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Archives for July 2023

Red Sox Seeking Back-End Starter, Right-Handed Middle Relief

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The Red Sox blanked the A’s last night, pushing them to 51-44 and tying their season high at seven games over .500. Paired with a Yankees’ loss, Boston pulled out of the basement in the AL East and sits just a game and a half back of Houston for the American League’s final Wild Card spot.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has said a couple times recently the team’s play leading up to the August 1 deadline will impact how aggressively they pursue outside help versus entertaining offers on their veteran players. The team seems to be finding its stride with two weeks to go, putting the front office in a good position to add for a playoff push.

Rob Bradford of WEEI reported yesterday the Sox are seeking to add pitching depth. He suggests a back-of-the-rotation starter and a right-handed middle relief option are on the target list.

Each of those player types should be attainable. Veteran back-end starters change hands every deadline season. Michael Lorenzen, Carlos Carrasco, Lance Lynn and recurring Sox’s target Rich Hill are among the impending free agents who are unlikely to require a hefty acquisition cost. Oakland’s Paul Blackburn and Cleveland’s Aaron Civale are middle to back end starters with multiple seasons of remaining affordable control. They’d be costlier from a prospect perspective than the aforementioned rentals as a result.

Various injuries have left Boston with a top-heavy rotation. James Paxton has been stellar since returning from two and a half injury-wrecked seasons, working to a 3.51 ERA while striking out over 28% of opposing hitters. Brayan Bello has improved his control in his second MLB season, resulting in a 3.14 ERA over 15 starts. Kutter Crawford, a midseason entrant to the rotation who has a 4.73 ERA over 10 starts, is the only other consistent member of the current starting staff.

The Sox are without each of Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Sale recently began throwing again but is shelved into August by a shoulder blade injury. Houck suffered a facial fracture when he was hit by a comebacker in late June. He’s expected back this season but isn’t an imminent returnee. Whitlock hit the injured list two weeks ago with elbow inflammation.

With only a three-man rotation, the Sox used a bullpen game last night against Oakland. Nick Pivetta was brilliant in a bulk capacity, tossing six scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts. The 30-year-old righty is up to 35 innings of 2.31 ERA ball with an elite 38.2% strikeout rate since moving to relief in mid-May. Boston has been reluctant to move him out of a role in which he has been so exceptional. Cora said last night they’re planning to use Pivetta in a similar bulk capacity on Sunday evening against the Mets (relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

Adding a stable veteran arm to the back of the rotation would safeguard against any injury setbacks for Sale, Houck or Whitlock (or a potential issue for Paxton, whose own health history is obviously alarming). It’d reduce the chance of Boston needing to push Pivetta back into the starting staff at any point.

Boston’s bullpen, meanwhile, skews very left-handed in the middle innings. Kenley Jansen, Pivetta, Chris Martin and Josh Winckowski are the only righties in the current 10-man mix. Pivetta’s bulk role means he’s not going to be available for shorter matchup work on most nights. Jansen is locked into his customary closing role. That leaves Martin and Winckowski — both of whom have pitched well — as the only righty setup options available.

The Sox are soon to welcome back one key reinforcement. John Schreiber had a 2.12 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate in 18 outings before a lat strain sent him to the IL in mid-May. He’s made four appearances since beginning a rehab stint two weeks ago and should soon be back in the MLB mix. Schreiber would be a high-leverage arm if he quickly recaptures his pre-injury form, although there’d still be room for additional middle relief depth.

There are various righty bullpen arms who stand out as possible trade candidates. Michael Fulmer, Keynan Middleton, Reynaldo López, old friends Joe Kelly (who’s expected back from an IL stint shortly) and Adam Ottavino, José Cisnero, Chris Stratton and Shintaro Fujinami could all be on the move.

