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Sonny Gray

Looking For A Match In A Sonny Gray Trade

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The Cardinals are entering what could be a multi-year rebuilding period where they focus more on strengthening their farm system and player development apparatus than winning games at the major league level. That’s a pivot that started last winter, but a number of key veteran players with no-trade clauses wanted to stick with the organization for the 2025 season and try to win in St. Louis. With a 78-84 season in the books and Chaim Bloom having now officially taken over John Mozeliak’s spot atop the baseball operations department, however, those same veterans are softening their stance about the possibility of a trade.

Perhaps the most interesting of those veteran is right-hander Sonny Gray, who is entering the final year of his contract in 2026. Gray is coming off a down season and will turn 36 in November, but his 4.28 ERA in 32 starts this year was still right around league average with much stronger peripheral numbers than that. He struck out 26.7% of his opponents, walked just 5.0%, and had the sixth-lowest SIERA in baseball among qualified starters this year with a 3.29 figure that clocked in behind only Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Cristopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, and Logan Webb.

That’s good company to keep, considering that all five of those players well might end up as finalists for their respective league’s Cy Young award this year, and should help to assuage concerns about Gray’s ability to compete at a high level in his mid-30s. Few pitchers have a recent track record more impressive than the veteran right-hander, all things considered. In 116 starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, Gray has a 3.53 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate, and a 3.17 FIP in 650 2/3 innings of work. It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could use in their rotation, but there are complicating factors in considering a trade for Gray.

The right-hander has a full no-trade clause that he has the ability to wield as he sees fit, and Gray is due a $35MM salary in 2026 with a $5MM buyout on a 2027 mutual option. That’s a hefty salary that a good number of clubs simply won’t be able to stomach, and the fact that Gray has shown a preference for pitching in smaller markets throughout his career could mean he’d wield his no-trade clause against some of the larger market franchises that could stomach his salary. The Cardinals are open to paying down salary in trades this winter, but it’s unclear if they’d be willing to pay down enough of it to get smaller market clubs into the mix for Gray’s services.

Which clubs are the best fits for St. Louis’s veteran hurler? Here’s a look at nine potential suitors, listed alphabetically within tiers:

Best Fits

  • Braves: One of the clear best fits for Gray’s services is Atlanta, who were reportedly in on Gray when he was a free agent two offseasons ago. Since then, the Braves have struggled to stay healthy and even fell out of the playoff picture this year due in large part to a rotation that was desperately missing Max Fried’s stabilizing presence after he left for the Yankees last winter. Atlanta has never been the sort of club to go out and spend hundreds of millions on an ace in free agency, so unless they change course this year they’ll need to get creative to add some certainty to a rotation that saw all of its established starters spend significant time on the injured list this year. Bringing Gray into the fold could be just that sort of creativity, and Alex Anthopoulos has long been comfortable bringing in veterans (like Marcell Ozuna, Josh Donaldson, and Charlie Morton) on short-term deals with high salaries.
  • Giants: The Giants are going to need more than just Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Landen Roupp in their rotation next year, and Gray would make plenty of sense for that role. Gray was actually connected to San Francisco back in September as a potential trade target. Some of that report was based on Gray’s connection with former Giants manager Bob Melvin, who has since been fired, but the Giants are still one of the few clubs that could stomach most of Gray’s salary within their expected budget. Gray also had plenty of success pitching for the A’s in Oakland, so a return to the Bay Area might have appeal to him even without Melvin in the fold.
  • Orioles: The Orioles, much like the Braves, found themselves pushed out of contention early this year due in large part to a lack of pitching depth. There’s virtually no certainty in the club’s 2026 rotation outside of Trevor Rogers, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has shown a strong preference towards short-term additions when bringing in players who make significant dollars. That could make Gray a sensible fit following a season where Baltimore paid more than $41MM combined to Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, and Morton for lackluster performances. While the Orioles are a lower budget club than most of the teams mentioned here, St. Louis’s willingness to eat salary could make Gray less of a financial burden than comparable arms in free agency.

Next Tier Down

  • Athletics: Gray played for the Athletics in Oakland for parts of five seasons after they took him 18th overall in the 2011 draft. In that time, he posted a 3.42 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 705 innings of work. Gray was eventually dealt to the Yankees, and in the years since then the A’s have been uprooted from Oakland and moved to West Sacramento. That move came with a raised payroll and a more sincere attempt to compete than previous rebuilding years, however, and a hitting core of Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom looks ready to compete in the playoffs. What they’ll need to make that happen is pitching, and Gray has front-of-the-rotation upside and experience playing in unfriendly pitching environments like Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark. Perhaps if Gray was available last offseason, the A’s would’ve been a more sensible fit, but as it stands it’s unclear if the A’s intend to continue scaling up payroll after last season’s spending brought them an 86-loss campaign.
  • Padres: No team comes to mind more quickly than the Padres when discussing creative trade proposals, and that’s entirely thanks to the efforts of president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. Preller is by far the most active and aggressive executive in baseball, and this winter he’ll be tasked with replacing Dylan Cease and Michael King at the top of the rotation despite a relative lack of budget space. Adding someone like Gray to the rotation alongside Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears would be a huge help in stabilizing things, but there are clear obstacles here. For one thing, the Cardinals would likely need to be willing to eat the overwhelming majority of Gray’s salary in order to facilitate a deal with San Diego. That would mean a rather high prospect cost for the Padres, and while Preller is never shy about trading prospects his push at this summer’s trade deadline has left those cupboards somewhat barren. What’s more, Gray would be controlled for just the 2026 season, and Preller usually prioritizing trades for controllable players over rentals.
  • Dodgers: When it comes to spending money, there are few (if any) teams in baseball who can do so with the same reckless abandon as the Dodgers. Their payroll this season approached $400MM and it should surprise no one if it ends up in a similar place next season. While their rotation of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani is currently powering them through the postseason, the injury concerns in that group are obvious and the depth behind that quartet is taking a hit with Clayton Kershaw’s impending retirement. Adding a reliable workhorse like Gray would make plenty of sense, and the Dodgers are one of the few clubs that could reasonably take on most if not all of Gray’s salary without much issue. On the other hand, the Dodgers aren’t exactly the sort of small market club Gray has typically preferred to play for over the years, which could be a problem depending on how aggressive he is in using his no-trade clause.

