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I realized recently that I don’t know a lot about how trades and discussions between GMs actually go down. Fortunately, ESPN’s Keith Law was able to fill in the gaps for me in our Q&A below. Keith was formerly the assistant GM in Toronto under J.P. Ricciardi.
What steps does a team take to ensure that trade discussions don’t leak out to the media or to other teams?
You limit the number of people who are know the details of the discussions. There’s not much more you can do, and you’re always trusting the other side to keep offers and discussions to themselves.
About how many people from each team are privy to a trade discussion with another team?
Depends entirely on the FO. In Toronto, it was usually around a half-dozen people, sometimes as many as ten. I think most FOs play it closer to the vest.
Are intentional media leaks common?
Absolutely, and they’re not all true.
What are the logistics of trade discussions – is it typically one GM on the phone with another, followed up by consulting with the GM’s inner circle before a callback is made?
Every trade discussion that happened while I was with Toronto either came about as a GM-to-GM phone call, or as something that came up at the winter meetings, usually where the two GMs would meet in one team’s suite, occasionally with the assistant GMs there too.
Are emails or conference calls between front offices common?
Not while I was with Toronto, but Ricciardi wasn’t a big email guy. I know of some GMs who are much more comfortable with email and so I’m sure they’re more willing to at least start a discussion on email. But for what is essentially a negotiation, phone beats email, and in-person beats phone when you can swing it.
Have you heard about 32 year-old righthanded starter Koji Uehara? He’s a free agent likely to come over from Japan to MLB this winter (no posting fee). I wanted to learn more about him, so I consulted the authority on such matters: Mike Plugh. Mike runs the Uehara Watch blog. He also has Matsuzaka Watch and writes for Baseball Prospectus.
You can read Part 1 of our Q&A here; a few additional questions are below.
Do you know of any specific teams that are expected to pursue Uehara? I’ve read that the Angels like him.
I think the Angels are the team to watch with Uehara, simply because the drafted him out of college many years ago. He almost came to the Majors as a 23-year old, but the lure of the Yomiuri Giants proved too strong to pry him away. There’s a relationship there, albeit one from the distant past. Other than the Angels, I think you’ll see a lot of teams trying to get in on the action. There’s a huge market for Japanese players around the Major Leagues that is only growing. The Mets are very eager to get into Japan again. The Cubs seem to be active as well, and perhaps the Braves. The list may include every MLB club, so it’s a matter of money in the end, just like every other free agent. Would he play for the Mariners with Ichiro in center and Johjima is his backstop? Maybe. A lot of intriguing scenarios are out there.
Tell us a little bit about Koji as a person.
As for his personality, Uehara is very easygoing. He’s a funny guy by all accounts with a good sense of humor. He likes to keep things relaxed, but he’s extremely professional as are almost all Japanese athletes. He has a typically disciplined work ethic and is very focused in practice and on the field. He’d fit in virtually anywhere, although I think he’ll want to play on a winner if given a reasonable choice. He’s over 30 and may have a small window of opportunity to contribute to a championship ballclub.
Right fielder Kosuke Fukudome is going to be a big deal this winter. He’s the next big thing from Japan, and you can scroll through multiple posts on him here.
But there’s another name surfacing on the radar: 32 year-old righthanded starter Koji Uehara. He’s a free agent likely to come over to MLB this winter (no posting fee). I wanted to learn more about him, so I consulted the authority on such matters: Mike Plugh. Mike runs the Uehara Watch blog. He also has Matsuzaka Watch and writes for Baseball Prospectus.
Our Uehara Q&A ran long so I’m breaking this up into two posts.
You’ve described Uehara as having an 88-90 mph fastball as well as many other pitches. Is his forkball his bread and butter? Is there anyone in MLB past or present you’d compare him to?
Koji Uehara has a fastball that tops out at 94-95mph, but he rarely hits that velocity anymore. His hallmark is control and he uses a slower fastball, at about 88-89 on the corners, more effectively as a veteran. His plus pitches include a knee-buckling forkball, a nice curve, and an effective slider. If I had to compare him to a Major Leaguer, I’d go with a more sturdy Brad Radke. He’s about the same size, right-handed, and has such amazing control that I’d be comfortable with that kind of expectation.
Given the apparent failure of Kei Igawa in the AL East, do you think American League teams will shy away from Uehara this winter? Is Uehara better than Igawa?
