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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Yonder Alonso

By Jeff Todd | May 15, 2017 at 9:00am CDT

Last fall, it came as something of a surprise when the Athletics elected to tender a contract to first baseman Yonder Alonso. Though it cost the club just $4MM, that seemed a fairly hefty sum for a player who had contributed so little in the preceding season.

May 6, 2017; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics first baseman Yonder Alonso (17) rounds third base after hitting a two run home run against the Detroit Tigers during the sixth inning at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

At the time, Alonso was coming off of a 2016 campaign in which he slashed just .253/.316/.367 over 532 plate appearances. While he continued to post low strikeout rates — 13.9% on the year — Alonso hit only seven home runs and also rated poorly with the glove.

Still, the A’s maintained faith. Oakland had parted with what turned out to be a significant asset — lefty Drew Pomeranz — to acquire Alonso, and clearly believed there was more to be found in his bat. What he has done thus far, though, has probably still come as a surprise.

Over his first 125 trips to the plate thus far in 2017, Alonso has been a revelation. He’s striking out more than ever, with a 21.6% K rate, but is also walking at a career-best 12.0% rate. And the former top prospect has finally tapped into his power potential, with a dozen long balls — matching his cumulative tally over the prior two seasons and 934 plate appearances. All said, he’s currently carrying a .291/.376/.664 batting line.

That remarkable turnaround has come despite a pedestrian .282 BABIP, so there’s obviously more at play than batted-ball fortune. Clearly, Alonso has employed some fundamental changes to his approach. At present, he’s hitting fly balls at a 54.2% clip while putting it on the ground just 24.1% of the time. That’s a stark reversal of his career rates of 33.6% flies and 44.4% grounders. As Eno Sarris of Fangraphs explored this spring in a remarkably prescient piece, it’s part of a dedicated plan.

We’ll obviously need to see how pitchers respond, and Alonso replies, before making any final assessments. But the early returns are obviously quite promising. And it’s fair to say that the opposition has taken notice. Remarkably, Alonso is seeing first-pitch strikes at only a 44.8% clip — a precipitous dive from his 58.7% career rate.

Alonso has accomplished the breakout not by swinging more, but by swinging more aggressively. In fact, he’s currently carrying a career-low 42.4% swing rate while chasing out of the zone at a career-low 23.5% rate. But he’s swinging through pitches 9.0% of the time, a fair bit above his typical levels (7.9%), which has led to the bump in strikeouts. Obviously, though, the contact has been much better when he does make it. Alonso’s exit velocity is over 91 mph, comfortably above league average, and his launch angle of 22.10 degrees is nearly double that of the field (12.89 degrees).

So, what’s it all mean? As noted already, Alonso will need to demonstrate that this is sustainable, even as the league adjusts. And there’ll surely be some regression, as his current 26.7% homer-per-flyball ratio likely will dip. (For his career, it’s just 8.1%.) There’s also the question of platoon splits. Alonso has historically struggled badly against left-handed pitching, with a lifetime .240/.307/.353 batting line. He has popped three dingers off of opposing southpaws thus far, but has only one other hit to go with two walks in his 23 plate appearances without the platoon advantage. And metrics have continued to see a decline in Alonso’s once-excellent defensive work at first. Still, his profile has clearly changed for the better, and that also means he’s now looking at bigger earnings when he hits the open market after the season.

It’s way too soon to put hard numbers down for contract expectations. And it’s worth bearing in mind that many accomplished sluggers failed to find the money they expected last winter, so the upside is perhaps limited. Despite swatting 47 home runs, Mark Trumbo took down just three years and $37.5MM, while even Edwin Encarnacion couldn’t find a fourth year. There’ll be competition next year, too, with more established sluggers like J.D. Martinez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Carlos Santana, and perhaps Justin Upton also slated to hit the open market. At first base, Alonso will need to contend with Eric Hosmer, as well. It’s perhaps also now conceivable that Alonso could do enough damage that he’s worthy of a qualifying offer — though that possibility could well be foreclosed by a mid-season trade.

Alonso only just turned 30 years of age, so his representatives at MVP Sports can rightly tout that he’s a relatively youthful free agent. And that list of free-agent competitors hasn’t exactly gotten off to a compelling start, as a whole. If Alonso can stay healthy and productive, he could find himself among the top bats available next winter. He has already turned the A’s $4MM investment into a bargain, and that could look like a pittance when he signs his next contract. As things stand, it seems reasonable to believe that Alonso could command a three or four-year guarantee when he puts pen to paper next winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Yonder Alonso

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Kendrys Morales

By Steve Adams | September 19, 2016 at 9:33pm CDT

The second season of Kendrys Morales’ two-year, $17MM deal with the Royals looked to be a flop as late into the season as mid-June. An 0-for-4 showing on June 10 dropped his OPS below the .600 mark (.592), and his overall batting line sat at .200/.265/.327 at that point. Fast-forward three-plus months, though, and Morales just belted his 29th homer of the season and has hit well enough that Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star saw fit to raise the question of whether the Royals should tender their designated hitter a qualifying offer this winter. I’ll delve into that in a bit, but first and foremost, the last three months of Morales’ season can’t simply be glossed over.

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Morales went 1-for-3 with a homer on June 11, which represented a rare bright spot in a bleak season for him to that point. However, that fairly innocuous performance kicked off an eight-game hitting streak during which the switch-hitter was on fire, and Morales never really looked back. In 85 games (81 starts) between the onset of that minor hitting streak (and before tonight’s action), Morales batted an exceptional .303/.370/.563 with 22 homers and 13 doubles. He’s walked at a 9.1 percent clip and struck out at a 19 percent clip.

That Herculean stretch of games has boosted Morales’ season batting line to a plenty respectable .262/.329/.473. Those numbers grade out at about 10% above league average, with the lower OBP offsetting the pop, but they’re a far cry from his terrific debut in Kansas City when he slashed .290/.362/.485 in 639 plate appearances with the Royals last year. A strict designated hitter — which Morales is, despite the fairly stunning decision to play him in the corner outfield a bit during interleague play — with an above-average but not quite outstanding bat, however, isn’t necessarily a commodity for which teams will pay a premium price.

