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Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.

The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.

Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals

The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.

Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros

Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.

Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians

Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.

Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians

After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.

Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers

The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.

What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)

Roster Notes: Ramirez, Rondon, Robles, Brinson

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Red Sox skipper John Farrell says that DH/first baseman Hanley Ramirez underwent an MRI on his left biceps, as Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. A diagnosis and anticipated course of treatment aren’t yet available, but Abraham suggests the team is anticipating some absence from the veteran. The 33-year-old Ramirez has fallen off at the plate this year, slashing just .238/.320/.423 over his 522 plate appearances, with a shoulder problem seemingly bothering him throughout. The club surely hoped for a turnaround for the long-time slugger, but now there’s increasing uncertainty with this new injury.

Here are some other notes on injuries and other considerations that could impact postseason rosters:

  • Cubs righty Hector Rondon is in need of some rest but doesn’t have anything more than a sore elbow, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. He’s expected to miss about a week after getting a cortisone shot. Rondon has scuffled a bit this year, working to a 4.50 ERA in his 54 frames, due in no small part to coughing up ten long balls. That said, Rondon has also managed 10.8 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 and remains an important part of the Cubs pen down the stretch and (the team hopes) into the postseason.
  • As the Nationals continue to consider their options for the postseason roster, young outfielder Victor Robles is receiving real consideration, manager Dusty Baker tells reporters including Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (Twitter link). The 20-year-old was something of an unexpected call-up, but is off to a hot start … in just ten plate appearances. There’s a long way to go until the Nats will feel comfortable entrusting a significant role to him when the stakes are highest, but it’s interesting to see that there’s real internal consideration given the team’s rather lengthy list of possible bench pieces. One major factor, of course, will be whether Bryce Harper can make it back; recent indications are that the team is cautiously optimistic.
  • There’s little more than an “outside” shot for Brewers outfielder Lewis Brinson to make it back to health in time to impact the current season, per GM David Stearns (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, on Twitter). He has been down with a hamstring strain. The 23-year-old struggled upon reaching the majors for the first time this year, but had put up a monster season at Triple-A — where he batted .331/.400/.562 across 340 plate appearances. Brinson will surely be a big part of Milwaukee’s plans next year even if he can’t make it back on the field in 2017.

Nationals Promote Victor Robles

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1:58pm: Washington has announced the move. Outfielders Rafael Bautista and Andrew Stevenson will accompany Robles to the majors after receiving some MLB time earlier, which will leave the club with an abundance of outfield possibilities over the next few weeks.

The Nats moved righty Erick Fedde to the 60-day DL to clear the needed roster space. Washington decided to give Robles a chance when Goodwin suffered a setback, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets.

1:20pm: In a surprise move, the Nationals will promote top outfield prospect Victor Robles, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). He’ll require a 40-man roster spot when the move is formalized.

Robles, who’s still just twenty years of age, has yet to play above the Double-A level. But the Dominican native, who signed for only $225K back in 2013, is widely regarded as one of the game’s ten or so best overall prospects, with scouts widely praising his across-the-board gifts.

Certainly, Robles has done nothing this year to detract from that lofty status. He continued to produce after earning a promotion to the penultimate level of the minors after opening the year at High-A. Through 496 total plate appearances on the season, Robles carries a .300/.382/.493 batting line with ten home runs and 27 steals.

Notably, Robles did not need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft over the coming offseason, so he would not have needed a 40-man spot this winter. And the Nats have little need for an extra player over the final weeks of the season with a division title almost secured already, which hints at other motives.

The move seemingly suggests, rather, that Robles is expected to factor in the team’s plans for the near future. While it’d rate as a surprise were he to play his way onto the postseason roster this season, perhaps that can’t be ruled out. With Jayson Werth set to reach free agency at the end of the year, it’s also conceivable that Robles could stake a claim to a job for 2018.

Perhaps the likeliest scenario, though, would be for Robles to follow the path of Trea Turner, who returned to the minors to open the 2016 season after getting his first cup of coffee in 2015. Robles has spent most of his professional career in center field, making him an ideal fit for the near-future Nats roster. While the club will expect Adam Eaton to be fully healthy in 2018, he’s best utilized in a corner spot. Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin could make for a solid platoon pairing in center if they can sustain some of the strides they’ve shown this year, so there shouldn’t be too much immediate pressure on Robles to prove himself a permanent fixture, but nobody would complain if the young phenom forces the team’s hand.

