Cardinals Place Sonny Gray On 15-Day Injured List
Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray‘s first season with the Cardinals has come to a close, as the club has placed him on the 15-day injured list due to flexor tendonitis in his right forearm. Right-hander Kyle Leahy was recalled to replace Gray on the big league roster, and rookie Michael McGreevy is currently slated to take Gray’s place in the rotation as noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat.
Gray, 34, joined the Cardinals after signing a three-year, $75MM deal with the club on the heels of a dominant 2023 season that saw him post an MLB-best 2.83 FIP as a member of the Twins and finish second in AL Cy Young award voting to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Gray’s start to the season was slightly delayed by injury but he started strong overall, with a 2.60 ERA and 2.84 FIP in his first nine starts with the club that made it look as though Gray might be able to deliver more of the dominance that he flashed in Minnesota with St. Louis this year.
The results have left something to be desired for Gray ever since the calendar flipped to June, however, as he posted a 4.92 ERA in a 15-start stretch from early June to late August before managing to finish the season strong with a 2.55 ERA and 1.91 FIP in his final four starts of the year. That leaves him with a relatively pedestrian 3.84 ERA overall in 166 1/3 innings of work, though the underlying metrics suggest he’s been a good bit better than that. After all, even that aforementioned stretch of 15 starts where Gray struggled saw him post a solid enough 3.63 FIP while striking out an excellent 29.3% of his opponents. Looking at his full season stats, he’ll end the year with a 3.13 FIP that ranks seventh-best in the majors, a 30.3% strikeout rate that’s tied with Tarik Skubal for the second-best figure in the big leagues behind likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, and 3.8 fWAR that’s good for seventh-most among NL pitchers this year.
Unfortunately, those promising peripheral numbers neither translated to elite production on the field for Gray nor wins for a Cardinals club that was recently eliminated from playoff contention and has a 77-77 record with eight games left to go in the regular season. With that being said, those strong underlying numbers do provide reason for optimism that better days ought to be ahead for the veteran in the future. That’s good news for fans in St. Louis, as Gray is sure to be a key fixture of the club’s starting five next year. As noted by Jones, Gray underwent an MRI recently that came back clean and would likely still be pitching if the Cardinals remained in the playoff hunt. That makes it seem unlikely that Gray’s current ailment will have any sort of impact on him when camp opens up for Spring Training next year.
Looking ahead to 2025, Gray figures to anchor a rotation that seems likely to include deadline addition Erick Fedde, veteran innings eater Miles Mikolas, and youngster Andre Pallante but still features some uncertainty due to the fact that the club holds team options on the services of both Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn for next year. While both veterans have been perfectly serviceable back-end arms for the Cardinals this year, with the aforementioned quartet and Steven Matz all expected to return in 2025 it would hardly be a shock to see the club decline the options of one or both players in search of an upgrade to either the rotation or lineup elsewhere on the market.
As for replacing Gray in the short term, Leahy returns to the club’s roster as a multi-inning relief option after posting a 4.02 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 47 innings of work earlier this year. Meanwhile, McGreevy made his big league debut in a spot start back in July and impressed with seven innings of one-run ball and currently sports a 0.90 ERA in ten innings at the big league level along with a 4.02 ERA in 27 starts at Triple-A this year.
AL Central Notes: Baez, Gray, Correa, Twins, Moncada, Soroka
The Tigers placed shortstop Javier Baez on the 10-day injured list yesterday, calling up Ryan Kriedler from Triple-A to fill the void in the infield. It is the second time this season that Baez has been sent to the IL due to lumbar inflammation, though this latest placement also involves inflammation in his right hip. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press) that “we haven’t gotten the full diagnosis” on Baez’s injuries yet, but the team should shortly “know a little bit more about what the next month looks like and what, if any, baseball activity he’ll be able to do.”
That doesn’t sound like it bodes well for Baez’s chances of returning in 2024, as the Tigers have only the faintest hopes of a wild card berth and might just choose to shut Baez down to get him ready for next year. While injuries have contributed to Baez’s struggles this season, his .184/.221/.294 slash line over 289 plate appearances marks the third straight disastrous year for Baez since coming to Detroit on a six-year, $140MM free agent deal in the 2021-22 offseason. With $73MM still owed to Baez over the 2025-27 seasons, the contract is already an albatross, and it remains to be seen exactly how much longer the Tigers still stick with Baez as a regular part of their lineup (or whether they could release him altogether).