Long Shots:

  • Cubs: On paper, the Cubs might seem like an excellent fit for Gray. The club appears likely to pursue pitching help this winter after injuries to Justin Steele and Cade Horton left them shorthanded this postseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has shown a proclivity towards shorter-term additions with higher salaries, and Chicago’s status as a midwest city could be attractive to Gray for the purposes of his no-trade clause considering his previous decisions to sign in Cincinnati, Minnesota, and St. Louis. With all of that said, the biggest obstacle to this sort of trade is that the Cubs and Cardinals have one of the biggest rivalries in the sport and very rarely trade with each other. Perhaps Bloom taking over as president of baseball operations could help thaw that trade embargo, given that he and Brian Cashman executed what was then just the second Yankees/Red Sox trade of the 21st century back in 2021, but it would still be a shock to see the teams line up on a trade of this magnitude.
  • Mets:  The Mets are a team with plenty of willingness to spend money, a major need in the rotation, and a strong preference for bringing pitchers in on relatively short-term contracts. That all would make them seem like an obvious fit for Gray, but it’s fair to wonder how the right-hander’s previous stint in New York could impact interest on both sides. Gray’s 4.51 ERA in parts of two seasons with the Yankees was the worst stretch of his career. It would be understandable if Gray wasn’t interested in returning to New York at this point in his career, even for a different franchise, and it’s equally possible that the Mets would shy away from a pitcher who previously struggled in the sport’s largest media market.
  • Reds: It was with the Reds that Gray turned his career around after leaving New York, and he pitched to a 3.49 ERA across three seasons in Cincinnati. He signed an extension with the club once before, so his no-trade clause would likely be a non-issue, and the Reds were connected to him both during his last trip through free agency and even on the trade market last year. It would stand to reason that there could be some interest between the two sides once again, but the Reds’ limited budget makes a trade hard to envision given that they already have a rotation of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, and Nick Lodolo locked in for 2026 with youngsters like Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder also in the mix for starts. Whatever budget space Cincinnati has available this winter seems likely to be better used elsewhere on the roster, barring a trade of another arm that creates an opening.

Report: Cardinals Ownership More Willing To Include Money In Trades

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Everything coming out of St. Louis suggests that the Cardinals are at a major pivot point for the franchise. They are entering what could be a multi-year rebuild period as they focus on player development more than short-term contention. That has been the case for about a year already but all signs suggest the club will be leaning harder in that direction. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the ownership will now be more willing to eat money in trades, in order to extract greater returns.

That reporting aligns with comments this week from Chaim Bloom, the new president of baseball operations. “As far as cash being a lever on the trade front, that should never be off the table,” he said, per Woo. “Obviously, you’d prefer not to do that, but you could end up in a situation where adding cash to make a preferred deal work just makes sense.”

Between Bloom’s comments and Woo’s reporting about ownership, it seems the franchise is aligned. That should only add to the sense that highly-paid players like Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray are more likely to be moved this offseason than they were last winter.

A year ago, the Cards made it clear that they were beginning this reset period. That initially made it seem likely that veteran players like Arenado, Gray and Willson Contreras could be logical trade candidates. However, Gray and Contreras quickly indicated that they wanted to stay in St. Louis. Arenado was a bit more open to a trade but had a narrow list of five clubs he considered acceptable landing spots and ultimately wasn’t traded.

The club’s rebuilding plans now seem to be more firmly in place and both Arenado and Gray have publicly expressed a greater willingness to waive their no-trade clauses this time around. Contreras seems less interested in leaving but didn’t completely discount the possibility.

That’s a good start for the Cardinals but eating money will be helpful to getting deals done. Gray is still a good pitcher and just wrapped a solid season, middling earned run average notwithstanding. Though he allowed 4.28 earned runs per nine over 180 2/3 innings, his .329 batting average on balls in play probably inflated that a bit. His 26.7% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate were all strong marks. ERA estimators like his 3.39 FIP and 3.29 SIERA suggest he was more his old self than the ERA itself would indicate.

Even if clubs are willing to overlook the ERA, the contract is an obstacle. His three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals was heavily backloaded. He made just $10MM in 2024 and $25MM this year. He’ll then make $35MM next year, followed by a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option. If that option is picked up, Gray can then opt out.

At this point, there is just one more guaranteed season left on the deal but with $40MM still to be paid out. The option doesn’t really add any extra upside because of that opt-out. Despite Gray’s talents, $40MM for one year of a pitcher is a lot. That kind of average annual value has been reserved for ace-type pitchers. Even if it were a fair price for Gray’s services, eating more money to extract more prospect capital is a sensible tactic for a club focused on the long term.

Arenado is going to make $27MM next year, though the Rockies are going to pay $5MM of that and $6MM is deferred. He’ll then make $15MM in 2027. That works out to less than $20MM annually but his stock is down after some rough years at the plate. He hit just .237/.289/.377 for a wRC+ of 84 this year and was barely above league average in the prior two campaigns. He still gets good grades for his glovework but isn’t the MVP candidate he once was.

Other teams will have different valuations of what they expect from him going forward, but as mentioned with Gray, any money that the Cardinals are willing to eat should increase what teams are willing to give up.

