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How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2023

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There’s still plenty of time left in the offseason for teams to check items off their winter to-do lists, but with the spirit of holiday shopping in the air, let’s take a look at what baseball’s teams have already done to fix their roster’s weakest links from last season.  Using Baseball Reference’s list of how each team performed (as per bWAR) by position in 2023, let’s start with the 15 National League clubs….

Braves (Pinch-hitting, 0.3 bWAR): We’ll start with a team without many weak points, as the Braves amassed 104 wins thanks mostly to one of the best offensive lineups in baseball history.  Atlanta’s everyday players were so good and so durable that the bench didn’t get much of a chance to even hit the field, even as late-game subs.  As to how the bench depth might improve, Vaughn Grissom is expected to take on a larger role, and David Fletcher was acquired from the Angels as a backup infield upgrade over Nicky Lopez.

Brewers (First base, 0.4 bWAR): Carlos Santana is a free agent, Rowdy Tellez was non-tendered, and Mark Canha was traded to the Tigers as the Brew Crew might more or less completely reshuffle their first base mix.  GM Matt Arnold did hint that Santana could return and highly-touted prospect Tyler Black could factor at either corner infield position, but for now, first base remains somewhat in flux.  Jake Bauers was acquired from the Yankees and currently projects to work with Owen Miller in a platoon at the cold corner.

Cardinals (Pinch-hitting, 0.2 bWAR): St. Louis’ rotation problems have been well-documented, and their 4.1 rotation bWAR ranked 28th of 30 teams.  However, pinch-hitting was technically the Cardinals’ weakest point by pure bWAR metrics, and this area might just improve with better results from the team’s in-house options.  On paper, the Cards have plenty of versatile position-player depth, though they need to figure out which members of this group will be lineup regulars or perhaps off the team altogether.

Cubs (First base, 0.4 bWAR): Even with Cody Bellinger getting a big chunk of the playing time at first base, he hit only .267/.310/.467 over 200 plate appearances as a first baseman, in contrast to his red-hot .323/.381/.548 slash line in 339 PA as a center fielder.  A Matt Mervis/Patrick Wisdom/Christopher Morel combination is currently in place at the cold corner, yet it doesn’t feel like the Cubs are going to just stand pat the position.  Wrigleyville has been linked to such trade and free agent targets as Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Rhys Hoskins, plus a reunion with Bellinger can’t yet be ruled out.

Diamondbacks (Third base, 0.0 bWAR): The NL champions only got replacement-level production at the hot corner last year, but Arizona has already made a big move by adding Eugenio Suarez in a trade with the Mariners.  It’s a possible short-term fix since 2024 is the last guaranteed year of Suarez’s contract, though he should provide the D’Backs with some extra power while the team gets some more time to evaluate Jordan Lawlar’s readiness at shortstop (which could shift Gerardo Perdomo to third base in the future).

Dodgers (Pinch-hitting, 1.3 bWAR): Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers’ “weakest position” is still pretty respectable.  The return of Gavin Lux and the acquisition of Manuel Margot should raise the talent floor on the roster in terms of bench depth, as younger players like Miguel Vargas or Michael Busch could contribute in backup or part-time roles, rather than being relied on (as Vargas was last season) for a high-pressure starting role.  The left field position also generated 1.4 bWAR in 2023, and Los Angeles hopes that the addition of Margot can help on that front, plus a return to form for Chris Taylor would help a ton.

Giants (Shortstop, -1.3 bWAR): Longtime shortstop Brendan Crawford battled injuries all season long and wasn’t very productive when he was on the field, leaving the Giants short-handed at one of the most important positions on the diamond.  Top prospect Marco Luciano made his MLB debut last season and will get a longer look in 2024, but San Francisco is also looking around for shortstop help, perhaps just as a one-year stopgap to help Luciano ease into the big leagues.

Marlins (Catcher, -0.6 bWAR): Jacob Stallings wasn’t tendered a contract, and Christian Bethancourt was acquired from the Guardians as president of baseball operations Peter Bendix picked up another of his former players from the Rays.  The Bethancourt/Nick Fortes tandem is at least a defensively-stout pairing behind the plate, though Miami isn’t done in exploring the market for more catching help, and former Cardinal Andrew Knizner is reportedly of interest.

Mets (Third base, -1.2 bWAR): No team got less from the hot corner than the Amazins, but New York’s initial plan for the offseason was to keep rolling with younger players like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, or Mark Vientos.  However, Mauricio will now miss most or all of the season due to a torn ACL, reducing the options to Baty, Vientos, or utilityman Joey Wendle.  Justin Turner is reportedly a player of interest for the Mets, which could fit since Turner would also get a lot of time as a DH, allowing for the youngsters to get action at the third base spot.  If not Turner, some other veteran infield depth option could be obtained, yet the Mets want to give their top prospects some time since 2024 is looking like something of an evaluation year for the team.