Sonny Gray Trade Rumors: Thursday

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11:03pm: Gray’s market is still in flux, with Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reporting that the Yankees are balking at the A’s requests for a package centered around Clint Frazier or Gleyber Torres. Even if Oakland checks down to some of the Yanks’ next tier of prospects, such as Estevan Florial, it seems that New York will remain reluctant to pull the trigger on Gray — though the club has seemingly focused on him to this point.

In his own look at the market for Gray, Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network says the Astros and Brewers are “not significantly involved” at present. He notes, too, that the Padres’ interest may be more serious than has previously been thought.

9:33am: Rosenthal now tweets that the Nationals are not, in fact, in on either Gray or Rangers ace Yu Darvish. Rather, the team might simply elect to pursue another reliever to further boost the back of the bullpen.

12:00am: Earlier tonight, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that rival clubs believe that most teams have informed the Athletics which centerpieces they’re willing to part with in a potential trade for right-hander with Sonny Gray, adding that the Yankees are believed to be the front-runners. According to Sherman, many expect that the A’s will deal Gray before this Sunday’s scheduled start against the Twins.

Though the Yankees are the perceived front-runner, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that both the Nationals and Mariners have some interest in Gray, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear. MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Mariners and A’s haven’t touched base on Gray in about a week, though multiple rivals from around the game believe that ever-active GM Jerry Dipoto will find a way to make a competitive bid despite a thin farm system.

Rosenthal outlines a speculative scenario in which the M’s could pair a big league outfielder with top prospect Kyle Lewis (among other pieces), then pivot to acquire a new corner outfielder in what is currently a buyers’ market for short-term corner bats. (Rosenthal’s column has multiple quotes on Dipoto’s whirlwind style of trading, including one unnamed exec opining: “I don’t think he’s burning [the farm system] to the ground. I think he knows it’s already on fire and is trying to do what he can with the assets he has.” It’s well worth a full look.)

As for the Nats, Rosenthal reports that a deal could hinge on whether the Nats would part with prized prospect Victor Robles in a deal (Twitter links). Some in the Nationals’ organization now value fellow outfield prospect Juan Soto over Robles, though that hardly suggests that Washington has soured on Robles or given up on him in any way.

Sherman suggests that one factor working in favor of the Yankees is that some believe the Astros to be the team most willing to roll the dice on Orioles’ closer Zach Britton, which could take some of their focus off Gray. Sherman notes that the Astros do still have some trepidation about the various red flags surrounding Britton this year (injuries, lack of appearances on consecutive days, etc.). Houston GM Jeff Luhnow again emphasized to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick today, however, that he doesn’t feel obligated to overpay for any addition given the team’s significant lead in the American League West. “We have a pretty good team, and if we can improve it without giving up too much of our future, we will,” said Luhnow.

Pitching Market Rumors: Ramos, Wilson, Lynn, Reed

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With David Phelps now officially a Seattle Mariner, the Marlins could look to make AJ Ramos the next piece they deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that while the Fish had about 10 teams express interest in Phelps, they currently have three teams expressing serious interest in Ramos. One of those clubs appears to be the Rays, as FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Tampa Bay is among the clubs with interest in the Miami closer. Ramos has also been linked to the Rockies, and was previously linked to the Yankees and Nationals before each of those clubs acquired two relievers in a single trade. (Though the New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweets that the Yankees never had any interest in him.)

Some more rumblings pertaining to the pitching market…

  • While the Nationals are in on Tigers left-hander Justin Wilson, they won’t part with top prospects Victor Robles, Juan Soto or Erick Fedde in a trade to acquire him, tweets MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal. Per Rosenthal, the Red Sox, Dodgers and Astros are all still in the mix for Wilson. Heyman tweets that the Rays are still looking at Wilson, to whom they were linked earlier this week, but at this point it seems that other teams are likelier to land him. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, meanwhile, adds the Brewers to the substantial group of teams looking into Wilson (Twitter link).
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Royals are closely monitoring Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn to see if St. Louis makes him available between now and the deadline. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that the Royals are looking around for not one but two rental starters to try to make one last run with their current core, and as a free agent at season’s end, Lynn would fit that mold. If the Royals are indeed watching, they probably didn’t mind what they saw today when Lynn tossed six innings of one-run ball against the Mets, though he did allow his 21st homer of the season, which is already far and away a career-high.
  • Newsday’s Marc Carig and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick both hear that Addison Reed is drawing the most interest among Mets trade chips, though Carig notes that there’s nothing close to being completed at this time (Twitter links). The rumor circuit on Reed has been surprisingly quiet, though he’s been linked to the Yankees and Red Sox thus far. The 28-year-old Reed has tossed 45 excellent innings out of the New York bullpen, averaging 9.4 K/9 against a ridiculous 1.00 BB/9 with a 38.8 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.40 ERA. He’s logged a 2.02 ERA in 138 innings as a Met and is earning $7.8MM this season.