With Contreras, as mentioned, a trade seems less likely before even considering the money but it could happen. He is still owed $41.5MM over the next two years. That’s an $18MM salary next year, $18.5MM in 2027, and then a $5MM buyout on a $17.5MM club option for 2028.

He has been moved from the catcher position to first base. He got decent grades for his glovework there this year, getting credit for six Outs Above Average, while Defensive Runs Saved had him just below par at -1. The bat is still strong, as he hit .257/.344/.447 this year for a 124 wRC+. Those numbers are all close to his career marks, where he has a .258/.352/.459 batting line and 122 wRC+.

Though he’s going into his age-34 season, the deal isn’t bad. Christian Walker just got $60MM over three years from the Astros going into his age-34 campaign. But even if the Contreras deal isn’t underwater, other teams may not give up much for it unless the Cards pay it down somewhat.

Last winter, the Cards seemed to be more motivated by salary relief. Arenado was still owed roughly $60MM over three years when they lined up a trade with the Astros. Arenado vetoed that deal but reporting indicated the Cards were only going to eat about $5MM per season, leaving the Astros on the hook for about $45MM. It’s unknown what the Cards were going to receive in that trade but is was likely going to be a salary dump deal. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. later said they would have to find cuts elsewhere if they didn’t move Arenado, though that didn’t really end up happening.

Per RosterResource, the Cardinals had a $144MM payroll in 2025. Thanks to some trades and some expiring contracts, they are projected for just $75MM next year. Arbitration salaries for players like Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar could push that up but those players are themselves candidates to be traded this winter. Perhaps that lighter payroll is what opened the path for the Cards to worry less about cost savings this time, which could increase their chances of adding meaning young talent to their pipeline.

There will be non-payroll expenditures, however. Woo reports that the club is planning to make more investments in the fields of analytics, player development and scouting. There’s also some uncertainty with the club’s TV deal. The Cards reached a new agreement with Main Street Sports, formerly known as Diamond Sports Group, to be on the FanDuel Sports Network in 2025. Woo writes that the deal contains option provisions after each season. She says that no major shake-up is expected but that some renegotiations could take place.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Chaim Bloom Discusses Marmol, GM, Arenado, Gray

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Chaim Bloom was officially introduced as Cardinals president of baseball operations at a press conference on Tuesday morning. He takes control at a time when multiple reports have suggested they’re moving to a rebuild that’ll put Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and others back in trade rumors.

While Bloom pointedly avoided the term “rebuild,” his meeting with the media did little to dispel the overall notion. “We have talent here. We have more talent coming, and we have some of the makings of that core, but we need more. Our top priority will be to build our talent base for the long term,” he told reporters (link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). “That may mean hard decisions and short-term sacrifices, but to get where we want to go, we can’t take shortcuts — and we won’t.” Bloom subsequently added that while they’ll “hunt moves and decisions that allow (them to win) right now,” the focus will be on the long term if they need “to choose between short-term gratification and our bigger goal of contending consistently.”

None of that comes as a surprise. Arenado, Gray and Contreras have all confirmed they’d spoken to Bloom late in the season and understood where the organization was going. That’s the impetus for all three players saying they’re willing to consider waiving their no-trade clauses in the right circumstances (though Contreras said he’d still prefer to stay and be a veteran mentor).

Oliver Marmol will continue to oversee things in the dugout. Bloom confirmed the manager will be back for a fifth season (relayed by Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Marmol is under contract through the end of next season. Bloom indicated there haven’t been any extension talks to date but didn’t dismiss the possibility of having those conversations at some point.

There’s also an uncertain timeline on the club’s GM hire. Former general manager Michael Girsch was reassigned to vice president of special projects last offseason — a move that came in conjunction with the team’s announcement that Bloom would replace John Mozeliak as baseball operations president going into 2026. Bloom will eventually hire his own top lieutenant with the GM title but indicated that might not happen this offseason (via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat).

Of course, most of the focus will be on the team’s expected roster turnover. The Cardinals will be motivated to try to trade Arenado, who is signed for two more seasons. They’re on the hook for $22MM of next season’s $27MM salary (though another $6MM of that is deferred) and his entire $15MM deal for 2027. They’d need to pay down the bulk of the money given Arenado’s declining offensive production. Bloom spoke of a general openness to kicking in cash in the right trades but definitively shot down the idea that they might simply release Arenado if no trade presented itself.

St. Louis would also need to eat some money on Gray. That’s less an indictment on the right-hander’s performance than a reflection of his contract structure. His three-year, $75MM free agent deal was heavily backloaded. Gray will make $35MM next season and is guaranteed a $5MM buyout on a $30MM option for 2027. It’s a $40MM commitment for one year, the kind of salary that has been reserved for late-career aces who were still performing at Cy Young levels (e.g. Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler).

Gray remains a very good pitcher but isn’t at that level. Assuming the Cardinals are willing to eat some of the money, there’d be plenty of teams intrigued by the idea of adding Gray to the rotation. The three-time All-Star has already acknowledged he’s willing to think about waiving his no-trade clause. Bloom said the front office will “see what’s out there, and if there’s something that could make sense for us that furthers our goals that he also wants to do, then we’ll explore” trade possibilities (via Woo).

However, he contrasted Gray’s situation with Arenado’s and implied that the Cardinals are a little less motivated to trade the former. “With Sonny, the situation is a bit different in that we do have a clear fit for him here,” Bloom said. Even in a non-competitive year, the Cardinals will need some level of veteran presence in the rotation. They’re not going to keep Gray for that reason alone, but they’ll already have ample opportunity for pitchers like Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy and Kyle Leahy to stake claims to rotation spots. The Cards aren’t going to be major players in free agency, but Bloom said they’ll be in the market for pitching depth in both the starting staff and the bullpen.

