Extension Candidates: AL East
There’s no baseball in the present, which has many fans turning to the past, as broadcasters are helping us addicts get our fix by filling the air with classic games from days gone by. But what about the future? Which players are logical fits for contract extensions for the days yet to come?
We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central and NL West. Now it’s time to switch over to the Junior Circuit and check in on the AL East.
Blue Jays
The youth movement is in full effect north of the border, as the team currently has no position players on the 40-man roster who have reached their 30th birthday. That means there are extension candidates up and down the line. From the team’s perspective, they would surely love to lock up their young core players of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, all of whom have less than a year of service time and are therefore at least two years away from arbitration. However, since all three are the sons of retired big leaguers who made millions during their playing days, they might not be as motivated as some other players to sign away years of free agency in exchange for the security of having guaranteed money in the bank.
One promising youngster without a famous lineage is catcher Danny Jansen. The team could have some desire to lock him up if they think he’s their catcher of the future. But does the team still believe that after his lackluster offensive numbers in 2019?
On the pitching side, the most promising young arm is prospect Nate Pearson, who hasn’t even made it onto the roster yet. We’ve seen some recent extensions given to players before their MLB debuts, such as Luis Robert, Evan White and Eloy Jimenez, but none for pitchers just yet. One wild card is Ken Giles. The 29-year-old has been lights out since leaving Houston and is one year away from free agency. But because of injury concerns, perhaps the right deal could give him enough peace of mind to forgo the open market.
Orioles
The Orioles are about as full into rebuild as a team can be. And the path out of the AL East basement seems to be long and arduous. But one way to brighten the light at the end of the tunnel would be to lock in some quality players for the happier days down the road. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of guys that currently meet that description.
The team had four players produce more than 2.0 fWAR in 2019. Two of them are now on different teams (Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar). And another, Trey Mancini, is suddenly in an uncertain position after recently undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon.
That leaves only hurler John Means, who had a fantastic breakout season in 2019. And since he’s about to turn 27 and is two years away from arbitration, he might want to lock up some cash while he can. But from the team perspective, Means might not be worth betting on at this stage. His 2019 ERA of 3.60 was nice, but FIP and xFIP are less bullish, pegging him at 4.41 and 5.48, respectively. It would be prudent for the Orioles to be patient and see if he has the ability to find repeat success.
Rays
The cash-strapped Rays are big fans of the extension, having signed 11 of them in the decade that just ended. Since they almost never reel in big fish in free agency, Charlie Morton notwithstanding, extensions are the best way for them to get bang for their buck and keep talent on the roster. Just a few weeks ago, they were reportedly discussions extensions with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows.
As for Glasnow, he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019. He just reached arbitration as a Super Two and could conceivably make some decent money with four trips through arbitration. The club would surely prefer to put a cap on his earnings ceiling if they could. And since Glasnow struggled through his first few years in Pittsburgh, he might welcome the security of guaranteed cash to insure himself against those struggles returning. But because of injuries, he only logged 60 2/3 innings last year. He still hasn’t proven he can maintain his abilities over a full season. Until he does, that limits his leverage in negotiations.
As for Meadows, he had a tremendous season in 2019, putting up the kind of classical power numbers that should reward him well in arbitration. As long as he can stay healthy and repeat them. But since arbitration is still two years away, perhaps a compromise could be worked out wherein he gets more money now but sacrifices the top end of his earning power.
In terms of other guys, there are a whole whack of them that the Rays could try to nail down before they start getting paid real money. The list includes Joey Wendle, Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a big batch of relievers. But of course, with the Rays, there’s always a decent chance they’ll just trade a guy as soon as they get uncomfortable with his cost.
Red Sox
After trading away Mookie Betts and David Price and then losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, it might feel like the Red Sox are a hollowed-out husk. But there’s still a lot of talent on the roster that they should want to keep around. And now that they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the luxury tax barrier, they should have some room on the payroll to actually do it.
Andrew Benintendi recently signed a two-year deal. But he will still have one arbitration year remaining after that. That means he would hit the free agent market as a 28-year-old, potentially lining himself up for a nice payday, unless the Sox pay him first. Eduardo Rodriguez just had his best season and could also reach free agency at 28. He’s making $8.3MM in 2020 and still has one more pass through arbitration remaining. With Price and Sale gone, and Eovaldi’s injury history, it could make sense to keep Rodriguez around for a few more years for some rotation stability.
