Author Archives: Zach Links

After looking at some of the least productive offenses in baseball from last season, we now turn our attention to the teams that allowed the most runs in 2014.

Last year, teams allowed an average of 659 runs scored on the year. Meanwhile, the bottom five clubs allowed at least 740 runs last season and they all had ERAs of 4.26 or higher. We’ll take a look at those bottom five teams and see what they’ve done to improve their pitching and defense so far this offseason. Team name links go to a summary of the moves on MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker and 2014 runs allowed totals are in parentheses.

• Rockies (818 runs allowed, 4.84 team ERA) – The Rockies haven’t done a whole lot to improve their pitching situation so far this winter, though they’ve been connected to a handful of starters. Kyle Kendrick, 30, turned in a career-high 199 innings in 2014 and his career 46.1% groundball rate is of interest to Colorado. Kevin Correia is also on Colorado’s radar as a fifth starter and signing him likely wouldn’t break the bank. Aaron Harang has also been connected to the Rockies, but he doesn’t fit the bill as a ground ball pitcher. Brett Anderson, who had a 61% groundball rate, left them and joined the Dodgers in free agency. The Rockies have talked with the Mets about Dillon Gee, but we haven’t heard much on that front lately.
• Twins (777 runs allowed, 4.57 team ERA) – The Twins, on the other hand, made a significant addition to their rotation last month when they signed Ervin Santana to a four-year, $55MM deal. Later on, Minnesota added reliever Tim Stauffer on a one-year, $2.2MM contract to help fortify the bridge to Glen Perkins, though he could also be called upon to make a spot start. Brayan Villarreal, who was signed to a split contract, and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham could also be featured in the bullpen.
• Rangers (773 runs allowed, 4.49 team ERA) – The Rangers have been modest in their moves to updgrade their pitching: re-signing Colby Lewis, acquiring left-hander Ross Detwiler in a trade with the Nationals, and signing free agent reliever Kyuji Fujikawa. Detwiler will be given an opportunity to make the rotation, but could wind up in the bullpen while Fujikawa has only thrown 25 innings over the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. The Rangers have been linked to ex-Brave Brandon Beachy, who missed all of 2014 after undergoing his second TJ surgery and isn’t expected back on the mound until mid-season, at the earliest. The Rangers did meet with James Shields during the Winter Meetings and did make an offer to Justin Masterson before he signed with the Red Sox, but otherwise seem content to settle for minor league depth signings and waiver claims.
• White Sox (758 runs allowed, 4.29 team ERA) – GM Rick Hahn has been extremely aggressive in rebuilding the White Sox’s staff adding Jeff Samardzija to the top of the rotation with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana and fixing the bullpen with the free agent signings of closer David Robertson and lefty Zach Duke. The White Sox also traded for left-hander reliever Dan Jennings. Speaking of lefties, Carlos Rodon, the third overall selection in last year’s amateur draft, is waiting in the wings and could make his MLB debut once the service time window passes on obtaining the extra year of team control.
• Diamondbacks (742 runs allowed, 4.26 team ERA) – New GM Dave Stewart has chosen the trade route to bolster Arizona’s pitching acquiring Jeremy Hellickson from the Rays, Robbie Ray from the Tigers in the Didi Gregorius three-way trade, and right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster from the Red Sox in the Wade Miley deal. Stewart acknowledged last month internal discussions were held regarding free agent top-of-the-rotation starters Max Scherzer and James Shields, but a decision has yet to be made whether to join the bidding as the Diamondbacks may wait until next offseason to flex their financial resources. Reinforcements could come mid-season with the return of Bronson Arroyo and Patrick Corbin, both of whom are recovering from Tommy John surgery. Top prospect Archie Bradley, who will likely start the season at Triple-A, could also be a factor in 2015.

A high-octane offense doesn’t guarantee overall success, but it certainly helps.  In 2014, the Angels (98 wins, 773 runs), Tigers (90 wins, 757 runs), and A’s (88 wins, 729 runs) all reached the postseason thanks in part to their top five offenses.  The bottom five teams, meanwhile, all missed the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at those bottom five teams and see what they’ve done to improve their offensive production so far this offseason. Team name links go to a summary of the teams’ moves on MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker and 2014 run totals are in parentheses. For reference, the average MLB team scored 659 runs last year.

• Padres (535) – Nobody has been more aggressive this offseason than the Padres, who finished dead last in runs scored in 2014.  The Padres have placed no better than 24th in runs scored since 2011 and you have to go back all the way to 2007 to find a season in which they didn’t place in the bottom third of the league.  That’s likely to change now, however, thanks to A.J. Preller’s complete overhaul of the outfield.  Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers all come to San Diego with a history of producing at the plate and they have every intention of beating the odds at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  And, despite his recent struggles, the Padres are hoping that they can get third baseman Will Middlebrooks to perform closer to his 2012 effort.
• Braves (573) – The Braves surprised many when they shipped right fielder Jason Heyward to the Cardinals for right-hander Shelby Miller.  Then, the Braves replaced the defensive-minded Heyward with another defense-first outfielder in Nick Markakis.  In recent seasons, Markakis has profiled as a high-OBP, low-power bat and odds are that he probably won’t magically rediscover his pop from years ago.  Soon after, the Justin Upton trade took away a bat that produced a .270/.342/.491 slash line with 29 homers in 2014.  Atlanta made it clear this offseason that they’ll bank on improvement from within to fix their offensive woes, though it remains to be seen if that will be a sound strategy.  A 180° from B.J. Upton would certainly help the cause, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that he’ll be on a short leash.  Atlanta, he says, will consider moving to a platoon of Zoilo Almonte and Todd Cunningham if Upton continues to flounder.
• Reds (595) – The Reds didn’t do much to bolster their offense until a New Year’s Eve deal with the Phillies brought in Marlon Byrd.  The 37-year-old has refused to let Father Time slow him down.  After surprising everyone in 2013 with a 291/.336/.511 slash line between the Mets and Pirates in 2013, Byrd turned in a solid .264/.312/.445 with 25 homers for Philadelphia in 2014.  Byrd satisfied their need for an outfielder to go alongside Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton and he won’t break the bank thanks to the $4MM that the Phillies sent over in the deal.
• Rays (612) – Parting with a young, power-hitting right fielder (Myers) may seem an odd way to bolster a lineup, but Tampa is obviously high on the player it acquired to replace him. It remains to be seen whether Steven Souza can translate his tools to the MLB game, but his eye-opening .350/.432/.590 output at Triple-A last year provides evidence in the affirmative. The club also added a bat-first middle infielder in Asdrubal Cabrera, although it remains to be seen whether his signing constitutes a prelude to a trade involving the even more productive Ben Zobrist.
• Cubs (614) – Chicago’s big signing, Jon Lester, was designed to keep opposition runs off the board. The same could be said, to an extent, about the team’s addition of backstops Miguel Montero and David Ross. But each member of that new catching pairing has put up big offensive numbers in the not-so-distant past. Beyond that, the organization will hope for continued progress from its young, high-upside core of position players while excitement builds over the expected mid-season deployment of power-hitting third base prospect Kris Bryant, who will finish his seasoning at Triple-A to start the year.