Nationals (Designated hitter, 0.7 bWAR): Joey Meneses got the bulk of DH at-bats in 2023, and he couldn’t keep up the magic of his surprising 2022 breakout, hitting only .275/.321/.401 in his second year in the majors.  Meneses could get more time at first base now that Dominic Smith has been non-tendered, and Washington also brought in Juan Yepez and Lewin Diaz on minor league deals.  In short, both the DH and first base spots are basically open-call auditions at this point, as the Nationals probably aren’t likely to acquire a longer-term answer for either position while the team is still rebuilding.  The designated hitter role might not be addressed directly, as the Nats might end up cycling several players through the position.

Padres (First base/pinch-hitting, 0.5 bWAR): San Diego’s crowded infield picture resulted in Jake Cronenworth getting most of the first base opportunity, and he struggled after posting some very solid numbers from 2020-22.  Cronenworth is still the favorite for the position at this point, and his big contract makes it likely that he’ll still be on the roster next year even though Cronenworth’s name has surfaced in some trade talks.  Manny Machado will be used as a DH early in the season until he fully recovers from his elbow surgery, which somewhat complicates any plans San Diego might have in obtaining a slugging first base/DH type, yet such a player might still be a wise addition if the Padres feel confident Machado won’t need too much time to get fully healthy.  As much as the Padres’ offseason has been defined to date by payroll cuts, their recent signing of reliever Yuki Matsui indicates that the team is still planning to contend, and getting another big bat in the lineup seems like a must.

Phillies (Third base, 0.4 bWAR): Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa mostly split the third base duties in 2023, as Bohm saw a lot of time at first base with Rhys Hoskins out and until Bryce Harper was ready to take over as the regular first baseman.  Harper will be sticking at first base in 2024, so Bohm will be back as the full-time third baseman.  The former top prospect has been roughly a league-average hitter in his four MLB seasons and his glovework at third base still garners mixed reviews, so if the Phillies did want to make a bigger move to their everyday core, Bohm might be a candidate to be the odd man out.  That said, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has indicated that the Phils are more or less done with their top-tier winter shopping.

Pirates (Catcher/shortstop, -0.9 bWAR): The answer is the same at both positions for the Bucs — get full and healthy seasons from two of their best young players.  Oneil Cruz missed almost the entire season due to ankle surgery, while Henry Davis made his MLB debut but barely played any catcher, mostly seeing time as a right fielder instead.  Unfortunately, another top catching prospect in Endy Rodriguez will miss the entire season due to UCL surgery, so Davis now looks to be the top choice behind the plate unless the Pirates prefer to use Jason Delay and Ali Sanchez while Davis gets more acclimated to the position.

Reds (Right field/DH/Pinch-hitting, 0.7 bWAR): Cincinnati had a three-way tie in the “weakest position” race, and the answer to all three positions might be internal improvements.  Or, at least a shuffle caused by the signing of Jeimer Candelario, which will further crowd the infield and push Spencer Steer into a clear left field role.  This will in turn make Will Benson and Jake Fraley into the right field platoon, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand or Jonathan India might now be in line for DH duty now that the Reds have parted ways with Joey Votto.  There are plenty of moving parts here for the Reds, not to mention the fact that Cincinnati might still move one of their infielders in a trade for pitching.

Rockies (First base/second base, -0.6 bWAR): Colorado hopes to have Kris Bryant and Brendan Rodgers healthy, which would automatically make things better at the two lackluster infield positions.  It’s been a pretty quiet winter to date for the Rockies, as their limited transactions to date have understandably been focused on addding pitching.  Colorado only received 0.6 bWAR from its starting pitchers in 2023, the lowest mark in baseball.

KBO League’s LG Twins Re-Sign Deok Ju Ham

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Left-hander Deok Ju Ham is staying in the Korea Baseball Organization, as Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (X link) reports that Ham has re-signed with the LG Twins for a four-year deal worth close to $2.9MM, including incentives.

Ham emerged as a possibility for Major League teams last month, when MLB tendered a status check on the southpaw with the KBO League.  This procedural move essentially indicates some level of interest in a Korean player from a big league team, though obviously no deal was worked out and Ham opted to stay with the Twins.  It could be that he preferred the security of a four-year contract over what might’ve been just a one-year flier from a Major League team for less money, or perhaps even a non-guaranteed sum.  Yoo notes that the status check “came as a surprise,” though it isn’t clear if this was surprising to Ham, the Twins, or maybe both parties.

Since Ham has 11 seasons of experience in the KBO League, he was a full free agent, and would’ve available to be signed by a big league team without an additional posting fee going to the Twins.  Despite that long track record in South Korea, Ham is still a few weeks shy of his 29th birthday, and might be poised for bigger things now that he has seemingly moved past the injuries that limited him to 33 2/3 innings in 2021-22.  Ham bounced back strongly to post a 1.62 ERA over 55 2/3 relief innings for the Twins in 2023, helping the Seoul-based franchise capture the third Korean Series title in franchise history.