The Opener: O’Neill, Giants, Rays, Rangers

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As the second half of the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. O’Neill to return:

Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been out since early May with a low back strain, but the 28 year old is expected to rejoin the team ahead of tonight’s game against the Marlins. O’Neill is on the 60-day IL, so a corresponding move will be necessary to make room for him on the 40-man roster. It’s been a difficult season for O’Neill, as he’s slashed just .228/.283/.337 with a 70 wRC+ in 99 plate appearances. In addition to his poor performance at the plate and time on the shelf due to injuries, O’Neill was benched early in the season by manager Oli Marmol for a perceived lack of hustle.

Despite all that, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated yesterday that O’Neill will be the club’s starting left fielder upon his return. With Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker locked into center and right field respectively, that seemingly leaves Dylan Carlson as the odd man out. Still just 24 years old, Carlson was once a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport but has struggled to turn that promise into production at the big league level as he’s slashed just .236/.324/.376 (102 wRC+) in 686 plate appearances since the start of the 2022 campaign.

2. DeSclafani to return:

The Giants and Reds were rained out in the 8th inning of yesterday’s 2-2 game at Great American Ballpark. The game is set to be finished this evening before the second game of the series tonight. According to Mark Sheldon and Allie Kaylor of MLB.com, fans who have tickets to tonight’s game can come early to watch the end of last night’s game in addition to the regularly scheduled game, while fans who had tickets to last night’s game can present them at the ballpark’s box office for a $5 discount on tickets to today’s game. Last night’s game is set to resume at 4:40pm CT.

Once tonight’s regularly scheduled game begins at 6:10pm CT, Giants right-hander Anthony DeSclafani is expected to take the mound after being placed on the 15-day IL earlier this month with shoulder fatigue. DeSclafani was excellent across 11 starts during the first two months of the season, with a 3.48 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 67 1/3 innings of work. Since then, however, DeSclafani has struggled mightily, with a 6.92 ERA and a 5.28 FIP in six starts, half of which lasted just three innings. If DeSclafani’s time on the shelf has helped him rest up and return to form, he’ll be a major asset to a Giants club in the thick of the wild card race despite getting less innings from their starting pitchers than any team in baseball besides the A’s and Rockies.

3. Rays vs Rangers:

Two of the AL’s top teams are in the midst of a key series, as the Rays (60-37) and Rangers (56-39) partake in a three game set at Globe Life Field. The Rangers won the series opener 3-2 last night, a win that put them 3.5 games ahead of the second-place Astros for the AL West crown. By contrast, the Rays’ loss last night leaves the Orioles nipping at their heels, just one game behind Tampa in an extremely competitive AL East division. Tonight’s game is set to begin at 7:05pm CT.

Right-handed youngster Taj Bradley is set to take the mound for the Rays at 7:05pm CT tonight against veteran hurler and former Ray Nathan Eovaldi, who has emerged as the ace of Texas’ pitching staff following the loss of Jacob deGrom to Tommy John surgery earlier this season with a 2.38 ERA in 117 2/3 innings of work. On the other hand, Bradley has had an up-and-down rookie campaign. The youngster sports an ugly 5.43 ERA in 61 1/3 innings despite a much stronger 3.99 FIP thanks in part to brutal results in his last three starts, where he’s allowed 16 earned runs while managing just 12 1/3 innings.

Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Deadline, Rotation, Outfield

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The Cardinals approach the trade deadline in an unfamiliar position as sellers. Sitting 12 games under .500 and in last place in the NL Central, St. Louis joins the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates as the only National League clubs at least 10 games out of a playoff spot.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted last week the Cards were turning their attention towards 2024. He expanded upon that in a wide-ranging conversation with the St. Louis beat this afternoon (YouTube link via Charlie Marlow of 590 The Fan). Cards’ fans will want to check out the complete media session.

Mozeliak conceded there wasn’t much hope of avoiding a sell-off of short-term pieces at this stage of the season. “Does performance (over the next two weeks) change our direction? Probably not at this point. Where we are in the standings, it’s going to make it very difficult to change that.” He left open the possibility of something like an eight-game win streak altering the equation but it’s clear the front office anticipates parting with a number of veteran players over the next couple weeks.

