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Triston McKenzie

Injury Notes: McKenzie, Hernandez, Suarez

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Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie was shut down two weeks ago with a strain of the teres major muscle in his throwing shoulder. The club provided an update to reporters today, including Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal, relaying that McKenzie would start a throwing program this week. His ultimate return will depend on how that throwing program goes.

McKenzie had a tremendous breakout season last year, posting a 2.96 ERA over 191 1/3 innings, striking out 25.6% of opponents while walking just 5.9%. He also made two postseason starts for the Guards last year with a 3.27 ERA over 11 innings. He’ll be looking to build on that strong campaign but will have to get healthy first. The two-week shutdown period appears to have helped alleviate the injury, allowing him to start building towards a return.

Despite the recent injury, McKenzie was listed as one of several players the Guardians were trying to sign to extensions. In the end, they got a deal done with Andrés Giménez and Trevor Stephan but not McKenzie. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time after this season and is slated for free agency after 2026. Hunter Gaddis took over McKenzie’s rotation spot in the wake of the injury, with mixed results so far. He allowed four earned runs over 3 2/3 innings against the Mariners in his first outing, but then tossed six shutout innings against the A’s in his second turn.

Some other injury situations from around the majors…

  • Royals right-hander Carlos Hernández departed last night’s game accompanied by the trainer, as relayed by Anne Rogers of MLB.com, who noted that the issue appeared to be his hamstring. The hard-throwing Hernandez has averaged around 97 mph in his career thus far but has mixed results to show for it. He had a 3.68 ERA in 2021 but that number jumped to 7.39 last year. The latter figure was likely affected by some bad luck, given his .339 batting average on balls in play and 59.4% strand rate. He has started well here in 2023 with a 2.45 ERA in a small sample of 3 2/3 innings. The status of his health is still unclear at the moment, with updates surely to be revealed in the coming days.
  • Padres right-hander Robert Suarez began the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and doesn’t appear close to a return. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Suarez has had his progression slowed because he “felt something” while playing catch recently. It’s not certain what the issue is or how long Suarez will be delayed, but it’s not an ideal start to his new contract. After many years in Japan, Suarez played for the Padres last year and posted a 2.27 ERA while striking out 31.9% of batters faced. He opted out of his contract but re-signed with the Friars on an aggressive five-year, $46MM pact. With Suarez out of action, the club has been giving its high-leverage work to pitchers like Josh Hader, Luis Garcia and Steven Wilson.

Guardians Discussing Extensions With Multiple Players

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The Guardians are “in advanced negotiations” with multiple players on extensions, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic. It’s unclear which players are involved in those deep talks, but Meisel reports that the club has had at least some conversations with infielders Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario, outfielder Steven Kwan, as well as right-handers Triston McKenzie and Trevor Stephan.

It seems talks with Gimenez are particularly advanced, as he’s now reportedly finalizing a long-term deal with the Guards. It was already known that Cleveland has also discussed an extension with Rosario, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Talks with Kwan, McKenzie and Stephan are new developments, though hardly surprising given the quality of each young player and the fact that president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti recently indicated he had multiple irons in the fire on the extension front.

Kwan, 25, made his big league debut just last season and parlayed a terrific .298/.373/.400 batting line (124 wRC+) into a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. While he’s light on power (six home runs, .101 ISO), Kwan walked more often than he struck out (9.7% vs. 9.4%), swiped 19 bags in 24 tries (79.2%) and played exceptional defense in left field (21 Defensive Runs Saved, 10 Outs Above Average).

Cleveland already controls Kwan all the way through 2027,  his age-29 season, so any long-term deal would surely prolong his arrival on the open market by at least a year — and quite likely by multiple years. That’d put him in his early 30s by the time he could test free agency, but there’s surely some appeal in locking in an early payday, particularly given his relatively humble draft status (fifth-round pick, $185K signing bonus) and the fact that the arbitration system won’t reward his contact-and-defense skill set in the same way it would a prototypical slugging corner outfielder.

