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Archives for January 2023

Phillies, Rhys Hoskins Avoid Arbitration

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The Phillies and first baseman Rhys Hoskins have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12MM contract for 2023, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.

Hoskins, 30 in March, has spent his entire career with the Phillies so far, having been drafted by them in 2014. He is now on the cusp of free agency, however, as this is his final season of club control. During 2023, he will cross six years of service time and qualify for the open market at season’s end.

Since his debut in 2017, he’s established himself as a reliably above-average hitter. He’s hit at least 27 home runs in each season, outside of 10 in the shortened 2020 campaign and 18 in his 50-game debut in 2017. Apart from that debut, his wRC+ has been between 112 and 139 in each season. He has 148 career homers and a batting line of .242/.353/.492 for a wRC+ of 125. He isn’t considered to be an especially strong defender or baserunner, which was kept his wins above replacement from ever topping 2.4, per FanGraphs, but he’s also never been below 2.0 in a full campaign thanks to his reliable offense.

That potent bat pushed his salary up to $4.8MM in 2021, his first time qualifying for arbitration. He got to $7.7MM last year and now $12MM this year, just below the $12.6MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. The Phillies finally cracked the postseason last year, breaking a decade-long drought and going all the way to the World Series. They have been aggressive in reloading to try to get back there in 2023, with Hoskins likely to be a key part of that in his final season before he’s set to reach the open market. He and the club could always reach an extension that keeps him in Philly beyond the upcoming campaign, but they also have other first base/designated hitter types, such as Darick Hall, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.

Cardinals, Jordan Montgomery Avoid Arbitration

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The Cardinals and left-hander Jordan Montgomery have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10MM salary, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.

Montgomery, 30, was drafted by the Yankees and established himself as a solid major league starter with that club. He debuted in 2017 with 29 starts, a 3.88 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 40.7% ground ball rate. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery and the pandemic kept him from pitching logging many innings over the 2018-2020 period and he struggled a bit when he was on the mound.

He got back on track in 2021 with 30 starts and a 3.83 ERA, while his strikeout and grounder rates ticked up a bit compared to his 2017 season. He had another solid campaign in 2022, which included a midseason trade to the Cards. He finished with a 3.48 ERA, only striking out 21.8% of batters faced but cutting his walk rate to 5% and bumping his grounder rate to 47.6%.

Montgomery first qualified for arbitration for the 2021 season, earning a $2.13MM salary followed by $6MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Montgomery for a $10.1MM salary, with the southpaw now getting within a hair of that in his last season before he’s slated to become a free agent. Montgomery is one of four starters in the St. Louis rotation set to hit the open market after this season, with Jack Flaherty also in his final arbitration year while Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas are each in the final seasons of their respective contracts.

Cubs Designate Mark Leiter Jr. For Assignment

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The Cubs announced Friday that right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. has been designated for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose one-year contract is now official.

Leiter, 32 in March, was drafted by the Phillies in 2013 and made his way up to the majors by 2017. He got into 47 games over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, mostly with Philly but also a brief stint with the Blue Jays after a waiver claim. He posted a 5.53 ERA over that two-year stretch with a subpar 20.5% strikeout rate but a strong 48.2% ground ball rate.

He was outrighted off the Jays’ roster and then required Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2019, which put him on the shelf for a while. He pitched well in the minor leagues of the Tigers’ system in 2021 but didn’t get called up to the big leagues. A minor league deal with the Cubs allowed him to return to the majors last season. He spent the year being shuttled to Triple-A and back, posting a solid 3.99 ERA over 67 2/3 innings with the Cubs, striking out 25.9% of batters faced, walking 8.9% of them and getting grounders on 48.9% of balls in play.

Despite those solid results last year, there are reasons the Cubs are moving on. Leiter’s earned runs were likely kept down somewhat by a .251 batting average on balls in play, almost 40 points below league average. He’s also now out of options, giving him less value from a roster maneuverability perspective. However, if some club is intrigued enough to give Leiter a roster spot, he’ll come with some cheap control since he has just over two years of MLB service time.

The Opener: Arbitration Deadline, International Free Agency, Cubs

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With the first significant date on the 2023 MLB calendar upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Today is the deadline for submitting arbitration figures.