More from around the AL Central…
- Sonny Gray told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale that the Twins didn’t make much of a push to re-sign him when the veteran righty entered free agency last winter. “They were very transparent from the get-go, saying, ‘Listen, we do not have the resources to give you a contract, as much as we would like to.’ So, I kind of knew that,” Gray said. “Even though we did come back a couple of times and try to work on some things, I kind of knew early on that it wasn’t [happening].” The Twins’ lack of certainty over their broadcasting contract led to a payroll reduction last winter and continued budget limitations this year, so it didn’t seem too likely that Minnesota would be able to outbid the several other clubs who had interest in Gray’s services. Gray ended up signing a three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals, and he has continued to pitch well in St. Louis, if not at the level of his AL Cy Young runner-up performance with the Twins in 2023. Gray will face his old teammates today when he gets the start for the Cards in today’s game in Minneapolis.
- In other Twins news, Alex Kirilloff started a Triple-A rehab assignment yesterday and Brooks Lee will start a similar assignment today, manager Rocco Baldelli told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters. However, Baldelli still didn’t have any new news on Carlos Correa, saying the shortstop is just “continually making steady improvement” as he recovers from plantar fasciitis in his right heel. Correa hasn’t played since July 12, and he received a PRP injection early in his recovery process.
- White Sox GM Chris Getz told reporters (including Mike Clark of the Chicago Sun-Times) that Yoan Moncada and Michael Soroka will start Triple-A rehab assignments on Tuesday. Moncada played in only 11 games before a left adductor strain sidelined him for the majority of the season, but it looks like he’s on track to get back to the majors at some point in September. Soroka had a 5.23 ERA over 72 1/3 innings in his first season with the White Sox, and he has missed close to six weeks recovering from a strain in his right shoulder.
NL Central Notes: Gray, Cubs, Brewers
The Cardinals started the season without their biggest offseason signing, as staff ace Sonny Gray opened the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to a hamstring strain. The right-hander was scheduled for a final rehab start this past week before returning to big league action, but those plans were dashed by an unfortunate rainout that kept Gray from taking the mound. The club initially announced that Gray would have his Triple-A start pushed back to this coming Tuesday, but manager Carlos Marmol revealed to reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo) today that Gray’s start that day will actually be for the big league club.
Per Marmol, Gray will be limited to around 65 pitches in his Cardinals debut, where he’ll take on the Phillies in the second game of a three-game set between the clubs. Gray landed in St. Louis back in November on a three-year, $75MM deal following a dominant 2023 season in Minnesota. The right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP for the Twins last year in a performance that earned him his third career All Star appearance and a second-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting behind Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.
The Cardinals are surely hoping Gray will bring that same form to St. Louis. The club was plagued by one of the worst starting pitching staffs in the majors last year, and the early returns haven’t been much better so far with the rotation’s 5.64 FIP in the young 2024 campaign is better than only the Rockies and Blue Jays among all big league clubs. Upon his return, Gray figures to replace struggling youngster Zack Thompson in the club’s rotation mix, slotting in alongside fellow veterans Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn.
More from around the NL Central…
- The Cubs made a surprise roster move just before the start of their game against the Dodgers this afternoon, placing right-hander Julian Merryweather on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder strain as noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. It’s a significant blow to the club’s relief corps, as Merryweather has dominated with a 3.29 ERA (136 ERA+) and a nearly matching 3.46 FIP in 73 appearances for the Cubs across the past two seasons. Merryweather’s absence will pave the way for right-hander Daniel Palencia, who pitched to a 4.45 ERA across 27 appearances in his rookie season last year, to join the club’s bullpen. Meanwhile, Merryweather’s role in the club’s late-inning mix alongside Adbert Alzolay and Hector Neris figures to be filled by Mark Leiter Jr.
