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Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Dodgers Outright Tyler Cyr

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The Dodgers have assigned Tyler Cyr outright to Triple-A, per MLB.com’s transactions log. There had been no prior indication that Cyr was placed on waivers. Unless added back to the 40-man roster, he’ll be eligible for minor league free agency in November.

A tenth-round pick by San Francisco in the 2015 draft, Cyr spent seven seasons in Giants organization before departing via minor league free agency for the Phillies, with whom he made his major league debut in 2022. He split the 2022 season between Philadelphia and Oakland, pitching to a 2.70 ERA and 4.01 FIP in 13 1/3 innings of work in the majors. He had a similarly strong performance at Triple-A, where he posted a 2.85 ERA with a 3.51 FIP with a strikeout rate of 25.7%.

In 2023, Cyr spent his entire age-30 season as a member of the Dodgers organization after signing with the club on a minor league deal back in January. He struggled to a 5.85 ERA at the Triple-A level for the club, though he notched two scoreless appearances for LA in the majors before going on the injured list in late May with a shoulder impingement. He was transferred to the 60-day IL shortly thereafter and remained there for the rest of the season.

Limited as Cyr’s big league experience may be, the righty will likely be able to find minor league offers in free agency again this offseason thanks to his small-sample big league success and solid minor league track record, with a 3.47 ERA in the minors dating back to the 2019 campaign, the year of his Triple-A debut.

As for the Dodgers, the club has several, much bigger decision to make in the coming days regarding their bullpen, as they hold club options on four veteran right-handers: Daniel Hudson, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, and Alex Reyes. Regardless of the club’s decisions on those options, the Dodgers bullpen figures to be anchored by the likes of Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, and Caleb Ferguson in 2024.

East Notes: Judge, Mets, Finnegan

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Yankees captain and star outfielder Aaron Judge was presented with the 2023 Roberto Clemente award in Arizona yesterday, and spoke with the media (including David Lennon of Newsday) afterwards regarding the coming offseason in New York. Judge told reporters during the scrum that he spoke with Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner yesterday about changes to the organization and that they’ll have another conversation in-person when Judge returns to New York. While Judge indicated a preference to keep the specifics of his discussions with Steinbrenner private, he noted that there’s plenty of ways the organization could look to change this offseason.

“You know, changes could mean a lot of different things,” Judge said, “From philosophies, players, coaches, everything. [The Yankees] haven’t made it to the big dance in quite a few years, so we got some work to do, even on the player side.”

Judge has previously spoken about a desire to see the club’s communication of analytics information to players improved, hinting at one area the club could look to improve in 2024. Beyond that, the Yankees have at least one spot on the coaching staff to fill, as in-season hitting coach hire Sean Casey won’t return to the club in 2024. The club has frequently been a topic of discussion on the trade rumor mill the past month, as well, with a rumored connection to Padres star Juan Soto. The potential for the club to move on from some arbitration-level players, including a member of their catching corps and perhaps even second baseman Gleyber Torres, has also been discussed.

More from MLB’s East divisions…

  • The Mets have not yet scheduled an interview with Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who formally interviewed with the Guardians yesterday. That being said, Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicates that while the meeting between the sides hasn’t been “firmed up yet”, the expectation is that a meeting will happen soon. What’s more, Heyman adds that the Mets figure to be the highest bidder for Counsell’s services in terms of salary. While Heyman suggests that the Mets are unlikely to offer a salary at the level of Joe Torre’s record $8MM figure as manager of the Yankees, he notes that still leaves plenty of room for the Mets to offer Counsell a contract richer than the $4.5MM salary recently-retired Guardians manager Terry Francona received in 2023, which was the highest in the majors this year.
  • Nationals right-hander Kyle Finnegan figures to reprise his role as the club’s closer in 2024, as noted by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Zuckerman suggests that the club hopes Finnegan will continue performing with the club as a late-inning option out of the bullpen into 2025, when they hope to return to contention. That being said, Zuckerman also suggests that, in the event the Nationals are out of the race next summer and Finnegan is pitching well, the club will once again consider moving Finnegan, as they did prior to the trade deadline earlier this year. Of course, no deal came together then, and Finnegan struggled down the stretch this season with a 5.18 ERA and 5.52 FIP in 24 1/3 innings in August and September. That being said, Finnegan entered the month of August with an ERA of 3.00, leaving him with solid overall season numbers including a 3.76 ERA (115 ERA+) and a 21.9% strikeout rate in 67 appearances.

