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Poll: Who Will Win The Wild Card Series?

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The 2025 regular season is in the books, and the baseball world is now gearing up for what might be a wild postseason.  It took until Game 162 to finalize the full slate of playoff teams and matchups, but now we know the eight clubs who will take part in the wild card round that begins on Tuesday, as “October baseball” gets started a bit early this year on September 30.  All WCS matchups are best-of-three, and will take place entirely in the home ballpark of the higher-seeded team.

The Guardians will meet the Tigers again after Cleveland posted a 5-1 record against Detroit over a pair of series in the last two weeks, contributing to the AL Central’s epic shakeup.  The Tigers held a 9.5-game lead in the division before going 3-13 over their last 16 games to barely eke out a wild card slot.  The Guards, meanwhile, went 19-4 over their final 23 games to overtake Detroit and claim Cleveland’s third division title in the last four years.

After all of that, the two clubs find themselves facing off in the postseason for the second straight year.  The Guardians needed the full five games to oust Detroit in the 2024 AL Division Series, as last season the Tigers were the team surging into the playoffs after a late-season hot streak.  All of the momentum is on the Guardians’ side at this point, and even though the Tigers will have Tarik Skubal going in Game 1, Cleveland’s pitching has been on such a roll that the Guards have the overall pitching advantage.  The Guardians held an 8-5 record against the Tigers in regular-season play this year.

One of baseball’s greatest rivalries will be renewed again in October when the Yankees host the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.  The Yankees lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Blue Jays to fall just short of the AL East crown, despite an eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season.  New York’s rotation and homer-heavy offense seem to be clicking at the right time, yet the Sox had seemingly had the Yankees’ number this year, with a 9-4 record in head-to-head play.

After falling short to the Dodgers in last year’s World Series, the Yankees are eager to return the Fall Classic and finally win the first championship of the Aaron Judge era.  Boston hasn’t quite been the same since Roman Anthony was lost to an oblique injury in early September and the rookie star’s status remains unclear for postseason action.  However, the Red Sox have a well-rounded roster and an ace of their own in Garrett Crochet, plus the organization is hungry for postseason success in their first playoff trip since 2021.

The Cubs have also just ended a mini-drought in reaching October for the first time since the shortened 2020 season, as Chicago stepped up to win 92 games after posting 83-79 records in both 2023 and 2024.  They’ll now host the Padres in the first postseason meeting between the two clubs since 1984, when San Diego fought back from a 2-0 series deficit to win a best-of-five NLCS and deny Chicago a trip to the World Series.  Forty-one years later, it’s the Padres who might feel slightly more cursed at the moment, since the club has yet to advance beyond the NLCS in their three previous playoff trips in the last six seasons.

There’s plenty of pressure on the Friars to finally reach the pinnacle of this era of success, though Chicago is hoping for more than just a playoff appearance after its win-now trade for Kyle Tucker last winter.  After starting 38-22, the Cubs have been more okay than elite (54-48) over the better part of the last four months.  The series’ Wrigleyville locale could be impactful, as the Padres were only 38-43 on the road this season.

The Dodgers host the Reds in a matchup of two teams with very different recent postseason histories.  Los Angeles has won 12 of the last 13 NL West titles, and is looking to become baseball’s first repeat World Series champ since the 1998-2000 Yankees pulled off the three-peat.  Cincinnati, meanwhile, is in the playoffs for just the fifth time in the last 30 years, and the Reds haven’t won a playoff series since all the way back in 1995 — when they beat the Dodgers in the NLDS.

Winning “only” 93 games counts as a relative disappointment by the Dodgers’ standards, and the club will need to navigate an extra playoff round.  This puts more pressure on the beleaguered L.A. bullpen, and Will Smith’s participation is a question mark due to a hairline fracture in his right hand.  The rotation is on a roll, however, and naturally there’s a lot of built-in playoff experience for the reigning champs.  The young Reds gained some seasoning in beating out the Mets for a wild card berth, and of course manager Terry Francona is no stranger to October.  Cincinnati’s rotation and bullpen will need to continue their excellent form to counter Shohei Ohtani and company, and the wild card series would be a great time for the inconsistent Reds lineup to get on track.