Sonny Gray Will Consider Waiving No-Trade Clause This Offseason

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As the Cardinals embarked on a self-proclaimed youth movement that commenced last offseason, veterans like Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado had control over their futures by virtue of their contracts’ no-trade provisions. Arenado ultimately wound up considering trade possibilities anyhow, but Gray and Contreras quickly made their intentions to remain in St. Louis clear to the club. That won’t be the case for Gray in the coming offseason, however. Asked following last night’s game whether he feels he has to consider greenlighting a trade this winter, the former All-Star was candid in acknowledging a change in tune (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch):

“I think I do, just to be frank and to be honest. I definitely think I do. Whether I do decide that I want to go somewhere – whether that actually happens – I don’t have complete control of that. Obviously, I have control of where I can’t go or don’t go. I’m going to be 36. It’s going to be my 14th season. Last year of my contract for this. I don’t know what the future holds for me.”

Gray, 36 in November, has enjoyed another solid season in 2025, pitching to a 4.28 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, a 5% walk rate and a 43.9% ground-ball rate in 180 2/3 innings. Metrics like FIP (3.39) and SIERA (3.29) feel he’s been far better than that more rudimentary earned run average would indicate. Since signing with the Cards in the 2023-24 offseason, Gray has made 60 starts and turned in a 4.07 ERA (3.27 FIP, 3.16 SIERA) in 347 innings.

On the surface, that performance and Gray’s broader track record would seem to create plenty of trade value — but the right-hander’s contract complicates matters. Even beyond the full no-trade protection, the backloaded nature of the contract will make it difficult for new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom (who was announced as current president John Mozeliak’s successor last October) to extract real value in return for the former Cy Young runner-up.

Gray is entering the final season of a three-year, $75MM contract. However, he earned just $10MM of that sum in year one of the contract and $25MM in 2025. He’s owed a massive $35MM salary for the 2026 season and at least a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option for the 2027 season. The 2022-26 CBA stipulates that for traded players, their luxury tax hit is recalculated to match the remainder of their contract. As such, Gray comes with a $40MM CBT number. To a team that isn’t paying the luxury tax, that’s perhaps not a dealbreaker. But for third-time payors in the top penalty tier (e.g. Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees), Gray would come with a 110% tax; he’d effectively cost them a staggering $84MM.

No team is going to that length for one year of Gray, Plus, the Cards can’t even pitch the ’27 club option as a potential benefit. Gray’s contract stipulates that if his 2027 option is exercised, he can simply void the option and elect free agency. If Gray pitches well enough next year to merit a $30MM salary in 2027, he’ll probably just opt out once that option is exercised. That’d spare the new team $5MM in guaranteed money (plus any associated taxes), but that’s not really a selling point for the Cardinals when negotiating.

While we’ve seen a select few pitchers secure an annual value exceeding the effective one year and $40MM remaining on Gray’s contract, MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that it’s been reserved only for clear Cy Young-caliber arms coming off peak seasons. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer both secured $43.333MM annual values when they were even older than Gray, but Verlander was coming off an AL Cy Young win in 2022 and Scherzer had just posted a 2.46 ERA and finished third in NL Cy Young balloting the year prior. Zack Wheeler’s three-year extension with the Phillies pays him $42MM annually but was signed when Wheeler was a year younger and had turned in a combined 3.06 ERA in his previous 629 1/3 innings.

Gray, of course, is a decorated pitcher himself — a former first-round pick and three-time All-Star who has twice finished in the top-three of American Cy Young voting. That includes a second-place Cy Young finish with Minnesota as recently as 2023. His work with the Cardinals has been a few steps below those other $40MM-per-year aces, however.

There’s little doubt that Gray would be an in-demand commodity, in a vacuum. He’s 13th among all major league pitchers in terms of innings pitched since the 2019 season and carries a strong 3.51 ERA in that time. He misses bats, boasts plus command and keeps the ball on the ground at a slightly above-average clip. If Gray were a free agent and were to declare that he would only sign a one-year deal, it’s feasible that he could command close to $30MM, or perhaps even a slight bit more. Teams — especially big-market, high-payroll clubs — are often willing to pay a premium in terms of AAV to limit the long-term risk on free-agent contracts.

Even if there are teams who value him in that range though, the Cardinals would need to eat around $10MM just to pay Gray down to market value. If they wanted to actually create the type of surplus value that would net them a notable return in terms of prospects, they’d probably need to eat closer to $20-25MM of the contract. That probably wouldn’t net them a premium prospect, but at that price point they could justify asking for a solid minor leaguer or two to add to the middle tiers of their farm system.

It’s not yet clear how comfortable Cards ownership will be with paying substantial money to net a prospect return. If simply clearing salary is the goal, the Cards could probably eat $8-10MM and find a taker with little to no return — similar to the Cubs’ trade of Cody Bellinger to the Yankees last winter. The strength of any potential return will be contingent upon how much of the contract the DeWitt family is willing to pay down. Those are conversations that Bloom and ownership will have in the weeks ahead.

What’s clear at this point is both Gray’s intention to consider the possibility of waiving that full no-trade clause and the type of offseason that looms on the horizon for the Cardinals.

“I know the deal,” Gray last night said after noting that he and Bloom have spoken at length about the upcoming offseason. “I know the direction. …I came here to win. I signed here two years ago with the expectation of winning and trying to win, and that hasn’t played out that way. I want to win. I want to win, and I expect to win.”

Based on everything Gray said last night, there’s a very real chance that yesterday’s outing — six innings, two runs, seven hits, two walks, seven strikeouts — represents the final appearance of his Cardinals tenure.