Rafael Devers won’t even get into arbitration until after this season. And since he’s only 23, he could bank some cash, give away a few free agent years and still reach the open market before he turns 30. Alex Verdugo is just a bit older but has one more year of team control than Devers. If Boston believed in him enough to make him the centrepiece of their return for giving up a franchise player like Mookie Betts, they must believe he’s capable of helping them down the road.
Yankees
The big-spending Yankees of old seem to have returned, after they blew way past the luxury tax for 2020. But you can never rule out another dump truck of money coming around the corner. They’re the Yankees, after all.
They already struck gold with the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. He somehow managed to have his best offensive output during a season in which he turned 31, and after leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field. Last month, it didn’t seem like anything was imminent. But that doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t be reached at some point this year to prevent him going on the block. James Paxton is also just one year away from free agency. But given his persistent injuries, would the Yankees bet on him in a big way?
Of course, the 6’7″ elephant in the room is Aaron Judge. The delayed start to the season is giving him a chance to convalesce and approach full health. The slugger will make $8.5MM in 2020 and still has two passes through arbitration remaining before he hits free agency as a 30-year-old. Will the Yankees shell out the big bucks to keep the fan favorite around? Or does his injury history give them pause? Gary Sanchez is in a similar position, but just a few months younger than Judge and with a slightly smaller salary at $5MM.
In the pre-arb department, Gleyber Torres is the shining star. He is sure to reach arbitration after 2020 as a Super Two, meaning he’ll have four chances to get a raise through arbitration unless the Yanks can fork over enough to get him not to. Since he’s on pace to reach the open market at 27, he could give up a few free agent years and still become a free agent at a relatively young age.
AL Notes: McBroom, Tuivailala, Choi
Royals first baseman Ryan McBroom caught the eye of Mike Matheny before Kansas City even acquired him and before Matheny was the team’s manager, writes Alec Lewis of The Athletic in an interesting profile of the 27-year-old (subscription required). Matheny, a special advisor with the Royals last year, was taking in a Red Sox Triple-A game to watch his son, Tate; Boston’s Triple-A club was playing the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, and Matheny happened to catch the Scranton club on a night when McBroom blasted two of the 26 long balls he hit in Triple-A last year. Two days later — and not through any recommendation of his own — Matheny was further surprised when the Royals acquired McBroom from the Yankees. As Lewis details, McBroom’s play following a September call-up and a very strong spring have positioned him to occupy a bench spot with the Royals at the very least.
Some more news from around the American League..
- It was something of a surprise to see the Mariners cut ties with right-handed reliever Sam Tuivailala last week, but Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that shoulder fatigue has troubles 27-year-old since last year. The issue began while Tuivailala was rehabbing from a torn Achilles, and it culminated this spring with an alarming velocity drop. Tuivailala, who averaged 96.4 mph on his heater with the Cardinals in 2015 and 95.2 mph in his last mostly healthy season (2018) sat 85-86 mph and didn’t top 88 mph on the radar gun this spring, per Divish. Because he’s out of minor league options, the Mariners wouldn’t have been able to send him down to the minor leagues to build up arm strength, either.
- Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi will fly back to his native South Korea this week, writes Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency. Choi will quarantine himself for the first two weeks of his return but then plans to begin working out with his brother, who runs a training facility in their hometown. That facility will be closed until early April as South Korea endeavors to slow the spread of the Coronavirus, but if able to reopen, that would seemingly provide Choi a better avenue to prepare for the season than he has in Florida, where both Tropicana Field and the Rays’ spring complex are closed. Since being acquired in a 2018 trade with the Brewers (which sent Brad Miller to Milwaukee), Choi has batted a combined .263/.365/.472 with 27 home runs, 32 doubles and three triples in 676 plate appearances (125 OPS+).
Quick Hits: Howard, International Prospects, Smith, Pirates
A shortened 2020 season would make Spencer Howard a larger factor in the Phillies‘ plans, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Since Howard threw only 71 minor league innings in 2019 due to shoulder problems and was shut down at midseason, the Phils were going to ease him back into action this year under an innings limit at both the minor league and (if all things progressed well) Major League levels. If the 2020 season ends up being something of an abbreviated sprint, however, the right-handed prospect could end up pitching for Philadelphia as early as the new Opening Day, working in a starting or relief role and still potentially not approaching an innings cap that Lauber estimates could be around 130 frames of work.
