Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Tuesday
Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton has already generated plenty of buzz at the GM Meetings. Perhaps that’s unsurprising, given that his massive contract represents a key factor in the Miami organization’s offseason — and those of the teams that will consider acquiring it. Given the unique circumstances at play, perhaps it wouldn’t be surprising if he were to be dealt at a relatively early stage.
Here’s the latest:
- The Dodgers are indeed in the mix for Stanton, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. To what extent Los Angeles is interested remains unclear, but the Dodgers certainly have the payroll capacity to take on the contract as well as the young talent in order to entice the Marlins to part with Stanton.
- Stanton actually has not ruled out the Red Sox — or, it seems, any other organizations — according to a report from Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. While the slugger may have initial preferences, Drellich writes that he’s maintaining a “‘completely’ open mind.” It’s ultimately not too surprising to hear some competing information flying about Stanton’s approach, for the reasons Goold explores in the below-linked piece. But if the slugger is indeed willing to entertain any possibilities, then that will presumably make for a more wide-open process — and keep things interesting right up to the point that Stanton weighs an actual opportunity t change teams, should it arise.
Earlier Updates
- The Giants have at times given signals of going big for Stanton (or another expensive player) or instead trying to stay under the luxury tax line. But it seems the organization is engaged with the Marlins in earnest. Per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, via Twitter, the clubs are discussing Giants prospect Heliot Ramos as a possible element of a hypothetical return for Stanton. San Francisco is joined by at least three others in chasing the slugger at this point, he adds. (Those looking for subtle signals will also note that Giants GM Bobby Evans and Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill were spotted on a joint foyer foray this morning, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets.)
- Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, meanwhile, hears at least seven clubs have shown some level of interest in Stanton, noting that the Marlins front office is “encouraged” by the early dialogue. Front office sources from other organizations framed things a bit differently; ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets that there’s a perception that the Marlins are seeking a “shockingly high” package for the rights to pay Stanton at a premium rate, particularly since his deal includes an opt-out clause.
- Importantly, per Heyman, Miami is said to be open to hanging on to some of Stanton’s contract. Additionally, the team is focused on achieving value rather than on getting young pitching, specifically.
- Of course, Stanton’s own preferences hold the final say in any deal. While it’s far from certain, there are rumblings that Stanton is not inclined to approve a swap that would send him to the Cardinals or Red Sox, as Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald reports. If nothing else, anything less than a full blessing from Stanton with regard to a given organization would likely complicate any effort to finalize a deal.
- The no-trade clause obviously ties into the subject of leverage, which is a key issue for the Fish, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains. Since Miami would do well to keep its cards close to the vest with regard to Stanton’s preferences, the information flow is critical to the Marlins’ effort to maximize their return while finding a landing spot Stanton that will authorize.
- While the Red Sox “may have checked in” on Stanton, they seem to be focused elsewhere. And the Dodgers haven’t engaged yet at all, Heyman adds. Both of those teams were highlighted by MLBTR as among the best fits on paper for the star slugger.
Blue Jays, Mets Showing Interest In Lorenzo Cain
The Blue Jays and Mets have both reached out to the representatives for free-agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Crasnick also lists the Rangers, Mariners and Giants as more speculative fits for Cain’s services.
While both Toronto and New York already have standout defensive center fielders in Kevin Pillar and Juan Lagares, respectively, adding Cain to the outfield mix in either organization could create an elite defensive unit. The Blue Jays have a more pronounced need in the outfield, though young Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford could both work their way into regular roles next year. The Mets would appear to be more set with Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto both in the mix alongside Lagares, but Conforto’s status is something of a question mark following shoulder surgery. Speaking purely speculatively, acquiring Cain could also allow either club to trade from its stock of outfielders.
Cain, 32 next April, hit .300/.363/.440 with 15 homers and 26 steals in 645 plate appearances with the Royals in 2017. While he’s never turned in a below-average season in the outfield by virtually any defensive metric, this past season was his weakest in that regard. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at +5 runs in center field, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him at +1.6. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metric still pegged Cain as one of baseball’s truly elite outfielders; he ranked fifth among all outfielders with a sterling mark of +15.
Cain will reportedly reject the Royals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, meaning he’ll cost any club that signs him some resources in next year’s draft. Specifically, the Jays and the Mets would forfeit their second-highest pick and $500K worth of next year’s international signing pool in order to sign Cain, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explained. The Rangers would face that same penalty, while the Mariners would only need to forfeit their third-highest selection. Of the teams listed by Crasnick, the Giants would pay the steepest penalty — forfeiting their second- and fifth-highest draft selections as well as $1MM worth of international spending money. San Francisco is “juggling a lot of balls” at present, per Crasnick.
