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Padres Reportedly Willing To Listen To Offers On Juan Soto; Trade Seen As Unlikely

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The Padres have signaled a willingness to hear trade offers on Juan Soto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman writes that San Diego is also open to overtures on Blake Snell and Josh Hader, though he reiterates the Friars’ preference would be to add to the roster before next Tuesday’s deadline.

For myriad reasons, it seems very unlikely the Padres would move Soto in the coming days. They’re only a year removed from acquiring him and Josh Bell in perhaps the biggest deadline blockbuster ever, sending CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and top prospects James Wood and Robert Hassell III as part of the package to Washington. Pivoting to deal him away within a year would represent a major change in direction for a franchise that has rapidly escalated payroll and seemed hellbent on collecting as many stars as possible.

San Diego chairman Peter Seidler went on record at the start of July to say the organization wasn’t “going to reverse course” from that aggressiveness. Obviously, the Friars haven’t pulled out of their middling performance in the few weeks since then, but a Soto trade would run directly contrary to that message.

Indeed, Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote just two days ago that the Padres had been rebuffing offers on Hader and Snell. Moving Soto — who is eligible for arbitration for a season beyond this one — would require a significant change of heart. There’s been a little more chatter of late about the possibility of Hader and Snell coming available (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also suggested as much this morning), but they’re more logical trade candidates than Soto since they’re both headed to free agency after this season.

San Diego, owner of a 49-54 record, faces a double-digit game deficit in the NL West. They’re 6.5 out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to surpass. Their place in the standings makes a run at the postseason this year unlikely, though certainly not impossible. It’s hard to envision this club kicking off any kind of longer-term retool and a Soto trade would obviously deal a huge hit to their 2024 lineup.

While Soto got off to a slow start to the season by his own huge standards, he’s looked like himself over the past few months. He owns a .286/.434/.548 line since the start of May and carries a .262/.417/.501 slash overall. There’d clearly be enormous interest if the Friars were to genuinely market the three-time All-Star. It seems they’re currently open to offers more so as a matter of due diligence than any kind of eagerness to deal him.

Whether to move the impending free agents or push in more chips in hopes of an excellent second half could be determined in large part by their next few games. The Padres have four more outings before the deadline: a three-game set at home against the division-leading Rangers, then the first contest of a series in Colorado.

Dodgers Have Discussed Nolan Arenado Trade With Cardinals

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The Dodgers have engaged the Cardinals in trade talks for Nolan Arenado, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but Castillo reports that Arenado, a Southern California native, is willing to waive that right only if it means going to the Dodgers. It’s unclear if those talks made any progress or if a deal is close but the Cardinals are under no obligation to move Arenado, since he has four more years on his contract and they plan on contending again next year, but the Dodgers do have young pitching that they need. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays word from Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe, who says that the report Arenado is only willing to waive his no-trade for the Dodgers is “inaccurate.”

It’s hardly surprising that the Dodgers would be interested in Arenado, who has been one of the game’s premier players for quite some time. He’s launched 321 home runs in his career and has produced a batting line of .288/.345/.534 for a wRC+ of 122, dating back to his 2013 debut. He’s done that while providing elite defense at the hot corner, having racked up 151 Defensive Runs Saved in his career, as well as 90 Outs Above Average and a 73.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. He already has a career tally of 48.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 54.1 from Baseball Reference.

The Cardinals are having a disappointing season, having fallen to 46-57 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted a couple of weeks ago that the club would have to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 club. However, he also maintained that moving a key player like Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t in their plans. “I don’t have any intentions of trading anybody like them,” he said, before leaving the door open to an offer that could change his mind. “If you’re willing to listen on anything, you have to understand (anything’s possible), but I doubt that would happen.”

To be clear, the Dodgers having interest in Arenado doesn’t mean the Cards are under any obligation to make a deal. As Mozeliak mentioned, they are willing to listen on anything. All indications have pointed to the Cardinals planning on moving short-term pieces and reloading for 2024 around a similar position player core but with a retooled pitching staff. Perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching talent to make a deal happen, but that’s still not clear at this point.

The Dodgers are 58-43, holding a three-game lead in the West and are clearly in buyer position. They’ve already added a couple of complementary pieces in Enrique Hernández and Amed Rosario but a big push for Arenado would obviously be a move in a different stratosphere.