The front office leader restated they’re prioritizing trade targets who could help the big league team in the near future. Mozeliak indicated they’d look for players who’d be MLB factors by 2024-25 and was rather blunt about their positional desires.

“We’re going to treat the trading deadline as ’pitching, pitching, pitching,'” he said. “That’s not to say we’re going to ignore a position player that may be uber-great … but the goal would be to address as much pitching as possible.”

It isn’t hard to understand why. The rotation has been St. Louis’ biggest problem area. Cardinals’ starters entered play Monday ranked 25th in MLB with a 4.64 ERA. That’s obviously insufficient to begin with and it’s only likely to thin out over the next few weeks. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are impending free agents who both seem likely to change uniforms by August 1. Adam Wainwright isn’t a trade candidate but he’s retiring at season’s end.

That’s three vacancies arising before 2024. Only Miles Mikolas seems a lock for next year’s season-opening rotation. Steven Matz is under contract for two more seasons but has bounced between the starting staff and the bullpen this year. Matthew Liberatore has been tagged for a 6.39 ERA over eight MLB starts. Righty Jake Woodford wasn’t much more effective in an early-season rotation look. Former first round draftee Zack Thompson could compete for a ’24 rotation spot but has one MLB start to his name.

While St. Louis will scour the trade market for upper level starting pitching, they’ll also have to dip into free agency next winter. Mozeliak conceded it’d be nearly impossible to envision the Cards not adding a free agent starter and indicated the organization should have enough financial flexibility to attack the open market.

Interestingly, he indicated the organization’s approach to pitching acquisition could be a little different moving forward. St. Louis has prioritized ground-ball pitchers in recent seasons, relying on an excellent infield defense to support a pitch-to-contact staff. That hasn’t worked this year. St. Louis has allowed an MLB-worst .324 batting average on grounders. That’s a huge change from seasons past, one Mozeliak admitted could impact the way the front office approaches things.

The team is likely to prioritize “more swing-and-miss versus ground-ball types,” he said. Only the Rockies and Royals have gotten a lower strikeout rate out of their rotation than St. Louis’ 18.4% clip. The bullpen has been more effective, ranking 12th with a 24.5% strikeout percentage.

A few members of the relief corps are also likely to be on the way out. The Cards already designated lefty Génesis Cabrera for assignment this morning. Mozeliak called that a “change of scenery” decision, noting that Cabrera is hopeful of landing a higher-leverage role than the one he’d received in St. Louis. Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton seem likely to be dealt strictly because of their contractual situations. Both are impending free agents and having quality seasons, with the flamethrowing Hicks standing out as a particularly desirable rental trade chip.

There aren’t any true rentals on the position player side, although the Cards seem likely to opt for a $1MM buyout over a $12.5MM club option on shortstop Paul DeJong. A middle infield logjam also comprising Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman and eventually top prospect Masyn Winn makes a DeJong trade seem likely.

Left fielder Tyler O’Neill has seemed a potential trade candidate amidst a season decimated by back issues. Mozeliak didn’t expressly rule that out but seemed to cast some doubt on that possibility today, saying the Cardinals anticipated playing O’Neill as their everyday left fielder. He has been on the injured list since May 4 but could be reinstated before tomorrow’s game against Miami.

O’Neill is playing this season on a $4.95MM salary. The club can retain him for one more season via arbitration. St. Louis has enough outfield depth that O’Neill could be a non-tender candidate next winter, though it’s also possible they deal another outfielder to clear space. Star rookie Jordan Walker isn’t going anywhere, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote last week the Cards were telling other clubs they had no intention of moving Lars Nootbaar.

That arguably leaves Dylan Carlson as an odd man out. The former top prospect is hitting .243/.350/.376 over 203 trips to the plate. He reaches arbitration for the first time next winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com indicated this evening (on Twitter) the Yankees could have some interest in Carlson as they search for outfield help.