The Royals, meanwhile, would land a compensatory draft pick after the first round so long as Cain signs a contract worth more than $50MM in total guarantees. That seems exceedingly likely to be the case, wherever he signs. In the off-chance that Cain somehow comes up shy of $50MM, Kansas City’s comp pick would come after Competitive Balance Round B in next year’s draft.
Giants Interested In Billy Hamilton
As the Giants canvas the market for center field upgrade options, the team has “shown interest” in Billy Hamilton of the Reds, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The 27-year-old projects to earn an even $5MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.
It’s no secret that the Giants are looking to add a center fielder. And it’s clear that defensive capability is a significant consideration, given that Denard Span is being moved to the corner in large part due to his inability to cover sufficient swaths of the spacious grassland of AT&T Park.
Hamilton would no doubt help in that regard, as he’s one of the game’s premier defenders — and has been ever since becoming regular in 2014. The fleet-footed Hamilton is also one of the very most valuable players in baseball on the basepaths. Trouble is, he has a tough time getting there, with a .298 lifetime on-base percentage.
Unsurprisingly, Hamilton is likely just one of several possibilities at this stage. Morosi recently connected San Francisco to Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox, who’d be a more appealing all-around option if he’s made available.
No doubt the Giants are looking into others as well, with trade talks and the open market both offering possibilities. Lorenzo Cain is the top free agent available, though he’ll require a significant outlay to acquire. Other names on the open market that could conceivably factor into the Giants’ thinking (some of them as potential fourth-outfield options) include Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, and Cameron Maybin.
Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen
In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish‘s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.
If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…
- Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
- The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
- The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
- Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
- Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals‘ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/12/17
Here are the latest minor moves from around the game, all from Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise credited…
- Leonys Martin is now a free agent, as he elected to hit the open market after being outrighted off the Cubs‘ roster last week. The veteran outfielder is looking to rebound from a rough 2017 that saw him post just a .513 OPS over 138 PA with the Cubs and Mariners, though Martin was still an above-average defender in the outfield.
- The Royals re-signed right-hander Seth Maness to a new minor league deal. Maness elected to become a free agent last month after K.C. outrighted him off its 40-man roster. A workhorse out of the Cardinals’ bullpen in his first three seasons, Maness has been limited to just 41 1/3 IP over the last two seasons thanks to a torn UCL, though he opted for an innovative “primary repair” procedure that allowed him a much quicker return to action than the usual 12-15 month timeline for Tommy John surgery.
- Catcher Tim Federowicz chose to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Giants‘ 40-man roster. Federowicz hasn’t hit much (a .558 OPS) over 318 career MLB plate appearances, though he has a very impressive .304/.374/.503 slash line over 1654 PA at the Triple-A level.
- The Braves released right-hander Armando Rivero. Atlanta chose Rivero in last year’s Rule 5 Draft but Rivero missed the entire season due to shoulder problems. The Braves outrighted Rivero off their 40-man roster last month, so the Cubs officially declined the opportunity to take the righty back. Rivero has a 2.70 ERA, 12.4 K/9 and 2.83 K/BB rate over 220 career innings in the minors, all as a reliever in Chicago’s system.
- Catcher Erik Kratz elected to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A, the Yankees announced earlier this week (via Twitter). Kratz spent much of 2017 at Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate before being acquired by New York on August 31 to add some catching depth to the expanded September rosters. Kratz only appeared in four games as a Yankee, but it officially made him a veteran of six different teams over parts of eight MLB seasons. The 37-year-old has a .203/.250/.366 slash line over 649 career plate appearances in the bigs.
Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday
Heading into the upcoming week’s general managers meetings, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton ranks as the majors’ best on-the-block player. Here are the latest rumblings involving the 27-year-old National League MVP hopeful:
- Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Boston is “definitely in play” for Stanton, but sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag that the Red Sox don’t look like the front-runners for him at the moment. Rather, the Sox are more focused on other players, including free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, per Heyman.
- The Cardinals, who have discussed Stanton with the Marlins, are “determined” in their interest, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The two clubs expect to continue their Stanton talks at the meetings, according to Goold, who adds that the Cardinals also have Marlins closer Brad Ziegler on their radar. The 38-year-old Ziegler is due $9MM in 2018, and it’s fair to surmise that the payroll-slashing Marlins would like to remove as much of his money as possible from their books.
