Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits
The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.
Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.
Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.
As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.
Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.
However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt‘s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.
Six Teams Interested In Ryan Brasier
Free agent reliever Ryan Brasier is drawing interest from at least six different teams, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Goold writes that the Cardinals and Dodgers are involved in the market, while Heyman writes that the Angels, Cubs, Orioles, and Rangers also have interest.
Brasier has already pitched for both Los Angeles teams, as he made his MLB debut with nine innings for the Angels back in 2013 and then seemingly got his career back on track with the Dodgers last season. The right-hander posted a 6.16 ERA over 83 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2021 and in the first two months of the 2022 campaign before he was released, and then signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in June.
Secondary metrics (especially in 2022) indicated that Brasier was pitching better than his ERA would indicate, and the turn-around came once he donned Dodger Blue. L.A. selected Brasier’s contract in late June and he was almost untouchable the rest of the way, posting an 0.70 ERA over 38 2/3 innings out of the Dodgers’ bullpen. Brasier had a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, and 51.1% grounder rate as a Dodger — all major improvements over his numbers in Boston last year, though Brasier also enjoyed a .183 BABIP in Los Angeles, as opposed to a .344 BABIP with the Red Sox.
As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings explored in August, Brasier started throwing a cutter for the first time in his career and the results were immediate. Not only did batters hit only .152 against Brasier’s new offering, he noted that “having another pitch to get guys off certain other pitches. But (while) working on the cutter, some other stuff started to come back.”
The cutter’s effectiveness adds yet another wrinkle to the up-and-down nature of Brasier’s career. After his cup of coffee with the Angels in 2013, he didn’t return to the majors until 2018, as the righty spent the interim years pitching with the Athletics’ Triple-A team and with the Hiroshima Carp in Japan. Brasier returned to North America by signing a minors deal with the Red Sox in 2018, and he unexpectedly emerged as a key bullpen weapon for the eventual World Series champions. Brasier had a 1.60 ERA over 33 2/3 regular-season innings for the Sox that season, plus a 1.04 ERA in 8 2/3 postseason frames.
The remainder of Brasier’s time in Boston was much shakier, as he ended up with a 4.55 ERA over his 209 2/3 career innings in a Red Sox uniform. As he now enters his age-36 season, however, Brasier again seems like an intriguing relief option given how well he pitched with the Dodgers. His age and somewhat inconsistent track record could limit him to a one-year contract, yet with so much interest in his market, Brasier might be able to land some type of option for the 2025 season depending on how sold teams are with his late-season performance.
Rangers Hire Dave Bush As Director Of Pitching Strategy
The Rangers announced the hiring of Dave Bush as director of pitching strategy. Texas also announced various promotions on both the business and baseball operations sides of the organization.
Bush is a new hire for Texas GM Chris Young. The 44-year-old has spent the last four seasons as pitching coach of the Red Sox. Boston fired him shortly after the conclusion of the 2023 campaign. (They hired Andrew Bailey to fill the position six weeks later.) Prior to his stint on the MLB staff, Bush had operated as a pitching development analyst and coordinator with Boston.
While he won’t directly return to a big league coaching staff, the Rangers’ press release said Bush “will be involved in all aspects of the organization’s pitching operation with emphasis on the Major League club.” He’ll work with veteran pitching coach Mike Maddux, who is entering his second season on Bruce Bochy’s staff in Arlington.
Bush pitched in 17 games for the Rangers in 2011, part of a nine-year big league playing career. He spent the majority of his time as a player with the Brewers, including a few seasons where Maddux was the pitching coach in Milwaukee.
MLBTR Poll: Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?
After winning the 2023 World Series, the first in franchise history, the Rangers have a big decision to make. They can either rest on their laurels, having accomplished their ultimate goal well ahead of schedule, or they can double down, reconfirming their commitment to winning. There is no denying their aggressive approach over the last two years paid dividends, but will they take that as motivation to remain aggressive or as impetus to let their foot off the gas?
The Rangers have been relatively quiet this offseason, having made just two notable acquisitions: starting pitcher Tyler Mahle and reliever Kirby Yates. Mahle, 29, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t return to the mound until midsummer at the earliest. Yates, 37 in March, overcame elbow problems of his own to pitch a full season in 2023, but at this point in his career, he looks more like a middle reliever than the All-Star he once was.