Of course, there are no bigger names the Cardinals could put on the trade market than their star corner infield tandem of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Mozeliak declined to declare either player categorically untouchable but strongly downplayed the possibility of moving either. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.” As he subsequently noted, both players have full no-trade rights, and it seems very unlikely a St. Louis team gearing back up for 2024 would want to part with either of its top two position players regardless.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/17/23

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The Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, A’s and Orioles all agreed to $4MM+ bonuses with their first round draftees this afternoon. We’ll round up the other $2MM+ signings from Monday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):

  • The Giants are signing 16th overall pick Bryce Eldridge to a $3.9975MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter links). That’s a bit below the selection’s $4.33MM slot value. Eldridge, a two-way player from a Virginia high school, ranked between 16th and 23rd on the referenced pre-draft lists. Listed at 6’7″, he’s generally regarded as a more talented power-hitting first base/corner outfield prospect than as a pitcher, though evaluators suggest he could’ve been a top-two round selection were he solely on the mound. He’s expected to try playing both ways to begin his professional career. The lefty hitter/righty thrower had been committed to Alabama. San Francisco also signed 52nd pick Walker Martin for an overslot $2.9975MM bonus. An Arkansas commit, Martin is a power-hitting infielder from a Colorado high school.
  • The Yankees announced they’ve signed first rounder George Lombard Jr. According to Callis, the Florida high schooler receives a $3.3MM bonus that beats the $3.07MM slot value of the 26th selection (Twitter link). A right-handed hitting infielder and son of the former major leaguer who currently serves as Tigers’ bench coach, Lombard Jr. had been committed to Vanderbilt. Listed at 6’3″, he’s viewed as a well-rounded and instinctual player who could hit for average and power. Evaluators generally had him as a back of the first-round prospect with some question about whether he’ll outgrow shortstop.
  • The Mariners are in agreement with 29th pick Johnny Farmelo on a $3.2MM bonus, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s the selection Seattle received under the Prospect Promotion Incentive after Julio Rodríguez won the 2022 Rookie of the Year. Farmelo, a left-handed hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school, tops the $2.8MM slot value of the selection. Generally regarded as a comp round or early second round talent, he’s a plus runner who could play center field and has some power projection in a 6’2″ frame. Farmelo was a Virginia commit.
  • The Brewers are signing 18th pick Brock Wilken for $3.15MM, Callis reports (on Twitter). That’s quite a bit below the $4.02MM slot value for the college infielder. Wilken, a Wake Forest product, is one of the better offensive prospects in the college class. Evaluators suggest he’s a power over contact player but could be a middle-of-the-order presence. They’re divided on whether the 6’4″ infielder will be athletic enough to stick at the hot corner or should move to first base down the line. The right-handed hitter put up a monster .345/.506/.807 showing during his draft year in Winston-Salem. Milwaukee also signed 33rd pick Josh Knoth for $2MM, per Callis (on Twitter). A high school righty from New York, Knoth is credited with mid-90s velocity and two impressive breaking pitches.
  • The Blue Jays agreed to a $3MM bonus with first round pick Arjun Nimmala, according to Callis (Twitter link). That’s below the $3.75MM slot value of the 20th selection. Nimmala, a high school infielder out of Florida, placed in the top 17 on each of the aforementioned rankings. The 6’1″ infielder is credited with plus power projection and a good chance to stick at shortstop. An aggressive approach and elevated swing-and-miss are the primary questions in his profile, though he’s one of the youngest players in the class and regarded as a strong upside play. Nimmala had been committed to Florida State.
  • The A’s went well above slot for third-rounder Steven Echavarria, Callis reports (Twitter links). He lands $3MM, almost $2MM north of the slot value for the 73rd pick. A high school right-hander from New Jersey, he’d been committed to Florida. He has a mid-90s fastball and potential plus curveball. Oakland also signed 39th selection Myles Naylor for the $2.025MM slot value. The Canadian infielder (younger brother of the Guardians’ Naylor brothers) is a bat-first third baseman who’d been slated to attend Texas Tech.
  • The Nationals handed out a pair of $2.6MM bonuses, per reports from Callis and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter links). Miami infielder Yohandy Morales went 40th overall after hitting .408/.475/.713 during his final season in the ACC. He’s a power-hitting third baseman. High school righty Travis Sykora gets a well above slot bonus as a third round draftee. A Texas commit, Sykora is a 6’6″ hurler who can get into the triple digits and was regarded as a possible top 40 talent in the class.
  • Infielder Sammy Stafura signed for $2.4975MM with the Reds, reports Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter). That’s above slot for the New York high school infielder, a Clemson commit. Stafura was viewed as a potential first-round talent based on his athleticism and bat speed.