Ham has a 3.50 ERA over 501 2/3 innings in his KBO career, comprised of eight seasons with the Doosan Bears and the last three seasons with the Twins.  Working mostly as a reliever, Ham has dabbled in rotation work by starting 33 of his 397 career games, but has generally found more success out of the bullpen.  Ham isn’t a high velocity pitcher and his 23.94% strikeout rate is solid but unspectacular, and he has been bothered by control problems at various points in his career.

The four-year contract closes the door on Ham’s chances of coming to the big leagues in the near future, barring a trade or some kind of further agreement between the lefty and the Twins.  He’ll be 33 at the end of the deal and could still perhaps be a candidate to jump to MLB in 2028, though for now, Ham will focus his efforts on bringing the Twins another championship.

Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, Yankees Continue To Be Interested In Yariel Rodriguez

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Yariel Rodriguez’s market continues to percolate, as the Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Yankees “are still in the bidding for” the right-hander’s services, according to reporter Francys Romero (X link) earlier this week.  Romero’s post came prior to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s deal with the Dodgers, as Romero suggested that Rodriguez’s suitors were first waiting for Yamamoto to sign.

This would seemingly refer to the Yankees and Blue Jays in particular, who were known to be in the running for Yamamoto’s services.  Toronto was a bit more on the periphery of the hunt while the Yankees were seemingly one of three or four finalists, joining the Mets and Giants in falling short of the Dodgers in the bidding for the Japanese ace.  Presumably neither the Yankees or Jays would’ve been in on Rodriguez if they had signed Yamamoto, so the presence of two big spenders still in the market is good news for Rodriguez and his reps at WME Baseball.

It should be noted that Romero didn’t state that these four teams were finalists for Rodriguez, or that any other known suitors were out of the running.  The Astros, Jays, Pirates, and Yankees were all listed among the 10 interested teams in Romero’s initial report about Rodriguez in early November, and that group (which also included the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, and White Sox) has grown to include the Rays, Red Sox, and Padres in subsequent reports.

Rodriguez is something of a wild card in the free agent pitching market, given that he has spent most of his career pitching in Cuba, he worked mostly out of the bullpen with the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2020-22, and he didn’t pitch at all in 2023 (apart from the World Baseball Classic) since he sat out the NPB season trying to get released from his contract with the Dragons.  However, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 27 until March, and there is enough intrigue in his upside as a starter that MLBTR ranked him 28th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $32MM contract.

This price point would put Rodriguez in range for even lower-payroll teams, even if such clubs are taking more of a risk in such a financial commitment for a pitcher with no Major League track record.  For the Pirates specifically, $32MM for Rodriguez would rank as one of the eight most expensive contracts in the franchise’s history, so it would seem rather aggressive for a Bucs team just coming out of a rebuild to suddenly splurge on an unproven arm.  That said, the Pirates are known to be looking for more rotation help, and they could have enough faith in Rodriguez’s upside that they could view something like a $32MM investment as a potential bargain.

International signings have been the backbone of the Astros’ run of success over the last decade, in the form of inexpensive deals for future stars like Jose Altuve or Framber Valdez, or Houston’s more significant investment in a five-year, $47.5MM deal for Yuli Gurriel when he came to the big leagues from Cuba during the 2016 season.  Current Astros general manger Dana Brown naturally wasn’t in change of the front office back in 2016, though he did suggest that his team was looking to add “a legit third starter or better” this offseason, while acknowledging that the Astros were working with a somewhat limited amount of spending space.  Roster Resource projects Houston’s 2024 payroll to sit almost exactly at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which is notable since the Astros have only once (in 2020) exceeded the tax line in their history.

Signing Rodriguez would be an interesting fallback position from Yamamoto for either New York or Toronto.  Rodriguez’s lack of track record wouldn’t necessarily solidify a rotation that already has a couple of injury-related question marks in Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, as well as the unproven Clarke Schmidt as the projected fourth starter.  However, the Yankees might view Rodriguez as an upside play as a de facto fifth starter, or perhaps even a bullpen addition if he doesn’t work out as a starter.

The same could be said about Rodriguez’s possible usage on the Blue Jays’ staff, even if Toronto’s rotation is a little more defined.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi project as the top four, with Alek Manoah penciled in as the fifth starter for now despite all of the uncertainty in the wake of Manoah’s rough 2023 season.  Adding Rodriguez would give the Blue Jays more depth if Manoah can’t bounce back, or perhaps the Jays would then feel more emboldened to trade Manoah or even Kikuchi to address other needs in the lineup.

Details On Dylan Cease Trade Talks Between White Sox, Reds

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There hasn’t been much on the Dylan Cease front since early December, when reports suggested that the White Sox were going to wait until the free agent pitching market had become a bit clearer before again weighing offers for the right-hander.  The Reds were known to be one of the clubs interested in Cease, though 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reported that the Sox had asked for a four-player trade package — pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty, as well as two position-player prospects.