Morales’ value this winter, then, will in many ways hinge on whether teams are willing to simply write off the first two months of the 2016 season as an anomaly, instead choosing to focus in on the tremendous production that Morales provided throughout the 2015 season and for the bulk of the 2016 campaign. And if the 2016 season were the only time in recent history Morales looked lost at the dish, perhaps they’d be willing to do just that. However, it’s hard to imagine that clubs won’t be wary of a bat-only player that has now gone through prolonged stretches of not just below-average production but disastrously poor offensive output.

Morales, as many recall, received a qualifying offer from the Mariners on the heels of a solid 2013 season. That Seattle even tendered a QO to Morales was a surprise, but the fact that Morales and agent Scott Boras elected to decline the offer was even more shocking. Morales languished in free agency all offseason, unable to find a team willing to part with a top draft pick in exchange for his services. Ultimately, he waited until after the June draft to sign a one-year deal with the Twins that afforded him the pro-rated portion of a $12MM salary (about $7.5MM through the end of that season). Morales did virtually nothing to bolster his stock that year, batting just .218/.274/.338 with eight homers in what was unequivocally the worst season of his Major League career.

While Morales’ camp can argue that the lack of a Spring Training to get up to speed derailed any chances of having a productive year, those three and a half months, paired with the two-plus months for which he provided virtually no value to the Royals in 2016, total about a full season’s worth of considerably below-replacement-level production for Morales in the past few calendar years. He’s balanced them out with some excellent production as well, but the lack of consistency for a player whose lone job is to consistently provide offensive value serves as a red flag — especially in an age where many teams utilize the DH spot as a revolving door to play matchups and to keep various hitters fresh.

What’s clear is that Morales’ mutual option is all but certain to be torn up. Such options are virtually never exercised by both parties — either the player performs well enough to leave no doubt that he can top the option’s value in free agency, or he performs poor enough that the team doesn’t want him back at said price — and Morales’ shouldn’t be an exception. He’s performed well enough to reasonably expect that he can surpass $11MM in free agency, but has he performed at a high enough level for the Royals to risk tendering a one-year offer in the vicinity of $16.8MM? I lean toward no.

Last winter alone, we saw teams show extreme reluctance to part with draft picks to sign Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Howie Kendrick and Yovani Gallardo. Meanwhile, bat-only players like Pedro Alvarez and Mike Napoli landed one-year deals worth $5.75MM and $7MM, respectively. Certainly, Morales has had a better season than Desmond, Alvarez and Napoli did in 2015, but reluctance to surrender a draft pick for players that can provide definitive defensive value and come with the offensive upside of Desmond, Kendrick and Fowler was surprising to see. Furthermore, Morales has been through this process once before and undoubtedly considers free agency when burdened by draft pick compensation to be a negative experience. Extending a QO to a player with his past experiences when it roughly amounts to the same financial guarantee he just received on a two-year deal seems like a recipe for a quick acceptance.

It seems reasonable to believe that the Royals will forgo a qualifying offer for Morales, who is all too familiar with what the QO does to a DH with an above-average but not elite bat. Assuming, then, that he’s unencumbered by draft-pick compensation, another two-year contract for Morales is a reasonable expectation — and probably one at a higher annual rate than his current agreement. Morales’ new representatives at Wasserman (he switched agencies last October) could very well see fit to push for a third year. Billy Butler, after all, got three years coming off a worse season than the one Morales is wrapping up.

Morales, though, is much older than Butler was when he signed his deal. He also hasn’t demonstrated the consistency nor the elite levels of offense that Victor Martinez did leading up to his four-year deal. Beyond that, Morales will face a slew of competition in terms of first base/DH/corner outfield types. In addition to Edwin Encarnacion (the top name in this group), the free agent market includes Alvarez, Napoli, Brandon Moss, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison, Carlos Beltran and potentially even Jay Bruce (depending on the status of his own 2017 option).

Ultimately, the third year for Morales, who will turn 34 next June, doesn’t seem likely but shouldn’t be considered impossible. However, even a solid raise on a new two-year pact would be a remarkable feat for a designated hitter that had a sub-.600 OPS through his first 56 games of the season. Morales probably won’t break the bank, but he’s salvaged his 2016 season and his offseason earning power.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Kendrys Morales

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Brandon Moss

By Jeff Todd | September 8, 2016 at 7:25pm CDT

Entering the 2016 season, some questioned whether the Cardinals should tender slugger Brandon Moss a contract. Despite having given up a solid pitching prospect (Rob Kaminsky) to acquire him at the trade deadline, St. Louis received only average offensive production from Moss down the stretch in 2015. And he was set for a big salary in his final season of arb eligibility.

The Cards continued to show faith in Moss, though, ultimately tendering him and agreeing on a $8.25MM payday. And perhaps it was never a close call. After all, the team was willing to part with Kaminsky in that deal even though Moss had put up a meager .217/.288/.407 batting line with the Indians over the first half of 2015.

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As Moss puts the finishing touches on a strong 2016 season, St. Louis faces another question on him, but it’s at quite a different price point. Now, it’s an open question whether the team will make him a $16.7MM qualifying offer. If it does, Moss will at least need to consider accepting, given that he’ll be entering his age-33 season and would otherwise stand to enter the market with draft compensation attached.

Regardless, the fact that the QO could even potentially come into play is testament to Moss’s quality efforts. Over his 384 plate appearances in 2016, he owns a .247/.323/.532 batting line with 25 long balls. While he did miss a bit of action with an ankle injury, that isn’t likely to be a long-term issue, and he has kept hitting since his return.