Meanwhile, several key contributors and high-paid veterans came off the books at the end of the 2023 season, including Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith. In other words, this team has holes to fill and, at least in theory, should have money to spend.
However, after allocating significant resources to sign players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the past two years, not to mention adding Max Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, the Rangers’ estimated 2024 payroll already sits dangerously close to the first luxury tax threshold. According to Roster Resource, the team has just over $4MM left to spend before they’d have to pay the tax.
The Rangers paid the competitive balance tax for the first time this past season. The total bill came in around $1.8MM, a drop in the bucket compared to their payroll and a small price to pay for a World Series title. Nonetheless, managing partner Ray C. Davis “isn’t keen to start the season above the tax threshold” in 2024, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Grant has suggested as much at multiple points throughout the offseason, but he reemphasized the idea earlier this week. Specifically, he notes the higher surcharge for clubs that pay the tax multiple years in a row; teams pay a 20% tax on all overages their first year above the threshold, 30% in their second straight season, and 50% in subsequent seasons after that.
Grant also acknowledges that the Rangers, like several other teams, are dealing with uncertainty surrounding local TV revenue after Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. That said, he stops short of presuming the team will start spending again if DSG and the Rangers reach a new deal for broadcast rights in 2024.
Despite all these budgetary questions, general manager Chris Young went on the record in late November to say Texas would be “active in free agency,” even if he wasn’t going to spend to the same degree as he had the previous two winters (per Grant). However, it’s unclear if signing Mahle and Yates and calling it a day would count as an active offseason in Young’s book. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been linked to several top free agents over the past two months. Before signing Mahle and Yates, the team was connected with pitchers like Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jordan Hicks. More recently, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested the Rangers were still in on Clayton Kershaw, despite his recent shoulder surgery – even though Texas already has three starters (deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle) who are recovering from surgeries of their own.
Without shedding some financial commitments elsewhere on the roster, any new signing the Rangers make could push their luxury tax payroll over the first threshold for penalties. Thus, if Davis is serious about avoiding the tax in 2024, Texas could already be finished spending this offseason; needless to say, that would be an anticlimactic way to follow up a World Series-winning campaign. Then again, if Rosenthal is correct to think the Rangers are pursuing Kershaw, perhaps they aren’t ready to curb their aggression after all. In addition to a starting pitcher, this team could use another proven bullpen arm and a full-time designated hitter. Plenty of talented players are still available if Texas is willing to pay their price.
As things currently stand, the Rangers have a good chance to return to the playoffs and contend for the AL West crown in 2024. However, being the defending World Series champions doesn’t make them the division favorites, nor does it mean they can expect to walk back into the postseason next fall. If ownership wants to topple the Astros dynasty, they’d be wise to keep investing in their roster.
So, what do MLBTR readers have to say? Will the Rangers continue looking for upgrades, even if it means paying the luxury tax again next season? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?
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No, they will spend past the first luxury tax threshold 41% (1,989)
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Yes, the Rangers are done making major signings this winter 34% (1,657)
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No, but they will also shed payroll to avoid paying the luxury tax 24% (1,175)
Total votes: 4,821
Rangers Sign Derek Hill, Andrew Knapp, Elier Hernandez To Minors Contracts
The Rangers announced seven minor league signings today, with the players all receiving invitations to the club’s big league Spring Training camp. The signings of Diego Castillo and Jesus Tinoco were previously reported, and Texas’ group included three more players with MLB experience — outfielder Derek Hill, catcher Andrew Knapp, and outfielder Elier Hernandez.
Hill has seen some action in each of the last four Major League seasons, beginning with his big league debut as a member of the Tigers in 2020. Hill appeared in 95 games with Detroit from 2020-22 before signing a minors deal with the Nationals last winter that resulted in 13 more MLB appearances this past season. Washington designated Hill for assignment and outrighted him off the 40-man roster in July, and Hill chose to become a minor league free agency after the regular season was over.
Just a few days shy of his 28th birthday, Hill hasn’t hit much over his limited big league career, with a .229/.279/.314 slash line over 304 plate appearances. Selected 23rd overall by the Tigers in the 2014 draft, Hill’s bat took a while to get going even in the minors, though he has hit .288/.348/.472 with 22 homers and 28 steals (in 35 tries) over 756 career PA at the Triple-A level.
