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Twins Notes: Gray, Maeda, Keuchel, Larnach, Kirilloff, Thielbar

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A five-game losing streak has dropped the Twins’ record to 54-53, and their AL Central lead has shrunk to a half-game advantage over the Guardians.  Caught in an unusual position of both trying to win the division and perhaps reload the roster for a better shot at contending in 2024, the Twins appear to be flexible with their plans heading into the trade deadline, as The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the club is at least listening to offers about starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda.  However, “they’d need to be blown away to make a deal that potentially harms their own postseason chances,” Hayes writes, since starting pitching has been such a key plank of the Twins’ success this year.

Reports from earlier this week suggested that Minnesota had at least considered moving Maeda, and that the Twins were getting interest in general about their rotation depth.  Since it would count as a major shock if any of Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober were traded, pending free agents Gray and Maeda seem like far more viable trade candidates, even if the odds of either moving don’t seem too high.

As Hayes notes, there’s no harm for Minnesota in testing the market for Gray or Maeda, just in case a team desperate for starting pitching is willing to overpay as other options are removed from the board as the deadline approaches.  Re-signing both Gray and Maeda this winter doesn’t seem likely whatsoever, and it seems quite possible that the Twins might let both veteran pitchers walk in free agency.  Ergo, exploring trade opportunities now is a logical tactic, especially if another team is willing to offer the right-handed hitting or bullpen help that the Twins are currently looking to obtain.

Dallas Keuchel has looked great for Triple-A Saint Paul since signing a minor league deal with the Twins back in June, as the former AL Cy Young Award winner has a 1.13 ERA over 32 innings.  Since Keuchel has an opt-out clause in his contract on August 1 (trade deadline day), some kind of decision is coming soon, and Keuchel could be the logical replacement if Minnesota did move Gray or Maeda.  In terms of Keuchel himself as a trade chip, Hayes writes that there is only “minimal interest” from other clubs, which isn’t surprising given how Keuchel’s MLB results have so badly tailed off in the last two seasons.  The southpaw has a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2021 campaign, and he has yet to see any big league action in 2023.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said earlier this week that the club’s left-handed hitting outfielders were drawing interest, and Hayes reports that Trevor Larnach in particular has been on the radar of the Mets and Padres.  Larnach is only a couple of years removed from being a top-100 prospect, though he has a modest .223/.315/.380 slash line over 669 career plate appearances.  This lack of performance and a season-ending core muscle surgery in 2022 have kept Larnach from really establishing himself in the majors, not to mention how the Twins’ outfield depth has led to Larnach spending a lot of extra time at Triple-A.

Since Larnach is only 26 and has a limited sample size of MLB experience, it makes sense why the Padres, Mets, and probably several other teams would want to bet on a post-hype breakout.  It’s worth noting that Larnach hadn’t hit very much in Triple-A prior to this season, and even his .234/.363/.431 slash line over 157 PA for Saint Paul in 2023 is only decent, rather than a clear sign that Larnach has nothing more to prove in the minors.

With the Mets already looking ahead to 2024, a hypothetical New York/Minnesota trade package could include a right-handed hitting outfielder like Tommy Pham or Mark Canha, or reliever Brooks Raley.  All would essentially be rental pickups, though Canha and Raley are controllable through club options for the 2024 season.  Raley has pitched well enough that his $6.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) looks like a good bet to be exercise by the Mets, Twins, or whatever team might own his rights after the deadline.

Of course, injuries can always change the equation for any team as the deadline approaches, and the Twins placed Alex Kirilloff on the 10-day injured list today due to a right shoulder strain.  Caleb Thielbar was activated from the 15-day IL in the corresponding move, with the left-hander returning after missing close to two months with an oblique strain.  This came on the heels of a previous IL stint due to another oblique problem, resulting in Thielbar making only one big league appearance since May 6.

Kirilloff has been trying to play through the injury for several days, as manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Kirilloff was hurt diving for a ball.  Kirilloff is “just not able to swing the bat right now because he’s feeling some weakness in his shoulder,” Baldelli said, so the decision was made to put the first baseman on the IL for a full rest.