Agency Changes: Delgado, Ramirez, Robles, Polanco

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Here at MLBTR we do our best to cover notable agency changes while keeping tabs on player representation through our Agency Database. Here are a few recent moves:

  • D-backs right-hander has hired Dan Lozano of MVP Sports as his new representative, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman as part of his weekly NL Notes column. Once one of baseball’s top prospects, Delgado didn’t pan out as a starter but has become a solid piece in the Arizona bullpen in recent years. He’s made four starts this year and fared nicely, but he’s back in the ’pen and is on his way to perhaps his best season. Through 51 2/3 innings, Delgado has a 3.48 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. Delgado, 27, is controllable for one more year before hitting the open market after the 2018 campaign.

Earlier Notes

  • Indians utilityman extraordinaire Jose Ramirez will move his representation to the Wasserman Media Group, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. It seems that Ramirez is sticking with agent Rafa Nieves, who just joined Wasserman. Ramirez has only just embarked upon a new, four-year deal with Cleveland that was inked late in Spring Training. With two options included, the contract covers all of Ramirez’s potential arbitration eligibility and allows the organization to control the switch-hitting 24-year-old through his age-31 season. He had earned the deal after a strong 2016 season, but his stock has risen yet further after opening the 2017 campaign with a .322/.376/.557 slash through 290 plate appearances. Notably, Ramirez has already swatted 11 long balls, matching last year’s tally in less than half the trips to the plate.
  • Also moving to Wasserman is top Nationals prospect Victor Robles. Though he only just reached his twentieth birthday and hasn’t yet reached the upper minors, Robles received consensus top-ten leaguewide prospect billing  entering the current season. He hasn’t disappointed, slashing .296/.393/.505 with six home runs and 13 steals through 233 plate appearances at the High-A level. While it seems unlikely that Robles will make it to D.C. before the 2018 season, he could be a foundational piece for the organization.
  • Meanwhile, Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco will take his business to Octagon and agent Ulises Cabrera, according to 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson (via Twitter). The 23-year-old switch-hitter entered the current season with 105 days of MLB service, meaning he won’t be able to qualify for arbitration until at least 2020 and can’t qualify for free agency until 2023. Polanco was a highly regarded prospect who raised expectations with a solid performance in his first extended MLB stint last year. He has struggled thus far in 2017, though, with a .242/.294/.338 batting line through 219 plate appearances.

Heyman’s Latest: Nationals, Alvarez, Cubs, CarGo, Yankees, Colome

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The latest notes column from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports kicks off with an extremely early look at the potential market for Bryce Harper in two years, with Heyman listing the Yankees, Nationals and Phillies as teams that many within the industry think will vie for the 2015 NL MVP in free agency. The in-depth look at Harper focuses on the 24-year-old’s improved clubhouse demeanor and maturity in recent years and also adds more fuel to the rumors that Harper played part of the 2016 season through a shoulder injury that he’s reluctant to discuss. Heyman also touches base on Derek Norris later in the column, noting that there may be a better chance that Norris is simply released than traded. Washington agreed to a $4.25MM salary with Norris to avoid arbitration, but because arb contracts aren’t fully guaranteed, they could cut Norris before March 15 and only pay him 30 days termination pay — about $688K, by my math.