A few more items as we kick off Sunday…
- Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks at five prospects who are lined up to join Major League teams when the international signing window opens on July 2. The Padres, Brewers, Braves, Indians, and Rangers have already been respectively connected to each of the five youngsters, with Atlanta and Cleveland each prepared to give out bonuses in the $1MM range.
- Fraidel Liriano, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, is expected to land the largest bonus of the quintet, as Badler writes that the Rangers will give Liriano around $1.5MM. Liriano could eventually wind up at third base or second base rather than shortstop, though some scouts were intrigued by his hitting potential, with Liriano’s “strong hands and quick wrists, producing whippy bat speed.”
- Twelve teams contacted Kevan Smith during the catcher’s free agent stint this winter, Smith tells John Perrotto of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, though he was surprised to be on the open market at all. The Angels non-tendered Smith rather than go through the arbitration process with him (MLBTR projected Smith to earn a $1.3MM salary in 2020), a decision that left Smith feeling “pretty stunned…I thought I was on solid footing there.” Smith ended up signing a minor league deal with the Rays after surveying his options, saying, “You start looking around and see what’s going to be your best opportunity and what team you’re most comfortable with. You pick and choose, and it comes down to who’s the most interested. I definitely felt the Rays wanted me to be here.” Playing in Tampa Bay also brings Smith to the East Coast and at least a bit closer to his home in Pennsylvania, though the Pittsburgh native said he didn’t hear from the Pirates this winter, despite the Bucs’ need for catching.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, LeBlanc, Phillips, Orioles
Should the Red Sox reload or rebuild? The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham votes for the latter option, arguing that Chris Sale‘s season-ending injury should inspire the Sox to “consider trading anybody outside of Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Eduardo Rodriguez.” (Personally speaking, I’d also add Christian Vazquez and Andrew Benintendi to Abraham’s no-trade list.) Such a move may seem drastic, though the Red Sox already faced a tough battle to reach the playoffs in 2020 even with Sale, and that was assuming the left-hander was able to rebound from a down year in 2019. With building blocks like Bogaerts and Devers already in place and their luxury tax penalties reset to zero, Boston could look to get back into playoff contention as early as 2021 after trading veterans for the right young talent, and then adding some other higher-priced players in trades or free agency.
Some more from around the AL East…
- It all could be something of a moot point given the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times looked at how the Rays‘ roster was shaping up in the latter days of Spring Training. Bullpen-wise, Nick Anderson was looking like the favorite for the majority of save chances, while non-roster invitee Aaron Loup was working towards winning a roster spot, which would have required Tampa to clear a space on its 40-man roster. Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann, two other veterans in camp on non-roster invites, had seemingly fallen behind Michael Perez in the backup catcher competition. Though the Rays were preparing to deploy five regular starting pitchers, Topkin notes that the Rays were still planning to use openers every once in a while, as a way of managing injuries or giving the regular starters a break if necessary.
- Thursday was the opt-out date in Wade LeBlanc‘s minor league contract with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. We’re reaching the end of the 48-hour window for the club to put LeBlanc on its 40-man roster or release him, assuming some other arrangement hasn’t been made in the wake of the shutdown. Regardless, Kubatko feels LeBlanc is a lock to make the roster, and getting selected would guaranteed an $800K salary for LeBlanc in 2020.
- In another piece from Kubatko, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that no Orioles players are set to undergo any medical procedures. This includes right-hander Evan Phillips, who dealt with some soreness in his throwing elbow in early March and recently met with Dr. Neal ElAttrache for a second opinion about the issue.
Coronavirus Plan Updates: Cardinals, Astros, Mets, Royals, Rays
Teams have taken various approaches in the wake of the coronavirus hiatus. Some more details have emerged about how a few teams plan to handle the unpredictable situation.
- The Cardinals had initially planned to largely disperse, with only ten to fifteen players remaining at the team’s Florida complex. It seems they’ve reversed course somewhat. Fifteen to twenty-five players will stick around for the time being, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. They’ll continue to work out informally, but they unsurprisingly plan to pare back the training intensity, especially on the pitching side. Cardinals officials anticipate an eventual abbreviated “2.0 spring training,” in the words of manager Mike Shildt, that’ll last around two weeks in advance of MLB’s official regular season start date. Technically, MLB could return as soon as April 9, but it’s unlikely games will get underway until at least May.