I think there are a number of teams that will be scared away from Uehara based on having seen Kazuhisa Ishii, Hideki Irabu, and Kei Igawa coming out of Japan’s Central League. Those teams probably will have made a mistake by not doing their homework. Uehara is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. Where the other players had good numbers in Japan, Uehara also brings the same type of translatable ability that Daisuke Matsuzaka has. He knows how to pitch.
Uehara has been used as a reliever this year. Was that a surprise to you, and which role do you think he’ll fill for an MLB team?
The shift that Yomiuri has made this season hurts his potential value. The Giants used Uehara as their closer to break him in during a late start, the result of a lingering hamstring injury suffered in Spring Training. The team raced off to a fast start and management decided to keep him there. He’s excelled in the role, but he’s not happy. He’s one of the premiere starters in Japan and shouldn’t be in the closer’s role. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Giants are doing it to spite him, as they know he will be gone next year. In no way, shape, or form should he be considered anything but a starter in the Major Leagues.
Many thanks to Mike Plugh for the interview. I’ll post a couple of closing questions in Part 2 on Friday.
Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson was kind enough to answer a few questions for MLBTradeRumors.com. He seems like a smart guy; I was impressed by the content and honesty of his answers. I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing him in a Cubs uniform ten years from now.
When did you first realize that you might one day play in the Major Leagues?
Honestly the first time was when I got called up in 2004 after our final game in AA Erie. Up until that point, I thought about and hoped I would be able to, but never thought I would get a chance to do it so fast.
You grew up near Chicago. What would it be like for you to play for the Cubs or White Sox one day?
For me it would be a little rough to play for one of the Chicago teams, because I know so many people there. A lot of the people that I know there are also big fans of one or both of those teams, and would try to get a lot of information out of me. I’m not sure if I would want to play there, but towards the end of my career I could see it possibly. I know I will always have a house in Chicago, so you can never discount anything.
Do you have any lineup preference? Do you take a different approach leading off than if you are hitting in another spot?
Honestly my favorite spot to hit is the second spot, but I haven’t done that in almost two years. The second spot gives you a lot of freedom especially if your leadoff hitter gets on. The second hitter can move a runner over by bunting, hit and run, or getting a hit through the hole at 1 st base. In the leadoff spot my approach really only changes in the leadoff spot later in the game when our team really needs me to get on base. I have to try my best to get on base any way possible. That is really the only time, and when I lead the game off, I’m not trying to draw a walk, I’m not trying to see pitches, I’m trying to get a hit and get on base.
I’ve read that you’re trying a new batting stance. How is that going so far? Do you think you’ll stick with it?
The new stance is very simple. All we (Lloyd McClendon and I) did was try to eliminate a lot of wasted movement before I swing at the baseball. Hopefully this will make me quicker to the ball and allow for easy correction if something wrong starts happening over a period of time. It has worked out pretty well for the most part this spring, but it is only spring training. Pitchers aren’t at 100 percent yet, so when the season starts and we get a month into it, we will see how it is. I like it right now though.
Are there any players on the club who serve as mentors for you?
I’m not sure if there is one particular mentor for me on this team because a lot of people have been teaching me different things since I made my debut in 2004. Nate Robertson and Vance Wilson have taught me different things about the Players Union. Craig Monroe, Gary Sheffield, and Marcus Thames are teaching me different things about hitting situations. Andy Van Slyke has taught me a lot about baserunning and also playing the outfield. Kenny Rogers teaches me different things about how opposing pitchers might pitch me. So you can see that everyone has been taking a role in trying to develop and build me into a better player.
Rockies starter Jason Hirsh was recently ranked the 42nd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Recently, he was kind enough to answer some questions for MLB Trade Rumors via email. Jason and his brother Matt maintain a website called Brothers In Arms; check it out.
It appears that you were nearly traded to the White Sox in early December for Jon Garland. Did that possibility take you by surprise? What are your feelings on the city of Chicago?
I had heard about the ChiSox rumor and then it was finally in USA today and I really didn't think anything of it. I called my agent and asked him if he had heard anything and he said no, it was just a bunch of talk from the winter meetings that someone from the media got hold of and ran with it. I thought Chicago would have been cool, everyone I know says the town is awesome and I know the fans are very loyal.
Did the near-White Sox trade give you a chance to prepare mentally for the eventual deal to Colorado about a week later?
I took the ChiSox deal with a grain of salt so I was completely blindsided by the deal to Colorado. I don't think anything could have mentally prepared me for that bombshell when it was dropped on me.
