Baseball Blogs Weigh In: D-backs, Mariners, Braves, Tigers, Trout, Giants
This week in baseball blogs:
- Inside the ‘Zona reviews this week’s big trade between the Diamondbacks and Mariners.
- Outfield Fly Rule is bullish on the Braves’ signing of utilityman Sean Rodriguez.
- Baseball Docs names three teams that could trade for Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez.
- Now On Deck (click for links) predicts a slew of free agents’ fates.
- BP Toronto argues for and against keeping Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna in the bullpen.
- Outside Pitch MLB wouldn’t mind seeing Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen patrolling left as a member of the Giants.
- Chin Music Baseball shows that the best might still be ahead for the majors’ top player, Angels center fielder Mike Trout.
- Pinstriped Prospects interviews Yankees left-hander Stephen Tarpley.
- NYRDCAST talks with Cardinals minor league right-hander Robby Rowland.
- The 3rd Man In chats with MLB.com prospect guru Jim Callis about Tim Tebow, the 2017 draft class, the Brewers farm system and the proposed international draft.
- The Point of Pittsburgh explains that the Pirates can take valuable lessons from the Royals.
- Climbing Tal’s Hill examines what signing first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion would mean for the Astros.
- Jays From the Couch doesn’t see first baseman/DH Mike Napoli as a fit for Toronto.
- Off The Bench Baseball regards the Giants and Phillies as the most logical landing spots for free agent outfielder Michael Saunders.
- AngelsWin offers the second half of its offseason primer for the Halos.
- MLB Reports opines that the Mariners should attempt to acquire Brewers first baseman Chris Carter.
- MLB451 lists teams that might have interest in trading for Rangers infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar.
- Pirates Breakdown makes a case for Pittsburgh to bring back right-hander Edinson Volquez.
- Jays Journal breaks down several free agent first basemen/DHs who could interest Toronto.
- Call To The Pen (links here) studies what the Phillies might do with the fifth spot in both their lineup and rotation.
- Yanks Go Yard wants the Yankees to keep left fielder Brett Gardner.
- The Runner Sports profiles Athletics shortstop prospect Franklin Barreto.
- Everything Bluebirds views shortstop Troy Tulowitzki as one of the Blue Jays’ most important players entering 2017.
- That Ball’s Outta Here examines potential Rule 5 offensive targets for the Phillies.
- Think Blue Planning Committee asks where Dodgers utilityman Rob Segedin fits on next year’s roster.
- The Runner Sports suggests the Astros trade outfielder Nori Aoki in the wake of the Josh Reddick signing.
- Bronx Bomber Blogger looks into whether the Yankees should have protected left-hander Ryan Webb from the Rule 5 draft.
- Sports Talk Philly wonders why Charlie Manuel didn’t get another chance to manage after his tenure with the Phillies ended in 2013.
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Alex Guerrero Signs With Japan’s Chunichi Dragons
SATURDAY: Guerrero has officially joined the Dragons, tweets Hoornstra. His deal is worth $1.3MM and includes $700K in performance bonuses, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).
FRIDAY: Infielder/outfielder Alex Guerrero is nearing a contract with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league, according to Sanspo (link in Japanese; h/t J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group).
Last we heard from Guerrero, he was hitting the open market after being released by the Dodgers over the summer. He never caught on with another major league organization during the season, though presumably he at least would have made for an interesting minor-league signing this winter.
Instead, the Cuban now seems likely to head to Japan. He just reached thirty years of age, so he is still reasonably youthful. But the recent returns have not been promising.
Guerrero missed much of the 2016 season with a knee injury, and was dreadful during his rehab assignment. That made it an easy call for Los Angeles to cut him loose, even though that meant giving up on a player who was still under contract for 2017 (at a $5MM salary). The Dodgers will presumably be able to save a bit of that, depending on what Guerrero will receive in Japan, though most of the cash will remain on the books.
All said, the Dodgers didn’t make out very ell on their $28MM investment. While Guerrero wrecked Triple-A pitching, putting up a .323/.357/.598 slash in 266 plate appearances there, he never maintained success in the majors. There were flashes of promise, and some intriguing pop, but he ultimately posted a .224/.251/.414 slash in 243 trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.