The Opener: World Series, Rangers, Surgeries

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day this Halloween:

1. Diamondbacks fall behind at home:

The Diamondbacks dropped the first game of the World Series homestand last night as the Rangers won 3-1. That leaves Arizona trailing in the series, two games to one, as they prepare for Game 4 this evening. As the club did in Game 4 of the NLCS, the Diamondbacks will once again turn to a bullpen game, opened by left-hander Joe Mantiply (4.26 ERA this postseason). Texas, on the other hand, will start lefty Andrew Heaney (6.00 postseason ERA) with righty Dane Dunning (6.00 postseason ERA) and southpaw Cody Bradford (1.35 postseason ERA) as potential piggyback options. Another point of intrigue surrounds second baseman Ketel Marte, who will look to extend his record-breaking playoff hitting streak to 20 consecutive games as he enters the day slashing .333/.362/.545 this postseason. Tonight’s game is slated to begin at 7:03pm CT.

2. Rangers dealing with uncertainty following injuries:

Even as the Rangers took a 2-1 lead in the World Series last night, however, they too face considerable uncertainty going forward. That’s thanks to injuries sustained by two of their key players: outfielder and ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia, who walked off Game 1 of the World Series with an 11th-inning homer but departed yesterday’s game with a left side issue; and veteran right-hander Max Scherzer, who departed his start last night after three innings due to back spasms.

While Garcia underwent an MRI last night, with Rangers manager Bruce Bochy indicating (as relayed by Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) that the club is “optimistic” regarding their slugger, the chances of Scherzer making another appearance during the series appear far murkier. While Scherzer has indicated he’ll have a better idea of whether or not he can take the mound for Game 7 on Wednesday, it’s fair to wonder if Texas can afford to wait that long before bringing a fresh arm in to replace Scherzer, particularly given the fact that they club is scheduled to play both today and tomorrow.

3. Surgeries for Walls, Cobb could complicate offseason plans:

Both Rays shortstop Taylor Walls and Giants right-hander Alex Cobb were announced yesterday to be undergoing hip surgery. Cobb figures to miss at least the beginning of the 2024 campaign, while Walls is expected to resume baseball activities in February. That puts Opening Day 2024 into down for the infielder, though the Rays are reportedly optimistic about his chances of being ready for the start of the regular season. On the heels of those surgeries, both the Giants and Rays figure to have their offseason to-do lists impacted.

The Giants, now without any surefire starting options beyond Logan Webb for Opening Day 2024, figure to look for starting pitching options this winter aided by a deep class of starting options that includes NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto alongside the likes of Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. The Rays, on the other hand, figure to shore up their infield depth this offseason following the loss of Walls, though the free agent crop of shortstop-capable infielders is far less inspiring, with the likes of Amed Rosario and Paul DeJong among the available options.

Dodgers Notes: Martinez, Ohtani, Burnes, Heyward, Betts

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Perhaps one of the most interesting dilemmas facing the Dodgers as they turn toward the coming offseason is the pending free agency of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After signing with the club on a one-year, $10MM deal this past offseason, Martinez posted his best offensive season since 2019. In 479 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, Martinez slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+ that ranked 16th among all hitters with 450 plate appearances this season.

That sort of offensive production would normally make extending Martinez a qualifying offer something of a no-brainer for Andrew Friedman and his front office; after all, both Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times suggest that multi-year offers could be on the table for Martinez in free agency, with Ardaya in particular suggesting that Martinez is likely to receive more than the approximate one-year, $20.5MM deal a QO would provide. That being said, the situation is more complicated than it might seem on the surface. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco spoke about on last week’s episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, the possibility of Martinez accepting the QO could complicate matters for LA.