- Speaking of pitching roster moves, the Brewers placed right-hander Jakob Junis on the 15-day IL yesterday due to a right shoulder impingement. Fortunately for Milwaukee, it sounds as though the issue isn’t particularly serious. According to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, an MRI on Junis’s shoulder came back clean and Junis told reporters that he hopes to begin ramping back up in a few days. That would seem to indicate an absence near the minimum for the right-hander, who’s been replaced by southpaw Aaron Ashby on the active roster while he recuperates. Ashby, 26 next month, did not pitch in the majors last year after undergoing shoulder surgery but now appears to be healthy, having already made a five-inning start at the Triple-A level this season.
Cardinals Notes: Gray, Thompson, O’Brien
The Cardinals are still waiting for right-hander Sonny Gray to make his regular season debut with the club, after he suffered a right hamstring strain during the spring. His path back to the big leagues got muddied, literally, when this week’s weather prevented his ramp-up from going as planned.
Per John Denton of MLB.com, Gray was going to make a rehab start for Triple-A Memphis at Indianapolis today but the club changed plans due to the heavy rain in the forecast. Instead, the new plan is for a 50-pitch simulated game today in Springfield, Missouri, followed by a Triple-A start on April 9, which was around when he was hoping to be back with the big league club. But he’ll now be looking at a return on April 14, assuming a normal four-day rest period after his outing for the Redbirds.
When Gray is ready to return, he should slot into the rotation next to Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Steven Matz in the rotation. That will likely mean that left-hander Zack Thompson gets nudged out. Thompson started today’s game for the Cards and Denton noted that his velocity is way down, more than three ticks below his previous start. Whether that’s indicative of some kind of undiscovered injury remains to be seen.
If he’s healthy, Thompson has an option and can be sent to the minors when Gray gets back. He could also be moved to the bullpen to take over the long relief role currently held by Matthew Liberatore, as Liberatore also has an option and could be sent down for work in the Triple-A rotation.
Gray was signed to a three-year, $75MM deal in the offseason after posting a 2.79 earned run average with the Twins last year. He combined a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 7.3% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.
Elsewhere in Cardinal news, right-hander Riley O’Brien was placed on the 15-day injured list on the weekend due to a flexor strain. But earlier this week, Denton relayed that an MRI showed no structural damage.
O’Brien will still require a shutdown period before ramping back up, but that’s clearly a better alternative to requiring surgery and missing extended time. Acquired from the Mariners in November, O’Brien has just 3 1/3 innings of major league experience but had a 2.29 ERA in 55 Triple-A innings last year. His 13.6% walk rate was scary but he also struck out 37.7% of batters faced and got grounders on 57.1% of balls in play.
Central Notes: Cardinals, Quero, Cantillo
The Cardinals have been hit hard by injuries in the early days of the 2024 season, but they have recently received some good news about several players.
Major offseason acquisition Sonny Gray suffered a right hamstring strain in spring training, robbing him of the necessary game action he needed to be ready for the regular season. The right-hander threw 36 pitches over three simulated innings today (per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat), and he will pitch for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds on Wednesday (per Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Jones adds that a return as soon as April 9 or 10 is a possibility.
Keynan Middleton, another significant free agent signing this winter, is not quite as close to returning, but Worthy notes that he will begin to work off a mound on Wednesday. He was shut down with a forearm strain in mid-March.
As for the position players, Jones mentions that Lars Nootbaar took eight live at-bats today and will take another four tomorrow. Manager Oliver Marmol will meet with the outfielder to decide if he needs a rehab stint at Triple-A before coming off the IL. Nootbaar is recovering from two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs.
Tommy Edman is dealing with wrist pain following offseason surgery. Worthy reports that he is set to undergo an MRI on Wednesday. The scan will show whether or not he is ready to start ramping up his swing. Finally, Worthy notes that Dylan Carlson received an injection to help combat pain in his left shoulder. The pain is a result of a sprained AC joint that he suffered during an outfield collision in one of the final games of spring training. Barring a setback, he should be ready to get back into game action before too long.
More news from around the NL and AL Central…
- Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is being evaluated for a right shoulder injury, GM Matt Arnold told reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, although it’s certainly worrisome when a catcher known for his strong arm injures his throwing shoulder. Quero is only 21 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. However, the highly-regarded catching prospect is one of three backstops on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, along with William Contreras and Gary Sánchez. If his injury proves to be serious, the team’s catching depth will be tested early in the season.