Giants Expected To Show Interest In Sonny Gray This Offseason

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Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray took home the win in today’s game against the Giants, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote this afternoon following the game that San Francisco may have an especially close eye on the 35-year-old right-hander. That’s because Gray is, in Slusser’s words, “on the Giants’ radar” and “very much a potential target” for the club this offseason.

It’s not hard to see why San Francisco might be interested in bringing in a pitcher like Gray. After all, Logan Webb and Robbie Ray are the only two players locked into the Giants’ 2026 rotation. Veteran right-hander Justin Verlander is ticketed for free agency, and while it’s possible than Landen Roupp has done enough to earn himself a spot in the rotation with 22 solid starts for the Giants this year, Kyle Harrison’s work in 24 starts with San Francisco last year wasn’t enough to keep a rotation spot headed into the 2025 campaign. With Harrison and Jordan Hicks both having been dealt to Boston as part of the Rafael Devers trade, it stands to reason that the Giants will look to add at least one starter this offseason. Two wouldn’t even be far-fetched for the club, particularly if Verlander walks in free agency.

It’s against that backdrop that the Giants are likely, at least in Slusser’s view, to check in on Gray. The veteran hasn’t looked quite the same as he did when he finished second behind Gerrit Cole in AL Cy Young award voting back in 2023 with the Twins during his two years in St. Louis, but he’s generally been a quality arm for the Cardinals all the same. In 56 starts since joining the organization, Gray sports a 4.13 ERA with an exactly league average ERA+ of 100. That could be construed as Gray being little more than a back-of-the-rotation arm at this point in his career, but a 3.30 FIP, a 3.17 SIERA, and a 2.97 xFIP tell a different story.

Since arriving in St. Louis, Gray has struck out an incredible 28.3% of his opponents while issuing free passes at a clip of just 5.3%. That’s good for the sixth-best K-BB% in baseball among qualified starters over the past two seasons; only Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Paul Skenes, Logan Gilbert, and Zack Wheeler have been better in that regard. That’s impressive company to keep, and Gray has been somewhat held back by poor luck on batted balls and sequencing issues. His .314 BABIP and 68.3% strand rate are both far worse than his career norms. Not all of his poor results have been bad luck, as Gray’s 9.4% barrel rate over the past two years is the 11th-highest in the majors among qualified starters, and that’s led to a major spike in home runs. San Francisco’s Oracle Park is one of the best in baseball at suppressing homers, however, meaning that Gray’s issues with the long ball would be tamped down significantly if he were to be dealt to San Francisco.

That all leaves him looking like a strong fit to join Webb and Ray in the 2026 rotation on paper, but it’s fair to point out that a solid on-paper fit doesn’t necessarily mean that a deal will get done or is even particularly likely. Gray has been in the rumor mill as a potential trade candidate frequently over the past year but has routinely declined the opportunity to waive his no-trade clause in search of greener pastures. The Cardinals have indicated a willingness to move him both this past offseason and at this summer’s trade deadline, but Gray has rebuffed those efforts on both occasions. That doesn’t mean his feelings on the matter can’t change this offseason with the Cardinals likely to miss the postseason and a new head of baseball operations in Chaim Bloom slated to take over following John Mozeliak’s impending retirement, but as of now Gray has shown no desire to leave St. Louis behind.

Getting Gray to agree to a trade may be easier for the Giants than it would be for other clubs. As Slusser notes, Gray is very familiar with the Bay Area after spending the first four-and-a-half seasons of his career pitching for the A’s in Oakland, and during that time he played for and grew close with current Giants manager Bob Melvin. Slusser writes that Melvin and Gray have remained close in the years since their time together in Oakland, and it’s not hard to imagine that a homecoming to the place where he started his career to play for a manager he’s fond of would be a tempting offer for Gray. That’s particularly true if the Cardinals don’t look especially likely to compete in 2026 after what’s likely to be three consecutive seasons without a playoff berth.

Of course, even if Gray agrees to a deal with San Francisco, there’s still the matter of actually working out a trade with the Cardinals. St. Louis surely knows that Gray is an attractive asset and would hope to market him to more clubs than just the Giants if he agrees to be dealt, though Gray would be able to curate the list of teams he’d be willing to accept a deal to. Plenty of teams might be put off trading for the right-hander by the massive $35MM salary he’s owed in 2026 by virtue of his back-loaded contract with St. Louis, to say nothing of the $5MM buyout that will most likely be owed on a 2027 mutual option.

That’s effectively a $40MM investment on a pitcher who is more projection than production over the past two years, and Slusser suggests that the Giants would likely only be willing to offer a meaningful return for Gray’s services if the Cardinals eat a significant portion of his salary. That’s certainly not an unreasonable stance, but for a Cardinals club without much money on the books for 2026 they might prefer to just hold onto Gray in hopes he can help them compete next year or pitch well enough to command a larger return next summer if they can’t get much other than salary relief for his services.

Gray, of course, isn’t the only player who could feasibly be targeted by the Giants this winter. Slusser suggests that Luis Castillo could be made available by the Mariners this winter after the Giants pursued him last year, and perhaps one of the heavily-discussed arms from the deadline who didn’t move like Sandy Alcantara or Joe Ryan could be dealt as well. As for free agency, a number of interesting arms are set to be available including Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Brandon Woodruff, and Zac Gallen. That, of course, is in addition to Verlander, who has a 3.18 ERA with a 2.75 FIP since the All-Star break and may be a preferred option to bring back for the Giants given his second-half performance.

Sonny Gray Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause Prior To Deadline

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Cardinals ace Sonny Gray was briefly in trade rumors this past offseason but quickly quashed them when he told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he wasn’t keen on waiving the full no-trade clause in his contract. Gray’s name has at least tangentially popped back up on the rumor mill with the July deadline now just three days away. The right-hander tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Mozeliak recently revisited the subject of Gray waiving his no-trade clause.