Some highlights from a lengthy look at all 30 teams around the league…

  • Pedro Alvarez still has fans in the Orioles’ front office, per Heyman, but there’s been “no evidence” of renewed contact between the two sides. The Twins talked to Alvarez’s camp at one point but haven’t been in touch recently, and while Rangers manager Jeff Banister is fond of Alvarez dating back to the pair’s days in Pittsburgh, there’s nothing to suggest the two sides could strike a deal.
  • The Cubs met with Scott Boras recently and discussed Jake Arrieta, but there was “no traction” in talks between the two sides. Heyman paints a similar picture to the one that has surrounded extension rumors with Arrieta for the past several months; the Cubs would be amenable to a three- or four-year deal, but Arrieta and Boras are targeting something more along the lines of Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract. Heyman also notes that the Cubs made a play for right-hander Brad Ziegler this winter before he inked a two-year deal with the Marlins.
  • Extension talks between the Rockies and Carlos Gonzalez are “on hold” for the time being. The team tried to explore talks with Gonzalez (another Boras client) recently, but with free agency just a few months away, hammering out a new deal has long seemed unlikely (and, I’d argue, unnecessary from the Rockies’ vantage point, given the plethora of outfield options in Denver).
  • After spending a combined $99MM on Matt Holliday and Aroldis Chapman at the Winter Meetings in early December, Yankees GM Brian Cashman was told he only had $4MM to work with over the remainder of the winter, Heyman reports. That level of cash prevented the Yanks from luring targets like Travis Wood and Jerry Blevins to the Bronx but did prove to be enough to buy Chris Carter (and perhaps Jon Niese, who inked a minor league deal). Cashman also tells Heyman that he did receive trade offers for Brett Gardner, but the offers simply weren’t enticing.
  • Rays closer Alex Colome was oft-rumored to have drawn trade interest last summer and earlier this offseason, though Heyman writes that the Nationals wouldn’t part with top outfield prospect Victor Robles in order to acquire him. Colome was outstanding in his first season in the ninth inning last year, logging 56 2/3 innings with a 1.91 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent ground-ball rate. The 28-year-old hasn’t even reached arbitration yet and is controllable through the 2020 season, so if he does eventually emerge as a potential trade chip, the asking price from the Tampa Bay front office would likely be deemed exorbitant by many clubs.

Pirates, Nationals Discussed McCutchen Trade That Involved Giolito, Dunning

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Before the Nationals acquired Adam Eaton from the White Sox, the Pirates nearly traded Andrew McCutchen to Washington for Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning and a third player, Jon Heyman of FanRag writes (Twitter links). The Pirates now expect to keep McCutchen, who will be at PirateFest in Pittsburgh Saturday. They will also move McCutchen from center field to a corner outfield spot.

Giolito and Dunning, of course, formed two-thirds of the White Sox’ return for Eaton, with another pitcher, Reynaldo Lopez, also heading Chicago’s way. The possibility of the Pirates dealing McCutchen to the Nationals had loomed for the past several weeks, although it became clear yesterday that the Nationals would not trade top outfield prospect Victor Robles for McCutchen or anyone else who wasn’t Chris Sale, who the Nats had just lost out on. It’s unclear whether Robles’ absence from the deal was the reason the McCutchen trade never happened, however.

 

Nationals Offered Victor Robles, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez In Chris Sale Bid

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The Nationals were outbid by the Red Sox in their attempt to acquire Chris Sale, but that wasn’t for lack of trying, as Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Remarkably, the Nationals were willing to deal outfielder Victor Robles and both their top young starting pitching prospects, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, for Sale. But the White Sox instead opted for the Red Sox’ incredible offer, topped by Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech.

Robles, Giolito and Lopez are the Nationals’ top three prospects, according to MLB.com. All three of them rank among the top 40 in baseball and Robles and Giolito rank among the top ten. Robles has earned praise as a five-tool talent with good hitting ability and exceptional speed. Both Giolito and Lopez could make an immediate impact in a big-league rotation, and all three players have enormous upside once they reach the big leagues for good. That the White Sox were able to get one offer this good is incredible in its own right; that they had to leave it on the table because they found one they liked better is even more so.

Now that Sale is off the table, the Nationals are no longer willing to deal Robles, Chelsea Janes of the Post tweets. But the Nats could very well still pursue Andrew McCutchen, according to Svrluga. What that might take is unclear, as Robles is the name that has most frequently arisen as a possible Pirates acquisition in a potential McCutchen deal. The Pirates could perhaps continue to pursue the trade, hoping to land a package of young pitching headed by a player like Lopez or Joe Ross, whose names have both arisen in reporting about the potential swap.

Nationals, White Sox Have “Legitimate Chance” At Finalizing Chris Sale Trade

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8:59pm: The White Sox are still discussing Sale with other teams apart from Washington and a deal with anyone isn’t expected tonight, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  An executive on another Sale suitor believes that the Nationals have an 80-20 shot of acquiring the southpaw, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link), while FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman writes that “The Nationals have a clear lead over other teams” in the hunt for Sale’s services.

8:28pm: The White Sox and Nationals continue to be in talks about ace lefty Chris Sale, with FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reporting (Twitter link) that there is a “legitimate chance” of a deal between the two sides.  Talks appear to be rather advanced, as Rosenthal says the two sides have the “final pieces” to be worked out.  The trade would involve top Nats prospects Lucas Giolito and Victor Robles as part of the return package headed to Chicago.

Giolito’s name was reportedly included in talks between the two sides earlier today, and while the Nats heavily value both he and Robles (D.C. turned down sending both to Pittsburgh for Andrew McCutchen), Washington’s willingness to include its two best non-Trea Turner trade chips is likely what has attracted Chicago’s attention.

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