Will Harris: Overlooked Free Agent?
For the most part, the upper end of the free-agent relief market emptied out quickly this offseason. Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, Will Smith and Chris Martin signed with the Braves, Drew Pomeranz reunited with the Padres, and Dellin Betances switched from the Yanks to the crosstown rival Mets. Now, going by the contract predictions MLBTR made at the beginning of the offseason, former Astros right-hander Will Harris looks like the No. 1 reliever left on a board that also includes Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen near the top of a shrinking class. We called for a two-year, $18MM payday for Harris, and although that still seems reasonable, he hasn’t generated much public attention this winter.
Almost two months since free agency opened, just one team – Minnesota – has come up as a rumored suitor for Harris. There could be unreported clubs chasing Harris, though it’s surprising that there hasn’t been more speculation centering on the 35-year-old. After all, since his 2013 breakout with the Diamondbacks, not many relievers have been more productive. Going back to then, Harris has pitched to a 2.59 ERA/2.97 FIP with 9.58 K/9, 2.28 BB/9 and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 378 2/3 innings.
There was no let-up last season for Harris, who posted a career-best 1.50 ERA in 60 frames. Judging relievers by ERA is dangerous, granted, and Harris was fortunate to prevent runs at such a stingy rate. But the rest of his numbers were also quite impressive, as he managed a 3.15 FIP/3.04 xFIP/3.18 SIERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate.
Altough Harris didn’t blow anyone away with his cutter-curve mix, both pitches were among the best of their kind, according to FanGraphs. Excellent spin rates had something to do with it. Harris ranked in the game’s 96th percentile in fastball spin and in its 86th percentile with the curve, per Statcast. Hitters had immense difficulty squaring up either offering, as shown by the lack of damaging contact Harris surrendered. He finished in the majors’ 84th percentile in hard-hit rate and in the 89th percentile in expected weighted on-base average against.
Once the playoffs rolled around, Harris’ lights-out performance continued. It’s true the Nationals did get the better of Harris in their Game 6 and 7 World Series wins over Houston, which wasn’t the way he wanted to go out last season. Still, Harris concluded the postseason with 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball, striking out 11 and issuing just one walk along the way.
Harris undoubtedly made a strong case for a quality payday throughout the year, but with 2019 about to turn to 2020, he remains on the market. Youth isn’t on Harris’ side, of course, and he doesn’t carry much experience as a closer. Those factors could be scaring off some teams, but as a hurler who has averaged 50-plus innings of terrific results for the past seven seasons, he has established himself as a high-end setup man. Perhaps Harris will be paid accordingly when the new year arrives.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins Looking At Top Free Agent Relievers
Even as they continue to press for rotation improvements, the Twins are exploring options at the top of the market for relief pitching. It seems the team is casting an exceptionally wide net, per reports from Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter) and Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News (Twitter link).
To this point, the Twins have already been rumored to be pursuing a reunion with sturdy veteran Sergio Romo — albeit perhaps not quite as enthusiastically as some other teams — while also joining a crowded group with interest in bounceback target Blake Treinen. Other candidates of each ilk have now been identified.
The Minnesota organization has looked into free agents Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek, and Will Harris, according to Wolfson. That trio landed in our ranking of the top 50 free agents, with each prognosticated to secure a two-year pact with a guarantee of $10MM or more. They’re arguably a tier up from Romo on the market, though all of essentially the same subclass — veteran righty relievers with ample late-inning experience coming off of productive seasons.
Treinen is a much higher-variance hurler. When he was non-tendered, he joined a bounceback market led by Dellin Betances, who is hoping to return to form after an injury-ruined 2019 season. The Twins are at least giving internal consideration to pursuing Betances. It’s a bit of a dice roll since we don’t yet know whether he’ll be at peak physical form, but a single-season gamble on the high-octane hurler would seem to suit the Twins rather well.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed at 1pm ET yesterday, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track today’s minor settlements from the American League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.
It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.
As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…
Today’s Updates
- Yankees 1B Greg Bird will make $1.2 MM next season, per Bob Nightengale on Twitter.
- The controversial Roberto Osuna will make $6.5MM next season, per Feinsand. Teammate Jake Marisnick, who again scuffled in ’18 after a promising 2017, will make $2.2125MM.
- Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter, A’s lefty Sean Manaea $3.15MM in what’s sure to be an injury-marred 2019.
- Hard-throwing reliever Mychal Givens will make $2.15MM, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), with additional incentives for making the All-Star team or placing in the Top-3 for the Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of the Year Awards, added MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
- The Mariners agreed on a $1.95MM deal with outfielder Domingo Santana, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Santana is the second and last of the Mariners’ arbitration-eligible players.