The 35-year-old Gray declined to elaborate beyond the mere fact that he and Mozeliak had recently talked about the matter. However, MLB.com’s John Denton reports that during that conversation, the right-hander again conveyed that he prefers to stay in St. Louis — at least for the remainder of the current season. Barring a late change of heart, it seems Gray will remain with the Cardinals for the balance of the regular season.

The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported this weekend that the Cardinals would “entertain” offers on Gray and that Mozeliak had gauged interest from some clubs. Presumably, that was done in an effort to provide Gray with as much information as possible when having this conversation with him. There’s no indication that the Cardinals spent significant time workshopping trade offers before talking with Gray, but Mozeliak & Co. have surely fielded a wide swath of calls and texts regarding the availability of a notable portion of the roster.

A trade of Gray would likely have been difficult to piece together, though not necessarily due to his performance. It’s true that the veteran righty has turned in ugly outings in consecutive starts, ballooning his ERA from 3.50 to 4.33 over his past two outings thanks to a combined 14 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. However, he’s also less than a month removed from an 11-strikeout one-hit shutout of the Guardians and obviously has a lengthy track record as a high-quality big league starter. Recent ERA spike notwithstanding, Gray boasts a 26.7% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate on the year — both excellent marks, with the latter in particular registering as elite. Metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.09) portray him far more favorably than his recently inflated earned run average.

Gray’s contract is another matter entirely — and a far more complicating factor, at that. The former AL Cy Young runner-up’s three-year, $75MM deal is heavily backloaded, which would surely prove a hurdle in any trade talks. He’s in the second season of that pact but earned just $10MM in year one of the deal. He’s making $25MM this year, with about $8.333MM yet to be paid out as of this writing, and he’s in line for a $35MM salary next year. Gray’s contract also contains a $30MM club option for 2027 that comes with a $5MM buyout (which is included in his guarantee).

As such, even though Gray is past the halfway point of the contract, he’s still owed a whopping $48.333MM for the remaining one and one-third seasons on his contract. That’s nearly 65% of the contract’s total value. The $5MM buyout on his 2027 option is deferred over a five-year period, but that does little to reduce the sizable net-present value of what’s left on the contract.

If the Cardinals were willing to take on a notable portion of that sum, they’d obviously be able to extract a better net return. As things stand, one-plus year of Gray at nearly $50MM doesn’t exactly afford surplus value. Even if a team valued Gray as a $30MM-per-year starting pitcher, his contract would be slightly underwater. All of that is rendered moot by Gray’s preference to stay in St. Louis. The Cardinals could revisit the situation in the offseason, but Gray would still be owed a $35MM salary and that deferred $5MM buyout. It’s a hefty sum, particularly entering his age-36 season.

That said, the Cardinals could have some extra motivation to get a deal done this offseason. One of the driving factors behind their dormant offseason was a desire to not only trim payroll but to clear playing time for younger players who could be core pieces. The Cards already opened up one rotation spot for young Michael McGreevy when they designated Erick Fedde for assignment (and subsequently traded him to Atlanta).

Moving Gray would further open up innings for young arms while simultaneously trimming notable money from the payroll. If the Cardinals were to eat enough of Gray’s contract in the offseason, they could extract some genuine prospect talent. That’s not necessarily the goal, however. Goold wrote in a chat with readers today that the organization would look to clear as much of Gray’s salary as possible — doing so “ahead of any other considerations.”

Cardinals Mulling Six-Man Rotation

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The Cardinals are considering opening the season with a six-man rotation, manager Oliver Marmol revealed this morning (link via John Denton of MLB.com). Doing so would allow the club to get righty Michael McGreevy some starts alongside Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante and Steven Matz.

St. Louis has a veteran-laden rotation that includes two pitchers (Gray, Mikolas) who might’ve been trade candidates this winter were it not for full no-trade protection in both of their deals. Matz’s $12MM salary made him difficult for the Cards to move as well, and the team chose not to deal Fedde despite the right-hander having just one season left on his contract as the organization enters something of a transition year that was intended to focus on developing younger players.

McGreevy, 24, was the Cardinals’ first-round pick back in 2021 and made a brief MLB debut in 2024, tossing 23 innings with a 1.96 ERA and an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio. He also pitched to a 4.02 earned run average with a 21.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 49% ground-ball rate in 150 Triple-A frames. He currently ranks 10th among Cardinals prospects at Baseball America and 11th at MLB.com. He’s also already made 51 starts at the Triple-A level over the past two seasons and thus has little left to prove at the top minor league level.

So far in camp, McGreevy has pitched 11 2/3 innings and held opponents to a pair of runs on nine hits. He hasn’t walked any of the 43 batters he’s faced and has kept the ball on the ground at a nice 47.1% clip, though his 18.6% strikeout rate is a ways below average. Be that as it may, it’s been an undeniably strong camp for a former first-rounder who looks largely ready for an earnest big league audition.

There are obviously factors that could yet change the composition of a potential six-man group. Injuries are abundant this time of year and could impact any rotation at any point. The Cards were at least reported to be “open” to offers on Fedde earlier this month, though there’s no real indication they’re seriously pursuing a trade of the affordable right-hander, who’s earning $7.5MM this year. They’ve also been considering left-hander and former top prospect Matthew Liberatore for rotation work, although president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said late last week that at least initially, the expectation was that Liberatore would break camp as a reliever (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

DeWitt: Cardinals Would Not Need To Cut Spending Elsewhere If No Arenado Trade

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Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. spoke with reporters on Monday afternoon to conclude the organization’s Winter Warm-Up weekend. Unsurprisingly, he touched on the team’s biggest offseason storyline: the Nolan Arenado trade discussions.