So, what explains the lull? Is this season an outlier or was last? Ever since his 2012 breakout, Moss has walked in between 8.7% and 11.6% of his plate appearances while striking out between 25% and 30% of the time. His isolated power dipped in 2014 and fell further in 2015, moving in sync with his homer-per-flyball rate. But Moss posted a hard-hit ball rate in the 40% range last season. And now that the HR/FB has moved back to a lofty 21.7%, he is again doing damage.

There’s certainly some risk in this sort of profile. Interestingly, Moss’s best overall offensive campaigns have come when his swinging-strike rate was at its highest. For a player who already has a ton of whiffs in his game, and doesn’t add value through his legs or his glove, teams will rightly question what kind of investment to make.

Platoon splits, too, raise some questions. As you might have guessed, Moss has feasted on righties this year but has been merely average when facing same-handed pitching. That represents a return to the somewhat freer-swinging version of Moss from 2012-13, when he was most productive overall. In the intervening two seasons, Moss actually carried reverse platoon splits, showing less power but better on-base ability against southpaws. All said, it’s an interesting and varied profile, but clubs will likely expect to spell Moss at least occasionally when lefties take the mound.

One other notable aspect of Moss’s likely upcoming free agent case is his glovework. I noted already that he doesn’t really add value on defense, but he has actually received slightly positive lifetime UZR and DRS ratings in the corner outfield. Those metrics don’t love him at first base, but perhaps the glove will help keep his market more open than one might expect. While Moss isn’t any kind of stolen base threat, moreover, he has traditionally rated as a roughly league-average overall performer on the basepaths.

In the aggregate, even in his best years, Moss has been more of a 2 to 2.5 WAR player. Clearly, there are some limits to his game that may not make him a simple plug-and-play everyday regular. But with the right roster around him, Moss could be a highly valuable piece, bringing strong big-time left-handed pop and more competency in the field and on the bases than one might have expected.

Finding comps for a contract is a tricky business for a player like Moss. The qualifying offer question could loom large, as some teams may simply not be interested in punting a pick to sign him. And it’s not easy to assess whether most organizations will view Moss more as an oft-used platoon player or a plausible everyday presence in the lineup.

From where I sit, though, Moss isn’t particularly likely to get a QO. That ought to help maintain a reasonable spread of demand for the veteran, which could significantly impact how his market develops. A two-year arrangement could make some sense, and Moss might reasonably hope to land on the higher side of a set of price points that range from $12MM (Chris Young) all the way up to $32MM (Mike Napoli). Three years have been there for near-regular, non-QO outfielders like Gerardo Parra ($27.5MM) and Denard Span ($31MM), with Nick Markakis representing of a next tier with his deal (four years, $44MM). Pop typically pays more than other skills, but it seems a bit of a stretch to imagine Moss reaching the levels of Nelson Cruz (four years, $58MM), even though the Mariners slugger was slightly older and came with draft compensation.

Odds are that Moss will be looking more at two or three year offers than viable four-year scenarios. That may not represent a banner entry onto the free agent market for a player who has popped 24 bombs per year for the last five seasons, but Moss was a late-emergent talent and is already looking to sell seasons in his mid-thirties. Still, he has obviously pushed his earning power back northward with a quality campaign that makes his 2015 dud look like a bit of an outlier.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals Brandon Moss

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Melancon

By Mark Polishuk | September 1, 2016 at 1:53pm CDT

This winter’s free agent starting pitching class is so thin that two relievers (Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen) easily carry the most earning power of any arm on the open market.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see more teams choosing to spend their pitching dollars on their relief corps rather than their rotations this offseason given the lack of starting options, not to mention baseball’s growing trend of ultra-deep bullpens.

In short, the opportunity is there for Mark Melancon to score a very nice multi-year contract.  He won’t cost as much as Chapman or Jansen, though he is maybe only a step behind that elite pair of closers in terms of performance and several steps above the next-best free agent stopper, Santiago Casilla, as well as recent ninth-inning men such as Brad Ziegler and Jonathan Papelbon.  (Of the closers who could be free agents if their club options aren’t picked up, only Wade Davis stands out as superior to Melancon, though the Royals will almost surely exercise their $10MM option on Davis for 2017.)

Aug 30, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Mark Melancon (43) celebrates the win against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Nationals defeated the Phillies, 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Looking at how Melancon, Chapman and Jansen have performed since the start of the 2013 season, Melancon is the clear bronze medalist within this “big three” of free agent closers, though he brings a different skillset to the table.  He records far fewer strikeouts but also generates far more grounders, and Melancon has the lowest BB/9 (1.45), home run rate (5.5%) and ERA (1.74) of the trio.

Like Jansen, Melancon’s chief weapon is a cut fastball.  Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post recently detailed how Melancon’s emergence as a force within the Pirates bullpen in 2013 was due to a full embrace of the cutter, and his reliance on that pitch and his curveball have only become more pronounced.  The breakdown of Melancon’s pitch selection in 2015 reveals that he used his standard fastball only eight percent of the time and a changeup 0.3% of the time, while tossing 64.6% cutters and 27.1% curves.  Never a particularly hard thrower, Melancon averages 91.7 mph on his heater (not a big drop from his high of 93 mph as a rookie in 2009) and has averaged around 90.7 mph on his cutter in 2015-16, down from roughly 91.7 mph in 2013-14.

As Castillo’s piece notes, there are some concerns about how the cutter can tax a pitcher’s elbow.  Melancon underwent Tommy John surgery a decade ago, but has been very durable since. Ultimately, he carried only a slightly above-average risk factor for another UCL injury in last February’s statistical assessment of MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum.