The Rockies have an "organization guided by Christianity" (see article here). Is this drastically different than your past clubhouses? Do you feel comfortable in this environment as a member of the Jewish faith?
Being in the clubhouse now for the last few weeks here in Spring Training I have never felt more comfortable around a group of guys in my professional career. Everyone is very accepting of me and they are all friendly, even the seasoned vets. I feel as though I've been with this organization my whole career so its definitely comforting to know that everyone gets along even though some of us come from different backgrounds.
Colorado has more starting pitching depth than ever…would you be disappointed not to make the starting rotation right away? Are you comfortable in the bullpen?
I think I would be disappointed for sure if I didnt make the rotation out of Spring Training. I was told when the trade went down that I was going to be a vital part of this rotation this year and then they went out and signed like 4 more starting pitchers. I understand that they are trying to create competition and get the most bang for their buck, but I think that I can outdo them all and win a spot in this rotation. I'm not very comfortable in the bullpen, I've been raised as a starter my whole life/career so coming from the pen is not my cup of tea so to speak. I have a difficult time getting loose and getting into the mindframe of a reliever, but if the pen is where I'm destined to go then so be it, but I believe I'm better suited for starting.
How do you feel about your changeup these days? Do you have confidence to throw it at any time?
Personally I feel like my changeup is my second best pitch right now behind my fastball. My confidence in it has swooned the last two years. I've really got a feel for it and I'm definitely not afraid to throw it in any count to any hitter.
Do you think you'll ever get a chance to pitch against your brother Matt?
I hope that at some point down the line in my career that both Matt and I will have the opportunity to pitch against each other, but I know he still has a lot of development ahead of him, but I know he'll make it!
What’s it like working with Lou Piniella? Any major differences compared to years past?
Lou is a professional. He expects a lot of stuff from everyone and that’s a good thing. It’s too early to talk about the differences between this year and last year, but everyone is really excited for the year to begin.
What do you see as the Cubs’ biggest obstacle in making the playoffs this year?
Do you have any preference as to which spot you hit in the batting order?
No, not really. I just want to help the Cubs win. Wherever Lou wants me to bat, I’m going to hit in that spot.
Based on what you’ve seen so far in camp, what are your thoughts on new additions Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis?
Those are two veterans who have been around the game for a long time and I’m very excited to work with both of them. They both came in to camp looking like they are ready to go and I can’t wait to see how they pitch in the beginning of the season. I know everyone here is happy to see them both.
Do you ever say anything to opposing hitters to rattle their cages?
I don’t like throwing gas on the fire. If I say anything, the hitter ends up turning that against me and hits a home run. If I say anything, it gets them more excited and focused on performing well. If anything, I’ll say something to the pitcher.
What’s the best clubhouse prank you’ve seen?
Troy Renck is the Rockies/MLB beat reporter for the Denver Post. You see his name here often with exclusive rumors and info from his columns for that paper. Troy was kind enough to answer a bunch of my Rockies-related questions for MLBTradeRumors. Below is the second half of the interview; you can read the first half here.
Which pitcher is more likely to be traded this spring, Josh Fogg or Byung-Hyun Kim?
This will play out slowly, not unlike how the Rockies originally ended up with Kim two years ago just as camp broke. Kim is cheaper and his funky arm angle can neutralize a hitter’s park. He hasn’t shown consistency as a starter and is only comfortable in the bullpen as a closer. Fogg’s contract — $3.625 million — complicates any trade. The Rockies brought up his name when acquiring Lopez from the Orioles, but quickly pulled him back.
There was a lot of interest in Chin-Hui Tsao after the Rockies non-tendered him. What do you think of that decision?
From the outside looking in, Tsao’s departure is a headscratcher. He only got $100,000 guaranteed from the Dodgers. But having watched his rehab play out last season, it was clear that Tsao wanted a fresh start. He’s the most talented Rockies’ prospect I have ever seen. But it just didn’t seem like he was every going to escape the black cloud if he stayed in Denver. I’d like to see him have a career given his talent, hardly certain given his two serious surgeries on his shoulder and elbow. Anyway, he definitely wanted a fresh start somewhere else.
The Rockies have more young talent than ever. In your opinion, when does it all gel to create a playoff team?