- The Angels agreed to contracts with a pair of players yesterday, per Maria Torres of the LA Times (via Twitter). Reliever Hansel Robles signed for $1.4MM. Robles threw 36 1/3 innings of 2.97 ERA baseball after the Angels claimed him off waivers from the Mets in June. Luis Garcia, acquired via trade from the Phillies this winter, signed for $1.675MM.
- The Tigers and reliever Shane Greene settled on $4MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
- The Yankees reached an agreement with Sonny Gray for $7.5MM, per Nightengale. Gray, of course, has been involved trade rumors most of the winter, but for the time being, he stands to play a role in the Yankee pen while providing insurance for the rotation.
- Didi Gregorius has also come to an agreement with the Yankees on a one-year, $11.75MM deal in his final season before free agency, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).
- New Yankee James Paxton signed for $8.575, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Paxton is under contract for the 2020 season as well.
- The Houston Astros came to an agreement with Collin McHugh for $5.8MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). McHugh could be moving back into the rotation after a stellar season in the pen, either way this will be his final season of arb eligibility before hitting the open market.
- Jonathan Villar comes away with $4.825MM for what will be his first full season in Baltimore, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
Earlier Updates
Astros To Decline Option On Will Harris
The Astros have declined their club option on right-handed reliever Will Harris, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (via Twitter). Harris’ option would’ve paid him $5.5MM had it been exercised. He won’t become a free agent, however, as he has not yet reached six year of Major League service time. As such, Harris will remain under Astros control as an arbitration-eligible player. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at a $3.6MM salary for the coming season, so it’s not surprising to see the ‘Stros decline an option that would’ve paid him a considerably larger sum.
The 34-year-old Harris still seems like a safe bet to return to the ‘Stros in 2019 — albeit at a lower rate. Like Collin McHugh before him, Harris was a scrapheap pickup off the waiver wire who found great success upon landing in Houston. In four seasons with the Astros, he’s pitched to a 2.58 ERA in 237 innings and averaged 9.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 along the way.
His performance took a step backward in 2018, though looking past his still-solid 3.49 ERA, Harris’ 10.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.48 HR/9, 49.7 percent ground-ball rate, 13.8 percent swinging-strike rate and 34.6 percent chase rate on out-of-zone pitches were all legitimately excellent.
If and when the Astros do tender Harris a contract for the 2019 campaign, he’ll go through the arbitration process this winter and then become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 campaign.
AL West Notes: Correa, McCullers, Servais, Profar
Both Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers are headed out on minor league rehab assignments this week. Correa told reporters that he’s going to Triple-A Fresno tomorrow to begin his rehab assignment (Twitter link, with video, from FOX 26’s Mark Berman). Yesterday, Correa said he expected that he’d need 20 to 30 at-bats to get back up to speed, which would suggest that he could return to the Astros in about a week’s time. As for McCullers, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets that he’s slated to make a rehab start with Fresno on Friday. Berman also tweets that in addition to that pair of key players, righty Will Harris, lefty Tony Sipp and righty Michael Feliz are all headed to Triple-A Fresno for rehab work. Beyond that, Brian McCann is ready to be activated tomorrow.
Here’s more from the division…
- Details surrounding the contract of Mariners skipper Scott Servais weren’t reported or announced when he was initially hired, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports today that Servais is signed through the 2018 season (Twitter link). That would indicate that the first-time manager inked a three-year deal in his first term at the helm in Seattle. While Servais’ Mariners aren’t guaranteed a postseason spot, they’re right in the thick of the Wild Card hunt, sitting just two games back. That’s an impressive feat for a Mariners team that has seen Felix Hernandez, James Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma all spend significant time on the DL while projected rotation member Drew Smyly was lost for the year due to injuries without ever throwing a regular-season pitch.
- It’s looking more and more like Jurickson Profar‘s future will be with a team other than the Rangers, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Profar was again passed over for a call-up when Texas placed Joey Gallo on the disabled list with a concussion, and he’s blocked all over the infield by the likes of Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor and Adrian Beltre. Grant notes that Profar has only played shortstop on consecutive days in the Majors twice in his career, and he often sits against lefties in the bigs. One knock on him has been his lack of production as a right-handed hitter, Grant notes, but he’s hitting .404/.457/.649 against lefties in 109 plate appearances this season. Profar will be out of options entering next year, meaning the Rangers will either have to find a role for him or find a trade partner for him.