Today is the deadline day for both clubs and players to submit figures to MLB for salary arbitration. While players and their clubs can still avoid arbitration after today, many teams have adopted a “file-and-trial” policy in recent years, meaning they do not negotiate further on one-year arb level deals after today’s deadline. It’s likely there will be heaps of deals agreed to throughout the day today, and while these deals likely won’t wildly change any club’s payroll situation, the cost certainty provided could make it easier for teams to work out deals on the trade market going forward. As has been the case for more than a decade, MLBTR published Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections earlier this offseason.

2. International Free Agency To Open

The 2023 signing period for international free agency is set to begin on Sunday, January 15th. This period, which has been moved to January in recent seasons after years of July signing periods, gives all 30 clubs the opportunity to inject their farm systems with fresh talent. While these players are all almost assuredly several years away from impacting the major leagues, many of the biggest superstars of today’s game were acquired by their clubs through the IFA signing process. Most top prospects in a given IFA class likely unofficially made handshake agreements with clubs long before the official opening of their IFA signing period, so most of these top prospects already have publicly available expected landing spots. MLB and the MLBPA tried to come to an agreement on an international draft this summer following CBA negotiations but were unable to do so, leaving the current system in place for the foreseeable future.

3. Cubs Convention is returning this weekend.

Cubs Convention starts tonight, marking its return after two years of pandemic- and lockout-related absence. Perhaps most interestingly, the Ricketts family (who own the team) is set to make an appearance and interact with fans tomorrow. Tom Ricketts drew plenty of flak for canceling his annual Cubs Convention Q&A with fans in 2019 amid the what was then the team’s quietest offseason in years. He was booed in 2020 when citing the luxury tax as a reason for the team’s lack of spending. Since then, Cubs fans have seen the departure of their entire 2016 World Series core (aside from Kyle Hendricks), and the team has suffered back-to-back losing seasons. The signing of Dansby Swanson could perhaps bring about some good will this time around, but he’ll surely still face some tough questions and perhaps produce some notable quotes on the team’s outlook moving forward.

Marlins, Twins Have Discussed Trade Possibilities Involving Pablo Lopez, Max Kepler

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The Marlins and Twins have discussed trade scenarios involving Miami starter Pablo López, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman reports that Minnesota outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Luis Arraez were among the names who’d come up in those discussions but adds the Twins aren’t interested in parting with Arraez.

Minnesota’s interest in López isn’t a new development. Ted Schwerzler of Twins Daily first reported in mid-December the Twins were in touch with the Fish about López. Obviously, nothing has yet come together and Heyman’s report doesn’t suggest there’s anything particularly close between the two clubs.

López, 27 in March, has been a frequent target in trade rumors for well over a year. The right-hander has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

That kind of consistent mid-rotation production has piqued the interest of a number of contenders but Miami has held onto López so far. That’s in spite of a reported willingness to deal from their stable of quality starting pitchers to address a lackluster lineup. While the Venezuelan-born righty has been the most frequently mentioned trade candidate in the Miami rotation, the Fish are reportedly open to offers on any of Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo as well.

That latter trio of pitchers all come with longer windows of club control and high-octane stuff. None has the consistent multi-year track record López has established, though, making him an ideal fit for a team firmly in win-now mode and looking to upgrade its starting five. López is in his second season of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $5.6MM salary next season; he’ll earn a raise on that during his final trip through the process before reaching free agency for the first time after 2024.

The Twins don’t strictly need a starter, though there’s enough uncertainty in their group they could accommodate another acquisition. That’s particularly true for a pitcher of López’s caliber, as he’d arguably step in as their best arm on staff. Minnesota is set to open the 2023 season with a top five of Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda. That group was hit hard by injuries last year, with Ryan leading the way at 147 innings. Mahle, Gray and Ober each had multiple injured list stints, including a two and a half month absence for Ober thanks to a groin strain. Maeda missed the whole season recovering from September 2021 Tommy John surgery.