- The Astros will split into two groups to train, pitcher Lance McCullers announced (h/t to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Some members of the club will remain in the team’s spring complex in Florida, while others are headed back to Houston. The players plan to work out collectively.
- Most of the Mets‘ coaching staff will stay at the team’s Florida spring complex, as will many players on the team, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Newsday’s Tim Healey recently reported that most of the team would stay put.
- As of yesterday, the Royals were holding tight at their Arizona spring facility, reports Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. As pitcher Danny Duffy acknowledged to Worthy, the fluid situation could call for a change in plans at any time.
- A good portion of the Rays’ roster is holding tight at the team’s spring complex for now. 30-35 players took part in an informal workout yesterday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Unlike some other clubs, Tampa has no plans to conduct any sort of team-wide vote on the matter, Topkin adds, preferring to let players decide on a case-by-case basis their preferred course of action.
Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays
After reaching the ALDS last season, the Rays had their usual busy offseason in search of the roster mix that could bring them into championship contention.
Major League Signings
- Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: Two years, $12MM (plus $2.4MM in posting/release fees to Yokohama DeNA BayStars)
- Total spend: $14.4MM
Trades And Claims
- Acquired OF Hunter Renfroe and IF prospect Xavier Edwards from the Padres for OF Tommy Pham and minor league IF/RP Jake Cronenworth
- Acquired 1B/OF Jose Martinez, OF Randy Arozarena, and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick from the Cardinals for LHP prospect Matthew Liberatore, C prospect Edgardo Rodriguez, and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick
- Acquired OF Manuel Margot and C/OF prospect Logan Driscoll from the Padres for RP Emilio Pagan
- Acquired OF prospect Cal Stevenson and RHP prospect Peyton Battenfield from the Astros for RP Austin Pruitt
- Acquired cash considerations and a player to be named later from the Reds for RHP Jose De Leon
- Acquired 1B/OF Brian O’Grady from the Reds for cash considerations and a player to be named later
- Acquired IF prospect Curtis Mead from the Phillies for LHP prospect Cristopher Sanchez
Notable Minor League Signings
- Kevan Smith, Aaron Loup, Chris Herrmann, Dylan Covey, Sean Gilmartin, Ryan LaMarre, Brooks Pounders, Aaron Slegers, Deck McGuire, John Curtiss, Johnny Davis, D.J. Snelten
Notable Losses
- Avisail Garcia, Travis d’Arnaud, Eric Sogard, Guillermo Heredia, Jesus Aguilar, Matt Duffy, Pagan, Pruitt, Liberatore
After finishing second among Tampa Bay position players with a 3.3 fWAR in 2019, Tommy Pham found himself heading out of town, sent to the Padres as part of a four-player deal. The minor leaguers exchanged in that deal — highly-touted infielder Xavier Edwards and a potential two-way threat in Jake Cronenworth — are certainly noteworthy, with the Rays getting the slightly longer-term prospect in Edwards while Cronenworth could help San Diego as early as this season. But, looking at just the big-league return in the trade, the Rays sent an older, pricier, but more established hitter in Pham to the Padres for the powerful but less-polished young slugger in Hunter Renfroe.
With 70 homers over 1450 career plate appearances, we know Renfroe can mash, though his lifetime batting average (.235) and OBP (.294) leave much to be desired. 2019 saw Renfroe enjoy something of a breakout in the first half of the season before being hampered by injuries, though even Renfroe’s numbers prior to the All-Star break (.252/.308/.613 with 27 homers in 289 PA) showed only modest improvement in the average and on-base categories.
Nonetheless, Renfroe is almost four full years younger than Pham, brings more defensive versatility as an outfielder who can be deployed in center field in a pinch, and has a much lower price tag. Renfroe is controlled through the 2023 season as a Super Two player, and is set to earn $3.3MM in 2020, his first arbitration-eligible year. By contrast, Pham will earn $7.9MM in 2020, which is the second of three arb years.