Wrist problems have plagued Kirilloff in the past, and his recovery from a wrist surgery last year delayed his 2023 debut until May 6.  Finally healthy and given an extended chance to play, Kirilloff looked to be having a bit of a breakout season, with a very solid 124 wRC+ to show from his .270/.357/.442 slash line over 258 plate appearances while mostly playing as Minnesota’s regular first baseman.  Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo are likely to be platooned at first base while Kirilloff is out, and if the Twins get any indication over the next two days that Kirilloff might be facing an extended absence, first base help might be added to the club’s deadline checklist.

Yimi Garcia Reaches Vesting Threshold, Guarantees 2024 Salary

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Yimi Garcia’s appearance in the Blue Jays’ 3-2 loss to the Angels today marked the right-hander’s 49th game of the season, and his 110th game of his two seasons with Toronto.  As a result, Garcia triggered a vesting option in his contract that now guarantees him a $6MM salary in 2024.  The Jays had previously held a $5MM club option on Garcia for 2024, with a $1MM buyout.

The contract news provides some silver lining to an otherwise forgettable day for Garcia, as he allowed a two-run homer to Hunter Renfroe in the tenth inning that ended up being the game’s deciding run.  It was a blemish on what has otherwise been a solid season for Garcia, who turns 33 in August.  Garcia entered Sunday’s action with a 4.30 ERA over 44 innings, though a .369 BABIP may be responsible for that inflated ERA, as his SIERA is a far more impressive 3.01.

Though Garcia has had a few high-profile meltdowns this season, he has largely gotten back on track after a much shakier opening.  With a 6.46 ERA over his first 23 2/3 frames, Garcia then rebounded for a 1.77 ERA in his next 20 2/1 innings.  For 2023 as a whole, Garcia’s advanced metrics are quite strong, as he ranks above the league average in just about every  Statcast category.  His 5.2% walk rate is the highlight, ranking Garcia in the 90th percentile of all pitchers.

Toronto signed Garcia to a two-year, $11MM free agent deal in the 2021-22 offseason, which now becomes a three-year/$17MM pact due to the vested option.  Given his success thus far in 2023, it was becoming increasingly likely that the Jays would’ve exercised that club option anyway, but now Garcia is locked into a guaranteed salary for next season.  Several other Jays relievers are also controlled through at least 2024, though not via a guaranteed contract — the likes of Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Trevor Richards, Tim Mayza, and Genesis Cabrera are all still in their arbitration years.

Braves, Royals Swap Nicky Lopez, Taylor Hearn

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The Braves have acquired infielder Nicky Lopez from the Royals in a one-for-one swap that will send left-hander Taylor Hearn to Kansas City.  The Braves have officially announced the deal, and MLB.com’s Anne Rogers was the first to report that Lopez was on his way to Atlanta.

Like most Royals players this season, Lopez has had an underwhelming year with the bat, hitting .210/.322/.280 over 187  plate appearances.  Lopez’s hitting has never been as much of a calling card as his defense, and he has delivered his usual above-average glovework backing up the infield at second base, third base, and shortstop.

He’ll bring that same versatile depth to the Braves, though Lopez’s playing time figures to be at a premium since Atlanta generally keeps its starters (including the infield core of Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, and Austin Riley) in the lineup at all times, even to the point of usually foregoing late-game defensive substitutions.  Still, with a big lead in the NL West, the Braves might look to give their regulars some extra rest going into the postseason, and Lopez at least provides some experienced depth if case an injury situation does arise.

Now in his fifth MLB season, Lopez has largely been a glove-first player who has seemed like a bit of a placeholder as Kansas City waited for its next wave of prospects (such as Bobby Witt Jr.) to reach the Show.  However, Lopez worked his way into a larger share of playing time, particularly after his quietly outstanding 2021 campaign.  Lopez had the 11th-best fWAR (6.0) of any player in baseball that season, pairing spectacular defense and baserunning with an above-average .300/.365/.378 slash line over 565 plate appearances.