McKenzie’s extension status could potentially be impacted by recent injury troubles. The Guardians announced yesterday that he’s suffered a teres major strain and will be shut down from throwing for at least two weeks. An absence of as many as eight weeks in total is expected.

That’s an unequivocal blow to the Cleveland rotation, as the 25-year-old McKenzie made good on his former top prospect status in 2022 when he pitched 191 1/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball with a strong 25.6% strikeout rate against a similarly impressive 5.9% walk rate. Home runs were an issue for McKenzie early on, but over his final 17 starts he averaged just 0.73 long balls per nine frames, compiling a dominant 2.19 ERA along the way.

Cleveland has four more seasons of control over McKenzie, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2023 season. Currently, Blake Snell’s $50MM extension is the largest ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of Major League service time. (Although Spencer Strider topped that mark last summer when he had less than one full year of service.)

As a 27-year-old reliever, Stephan would be perhaps the riskiest but also surely the most affordable of this bunch. He won’t reach arbitration until next offseason but has quickly ascended from Rule 5 flier out of the Yankees’ system to a tried-and-true setup option for All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase.

Stephan had a solid rookie campaign, lasting the entire season in 2021 (and thus shedding his Rule 5 designation) while pitching 63 1/3 innings of 4.41 ERA ball. His command and bat-missing abilities took huge steps forward in 2022, evidenced by a 30.7% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. That helped Stephan break out with a shiny 2.69 ERA that was reinforced by a 2.19 FIP and 2.55 SIERA. He picked up 19 holds and three saves, and he’ll head into the 2023 season as one of the bullpen’s top high-leverage options.

Extensions for relief pitchers are rare in general — and that’s even more true of pitchers so early in their arbitration years. The Mariners managed to lock up Andres Munoz on a four-year, $7.5MM deal when he was at a comparable service point, but he was coming off Tommy John surgery and faced considerable health risks. Jose Leclerc inked a four-year, $14.75MM extension that contained a pair of club options. That might be a more apt comp for Stephan, but by that point he’d already taken over as the Rangers’ closer — a role that Stephan won’t be occupying in Cleveland thanks to the presence of Clase. Broadly speaking, there’s no great, recent parallel for a Stephan extension, though that hardly means he and the Guardians can’t hammer out an arrangement that’s appealing for both parties.

Triston McKenzie Shut Down For At Least Two Weeks With Teres Major Strain

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Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie has been diagnosed with a strain of the teres major muscle in his throwing shoulder, the club announced. He’ll be shut down from throwing for at least two weeks before being reevaluated. The club indicated he could be out of MLB action for as much as two months, though that seems to be at the more pessimistic end of the possible timetable.

McKenzie was yanked from yesterday’s Spring Training start after one inning because of arm discomfort. The club sent him for an MRI which revealed the strain that necessitates the shutdown. He’ll obviously open the season on the 15-day injured list, with his eventual timetable dictated by his reevaluation a couple weeks from now. Even if he’s cleared to resume throwing at first check, he’ll have to restart a throwing program and build his way back into game shape.

It’s an unfortunate blow for Cleveland a few days from the start of the season. McKenzie has somewhat quietly broken through as one of the sport’s most effective pitchers. He threw 191 1/3 innings over 31 appearances last year, pitching to a 2.96 ERA. The 6’5″ hurler punched out an above-average 25.6% of batters faced while keeping his walks down to a stellar 5.9% clip. He generated swinging strikes on a very strong 13% of his offerings.

McKenzie had been slated to team with Shane Bieber and Cal Quantrill to form an excellent trio at the front of the rotation. Bieber and Quantrill will likely be followed by Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, with the final rotation spot now a question. Righty Hunter Gaddis and left-hander Konnor Pilkington each made their MLB debuts last season and hold 40-man roster spots. They could battle for the fifth starter role in McKenzie’s absence, particularly with righty Cody Morris also on the shelf due to teres major soreness of his own.