Which four teams do you think will reach the Division Series?  Vote now in our polls:

Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?

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This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.

A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.

That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.

While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.

Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi’s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.

If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.

How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Jack Flaherty’s Player Option

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Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.

Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.

After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.

His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.

When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.

Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.

Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.

While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.

How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can The Guardians Push Their Way Into The Postseason?

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A lot has changed in the AL Wild Card scene in the two weeks since MLBTR’s last poll about the race. At the time, there were three clubs within two games of catching the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot, and aside from an outside chance of Houston losing the AL West the rest of the playoff field looked more or less set.

Now, the Mariners have surged ahead of the pack to run down the Astros in the West, while the Red Sox have slumped badly to the point where their ticket getting punched is no longer a foregone conclusion. The Rays (nine games back of a Wild Card spot), Royals (seven games back) and even the Rangers (4.5 games back) are all extreme long shots, meaning that if anyone is going to shake up the AL playoff field, it will be a team that wasn’t even included in our poll from two weeks ago: the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games, and the 80-71 Guards now sit 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. Starters Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, and Joey Cantillo have all been excellent since the All-Star break, while Kyle Manzardo and Jose Ramirez have carried the offense. The fabled bullpen that pushed Cleveland into the postseason last year has shown up again this season (even without Emmanuel Clase), and that unit has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Guardians with the lowest FIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball since the start of August.

What makes the Guardians most interesting as a possible late entrant into the postseason picture, however, is that they actually control their own destiny in the AL Central as well. The division has looked more or less locked up for the Tigers all year long, but a 5-9 record so far in September alongside Cleveland’s surge has left them vulnerable with four games (including one today) left on the schedule between the two clubs.

With two avenues to a playoff spot on the table, the Guardians are arguably the most interesting team to watch over the final few days of the regular season. The playoff odds at FanGraphs are skeptical, giving Cleveland a 16.4% chance to make the postseason this year entering play today. That’s actually the best odds of any team not currently in playoff position, but it still highlights the tough road the Guardians will have to hoe if they’re going to play in October.

That said, Cleveland does have one thing in its favor: the schedule. The Guardians benefit from four games against the lowly Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since their massive sell-off at the trade deadline. Cleveland also has a remaining series against an injury-ravaged Rangers team to wrap up the 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox actually face each other in the final series of the regular season. If the Guardians can just remain in spitting distance of both teams until then, they’ll have an opportunity to make up a game or two in the standings over that final weekend.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Guardians be able to pull it off and shake up the playoff field? Or will they be left on the outside looking in this October? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Luis Robert Jr.’s Option

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While they won’t be breaking the major league record for losses this year like they did in 2024, it’s been another tough year for the White Sox. They’ve lost 95 games and could lose 100 games for the third year in a row. Emerging young players like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery have made this season a little easier for fans on the south side of Chicago to stomach, but there’s still little reason to expect the team to contend in 2026.

One of the most important offseason decisions for the White Sox has been whether to exercise a $20MM option on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. or pay him a $2MM buyout, though it seems they’ve generally already made up their mind. As soon as the Sox opted not to trade him at the deadline, it seemed likely Robert would be back in 2026 as opposed to bought out for no return. General manager Chris Getz has suggested as much on multiple occasions, and just this morning he told reporters that he expects Robert to be a part of the club next season (link via Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times). The question, then, is less about what they will do and whether or not they’re right to do it.

With Robert all but confirmed to be done for the 2025 campaign due to a hamstring strain, his numbers appear locked in. After slashing .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) with 14 homers in 100 games last year, Robert produced a nearly identical .223/.297/.364 line (82 wRC+) and slugged 14 homers in 110 games in 2025. Between that apparent lack of progress and Robert’s continued injury woes, it might seem difficult to understand why the White Sox would stick with him rather than simply viewing him as a sunk cost.

Despite his eerily similar (and disappointing) numbers, however, digging a little deeper into Robert’s 2025 numbers actually reveals reason for optimism. He stole ten more bases this year than last, going 33-for-41 as opposed to 2024’s 23-for-29. Robert’s defense is also showing signs of a rebound, as he jumped from a Fielding Run Value of 0 in 2024 to a +7 figure this year, good for top 10 among center fielders in baseball this year.

