Martin Perez Leaning Toward Accepting Qualifying Offer
Players have until tomorrow afternoon to make decisions on their one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offers, and as things currently stand, Martin Perez is “likely” to accept his offer, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Morosi hedges by suggesting that a late change in Perez’s market could prompt him to change his thinking, but it’s still of some note to see where things stand for Perez at present, after several days of fielding interest from other teams.
Perez, 32 in April, returned to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM contract this season and quickly became one of baseball’s best bargains. The former top prospect finally delivered the type of season the Rangers envisioned during his minor league days, finishing tenth in the Majors with 196 1/3 innings and posting a 2.89 ERA that ranked 14th in the Majors. Perez’s success was due in no small part to a career-high 77% strand rate and to a level of home-run prevention (0.50 HR/9) he hasn’t shown since an injury-shortened 2015 season. However, the Rangers saw enough to make that weighty one-year offer, ostensibly comfortable with the idea that even in the event of some regression, Perez can be a serviceable innings eater in an otherwise perilously thin rotation mix.
Accepting the one-year offer wouldn’t necessarily preclude an eventual multi-year deal with the Rangers. While Perez would be locked in at $19.65MM for the 2023 season (and ineligible to be traded, without his consent, prior to June 15), that agreement could be torn up in favor of a new multi-year extension. The two parties would be free to continue negotiating on a possible multi-year pact, and Texas has reportedly already put forth a two-year offer to Perez — presumably at a notably lighter annual value than the $19.65MM rate of the QO.
From a payroll vantage point, even if that $19.65MM salary is something of an “overpay” for Perez, the Rangers likely don’t mind. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects them for a payroll just shy of $122MM at the moment, so Perez would take them to about $141.5MM. Texas has run its payroll as high as $174MM, back in 2017, and that was before they had a brand new ballpark from which to draw revenue. GM Chris Young has said that payroll is expected to rise over its 2022 levels, when the Rangers’ $142MM Opening Day payroll is right in the vicinity where they’d be in the event of Perez accepting the QO.
If he does indeed accept, Perez would join Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and newly acquired Jake Odorizzi as options in the rotation. Texas is widely expected to pursue high-end starting pitching in free agency, having already been linked to the likes of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon and NPB star Kodai Senga, who is available (sans posting fee) as a true international free agent this winter.
Rangers Interested In Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers
At the GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Rangers general manager Chris Young recently spoke with the media, including Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, and said the club is going to explore all areas of the starting pitching market. Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentions some discussions between the Rangers and Jacob deGrom, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network also mentions deGrom, in addition to Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga.
It’s hardly a surprise that the rotation will be a focus going forward, given that it was an obvious weakness in 2022. Texas starters posted a collective 4.63 ERA this year, placing them 25th in the majors in that regard. They got some decent work from Jon Gray and a career year from veteran Martin Perez, though Perez has now reached free agency and deprived the already-weak rotation of its strongest performer. There’s reportedly mutual interest in a reunion, with he and the club reportedly discussing multi-year pacts. But nothing has been finalized and he has now officially received a $19.65MM qualifying offer.
The club has already made one move to fortify the starting corps, acquiring Jake Odorizzi from Atlanta yesterday. Odorizzi hasn’t been great over the past three years, but he seems plenty capable of taking the ball and providing some decent innings. He had a 4.21 ERA in 2021 and a 4.40 mark in 2022 but got over 100 innings in each of those seasons and 143 in each year from 2014 to 2019.
If the Rangers and Perez can come to an agreement, he would form a solid three-headed veteran core with Gray and Odorizzi. The rotation would have a solid base but would be lacking a true ace. Perez posted a 2.89 ERA in 2022 but was at 4.38 or above in each of the previous eight seasons. Even if he has unlocked a pitch mix that leads to better results, maintaining a 6.5% HR/FB rate will be tough to do and some regression could still be in the cards. Gray dealt with some injuries this year but still made 24 starts and posted a 3.96 ERA with rate stats fairly close to his career marks. Dane Dunning could also be a factor at the back end of the rotation after he put up a 4.46 ERA over 29 starts this year. His health is a bit uncertain after his season was ended by arthroscopic hip surgery, but he can be an option if he’s healthy.
It seems the Rangers are willing to consider another bold strike to complement that group of serviceable pitchers. Last year, they showed they’re not afraid of such moves, giving Corey Seager $325MM over ten years and Marcus Semien $175MM over seven years. This year, it’s possible the big strike comes for an ace to lead the starting staff. That could come in the form a deal for Rodon, whom the club has already been connected to, with deGrom and Senga also being considered.
deGrom, 35 in June, certainly fits the bill of an ace, as he’s arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy. That health hasn’t always been present, especially lately, with deGrom missing over a year from July of 2021 to August of 2022. However, after his return, he showed that he can still be his dominant self, making 11 starts and throwing 64 1/3 innings. His 3.08 ERA was two full runs above what he did prior to his injury shutdown in 2021, but the peripherals were still very similar. His 42.7% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate were both still absurdly good and point to more elite results going forward. Given his health concerns and age, it’s possible he will be looking at short-term offers with his annual salaries. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list dropped yesterday with a prediction of $135MM over three years, which is $45MM per year.