- Stanton has also piqued San Francisco’s interest, though the Marlins are bearish on the Giants’ farm system and don’t believe the team could put together a satisfactory package for the slugger, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. So, to increase their odds of acquiring Stanton, the Giants would have to commit to taking on more of his enormous contract than a team with better prospects, Shea contends. That would seemingly be problematic for the Giants, who don’t want to spend past the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018 and already have significant money on their books.
Giants Interested In Acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr.
The Giants are interested in acquiring Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Bradley is one of “many” outfielders the Giants are eyeing, notes Morosi, who reported Friday that they have discussed right fielder Giancarlo Stanton with the Marlins.
The 27-year-old Bradley would be a much less exciting addition for San Francisco than Stanton, who’s a National League MVP finalist after bashing 59 home runs in 2017, but he’d nonetheless upgrade its outfield. The Giants’ starting center fielder in 2017 was the 33-year-old Denard Span, who easily ranked last in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-27) and posted a similarly dreadful minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating. Unsurprisingly, then, executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has identified center field as a position where the Giants must improve.
“Center field needs to be upgraded,” Sabean said this week.
Bradley would fit the bill from a defensive standpoint, having combined for 34 DRS and a 23.5 UZR in center dating back to 2014, his first full season. The lefty-swinger complemented his excellent glove work with terrific offense from 2015-16, slashing .262/.345/.489 with 36 home runs and a .227 ISO in 891 plate appearances, but his production in that department took a step back last season. In 541 trips to the plate, Bradley hit a disappointing .245/.323/.402 and saw his ISO plummet to .158. On the positive side, Bradley still went deep 17 times, and he ranked as one of the premier baserunners in the game for the second straight year, according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.
While it’s unclear what the Giants would have to give up for Bradley, he’d presumably bring back a solid haul as someone who still has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He’s projected to earn an easily affordable $5.9MM in 2018, which surely appeals to a San Francisco club that already has approximately $170MM committed to 16 players for next season and is trying to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold. Conversely, the Red Sox are more than willing to spend upward of $197MM if it means improving their offense, which struggled in 2017. Dealing Bradley and acquiring a big-hitting outfielder like Stanton or free agent J.D. Martinez would help them do that.
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton: Talks Between Marlins, 4 Teams
The Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants and Phillies are early contenders to put together a trade for Marlins superstar Giancarlo Stanton, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter). There has been “preliminary communication” regarding the right fielder between each of those teams and the Marlins, according to Morosi, who adds that talks are likely to “intensify” at next week’s general managers meetings.
With the Marlins primed to slash payroll under new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Stanton stands out as their most obvious trade candidate. The 2017 major league home run king (59) and National League MVP finalist is owed either $295MM through 2028 or $77MM through 2020, depending on whether he exercises his opt-out clause. The amount of money left on the contract, the opt-out and Stanton’s full no-trade rights could combine to make a trade rather complicated. But the 27-year-old Stanton’s no-trade clause may not be a major hindrance, given that he is fed up with losing and would like to join a contender. The Marlins appear poised to embark on a lengthy rebuild, so it seems doubtful Stanton would stand in the way of a deal if he feels the acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful games into the fall – something he hasn’t done since bursting on the big league scene in 2010.
While the Marlins have never even posted an above-.500 season during Stanton’s eight-year career, the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have typically served as contenders during that span (though San Francisco’s coming off a major league-worst 68-win season). The Phillies, meanwhile, have finished toward the bottom of the NL East for five years running, but several of their young players showed progress in 2017, and the club figures to return to its high-spending ways when it’s officially ready to leave its own long rebuild behind. Stanton reportedly wasn’t willing to waive his NTC to go to Philadelphia as of late in the season, though, and it could also hurt the team’s cause that it shares a division with the Marlins, who would have to face the p.r. backlash of dealing the face of their franchise to a close rival.
As with the Phillies, there are reasons why a Stanton acquisition would and wouldn’t work for each of the other three suitors (and several other teams), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd deftly laid out on Thursday. Regardless of whether the Marlins ultimately send him to one of the four front-runners or another club, the Stanton sweepstakes will go down as one of the most fascinating sagas of the offseason.