After all, it’s no secret that the Dodgers are expected to pursue top free agent and two-way star Shohei Ohtani this offseason. After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani will be relegated to DH-exclusive duties in 2024. That means that if the club rosters both Martinez and Ohtani next year, the Dodgers would either have to play him in the outfield, where he’s played just 12 innings the past two seasons and last played regularly in 2017, or else utilize him as a $20.5MM bench bat, an exorbitant cost for even a high-payroll LA club. What’s more, there’s reason to believe Martinez could accept the offer. After all, the veteran slugger is entering his age-36 season in 2024 and missed time in August due to a nagging groin injury. Given his age and health issues this season, it’s at least conceivable that his market may not wind up being as robust as his fantastic offensive numbers would otherwise suggest.

Speaking of Ohtani, Harris notes that signing the winter’s No. 1 free agent will be a “top priority” for the Dodgers. Since the three-time All-Star will not take the mound next season, he cannot satisfy the team’s need for starting pitching in 2024. Still, the Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history. According to Harris, the club is “cautiously optimistic” about its chances of landing the superstar, although he quickly adds that it’s “anyone’s guess” what factors Ohtani will value the most as he looks for his next contract; even members of the Dodgers front office are unsure what it will take to land the presumptive AL MVP. LA can offer a high salary and the chance to contend for a title, but Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he can certainly afford to be choosy.

On the topic of starting pitching, Harris also mentions that the Dodgers are expected to target Corbin Burnes should the Brewers look to trade the former Cy Young winner. Not long ago, Burnes seemed like a probable trade candidate, given the sizeable raise he’s likely to earn in arbitration and his forthcoming free agency following the 2024 campaign. However, with the news that Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss most (if not all) of the upcoming season, the Brewers might be more hesitant to part with Burnes. Nevertheless, if the star right-hander is, in fact, on the trading block, the Dodgers could be a good match.

Turning back to position players, it comes as little surprise that there is mutual interest between the Dodgers and veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. About a month ago, Harris reported on the reciprocal admiration betwixt Heyward and his Dodgers teammates, and today he notes, “there is believed to be mutual interest” between the former All-Star and the team that helped spark his late-career turnaround. What is slightly more surprising is the fact that superstar Mookie Betts is expected to play a significant amount of second base again next year, potentially freeing up playing time for Heyward in the outfield.

Betts came up as a second baseman, but he became a full-time outfielder during his sophomore season in 2015. He has since won six Gold Gloves for his work in right field, compiling 148 Defensive Runs Saved and 56 Outs Above Average in ten seasons as an outfielder. The versatile athlete that he is, Betts was more than capable of filling in at second base (and shortstop) in 2023, despite not having played more than ten games a year in the infield since his rookie campaign. However, the advanced defensive metrics were mixed on his performance at second, and his powerful arm is undoubtedly a stronger asset in the outfield. While his flexibility is valuable, it’s hard to imagine his best position is anything but right field.

The Dodgers could still pursue some infield help this winter, thereby pushing Betts back into a full-time outfield role. That said, the free agent market for outfielders is significantly deeper, with Heyward just one of many options. Moreover, Betts has made it quite clear he’s comfortable playing second, and evidently, the Dodgers are happy with that arrangement, too. It might not be his best position, but it could be what’s best for the team in 2024.

Jacob Barnes Elects Free Agency

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Right-handed pitcher Jacob Barnes has cleared outright waivers and elected free agency, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. This move frees up another spot on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster, which now has six open spaces. However, the team still has five players on the 60-day injured list who will require a 40-man spot in the offseason.

Barnes was released by the Rangers and Phillies organizations in 2023 before signing a minor league deal with the Cardinals in July. The big league team selected his contract in August, and he spent the rest of the season on the active roster, appearing in 13 games and pitching to a 5.93 ERA in a low-leverage relief role. He struck out eight and walked three while giving up 18 hits in 13 2/3 innings.

At 33 years old, Barnes is an eight-year MLB veteran, having spent time with the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, Yankees, and Cardinals. He also pitched in the minors for the Phillies and Rangers. Across 265 career games, he has seven saves, 33 holds, and a 4.76 ERA.

The veteran right-hander is now eligible to sign with a new organization – perhaps the 12th of his professional career, or perhaps a reunion with one of his previous clubs. Although he isn’t much more than an innings eater out of the bullpen, Barnes is a durable and capable big league arm. He has made double-digit appearances in each of the past eight MLB seasons, and he should be able to find a team to help him make it nine.