The farm system, barren for years, is starting to churn out impact players, like Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday. The key will be able to win and regenerate the young talent as the kids start to make money. If the payroll remains low and Todd Helton isn’t traded, the Rockies are going to face some difficult choices on which young players to keep this offseason. So, it’s difficult to answer when they will make the playoffs because of the roster issues looming. If they win, attendance theoretically increases, inflating the payroll. That would point to 2008 as a playoff year. But it’s too fluid right now for me to predict that with any certainty.
Troy Renck is the Rockies/MLB beat reporter for the Denver Post. You see his name here often with exclusive rumors and info from his columns for that paper. Troy was kind enough to answer a bunch of my Rockies-related questions for MLBTradeRumors. Below is the first half of the interview.
Will the Rockies be able to rekindle Todd Helton trade talks with Boston, Baltimore, or another team year? Do you take Todd at his word that he’d veto any deal at this point?
Troy: It’s possible they could revisit talks, specifically with Boston. But Helton’s promise not to accept a trade during the season places a statue of limitations on any new talks. My calculated guess is that trade discussions won’t resurface in earnest until the offseason.
How would you grade Dan O’Dowd’s offseason?
Troy: O’Dowd made a terrific, if not unpopular trade by acquiring Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsh for Jason Jennings. Hirsh is the key. If he realizes his potential, he could become Jennings at a much cheaper price for several years. Taveras helps in center field, though I am not sure he’s a longterm solution. The preference would be to have more power from that position. Getting Rodrigo Lopez provides a potential innings-eater to ease Jennings’ absence. Lopez struggled mightily last year. The Rockies think he can have success again because he’s not coming off an injury and will be paroled from the AL East.
His best under-the-radar move was adding Brian Lawrence, who, if healthy, could give the rotation a jolt in May.
Recently Bob Bavasi, owner of the fine website JapanBall.com, was kind enough to answer some questions for MLBTradeRumors.com. Bob tells me that he recently got back from his JapanBall.com baseball tour, where he encountered a variety of scouts, writers, and team personnel. His answers are in bold.
What kind of posting fee do you see for Matsuzaka? Ichiro cost $13MM; could Matsuzaka require $20MM?
Still one year away from Japanese free agency, RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, 26, of the Seibu Lions (just outside of Tokyo), is considered the hottest prospect by the MLB scouts. The Lions will allow Matsuzaka to post, a process wherein MLB teams give the Lions sealed bids, the highest bidder getting negotiating rights to the pitcher…the Lions getting a bundle of dough.
What could he go for? I’ve heard numbers from $17 to $28 million for the posting fee to the Lions. Then the MLB club must, of course, sign the player.
It seems like as many as ten teams could be after him. What kind of contract would you expect him to sign once an MLB team has his rights?
His agent is Scott Boras, and none of his players have been known to sign on the cheap. But certainly the club will be looking for a long contract what with the money they’ll have just spent to simply acquire the rights to sign Matsuzaka. I’ve heard numbers as high as $70 million for the contract, if you can believe that.
So far, I’ve seen reports on the following teams interested in Matsuzaka: Angels, Royals, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Dodgers, and Mariners. Based on Japanese media have any other MLB teams scouted him?
All the clubs have scouted him, but it really comes down to the wherewithal to place the big bet. Also, with regard to your list, I wouldn’t count San Diego out.
Do you expect any other players to be posted this winter?
Yakult Swallows (Tokyo) third baseman Akinori Iwamura has been talked about as a candidate to be posted this winter as are RHP Kaz Saito of the Softbank Hawks (Fukuoka) and LHP Kei Igawa with the Hanshin Tigers (Osaka).
Which Japanese free agents could end up on Major League rosters next spring?
RHP Hiroki Kuroda of the Carp will be a free agent, not subject to posting, and you hear his name bandied about in this regard.
If you were building a team, which Japanese player would you choose with the #1 pick?
I like the pitcher we started this conversation about, but, if you are giving me a free pick, I might mention that I chatted with Wayne Graczyk, baseball columnist for The Japan Times and editor of the Japan Baseball Media Guide, who said that the consensus of the scouts he’d visited with who’d recently come through Japan said that Kosuke Fukudome, outfielder for the Chunichi Dragons was the best all-around Japanese player.
Could you assess the likelihood of Kei Igawa being posted? I have read that the team’s owner does not plan on posting him.
While he’s been discussed I’m not certain if he’ll be posted. If you’re a Japanese baseball team owner, there is generally no point is posting a player until he’s very close to free agency. Igawa has signed with the Hanshin Tigers through the 2008 season, so I tend to think they’d keep him for one more year before doing the posting.