In hindsight, the Royals perhaps might have looked at selling high on Lopez in the wake of that big season, though it’s understandable why K.C. would’ve also wanted to hang onto a possible hidden gem of a breakout player.  Moving the 28-year-old now officially turns the page on Lopez’s era in Kansas City, even though he was still under team control through the 2025 campaign.  It’s not a bad pickup for the Braves to land a depth option who can help now and potentially in future years, though Lopez will be due a raise on his $3.7MM salary this winter, and might be a non-tender candidate if Atlanta wants to trim its list of arbitration-eligibles.

Hearn finds himself on the move for the second time in less than a week, as the Braves just picked up the southpaw on July 24 in another trade that sent cash considerations to the Rangers.  Given that Texas had designated Hearn for assignment prior to working out the deal with Atlanta, it is a little curious that the Royals are surrendering Lopez to acquire him now rather than acquiring him at a lower cost shortly after his first DFA.  It’s possible this could be a precursor to another move.  Hearn’s ability to work as a reliever or a starter could allow him to fill several holes in Kansas City’s pitching staff should the Royals be on the verge of dealing from their rotation or bullpen before Tuesday’s trade deadline.  Austin Cox is the only other left-hander in the Royals’ bullpen, so Hearn also fits a more immediate need.

Hearn’s tenure in Atlanta ends after a single ignominious appearance, as he allowed four runs in one-third of an inning in Saturday’s 11-5 win over the Brewers.  That gives him a 14.73 ERA in 7 1/3 total innings in 2023 with the Braves and Rangers, though Hearn’s 3.66 ERA in 39 1/3 innings for the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate is far more palatable.

Prior to Saturday, all of Hearn’s previous MLB experience had come with Texas, as he posted a 4.95 ERA over 222 innings from 2019-22 while starting 25 of his 88 games.  The lefty’s numbers as a reliever have been much better than his work out of the rotation, so a long relief role might be Hearn’s best option for the future.  Hearn doesn’t miss many bats (21.6% career strikeout rate), nor has he been great at limiting free passes, with a 10.5% walk rate over his time in the big leagues.

Rizzo: Nationals Have Eight Suitors For Jeimer Candelario

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo made an appearance on SiriusXM’s Front Office on MLBNetwork Radio this afternoon, where he discussed Washington’s deadline plans with hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette. As relayed by Bowden, Rizzo provided an update on the market for third baseman Jeimer Candelario, telling the duo that the club has eight teams in on the Nationals’ top trade chip. Rizzo further indicated that the club would “move fast” in getting a deal done once they’re offered the “right player” in exchange for Candelario’s services.

That the Nationals intend to move Candelario is hardly a surprise. He came in at #2 overall as the top position player on MLBTR’s recent update to our Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates, with both the Marlins and Angels known to have interest in his services. SNY’s Andy Martino also reported today that the Yankees have interest.

It’s not hard to see why Candelario has drawn such interest, as has paired excellent third base defense with a 121 wRC+ in 98 games this season. In addition to his quality defense at the hot corner, Candelario also has experience in the majors at first base. With Cody Bellinger now off the trade market, that makes Candelario the likely best player available at both infielder corners. Speculatively speaking, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Astros each could use help at the infield corners.

Rizzo also discussed the availability of right-hander Kyle Finnegan and outfielder Lane Thomas, who clocked in at #37 and #41 on our Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates list, respectively. Bowden relays that Rizzo indicated Finnegan has drawn interest from other clubs ahead of the deadline, and it’s easy to see why. Finnegan is controllable through 2025 and has been a solid arm in the Nationals’ bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020. Finnegan’s career 3.35 ERA and 4.10 FIP are right in line with his 3.07 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 44 innings of work this season as the Nationals’ top option for closing out games.

Thomas, who is under team control through the end of the 2025 season, has slashed a solid .286/.333/.474 in 104 games this season with a wRC+ of 116 while swiping 12 bases in 14 attempts, is not a player Rizzo appears particularly inclined to move, with Bowden relaying that the impetus to move Thomas would be help at a position of greater need than the outfield, where the club sports top prospects James Wood, Robert Hassell, Dylan Crews, and Elijah Green.