These numbers hint at some “quad-A” uncertainty for Hill, yet his speed, Triple-A production, and his ability to at least passably play all three outfield positions should keep giving him some opportunities on minor league contracts. With Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski both free agents, Hill and Hernandez will give the Rangers some outfield depth at the Triple-A level, especially since top prospect Wyatt Langford is expected to make his MLB debut in 2024 and Evan Carter has already broken out as an outfield regular heading into next season.
It’s a familiar role for Hernandez, who is returning for his fourth straight season in the Texas organization. Originally an international signing for the Royals way back in 2011, the 29-year-old Hernandez has become a fixture at Triple-A Round Rock, posting particularly good numbers for the Rangers’ top affiliate in each of the last two seasons. That production earned Hernandez his first big league look in 2022, when he had a .442 OPS over 35 PA in 14 games with Texas.
The 32-year-old Knapp has the most Major League experience of the trio, as the veteran backstop suited up for 325 appearances from 2017-22. Most (309) of that work came as a part-time catcher and backup with the Phillies, but Knapp has since bounced around the league since he first elected free agency following the 2021 season. Knapp saw MLB action with three teams (the Pirates, Mariners, and Giants) in 2022, and he has also been a member of the Reds, Tigers, and Astros organization without the benefit of any big league call-ups. Knapp spent all of 2023 at Triple-A, hitting a combined .233/.328/.377 over 358 for Detroit and Houston’s top affiliates.
With Mitch Garver now joining the Mariners and already leaning more towards a DH-only role anyway, the Rangers were in need of some additional depth behind the plate. Jonah Heim will start and Knapp could give Sam Huff some competition for the backup job in Spring Training. Since there aren’t any other catchers in the organization with any big league experience, Texas will likely look to add one or two more backstops on minor league deals to further add to their list of catching options heading into camp.
Rangers Sign Diego Castillo To Minor League Deal
The Rangers have signed right-hander Diego Castillo to a minor league contract, according to Castillo’s player page on MLB.com. The details of the the deal aren’t clear, but presumably include an invite to big league Spring Training.
Castillo, 30 next month, made his big league debut with the Rays back in 2018. Early in his career Castillo found success as a solid middle reliever for Tampa, with a 3.30 ERA and 3.53 FIP in 125 1/3 innings across 108 appearances (including 17 appearances as an opener). Castillo owned a solid 28.5% strikeout rate against a walk rate of 8.6% with an impressive 51.8% groundball rate. Among all relievers with at least 100 innings of work across the 2018-19 seasons, only Luke Jackson, Jace Fry and Ryan Pressly struck out more batters while posting a groundball rate north of 50%.
Impressive as the first two seasons of his career already were, Castillo found another gear headed into the shortened 2020 season when he posted a sterling 1.66 ERA across 21 2/3 innings of work with a whopping 60.4% groundball rate. Castillo’s success during the shortened seasons saw him establish himself as a quality set-up option at the back of the Rays bullpen, resulting in the club dealing him to the Mariners the following summer. From 2020-22, Castillo posted a 2.95 ERA (134 ERA+) despite an elevated 3.84 FIP thanks to a 27.8% strikeout rate and a 49.7% groundball rate.
Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Castillo entering the 2023 season as the righty struggled to a 6.23 ERA across 8 2/3 innings of work for Seattle early in the year, resulting in the club outrighting Castillo off the roster in early May. The right-hander’s struggles continued in the minors throughout the year, as Castillo posted an ERA of 5.13 across 47 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level across the remainder of the season. Castillo became a minor league free agent back in October, giving the Rangers the opportunity to pick him up on a non-roster deal.
Brutal as Castillo’s performance was in 2023, his addition could provide a significant boost to the Rangers if he’s able to re-establish himself as a quality set-up arm or even as a solid middle reliever. Entering the 2023 season, Castillo sported a career 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP. Meanwhile, the Rangers had one of the worst relief corps in the entire league last season, even before the departures of Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton in free agency.
While Jose Leclerc is a strong back-end option and the likes of Kirby Yates and Brock Burke could be valuable pieces, Texas will need contributions from others outside of that trio to improve upon their 2023 bullpen ERA of 4.77. A rebound for Castillo would go a long way to achieving that goal, but for now the right-hander figures to enter the spring with competing for a spot in the club’s bullpen with the likes of Grant Anderson and Jake Latz.