Max Scherzer, Adolis García Leave World Series Game 3 With Injuries

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10:26 pm: Max Scherzer told reporters after the game, including Bob Nightengale of USA Today, that his back locked up ahead of the fourth inning. The spasm was unrelated to the batted ball that hit him in the back earlier in the game (per Alden González of ESPN). As reported by Levi Weaver of The Athletic, Scherzer has had this issue before; sometimes, it clears within two or three days, but on some occasions, it has been significantly worse. Thus, his availability for the rest of the series is up in the air.

García, meanwhile, is set to undergo an MRI, per Nightengale.

10:15 pm: Although the Rangers beat the Diamondbacks to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series, it wasn’t all good news for Texas on Monday night. Two of the club’s biggest stars left the game early with injuries: future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer and postseason hero Adolis García.

Scherzer took the mound in the bottom of the fourth, but he would leave the field without throwing another pitch. He held the Diamondbacks scoreless over three innings, needing just 36 pitches to get the first nine outs. However, as he began to warm up for the fourth, manager Bruce Bochy and a trainer came to the mound and walked the 39-year-old off the field. Soon after, the team announced that he had left the game with back tightness (per Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). Presumably, the injury was caused by a comebacker from Alek Thomas that hit him squarely in the back during the second inning.

Scherzer missed the first two series of the postseason as he continued to rehab from the teres major strain he suffered during the regular season. He returned for the ALCS, but after a couple of rough outings, he told reporters (including David Lennon of Newsday) that a cut on his thumb was affecting his performance. Now, yet another injury has prevented the long-time ace from pitching like his typical self in the playoffs. It remains unclear if he will be available for a potential Game 7, should the series reach that point.

Jon Gray was lights out in relief of Scherzer, pitching three scoreless innings of his own, striking out three, and giving up just one hit. He collected the win, the first postseason victory of his career. Unfortunately, that means he won’t be available for Game 4 tomorrow; previously, he had seemed like the leading candidate to get the start. Now, it’s likely that Bochy will hand the ball to one of Dane Dunning or Andrew Heaney, although the leash will be short for either one.

García exited later in the game with tightness in his left side (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). He seemed to hurt himself on a bad swing, as he flew out to end the eighth. While the Rangers have not yet provided more specific details about his injury (presumably, he needs to undergo some tests), it seems likely the problem is in his oblique. That could be bad news for the Rangers offense, of which García has been, perhaps, the most productive performer. Entering Game 3, he was leading his team in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, and RBI in the postseason.

Alex Cobb To Undergo Hip Surgery

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Alex Cobb will undergo surgery on his left hip labrum tomorrow, the Giants announced to reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The surgery will also address the impingement issues that ended his 2023 season midway through September. The right-hander will need approximately six months to return to pitching, to say nothing of his readiness for the major leagues. That puts his earliest return at some point in May 2024.

The 36-year-old was a valuable contributor to the Giants’ rotation before his season came to an early end, making 28 starts with a 3.87 ERA. He pitched especially well in the first half, posting a 2.91 ERA through 16 starts and making the first All-Star Game of his 12-year career. Unfortunately, his performance was rather uneven in the second half; he threw a complete game gem on August 29, but he also failed to escape the fifth inning on three separate occasions. Presumably, the nagging issues in his hip were affecting his stuff down the stretch.

Cobb has a $10MM team option for next season, with a $2MM buyout. Before this latest update, it seemed like a no-brainer the Giants would pick up the option (Pavlovic notes they were indeed planning to do so), and it remains the most likely course of action. If Cobb returns in May and pitches like he has over his first two seasons with San Francisco, a net $8MM will be a small price for the Giants to pay.

Still, with Cobb on the shelf, the Giants’ need for starting pitching only intensifies. Logan Webb will be an anchor atop the rotation next season, but the team is lacking trustworthy options behind its ace. Alex Wood is a free agent. Sean Manaea, who pitched to a 4.44 ERA (but a 4.18 xERA and 3.83 SIERA) in 117 2/3 innings between the rotation and bullpen, can opt out of his contract after the World Series. Meanwhile, Ross Stripling has already said he doesn’t plan to exercise his opt-out clause, but that’s only because he pitched too poorly in 2023 to command a better deal on the open market. In 22 games (11 starts), the veteran righty posted a 5.36 ERA, a 5.58 xERA, and a 4.13 SIERA.