West Notes: Hand, Harris, Wilson, Melancon, Richards
About half of the teams in the league have expressed some level of interest in Padres lefty Brad Hand, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Evidently, those discussions have yet to get truly serious, as Lin adds that the Friars aren’t believed to be closing in on any swaps. A significant portion of the rest of the pitching staff has received attention of some kind, too, Lin adds. There are a few other interesting pitching trade candidates on the San Diego roster — Trevor Cahill chief among them, perhaps — and it wouldn’t be surprising to see several deals go down before the deadline.
Here’s more from out west:
- The Astros announced that reliever Will Harris is headed to the 10-day DL with right shoulder inflammation (h/t Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle, via Twitter). That’s somewhat troubling news at first glance, though Harris says he doesn’t anticipate a significant layoff (video via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, on Twitter). The 32-year-old has continued his stellar run in Houston, compiling 34 2/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball on the year — with 10.1 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9. Clearly, he’s a key member of the pen and a big part of the team’s planning the rest of the way. (Harris is also controlled through 2019 at very appealing rates.)
- Meanwhile, the Astros are likely focused on adding a starter and a lefty reliever. As regards the latter, the team is said to have an eye on Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, per Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (via Twitter). The teams discussed Wilson over the winter, per Rosenthal, and the southpaw’s quality effort early over the first half surely hasn’t reduced the interest. Wilson currently carries a career-high 12.8 K/9 with 3.4 BB/9 along with a 2.36 ERA over his 34 1/3 innings.
- Giants closer Mark Melancon seems unlikely to make it back before the trade deadline, likely removing him from consideration as a trade candidate, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes. The veteran righty, shelved for the second time this year with a forearm issue, has been able to pick up a baseball. But skipper Bruce Bochy suggested the team plans to bring him along slowly. As Baggarly suggests, it never seemed particularly likely that Melancon would end up being dealt regardless. For what it’s worth, though, I would add that Melancon would represent a very plausible August trade candidate if that proved desirable.
- Angels righty Garrett Richards still hasn’t been cleared to throw, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. The unfortunate hurler discussed the frustrations of his long-running effort to get healthy, telling Fletcher that he is at least encouraged that his current problem (with a biceps nerve) has improved somewhat — and that it doesn’t implicate his elbow, which he says still feels great. “Nobody knows anything about this injury,” said Richards, who says it isn’t clear when he’ll be deemed ready to begin throwing again. “I can’t worry about getting all caught up in playing right now,” he added. “I’ve got to worry about getting healthy first. When that happens, I’ll be ready.” Meanwhile, Fletcher notes that both Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are continuing to progress while working off of a mound, which seems to hold out some real promise of bolstering the team’s injury-riddled rotation in the relatively near future.
AL West Notes: Darvish, Dyson, Harris, Zych
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports took a close look at Rangers third base coach Tony Beasley’s battle with cancer last year. It’s an interesting read that highlights Beasley’s remarkable attitude and his relationship with the club even while undergoing treatment.
Here’s more from the AL West:
- The Rangers “would love” to find accord with righty Yu Darvish on a new contract, owner Ray Davis told reporters including Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (links to Twitter). Davis did note, though, that the club is already at record spending levels and wants to stay beneath the luxury tax line. That doesn’t appear to be a significant limiting factor at this point, and certainly the owner didn’t delve into many details, but it seems as if Texas will have its limits in contract talks with the staff ace.
- Meanwhile, the Rangers are keeping an eye on late-inning righty Sam Dyson, who is dealing with a slight wrist injury. As Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports on Twitter, Dyson suffered a sprain upon falling, though it doesn’t seem as if it’s a major issue. The reliever has already begun throwing.
- Astros righty Will Harris left his appearance today upon experiencing groin discomfort, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets. But the issue isn’t believed to be a serious one, with Harris expressing a lack of concern. Harris, 32, inked a two-year deal over the winter that could prove to be quite a bargain for the club if he can maintain anything approaching his excellent 2016 effort.
- Mariners righty Tony Zych will take the bump today for the first time this spring, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets. Zych will be looking to reestablish himself after an injury-plagued 2016 season in which he struggled with control when he was healthy. He’s working back from a shoulder procedure, and seems unlikely to be ready by Opening Day, but could give the M’s another live arm if he can get back to full health.
Astros Agree To Two-Year Deal With Will Harris
FEB. 6: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Harris’ 2019 option will increase to $6.5MM with 15 games finished in 2018. It’ll increase to $7.5MM if Harris finishes 25 games and $8.5MM if he finishes 35 games.