There’s a decent amount of upside. Young arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland and Josh Winder have potential as depth options and Chris Paddack could return in the season’s second half from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Yet it’s equally easy to see the risk associated with the group considering their collective injury histories. Bringing in another quality starter would be a nice boost to a Minnesota club looking to build off their surprising new agreement with Carlos Correa and could push one or two of the touted young arms into a bullpen that seems the roster’s biggest question mark.

Minnesota has plenty of high-level outfield depth from which they could deal to bolster the pitching. They’re particularly deep in left-handed hitters, with Kepler, Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner all factoring into the mix around star center fielder Byron Buxton. Kepler is the only member of the group who isn’t still in his pre-arbitration seasons. That has made him the most frequently speculated upon trade candidate but also arguably the least desirable target of the group for other clubs.

Like López, Kepler comes with two remaining seasons of club control. He’ll make $8.5MM this year and is guaranteed at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2024. He turns 30 in February and is headed into his ninth big league season.

Kepler looked to have broken out in 2019, when he connected on 36 home runs and posted a .252/.336/.519 line through 596 trips to the plate. He’s always had quality contact skills and plate discipline, and the seeming power spike elevated his offensive profile enough he secured some down-ballot MVP votes that year. In retrospect, that season seems an anomaly at least partially attributable to the extremely lively ball the league used. Kepler has been fine but unspectacular in the three years since then, hitting .220/.314/.392 in over 1100 plate appearances.

That includes a .227/.318/.348 line with just nine homers last season. His walk and strikeout rates remained excellent but he posted the worst power numbers of his career. Kepler also consistently runs very low batting averages on balls in play. That’s in part thanks to a pull-happy, grounder-heavy offensive profile that has made him susceptible to overshifts. The forthcoming limitations on defensive positioning could lead to a few more base knocks but isn’t likely to help him rediscover his power stroke.

Even with middling offense, Kepler is a valuable player. He’s an elite defensive right fielder who has also held his own in more than 1100 career innings in center field. Buxton, arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder when healthy, relegates Kepler to the corner in Minnesota. Yet he’d be a viable candidate for everyday center field work on another club. That’s the case for Miami, where younger players like JJ Bleday, Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez rotated through center field work in 2022. Each of them is better suited for a corner and has a limited offensive track record at the MLB level. Miami hasn’t addressed center field this winter, currently leaving that trio as an imperfect solution to take up-the-middle reps alongside Avisaíl García and perhaps Jorge Soler in the corners.

Kepler is a sensible trade target for the Marlins, particularly given their reported preference for higher-contact bats. It’s clear, however, that he alone wouldn’t convince general manager Kim Ng and her staff to part with López. An upper mid-rotation starter is going to hold more appeal than an outfielder coming off three roughly average offensive seasons, even one as defensively gifted as Kepler. That’s true even before considering López is a few years younger and will make a bit less over the next two seasons than Kepler will. Including Kepler in a deal involving López could make sense for both sides, but the Twins would have to offer additional young talent to convince Miami to pull the trigger.

Arraez, however, is apparently a bridge too far for Minnesota’s liking. The reigning AL batting champion would certainly fit Miami’s desire for a high-contact hitter and he’s coming off a .316/.375/.420 line over 603 trips to the plate. He’s controllable for three more seasons and projected for a $5MM arbitration salary. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported last month the Twins had given some consideration to making Arraez available in a deal that brought back a “top-tier starting pitcher” who was controllable beyond next season.

One could argue whether López fits that description, but it doesn’t seem the Twins feel he’s at the level that’d inspire them to part with one of their best hitters. Arraez is presently penciled in as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, though he’ll also work as a designated hitter and spell Jorge Polanco and José Miranda at second and third base, respectively.

Zaidi: Giants Unlikely To Add Catcher On Major League Deal

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters Thursday afternoon. Among the topics discussed was the team’s catching situation, which doesn’t seem to be a top priority for the front office.

San Francisco designated backup Austin Wynns for assignment last week, leaving them with just Joey Bart and Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol as catchers on the 40-man roster. Despite that rather thin depth chart, Zaidi indicated the club is not likely to add a catcher on a major league free agent deal (relayed by Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). The Giants’ baseball operations leader implied that Wynns has already gone unclaimed on waivers, though he’ll have the right to elect minor league free agency as a player who has previously been outrighted in his career.