In short, the deal almost seems like a prototypical Rays move — they got a bit younger, saved some money, and acquired a player in Renfroe who could offer enough untapped potential to be just as good or better than Pham in 2020 (plus, there’s also the lingering injury question of Pham’s elbow). Flexibility and depth continue to be paramount in Tampa’s approach to roster building, as the Rays can wield a lineup that offers a lot of different looks, and is stocked with players who could be moved around to different positions based on circumstances.
Consider the Rays’ major free agent signing of the winter, as they landed Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo after a focused recruitment process that convinced Tsutsugo to reject more expensive offers for Tampa Bay’s two-year, $12MM contract. Tsutsugo is a bit of a defensive question mark as a first baseman or left fielder, yet the Rays are planning to give Tsutsugo a look at third base; a position he hasn’t played since 2014.
It’s safe to assume that Yandy Diaz will end up getting the majority of playing time at third base, but if Tsutsugo can step in at the hot corner even once in a while to spell Diaz against a tough righty starter, that opens up a spot in the lineup for a left-handed hitting Joey Wendle, or perhaps another lefty bat in Nate Lowe (should Lowe make the Opening Day roster). Even if the Tsutsugo/third base experiment doesn’t work out, Wendle can play third base himself, and Tsutsugo could perhaps then just be slotted into the first base/DH mix.
Speaking of first base/DH candidates, the Rays added another prominent name to that list in acquiring Jose Martinez from the Cardinals. Rumors have swirled about the Rays’ interest in Martinez for well over a year, and the lefty-crushing slugger will now be the primary right-handed hitting first base/DH option, alongside the lefty-swinging Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Ji-Man Choi. While Martinez can play first base or a corner outfield spot, he is probably the rare Rays pickup who wasn’t targeted for his roster flexibility, due to Martinez’s longstanding defensive struggles.
Between Martinez, Tsutsugo, and Renfroe, the Rays hope they can replace or top the 57 home runs that departed last year’s lineup — Pham, Avisail Garcia (who signed with the Brewers) and Travis d’Arnaud (who signed with the Braves). The long ball wasn’t a big weapon for Tampa Bay in 2019, as their 217 homers ranked them 21st of the 30 teams, but that number could rise thanks to both the new faces and healthier seasons from the likes of Diaz, Wendle, and Brandon Lowe.
With Guillermo Heredia non-tendered and Garcia leaving in free agency, the Rays looked at such free agents as Yasiel Puig and Shogo Akiyama as options in the outfield. Instead, Tampa Bay bolstered its outfield depth by adding Randy Arozarena as part of the trade with the Cardinals, while also acquiring Manuel Margot in another trade with the Padres. It was only a few years ago that Margot was a consensus top-25 prospect in all of baseball, and while he has shown to be an excellent defender at the MLB level, his bat (84 wRC+, 87 OPS+) has yet to emerge. Since Margot is still only 25, it isn’t out of the question that he could be a late bloomer.
The Rays paid a pretty substantial price for Margot, sending their 2019 saves leader in Emilio Pagan westward. Pagan’s lone season in Tampa Bay was a very impressive one, as he recorded 20 saves while posting a 2.31 ERA, 7.38 K/BB rate, and 12.3 K/9 over 70 innings. Between Pagan, Austin Pruitt (dealt to the Astros), Jose De Leon, and Matthew Liberatore, the Rays did more subtracting than adding to their pitching, though Tampa is arguably one of the few teams deep enough in pitching options to handle dealing from a surplus.
To this end, the Rays will count on their collection of arms to manage the bullpen, with a closing committee of Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, and possibly others to handle save situations. As for the rotation, the Rays will can always fall back on using an opener if necessary, but the team looks ready to enter the season with a rotation of five proper starting pitchers: Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and likely one of Ryan Yarbrough or Brendan McKay. There is some uncertainty within that group given Glasnow’s injury-riddled 2019 and Snell’s nagging elbow problems, though both are expected to be ready by the time the 2020 season eventually gets underway.
As with basically any Rays player that makes a substantial salary, there was some speculation that Morton could be a trade chip now or in the near future, should Tampa Bay fall out of the pennant race. Morton is being paid $15MM in 2020 and (if he doesn’t retire) he has a vesting option on his services for 2021 that will be worth another $15MM if he spends less than 30 days on the injured list this season. The 36-year-old is still pitching at a very high level, and it makes sense why the Rays seemingly didn’t test the market for him this offseason, as Morton is even more valuable considering the lingering health questions surrounding Snell and Glasnow.