- Joey Cantillo, a left-handed pitcher in the Guardians organization, will miss eight to 10 weeks with a hamstring strain he suffered at the end of spring training, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Cantillo was unlikely to make the Guardians Opening Day roster, even if he had stayed healthy this spring. That said, he is already on the 40-man roster, and after 18 starts at Triple-A last season, he seemed like a good candidate to make his MLB debut at some point this year. That could still happen, but he’ll have to wait at least a couple of months to get that chance.
Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar To Begin Season On Injured List
Cardinals manager Oli Marmol informed the club’s beat today, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that right-hander Sonny Gray will start the season on the 15-day injured list. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar will start the year on the 10-day IL. Left-hander Zack Thompson will get a rotation job to start the season with fellow lefty Matthew Liberatore will be in the bullpen.
Gray was diagnosed with a right hamstring strain a couple of weeks ago and has been working his way back to health since then. Gray says he’s been healthy for about 10 to 12 days, per John Denton of MLB.com, but hasn’t had enough game action to be ready for the start of the season. Gray tells Denton that he thinks he’ll be able to return about 10 or 11 games into the season, since Opening Day IL stints can be backdated by three days. The Cards have a scheduled off-day after their eighth game on the docket.
While it’s not ideal for a club’s ace and key offseason signee to begin the year on the shelf, it seems Gray is planning on a minimal stay that will only involve missing a couple of turns through the rotation. Gray posted a 2.79 earned run average for the Twins last year, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.
As the Cards were looking to remake their rotation on the heels of a disaster season, Gray was the centerpiece of their offseason. While Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson were signed to serve as veteran innings eaters, Gray was given a three-year, $75MM deal to be at the front of the rotation for the foreseeable future.
Gray’s temporary absence will open a rotation spot for a little while behind Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lynn and Gibson, with Thompson stepping into it. He has a 3.65 ERA in 101 career innings to this point in his career. His 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate are all fairly close to league average. This spring, he has a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings.
He has an option year remaining and could perhaps be sent to Triple-A when Gray is healthy, but Liberatore has an option as well. That could perhaps leave Thompson in a long relief role while Liberatore is the one to go to Triple-A, depending on how the Cards want to play it.
As for Nootbaar, he injured himself making a catch a couple of weeks back and was diagnosed with two nondisplaced fractures in his ribs. Since Tommy Edman is also going to start the season on the shelf, the Cards will be without two thirds of their planned starting outfield. Edman has still been experiencing pain in his surgically repaired right wrist.
Until Nootbaar and/or Edman are able to return, the Cards will likely roll with an outfield of Dylan Carlson in center while Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson take the corners. Utility player Brendan Donovan will be rotating through multiple infield and outfield positions. Prospect Victor Scott is still in camp but the club could prefer for him to have regular playing time in the minors as opposed to a big league bench job, which could lead to Michael Siani making the roster. There are also plenty of guys shaking loose from other clubs as roster cuts are made and veterans opt out of minor league deals.
Cardinals Notes: Gray, Middleton, Center Field
New Cardinals ace Sonny Gray will throw in a “simulated pregame situation” on Sunday as he works his way back from a hamstring strain, according to John Denton of MLB.com. If all goes well, Gray could be ready to pitch in the team’s opening series against the Dodgers from March 28-31. However, manager Oliver Marmol told Denton that he has not yet decided on his Opening Day starter. That suggests the skipper isn’t optimistic about Gray’s availability for the very first game of the season.
The AL Cy Young runner-up in 2023, Gray signed a three-year, $75 million deal with St. Louis this winter to be the club’s new No. 1 starter. If he were at full strength right now, there would be no questions as to who would take the ball on Opening Day. Ultimately, however, the Cardinals won’t care who makes the symbolic game one start as long as Gray is healthy enough for a spot on the Opening Day roster.
In a much less positive injury update, right-hander Keynan Middleton will be shut down for 10 days as he nurses a forearm strain in his pitching arm (first reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). While Gray was the Cardinals’ biggest free agent acquisition for the rotation, Middleton was their biggest free agent acquisition for the bullpen. As Marmol told Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, this “will obviously set [Middleton] back several weeks,” essentially guaranteeing that he will start the year on the IL. According to Katie Woo of The Athletic, St. Louis plans to be without the righty for at least the first two weeks of the season.