That slugging potential surely would’ve warranted more of an opportunity if it weren’t for the fact that Guerrero never seemed to fit in defensively. Billed as a middle infielder upon his signing, Guerrero played third base and left field during his brief time in the majors, though presumably he could again at least be an option at second.
East Notes: Yankees, Rodriguez, Rays
The Yankees are in the closing stages of Hal Steinbrenner’s rebuilding plan, and they should not deviate from it now, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. That means they must give young players the opportunities they need, both in the minors and in the big leagues. Sherman cites the example of Aaron Judge, a flawed but interesting player who might need extensive development time in the Majors before he hits his ceiling. The Yankees have a number of big-league players, like Greg Bird, Luis Severino and Luis Cessa, who will also require patience to develop, along with a very talented group of minor leaguers. Sherman notes that teams like the Cubs and Red Sox made their aggressive pushes only when it was clear they had a core of young talent that was ready to help. The Yankees should also be looking to accumulate financial flexibility, so that, in a couple years, when they’re a bit older and players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson and Shohei Otani are available as free agents, the Yankees will be in the best possible position to add them to their own strong core. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- Sean Rodriguez‘s big step forward last year was propelled by changes he made to his plate discipline against righties and to his launch angles, Eno Sarris of FanGraphs writes. Even if he doesn’t retain all of his 2016 improvement next season, though, he’s a good match for the Braves, Sarris opines. Rodriguez’s abilities to hit lefties and play several positions give the Braves platoon options at second base (with Jace Peterson) and the outfield (with Nick Markakis). Also, the relatively cheap $11.5 million guarantee limits the Braves’ downside if Rodriguez fails to live up to his surprising 2016 performance.
- The Rays haven’t yet made any significant moves this offseason, and some of the deals made by other teams might have thwarted them to a degree, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggests. Jason Castro and Brett Cecil stood out as potential fits for the Rays, but other teams signed them at relatively high costs. GM Erik Neander, though, says the opportunities available later in the offseason might turn out to be better for the Rays. “Early offseason signings are typically the result of a very competitive market for those players,” says Neander. “Sometimes it’s difficult to contend with that, but not always. Our job is to be prepared, try to do our evaluations correctly, wait for the right opportunity to arise and be in position to strike when it does.”
NL Notes: Cardinals, Blevins, Mets, Diamondbacks
The Cardinals are on the lookout for center field help, and while free agents Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond could be possibilities, the team could also turn to less obvious solutions, ESPN’s Mark Saxon writes. One of those is Carlos Gomez, who excelled down the stretch with the Rangers, and could be a riskier, but perhaps also more upside-laden, alternative to someone like Fowler. Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna and Jarrod Dyson could also be possibilities via the trade market, Saxon suggests. Here’s more from the National League.
- The Mets have spoken to Jerry Blevins about a return, but the lefty is likely to find a free agent deal beyond the team’s price range, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News writes. Ackert also feels that catcher Rene Rivera and utilityman Kelly Johnson probably won’t be back with the Mets next season — Rivera’s projected $2.2MM arbitration salary is pricey for a backup catcher, while Johnson is “not a priority,” though New York could see if Johnson is available on a low-cost one-year deal. Ackert also covers other Mets offseason topics as part of the mailbag piece.
- The Diamondbacks have hired former Cardinals international crosschecker Cesar Geronimo Jr. to serve as their new Latin American scouting director, writes Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Geronimo, the son of former Astros, Reds and Royals outfielder Cesar Geronimo, had success with St. Louis after becoming international crosschecker early in 2012, as the Cardinals signed good prospects like Alex Reyes, outfielder Magneuris Sierra, shortstop Edmundo Sosa, and righties Sandy Alcantara and Junior Fernandez. The hire is a significant one for the Diamondbacks’ new front office — beginning July 2, the team figures to be free of international bonus penalties for the first time since their seemingly poor decision to sign Yoan Lopez for $8.26MM in the 2014-15 signing period. Depending on the terms of the next CBA, the Diamondbacks could also have a large pool to work with after winning just 69 games in 2016.
Yankees’ Cashman On CBA, Gleyber Torres
GM Brian Cashman says the Yankees anxiously await the next collective bargaining agreement, and says that previous CBAs have “crippled” them, writes George A. King III of the New York Post.
