratched Taillon from his start earlier today.

As noted by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, manager Craig Counsell indicated to reporters that Taillon was dealing with lower back tightness and that the right-hander’s back “locked up” while throwing warm up pitches prior to his scheduled start, though there hasn’t been imaging scheduled for the right-hander and Counsell indicated the club hopes to know more about Taillon’s status tomorrow. Sharma goes on to note that the Cubs are hopeful the issue was just a spasm and that Taillon has dealt with a similar issue previously in his career and that it often subsides after just a few days. Though Chicago is remaining optimistic that the 32-year-old will be able to avoid a trip to the shelf to open the season, the right-hander missing time to open the season would be a blow to the club’s chances in a crowded NL Central division.

Taillon figures to occupy the middle of the club’s rotation this season alongside fellow veteran righty Kyle Hendricks, behind southpaws Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga. The fifth spot in the Cubs’ rotation has not yet been determined but appears likely to go to one of Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, and Hayden Wesneski as things stand. Taillon’s four-year deal with the Cubs got off to a rough start last season as he struggled to a 6.90 ERA in his first 13 starts with the club, though he settled in to provide mid-rotation results late in the season with a 3.57 ERA and 4.23 ERA across the season’s final three months. [UPDATE: Counsell told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters Sunday that Taillon “came in today pretty much the same as he left yesterday. Probably not the improvement we were hoping for.” While the manager admitted to “a level of concern for Opening Day,” Counsell doesn’t “think it’s a long-term absence for Jameson, so don’t think it’s one of those concerns.”]

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