Zaidi indicated the team was hopeful of bringing Wynns back to the organization on a minor league pact, though the 32-year-old will have the chance to explore other opportunities. Even if Wynns returns, San Francisco could bring in another non-roster invitee to major league camp.

It seems they’re content heading into exhibition play with just Bart and Sabol on the 40-man roster. That’d suggest the 26-year-old Bart has a firm hold on the #1 job after hitting .215/.296/.364 through 291 plate appearances last season. The former second overall pick connected on 11 home runs but punched out in nearly 39% of his trips to the dish.

That’s also a strong vote of confidence for Sabol, who has no big league experience. The 25-year-old had spent four years in the Pirates’ system after being selected in the 7th round of the 2019 draft. The left-handed hitter split last year between Pittsburgh’s top two affiliates, putting up an impressive .284/.363/.497 line across 513 combined plate appearances. That wasn’t enough for the Bucs to add him to their 40-man roster despite a very thin catching situation of their own. It obviously impressed San Francisco brass, though, as the Giants orchestrated a trade with the Reds to acquire Sabol’s Rule 5 rights.

Cincinnati, who had the fourth pick in the Rule 5 draft, selected Sabol. They immediately dealt him to the Giants, who sent back minor league pitcher Jake Wong. San Francisco has to keep the USC product on their major league roster or injured list all season or place him on waivers and offer him back to Pittsburgh if he goes unclaimed. Wynns’ designation and a lack of urgency to add another big league catcher suggests the front office is confident in Sabol’s ability to hold his own at the big league level.

There are a few remaining free agent catchers who could sign minor league deals. Kevin Plawecki, Robinson Chirinos, Jorge Alfaro, Tres Barrera and Luis Torrens are candidates for a non-roster pact. Reports this week tied San Francisco to Gary Sánchez, but that seems unlikely unless the Giants pivot to make a big league commitment. As the top remaining free agent backstop, Sánchez figures to secure a guaranteed deal somewhere.

Lee Tinsley Passes Away

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Former MLB outfielder and coach Lee Tinsley has passed away. He was 53 years old.

A native of Shelbyville, Kentucky, Tinsley was selected by the A’s with the 11th overall pick in the 1987 draft. He played three-plus seasons in the Oakland farm system before being traded to the Indians for infielder Brook Jacoby. The switch-hitting outfielder landed with the Mariners the next year via waivers, and he broke into the majors with 11 games for Seattle during the 1993 season.

The following spring, the Mariners traded Tinsley to the Red Sox. He played two seasons in Boston, tallying a career-high 391 plate appearances with a .284/.359/.402 line in 1995. Boston dealt him to the Phillies for minor league pitcher Scott Bakkum midway through the ’96 season, and Philadelphia sold his contract back to Seattle for the 1997 campaign. Tinsley closed out his MLB career with 49 games for the Mariners. He’d play in independent ball, Mexico and at the Triple-A level for the next three years before retiring as a player after the 2000 season.

Tinsley appeared in 361 big league games over a five-year career, suiting up for three different clubs. He hit .241/.313/.335 with 13 home runs, 41 stolen bases and 79 runs driven in.

After his playing career concluded, he jumped into the coaching ranks. He spent time working in the Diamondbacks’ and Angels’ systems before getting promoted to the big league staff in Arizona in 2006. Tinsley logged three years as Arizona’s first base coach and three more as Seattle’s first base coach. He spent some time in the Cubs organization before being named assistant hitting coach of the Reds, a role he held from 2014-15.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Tinsley’s family, friends, loved ones, former teammates and players with whom he crossed paths during his coaching career.

Padres, Alfonso Rivas Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Padres are signing first baseman Alfonso Rivas to a minor league deal, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The La Jolla native will get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training with his hometown club.

Rivas, 26, hit free agency last week after being released by the Cubs. That ended a three-year tenure in the organization that began when Rivas was acquired from the A’s for Tony Kemp. He didn’t play in 2020 thanks to the canceled minor league season but spent the past two seasons at the upper levels. Rivas hit .284/.405/.411 in 58 games with Triple-A Iowa in 2021, earning his first big league call in the process. He made a strong impression, posting a .318/.388/.409 mark across 18 contests before suffering a season-ending injury to his right middle finger.