Blue Jays Acquire Jordan Hicks

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The Blue Jays landed one of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the trade market Sunday, announcing the acquisition of righty Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals in exchange for Double-A right-handers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. In a corresponding roster move, Toronto designated righty Mitch White for assignment. Hicks had previously been reported to be discussing an extension with the Cardinals ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, though those discussions seemingly stalled out earlier in the week.

Hicks, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2015 draft by the Cardinals. He made his big league debut back in 2018 and threw 77 2/3 innings in his first big league season, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.74 FIP. While he generated an impressive 60.7% groundball rate in his rookie campaign, he posted a lackluster 20.6% strikeout rate and struggled badly with his control to the point of walking 13.3% of batters faced. Early on in his sophomore 2019 season, Hicks required Tommy John surgery. That surgery began a series of injuries and setbacks that would limit him to just 38 2/3 innings of work from 2019-21.

Finally fully healthy in 2022, the Cardinals decided to try using Hicks as a member of the rotation. That experiment did not go well, as Hicks posted a 5.84 ERA and 5.54 FIP in 24 2/3 innings of work across seven starts while walking a whopping 16% of batters faced over that stretch. While he pitched a bit better upon returning to the bullpen, he nonetheless finished the 2022 campaign with 4.84 ERA and 13.3% walk rate in 61 1/3 innings of work.

The 2023 campaign started off difficultly for Hicks once again, as he yielded a whopping nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings of work in his first seven appearances of the year. Since then, however, he’s settled in as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past few months. Since April 18, Hicks sports a 2.25 ERA and a sterling 1.92 FIP in 36 innings of work. He’s cut his walk rate to 10.4% in that time, a figure that, while somewhat elevated, is more than made up for by a phenomenal 34.4% strikeout rate. Hicks also sports a characteristically excellent 58.3% groundball rate this season, a figure that has led him to allow just two home runs all season, and none since he got his season back on track in mid-April.

Hicks’s dominant arm makes him a perfect candidate for Toronto’s bullpen, as the Blue Jays lost closer Jordan Romano to the 15-day injured list earlier this weekend thanks to lower back inflammation. While it’s possible Romano will return fairly quickly after the minimum 15-day stint, he’s been plagued by the issue since it caused him to depart the All Star game earlier this month. Still, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Blue Jays take additional time to ensure their closer is fully healthy upon his return given both the nagging nature of the issue and the importance of Romano, who leads the AL with 28 saves this season and sports a 2.79 ERA in 42 innings this season, to the club’s success.

In return for Hicks’s services, the Blue Jays are paying a hefty prospect toll. Robberse appears to be the headliner in the deal as the club’s seventh-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline and their sixth-best prospect according to Fangraphs. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2019, the 21-year-old hurler sports a 92-94 mph fastball, quality secondary offerings in both a changeup and a slider, and plus command. In 113 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level, Robberse owns a 3.97 ERA and a strikeout rate of 22%.

Kloffenstein, meanwhile, goes unranked on both Pipeline’s and Fangraphs’s lists. Fangraphs describes Kloffenstein as a pitcher with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a sinker and a slider, though it ultimately pegs him as more of an innings-eating, depth starter type. That evaluation, however, is from prior to the 2023 campaign, where Kloffenstein has impressed to this point. Toronto’s third-round pick in the 2018 draft has shoved across 89 innings of work at Double-A this season to the tune of a 3.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%, a figure well above his career rate of 23.5% entering the 2023 campaign.

Both Kloffenstein and Robberse clearly fit the mold of return the Cardinals have reportedly been looking for in dangling their rental arms this summer: controllable, upper-level starting pitching prospects. Both Robberse and Kloffenstein project as starters going forward and have over 100 innings of experience at Double-A, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat noting that both hurlers are set to be promoted to Triple-A by the Cardinals organization. Given that promotion, it seems reasonable to assume both pitchers will be on the big league radar for sometime in 2024, barring injury or ineffectiveness changing the timeline.