AL Central Notes: Guardians, McKenzie, Twins, Shaw

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The Guardians appear to have mostly finalized their Opening Day roster, though president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti noted to reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com) that “there is some chance that we make an external acquisition, and if we do, that will affect the composition of our roster.”

Barring such an acquisition, however, it seems likely that Cleveland will open the season with three catchers on their roster, as both Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria appear set to make the team and back up starting catcher Mike Zunino. With multiple back-up options, the Guardians are hoping that Zunino will have a lighter workload in 2023 after missing the second half of the 2022 season due to surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. That comes at the expense of depth in the infield and outfield, however, as Gabriel Arias figures to be the sole infielder on the bench, with Will Brennan the sole outfielder. On the other hand, that should help both youngsters get additional playing time to aid their development. That’s particularly valuable for Arias, who played just 82 games last year between Triple-A and the majors after missing two months on the injured list last season.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Sticking with the Guardians, manager Terry Francona told reporters, including Bell, that right-hander Triston McKenzie was dealing with right arm tightness that led to him being pulled from his start today after just one inning. McKenzie figures to be a key cog at the front of Cleveland’s rotation this year after he posted a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings of work last season, so long as his current ailment doesn’t prove to be more serious than initially believed. In the event that McKenzie misses time, the club could look to a depth option like Konnor Pilkington or Jason Bilous to fill McKenzie’s spot in the rotation.
  • The Opening Day pitching staff in Minnesota came into further focus today, as the Twins optioned Bailey Ober to Triple-A, per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, following their decision to reassign Jeff Hoffman, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Ober figured to be pushed out of the rotation picture in Minnesota following the club’s acquisition of Pablo Lopez from the Marlins earlier this offseason, and will act as depth in Triple-A following an 11-start showing in 2022 where he posted a solid 3.21 ERA (120 ERA+) in 56 innings of work. Hoffman, meanwhile, signed a minor league deal with the Twins last month in order to compete for a long relief role i the Twins bullpen. Instead, right-hander Cole Sands seems poised to fill that role, leaving Hoffman to decide whether or not to make use of his opt-out clause this coming Tuesday.
  • Shortly after alerting him that he would not make their Opening Day roster, the White Sox announced that they had released right-hander Bryan Shaw from his minor league deal with the club. The veteran Shaw sports a 3.92 ERA in 714 2/3 innings of work during his career and is now poised to look for another club interested in his services for his age-35 season. Shaw made a strong case for himself this spring, pitching to a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 innings during camp.

Guardians Notes: Freeman, Arias, Extensions, Mikolajchak

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The Guardians announced Tuesday that they’ve optioned infield prospect Tyler Freeman to Triple-A Columbus. The former No. 71 overall pick and top-100 prospect made his big league debut last season but hit just .247/.314/.286 through his first 86 trips to the plate. That came on the heels of solid but still diminished production in his first run at Triple-A, where he slashed .279/.371/.364 on the season.

Freeman fits the Guardians contact-first archetype, drawing praise for a 60- or 70-grade hit tool on most scouting reports and fanning in just 9.3% of his Triple-A plate appearances to date. However, he’s also lacking in power and faced an uphill battle to make a roster where Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez have the middle infield locked down.

Add in a disappointing .147/.231/.147 showing in 39 plate appearances this spring, and the decision to option Freeman doesn’t come as much of a surprise. He’ll get another run through the Triple-A level and could still factor into the Cleveland infield before long; Rosario is a free agent following the season, though Freeman will have to contend with fellow prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio and Jose Tena for time in the Guards’ infield mix.

For now, with Arias remaining in camp, it appears he has the inside track on winning a utility job to begin the season. The 23-year-old is seen as a true option at shortstop but has more swing-and-miss issues than most Guardians hitters and hasn’t drawn walks at a particularly high clip in the minors. Arias slashed .240/.310/.406 in Triple-A last season but stumbled with a .191/.321/.319 showing in a tiny sample of 57 big league plate appearances during last summer’s debut. He’s had a big spring showing (.350/.395/.425, 43 plate appearances), and given the strength of his glove, he’s a natural candidate to fill a utility role in the infield, where he can sub in at multiple positions.