Middleton was a strong middle reliever for the White Sox and Yankees last year, pitching 50 2/3 innings and putting up a 3.38 ERA. He has spent time on the IL in almost every season of his career, and 2023 was no exception; he missed most of September with a shoulder injury. Still, his 51 appearances were his most in a season since his 2017 rookie campaign. He also posted a career-high 30.2% strikeout rate (his previous career average was 22.1%), a career-high 56.6% groundball rate (his previous career average was 32.9%), and ranked among the top 10% of pitchers in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. As a result, he finished with a 3.71 xERA, the lowest of his career.
While the Cardinals will hope Middleton doesn’t miss too much of the regular season, they will have to consider new bullpen options in his place. Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge, and JoJo Romero are locks for the Opening Day roster, while Andre Pallante is a safe bet as well. After those five names, Denton mentions Riley O’Brien, Nick Robertson, and Rule 5 draft selection Ryan Fernandez as contenders for the final three spots in the ‘pen. Woo suggests the team has also considered a six-man rotation, which would mean running with a seven-man bullpen.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals have a decision to make in center field. As Tommy Edman continues to deal with pain in his wrist after offseason surgery, he will not be on the Opening Day roster. Dylan Carlson might have seemed like the obvious choice to fill in for Edman, but Marmol told Denton that the starting job in center field is still up for grabs. Carlson is a contender, but so are prospects Victor Scott II and Michael Siani.
Scott is the No. 83 prospect in baseball, according to both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He boasts incredible speed and plays phenomenal center field defense. Siani has a similar skill set but doesn’t have the same upside, which could end up helping his case to win the job; the Cardinals will be less inclined to rush Scott to the major leagues. Siani also has an edge because he is already on the 40-man roster. Carlson has better offensive abilities than either of the rookies, but he’s coming off a disappointing season at the plate. Moreover, while he is a capable defensive outfielder, both Scott and Siani have elite defensive potential. If Marmol isn’t convinced Carlson can figure things out at the dish, he might prefer to prioritize defense up the middle.
NL Central Notes: Taillon, Cardinals, Grandal
Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has yet to make an in-game appearance this spring due to soreness in his calves. That was set to change today as he was poised to make his first start since camp began, though those plans were scuttled when the club scratched Taillon from his start earlier today.
As noted by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, manager Craig Counsell indicated to reporters that Taillon was dealing with lower back tightness and that the right-hander’s back “locked up” while throwing warm up pitches prior to his scheduled start, though there hasn’t been imaging scheduled for the right-hander and Counsell indicated the club hopes to know more about Taillon’s status tomorrow. Sharma goes on to note that the Cubs are hopeful the issue was just a spasm and that Taillon has dealt with a similar issue previously in his career and that it often subsides after just a few days. Though Chicago is remaining optimistic that the 32-year-old will be able to avoid a trip to the shelf to open the season, the right-hander missing time to open the season would be a blow to the club’s chances in a crowded NL Central division.
Taillon figures to occupy the middle of the club’s rotation this season alongside fellow veteran righty Kyle Hendricks, behind southpaws Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga. The fifth spot in the Cubs’ rotation has not yet been determined but appears likely to go to one of Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, and Hayden Wesneski as things stand. Taillon’s four-year deal with the Cubs got off to a rough start last season as he struggled to a 6.90 ERA in his first 13 starts with the club, though he settled in to provide mid-rotation results late in the season with a 3.57 ERA and 4.23 ERA across the season’s final three months. [UPDATE: Counsell told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters Sunday that Taillon “came in today pretty much the same as he left yesterday. Probably not the improvement we were hoping for.” While the manager admitted to “a level of concern for Opening Day,” Counsell doesn’t “think it’s a long-term absence for Jameson, so don’t think it’s one of those concerns.”]
More from around the NL Central…
- Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided a positive update regarding veteran righty Sonny Gray today, as noted by MLB.com’s John Denton. Marmol told reporters that Gray has been able to throw from 120 feet and do agility work without issue in recent days, and could progress to throwing off the mound sometime next week. The 34-year-old veteran is battling a mild hamstring strain that has put his odds of making a start for St. Louis on Opening Day in doubt. While Marmol’s comments regarding Gray today didn’t indicate whether or not the righty will be able to avoid opening the season on the injured list, it’s nonetheless encouraging news for Cardinals fans given the important of Gray to the club’s rotation this year. Gray signed with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal this winter on the heels of a strong 2023 season that saw him finish second to Gerrit Cole in AL Cy Young award voting on the back of a sterling 2.79 ERA in 32 starts.