Jansen has his own notable injury history and Chapman has a wholly separate set of issues due to his suspension under MLB’s domestic violence policy, so Melancon’s top free agent competition also has some baggage.  Still, beyond health and strikeout rate, age is the most obvious reason Jansen and Chapman are better-positioned than Melancon for a pricier long-term contract.  Both will be 29 next Opening Day while Melancon will be 32 years old.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes feels both Chapman and Jansen could land five-year deals worth more than $70MM, which would set a new standard for relief pitching contracts.  It isn’t totally out of the question that either could land an unprecedented (for a reliever) six guaranteed years, though their rising tide wouldn’t lift Melancon’s boat into the realm of a five-year deal.  No reliever has received five guaranteed years* since B.J. Ryan’s free agent deal with the Blue Jays way back in the 2005-06 offseason, and while Chapman and Jansen likely have a chance to crack that threshold, no team is making that big a commitment to a 32-year-old relief pitcher.

*Sean Doolittle’s extension with the A’s in April 2014 was technically a five-year pact, though it doesn’t really count given that the first year of that deal was already underway.  Doolittle was also still a pre-arbitration player when he signed, so it’s not really a good comparable for Melancon’s situation.

A four-year deal, however, seems like a logical target for Melancon and his representatives at Relativity Baseball.  Over the last two offseasons, David Robertson ($46MM), Andrew Miller ($36MM) and Darren O’Day ($31MM) all found four-year contracts on the open market.  O’Day was entering his age-33 season and is a setup man rather than a proven closer, so there’s a good argument to be made that O’Day’s four years/$31MM is the floor of what Melancon can hope to receive this winter.

Robertson had only one season of closing experience at the time of his deal with the White Sox, while Miller had only one career save and, really, only one season as a truly reliable bullpen option under his belt when he signed with the Yankees.  That said, those two pitchers signed their deals going into their age-30 seasons, and those two extra years of youth could very well carry more weight than Melancon’s three-plus years of an outstanding track record.  If Melancon does land a four-year pact, his dollar figure should land somewhere much closer to Miller’s $36MM than it will Robertson’s $48MM salary.

It figures to be a busy market for closers this winter, in no small part because some of the game’s biggest spenders (such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals and Giants) have their own stoppers hitting free agency and will be looking to re-sign or replace those ninth-inning standouts.  The Rangers, Marlins, Cardinals, Mariners, Angels, Twins, Braves, Rockies, Diamondbacks and Yankees could also be looking for a new closer; the teams on that list who already have pretty steady closers could shift them into roles as Melancon’s setup man, thus improving overall bullpen depth.  It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see a team with both an established closer and setup man get into the hunt for Melancon, in order to create a three-headed bullpen monster a la the 2015 Royals or the 2016 Yankees.

One market-limiting factor Melancon won’t have to worry about is the qualifying offer, as Melancon was traded from the Pirates to the Nationals at the deadline.  The deal allowed the Bucs to obtain two promising young arms (Felipe Rivero and Taylor Hearn) for a reliever they wouldn’t have been able to afford re-signing, whereas Washington was making a win-now move to upgrade their bullpen.  Melancon has been superb since joining the Nats, and continued excellence down the stretch and potentially through the postseason would certainly do a lot to raise his already-high profile heading into free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals Mark Melancon

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ivan Nova

By charliewilmoth | August 29, 2016 at 5:50pm CDT

We typically think of trade deadline winners and losers being teams, not players, but if September goes as August has, there will have been few bigger trade deadline winners than Ivan Nova. The righty spent years on the fringes of the Yankees’ rotation, but now could hit the open market as a hot commodity after what could turn out to have been a very useful makeover in the Pirates organization.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco GiantsIn 97 1/3 innings with the Yankees this season, little went right for Nova. He posted a 4.90 ERA, with a reasonable 6.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 but with a stratospheric 1.8 HR/9, and he made only 15 starts while also pitching six times out of the bullpen. He then headed to Pittsburgh in a little-noticed August 1 deal for two players to be named.

Nova figured to perform better with the Pirates, since he was moving to the more pitcher-friendly league and since it’s considerably easier to limit home runs at PNC Park than it is in Yankee Stadium. A.J. Burnett finished his career as a minor hero in Pittsburgh after an uneven tenure in New York, and Nova seemed likely to benefit from the same team change.

The Pirates organization’s reputation for fixing pitchers also figured to help Nova. That reputation has taken a bit of a hit this year with the struggles of Jon Niese, Francisco Liriano and others, but the past successes of J.A. Happ, Edinson Volquez, Mark Melancon, Liriano and Burnett all made Nova’s move look promising.

Since the deal, Nova has greatly exceeded expectations, posting a 2.87 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and only one walk in 31 1/3 innings. It appears the Pirates have helped Nova throw more strikes, and he’s done so with gusto, perhaps in part because he doesn’t have to worry as much about the ball flying out of the stadium if he makes a mistake. Nova’s performance since joining the Pirates looks likely to dramatically improve his standing in the coming offseason.

Of course, it’s still just 31 1/3 innings. There’s time for Nova to falter, and even if he doesn’t, teams perhaps will think twice before making a significant commitment this winter based on only two months of data. But Nova seems likely to benefit from the precedent Happ established last year.

Like Nova, Happ was a fringe starter who joined the Pirates on a forgettable deadline deal and immediately morphed into a completely different pitcher, posting a 1.89 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings for Pittsburgh. Better still, he signed with the Blue Jays for three years and $36MM last offseason and continued to perform well with his new team, posting a 3.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 155 1/3 innings so far with the Jays. A number of other pitchers who’ve righted their ships in Pittsburgh have enjoyed varying degrees of success elsewhere as well, including Volquez, Jason Grilli, Jeanmar Gomez and Vance Worley. This winter, then, teams will have reason to gamble that Nova will continue to contribute, particularly since he’s only 29.

The next month will be crucial for Nova, and there will be a wide range of possibilities for him in the offseason depending on how he pitches the rest of the year. It might turn out that his first five starts with the Pirates were partially a fluke. This wouldn’t be the first strong, but inconsequential, month he’s ever had — for example, from April 20 through May 19 of this season, he posted a 2.49 ERA while only walking two batters in 25 1/3 innings. But another good month would go a long way toward convincing potential suitors that Nova is for real. If he does continue to pitch well, Nova and his representatives at the Legacy Agency will surely point to Happ’s performance as evidence that small samples can matter. Rich Hill’s performance this year after a handful of outstanding starts with the Red Sox last season will be a good data point for them as well.