“The previous CBAs have really hindered us, so I think the next one is something we’re clearly going to be interested in on how it will impact us over the entire course of the term of the contract,” Cashman says. “In the short term, I don’t think it will affect how we do business in 2017. The last few have impacted us exactly as they were expected to and why it was done the way it was. Lot of teams benefited significantly.”
Cashman is referring to the Yankees’ uncharacteristically quiet approach to free agency last season (when they didn’t sign a single big-league free agent), as well as “a lot of the international markets I’ve been taken out of,” presumably including the Yankees’ restrictions on international bonus spending for 2015 and 2016 after their spending spree in 2014. This winter, the Yankees are expected to spend more heavily on the free agent market than they have in the recent past.
Cashman adds that he is excited about top prospect Gleyber Torres, who the Yankees acquired when they sent Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs and who recently won the MVP of the Arizona Fall League at the tender age of 19.
“When I was out there for the GM meetings, I went to see him play and the buzz among all the baseball people, the scouts and front office execs alike was ‘this is the best player in the league,'” Cashman says. “And he was the youngest player in the league, so that’s pretty exciting to hear.”
In the 2016 regular season, Torres batted .254/.341/.385 for Class A+ Tampa. Despite his outstanding .403/.513/.645 showing in Arizona, Cashman says Torres will start the 2017 season with Double-A Trenton. MLB.com currently rates him the Yankees’ second-best prospect, behind Clint Frazier.
Poll: Which Team Won The Jean Segura / Taijuan Walker Trade?
On Wednesday, the Diamondbacks and Mariners pulled off a big five-player deal involving shortstop Jean Segura and starting pitcher Taijuan Walker. We already reviewed the trade here and here, and collected a pair of reactions to the deal here. This time, though, we want to know what you think. Based on what we know right now, which team won the trade?
The case for the Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks received four years of control for Walker and five for Ketel Marte, a young shortstop who struggled last season but held his own in the big leagues in 2015 as a 21-year-old. Segura, in contrast, only has two years of control remaining (although the other two players they gave up, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis, both have six).
Segura batted .319/.368/.499 in a spectacular 2016 campaign, but struggled to stay above replacement level in either of the two previous seasons, and had a .353 batting average on balls in play in 2016 that was out of step with his career norms. At least so far, 2016 looks like Segura’s career year, and the Diamondbacks’ decision to deal him looks like selling high. The Diamondbacks didn’t look good enough to make the playoffs in 2017, so they did well to get younger and acquire more years of team control in exchange for a player who likely wouldn’t have been with them by 2019 anyway.
Walker once rated as one of baseball’s best prospects, and while he hasn’t lived up to that billing so far, he’s still just 24, and his 2016 numbers (4.22 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 93.9-MPH average fastball velocity) suggest he still has upside, meaning the Diamondbacks might be buying low on a starter who might still have front-of-the-rotation potential. That sort of player is hard to find, and it’s even harder than usual this year given the weak free agent market for pitching. If Walker can improve, or if Marte can reemerge as a capable regular, the Diamondbacks will likely end up very happy with their end of the deal.
The case for the Mariners: If Segura can maintain anything resembling his 2016 level of production, he and Robinson Cano could give Seattle one of baseball’s most productive middle infields over the next two seasons. Segura’s 20 home runs, .319 average and 33 stolen bases last season were all outstanding, leading to an excellent 5.0 fWAR. Numbers like those would give the Mariners a big jump on the AL West in a season in which they hope to contend.
Also, the righty-hitting Haniger could help the Mariners’ outfield immediately — the 25-year-old struggled somewhat in 2016 in his first chance against big-league pitching, but he dominated Triple-A and next year could serve as an effective complement to lefties Seth Smith and Ben Gamel in the corners. And while third piece Curtis didn’t pitch well in the Majors in 2016 and doesn’t profile as a future closer, his strong performances in the minors suggest he could eventually become a good left-handed relief option.
The Mariners clearly gave up two interesting young players, but ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider only) argues that Walker’s delivery changes, his lesser command and the heavy reliance on his fastball make him a less inspiring talent than he was as a prospect. As for Marte, his future in the big leagues is far from assured after a season in which he played poor defense and struck out more than four times as much as he walked.