- Sticking with the Cardinals, shortstop-turned-center fielder Tommy Edman recently spoke to reporters (including Denton) regarding his own injuries woes in the wake of reports that he is now doubtful for Opening Day due to wrist issues. It appears as though those concerns are justified, as Denton notes that the switch-hitting Edman has been unable to swing right-handed at all and has not been cleared to face live pitching from either side this spring. That being said, Denton adds that Edman expressed optimism regarding a recent diagnosis, which indicated that the pain in his wrist is “more inflammation than structural.” With fellow outfielder Lars Nootbaar‘s availability also questionable ahead of Opening Day, St. Louis appears likely to turn to one or both of Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson in the outfield alongside Jordan Walker to open the 2024 campaign.
- Pirates manager Derek Shelton spoke to reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) earlier today to announce that veteran catcher Yasmani Grandal is dealing with plantar fasciitis this spring, which has prevented him from catching over the past two weeks. With that said, Shelton appeared to be optimistic about Grandal’s status, noting that the veteran is expected to return to games in the near future. Grandal signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh last month and figures to feature prominently in the club’s catching mix, which also includes Henry Davis, Jason Delay, and Ali Sanchez among options currently on the 40-man roster. Grandal enters the 2024 season in search of a bounceback after struggling badly across his final two seasons with the White Sox, where he slashed just .219/.305/.306 in a combined 217 games.
Sonny Gray Diagnosed With Hamstring Strain, Could Open Season On Injured List
Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray has been diagnosed with a “mild” strain of his right hamstring, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced Tuesday morning (X link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). While Mozeliak called it “encouraging” news that Gray had dodged a more serious strain, he acknowledged that it could be “challenging” to get Gray ready for the beginning of the season and that Opening Day is now “in question” for the team’s top offseason acquisition.
Gray missed time with a pair of strains in this same hamstring as a member of the Twins back in 2022, though Mozeliak told reporters today that the team is confident this is less severe. It’s a mild enough issue that Mozeliak has already spoken out against the possibility of Gray’s injury spurring further additions on the starting staff (X link via John Denton of MLB.com).
“I definitely feel it’s not something that is required at this point,” Mozeliak said when asked about potentially bringing in some additional help for the rotation. “Obviously if something changes, we’d have to look at it differently, but we’re not thinking we’ll have to do anything now.”
The Cardinals haven’t spoken with the Boras Corporation about either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery recently, and a “mild” injury for Gray would’ve been an unlikely catalyst for such a major response anyhow. Mozeliak’s comments make it unlikely that remaining second-tier arms like Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger will be considered, though it’s possible the Cards could look to add some modest depth either via waivers or perhaps with a minor league deal for a veteran who’s amenable to a non-guaranteed pact.
With Gray presumably on the shelf to start the season, the Opening Day nod feels likelier to fall to veteran Miles Mikolas. He’d be followed by lefty Steven Matz and righties Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, both of whom signed a one-year contract in free agency this past offseason. (Matz is entering the third season of a four-year, $44MM free agent deal himself.) The top in-house options to step into the fifth starter spot, if needed, are lefties Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. Fellow southpaw Drew Rom made eight starts for the Cards last season but struggled to an ERA north of 8.00 in the process.
The Cardinals signed Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract this offseason and forfeited their second-highest draft pick as well as $500K of space from next year’s international bonus pool in order to do so. He’d already been tabbed the team’s Opening Day starter. Gray finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting last season after giving the Twins 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball through 32 starts. He fanned 24.3% of his opponents against a 7.3% walk rate.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, posted the fifth-worst ERA in baseball at 5.08 — a number that includes 21 starts from Montgomery (3.52 ERA) and 20 from Jack Flaherty (4.43 ERA) — both of whom were traded at the deadline. The trio of Gray, Gibson and Lynn was signed in large part to provide some stable veteran innings, though Gray obviously comes with a front-of-the-rotation ceiling as well. For now, his ability to lead the staff will be placed on hold, but if it’s a short enough absence there’ll still be time for Gray to perhaps make 30 starts for the Cards when all is said and done.