West Notes: Buehler, Kershaw, Rangers, Astros, Giants, Yamamoto
The Dodgers have long seemed likely to lean on the services of right-hander Walker Buehler next season as he returns from rehabbing Tommy John surgery, which will have kept him away from the major league mound for nearly two years by the time Opening Day 2024 rolls around. While the club has recently bolstered its rotation with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, the club’s starting corps still offers little certainty beyond that duo, Buehler, and sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller even as youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone show promise.
According to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, the club may be more careful with Buehler’s return to action than initially expected. While the right-hander is expected to be at full strength for Spring Training, Plunkett indicates that the club intends to limit Buehler’s innings in 2024, though he relays comments from GM Brandon Gomes that indicate the club is likely to be “flexible” regarding the specific innings total Buehler is allowed to reach and his schedule for the 2024 campaign as a whole. Plunkett goes on to suggest that one possibility would be delaying the start of Buehler’s 2024 season in order to ensure he’ll be available to the Dodgers come October.
If the Dodgers do intend to have Buehler sit out the start of the season, it would further incentivize the club to add additional depth to its rotation even after landing both Yamamoto and Glasnow. Even if the club ends up reuniting with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw, the veteran lefty isn’t expected to return to the mound until sometime next summer after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. Adding an additional starting pitching option who figures to be ready to go on Opening Day along with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Miller would allow the club to have the likes of Sheehan, Stone, and Ryan Yarbrough battle for the fifth starting job entering the season rather than using them to cover multiple rotation spots.
More from around MLB’s West divisions…
- While he has re-upped with the Dodgers on one-year pacts each of the past two offseasons, it doesn’t appear that Kershaw’s return to L.A. is necessarily guaranteed, as Kershaw’s hometown Rangers have been frequently connected to the veteran lefty this offseason on the heels of their first World Series championship in franchise history. While the club already has Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle all targeting midseason returns from surgeries of their own, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Scherzer’s recent surgery hasn’t deterred the Rangers from their pursuit of the 3-time Cy Young Award winner. While Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, he’s been as valuable as ever when he manages to take the mound with a 2.67 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 78 starts since the start of the 2020 season.
- Astros center field prospect Jacob Melton was a hot commodity on the trade market at the trade deadline this year, as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome relays comments from Houston GM Dana Brown who told a podcast run by the Astros that Melton was “the one guy [he] was afraid to give away” but that he was asked after in “almost every” trade conversation last summer. Rome goes on to note some officials in the organization internally valued him more highly than top prospect Drew Gilbert, who was part of the package the club dealt to New York to re-acquire Justin Verlander. Melton, 23, was the club’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft and slashed .245/.334/.467 across 99 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.
- While the Giants ultimately fell short in their pursuit of Yamamoto, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the club was “in the mix right until the very end” and that Yamamoto was impressed enough with San Francisco’s pitch that the club would have been the “West Coast finalist” for his services had the Dodgers not entered the fray after signing Shohei Ohtani. A source indicated to Slusser that Ohtani’s presence on the Dodgers played a role in Yamamoto’s decision to ultimately sign with the club for a record-breaking $325MM guaranteed over twelve years.
Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills
Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports. Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).
Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….
- Mets: $100,781,932
- Padres: $39.7MM
- Yankees: $32.4MM
- Dodgers: $19.4MM
- Phillies: $6.98MM
- Blue Jays: $5.5MM
- Braves: $3.2MM
- Rangers: $1.8MM
As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster. A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year. Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani‘s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.
A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season. A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM. These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons. This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).
The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending. Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts. The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.
This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention. Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.
As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold. Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere. For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.
Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee. The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records. The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.
The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league. The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.
The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger
For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.
MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.
Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)
Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?
Likeliest Fits
- Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
- Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
- Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.
Longer Shots
- Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
- Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
- Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
Payroll Questions
- Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
- Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
- Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.
Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool
Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.
A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:
- Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
- MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
- All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”
As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.
Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.
The following 10 players got more than $1MM:
- Rodríguez: $1,865,349
- Corbin Carroll: $1,812,337
- Adley Rutschman: $1,798,439
- Spencer Strider: $1,692,833
- Justin Steele: $1,673,331
- Kyle Bradish: $1,666,786
- Félix Bautista: $1,467,094
- Gunnar Henderson: $1,428,001
- Jonah Heim: $1,060,306
- Tanner Bibee: $1,016,931
Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.