More encouraging than either of those changes are the differences in his approach at the plate. While Robert’s overall slash line doesn’t look terribly different, he cut his strikeout rate from 33.2% in ’24 to a more manageable 26% in ’25. His 9.8% walk rate isn’t just an improvement over last year’s 6.6% mark — it’s a new career-high. Robert also did his best work this summer, rebounding from a slow start to hit .274/.335/.458 with nine homers, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate over his final 198 plate appearances. That was 17% better than average, per wRC+.

As shown by Statcast, Robert’s bat speed dropped in 2024, but he’s rebounded to elite levels in 2025, ranking in the 92nd percentile of big leaguers. That could suggest there’s still some untapped power upside, but even if his days of crushing baseballs on a 30 to 40 homer pace are behind him, the combination of improved discipline, baserunning, and defense leave him in a solid position to be a three-to-four win player in the future if he can just stay healthy — though that is a colossal “if.”

It’s arguable that it’s worth an $18MM roll of the dice, particularly considering the fact that Cody Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason after back-to-back down seasons with the Dodgers. Like Robert, Bellinger was coming off injury-marred seasons where he didn’t look like himself at the plate but had shown some signs of improvement in his final year in Los Angeles. Bellinger, of course, rewarded the north siders for their gamble with an All-Star campaign in 2023 and has posted a 123 wRC+ with 10.9 fWAR over the past three seasons.

On the other hand, locking Robert in for another year comes with glaringly obvious risk. With the White Sox unlikely to contend in 2026, on-field production will only benefit the team if it can then be converted into trade capital. The White Sox have had a lot of difficulty getting what they perceive to be fair value for Robert over the years, and even if he has a big first half in 2026, teams might be scared away by his uncertain history.

Furthermore, Robert’s 110 games played in 2025 are actually the second-most of his entire career. He’s never played even 150 games in a season. One first-half injury could leave Robert with little trade value next year, and force the White Sox into another situation a lot like the one they find themselves in this year as they stare down another $20MM option for the 2027 campaign.

What do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should be doing about Robert? Should they pick up his option and bet on better days in the future, or would they be better off sending him on his way and using that $18MM in savings elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can The Diamondbacks Push Their Way Into The Playoffs?

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It wasn’t even two weeks ago when MLBTR did a poll regarding whether or not anything could shake up the seemingly-stagnant NL playoff picture. At the time, more than 64% of respondents believed that the sextet of clubs in postseason position (Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, and Mets) would be the ones to ultimately represent the senior circuit in October. The playoff odds over at FanGraphs were even more bullish on that group, as New York’s 95.2% chance to make the postseason was the lowest out of those six clubs.

A lot has changed since then regarding the perception of the NL’s playoff field. While five of the aforementioned six teams are still all but guaranteed to play in October, the Mets have entered a freefall. While a win on Sunday snapped their losing streak at eight games, they’re still 4-9 in September and 15-26 since the start of August (though they’re beating up on the Padres tonight). That extended slump has opened the door for the hangers-on in the NL playoff field to take advantage and, while the Reds and Giants have mostly spun their wheels with 75-75 records headed into the final two weeks of the season, one team has taken full advantage to force themselves back into the conversation: the Arizona Diamondbacks, who weren’t even a listed option for the postseason in that aforementioned early September poll.

With an 8-5 record in September and 25-17 since the start of August, Arizona’s been almost the inverse of the Mets over the past six weeks. Despite selling off everyone from Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller at the deadline, they’ve fought their way back over .500 and now sit just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot with 11 games to go after last night’s win over the Giants. It’s very impressive for the team to have rebounded this well over the past few weeks, and a lot of things needed to go the right way for that to happen.

Since the start of August, Zac Gallen (2.68 ERA), Ryne Nelson (3.61 ERA), and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.63 ERA) have all looked like quality starters, while Nabil Crismatt has broken out to deliver 30 innings of 2.70 ERA ball in the rotation since making his season debut on August 17. The offense, meanwhile, has gotten sensational performances out of not just superstars like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, but also lower profile talents like Geraldo Perdomo (174 wRC+ in 192 plate appearances) and Gabriel Moreno (166 wRC+ in 74 plate appearances). Even rookie Blaze Alexander (124 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances) has done a great job letting fans in Arizona forget about the loss of Suarez.