Sonny Gray Headed For MRI After Early Exit; Tommy Edman May Not Be Ready For Opening Day
Top Cardinals starter Sonny Gray exited today’s spring start with a trainer in the middle of an at-bat against Washington’s Nick Senzel. The team announced shortly afterward that Gray was experiencing tightness in his right hamstring. Gray declined to comment on the potential injury after exiting, instead stating that he wanted to talk to the team’s training staff and learn more about the issue before speaking with the media (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Gray missed roughly a month of the 2022 season with a strain in that same right hamstring as a member of the Twins back in 2022. Goold further tweets that Gray is headed for an MRI to determine the severity of the issue.
An absence of any real note would be a nightmare scenario for the Cardinals. While the Cards overhauled their rotation this winter, Gray is the lone front-of-the-rotation arm the team brought in. Lance Lynn isn’t far removed from posting high-end results himself, but he’s 36 years old and coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He, like fellow mid-30s veteran Kyle Gibson, was signed more as a durable source of innings than to be a clear playoff-caliber starter.
Gray, 34, is fresh off a Cy Young runner-up finish in the American League. He pitched 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball last season, fanning 24.3% of his opponents against a 7.3% walk rate. Gray’s 2.83 FIP was a near-identical match with his ERA, though metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize home run rate, were more bearish and pegged him in the mid- to upper-3.00s. Gray’s 5.2% homer-to-flyball ratio was less than half the 12.3% career mark he carried into the 2023 campaign. The Cardinals signed him for three years and a total of $75MM back in November. He’s slated to be joined by Gibson, Lynn, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas in one of the game’s oldest rotations.
Even if Gray can’t quite replicate his 2023 performance, he’s the clear top starter on that St. Louis staff. Were he to miss time, the drop-off between Gray and his replacement would be substantial. At present, the top options to step into the staff in his stead would presumably be lefties Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom. Righties Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are both on the 40-man roster as well, though neither has made his MLB debut yet.
The Cardinals, at least thus far, haven’t brought in any veteran big league starters on non-roster deals. That’s understandable, as most players open to that type of deal would take a look at the veteran rotation in St. Louis and see a lack of opportunity — but the lack of any proven depth could also be an issue in 2024, depending on how the rest of the staff holds up.
Gray isn’t the only key member of the Cardinals who’s facing some health-related uncertainty. Tommy Edman, formerly the team’s shortstop and now slated to serve as the Cardinals’ everyday center fielder, isn’t recovering from arthroscopic wrist surgery as swiftly as the team hoped. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that “internal concern is growing” that Edman might not be ready for Opening Day. Edman still hasn’t been cleared to face live pitching, Woo writes, and despite the fact that Opening Day is just over three weeks away, there’s not even a timetable for when that might happen.
Fourth outfielder Dylan Carlson would step into the starting job in center field if Edman is on the injured list to begin the season, per the report. Lars Nootbaar played plenty of center field last season, but perhaps if the plan is for him to play left field regularly when Edman is healthy this season, the team simply wants Nootbaar getting as many reps in that position as possible. Carlson’s role as a fourth outfielder would be cycling through all three spots anyhow.
Edman, 28, had a disappointing 2023 at the plate while playing through pain in that now surgically-repaired wrist for much of the season. The versatile switch-hitter spent nearly a month of the ’23 season on the injured list due to inflammation in that wrist, and when he was healthy his output at the plate dropped from .265/.324/.400 in 2022 (106 wRC+) to just .248/.307/.399 in 2023 (92 wRC+).
In the event that Edman indeed requires a stint on the injured list to begin the season, that’d open up a spot on the bench for the Cards. That wouldn’t necessarily need to be an outfielder, as utilityman Brendan Donovan is no stranger to the outfield, and as previously noted, Nootbaar can handle center field work as well. That said, an outfielder would be the most logical candidate. Lefty-swinging Michael Siani and Alec Burleson are both on the 40-man roster already and both have minor league options remaining. Siani is regarded as a plus defender in center field and would offer premium speed off the bench, while Burleson would be limited to first base and the corners but give the Cards some power that the bench currently lacks.