Rangers To Sign First-Round Pick Wyatt Langford

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The Rangers are set to announce the signing of fourth overall draftee Wyatt Langford at a press conference tomorrow, per Jeff Wilson (Twitter link). According to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (on Twitter), the University of Florida product will take home an $8MM bonus.

Despite being a college draftee, Langford gets a signing figure a little above slot value. The fourth pick comes with a bonus allotment of $7.7MM. That reflects Langford’s reputation as a top three talent in the class. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had him first on his pre-draft board. Keith Law of the Athletic ranked him only behind Dylan Crews, while Baseball America and MLB Pipeline put him behind Crews and Paul Skenes.

Langford dipped out of the top three, but he lands a higher bonus than the $7.7MM that’ll go to #3 selection Max Clark. The righty-hitting outfielder is regarded as perhaps the best offensive player in this year’s class. He hit .373/.498/.784 during his final year in Gainesville. Langford connected on 21 homers, walked at a stellar 18.5% clip and kept his strikeouts to a tolerable 14.5% rate.

He’s also an excellent runner and figures to get a crack in center field in pro ball. Evaluators have suggested he might be better suited for left field — where he spent a decent amount of time for the Gators — as a result of fringy defensive instincts. Even if he does end up in a corner, he’s expected to eclipse the higher offensive bar necessary to be a quality everyday player.

Langford figures to immediately jump towards the top of a strong Texas farm system. McDaniel’s pre-draft writeup noted he’ll immediately slot into pro ball as ESPN’s #9 overall prospect. He ranks 11th on Baseball America’s updated Top 100, one spot ahead of Evan Carter for tops in the Rangers’ organization.

Red Sox Likely To Discuss Extension With Brayan Bello

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Brayan Bello is performing well enough in his first full season that the Red Sox seem to have interest in signing him to a long-term deal, with the club’s assistant general manager Eddie Romero saying as much to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.

“It’s all case-by-case, there’s no guidebook for it, but I think Brayan is a special case and we’ll make efforts to talk to him and his group,” Romero said. “He’s basically done what he needs to do and what we would want of a young starting pitcher in this organization and he’s gone about it the right way, he’s a great teammate and he’s improved the quality of his repertoire, he’s a very hard worker, and he’s earned the respect of everybody here so he’s the kind we want to stick around obviously.”

Those talks are unlikely to ramp up at the moment, since Bello’s preference is to focus on his performance while the season is still in progress. “If (the Red Sox) did speak to my representatives I don’t know,” he says, “because I told them if there are any extension talks I don’t want to hear about it in-season, because I want to focus on finishing my season good so that good things can happen for me.” But once the offseason rolls around, it appears he is indeed open to an extension. “I do want to stay here long-term,” he said. “This is the organization that gave me a chance to be somebody so I’d love to stay here.” Bello also expressed his openness to an extension with Rob Bradford of WEEI a couple of weeks ago.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Sox are interested in getting Bello to put pen to paper, given his strong results and the club’s need for long-term pitching solutions. He debuted in July of last year and make 13 appearances in the second half of the season, including 11 starts, posting a 4.71 earned run average in 57 1/3 innings. His 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate were both a bit below average but he kept the ball on the ground at an excellent 55.7% clip.