Teams will be eager to believe the story Nova will be telling, too, because so little good pitching will be available on the open market. In a free agent market that will be highlighted by pitchers with serious question marks related to age or performance (the key names include Hill, Andrew Cashner, Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Hellickson and Doug Fister), a pitcher who might be the next Happ would stand out in a big way. The fact that the Pirates can’t tag Nova with a qualifying offer will only help his value as well. Volquez got two years and $20MM from the Royals prior to the 2015 season, but if Nova continues to pitch well, he seems likely to get significantly more, given that he’s been better than Volquez was with the Bucs and given the weakness of the market. A three-year deal a long the lines of the one Happ received looks like a real possibility if he can repeat his August excellence. It looks relatively likely, then, that Nova’s performance since the trade will have more than doubled the payday he’ll ultimately receive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Ivan Nova

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Justin Turner

By Jeff Todd | August 20, 2016 at 8:30am CDT

At one point this year, the magic seemed to have worn off for Justin Turner. Coming off of significant offseason knee surgery, Turner failed to crack a .700 OPS in either of the first two months of the season.

That has all changed, though, as the well-bearded redhead flipped the switch in mid-June and hasn’t looked back. Despite the tepid start, Turner has run his batting line all the way up to .278/.345/.516, good for a composite 130 wRC+ that falls just shy of the big-time numbers he produced in each of the last two seasons.

Aug 18, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner (10) throws to first for an out against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Turner’s stunning emergence in Los Angeles has been well-documented. At this point, it seems hard to argue with the fact that the 31-year-old is simply one of the league’s better hitters. In some ways, in fact, he is improving. While maintaining his low-strikeout approach, Turner has steadily enhanced his power. While his 2014 breakout was fueled in part by a .404 BABIP, he hit only seven home runs. Through 464 plate appearances in the current campaign, Turner has already left the yard 23 times and owns a .237 isolated slugging mark that sits just ahead of players like Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Robinson Cano on the league leaderboard.

The increase in home runs corresponds both to a jump up in Turner’s flyball rate (now 43.3%) and HR/FB rate (15.5%), and is supported by a 39.5% hard-hit ball rate. Meanwhile, over the last two years, Turner has made soft contact on only about a dozen out of one hundred balls he puts in play. Those figures put him among the twenty best makers of contact in the game this season, and Turner’s overall offensive productivity also sits comfortably within the top twenty dating back to the start of his tenure in Los Angeles.

That’s impressive enough on its own, but Turner also rates as a high-quality defender. He has consistently drawn above-average marks from Defensive Runs Saved, and UZR has gone from rating him as slightly above average to valuing him as a top-quality gloveman at the hot corner in 2016. A second baseman earlier in his career, Turner could conceivably move around the diamond with another organization, though given his injury history and strong performance at third it seems most likely he’ll stay there.

Really, at this point, questions about Turner’s knee, his relatively advanced age, and a near-certain qualifying offer are really the only limitations on his market. Microfracture surgery is no small thing, and it seems at least that the procedure had some impact on his slow start this year. While his performance over the last two months seemingly quells any near-term concerns, teams weighing multi-year commitments will certainly take a close look at the odds of a recurring problem.

There will be some other quality options available to teams pursuing help at third base. Luis Valbuena, Martin Prado and David Freese are all enjoying fine seasons, and could certainly stake a claim to signing on for everyday roles. Still, it’s hard to argue that any approach Turner, who has clearly been the superior player not only this year but over the last three campaigns.

In terms of contract expectations, the older Ben Zobrist achieved four years and $56MM last year despite carrying a somewhat less impressive immediate track record — both at the plate and in the field. Even Chase Headley achieved a fourth year, taking home a total $52MM commitment, though he was a year younger. While the Daniel Murphy contract, three years and $37.5MM, sets an even lower price (albeit for a second baseman), his big second half of 2015 hadn’t yet been validated by the monster season he is currently having and the glove wasn’t nearly the asset that Turner’s is.

On the high side, the signings of Adrian Beltre (5/$80MM) and Pablo Sandoval (5/$95MM) may establish the upper limits of what Turner could seek. The latter was significantly younger when he signed, and probably represents an unrealistic price point. But the Beltre contract may be more relevant than it seems at first glance. He was entering his age-32 season at the time, just like Turner will be, and was coming off of the same type of season that Turner has now turned in for three years running. While Beltre’s glove gave him a higher floor, his immediate offensive history was actually quite a bit less impressive than Turner’s has been.

Precisely what kind of deal Turner will be able to command will still depend upon how his season ends, along with a whole host of other factors that are largely unknown at this point. And the Dodgers could yet decide to make a last-minute effort at an extension, though we’ve really heard nothing to suggest that’s likely. Regardless of how things proceed from here, it’s clear that Turner has more than made up for the value dip he experienced earlier this year. His stock is firmly on the rise as the open market nears.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch Justin Turner

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Wilson Ramos

By Jeff Todd | August 11, 2016 at 7:51pm CDT

With 380 outstanding plate appearances under his belt this year, it seems fair to say that Wilson Ramos has finally arrived for the Nationals. And he’s done so at an opportune moment for himself as well as the team, as he’ll hit the open market after the season.

Aug 1, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Washington Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Ramos, who turned 29 just yesterday, has had quality campaigns before, but injuries and inconsistencies had raised questions about his future. Coming into the year, it wasn’t even clear whether the Nats would stake an important campaign on the aptly-nicknamed “Buffalo.” Though he was back at full health last year, Ramos had compiled only a .245/.275/.375 batting line over his prior two campaigns, and the Nationals were often cited as a possible suitor for a new backstop via trade or free agency.