FEB. 3: The Astros have avoided arbitration by striking a two-year deal with righty Will Harris, per Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (links to Twitter). He’ll receive a $5MM guarantee ($2.2MM in 2017 and $2.8MM in 2018) in the pact, which also gives Houston a club option for the 2019 campaign. The value of the option will be determined by how many games Harris finishes in the 2018 season, with a range of between $5.5MM and $8.5MM.
The sides had been slated for an arbitration hearing, with Harris (via his agent, Gavin Kahn) filing at $2.3MM and the club countering at $1.95MM. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $2.5MM payday for the 2017 season. Instead of settling, or accepting the decision of an arbitration panel, the sides decided upon a multi-year arrangement that provides some cost certainty to the club while offering some protection to a late-blooming player.
Harris, 32, has largely flown under the radar since breaking into the majors in 2012 — at least until his brief recent stint as the Houston closer last year. But he has produced rather compelling peripherals for quite some time, and that has shown up in the results column since he was claimed by the ‘Stros from the Diamondbacks just after the conclusion of the 2014 campaign.
Over the past two seasons, Harris owns a 2.07 ERA over 135 innings. He carries a sturdy 9.1 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9, and has induced grounders on more than half of the balls put in play against him. That makes him one of the game’s better setup men, even if he’s rarely recognized as such.
Though there’s no added control in the arrangement, Houston could certainly stand to save quite a bit of money. Anything close to a repeat of his 2016 season would otherwise have lined Harris up for a big raise. And though he’ll retain a bit of upside in the option year, that too could prove a bargain (both in the arbitration context and more generally). That being said, it’s also easy to see the merit in the arrangement for the righty, who has earned at (or just over) the league minimum to this stage of his career. Given his age and the injury risk inherent to his trade, securing an added season worth of guaranteed money obviously made for a compelling opportunity.
AL West Notes: Davis, Astros, Gomez
Athletics slugger Khris Davis had his arbitration hearing yesterday, as Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports first tweeted, and the results should become known later today. The 29-year-old Davis was somewhat quietly a nice addition for the A’s, hitting .247/.307/.524 with a career-best 42 home runs in 610 trips to the plate. Oakland submitted a $4.65MM figure in arbitration, while Davis’ camp was seeking $5MM (as is shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). While the difference in figures seems largely trivial to most fans, there’s obviously a notable difference to Davis both this year and moving forward, as a higher 2017 mark will bode better for future arbitration raises. For those interested in the team side of the matter, I spoke to multiple GMs and assistant GMs about arbitration from the team angle a couple of years ago.
A couple more notes on the AL West…
- Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros have set hearing dates for their remaining three arbitration cases. Collin McHugh, who filed for a $3.85MM salary and was met with a $3.35MM counter from the team, is set to go to a trial on Feb. 10. Utility infielder Marwin Gonzalez ($4.2MM vs. $3.25MM) has a hearing set for Feb. 14. Setup man Will Harris ($2.3MM vs. $1.95MM), meanwhile, is slated for a hearing on Feb. 17. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes that the Astros still expect to avoid a hearing with at least one of those players.
- Rangers center fielder Carlos Gomez brought assistant hitting coach Justin Mashore to his home in the Dominican Republic for a one-week refresher on the alterations the Rangers made to his swing this past August, writes Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. Mashore and Texas hitting coach Anthony Iapoce both worked with Gomez to balance out his swing in an effort to see pitches a bit longer and to cut down on some of the wild hacks he’s been prone to taking at various points in his career (especially in his time with Houston). After hitting .221/.277/.342 in parts of two seasons in Houston, Gomez came to life with a .284/.362/.543 batting line and eight homers in 33 games with the Rangers late last season. The 31-year-old Gomez re-signed with Texas on a one-year, $11.5MM contract earlier this offseason in hopes of replicating that production over the course of a full season and re-entering the market next winter with a much stronger platform.
Astros Claim Will Harris From D’Backs
The Astros have claimed reliever Will Harris off waivers from the Diamondbacks, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports (on Twitter).
Harris, 30, totaled 29 innings out of the Snakes’ bullpen this season, pitching to a 4.34 ERA with 10.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 34.7 percent ground-ball rate. Though ERA wasn’t particularly kind to Harris in 2014, metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA are all quite fond of his work and reflect that his ERA could’ve been nearly two runs lower this year. Overall, he’s pitched quite well in two seasons with the D’Backs since being claimed off waivers; from 2013-14 Harris registered a 3.42 ERA with an 88-to-24 K/BB ratio in 81 2/3 innings of work.