That would certainly be one way for the club to go. Another would be a more traditional contract of greater length but less money per year. MLBTR projected a higher guarantee for Rodon at $140MM, though over a five-year term that would be significantly less on an annual basis, $28MM per year. Senga will likely require even less, predicted for $75 over five years, or $15MM per season. Of course, that would also come with its own kind of risk, given that Senga’s unproven against MLB hitters and not all NPB aces have found similar success after crossing the Pacific.
When talking about such figures, it’s worth taking a look at the club’s payroll situation. Roster Resource currently pegs the Rangers’ 2023 outlay at $122MM. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $142MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they’re only about $20MM away. If Perez eventually accepts the QO, they’re suddenly even. However, Young has already spoken about how payroll is going to go up and they have been as high as $165MM in previous seasons. Ultimately, exactly how much they have to spend will play a factor in how they address the rotation. If they have, say, $45MM to work with, putting all those eggs into the deGrom basket would be a huge upgrade but wouldn’t leave anything left to address the outfield or bullpen. Regardless of the final number, it will be interesting to see how it plays out as the club looks to gain some serious ground in a competitive AL West.
Rays Hire Jon Daniels As Senior Advisor For Baseball Operations
The Rays announced to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, that they have hired Jon Daniels as senior advisor for baseball operations. Daniels had spent many years with the Rangers until he was recently fired as president of baseball operations.
Daniels, 45, spent 17 years running the baseball operations in Texas, getting hired as general manager in 2005 and promoted to the POBO role in 2013. The Rangers had their best run of success with Daniels at the helm, as they made the playoffs in five out of seven seasons from 2010 to 2016, including trips to the World Series in the first two of those years. Since that time, however, the club has entered a rebuilding period that has continued to linger. They fell to 78-84 in 2017 and just endured their sixth straight losing season in 2022, with Daniels getting fired in August.
Despite the poor results in recent seasons, the Rays will bring Daniels into their front office mix. Said front office is headed by Erik Neander, president of baseball operations, followed by Peter Bendix, senior vice president baseball operations and general manager. The exact level of involvement they expect from Daniels is unclear, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that Daniels will focus on “supporting baseball ops senior leadership while utilizing his extensive experience in the industry to help further inform decision-making.”
In addition to the hiring of Daniels, the Rays also announced several promotions and/or title changes, with Topkin giving a rundown on Twitter (link one, two and three).
Rangers Outright Jesus Tinoco
The Rangers announced they’ve outrighted pitcher Jesus Tinoco to Triple-A Round Rock. Following that and a bundle of other moves involving the Rangers, their 40-man roster now sits at 34.
Tinoco, 27, tossed 20 2/3 innings of 2.18 ERA ball in 2022 across two stints in the big leagues with the Rangers. On the surface, those are excellent numbers but Tinoco had an opponent’s BABIP of just .189, and a LOB rate of 89.1%, suggesting there was a fair bit of regression due for the Venezuelan. He also threw 44 innings out of the bullpen at Triple-A, striking out batters 28.5% of the time and walking 9.5% of them on the way to a 3.27 ERA.
Tinoco was originally signed by the Blue Jays back in 2011. He was traded to the Rockies as part of the Troy Tulowitzki deal in 2015, and wound up making his major league debut in 2019 there. That was the start of a period of bouncing around the league a bit, as the Rockies would deal him to the Marlins in August of 2020, only to claim him back just a few weeks later. He was released by the Rockies at the end of the 2021 season, and latched on with the Rangers. All told, Tinoco has pitched to a 4.05 ERA across 66 2/3 innings in the big leagues.
Giants Claim Meibrys Viloria, Drew Strotman
The Giants announced Thursday that they’ve claimed catcher Meibrys Viloria and right-hander Drew Strotman off waivers from the Rangers. The team also reinstated Sam Delaplane, Anthony DeSclafani, Mauricio Llovera, Sam Long, Gregory Santos, Donovan Walton, Colton Welker and Alex Wood from the 60-day injured list. San Francisco’s 40-man roster is now at capacity.
Viloria, 25, appeared in 26 games with the Rangers in 2022 and, in 75 plate appearances, logged a .159/.280/.270 batting line. That’s similar to the output he managed across three seasons and mostly brief stints with the Royals from 2018-20. All in all, Viloria is a career .201/.270/.283 hitter in 276 Major League plate appearances.