Most notably, DeWitt said that the team wasn’t motivated to cut payroll in another area if they can’t line up an Arenado deal. “No, I don’t think so,” he replied when asked if a failure to trade the third baseman meant they needed to slash spending elsewhere (link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak made similar comments over the weekend, suggesting that ownership was supporting a higher payroll than the front office initially expected “because we haven’t been able to accomplish what we thought we would by now (on the trade market).”

Much of that is due to the no-trade rights of the Cards’ most expensive players. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray each indicated they preferred to stay in St. Louis rather than waive their no-trade clauses. Arenado was more open to a trade in theory, though he nixed a deal to the Astros. That confirmed he’d be particular about his next destination if he were to move.

The Cardinals are on the hook for $64MM of the $74MM owed to Arenado over the next three seasons. The Rockies are responsible for $5MM annually over the next two years. A combined $12MM in salary over the next two seasons is deferred, reducing the Cardinals’ portion of the contract’s remaining net present value to around $60MM.

St. Louis has primarily focused on salary relief. The Astros were reportedly set to assume at least $45MM of the remaining money had Arenado not vetoed the trade. With Houston quickly moving on, talks have quieted over the past month. Mozeliak made clear over the weekend that the Cardinals are still trying to line up a trade that makes sense for everyone involved. That has been more challenging than the organization anticipated.

Nevertheless, there’s still a chance for a late-offseason deal. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that there are multiple teams that would be open to circling back on Arenado if the Cardinals are open to paying down a bigger portion of the contract. It remains to be seen whether St. Louis will eventually be willing to do that, but they’re generally downplaying the need to make trades to cut spending at this point. There’s also the matter of free agency delaying the trade market. Alex Bregman remains unsigned and there’s surely some overlap between the teams involved on the two players.

Goold adds that some teams have called the Cardinals to see whether they can talk Gray off his opposition to waiving the no-trade clause. There’s nothing to suggest the righty is reconsidering that stance, though there’s no harm for other teams in trying to change his mind. Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons on his backloaded three-year free agent deal. He turned in a 3.84 ERA over 28 starts during his first season with St. Louis.

Cards Moving Willson Contreras To First Base; Contreras Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause

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As he heads into the third season of his five-year, $87.5MM contract, Willson Contreras is headed for a position change. The Cardinals plan to move Contreras from catcher to first base next season, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters at the GM Meetings today that the move to a first base/designated hitter role was made with Contreras’ long-term health and longevity in mind, adding that he’s “unlikely” to catch much at all in 2025 (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic).

Mozeliak added that Contreras was quite clear about his desire to remain in St. Louis even as the team embarks on something of a reset (via Woo). That makes it unlikely he’d be willing to waive his full no-trade clause this offseason. It’s a similar story with right-hander Sonny Gray, it seems. Mozeliak didn’t directly state as much, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Gray has also expressed a preference to remain with the Cardinals. Like Contreras, Gray has full no-trade protection.

The move to first base for Contreras opens the path for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages to split time behind the plate. It’s perhaps possible that an injury to one or both players could result in Contreras suiting up and crouching behind home plate once again, but it seems the organization’s preference is a shift away from that role. It’s the latest in a winding saga with the Cardinals’ seeming distaste for Contreras’ defense — one that began just weeks into his first season with the club.

The Cardinals announced early in the 2023 season that Contreras would be moving off catcher for at least a few weeks. At the time, Mozeliak stressed that Contreras hadn’t caught his last game for the club but added that the team had grown accustomed to Yadier Molina’s glovework behind the dish, adding that “this is going to take a little time to get him to where we feel he understands the expectations of what this role is for us.” It was a stunning announcement less than two months into a five-year contract, and one that generated even more confusion when Contreras returned to catching just one week later.

With the contract now 40% complete, Contreras appears ticketed for a more permanent move off the position. The 32-year-old has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher, but the ongoing questions about the Cardinals’ satisfaction with his defense (or lack thereof) has at multiple points prompted questions about why the team signed him to a five-year deal in the first place. Those questions will only grow louder now. Statcast has generally given Contreras plus grades for his throwing and rated him as a solid blocker, though his framing skills have been panned. He’s lived up to his end of the deal at the plate, however, hitting a combined .263/.367/.468 in 853 plate appearances. A broken forearm and finger, among other smaller injuries, have limited his time on the field, but Contreras has generally been one of the Cardinals’ best hitters when healthy.

That’ll presumably continue as he moves into a new role on the field. Contreras’ position shift seems likely to close the door on a potential reunion with free agent Paul Goldschmidt, who’ll now look to rebound elsewhere after a disappointing finish to his St. Louis tenure. It’ll also finally give the 24-year-old Herrera a crack at the starting catcher role for which he’s appeared ready for several years.

Herrera was thought to be a potential heir to Molina behind the plate, but any such hopes were dashed when the Cards originally signed Contreras. He’s a .289/.365/.398 hitter in 325 major league plate appearances (117 wRC+) and carries a stout .281/.414/.453 slash in 176 Triple-A contests. Pages, 26, hit .238/.281/.376 in 218 big league plate appearances in 2024. The righty hitter did post solid offensive numbers as a 24-year-old in Double-A in 2023, but scouting reports on him have questioned his hit tool while characterizing him as a likelier platoon option or backup.

Turning to Gray, his apparent desire to remain in St. Louis makes him a less obvious trade candidate than he was entering the winter. The Cards were reported to be open to offers on Gray even before they publicly revealed their plan for a step-back to focus on player development. Gray’s no-trade clause and heavily backloaded contract were always significant roadblocks in a potential trade, but ones that potentially seemed surmountable. He was quite selective about his destination in free agency, preferring to be relatively close to his Nashville home. Still, there was some thought that a trade to a geographically close club might hold appeal.