The deal also spells the end of White’s time in Toronto. A second-round selection by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft, White impressed with a 3.44 ERA and 3.78 FIp in 49 2/3 innings of work across his first two seasons in the majors. He continued his success in a Dodgers uniform in 2022 with a 3.70 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 56 innings of work, but the club dealt White to Toronto at the trade deadline last season. Since joining the Blue Jays, White has struggled mightily, with a 7.60 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. While he posted a 4.03 FIP that far outstrips his results as a member of the Jays, his walk rate has ticked up to 11.7% this season, a level unlikely to be sustainable given his mediocre 21.7% strikeout rate. Going forward, Toronto will have one week to either waive or release White, assuming he himself isn’t traded before the deadline on August 1.

Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported that Hicks had been traded to Toronto. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Kloffenstein was part of the return. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Robberse’s inclusion in the deal.

Orioles Designate Eduard Bazardo For Assignment

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The Orioles have designated right-hander Eduard Bazardo for assignment, per a club announcement. In corresponding moves, the club has selected the contract of right-hander Joey Krehbiel and optioned right-hander Tyler Wells to Double-A Bowie.

Bazardo, 27, made his big league debut back in 2021 with the Red Sox, pitching for them in parts of two seasons. Bazardo then elected free agency after being designated for assignment in October 2022. That December, he landed with Baltimore on a minor league deal before being selected to the roster earlier this month. In all, Bazardo sports a career 3.74 ERA and 5.26 FIP in 21 2/3 innings in the majors. He’s posted similar numbers at the Triple-A level in his career, with a 3.86 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate in 107 innings of work at the level, which includes a strong 3.05 ERA in 38 1/3 innings with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk this season.

The Orioles have a week to trade, waive, or release Bazardo, though of course any trade would have to come prior to the trade deadline on August 1. In the event that Bazardo clears waivers successfully, the Orioles will have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues, though Bazardo has the right to reject that assignment as a player who’s been outrighted previously in his career.

Bazardo’s exit makes room for Krehbiel on the 40-man roster. A 12th-round pick by the Angels in the 2011 draft, Krehbiel broke into the majors with the Diamondbacks and the Rays before settling in with the Orioles midway through the 2021 campaign. He became a major piece of Baltimore’s bullpen in 2022, with a 3.90 ERA that clocked in at exactly league average by measure of ERA+.

While his work last season was certainly solid, Krehbiel was ultimately designated for assignment early in the 2023 season, before making an appearance at the major league level this season. He performed well at the Triple-A level this year after accepting an outright assignment, with a 3.00 ERA in 30 innings of work. That performance has earned Krehbiel another chance in the majors, where he figures to cover the middle innings for the Orioles alongside the likes of Bryan Baker and Shintaro Fujinami.

Perhaps the most surprising news of the day is the club’s decision to option Wells to make room for Krehbiel on the active roster. Wells has pitched fairly well as a member of the club’s rotation this season, with a 3.80 ERA in 113 2/3 innings of work. That quality run prevention figure belies his recent control problems, however. In the month of July, Wells has walked 13 batters in 21 innings, nearly as many as he’s struck out (16). That’s contributed to a 6.43 ERA and a 7.76 FIP this month, the latter of which has ballooned his FIP to a worrisome 5.17 figure on the season.

It’s unclear how long Wells figures to remain in the minor leagues, but his struggles and subsequent demotion highlight the club’s need for starting pitching ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. Only eight teams in the majors have gotten less fWAR out of their starters than Baltimore, and of those only the Yankees, Reds, and Red Sox have any hope of making the playoffs this season.

Cubs Outright Edwin Rios

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The Cubs have outrighted infielder Edwin Rios, according to Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. There had been no previous indication that Rios had been designated for assignment. Chicago’s 40-man roster drops to 39 as a result of the move. Rios has the requisite service time to reject an outright assignment, but would forfeit the remainder of his $1MM salary in doing so.

A sixth-round pick by the Dodgers in the 2015 draft, Rios made his big league debut with the club in 2019 and thrived in a bench role with LA, slashing a phenomenal .260/.338/.634 in 139 plate appearances across his first two seasons in the majors. The following two seasons, however, weren’t as fruitful. From 2021-22, Rios battled hamstring and shoulder injuries while slashing just .183/.263/.365 in 152 plate appearances. That combination of injuries and ineffectiveness led the Dodgers to non-tender Rios this past offseason.