So what do you think? Who fared better in this deal, the Diamondbacks or the Mariners?
5 Key Stories: 11/19/16 – 11/25/16
Here’s a look at the biggest stories from the past week here at MLBTR.
Diamondbacks acquire Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis. Two West division teams pulled off a big deal Wednesday night when the Mariners shipped young pitcher Taijuan Walker and shortstop Ketel Marte to the desert for a package centered around middle infielder Jean Segura. Here’s what GMs Mike Hazen and Jerry Dipoto had to say about the deal, and here are a few reactions to the trade.
Twins to sign Jason Castro. The Twins landed former Astros backstop Jason Castro Tuesday on a three-year, $24.5MM deal in the first significant move of the new Minnesota front office headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. The contract leaves Wilson Ramos, Matt Wieters and Nick Hundley as the top catchers available on the free agent market.
Braves to sign Sean Rodriguez. On Thanksgiving Day, the Braves reached agreement with the former Pirates utilityman on a two-year, $11.5MM contract. He’ll join R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon on the list of veterans added to help the Braves as they move into their new stadium.
Lockout a possibility as CBA talks continue. Owners could consider a player lockout if the two sides are unable to agree to a new collective bargaining agreement by next Thursday, Ken Rosenthal reported. Such a move might not lead to missed games, but it could have a significant effect on the pace of player signings this offseason. ESPN’s Jayson Stark later reported, though, that there was still optimism a deal could be reached.
Blue Jays offered about $80MM to Edwin Encarnacion. The Blue Jays made a significant offer to keep Edwin Encarnacion before ultimately striking a deal with Kendrys Morales. Despite adding Morales, the Jays remain interested in re-signing Encarnacion, with Encarnacion playing first base and Morales at DH. (Also this week, Mark Polishuk looked at Encarnacion’s free agent case in our Free Agent Profile series.)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Central Notes: Staumont, Rodriguez, Dozier
In college, Royals prospect Josh Staumont was mostly just playing baseball for his scholarship, Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes. Suddenly, though, Staumont started throwing with electrifying velocity, and he soon became the Royals’ 2015 second-round pick — and, later, one of their better prospects. “It was a way for me to get into the school and get a couple thousand dollars off the tuition. And that was literally all it came down to. I could play a sport that I loved and get an education,” he says. “Of course, as soon as I started throwing harder, that all changed.” During his first scrimmage at Azusa Pacific University, Staumont suddenly started generating 99-MPH radar gun readings that he initially thought were mistakes. His work with the Royals has included plenty more blistering fastballs, although he still has work to do on his control — last season between Class A+ Wilmington and Double-A Northwest Arkansas, he had a 4.23 ERA and an excellent 12.2 K/9, but with a very high 7.6 BB/9. Those numbers might suggest potential as a future reliever, but the Royals aren’t yet giving up on him as a possible rotation option. “It’s easy to look at him in the pen, only because he throws hard,” says assistant GM J.J. Picollo. “But in this climate, in this industry, it’s all about starting pitching.” Here’s more from the Central divisions.
- The Pirates are likely to replace Sean Rodriguez internally after the utilityman’s departure to the Braves, Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Rodriguez hit .270/.349/.510 in 2016, and the Bucs will undoubtedly miss him. But they do have Adam Frazier, who posted a .356 OBP while playing second, third and all three outfield positions in an impressive rookie season last year. Also, middle infielder and former top prospect Alen Hanson is out of options and could make the big club as a backup at shortstop and second base.
- The Twins are telling potential trade partners they aren’t looking to deal Brian Dozier unless they get an excellent return, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets. Whatever their new front office’s actual intentions, it’s not surprising they would take that position — Dozier hit 42 homers last year and is signed to a reasonable deal through 2018, so his trade value should be quite high, and they could certainly wait to trade him if they wanted to. The Dodgers have reportedly had interest in Dozier recently, although a trade does not appear imminent between the two teams.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/25/16
The latest minor moves from around the game, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…
- First baseman Balbino Fuenmayor has signed on with the Braves on a minor league deal, his agents at True Gravity tweeted. The former Blue Jays and Royals farmhand, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, didn’t quite repeat his impressive 2015 season, in which he hit a robust .358/.384/.589 with 17 home runs over 378 plate appearances in the upper minors. Taking his first full-season crack at Triple-A, Fuenmayor managed a much more pedestrian .291/.325/.405 output with just a half-dozen dingers in 381 trips to the plate. He continued to post rather drastic platoon splits, and this time around posted a middling .626 OPS against righties. Fuenmayor is still looking for his first chance at major league action.