Instead, the team bet on Ramos’s talent, and that decision has paid off in spades. Over his 96 games of action entering play today, Ramos owns a .336/.384/.549 slash with a career-best 18 home runs. Even better, he has done that while improving his strikeout (12.6%) and walk (7.4%) rates. Offseason LASIK surgery was cited as a reason for optimism heading into the year, and it certainly seems as if there’s reason to buy into that explanation. Ramos is hitting the ball hard and on a line more than ever before, which helps to support his .347 BABIP (which does still also point to some expected regression). Plus, as noted above, it’s not as if this outburst comes totally out of the blue. Ramos ran up a .269/.327/.449 batting line over 2011-13, though he only managed 834 plate appearances in that span due to an ACL tear suffered in 2012.

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There obviously are some limits to Ramos’s game. He is one of the worst baserunners in baseball, owing to his monster frame. And that bulk also creates some questions about how he’ll age, particularly given that he has dealt with hamstring issues in the past (along with the unfortunate ACL injury and a hamate break). On the other hand, Ramos is rather agile for his size. And he credits an improved offseason workout program for his successes in 2016 — even moreso, perhaps, than the LASIK procedure.

Those factors also tie into Ramos’s work behind the dish, which hasn’t always drawn rave reviews. He has received fairly solid ratings from Baseball Prospectus (as you can find at his BP player card, with a subscription that is well worth considering). Ramos rates well as a pitch framer, though the Stat Corner metrics don’t quite agree on that front. Though he scoops more than he blocks pitches in the dirt, Ramos draws average marks in stopping errant balls. And he’s also rated well with a .349 caught-stealing percentage on the year, which is down a shade from his league-leading .444 mark from 2015. While it’s hard to assess pitch calling and the other nebulous duties of a receiver, Nats manager Dusty Baker says he likes what he sees from Ramos and thinks he still has the ability to improve.

In the aggregate, Ramos leads all catchers with 3.6 fWAR thus far in 2016. His re-emergence ranks as one of the biggest drivers of D.C.’s division-leading effort to this point. Given his importance to the team, and the lack of a clear successor, it is fair to wonder whether there’ll be a late attempt at an extension. Though GM Mike Rizzo has said recently that he’s a believer in Ramos’s talent and thinks a new deal could happen at any time, Ramos has been left waiting on contract talks thus far.

Assuming he does reach free agency, Ramos will join a fairly long list of backstops. At this point, though, he has staked a claim as the top target, especially with Francisco Cervelli already extended by the Pirates. Matt Wieters accepted a qualifying last winter in hopes of a turnaround season, but he’s not delivering thus far. Jason Castro’s excellent 2013 effort is further and further in the rearview mirror. Kurt Suzuki, has had a nice year, but he has an uneven track record and will be entering his age-33 season. Other current or former starting backstops — Nick Hundley, A.J. Ellis, A.J. Pierzynski, Geovany Soto, Alex Avila, Chris Iannetta, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Carlos Ruiz among them — don’t come with nearly the upside of Ramos and probably aren’t really even part of the same market.

Indeed, Ramos recently cracked the free agent power rankings of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, taking the number eight slot alongside other players who will likely be looked upon as potential impact veterans. Dierkes calls a five-year deal a reasonable target, and that does indeed seem plausible — especially when one considers that Ramos won’t turn thirty until next August. The two clear targets in free agent catching contracts are Russell Martin (five years, $82MM) and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM). These comps may not be as much of a stretch as they seem at first glance. Martin had a monster platform year offensively and was a highly-regarded field general, but he was also entering his age-32 campaign and lacked much of a track record of big results at the plate. And though McCann was a top-tier player for some time before his contract, he also had injury issues and one recent season of sub-par offensive production on his record when he signed that deal with the Yankees.

It’s far from certain at this point that Ramos will be able to command that kind of money, but it also seemed questionable that Martin would reach McCann’s stratosphere until his market came together. With relatively few impact players available at premium defensive positions, and Ramos having put some daylight between himself and the other available catchers, demand could be strong. Even teams with solid but non-premium backstops could consider him an upgrade — at least if he keeps this up the rest of the way. The Nats certainly seem like a leading contender for Ramos’s services. Otherwise, the division-rival Braves are said to be hunting for a catcher while organizations like the Tigers, Red Sox, Angels, Orioles, and Astros are among those that could conceivably join the hunt.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of time for interest to materialize and for Ramos to change his fate through his play on the field. He’ll need to stay healthy and productive to maximize his earning ceiling. But as things stand, there may not be a single pending free agent who has improved his stock as much as Ramos has thus far in 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals Wilson Ramos

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Steve Pearce

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | September 25, 2015 at 7:49am CDT

Players don’t get much more difficult to value than Orioles utilityman Steve Pearce. The 32-year-old was little more than a journeyman for much of his career, but that narrative has shifted — and then continued to change — in recent years.

Steve Pearce

Let’s pick things up in 2013, when Pearce put up his first above-average offensive season. He slashed a useful .261/.362/.420 that year for Baltimore, but played in only 44 games. That campaign, combined with the similarly useful .254/.321/.437 line he cobbled together in 28 games the previous season, was good enough for the O’s to give him a $850K arbitration salary. However, that salary wasn’t enough to deter the O’s from an early-season DFA in 2014. The Blue Jays claimed him on waivers, but Pearce declined the claim so he could re-sign with Baltimore.

So, what did Pearce do after going back to the O’s? Only this: slash .293/.373/.556, hit 21 home runs, and post five to six WAR (depending upon one’s preferred source) over 383 plate appearances.

That incredible breakout led to a difficult valuation matter in and of itself, as Pearce presented a hard-to-peg arb case. He and the team split the difference between their widely divergent filing numbers ($2MM from the team, $5.4MM from the player), settling on a $3.7MM salary.