Pham ended up being the one larger salary moved off Tampa’s books, which was probably the more logical move than trading Morton since good outfield help is somewhat easier to find than a front-of-the-rotation pitcher. GM Erik Neander faces a difficult challenge in trying to manage a small budget while also trying to build a contender, and as such Rays trades are rarely as simple as a one-for-one swap. Getting young talent back in deals is of critical importance, whether it’s landing Edwards from San Diego, a higher Competitive Balance Round draft pick from St. Louis, or acquiring catching prospect Logan Driscoll from the Padres in the Pagan deal. Driscoll was the Padres’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and down the road he could develop into yet another “catcher of the future” candidate for a Rays franchise that has long looked for stability behind the plate.
After d’Arnaud signed with Atlanta, the Rays will head into 2020 with Mike Zunino as their starting catcher. Zunino’s struggles led to d’Arnaud taking over the regular job last season, leaving the Rays hoping that Zunino’s dreadful year was just an aberration. A couple of veteran backstops in Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann are in camp on minor league deals, and Michael Perez is in the in-house contender for the backup position. Unless Zunino gets on track during the season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays make catching a priority before the trade deadline.
Between dealing Pham, the free agent departures, and non-tendering players like Heredia, Jesus Aguilar, and Matt Duffy, the Rays opened up enough money to do some offseason spending without much changing their financial outlook. As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays have a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $67.6MM, which represents an increase of barely $150K over their season-ending 40-man roster payroll.
The Rays’ spending habits continue to draw attention from the MLBPA, whose grievance against the team’s use of revenue-sharing funds (in essence, wondering why those funds aren’t being spent on player salaries) was expanded to cover both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons. Grievance notwithstanding, it doesn’t appear as if much will change for the Rays on the payroll front unless they are finally able to land their long-desired new ballpark in Tampa or St. Petersburg…or perhaps one new stadium in the Tampa/St. Pete area and another in Montreal, should the organization’s unusual split-city concept comes to fruition.
2020 Season Outlook
If it’s possible for a team to quietly win 96 games, the Rays did just that in 2019, finishing just a game short of the highest win total in franchise history. Nothing Tampa Bay did this winter remotely came close to the Yankees’ $324MM splash on Gerrit Cole, and while New York’s on-paper roster seems far more star-studded than the Rays’ collection, Tampa finished only seven games out of the AL East lead last season. While the Yankees famously won 103 games despite a myriad of injuries last year, the Rays also achieved their success despite losing a number of key players for long stretches of time.
The American League will be more competitive on the whole in 2020, so even capturing another wild card would represent a nice achievement for the Rays. This could be particularly true since two ex-Rays executives are now running other AL rivals — the Red Sox hired former Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom as their new chief baseball officer, while the Astros hired former Rays VP of baseball operations James Click as their new GM in February, after Houston’s firing of Jeff Luhnow as a result of the sign-stealing scandal.
With other organizations trying to ape the Rays’ track record of quality acquisitions at low-cost prices, it leaves Neander and the remaining front office members with more of a challenge in keeping things afloat in Tampa Bay, especially with a roster that could be on the brink of a special season. It will be interesting to see how the Rays manage the assets of arguably the league’s best farm system in making further additions to this team in July, whether a major trade could take place, or whether the front office will continue this offseason’s pattern of somewhat quieter moves.
How would you grade the Rays’ offseason? (Link for app users.)
How would you grade the Rays' offseason?
-
B 50% (1,270)
-
A 22% (559)
-
C 22% (544)
-
D 4% (89)
-
F 2% (62)
Total votes: 2,524
Contract Renewals: Rays, Devers, Olson
In the wake of a couple of newsworthy pre-arbitration contract renewals over the weekend, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd took to YouTube on Monday to offer a detailed explanation of the process. If you’re interested in checking it out, click the video below:
Here are the some of latest and most notable team-imposed pre-arb salaries for 2020:
- The Rays have renewed the contracts of outfielder Austin Meadows and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Meadows will earn $578,900, and Yarbrough will get $563,400. In Meadows’ case, it’s possible he and the Rays will work out a long-term arrangement in the near future. There’s interest from both sides in making that happen, after the 24-year-old broke out in 2019 with a .291/.364/.558 line, 33 home runs and 12 steals. For now, Meadows still has five years of team control left; he’s not slated to even reach arbitration until after the 2021 season. Yarbrough has the same amount of control left, but the Super Two player is scheduled for his first trip through arbitration next winter. The 28-year-old was a rather effective member of the Rays’ pitching staff from 2018-19.