Do you have any insight as to how the Japanese perceive the posting system?
For the teams it’s terrific. You can get something for your player rather
than a whole bunch of nothing when he becomes a free agent.
Do fans enjoy it when players leave to play MLB?
The posting process lends some excitement for fans who always wrestle with being disappointed in losing the player, but being happy that another Japanese can compete in MLB.
We do our JapanBall.com Baseball Experience Tour each September. The year Ichiro signed with Seattle I saw Mariners logos and Ichiro photos just as soon as I left the airplane upon landing in Tokyo. He was everywhere. On billboards, on giant TV screens on the sides of buildings, in subway car advertisements.
Japan baseball attendance started to wane as folks began watching MLB games on TV. Now things are a little more settled down.
Japanese baseball has reacted by making their ballparks much more fan-friendly and teams are starting to play more aggressive, exciting baseball. They’ve just imported their fourth American field manager to help in that regard. The Central League will adopt a playoff formula similar to that which is a hit in the Pacific League. And fans are beginning to respond at the turnstiles.
Thanks for your time, Bob!
John Hickey covers the Mariners for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, writing frequent columns and even manning a blog. John was kind of enough to provide insight into all sorts of Mariners questions.
MLBTradeRumors: What’s your take on the extra day off for Kenji Johjima? Was Hargrove sending any kind of message or was there a miscommunication?
John Hickey: It’s an odd thing, really. Historically, when Hargrove gets a backup player into the lineup, he likes to get him two games in a row. (Willie Bloomquist gets two as often as not). So there is the thought that he was just being consistent in doing that for Rene Rivera. But mostly he just seems to want to make sure Johjima stays strong. Johjima played lots in Japan and will play lots here, but the season is about 27 games longer here — an extra month. Johjima has never played that much. So extra time off is warranted. Also, the Mariners only had two off days in April when normally they would have four or more. So that’s a factor.
MLBTR: Who do you think Hargrove will turn to first in the 9th inning if he gives up on Eddie Guardado – Putz or Soriano? Which pitcher would you choose?
JH: You go with Guardado for now. But he doesn’t have endless time to get his game together. He either is the productive closer he was or he works in setup relief for Soriano.
MLBTR: Richie Sexson: just an early slump, or something more?
JH: Hard to tell. The large number of strikeouts are alarming. But Seattle has faced very tough pitching, so some slumps are to be expected. To have every bat go south in unison, however, is alarming on any number of levels.
MLBTR: Carl Everett is hitting .212. Do you think Roberto Petagine gets a shot at DH at some point despite Everett’s contract?
JH: I would think so if another three weeks or a month goes by and there is no noticeable improvement, Hargrove will have to explore his other options.
MLBTR: Can you name which players you think are most likely to be traded this summer by the Mariners?
JH: This all assumes they’re not anywhere close to first place. In that case, Guardado, Moyer, Everett and Meche are strong candidates to go … if anyone is interested. Beltre could be on that list, too, but I think it would be impossible to move that contract without some sign that he’s something more than a singles hitter.
MLBTR: Will we see Shin-Soo Choo or Adam Jones in Seattle anytime soon? They are both hitting well in Triple A.
JH: Overall the club is higher on Jones than on Choo. But Choo has been up before and hasn’t really gotten a chance, so I’d think they go to him first. Remember, as soon as they call up Jones, there is no turning back the clock. He starts ticking off time toward salary arbitration and free agency. When a prospect is that good (if he in fact is), you want him to come up ready to play every day, or there is no point starting that clock.
MLBTR: Do you expect to see Daisuke Matsuzaka in a Mariners uniform in 2007? He and Felix would make a hell of a 1-2 punch.
JH: Do I expect it? I think the Mariners have a better shot at him than most of the other clubs, but Seattle is one of 30 options. He’s going to be 27 and free agent, and he was already considered the best pitcher in Japan before he turned in a standup performance in the WBC. It’s hard to see Seattle not making a strong run at him.
MLBTR: Is Mike Hargrove gone after this season if the Mariners don’t win?
JH: I would thing GM Bill Bavasi would be even more on the hot seat than Hargrove. He has presided over back-to-back 90-loss seasons, and (as i write this) a 9-15 start to the 2006 season. But, yes, Hargrove could be gone too if things don’t turn around.
MLBTR: Thanks for your time, John! Don’t be a stranger.