The 2014 version of Pearce looked like a mirage in the early going this year. He limped out of the gates, lost power output and playing time, and ultimately spent a lengthy stretch on the DL. But a funny thing happened, again. It’s a short sample of under 100 plate appearances, but Pearce owns a .230/.316/.529 slash and has hit seven home runs in the season’s second half. However one feels about Pearce’s trajectory, his late-season surge lends some credence to the idea that he can approach — if not replicate — his career-best year.

It’s noteworthy that even the newly-resurgent Pearce doesn’t have the on-base numbers that he carried in his sterling ’14 campaign. Looking at the season as a whole, his walk rate has dropped (from 10.4% to 7%, year over year), and that’s certainly a cause for some level of concern. However, he’s also been had some poor luck. Pearce’s groundball-to-flyball rate and home run-per-flyball rates are steady. His line drive rate is slightly up, and he’s making only slightly less hard contact. But his BABIP has plummeted to .243 — well below his career level and nearly 100 points shy of what he carried last season.

Another thing has occurred along the way that is worthy of note. Pearce had long played exclusively in the corner outfield or at first base. He’s generally received solid-to-good ratings by defensive metrics, though there has been quite a bit of variance in a series of short samples. This year, though, the O’s slotted Pearce in at second when a need arose. He’s only spent 121 2/3 innings there, hardly enough to draw definitive conclusions, but both DRS and UZR combined to value him as an approximately average performer. At the very least, he’s shown enough to think he can play some second base in a pinch, even if there probably aren’t any teams that would consider playing him there with any sort of regularity.

Comps are virtually impossible in this case, but there are at least some data points to consider. Platoon outfielders like Nate McLouth, Rajai Davis, and David Murphy have commanded two-year deals at $5MM to $6MM in annual salary in recent markets. Defensively-limited sluggers such as Michael Morse (two years, $16MM), Marlon Byrd (same), Kendrys Morales (two years, $17MM) and Michael Cuddyer (two years, $21MM) have earned more. On the low end of the spectrum, Jeff Baker and Garrett Jones represent a pair of part-time bats that received relatively minor totals of $3.7MM and $7.75MM on two-year deals. Neither player had ever turned in a season even close to Pearce’s 2014 campaign, so in spite of some 2015 struggles, one would imagine Pearce has separated himself from that range.

Each of the above players was heading into at least his age-32 season when signing, and all but Morales and McLouth were even older than that. Pearce will play next season at the age of 33, so while that certainly adds to the reasons that a longer-term contract will be difficult to strike, it does suggest that multiple years are plausible. There are even some recent lower-AAV three-year deals that ought to be considered, perhaps: Cody Ross ($26MM) and James Loney ($21MM). However, both had a stronger walk year than Pearce as well as a history of more consistent performance, making three years a lofty goal.

It’s hard, really, to know what market to place Pearce in. You could view him as a first base/corner outfield/DH option — a market highlighted by John Jaso and Mike Napoli — or he could be grouped him with super-utility players that could start at multiple positions. That group is, of course, headlined by Ben Zobrist and also includes Daniel Murphy, Kelly Johnson, and — perhaps — Chase Utley.

In terms of 2015 production, Pearce certainly isn’t the most exciting name on the market, but the variety of roles he’s capable of filling and the myriad markets in which he could be included make him one of the more difficult free agents to peg this offseason. Definitive contenders may not wish to guarantee him more than a bench spot, but a non-contending or fringe club could look at Pearce and see a player that has homered 35 times over his past 669 plate appearances and hope that, if given regular playing time, he could hit 25 or more in a single season at what could be a relatively bargain rate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Baltimore Orioles Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Steve Pearce

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Free Agent Stock Watch: John Lackey

By Steve Adams | September 18, 2015 at 3:09pm CDT

For all of the talk about the top names on the 2015-16 free agent market — and there are quite a few, with David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann and many others seeing their contracts expire — John Lackey’s strong season has flown largely under the radar.

Aug 15, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher John Lackey (41) waves to fans as he leaves the game against the Miami Marlins at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps due to his age — Lackey will pitch next season at age 37 — Lackey hasn’t generated the amount of fanfare that his younger peers have enjoyed, but the veteran right-hander has turned in a stellar platform campaign which can serve as the basis for perhaps one final, sizable multi-year contract.

Lackey’s contractual status for 2015 has been well-publicized; the Tommy John surgery he underwent now more than three years ago triggered a clause in his five-year, $82.5MM contract that tacked on a club option at the league minimum. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that Lackey and the Cardinals agreed to add some incentives to the deal, so Lackey will take home a little more than $2MM in 2015 based on innings pitched. It’s an upgrade from his league-minimum base salary, but it’s hardly a payday that is commensurate with the outstanding results turned in by Lackey in his first full season in the National League.

Lackey has, at present, thrown an even 200 innings this season and worked to a 2.79 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a characteristically solid, if unspectacular 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. Sabermetric indicators such as FIP (3.57), xFIP (3.90) and SIERA (4.02) all feel that Lackey has benefited from some good fortune — more specifically his atypical 81.7 percent strand rate. Lackey’s stranded runners at about a 73 percent clip in his career, and abnormal strand rates — whether on the high or low side — have a tendency to regress toward a pitcher’s career rate.

Even if Lackey’s true talent is more of a mid- to upper-3.00 ERA pitcher, however, there’s unquestionably a market for durable, playoff-tested starters that can be penciled in for 30+ starts each season. Lackey looks every bit that part, even with some ERA regression. Over the past three seasons, Lackey’s averaged 30 starts/196 innings per season (those numbers, of course, will go up, as he has a few remaining turns in 2015) and worked to a cumulative 3.37 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of roughly 45 percent. Those peripheral stats are near-mirror images of his 2015 performance, and his average fastball velocity has remained consistent as well, sitting at 91.7 mph or 91.6 mph in each of those seasons.

Lackey may not be a true ace like Price or Zack Greinke, and he may not have the ceiling of some of his second-tier peers such as Scott Kazmir or possess the pure stuff of a Jeff Samardzija. But, what he does bring to the table is a recent history of consistently above-average innings, and that ability has proven to be lucrative in recent years, even for aging pitchers.