Jason Williams of the Cincinnati Enquirer sheds some more light on Chicago’s demands, writing that the White Sox wanted Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, “and at least one more prospect.”  This could mean that the Sox wanted a five-player return, with Petty and an unknown position player comprising the other two names involved. MLB Pipeline ranks Lowder, Arroyo, and Phillips within the top 68 prospects in all of baseball, while Lowder (45th) and Phillips (86th) also ranked within Baseball America’s last top 100 ranking from September.

New White Sox GM Chris Getz has been open about the fact that he is willing to discuss any player on his team’s roster in trade negotiations, though some obviously come at a much higher price tag than others.  Luis Robert Jr. may be the only player close to truly untouchable, and Cease might not be far off, though the two have differing levels of team control.  Robert’s contract contains two club options that control his services through the 2027 season, while Cease has only two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he can hit free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.

Still, two years of a frontline pitcher like Cease is still quite an asset — either for a White Sox team trying to get on track after a disastrous season, or as a trade chip the Sox can use to reload the roster for both now and the future.  The Reds are a natural trade partner on paper, given how Cincinnati is in sore need of pitching help and is also deep in position-player prospects.  Cincinnati was known to have interest in Chicago’s pitching even prior to the All-Star break, so it is safe to assume Cease has been on the Reds’ radar for a while, at least in some fashion.

Because the White Sox are known to be targeting pitching, however, the Sox and Reds might not quite line up as smoothly on a Cease trade as it might seem.  Obviously any team would be hesitant about moving three of its top-rated pitching prospects, and in particular, the Reds would be wary about cleaning out their pitching assets when they have so much of an surplus in another area (the infield) in their farm system.  Speculatively speaking, the Reds might be more willing to consider a package of Arroyo, another position player, and one pitcher for Cease, yet it isn’t surprising why Cincinnati would balk at moving at least two of Phillips, Lowder, and Petty on top of what is already a substantial return of infield talent.

There isn’t really any harm in aiming high, of course, as Getz has plenty of offseason left to continue to explore other potential trade packages involving Cease.  The fact that the Dodgers have already nabbed two of the top free agent (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and trade (Tyler Glasnow) targets on the market has left a lot of other teams still in sore need of rotation help, so it certainly seems possible that Cease might be wearing another uniform by Opening Day.

It is also too early to rule the Reds out of any further Cease talks, even if that rumored four-for-one or five-for-one seems like a bridge too far.  Cincinnati has been aggressive in adding to its rotation and bullpen by signing Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan, and bolstered its infield picture even further by signing Jeimer Candelario.  The addition of Candelario seemingly makes it more likely that the Reds could move an infielder in some manner of trade, whether for Cease or another pitcher.

Red Sox, Angels Reportedly Interested In Teoscar Hernandez

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TODAY: Hernandez and the Red Sox have “been discussing potential contract parameters” but no formal offer has been made, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  The team’s “engagement with Hernandez picked up” after Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers, as the Sox had been one of the other suitors monitoring Yamamoto’s market.

DECEMBER 22: The Red Sox and Angels are both showing interest in outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Hernandez’s market has been fairly quiet since the offseason started last month, as slugger Shohei Ohtani dominated the positional market for much of the offseason to this point while the outfield market has seen most of its activity come from trades, with players like Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Jarred Kelenic changing hands.

Hernandez, 31, is coming off a down season at the plate during which he slashed just .258/.305/.435 (105 wRC+) as a member of the Mariners. With that being said, the slugger still managed to crush 26 home runs last season and entered 2023 with a whopping .283/.333/.519 slash line since the start of the 2020 campaign. That slash line is good for a 133 wRC+, tied with Austin Riley for the 20th best figure in the majors across the 2020-22 seasons. With a stable, above-average offensive floor and a tantalizing, All Star-caliber ceiling, Hernandez ranked 12th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $80MM contract.

Either team is a fairly plausible fit for Hernandez. The Angels have a fairly healthy outfield mix that features superstar Mike Trout in center field with Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak as the club’s top corner options, backed up by the likes of Jo Adell and Luis Rengifo. That being said, Rosenthal also reports that Rengifo, Ward, and Moniak are all garnering trade interest from other clubs. Moving even one of those players could provide an open for Hernandez to take a corner outfield spot on an everyday basis. Even if the club decides not to move on from any of the bats currently in its outfield mix, the addition of Hernandez and his reliable 25 to 30 home run power would go a long way to replacing the 44 dingers Ohtani smacked this past season.

As for Boston, the club shipped Verdugo to the Bronx earlier in the offseason before replacing him with Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals. That leaves the club with O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Rob Refsnyder to mix-and-match with alongside Masataka Yoshida, who figures to split time between left field and DH on a daily basis next season. While O’Neill and Duran both have everyday potential and a youngster such as Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela could emerge as a quality option, adding a reliable bat to the outfield could provide a major boost to a Red Sox offense that lost Justin Turner and Adam Duvall to free agency last month. Boston’s hitting corps posted a middle-of-the-pack 99 wRC+ last season and Hernandez’s power potential could be a catalyst for a club that generated just 63 home runs from its outfield mix in 2023, the seventh-worst figure in the majors.