Here in 2023, he’s made 15 more starts with his strikeout and ground ball rates essentially holding steady but his walk rate dropping to 6.1%. That’s helped him drop his ERA by more than a full run to 3.14 for the season. He’s now been in the majors for just over a year and has a combined 3.77 ERA in 143 1/3 innings in that time and only celebrated his 24th birthday in May.

The rotation in Boston has many question marks at the moment. James Paxton is pitching well but is an impending free agent. Chris Sale still has one more guaranteed season on his contract and an option for 2025 but has been hurt quite often in recent years. The last time he reached 60 innings pitched in an individual campaign was 2019. Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta have been moved to the bullpen, with Pivetta likely to stay there since he’s thriving and Kluber likely to have his option declined this fall. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock each have plenty of club control remaining but both have struggled to stay healthy to the point that neither has hit 80 innings in a major league season yet. Kutter Crawford has a 3.74 ERA this year overall but a 4.73 mark as a starter.

Looking even further ahead, there doesn’t seem to be much immediate help coming from the farm. Bryan Mata is on the 40-man roster but has a 5.61 ERA in Triple-A this year. Brandon Walter is working out of the major league bullpen right now but has a 6.08 ERA in Triple-A this year. Some other non-roster depth pieces have also struggled, leading the club to sign journeymen like Dinelson Lamet and Kyle Barraclough to minor league deals.

Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s understandable why the club would want to keep Bello around. There shouldn’t be any terrible urgency, as he will finish this season with one year and 82 days of service time. That means he won’t be slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. But like all players, he will only increase his earning power as he moves closer to those dates, as long as he stays healthy and effective. Hunter Greene and the Reds recently agreed to a six-year, $53MM extension when he had five years of club control remaining, where Bello will be this winter. But players in their arb years can generally go beyond that, such as the $90MM guarantee secured by Logan Webb when he was between three and four years of service time or the $108MM that Luis Castillo got when he was beyond four years. That’s not to say that Bello is the same caliber of pitcher as those guys or that the Sox would have to pay that kind of money, but it does highlight the way that prices will escalate as potential free agency gets closer.

The Sox already have some significant long-term contracts on the books, with Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida and Rafael Devers each making $18MM or more for each future season through 2027. But extensions for pre-arb players generally have the salaries ramping up gradually, roughly mirroring the scaling up process of the arbitration system. A theoretical Bello extension would likely see him earn modest pay bumps over the first few seasons and the most significant salaries would be after Story and Yoshida are off the books. Devers’ contract goes through 2033 but is the only Boston player guaranteed a contract in 2028 and beyond.

Given the aforementioned rotation uncertainty, the Sox seem like a candidate to look for starting pitching in free agency this winter, but they may also look to use a few dollars to lock up their best internal candidate as well.

Latest On Josh Donaldson

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The Yankees placed Josh Donaldson on the 10-day injured list yesterday afternoon. The club initially announced his injury as a left calf strain, though further testing has apparently revealed a serious injury.

Donaldson met with reporters this evening and said doctors have called his strain anywhere between the Grade 2+ and Grade 3 varieties (relayed by Greg Joyce of the New York Post). That’s enough to diagnose it as a tear. There’s no timetable for his return.

Asked whether he expects to make it back this season, both Donaldson and manager Aaron Boone were noncommittal. Each noted the recovery timetable was variable but the skipper said it’d at least “be a decent amount of time” before Donaldson comes back.

The veteran infielder has had a disastrous 2023 campaign. Donaldson lost a good chunk of the first half with a right hamstring strain. He’s now seemingly in line to miss the bulk of the second half. Around the injuries, he’s hitting only .142/.225/.434 in 33 games. New York is sure to buy him out at year’s end for $6MM rather than trigger their end of a $16MM mutual option regardless of whether he’s able to return this season.