Working out such a swap would’ve been complicated. Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract paid him just $10MM in year one. He’s owed $65MM over the course of the next two seasons. That’s a huge number for an acquiring club to take on, particularly if said club has luxury-tax concerns (e.g. the Braves). A team acquiring a contract is taxed on the remainder of the deal rather than the original AAV, meaning a new club would be on the hook for a $32.5MM luxury hit in acquiring Gray. Those hurdles are all rendered moot, however, if Gray prefers to remain in St. Louis and see how things play out in the short-term.

Mozeliak told reporters today that he spoke to all of his players with no-trade clauses. That means he’s at least broached the possibility with third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s not yet clear, however, whether Arenado is as convicted in his desire to remain on board through the team’s reset. Certainly, the lack of comments or concrete reporting on the matter doesn’t mean Arenado is requesting or even open to a trade, but the lack of information on him will fuel natural speculation. Arenado’s trade from Colorado to St. Louis, after all, was prompted by his frustration over the Rockies’ inability to field a competitive roster. Playing for a contending club was a priority for him — so much so that he passed on an opt-out opportunity in his contract to remain in St. Louis due in large part to their status as perennial contenders.

Arenado now has three years and $74MM remaining on his contract. The Rockies are on the hook for $5MM of that sum. He’s had two straight pedestrian seasons at the plate, batting .269/.320/.426 since 2023. That’s still slightly better than league-average production by measure of wRC+ but is a far cry from his MVP-caliber 2022 showing when he hit .293/.358/.553. Whether he can bounce back as he heads into his age-34 campaign is an open question, but Arenado remains an elite defender with rare durability. He’s missed 28 games over the past two seasons but has played in 94.6% of his teams’ games dating back to the 2015 season.

Cardinals Notes: Winn, Gray, Romero, Additional Hires

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Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn had surgery to remove a cyst from his hand following the season, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak revealed at yesterday at a press conference to introduce new hitting coach Brant Brown and new assistant GM Rob Cerfolio (X link via John Denton of MLB.com). Winn recently had the stitches removed, and the minor procedure isn’t expected to impact his offseason routine.

The 22-year-old Winn was a bright spot in a lackluster season that has prompted the Cardinals to step back, focus on player development and embark on something of a reset. They’re widely expected to listen to offers on various veterans this offseason, and Mozeliak has already stated that the club’s payroll will go down next year.

None of the Cardinals’ 2024 shortcomings can be pinned on Winn. The budding star played his first full big league season and turned in a solid .267/.314/.416 batting line with 15 homers, 32 doubles, five triples and 11 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). He fanned in a well below-average 17.1% of his plate appearances and coupled that sound offensive game with excellent glovework at shortstop. Winn slumped badly in the season’s final month (.196/.234/.382) but was hitting .283/.330/.424 through Sept. 1. It’s not clear if the cyst hampered his swing down the stretch, but it won’t be an issue going forward one way or the other.

Elsewhere on the injury front, Mozeliak provided encouraging updates on right-hander Sonny Gray and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero (X link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Gray finished the 2024 season on the injured list due to right forearm inflammation but is expected to have a normal offseason. Like Gray, Romero finished the season on the shelf due to inflammation in his flexor tendon. He’s just now progressing to a throwing program that will dictate how the rest of his offseason plays out. The Cardinals don’t anticipate any additional surgeries beyond Winn’s minor procedure, according to Mozeliak.

The health of both Gray and Romero is of extra intrigue, given the Cardinals’ shift in direction. Both veterans could be candidates to be traded over the winter. Gray is entering the second season of a three-year, $75MM contract and will have his say over where or whether he’s moved, as that pact included a full no-trade provision. That, coupled with the backloaded nature of the contract, could make him a tricky trade candidate. He earned $10MM of his $75MM guarantee this past season. He’ll be paid $25MM in 2025 and $35MM in 2026, with a $5MM buyout on an option for the 2027 season. Gray, the AL Cy Young runner-up with the Twins in 2023, pitched to a 3.84 ERA in 166 1/3 innings with St. Louis this past season.

Romero is a more straightforward case. The 28-year-old is arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter — projected for a $1.9MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — and is under  club control for another two seasons. He’s coming off a career-best 3.36 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, a 6.6% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and 30 holds. Romero was unhittable against lefties (.181/.244/.250) but yielded a far less encouraging .264/.329/.466 line to right-handers. Still, as an affordable and relatively controllable lefty who averages 95.1 mph on his heater and is no stranger to high-leverage spots, he’d surely draw interest as the Cardinals look to boost their farm system.

Changes throughout the Cardinals organization are just getting started. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the newly hired Cerfolio will now be tasked with hiring a new director of performance and a new farm director. Cerfolio will assist Chaim Bloom in leading both departments. Goold notes that the player development and player performance departments were previously separate entities but will be more cohesive.

“It never got to the point where we got to the point it was running at 100% in terms of collaboration,” Mozeliak said of the prior player development and player performance setup. Goold’s piece includes quotes from Mozeliak on the additions of Cerfolio, Brown and outfield coach Jon Jay, detailing what drew the Cardinals to each and also further laying out the plans for additional hires. Cards fans will want to give it a read for a full preview of what’s to come in the weeks and months ahead.

With regard to the roster itself, it’s increasingly clear what direction the Cardinals will take this winter with every media availability from their decision-makers. Mozeliak has already informed several of the team’s veterans of a plan to field a younger club, Denton tweets. “Ultimately, the direction that we’re going to be going, it’s going to be creating some opportunities for our younger players,” Mozeliak said.

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