As Rosenthal notes, Boston appears to be focused on acquiring a front-of-the-rotation starter at the moment. The Angels, meanwhile, were connected to reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell recently and have reportedly been aggressive on the trade market in hopes of upgrading their pitching staff. Even as run prevention appears to be the priority of both clubs headed into 2024, that’s unlikely to preclude either club from adding a bat of Hernandez’s caliber. Roster Resource projects the Angels for a 2024 payroll $62MM lower than their 2023 figure, while the Red Sox project for a payroll $67MM under their all-time high payroll (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) of just over $236MM. That should leave both organizations with plenty of payroll room for both Hernandez (whose aforementioned contract projection from MLBTR carries an average annual value of $20MM) and a front-end starter such as Snell or Jordan Montgomery, to say nothing of the availability of cheaper options like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market.

Of course, Hernandez is hardly the only right-handed bat of note who either club could look to add this offseason. That being said, other options such as Turner, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins all seem likely to require regular use of the DH slot. While that doesn’t appear to be a problem for the Angels, who have previously been connected to Martinez this offseason, the Red Sox seem poised to rotate between bat-first players like Yoshida, Rafael Devers, and Triston Casas at DH. The acquisition of any of these alternative bats would likely force Boston to play all three of those players in the field on a nearly everyday basis, complicating their defensive outlook significantly.

2023-24 MLB Free Agents

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The following players are currently free agents.  Each player’s 2024 age is in parentheses.  The cutoff for this list is typically 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors in 2023.

For a free agent list that can be filtered to signed or unsigned players, position, age, handedness, and much more, check out our MLB Contract Tracker.  The Contract Tracker is only available to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

Updated 3-27-24

Catchers

Manny Piña (37)

First Basemen

Brandon Belt (36)
Wil Myers (33)
Darin Ruf (37)
Donovan Solano (36)

Second Basemen

Hanser Alberto (31)
Jonathan Schoop (32)
Jean Segura (34)
Donovan Solano (36)

Shortstops

Adalberto Mondesi (28)

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria (38)
Jean Segura (34)

Left Fielders

Corey Dickerson (35)
Austin Meadows (29)
Tommy Pham (36)
AJ Pollock (36)
Raimel Tapia (30)

Center Fielders

None

Right Fielders

Wil Myers (33)

Designated Hitters

Kyle Lewis (28)
Austin Meadows (29)

Starting Pitchers

Matthew Boyd (33)
Mike Clevinger (33)
Johnny Cueto (38)
Zack Greinke (40)
Rich Hill (44)
Noah Syndergaard (31)
Julio Urias (27)
Vince Velasquez (32)

Right-Handed Relievers

Anthony Bass (36)
Brad Boxberger (36)
Codi Heuer (27)
Mark Melancon (39)
Zach Neal (35)
Alex Reyes (29)
Nick Wittgren (33)

Left-Handed Relievers

Jarlin Garcia (31)
Brad Hand (34)
Aaron Loup (36)

Marc Narducci: My Hall Of Fame Ballot

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Marc Narducci spent 37 years covering all sports for The Philadelphia Inquirer before retiring in July 2021. He covered everything from high school sports to the Phillies winning the World Series and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. A lifelong southern New Jersey resident, he remains a freelance writer and broadcaster. Once again, Marc reached out to see if MLB Trade Rumors would be interested in publishing his Hall of Fame ballot. I am happy to do it and hope it can be an interesting topic of debate for our readers. Here’s Marc…

This was an extremely difficult baseball Hall of Fame ballot because it causes debate over those who prioritize longevity over others who place emphasis on shorter-term excellence.
Before going into the ballot, a little bit about the philosophy of this voter.

First off, I won’t criticize anybody’s ballot. There are many different opinions on what a Hall of Fame player should be and that is fine.

As stated last year at MLBtraderumors.com and in also in 2021, I have not voted for those associated with steroids.

As one can see from the comments sections, there are many of you who have disagreed and that’s fine. I’m not here to try to convince anybody to change his or her mind. This is just the way I feel, how the steroid era put such a stain on the game.

I have also not voted for Carlos Beltran, who admittedly was the mastermind of the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. Those actions cost him his job as a manager and for now, this vote.
Again, I can see people who think this is crazy to keep such an accomplished player off the ballot. I’m not here to attempt to convince anybody either way, just to say this is what went into my voting.

I don’t think all the Astros should be punished, but that’s another story for another day.

Now, for the ballot.

There are two holdovers who I voted for last year and we will start there.

Todd Helton

Helton, now in his sixth year on the ballot, is close to the finish line. He received 72.2% of the votes. Just a refresher, a player needs 75% of the votes. For those who didn’t see last year’s story, we’ll reiterate his case.

The negative perception is that he was a product of playing his entire career at Coors Field. The splits were significant home and away.