Upon departing LA Rios joined the Cubs, who signed him to a $1MM major league deal in hopes of Rios providing lefty power off the bench for the club. Things didn’t go according to plan for Rios or Chicago, however, as the now 29-year-old slugger slashed just .071/.235/.214 with a massive 47.1% strikeout rate in 34 trips to the plate. That performance was enough for the Cubs to demote Rios to Triple-A for most of the 2023 campaign despite the small sample size.

Now, more than a month removed from Rios’s last big league appearance, he’s off the 40-man roster entirely. Assuming he opts to accept his outright assignment in order to retain the remainder of his salary, Rios figures to serve as a depth bench option for the Cubs’ infield, though he’s blocked by the likes of Matt Mervis and Miles Mastrobuoni, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.

Cubs Take Cody Bellinger Off Trade Market

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The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.

Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.

Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.

While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.

With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.

While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.

That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.

That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.

While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Rangers Interested In Further Pitching Additions

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Even after acquiring future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer in a blockbuster deal with the Mets last night, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand indicates the Rangers are not done adding to their pitching staff. Texas is reportedly looking to add a reliever or two or their relief corps and are also interested in adding to the bottom of the rotation.

An additional starting option would certainly make sense for Texas. While Nathan Eovaldi (2.69 ERA in 19 starts) and Scherzer create a strong top 2 at the front of the rotation, southpaws Martin Perez and Andrew Heaney have combined for a concerning 4.81 ERA in 40 starts this season. Righties Dane Dunning and Jon Gray both have stronger numbers for the season, Gray has posted a 6.49 ERA in his past seven starts while Dunning’s best work this season has come as a member of the bullpen.

While Feinsand doesn’t connect specific names to the Rangers, Justin McWilliams of the Boston Globe notes that the club has been scouting Red Sox left-hander James Paxton. Paxton, 34, came into the season with a 6.65 ERA in 21 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season. He dealt with back and forearm issues towards the end of his tenure with the Yankees before requiring Tommy John surgery in 2021. Separate injuries, including a late-season hamstring strain, slowed his rehab process and prevented him from returning to the mound with Boston in 2022.

Since making a healthy return to the mound in the middle of May this season, however, Paxton has looked like a quality, playoff-caliber starter. In 70 innings of work across 13 starts this season, Paxton has posted a 3.34 ERA that’s 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a 3.61 FIP. His 28.4% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate are both a touch better than his career norms and while his .269 BABIP is noticeably lower than his career .302 figure, Paxton would be a significant upgrade to Texas’s rotation, or that of virtually any contender.

Of course, it’s an open question as to whether or not the Red Sox would actually move Paxton ahead of Tuesday’s deadline. After all, Boston sports a solid 56-48 record. While that puts them in fourth place in the AL East and seven games back of the division lead, they’re just 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot even with the likes of Trevor Story, Chris Sale, and Tanner Houck on the injured list.

While the Red Sox have already made one “sell-side” trade so far this July, last week’s deal that sent utilityman Enrique Hernandez to the Dodgers doesn’t seem particularly indicative of the club’s future plans. After all, the trade came in the midst of a brutal season on Hernandez’s part and at a time when the Red Sox are flush deep with middle infield options: Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, and Pablo Reyes are all on the roster with Justin Turner also chipping in at second base and Story nearing a return to action.

Should Paxton wind up unavailable, there’s still plenty of other options for the Rangers to consider in looking to upgrade their pitching staff. Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, and Jack Flaherty are among the starters who seem likely to move, to say nothing of the possibility that the Padres or Cubs opt to sell and dangle an arm like Blake Snell or Marcus Stroman. As for relief options, right-handers Jordan Hicks, Scott Barlow, Chris Stratton, and Paul Sewald all appear in the top 15 of MLBTR’s most recent Top 50 Trade Candidates list. So too does relief ace Josh Hader, though his availability is contingent on San Diego opting to sell just as Snell’s is.

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