Bronson Arroyo landed a two-year, $23.5MM contract from the D-Backs based largely on his ability to rack up league-average innings year after year. Lackey doesn’t have the string of 200+ inning seasons that Arroyo did, but he’s also turned in far better recent results and has historically been a superior pitcher. Tim Hudson landed the same type of contract heading into his age-38 season. Lackey will be a year younger and coming off a brilliant 200-inning season, whereas Hudson didn’t pitch in the final two months of the 2013 campaign due to a fractured ankle. Beyond that, the overall strength of the free agent market has grown a bit since those deals were signed.

Lackey should be able to find, at minimum, a two-year contract with a stronger average annual value than Arroyo and Hudson, but a three-year deal wouldn’t be shocking. His agents at Octagon could very well aim for the sky and seek a deal similar to Derek Lowe’s precedent-setting four-year pact at the age of 37, but that outcome seems unlikely. Barring an injury or complete meltdown in his final few starts and/or the postseason, Lackey is poised for a significant payday — perhaps one that’s larger than many would’ve expected based on his age.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals John Lackey

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Darren O’Day

By Jeff Todd | September 9, 2015 at 4:38pm CDT

Orioles righty Darren O’Day sports one of the most interesting deliveries in all of baseball. His submarine approach is much more than a novelty, however, and the reliever will hit the open market this winter as one of the best late-inning arms available.

Darren O'Day

Since coming to Baltimore before the 2012 season by way of a waiver claim, O’Day ranks eighth among all MLB relievers with a cumulative 1.97 ERA over 197 2/3 innings. And while he isn’t a particular stand-out in terms of FIP-based wins above replacement (more on that below), the 32-year-old has tallied the fourth-most bullpen-based RA/9 WAR in that span.

This season, in many ways, has been O’Day’s best, cementing his status as a lock-down reliever. He owns a double-digit strikeout rate (11.1 K/9) for the first time ever and has averaged just 2.0 walks per nine innings. He carries a career-low 1.69 (just a shade under last year’s results) and a personal-best 2.38 SIERA.

While the SIERA metric has historically viewed O’Day as a consistent sub-3.00 performer, however, O’Day’s run prevention excellence has not always been fully backed by other ERA estimators. FIP and xFIP have both viewed O’Day as a low-to-mid 3.00 ERA pitcher, though he’s posted his best-ever numbers (2.73 and 3.07, respectively) in each this year.

Whichever analytical tool one prefers, at some point, it’s hard to discount the bottom-line results, particularly from a pitcher who utilizes such a unique style. O’Day has allowed a meager .254 batting average on balls in play throughout his career while carrying a hard-hit ball rate that falls below league average — testament to the difficulty opposing hitters have in squaring him up.

To be sure, O’Day has also benefited from a high 84.5% strand rate over his career, which is roughly ten points higher than league average. O’Day is not a high-groundball pitcher and does not generate a ton of double plays. His strikeout capabilities and low WHIP help explain that number, as does the fact that he’s typically permitted low stolen base totals. But there are other factors that have enabled him to generate results that somewhat exceed his own contributions. In particular, O’Day has been backed by an excellent defensive unit in Baltimore.

Then there’s the matter of platoon splits. O’Day has been less useful against lefties, both this season and throughout his career. Batters with the platoon advantage own a .233/.297/.417 total slash line against him — hardly overwhelming numbers, but certainly more damaging than the scant .192/.262/.282 line put up by opposing right-handed hitters. That is neither unique nor surprising, of course, and it hasn’t prevented the veteran from performing as a regular eighth-inning set-up man.

Age is always a factor with free agents, of course, and O’Day is entering his age-33 campaign. But he has never and will never be a pitcher that relies on velocity, and he still works in the same range (87 mph or so) with his fastball that he always has. O’Day’s four-seam/sinker/slider mix has remained consistent in terms of speed and usage over his time in Baltimore and is just as effective as ever. Other soft-tossing side-armers — the nearly-36-year-old Brad Ziegler is a current example — have been able to maintain their run prevention abilities into their mid and late thirties.

Looking at recent free agent comps, it’s hard to ignore Pat Neshek, who parlayed a dominant 2014 season into two years and $12.5MM (while handing over a variable-value club option for another year). But while he too is a sidearming righty, Neshek looks more like a lower-end target. Neshek was not only one year older but also lacked the extensive track record compiled by O’Day in recent seasons.

Another Astros signee, Luke Gregerson, arguably makes for a more accurate comparison. The righty turned 31 in the first year of his three-year, $18.5MM pact (with incentive escalators), so he was a fair bit younger. But his run of excellence before hitting the market is a closer match for O’Day, who should have a good chance of getting a third guaranteed year at or near the price tag achieved by Gregerson.

Certainly, one can envision O’Day’s representatives at Beverly Hills Sports Council will be looking for at least that to start out, as many relievers have achieved three-year deals in recent years. For example, fellow side-armer Joe Smith inked a three-year, $15.75MM pact with the Angels prior to the 2014 campaign, and O’Day’s numbers — both in his contract year and in the multi-year platform leading up to free agency — trump those of Smith. That deal will also be two years old this winter, and the market for relievers arguably took a step forward last offseason.

Speaking of the market for relievers, O’Day will also be aided by the fact that this coming winter’s market does not include quite the array of top-of-the-line arms that was present last year. His primary competition in terms of right-handed relievers will come from players like Tyler Clippard, Joakim Soria, and possibly Joaquin Benoit (if his option is not exercised). All have arguments in their favor as high-end arms, but none are at the level of David Robertson or Andrew Miller, and factors like injuries, age, uneven results, and/or heavy usage will impact their appeal.

However one ranks O’Day among that group, it’s a nice market to enter for him to enter. And with an outstanding 2015 season nearing a close, he’s well-situated to cash in.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Baltimore Orioles Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Darren O'Day

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