- The Red Sox have renewed third baseman Rafael Devers for $692,500, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. This will be the last pre-arb year for Devers, who’s eligible to reach arbitration for the first of three potential times next offseason. It stands to reason the Red Sox will try to keep Devers around for the long haul, considering his tremendous output last year, but the two parties haven’t engaged in extension talks yet.
- The Athletics have renewed first baseman Matt Olson on a $603,500 salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Oakland was interested in extending Olson as of last season, but there haven’t been any rumblings about his long-term future since June. If nothing changes by next winter, the big-hitting Olson will head to arbitration for the first of three possible trips.
Rays Have Opened Extension Talks With Glasnow, Meadows
The Rays have approached Tyler Glasnow‘s representatives at Wasserman and Austin Meadows‘ representatives at Excel Sports about potential long-term deals for the pair of burgeoning stars, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
There’s no indication that talks with either party have progressed beyond the preliminary stage, but the reaction from the pair is notable. Both say they’re open to such an arrangement, with Meadows saying he “definitely would be open to something like that” but Glasnow taking a bit more reserved approach. While the right-hander acknowledged that he’d listen to offers, he also made clear that he doesn’t want to “sell [himself] short” and that he has “no problem going year-to-year.”
Looking at the two as separate cases, Glasnow’s situation is a bit trickier. The right-hander was utterly dominant when healthy in 2019, pitching to a 1.78 ERA with averages of 11.3 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Unfortunately for both him and the Rays, a forearm strain limited the towering righty to 60 2/3 innings.
Glasnow was one of the game’s premier pitching prospects for years and, since being traded to the Rays, has broken out with 116 2/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball and nearly 11 punchouts per nine frames. He doesn’t have a long track record in the Majors, though, and his platform season was noticeably light on workload. Throw in that he’s a Super Two player who’s already set to earn $2.05MM in 2020, and it becomes a bit muddier when trying to determine what the two sides might deem a fair price point.
For context, Glasnow’s own teammate, Blake Snell, holds the record for largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of big league service time. Snell signed a five-year, $50MM contract just last spring, but he wasn’t a Super Two player at the time of that agreement. He was, however, fresh off a Cy Young win, which makes his case perhaps something of an outlier. The second-largest deal ever inked by a two-plus pitcher was German Marquez, who landed a five-year, $43MM deal (also last winter). Marquez wasn’t a Super Two player but tossed thrice as many innings as Glasnow in his platform season. Luis Severino was a Super Two with two-plus years of service time when he signed a four-year, $40MM deal with a club option for a fifth season in February 2019, but he was projected to earn more than double the $2.05MM to which Glasnow agreed for the upcoming season (by virtue of his 2017-18 workload).
The unique nature of Glasnow’s situation and his stated willingness to go year-to-year might make an agreement tough to hammer out. A healthy and productive season out of the righty, after all, would lead to a substantial raise. Mike Foltynewicz played out the 2018 season as a Super Two player on a $2.2MM salary and, after 183 innings of 2.85 ERA ball, saw a 149 percent raise to $5.475MM for the 2019 campaign. Even with some regression in terms of his ERA, Glasnow could be looking at similar financial upside if he can rack up the innings. There’s also virtually no circumstance in which he’d be in for a pay cut in 2021, so he’s looking at a minimum of $4.1MM over the next two seasons as it is. At the very least, he has a bit of security on his side now that he’s into arbitration.
Meadows is in a different situation. The 24-year-old has a year and 74 days of service, which places him two full seasons away from reaching arbitration. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and 12 steals in 591 plate appearances during a breakout 2019 campaign with the Rays. In doing so, he cemented himself as a fixture in the lineup for the foreseeable future. The Rays’ interest in keeping him cost-controlled is plenty sensible, as Tampa Bay has routinely had to move on from its players as their salaries escalate in arbitration (Tommy Pham and Corey Dickerson are recent examples in the outfield). That looks particularly likely to be the case with Meadows iff he goes year-to-year, as his power numbers would play quite well when he does reach arbitration in the 2021-22 offseason.