While sorting out the bench is a key process for Cleveland decision-makers this spring, the amount of emphasis on who breaks camp with the team can often be overstated. In all likelihood, Freeman will get his share of chances this season, as will Arias, Richie Palacios and others. Injuries are inevitable, and being left off the Opening Day roster is no more a signal that a player will spend all season in the minors than making the Opening Day squad is a free ticket to a full year of service time.

A greater priority for the front office could be trying to lock down some long-term deals with key young players. Jason Lloyd of The Athletic asked president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti about this very topic recently, and while Antonetti obviously wouldn’t delve into specifics, he somewhat “coyly” expressed optimism about getting at least one such contract worked out. Antonetti’s comments don’t necessarily mean a deal is likely, but they’re at least an ostensible acknowledgement that the club has been having conversations with some of its young core. Lloyd speculatively suggests that left fielder Steven Kwan, right-hander Triston McKenzie and Gimenez are the likeliest candidates for such a deal, but it’s not clear whether substantive negotiations have occurred with any of those three, specifically.

That said, extensions for the Guardians were a huge point of emphasis this time last season. Beyond locking up superstar Jose Ramirez on a long-term deal that could keep him in Cleveland for the majority of his career, Antonetti & Co. worked out five-year deals with center fielder Myles Straw and closer Emmanuel Clase in the days leading up to Opening Day 2022.

There’s also one unfortunate health update out of Guardians camp this morning. Manager Terry Francona revealed this morning that right-handed relief prospect Nick Mikolajchak has been diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow (Twitter link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Francona didn’t provide a specific grade of strain or a treatment plan, as the team is still gathering information and determining the next steps for the 25-year-old righty.

Mikolajchak had a huge 2021 season in Double-A, where he pitched to a 3.18 ERA with a gaudy 35.8% strikeout rate against a 5.7% walk rate. FanGraphs’  Eric Longenhagen noted this spring that a late-2021 shoulder injury might’ve impacted Mikolajchak in 2022, when his velocity was down and his walk rate was up — though he still pitched to a sharp 3.04 ERA in his first stint at the Triple-A level. Francona offered praise for the 2019 eleventh-rounder’s spring performance, when he posted 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball with six hits, one walk and four strikeouts.

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

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One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

Every Team’s Initial September Callups

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The limit on active roster players expanded from 26 to 28 today, as the calendar flipped to September. Every team announced at least two additions to the big league club (some teams made three or more due to injured list placements). Here’s a recap of today’s spate of transactions:

Indians Place Triston McKenzie On Injured List

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The Indians have placed right-hander Triston McKenzie on the 10-day injured list due to shoulder fatigue and recalled left-hander Logan Allen from Triple-A Columbus, tweets Mandy Bell of MLB.com.

Cleveland’s chances at a postseason run are more or less nonexistent at this point, but it’s still a troubling development for one of the organization’s most promising young arms. The 24-year-old McKenzie was rocked during his first run with the big league club in 2021, but upon returning from the minors in early July, he looked like a different pitcher entirely.

Over his past eight starts, the former No. 42 overall draft pick has tallied 49 innings with a 3.49 ERA, a 25.8 percent strikeout rate and a 4.3 percent walk rate. His four most recent outings have been particularly dominant, as he’s held opponents to just six runs on a dozen hits and two walks with 28 strikeouts in 28 innings (1.93 ERA). Overall, McKenzie has pitched in 27 big league games dating back to 2020 and put together a 4.40 ERA through his first 124 2/3 innings. He’s clearly trending upward right now, so any mention of shoulder problems is worrisome.