As monumental as the team’s efforts to force their way into the postseason have been, they still face a very uphill climb even as they sit just a game and a half back. The schedule has done them absolutely no favors. After this series against the Giants, they’ll run a gauntlet of Phillies, Dodgers, and Padres to close out the season. Perhaps the series in Philadelphia won’t be as difficult as it might look on paper if the Phils ease off the gas after clinching the NL East last night, but L.A. and San Diego remain locked in a close battle for the NL West and surely won’t make it easy for their division rivals in the desert to finish this attempt at a comeback.

All of that leaves Arizona with just a 7.7% chance to make the postseason entering play today, according to FanGraphs. Those are long odds, and while they’ll surely improve at least somewhat if the Diamondbacks can put the Giants to bed in this ongoing series, even a sweep isn’t especially likely to move the needle unless the Mets help them out by doing a lot of losing in the coming days. Even then, the Giants and Reds both lurk just half a game behind the Snakes. A series loss to the Giants would likely spell the end of Arizona’s hopes then and there, and a schedule that affords Cincinnati five more games against the struggling Cardinals and Pirates should keep them competitive even if Arizona can dispatch San Francisco.

Unlikely as it may seem on paper, however, an eight-game September losing streak in Queens and the Diamondbacks winning at a .595 clip after trading off their best players didn’t seem terribly likely either. Could Arizona really finish the job and return to the postseason this year? Have your say in the poll below:

Here’s a backup link for poll in case the first one isn’t showing up

Poll: Shota Imanaga’s Contract Option

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After being largely overshadowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he was posted for MLB clubs during the 2023-24 offseason, southpaw Shota Imanaga landed with the Cubs on a deal that has worked out well for Chicago so far. Imanaga was an All-Star and the fifth-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting during his first season, and this year he’s chipped in a strong 3.21 ERA across his 22 starts. Chicago is squarely focused on October at the moment, with their first postseason berth since 2020 all but clinched. Once the postseason comes to an end and the offseason jumps to front of mind, however, the Cubs will face a significant decision regarding Imanaga because of the unusual nature of his contract.

Nominally, the contract is a four-year deal worth that guarantees the southpaw $53MM. That’s not quite how the contract actually works in practice. After the 2025 season, the Cubs face a decision on whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option that covers the 2026-28 seasons. If Chicago declines, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for 2026. If that player option is executed, then there’s another fork in the road ahead. After 2026, the Cubs would have to decide on a two-year, $42MM club option for 2027-28. If they decline that, Imanaga can pick up a $15MM player option for 2027.

All of that is to say that the Cubs are facing a significant decision this offseason. If they don’t exercise their three-year option on Imanaga’s services, he’s all but certain to decline that player option and return to free agency. One-year rolls of the dice on older players like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton last offseason cost $15MM, so it’s all but guaranteed that Imanaga could do better than that if he were to test free agency. The question then becomes if Chicago wants to keep Imanaga in the fold for the next three seasons for that aforementioned $57MM figure.

On the surface, that might appear to be an obvious choice. Imanaga is an All-Star with a career 3.04 ERA in the majors and is a big part of the Cubs’ success this year. A look at Imanaga’s underlying numbers paints a slightly less certain picture, and that’s especially true for this season. A hamstring injury cost Imanaga nearly two months, so he is not qualified for the ERA title. That said, among 92 starters with at least 120 innings, the lefty’s 4.55 FIP is tied with teammate Colin Rea for 65th. His 4.57 xFIP ranks 73rd, and 4.43 SIERA ranks 61st.

With Imanaga ranking in the bottom third of the league among starters this year by so many metrics, it’s worth at least looking under the hood to see what’s causing that downturn in peripherals. Only 15 starters in baseball (again, min. 120 innings) have a higher opponents’ barrel rate than Imanaga, and that’s left him very susceptible to the long ball. Just 14 starters in that group have allowed more home runs, despite Imanaga’s relatively small volume of innings. His ERA would be much higher without the fourth-highest strand rate in that set of starters.