- The Mariners have signed catcher Steven Baron to a new minor league contract, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports. Baron, 25, is back in the fold after the M’s designated him for assignment and released him earlier this month. He played 67 of his 68 games in 2016 at Double-A Jackson. Baron has a .234/.291/.341 slash line over 2179 career minor league plate appearances since Seattle took him 33rd overall in the 2009 draft, and the catcher also played in four big league games in 2015.
Poll: Early Free Agent Starting Pitching Contracts
This year’s free agent market has already provided a steady trickle of deals, with many involving short-term arrangements for starting pitching. Bigger contracts are yet to come, but those already handed out have committed fairly large sums, albeit on limited terms.
With many of these deals landing in a similar range, it’s interesting to compare. Here are the rotation pieces, who happen all to be right-handers, who have received major league pacts thus far (from smallest to largest in terms of total dollars):
Jesse Chavez, Angels, $5.75MM over one year (plus incentives): Chavez worked exclusively in a relief capacity last year, but he started quite a bit in 2014 and 2015 and Los Angeles views him as a part of their rotation for 2017. For a team in need of sturdy innings, the 33-year-old brings the promise of durability and palatable results at a reasonable price.
R.A. Dickey, Braves, $8MM over one year (plus 2018 club option): A similar calculus was at play with Dickey, whose knuckleball makes him a solid bet to eat up a lot of frames despite the fact that he’s already 42 years old. Though he’ll cost a bit more than Chavez, Dickey also arguably comes with greater upside, and the organization was able to take advantage of Atlanta’s proximity to the righty’s Nashville home to land him at a budget-friendly amount.
Andrew Cashner, Rangers, $10MM over one year: There’s much more variability, perhaps, baked into the price paid for Cashner, who only just turned 30 and still has a power arsenal at his disposal. The results haven’t been there in either of the last two years, and health questions persist, but Cashner is only two years removed from a high-quality campaign in which he looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm.
Bartolo Colon, Braves, $12.5MM over one year: Atlanta doubled down on aging starters, following up the Dickey signing with the even-older Colon, who’ll turn 44 before the season begins. If he was 15 years younger, Colon’s four-year platform — over which he averaged 195 frames of 3.59 ERA pitching — might well have made him the biggest earner on this winter’s market. Instead, it garnered him a strong payday but only a single-season commitment.
Charlie Morton, Astros, $14MM over two years: The only starter to score a multi-year promise, Morton only made four starts in 2016 — though that was due to a hamstring injury, not a more worrisome arm problem. He did show a fair bit of promise early last year (including a velocity bump), and carries a 3.96 ERA with strong groundball results (58.2%) over his last five campaigns, but Morton has only twice topped 25 starts and 150 innings in a single season.
Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies, $17.2MM over one year (accepted qualifying offer): Most had Hellickson penciled in to reject the QO and pursue a rather sizable, reasonably lengthy contract on the open market. After all, he’s yet to turn 30 and just turned in 189 frames of 3.71 ERA pitching. Instead, he opted for the sure thing, and the Phillies will pay a rather hefty single-season rate a pitcher who had endured his fair share of struggles prior to his quality 2016 season.
All of the teams listed above were looking to fill a rotation spot without mucking up their future balance sheets, and sought some blend of upside and dependability. So, the question for the MLBTR readership is a straightforward one: which of these contracts provides the best value to the signing organization?
Best Early Free Agent Rotation Deal?
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Bartolo Colon Signs With Braves 33% (4,164)
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Andrew Cashner Signs With Rangers 17% (2,177)
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Jeremy Hellickson Takes Phillies Qualifying Offer 17% (2,151)
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R.A. Dickey Signs With Braves 15% (1,934)
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Charlie Morton Signs With Astros 10% (1,193)
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Jesse Chavez Signs With Angels 7% (890)
Total votes: 12,509