Looking for some historical comps, Christian Yelich‘s first extension — seven years and $49.57MM — is the largest ever signed by a player with between and two years of service. Ronald Acuna Jr. secured a $100MM payday with less than a year of service time, although that deal was an outlier and required him surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons in the process. Something closer to the first Yelich extension is a likelier base point, but that deal is five years old, so Meadows’ camp could aim to set a new precedent.
In the event that one or both do put pen to paper, the Rays’ 2020 payroll figures to be largely unaffected. Tampa Bay is set to again field one of the lowest-cost (but most-talented) rosters in baseball, with a projected Opening Day mark of just under $71MM. The Rays have about $34MM in guaranteed money on the books both in 2021 and in 2022, though, and that number dips to $24MM by the 2023 season. Fitting contract extensions for Meadows and/or Glasnow into the long-term budget shouldn’t be much of a reach — if the involved parties can years and dollars.
Quick Hits: COVID-19, Red Sox, Catching, Rays, Meadows Extension Talks
Commissioner Rob Manfred has a conference call planned with MLB owners on Monday to discuss the coronavirus, but all indications point to the season opening as planned, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich. MLB has been in contact with the CDC, and each team has a specified point person in charge of their specific situations. Locker room protocol across the North American sports landscape has been adjusted to help protect players from COVID-19, and fan access to players has also been limited as a precaution (though some players have prepared pre-signed autographs for fans at spring games). In Italy, all sporting events are planned to move forward without fans present, and the NBA has begun preparations for such a circumstance as well. As of right now, MLB plans to have fans present as the regular season kicks off at the end of March, but a lot can obviously change over the next three weeks.
- In non-virus news, catchers around the league are giving umpires a better view to call balls and strikes by receiving from a knee instead of the traditional crouch, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Christian Vazquez employed the stance for the Red Sox some last year, and the returns were good. He finished fifth in statcast’s Runs from Extra Strikes metric, trailing only Roberto Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers and Austin Hedges, the latter of whom led the field by a substantial margin. Red Sox interim manager Ron Roenicke notes that receiving from a knee makes it tougher to block pitches, but the premium placed on stealing strikes makes the tradeoff worth it on the whole.
- In contract news, the Rays and Austin Meadows have begun preliminary discussions about a potential extension, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Both sides are open to the possibility, though talks have not yet reached the exchange-of-numbers stage. After a monster 2019, Meadows won co-MVP honors for the team and proved himself a key offensive cog moving forward. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs (142 wRC+) in 2019. Locking up the soon-to-be 25-year-old would certainly be a boon for an organization ever-mindful of its financial limitations.
Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Mondesi, Dodgers
We’ll round up the latest health news from around MLB on this Sunday morning.
- Blake Snell will return to spring training action Monday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A bullpen session Friday went according to plan, Topkin adds, so the Rays feel comfortable allowing the 2018 AL Cy Young winner to begin building up innings in-game. It’s possible Snell won’t quite be ready for Opening Day, but it seems the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow last week isn’t indicative of any long-term issue.
- Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed recently by “mild elbow inflammation,” tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. At this point, the club doesn’t consider the issue a great concern, Bell adds. A full, healthy season from Carrasco would certainly be a plus for Cleveland, who has traded away Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in the past calendar year and saw Mike Clevinger go down for the season’s first month-plus with a partial meniscus tear.
- Royals’ shortstop Adalberto Mondesi has yet to make his spring training debut thanks to the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. His rehab was “paused” recently due to some soreness, manager Mike Matheny told reporters (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), but a visit Friday with his surgeon confirmed Mondesi is on schedule in his recovery. Kansas City continues to hold out hope the talented 24-year-old will be able to return by Opening Day.
- Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has the latest on a few Dodgers’ health situations. Mookie Betts has missed a few games of action with food poisoning, but he could return to the lineup Monday, manager Dave Roberts tells Plunkett. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson will make his first spring training start in minor-league camp today as he recovers from a hip injury, while right-hander Jimmy Nelson is set for a bullpen session. Nelson was briefly shut down with groin discomfort two weeks ago.