NL Notes: Giants, Mattingly, Stanton, Braves, Schu
Giants executive Brian Sabean discussed his organization’s chief needs recently with reporters including MLB.com’s Chris Haft. While the team is facing a difficult situation with regard to payroll — both in 2018 and beyond — Sabean says there’s urgency to improve in several areas. “Center field needs to be upgraded,” he said. “We have to find an everyday third baseman. And we have to be resourceful in how we reconstruct the bullpen.” Those are the primary spots that seem in need of improvement from the outside; truly getting better, though, will require some combination of creativity and tough tradeoffs.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Marlins have confirmed that Don Mattingly will, as expected, be back as manager, as Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel writes. The veteran skipper is under contract, as president of baseball operations Michael Hill noted, but the organization had not yet made clear in the midst of an ownership change that he would retain his role. (Of course, it would have rated as a big surprise had the team suddenly gone in a different direction at this point in the offseason.) Mattingly has said he’s excited to get underway with the new ownership group led by fellow Yankees legend Derek Jeter, but it’s yet to be seen just what kind of roster he’ll have to work with.
- Speaking of notable possible roster changes, Hill has held a conversation with Giancarlo Stanton, Healey reports, but the Marlins are understandably keeping things close to the vest. Expectations remain that the club will slash salary through some significant trades; Hill acknowledged that things haven’t gone as hoped of late and says the goal is to “build a sustainable, consistent, productive major league organization.” Stanton’s massive contract and excellent 2017 season seemingly make him a rather obvious trade piece, and we took a look earlier today at some teams that could line up on paper for Stanton, but his no-trade clause gives him quite a lot of say in a future destination.
- We’re still waiting to hear about league punishments for the Braves slate of alleged amateur signing transgressions, and it seems the wait will take a while longer. A decision is expected sometime between the GM Meetings and Winter Meetings, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s likely that word won’t come down until December, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick adds on Twitter. Interestingly, though, Sherman says that the organization could end up making a front office decision before the commisioner’s office acts. Indeed, the team has been “quietly interviewing” some potential candidates that could join the front office in some capacity, per Sherman, who adds that the preference remains to seek a reunion with Royals GM Dayton Moore — who hasn’t been allowed to speak with the Atlanta organization to this point.
- The Giants have hired Rick Schu as their assistant hitting coach, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Schu, a former big league third baseman, had served as the Nationals’ hitting coach since 2013 but was among the personnel allowed to seek other opportunities after the Nats decided not to retain Dusty Baker. Washington ended up hiring Kevin Long as its new hitting coach.
Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Bruce, LoMo, Hosmer, Morrow, Ichiro
Though Greg Holland turned down his $15MM player option and will also reject his $17.4MM qualifying offer, it’s not yet a foregone conclusion that his Denver days are in the past, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Rockies “believe that Holland is the right leader” for their young pitching staff and will seek to re-sign him to a more lucrative multi-year offer, per Heyman. They will, of course, face a fair bit of competition in that pursuit. Heyman lists the Cubs and Cardinals as teams that will possibly be in the market for Holland this offseason as well.
A few more early notes on the free agent market…
- Jay Bruce‘s camp is reportedly setting its sights high and asking for a five-year deal worth $80-90MM, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday. High asking price notwithstanding, Heyman reports today in his weekly notes column that the Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners and Cardinals are four potential landing spots for Bruce in free agency. Heyman notes that Bruce should be able to comfortably land a three-year commitment that could price him out of the comfort zones of the Mets and the Indians.
- Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison told Jon Morosi and Jim Duquette in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that playing for his hometown Royals “would be a dream come true.” (Twitter link, with audio) Morrison fondly recalls trips to Kauffman Stadium with his father as a child and says it would be “amazing” to be able to have his grandmother come to the park and watch him play regularly in 2018. “All of that stuff would be fun,” said Morrison, “but we’ll see what happens.” The 30-year-old Morrison, meanwhile, hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs in a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay this past season. Despite that huge year, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Rays and therefore won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. Kansas City will have a void at first base if Eric Hosmer leaves elsewhere, though Heyman notes in the aforementioned notes column that Hosmer is still the Royals’ top priority (at least among their own impending free agents). If he signs elsewhere, the Royals would recoup a draft pick — likely at the end of the first round.
- Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Ichiro Suzuki‘s agent, John Boggs, has already reached out to the Athletics to try to pitch his client’s services. Slusser the chat between the two sides as “brief,” noting that it was based on Ichiro’s relationship with A’s manager Bob Melvin, who managed Ichiro more than a decade ago. There does not appear to be a fit, she notes, though Boggs tells Slusser that Ichiro “has the ultimate desire to play” in 2018. Heyman noted in the aforementioned notes column that the Marlins did not make an offer to the 44-year-old Ichiro before declining his $2MM option.