New York recalled top prospect Oswald Peraza to take Donaldson’s roster spot. Peraza is in the lineup at third base tonight against the Angels. Veteran DJ LeMahieu got the nod at the hot corner yesterday.

Big Hype Prospects: Crews, Skenes, Amador, Hampton, Mauricio

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Nobody runs a stronger Top 100 prospects list than Baseball America. Today, we’ll look at some key updates to their mid-season list that have yet to be reflected by other public outlets. We’ll also check in on recent draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Dylan Crews, 21, OF, WSH (CLG)
258 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .426/.567/.713

Crews leads the 2023 draft class, ranking fourth overall among the Top 100 prospects in the game. He’s basically tied with future teammate James Wood. The Nationals have the foundation of a potent outfield in the near future.

If there’s a knock on Crews, it’s a possible weakness to pro-caliber breaking balls. Perhaps the only challenge left to him before his Major League debut is coping with pitchers who can precisely command breaking stuff. Otherwise, he’s a premium all-fields power hitter who can stick in center field. Given the potency of his bat, he’s still valuable as a corner outfielder.

Paul Skenes, 21, SP, PIT (CLG)
122.2 IP, 15.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.69 ERA

Skenes outclassed college hitters in a batter-friendly run environment. He’s considered more or less Major League ready and could debut whenever Pittsburgh is ready for him. Between his heavy college workload and violent delivery, don’t expect that to happen this year. The recent trend is to shut down heavy workload college pitchers in their draft year. Skenes’ fastball is a weapon, regularly hitting triple-digit velocity with arm-side run and carry. He’s deadly working up-and-in to right-handed hitters. Southpaws won’t enjoy facing him either. He throws multiple breaking balls and features a quality changeup – a pitch that was all but unnecessary to his college dominance.

Adael Amador, SS, 20, COL (A+)
259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514

A personal miss of mine, Amador wasn’t much to look at last year despite strong results. We often see players of this ilk thrive in the low minors only to fade as they climb the ladder. It’s a discipline over physical skills profile, though the physical side of his game has improved enough to project a future starting role. Previously, I viewed him as a future oft-used utility guy based on his public measurables. My scouting contacts backed up that assessment with their visual impressions. Amador still primarily makes pulled, ground ball contact. He’ll need to develop more lift in order to make the most of his skills.

Chase Hampton, 21, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 74.2 IP, 13.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.13 ERA

An afterthought on Yankees lists entering this season, Hampton is sprinting through the minors. He’s added velocity to a five-pitch repertoire of effective offerings. He’s passed Will Warren within the system. Pitchers with at least four average pitches and 50-grade command tend to have long careers (health allowing). The Yankees haven’t shown the best feel for finishing their pitching prospects in recent years – perhaps inspiring their willingness to deal J.P. Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the deadline last season. Hampton is seemingly a cut above.

Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AAA)
358 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .299/.344/.512

Whether or not you play fantasy baseball, there’s something attractive about guys who mash dingers and raid forts. Mauricio produces wild exit velocities – 92.0 average and 115.8 max. That’s all the more impressive when we consider his Baez-ian discipline. Like early-career Baez, his ability to square pitches out of the zone helps him to recover for objectively abysmal discipline. At this stage of his career, he doesn’t flash Baez’s superlative defensive feats. Had the Mets played as expected, Mauricio is probably traded in the upcoming weeks. As it stands, he should receive an audition at second base before long.

Three More

Ethan Salas, SDP (17): Salas, whom we profiled in more depth last week, jumped from the mid-50s to 18th on the BA Top 100. A precocious defender, the rapid development of his bat has caught even his most ardent supporters by surprise. Few players generate half this much excitement in their age 16 season. How he handles his growing fame will prove instructive.