That said, the lefty-swinging backstop has a far more appealing .257/.395/.412 slash in 108 Triple-A games. He’s also touted as a plus defensive backstop, boasting a 34% caught-stealing rate between the big leagues and the minors, and drawing plus reviews for his framing. He’ll give the Giants, who entered the offseason lacking in catching depth behind Joey Bart, another option on the 40-man roster, joining backup Austin Wynns and fellow recent waiver claim Dom Nunez.
Strotman’s stint in the Rangers organization will prove brief. Texas claimed him off waivers from the Twins on Sept. 19 and tried to pass him through waivers themselves not two months later. The now-26-year-old Strotman went from Tampa Bay to Minnesota (alongside Joe Ryan) in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Nelson Cruz to the Rays.
Strotman had Tommy John surgery in 2018, and while his velocity has generally recovered, that surgery and the ongoing command issues created some some concerns that he may have to move from a starting role to the bullpen. The Twins tried that approach in 2022, surely hoping that Strotman’s fastball and cutter would play up in shorter stints. It didn’t out, however, as the 2017 fourth-rounder pitched to a grisly 6.44 ERA with a career-worst 13.8% walk rate in 50 1/3 innings of bullpen work with Triple-A St. Paul this season. Strotman’s 24.2% strikeout rate and 51.1% grounder rate were both solid but not strong enough to offset the persistent location issues.
Things didn’t get much better with the Rangers. Strotman tossed 2 1/3 innings with their Triple-A club over the final week-plus of the season, allowing just one run and recording five punchouts. Sharp as those numbers were in that small time, he also walked three of the 14 hitters he faced, bringing his total to 36 walks (plus six hit batters) through just 254 batters faced in 2022 (14.2% walk rate).
Strotman has a minor league option left and was at one point a prospect of some note, so the Giants will see if they can get him on track. They’ve had plenty of success in coaxing new levels of performance out of pitchers in recent seasons, but Strotman is little more than a project at this point and shouldn’t be seen as a lock to survive the winter on the 40-man roster (nor should Viloria, for that matter).
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
- Joc Pederson (Giants)
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.
If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.
Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.
[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]
The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.
Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.
The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.
The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.
That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.
Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.
Tigers Claim Andy Ibanez, Outright Six Players
The Tigers have claimed infielder Andy Ibáñez off waivers from the Rangers, according to announcements from both teams. Detroit also outrighted six players — infielders Jermaine Palacios and Luis Garcia, right-handers Elvin Rodríguez, Bryan Garcia and Luis Castillo and outfielder Víctor Reyes — off their 40-man roster. After reinstating all their players from the injured list, Detroit has a full 40-man roster.
Ibáñez was Texas’ Opening Day starter at third base in 2022. He’d earned a look from the Rangers after hitting .277/.321/.435 through his first 76 big league games in 2021. The Cuban-born infielder looked like a viable late-blooming utilityman, but his offense dropped this year. Ibáñez hit .218/.273/.277 over 128 MLB plate appearances, connecting on just one home run. He had a better but still unimposing .255/.330/.390 mark over 315 plate appearances at Triple-A Round Rock.
Tough season aside, Ibáñez does have quality bat-to-ball skills and a typically solid track record of upper minors performance. He’s a career .288/.358/.456 hitter through parts of four Triple-A seasons. He’ll be 30 at the start of next season but has yet to reach arbitration and still has a minor league option year remaining. Ibáñez can play first, second or third base and adds a contact-focused depth infielder to the Tigers organization.
Of the players coming off the roster, Reyes is the most notable. He’s played parts of five seasons with the Tigers, tallying a personal-high 336 plate appearances in 2022. The switch-hitting outfielder put up a .254/.289/.362 mark with just three homers. He’s capable of defending all three outfield spots but has consistently provided below-average offense. Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.2MM salary for his penultimate season of arbitration eligibility, he proved a fairly straightforward non-tender for first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris.
Rodríguez debuted this year and started five of seven games. He surrendered a 10.62 ERA through 29 2/3 innings, posting a 4.98 mark over 99 1/3 innings with Triple-A Toledo. Bryan Garcia had spent his entire career as a reliever until 2022, when he took a few starts late in the year for an injury-battered rotation. He had a 3.80 ERA over 85 1/3 innings with the Mud Hens. Castillo, a 27-year-old reliever, made his first three big league appearances this year after posting a 1.74 ERA in 40 games for Toledo.
Palacios and Luis Garcia, meanwhile, never suited up for the Tigers. Palacios played in 30 games for the Twins, and Detroit nabbed the infielder off waivers from their division rivals after the end of the season. Garcia was once an interesting prospect in the Phillies farm system, but his bat stalled out in High-A this year. He has very little Double-A experience. Detroit claimed him late in the season but it always looked likely they’d try to run through waivers at some point.