The left-handed hitter returned in 2022 and split the season between Chicago and Iowa. He again hit well against minor league arms, posting a .298/.368/.415 line over 26 games. His production at the MLB level was more middling. Over 287 plate appearances, Rivas put up a .235/.322/.307 mark. He connected on only three home runs and 10 extra-base hits overall.

To his credit, Rivas drew walks in a quality 10.1% of his trips to the dish. He paired that with an ugly 30.3% strikeout rate though. Combined with his lack of power, his overall offensive production checked in 17 percentage points below league average by measure of wRC+. That’s not the typical output expected from a player who’s limited to first base or the corner outfield. Rivas was credited by prospect evaluators as a potential plus gloveman at first base, and Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as six runs better than average over 674 1/3 innings at the position last year.

Even with a quality glove, Rivas will need to perform better at the plate than he did last season to hold a roster spot. He’s an accomplished, high-OBP minor league hitter, owner of a .289/.391/.411 line in parts of four seasons. That makes him an interesting upper level depth pickup. Rivas still has two option years remaining as well. If he cracks San Diego’s 40-man roster at any point, they can keep him at Triple-A El Paso for the next couple seasons.

Nationals’ Sales Process Still Not Near Resolution

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The Nationals have been on the market for a good portion of the past year. The Lerner family first announced in April they were looking into sale possibilities for the franchise. Subsequent reports suggested the family was hopeful of completing the process by the early-December Winter Meetings.

That obviously did not happen, and it doesn’t seem a resolution is imminent. The Talk Nats blog reported Tuesday afternoon that negotiations were not close to the finish line. That aligns with their reporting from late November, when Talk Nats wrote the franchise’s uncertain local broadcasting situation related to the ongoing MASN dispute was keeping the Lerners from settling on an agreeable price point with the Ted Leonsis group that had emerged as the frontrunner in discussions.

TV rights remain the biggest issue in the Washington sale. As part of the relocation efforts to move the franchise from Montreal to Washington nearly two decades ago, MLB (which owned the Expos/Nationals at the time) agreed to tie its local broadcasting rights to the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. MASN is jointly owned by the Nats and Orioles, but the Orioles’ ownership share is roughly 77% while the Nats own around 23%. That agreement, a condition of the franchise’s relocation into the Orioles’ geographic territorial rights, caps the Nationals’ TV revenue by making it impermissible for them to sell broadcasting rights to a regional sports network.

Leonsis owns NBC Sports Washington and would almost certainly prefer to broadcast Nationals games on that network if he took control of the franchise. Doing so would require negotiating a way out of the MASN contract with the Orioles, though, and it’s not clear whether the Baltimore organization has any interest in doing so. MLB has gotten involved in an attempt to broker a settlement between the franchises, but there’s no indication they’ve made progress to this point.

Uncertainty about future local TV revenues is an obvious concern for a possible buyer. Against that backdrop, it’s now a real question whether the Lerner family will sell a majority stake at all. Talk Nats suggested it’s possible the Lerners pivot to selling a minority share of the franchise. Chelsea Janes and Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post echoed that sentiment this evening, writing that the Lerners now seem likelier to take on a minority partner than sell the franchise entirely. Nothing has been formally decided. Both Talk Nats and the Washington Post suggest possibilities range from no change in the ownership structure at all to a deal of a minority share or a sale of the controlling stake coming together.

Janes and Svrluga suggest a middle ground may be to sell a minority share with a path to that buyer taking over majority ownership down the line. The Dolan family took that tack with the Guardians last summer, immediately selling roughly 25-30% of the franchise to David Blitzer in a deal that reportedly gives Blitzer the option to purchase majority control six years thereafter.

It’s an ongoing saga that obviously hasn’t resolved as the Lerner family had envisioned. There are still myriad possibilities that’ll hang over the franchise for as long as this process remains up in the air. The franchise is amidst a full rebuild and ran out the worst team in the majors last season. They’ve made a few short-term free agent investments this winter, bringing in Dominic Smith, Corey Dickerson, Jeimer Candelario and retaining Erasmo Ramírez on one-year contracts worth a combined $10.25MM. Their biggest investment of the offseason was a two-year, $13MM pact for starter Trevor Williams.