Anthony DeSclafani, 33, is under contract through next season. He made 19 appearances (18 starts) in 2023, pitching to a 4.88 ERA, a 5.16 xERA, and a 4.37 SIERA. On top of his mediocre results, he spent most of the second half on the injured list with a flexor strain, marking his second straight injury-plagued campaign. Barring a setback, he should be ready for spring training next year, but he hardly seems like a reliable option for a mid-rotation role.

The Giants also have some promising young arms, but none have proven themselves ready to play a major role in the big league rotation. Top prospect Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut in August, joining the starting staff for the final six weeks of the season. His 4.15 ERA was impressive for a 22-year-old rookie, but his 4.45 SIERA and 4.48 xERA suggest he still has plenty of room for improvement. Meanwhile, 25-year-old Keaton Winn struggled his way through five starts in his rookie season, posting a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings pitched. Tristan Beck could get a shot in the rotation, too, although he had success pitching out of the bullpen in 2023. Finally, prospects like Carson Whisenhunt, Landen Roupp, and Mason Black have yet to make their big league debuts.

Thus, the Giants should be active on the starting pitching market this winter. They have signed numerous starters to eight-figure deals over the past two offseasons, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they look to add multiple starters once again.

Taylor Walls Undergoes Hip Surgery

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7:53 pm: While the Rays are not prepared to say that Walls will be ready for Opening Day, his manager is “optimistic” he could be back for the start of the 2024 season, per Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times.

“If he’s running before he comes into spring training, that would be a very good sign,” said Kevin Cash. Still, the skipper cautioned that it’s too soon to know for sure: “I think we’ll know more in a month.” 

2:51 pm: The Rays announced this afternoon (as relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that shortstop Taylor Walls underwent a surgical procedure on his right hip today. The procedure aimed to relieve discomfort due to an impingement and repair a tear in the labrum of the hip. Per the Rays, Walls is expected to be ready for baseball activities in February, though his readiness for Opening Day won’t be clear until he returns to baseball activities and a timeline can be established.

It’s an incredibly unfortunate development for the Rays. Walls, 27, emerged as the club’s primary shortstop down the stretch in 2023 following the placement of star shortstop Wander Franco on administrative leave while the league investigated allegations against Franco of inappropriate relationships with multiple minors. While Walls hit well early in the season, slashing .244/.349/.481 in his first 152 trips to the plate, he struggled the rest of the way, slashing just .169/.270/.221 with a 27.9% strikeout rate over his final 197 plate appearances.

Despite that downturn in offensive production, Walls still looked to be in line for the lion’s share of time at shortstop entering next year, pending a decision on Franco’s situation. Walls, a finalist of the utility Gold Glove award in the AL, saw his glove work around the infield praised by Defensive Runs Saved (+10 DRS) but panned by Outs Above Average (-6).

The Rays have a few other options at shortstop in the event that the everyday job remains vacant headed into Opening Day. Youngsters Junior Caminero, Osleivis Basabe, and Vidal Brujan are all already on the 40-man roster, though none of the group have found success in the major leagues to this point in their careers. Caminero’s .235/.278/.353 slash line in a brief 36-PA cup of coffee was the best major-league performance among that trio by measure of wRC+. Given that reality, the club may be best served looking for an external shortstop option to provide depth at the position via free agency.

Such an addition may be easier said than done, however. After all, the Rays are already due to stretch the club’s budget in 2024, with RosterResource projecting the club for a $120MM payroll that exceeds their 2023 figure by more than $50MM. The club may have already been poised to shed salary by moving on from the likes of Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, and perhaps even Tyler Glasnow, but such a move seems all the more likely if the Rays are forced to commit additional resources to shortstop in 2024. Quality shortstop options are few and far between in free agency this offseason, with the likes of Amed Rosario, Paul DeJong, and Gio Urshela representing some of the best options available.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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