Luis Garcia will remain in the organization without occupying a 40-man roster spot. Palacios, Bryan Garcia, Rodríguez, Castillo and Reyes all have the requisite service time to refuse an outright assignment and test minor league free agency.
Brewers Claim Tyson Miller From Rangers
The Brewers have claimed right-hander Tyson Miller off waivers from the Rangers, according to announcements from both clubs.
Miller, 27, was a fourth round pick of the Cubs and made a very brief MLB debut with them in 2020. The proverbial cup of coffee resulted in five innings pitched over two appearances. He went to the Rangers on a waiver claim in 2021 but didn’t make it back to the show that year.
Here in 2022, he spent most of his time in Triple-A, getting into 29 games there with 16 of those being starts. He logged 89 2/3 innings in that time with a 4.52 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 45.5% ground ball rate. The long ball was an issue for him, as he watched it go over the fence 14 times in that sample. He also logged 10 2/3 innings in the majors though was hit hard to a 10.97 ERA in that time.
Miller still has an option remaining, allowing the Brewers to keep him in the minors as depth. If they can find a way to suppress those homers, the rest of his results look pretty good.
Reds Acquire Nick Solak From Rangers
The Reds have acquired outfielder Nick Solak from the Rangers in exchange for cash considerations, according to an announcement from Texas.
Solak, 28, in January, was a second round pick of the Yankees in 2016 but was traded to the Rays as part of the 2018 three-team deal that saw the Yanks get Brandon Drury and the Diamondbacks get Steven Souza Jr. In July of 2019, the Rays flipped him to Texas for Pete Fairbanks.
After that second trade, Solak made his MLB debut with the Rangers, getting into 33 games down the stretch in 2019. It could hardly have gone much better, as Solak hit .293/.393/.491 in that stretch for a wRC+ of 126. He played second and third base in that time, giving the Rangers an exciting option for the infield.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to maintain those results since then. Over 2020 and 2021, he hit .250/.318/.357 for a wRC+ of just 88. He also struggled defensively and got pushed into a corner outfield role, putting more pressure on him to provide value offensively. He was optioned on and off the team throughout 2022, only getting into 35 big league games and not hitting too much when in the lineup. He finished the season on the IL due to a foot fracture and needed to be reinstated since the IL goes away today and doesn’t come back until Spring Training. Instead of adding him back to the roster, the club has swung a deal and sent him to Cincinnati.
For the Reds, there’s little harm in taking a shot on a bounceback. They’ve been stripping the roster down for the past couple of years and aren’t likely to be competitive here in 2023. Although Solak has struggled at the big league level in the past few years, he’s still performed well in Triple-A. In 2022, that led to a batting line of .278/.371/.489 and a wRC+ of 114.
The Reds have some other outfield options, such as Nick Senzel, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley and Aristides Aquino, though none of them are really set in stone. Solak still has one option year remaining, which means the Reds don’t even need to commit an active roster spot for him. If he can get his bat back on track, he still has years of arbitration control remaining.
The Opener: Free Agency, MLBTR’s Top 50, Rangers
As the baseball world prepares for the offseason to kick into a higher gear this evening, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the day:
1. The Next Stage Of The Offseason Begins
At 4 PM CDT today, free agency will begin in earnest. Most importantly, that time is when free agents will be free to negotiate and sign new contracts with other clubs. It also serves as the deadline for teams to extend their outgoing players a Qualifying Offer, and for teams and players alike to make the few options decisions that remain undecided, such as those of Nick Martinez, who Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes may renegotiate his contract with San Diego, and Justin Turner. News should be expected to trickle in throughout the day leading up to 4 PM CDT, as players and teams make their final decisions and plans before the next stage of the offseason begins.
2. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents
Once that QO/option deadline passes, we at MLB Trade Rumors will put the finishes touches on our annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Brandon Belt would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have seperate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the unpredictable offseason.
3. Rangers Look To Fortify Rotation
The Rangers are looking to improve after a big offseason last year resulted in a record of 68-94 and a fourth place finish in the AL West in 2022, and they have no bigger need than the rotation, where they face plenty of questions as to who will slot in both in front of and behind Jon Gray. Texas shored up the back of their rotation yesterday evening in a trade with the Braves for Jake Odorizzi, but GM Chris Young will need to add more to his rotation in order to compete in 2023. The Rangers have been previously connected to lefty ace Carlos Rodon, and reports last night indicated that the club not only plans on extending Martin Perez a Qualifying Offer by today’s deadline, but is in negotiations with his camp on a multiyear deal as well. Should the Rangers be successful in their pursuits, a rotation of Rodon, Perez, Gray, Odorizzi, and a youngster such as Dane Dunning or Spencer Howard would be a significant improvement over 2022, though they’d still need to address their outfield situation to truly position themselves as contenders for 2023.