Yet his .287/.386/.469 slash line on the road was impressive, but it did pale in comparison to his numbers at Coors – .345/441/.607.

His career line was .316/414/.539.

While the sabermetrics community may scoff at batting average, it takes a lot to hit .300 for a season, let alone a career. Last season just nine players with the required 502 plate appearance hit .300.

In 2000, Helton won a batting title hitting .372.

Here were his splits that season – home: .391/.484/.758. Away: .353/.441/633.

He was a first baseman who wasn’t known for his power, but he still hit 369 home runs and had 1,406 RBI, while playing all 17 seasons for the Rockies.

Helton was a five-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and a three-time Gold Glove recipient.

It’s more than enough to put him on this ballot.

Billy Wagner

Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot and keeps moving closer. (How a person fares on other ballots doesn’t impact this vote, but it is good to note how close or far somebody is from being elected).

Wagner last year earned 68.1% of the votes.

The two knocks against Wagner are his low innings total and his postseason struggles.

Both are valid points.

Wagner pitched just 903 innings. His postseason production, even though it only consisted of 11 1/3 innings over 14 appearances, was poor to say the least. He had a 10.03 ERA, although Wagne did convert all three save opportunities.

His positives outweigh the negatives.

In looking for a HOF player, I like to see excellence. Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum of 750 innings pitched) is the best in MLB history.

Wagner had 422 saves, and an impressive save percentage (86%). His career 2.31 ERA and 187 ERA+ are second best among HOF relievers. Only Mariano Rivera (2.21 ERA, and 205 ERA+) is better in both categories.

The newcomers

Adrian Beltre

There won’t be much convincing to do here. Beltre’s career 93.5 rWAR is surpassed by just two HOF third basemen – Mike Schmidt (106.8) and Eddie Matthews (96.0).

Here were Beltre’s career numbers – .286/339/.480 for his career with 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1707 RBI and a 116 OPS+. One thing that is interesting is that he was just a four-time All-Star. He won five Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers and was a Top 10 MVP finisher six times.

The only question with Beltre is whether he will be a unanimous choice.

Joe Mauer

Here is where the debate starts. The knock against Mauer is that while he was an excellent catcher, he only played the position for a decade. Due to concussions from catching, he moved to first base for the final five seasons. He caught 70 or more games eight times. In total he caught 921 games, making 885 starts as a catcher.

In those 10 seasons he hit .323/405/.469 with a 135 OPS+.

When somebody does something historical, the feeling here is that it should add to his HOF candidacy. Mauer is the only catcher to win three batting titles, in 2006, 2008 and 2009. In those three years, he caught 120, 139 and 109 games respectively. He batted .347 in 2006, .328 in 2008 and .365 in 2009.

During those first 10 seasons, he was a six-time All-Star, won an MVP (in 2009) and finished in the Top 10 four times. Mauer also earned five Silver Slugger awards and three Gold Gloves.

Is that enough production in a decade of work?

Due to the demands of the position, we think so.

Plus, how much did the toll of catching and the injuries contribute to the decline after he switched positions?

His final five seasons were well below HOF worthy – .278/.359/.388 with a 105 OPS+. Never a big home run hitter, he hit 38 of his career 143 home runs in the final five seasons.

Still, even with the decline, here are his career statistics – .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+.

Only eight HOF catchers have a higher career rWAR than Mauer (55.2).

He certainly did enough in his years as a catcher to make this ballot.

Chase Utley

The longevity issue is what hurts Utley. Utley had a five-year stretch that was definitely HOF standard. From 2005-2009, he hit .301/.388/535 and averaged 29.2 home runs. 110.6 runs, 101.4 RBI, 151 games and 675 plate appearances. His fWAR average for those five years was an astonishing 7.7.

During this span Utley earned four of his six All-Star appearances.

The Phillies made the playoffs the final three of those seasons, winning the World Series in 2008 and losing to the NY Yankees in the 2009 World Series. Utley hit five home runs in the 2009 series, which is tied for the most in MLB history. Reggie Jackson in 1977 and George Springer in 2017 also hit five.

He had other strong seasons, but none to match this five-year average.

His career numbers, especially for a second baseman were strong – .275/.358/.465 and a 117 OPS+. He had 1,103 runs and 1,025 RBI. Will the fact that he had fewer than 2,000 hits (1,885) hurt Utley?

Probably in the eyes of some, but he ended up being a six-time All-Star and earning four Silver Slugger Awards.

Only 10 HOF second basemen have a higher rWAR than Utley (64.5). Only four HOF second basemen have more home runs than Utley (259).

Injuries caught up to Utley, but he was more than a five-year wonder. Even after 2009, he would make two other All-Star teams and from 2010-2014 had an average OPS+ of 116.

Utley played the game hard, was a quiet leader of during the greatest run in Phillies history when they qualified for the playoffs five consecutive seasons 2007-2011.

It is understandable for those who feel he didn’t perform at a top level long enough, but he did enough to get on this ballot.