Sal Frelick, MIL (23): While I’ve soured on Frelick, BA is enthused with a 32nd ranking. Their short blurb references the reason why I’m concerned – a lack of authoritative contact. His 85.2 average and 106.5 max exit velocities are well below average in a year when most guys have artificially inflated Triple-A EVs. The discipline remains pristine.

Wyatt Langford, TEX (22): The other draftee who was widely considered a first-overall caliber prospect, Langford might manage to outhit Crews. However, he’s miles behind defensively despite comparable physical ability. FanGraphs offers a fun comp – Pat Burrell with a jetpack.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Orioles Sign First-Round Pick Enrique Bradfield Jr.

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The Orioles have agreed to a deal with first-round draftee Enrique Bradfield Jr., the club announced. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports that Bradfield receives a $4.1697MM signing bonus that matches the slot value of the 17th overall pick (Twitter link).

Bradfield ranked between 12th and 21st on pre-draft rankings at Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic. The Vanderbilt product is an elite runner who’s regarded as a potential Gold Glove defender in center field. He terrorized SEC batteries as a baserunner, going 130-143 on stolen base attempts over three college seasons (including a perfect 46-46 season as a sophomore).

While there’s no question about Bradfield’s athleticism, there’s some debate about how much of an impact he’ll have in the batter’s box. The left-handed hitter put up a .311/.426/.447 line at Vandy, including a .279/.410/.429 slash in his draft year. Evaluators suggest he’s likelier to drive a small-ball offensive profile built around his speed. Keith Law of The Athletic feels he could develop average power but raises questions about his swing mechanics.

The Orioles have skewed towards college hitters at the top of the draft. Since Mike Elias was hired as general manager going into 2019, Baltimore has taken a position player with each of its five top picks. Adley Rutschman, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Bradfield all came from the college ranks, while last year’s first overall selection Jackson Holliday was a high school draftee.

Pirates Designate Travis Swaggerty For Assignment

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The Pirates announced several roster moves today, selecting the contract of right-hander Quinn Priester and recalling prospects Endy Rodríguez and Liover Peguero, moves which were reported on over the weekend. In corresponding moves, they optioned catcher Jason Delay, right-hander Cody Bolton and outfielder Josh Palacios. In order to open a 40-man roster spot for Priester, outfielder Travis Swaggerty was designated for assignment.

Swaggerty, 25, was the club’s first round draft pick in 2018, getting selected with the 10th overall pick. He was considered one of their top prospects during his time in the minors but encountered some obstacles on his path to the majors. He suffered a dislocated shoulder in 2021 that required surgery, limiting him to 12 games that year. When combined with the minor leagues being cancelled by the pandemic in 2020, he essentially missed two whole years of normal development.

Those setbacks aside, the club still didn’t want to risk losing him in the 2021 Rule 5 draft and gave him a 40-man roster spot that November. He was able to make his major league debut last year but took just nine trips to the plate in five games. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, hitting .254/.348/.399 at that level for a wRC+ of 102.

Here in 2023, Swaggerty has spent the entire year in the minors but has only been able to play 22 games. A report from Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette from last month detailed how Swaggerty has been battling vertigo and migraines while his wife Peyton has been dealing with a rare and painful blood disease caused by a bite from a rabid raccoon. Swaggerty has made frequent trips to the IL in the minors this year, having played in just one game in the past six weeks.

The Bucs have fully embraced their youth movement this year, calling up Priester, Rodríguez and Peguero today, in addition to recent promotions of players like Henry Davis, Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales. The unfortunate side effect of those aggressive promotions is that they will bump Swaggerty off the roster.

They will now have one week to trade the young outfielder or pass him through waivers. It will be interesting to see how much interest he will receive from other clubs around the league. On the one hand, he’s a former first-round pick and was a notable prospect not too long ago. But he’s faced so many difficulties and hasn’t seemed to be in peak form in quite a while. He does have two option years, one of which he’s burning here in 2023. If some club thinks they can help him figure out the migraine issues and get him back on track, he can still be sent to the minors for another season.

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