Imanaga also has a .209 BABIP that’s the lowest among that same group by nearly 20 points and 55 points lower than his own figure last season. He’s benefited from some pretty significant luck when it comes to batted balls and sequencing. Imanaga’s four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper have all lost a tick of velocity relative to last year. He now sits just 90.8 mph on average with the heater, and while velocity isn’t necessarily a requirement to find success in the majors, the decrease is somewhat concerning when looking at his 20.2% strikeout rate — down from 25.1% last season.

Are those red flags concerning enough that the Cubs should really consider letting him walk? While much of Imanaga’s success at beating his peripherals this year can be chalked up to good fortune, consideration must also be made for Chicago’s excellent defense. The Cubs figure to have both Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and Dansby Swanson at shortstop well past the end of the 2028 season, and with elite defensive talents working behind Imanaga it’s feasible that he could continue beating those peripheral numbers.

Another consideration is the possibility that Imanaga’s underlying numbers could improve next season with a normal start to the season. Between the Cubs’ trip to Japan for a two-game set against the Dodgers and the lefty’s early hamstring ailment, Imanaga had an unusual start to 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked back up to 23.1% clip since since the All-Star break, and he actually punched out 26.2% of his opponents in August, so maybe that trend line could create some optimism.

Regardless of whether more strikeouts and stronger peripherals can be expected for Imanaga, there’s an argument that three years and $57MM is a solid value for even a middle-of-the-road starter on the current market. Talented arms with All-Star track records can make a pretty penny on an annual basis, even entering their age-32 seasons, as Imanaga will be next year.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Sonny Gray all secured $75MM over three years for contracts beginning at age 32 or later. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt landed $63MM guarantees over three-year terms heading into their age-34 seasons. The current $19MM AAV on the three years covered by that club option isn’t much larger than the $17.5MM AAV the Yankees paid a 33-year-old Marcus Stroman over two years and coming off a season with lesser results.

While Justin Steele will return from UCL surgery next year and Cade Horton has emerged as a long-term rotation piece, players like Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are set to depart the Cubs rotation after 2026. Having another arm locked up for the long haul could have value for the Cubs so that they aren’t scrambling for innings going forward.

What do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should do about Imanaga’s contract option? Should they pick up that three years and $57MM for Imanaga’s age-32 through age-34 seasons, or should they bet that they can do better and give him the chance to walk? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Cubs Exercise Their Three-Year, $57MM Option On Shota Imanaga?
Yes, lock Imanaga up for 2026-28 despite his shaky peripherals. 91.28% (1,424 votes)
No, decline the option and risk him walking in free agency. 8.72% (136 votes)
Total Votes: 1,560

Poll link, in case above is not working.

Poll: Who Will Round Out The AL Playoff Field?

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While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:

Seattle Mariners (73-67)

The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense. Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.

The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.

Texas Rangers (72-69)

Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.

Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?

Kansas City Royals (71-69)

Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.

The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.

Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)

Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.

Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Team Will Make The Postseason?
Seattle Mariners 58.73% (2,190 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 14.86% (554 votes)
Texas Rangers 14.62% (545 votes)
Kansas City Royals 11.80% (440 votes)
Total Votes: 3,729

Poll: Will Anything Shake Up The NL Playoff Picture?

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The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:

The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.

While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.

Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.

That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.

As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.

What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:

Will Any Of The Division Leaders In The NL Change By The End Of The Regular Season?
No 67.73% (1,448 votes)
Yes 32.27% (690 votes)
Total Votes: 2,138
How Will The NL Wild Card Race Shake Out?
The teams currently in playoff position will hold onto their spots. 64.08% (1,577 votes)
The Giants will make the playoffs. 20.07% (494 votes)
The Reds will make the playoffs. 10.12% (249 votes)
Another team will make the playoffs. 5.73% (141 votes)
Total Votes: 2,461

Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?

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Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.

One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.

That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.

All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.

All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.

The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.

How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:

Will the Astros win the AL West?
Yes 57.81% (1,951 votes)
No 42.19% (1,424 votes)
Total Votes: 3,375
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