David Wright

New York Mets third baseman David Wright was on a HOF trajectory before spinal stenosis ended his career. Wright’s last full-time year was his age-31 season in 2014.

His counting stats, which included 1,777 career hits and 242 home runs, will be used against him, but Wright had an impressive nine-year peak, where he earned seven All-Star berths. The seven all-star games matched last year’s HOF inductee Scott Rolen.

From 2005-2013, Wright hit .302/.384./.505 with a 138 OPS+. Wright averaged 23 home runs, 90 runs and 93 RBI. During this time, he won two Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting four times. After this period, he would play just one more full season, 2014 when the decline began.

His final career numbers were .296/376/.491 and a 133 OPS+. Only seven HOF third baseman have a higher OPS+ than Wright.

Should Wright be penalized for suffering what turned out to be a career-ending injury, that ended his full-time status after his age 31 season?

It can be argued that durability is part of being a HOF player and that is a good case, but Wright was the face of the franchise, a perennial All-Star and a strong two-way performer.

We can see both sides of this argument, just as we can for Utley and to a degree Mauer, but these players did enough to make it onto this ballot, even if their excellence was shorter than some would like.

Braxton Garrett’s Rotation Emergence

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Braxton Garrett did not begin the 2023 season in the Marlins’ rotation. His first appearance was a three-inning relief outing on April 1. The Fish optioned him two days later but recalled him within a day as Johnny Cueto went on the injured list.

Cueto’s injury opened a spot for Garrett to assume the #5 starting job behind Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. The left-hander was a quality depth option, a former #7 overall pick who had turned in a 3.58 ERA over 17 starts in 2022. That the Marlins nevertheless brought in Cueto and began with Garrett sixth on the depth chart suggests the front office had trepidation about his ability to repeat those results.

Once injury pushed Garrett back into the starting mix, he didn’t look back. The 26-year-old made 30 starts from that point forward, ultimately logging 159 2/3 innings. He finished third on the team in workload while allowing 3.66 earned runs per nine. That came with above-average peripherals across the board. Garrett punched out a solid 23.7% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground nearly half the time. He walked only 4.4% of opposing hitters, showcasing the plus control which evaluators had praised during his time as a prospect.

It’s not an overpowering profile. He averaged just 90.5 MPH with the sinker that serves as his primary offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, Garrett has shown the ability to miss bats with his assortment of secondary pitches. He generated above-average whiff rates on each of his slider, cutter and changeup. The well-rounded arsenal allowed him to avoid significant platoon issues. Garrett’s strikeout and walk profile was better than average regardless of the opponent’s handedness. Right-handed hitters made more authoritative contact than southpaws, but neither side produced much overall.

Garrett’s development into a mid-rotation arm has taken on extra importance given other setbacks in the starting staff. Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October, knocking him out of the mix for 2024. Rogers injured his left biceps and right (non-throwing shoulder), limiting him to four starts. Cabrera, a former top pitching prospect, has shown promising stuff but continues to issue plenty of free passes. The Cueto signing didn’t work.

Miami’s rotation was productive overall. Luzardo also took a step forward, while 20-year-old Eury Pérez posted a 3.15 ERA over 19 starts as a rookie. That the Fish turned to Garrett in the second game of their Wild Card series with the Phillies still hints at both the strength of his ’23 campaign and some of the hits Miami took above him on the season-opening depth chart.

Garrett has just under two years of major league service. He’ll surely qualify for early arbitration next offseason as a Super Two player but remains under club control for five additional seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote in late November the Fish were receiving trade interest in their young starters but were likely to consider Garrett off limits. There’s no question of his place in the rotation heading into 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Sign Yuki Matsui To Five-Year Deal

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The Padres have signed left-hander Yuki Matsui to a five-year contract, the club has announced. Matsui and the Padres were reportedly close to a deal earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Matsui will receive $28MM guaranteed over the life of the contract, which includes opt-outs after the third and fourth seasons of the deal as well as an injury clause that can convert the fifth year of the contract into a club option worth $7MM if Matsui suffers a “serious” elbow injury during the life of the contract.

The deal represents San Diego’s first significant buy-side move of the offseason, and their first major move since trading star slugger Juan Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Yankees earlier this month for a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe. It’s a somewhat unusual deal for a reliever; right-hander Robert Suarez’s agreement with the Padres and the record-breaking deal between star closer Edwin Diaz and the Mets, both of which were signed last offseason, are the only contracts for free agent relievers to surpass five years.

Matsui landed at #43 on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $16MM deal.  Matsui nearly doubled that guarantee, though the average annual value of his deal comes in at just $5.6MM, well below the $8MM MLBTR projected him for over a two-year apct. Despite the unusual length of the deal, the gamble is an understandable one for the Padres to make. The deal covers Matsui’s age-28 through -32 seasons, with his first opt-out opportunity coming after Matsui’s age-30 campaign in 2026. The lowered AAV of the deal was surely particularly appealing to the Padres, who are reportedly hoping to stay under the luxury tax in 2024. Given those financial constraints, Matsui’s deal represents a more cost-effective alternative to reuniting with relief ace Josh Hader, who MLBTR projected for a whopping six-year, $110MM guarantee on the heels of a dominant season as San Diego’s closer.