Roster Resource projects the franchise’s player payroll around $104MM. That’s $31MM south of last season’s Opening Day figure. It’d be the franchise’s lowest season-opening payroll since 2012, although it’s possible GM Mike Rizzo and his staff have some more spending room to add another veteran target or two to supplement a young roster.

Looking At The Padres’ Rotation Options

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The Padres have been quite aggressive in recent years on all fronts, from signing free agents to trading for stars and extending their own players. That has shot their budget up to record heights, with Roster Resource currently estimating their payroll at $250MM. Up until a few years ago, they had only barely nudged past the $100MM mark, jumping to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Despite all that aggression, they’re going into the season with uncertainty in their rotation, both in the short-term and long-term. They should have a strong front three this year in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. That leaves two question marks at the back, since Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea reached free agency and signed elsewhere. Darvish and Snell are both slated to reach free agency after this year, opening up more holes in the future. MacKenzie Gore’s inclusion in the Juan Soto trade also weakened the future outlook. So, who do they have on hand to step up and take these jobs? Let’s take a look at the candidates.

Nick Martinez

Martinez, 32, spent four seasons in Japan and parlayed that into a four-year deal with the Padres going into 2022, a deal that allowed him to opt out after each season. Last year was a mixed bag for Martinez, as he logged 106 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. That’s solid production overall but it came in the form of a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 innings as a starter and a 2.67 mark in 54 innings as a reliever.

Martinez opted out and re-signed with the club on another deal, this time on a three-year pact. The details are unusually complex as there are plenty of incentives, as well as a dual club/player option structure. Whether he can find better results as a starter this time around remains to be seen. It’s certainly a risk for the Friars but at least it seems he comes with the floor of helping out the bullpen.

Should Martinez truly establish himself as a starter, the club will be able to keep him around. Martinez will get paid a $10MM base salary this year and the team will then have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. That affords them a bit more control over his future than his previous opt-out laden deal. However, if Martinez does not have a successful campaign and they turn down that option, he will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. That gives the Friars upside and downside potential in the pact. Those dollar figures can also reportedly change based on incentives, though the exact details aren’t known.

Seth Lugo

Lugo, 33, is a somewhat similar situation to Martinez, as he could potentially wind up in the rotation or in the bullpen. He made 23 starts in 2017-18 but only seven since, largely working as a reliever. That move was at least partially motivated by a “slight” tear that was discovered in his right ulnar collateral ligament in 2017.

Regardless, Lugo has served as an effective reliever since then, posting a 3.56 ERA over the past two years, and there’s some hope that his five-pitch mix can help him transition back into a rotation. It’s another risky move that the Padres were willing to take, giving Lugo two years and $15MM, with Lugo able to opt-out after the first. He hasn’t topped 80 innings in a season since 2018 and it’s hard to know how smooth this switch will be.

If it goes well, there won’t be any long-term upside for the club, since Lugo will make a $7.5MM salary but can opt out of the same figure for 2024. If the experiment works, he’s likely to return to free agency and find a larger guarantee. If it fails, the Padres will still be on the hook for another season.

Adrián Morejón

Morejón, 24 in February, has long been one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the league. Baseball America placed him on their top 100 list for five straight years beginning in 2017. Various injuries slowed him during his ascent to the majors and he’s yet to even pitch 70 official innings in any season of his career, majors or minors or combined.

Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 wiped out most of that season. He returned to health in 2022 but pitched in relief. The club reportedly still views him as a starter but he will likely have workload concerns this year. Between the majors and the minors last year, he logged 47 1/3 frames. He should be able to push that up now that he’s further removed from the surgery, but getting to a full starter’s workload would be a lot to ask. He has just over three years of MLB service time now, giving him the ability to provide some long-term help to the club’s rotation if he stays healthy and makes good on his prospect pedigree in 2023.

Jay Groome

Groome, 24, was a 12th overall pick of the Red Sox in 2016. He was once a highly-touted prospect but has hit various speed bumps. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 and most of his 2019, which was followed by the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He has since returned to health and posted decent results but with some of the prospect shine having worn off.