The team hasn’t provided a timeline for McKenzie’s absence, but given the lack of 2021 postseason aspirations, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Indians take a cautious approach to the situation. McKenzie, at this point, looks like a favorite to be penciled into next year’s rotation alongside Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac and Cal Quantrill.

For now, he’ll be replaced by the 24-year-old Allen, who is hoping to finish what has been a nightmarish season both in the Majors and in Triple-A on a high note. Allen has allowed 23 earned runs in 22 2/3 Major League innings so far in 2021, and he’s been tagged for 43 runs in 48 2/3 frames of Triple-A ball. He’s long been considered a fairly promising arm, however, and his past several games in Columbus have been trending in the right direction. Through his past five starts (28 2/3 innings), he’s worked to a 4.08 ERA with 35 punchouts against 13 walks.

Indians Activate Zach Plesac

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The Indians are reinstating right-hander Zach Plesac from the 10-day injured list to start this evening’s game against the Royals, the team informed reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Righty J.C. Mejia was optioned to Triple-A Columbus to create active roster space.

Plesac has missed about a month and a half since suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right thumb in late May. Before the injury, the 26-year-old had tossed 58 2/3 innings of 4.14 ERA/4.50 SIERA ball over his first ten starts. That’s a step back from the sterling 2.28 ERA/3.41 SIERA he pitched to over 55 1/3 frames in 2020, but it’s still solid production.

Cleveland hasn’t gotten much decent work from the starting staff in recent weeks. The Indians lost Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale to IL stints of their own after Plesac went down, leaving them relying on an unproven rotation. Over the past month, Indians starters have pitched to a woeful 7.16 ERA that bests only the Orioles rotation (8.40). That’s contributed to a significant drop in the standings, as the Indians are amidst a nine-game losing streak that has knocked them back to .500 (42-42), eight games behind the division-leading White Sox.

Mejia has been a big part of those struggles. Over his seven starts, the 24-year-old has given up 25 runs in 25 1/3 innings. It has also been a difficult season for Triston McKenzie, who has walked 20.6% of opposing hitters en route to a 6.38 ERA. That led the Indians to option McKenzie last month, but he’ll be recalled to start tomorrow evening’s game, relays Zack Meisel of the Athletic (Twitter link).

Indians Option Triston McKenzie To Triple-A

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The Indians sent right-hander Triston McKenzie to Triple-A Columbus, as originally noted on MLB.com’s transactions page and confirmed by multiple reporters.  Right-hander Kyle Nelson was called up to take the open spot on the active roster.

Selected 42nd overall in the 2015 draft, McKenzie has been a fixture on top-100 prospect list for the last few years, even though forearm and shoulder injuries sidelined him for all of the 2019 season.  As a result, this will be McKenzie’s first appearance in Triple-A baseball, after pitching 90 2/3 innings at the Double-A level in 2018.

The Tribe saw enough in McKenzie at their alternate training site last season to promote him to the big leagues without the benefit of any Triple-A time, and McKenzie made an immediate impression.  He posted a 3.24 ERA and a strong 33.1% strikeout rate in his first 33 1/3 career innings, and it seemed like he was on his way to becoming Cleveland’s latest homegrown pitching star.

While McKenzie’s future is still bright, the 2021 season has been a speed bump.  McKenzie has a 6.89 ERA over 31 1/3 innings, still with a big strikeout rate (30.6%) but not much else positive within his metrics.  The 23-year-old has among the worst hard-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball, and his garish 20.8% walk rate is the highest of any hurler in baseball with at least 30 innings pitched.

The extreme control problems are unusual, since McKenzie had very solid and even above-average walk rate during his minor league career.  It’s possible the numbers could just be an aberration, though the Tribe will let him work things out at Triple-A rather than risk more struggles at the big league level.

For taking over McKenzie’s rotation spot, Logan Allen might be the easiest choice to fill in, though he has also struggled over five starts with the Tribe this season.  Jean Carlos Mejia or Cal Quantrill could be stretched out as starters, or Eli Morgan or Scott Moss might be options at Triple-A.

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