While Matsui can’t be reasonably expected to match Hader’s incredible production last season (1.28 ERA and 33 saves in 56 1/3 innings), the lefty has put together an excellent career overseas in his own right. Matsui’s spent the past ten seasons pitching for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Tohuku Rakuten Golden Eagles. During his NPB career, Matsui has racked up 236 saves in 501 appearances while earning five All Star nods. In 659 2/3 innings of work during his career, Matsui sports a sterling 2.40 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate. He’s been even more impressive over the past three seasons, a combined 1.42 ERA and a 36.4% strikeout rate across 152 innings during that time.

Matsui was a frequent subject of MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series throughout the 2023 season, where Dai Takegami Podziewski discussed Matsui’s four-pitch mix that includes a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96 along with a splitter, slider, and curveball while also noting that Matsui reportedly struggled to adjust to the MLB ball while participating in the World Baseball Classic last spring. Clearly, the Padres were more enticed by Matsui’s deep pitch mix and impressive velocity for a lefty who is listed at just 5’8” and 167 pounds than they were concerned by his struggles to adjust to the ball used in the majors earlier this year.

While the addition of Matsui shores up a Padres bullpen lacking in certainty, there’s plenty left for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office to do if they hope to return to contention in 2024. Another set-up arm to pair with Matsui and Suarez at the back of the bullpen would be helpful, and at least one more starting pitcher who can step into the void left by the departures of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez this offseason alongside King appears to be all but necessary.

On the hitting side of things, the Padres have just two outfielders on their 40-man roster at the moment in Fernando Tatis Jr. and fourth outfielder Jose Azocar, meaning they’ll need to make multiple additions to the lineup to cover the two vacant outfield spots and DH, which lacks a clear starter following the deal that sent Matt Carpenter and his salary to Atlanta earlier in the month.

That’s a hefty shopping list for any club, but it’s especially daunting for a Padres club that projects for a $210MM luxury tax payroll per RosterResource. If the Padres are indeed intent on staying under the first tax threshold of $237MM in 2024, that gives them just under $27MM of payroll space left to work with this offseason as they look to fill the remaining holes in the lineup and pitching staff. While the addition of Matsui is a step in the right direction that didn’t eat into the club’s financial capabilities too excessively, the Padres clearly still have plenty of work to do before they’re ready to contend in an ever-improving NL West next year.

Padres Release Michel Baez, Jorge Ona

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The Padres released right-hander Michel Baez and outfielder Jorge Ona earlier this week according to the transaction section of each player’s MLB.com player page. Neither of the two former big leaguers were still on the club’s 40-man roster and had been in the organization on minor league contracts.

Baez, 28 next month, signed with the Padres out of Cuba prior to the 2017 season and quickly impressed prospect evaluators. Prior to the 2018 season, Baez was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport with some publications even ranking him in the top 30. While Baez was moved to the bullpen in 2019, when he made his big league debut later that year the right-hander appeared to be on track to live up to his potential with an impressive 3.03 ERA in 29 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, that’s not how things worked out as Baez has made just five appearances in the majors since, most recently in 2022.

While injuries, including Tommy John surgery during the 2021 season, have played a role in Baez’s fall from promising prospect to released from the Padres organization entirely, the right-hander has largely struggled at the upper levels of the minors even when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. He’s pitched just 35 innings at the Triple-A level in his career with a brutal 8.23 ERA and more walks than strikeouts, while he owns a career 4.47 ERA in 86 2/3 innings of work at the Double-A level.

Ona, 27 next week, signed out of Cuba as part of the same class as Baez, though he didn’t receive the same fanfare as a prospect. Ona has been dogged by injuries all throughout his career, last reaching even 70 games played in a single season back in 2018. When on the field, however, Ona occasionally showed flashes of potentially including a 25-game stint at the Double-A level back in 2019 where he slashed an impressive .348/.418/.539 in 103 plate appearances.

That strong performance earned Ona a brief cup of coffee at the big league level during the shortened 2020 season, where he managed to hit .250/.400/.583 in 15 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Ona has scarcely taken the field since then with just 422 plate appearances across all levels in the past three seasons, almost all of which have come at the Double-A level. In 2023, Ona managed to get into just 35 games and when on the field slashed a lackluster .218/.301/.391 in 123 trips to the plate.

Now on the open market for the first time in their careers, both Ona and Baez will have the opportunity to either attempt to catch on with another organization at the minor league level or else depart affiliated ball for an independent league or potential overseas opportunities. Baez’s brief flashes of success at the big league level and prospect pedigree could give him better odds of securing another role in affiliated ball than Ona, though its possible the outfielder could be of interest to a team as well if he can prove himself to be healthy enough to handle a full professional season.

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