In 2022, which included a trade to the Padres in the Eric Hosmer deal, he pitched 144 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. The 3.44 ERA is nice, but his 22.8% strikeout rate is right around average and his 10.4% walk rate was on the concerning side. He’s yet to reach the majors and arguably has the greatest chance to provide future value to the club with his six seasons of control and one remaining option year.

Brent Honeywell Jr.

Honeywell, 28 in March, is also a former top prospect. A Rays draftee, he was on BA’s top 100 in five straight seasons from 2016-20. Similar to Morejón and Groome, injuries have prevented him from reaching his potential thus far. Tommy John surgery in 2018 put him on the shelf and he has dealt with various setbacks since then. He was healthy enough to toss 86 innings in 2021 between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham, with the club then dealing him to Oakland. However, more injury setbacks resulted in just 20 1/3 minor league innings for the A’s last year.

Honeywell seems to be healthy again at the moment, as he’s tossed 28 innings in the Dominican Winter League. His 0.96 ERA in that time seems to have been enough to impress the Padres, as they signed him to their 40-man roster last week. It would make for a terrific bounceback story if he were to finally put it all together, but it’s hard to bank on him after hardly pitching in the past five years. He still has less than a year of service time, giving the Padres plenty of upside if it all clicks, but Honeywell is also out of options and will have to produce in the big leagues right away to hang onto his roster spot.

Reiss Knehr/Pedro Avila/Ryan Weathers

These three are all on the 40-man roster and warrant a mention, though they are unlikely to be called upon except in an emergency. All three of them have gotten some big league time in recent seasons, getting fairly brief showings in swing roles. Weathers probably has the most upside of the trio since he’s just 23 whereas the others are going into their respective age-26 seasons. Weathers was considered a top 100 prospect going into 2021 but he has a 5.49 ERA in the big leagues so far and posted a 6.73 ERA in 123 Triple-A innings last year, getting bumped to the bullpen as the season wore on.

Wilmer Font

Font, 33 in May, is a real wild card. He was a journeyman in the majors for many years but went to Korea to play in the KBO in 2021. Over the last two years, he’s been pitching at an ace level for the SSG Landers. He made 25 starts in 2021 with a 3.46 ERA and then 28 starts last year with a 2.69 mark. In that latter season, he got strikeouts at a 23.3% rate, walking only 4.7% of batters faced and he got ground balls on 51.6% of balls in play.

Success overseas doesn’t always translate to success in the majors, but Font wouldn’t be the first pitcher to underwhelm in North America but then return after a breakout elsewhere, with Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly some of the recent examples. Font isn’t currently on the 40-man and will have to earn his way back into the mix but he will be an interesting one to watch.

Julio Teheran/Aaron Brooks

These two veterans have also been brought aboard on minor league deals. Teheran spent 2022 in Indy ball and the Mexican League, posting some decent numbers in 13 starts between various clubs. He then went to the Dominican for winter ball and has posted a 3.49 ERA through eight starts there. He had a solid run with the Braves earlier in his career but got lit up in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA and then was injured for most of 2021.

Brooks was great in the KBO in 2020 and 2021, posting a 2.79 ERA over 36 starts in that time. However, his attempted return to the majors didn’t go well. He made five relief appearances for the Cardinals with a 7.71 ERA and got outrighted to the minors. In 15 Triple-A appearances, 13 starts, his ERA was 5.56.

All told, the Padres have lots of options here but all of them have question marks. There’s a handful of faded prospects who still need to put injury concerns in the rearview mirror and another handful of veteran swingmen who still might end up better suited to the bullpen than the rotation. Musgrove-Darvish-Snell gives them a strong front three, meaning the Padres only really need a couple of these guys to step up. On the other hand, they are one injury away from someone in this group suddenly being in the #3 slot.

The Padres could always supplement their staff between now and Opening Day, but recent reporting has suggested they don’t have much more payroll space to work with. If they want to go the trade route, there are certainly options, such as the Marlins having plenty of arms available and the Brewers perhaps in a similar boat.

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