The club has used players like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor at third base for much of this year, though both players are also capable of playing other positions and Castillo reports it’s possible that one or both of them could end up going to St. Louis in the potential deal. Muncy has long been a three-true-outcomes leader, hitting plenty of home runs while frequently walking and striking out. He’s continuing that this year, hitting 25 home runs while slashing .197/.329/.478 for a wRC+ of 118. However, he’s more of a bat-first option at third, having produced subpar defensive grades this year. The Dodgers hold a club option for his services in 2024 set at $10MM with no buyout.

Taylor spent many years as an above-average hitter who could play just about anywhere on the diamond. He reached free agency after 2021 and re-signed with the Dodgers on a four-year, $60MM contract but has seen his offensive performance slip. He hit .265/.343/.461 from 2017 to 2021 but just .219/.297/.399 since the start of last year. Despite the diminished production, he’s still been able to slot into every position except for first base and the battery. He still has two years and $26MM remaining on his deal after this year.

Arenado would undoubtedly be an upgrade over either of those two players, though the Dodgers would have to part with something to make it happen. The Cardinals have long been known to be in need of long-term starting pitching since Adam Wainwright is set to retire while both Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are impending free agents and likely to wind up traded in the coming days. Steven Matz is a question mark after getting bumped to the bullpen earlier in the year, only recently retaking a starting job. Depth options like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Connor Thomas haven’t had great years either, leaving Miles Mikolas as the sole building block in next year’s rotation.

Young and controllable pitching is the something the Dodgers could offer, even some with some major league experience. Multiple injuries to their starting staff this year have forced them up push prospects up to the majors, including Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove. That group would have also included Ryan Pepiot, though he suffered an oblique strain on the verge of Opening Day and has been on the injured list since, only beginning a rehab assignment this month.

Miller, 24, has a 4.28 ERA through 10 starts, striking out 23.2% of hitters while walking 7% and getting grounders at a 45.5% clip. Sheehan, 23, has a 6.75 ERA through his six outings while Grove, 26, is at 6.19 this year. Each of those three and Pepiot were generally considered among the club’s 30 best prospects coming into the season and they all come with years of cheap control. Castillo’s report suggests the Cardinals have interest in all four.  Moving them would leave the Dodgers with diminished pitching depth, but perhaps they could patch that over by acquiring veteran rentals for the stretch run, with Clayton Kershaw potentially returning at some point later in the year. The Dodgers reportedly had interest in rental starter Lucas Giolito prior to him being traded to the Angels yesterday, and Castillo’s report speculates they could be interested in getting Flaherty or Montgomery from the Cardinals as well.

The Cardinals surely have some level of interest in each of those, given their dire need for pitching, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re willing to move on from Arenado in order to acquire them. The two sides have long seen committed to each other, with Arenado even forgoing an opt-out opportunity at the end of last season. He likely could have topped the five years and $144MM remaining on his deal but decided to stay in St. Louis instead. He will still have four more years and $109MM left on that deal at the end of this year.

That would be a hefty salary for the Dodgers to take on as they are already over the competitive balance tax and will likely be trying to sign Shohei Ohtani to a record-breaking deal this winter, like many other teams. Perhaps they could balance some of that out by including Muncy or Taylor in the deal, though that would depend how much the Cardinals value those veteran players compared to the younger starters.

Arenado departing St. Louis would leave a hole at third base in St. Louis going forward, though Muncy or Taylor could theoretically help fill that. Leaving those two aside, the Cardinals have many multi-positional players like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, who have each played some third this year. Tommy Edman hasn’t played there this year but has in the past. He might be needed at shortstop if Paul DeJong winds up traded this week, though prospect Masyn Winn is in Triple-A and could slot in there in the near future.

It’s worth reiterating that teams often discuss all kinds of trade scenarios and there’s been nothing to suggest anything is close to completion here. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat straight up denies that Arenado is being traded and, as mentioned up top, Arenado’s agent has denied the report about his no-trade clause. The Cardinals and Dodgers make sense as potential trade partners since one has short-term pitching but needs long-term, and the other the opposite. It would be natural for the Dodgers to at least ask about other players in those talks. Mozeliak has said in the past that the Cardinals, despite doing some selling, weren’t looking to move key players like Arenado. He did say they are willing to listen on anything, so perhaps the Dodgers have enough young pitching to make them think about it, but time will tell.

Brewers Acquire Carlos Santana

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4:00pm: The Brewers have now officially announced the deal.

2:06pm: The Brewers and Pirates are in agreement on an intra-division trade that’ll send first baseman Carlos Santana from Pittsburgh to Milwaukee, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). Minor league infielder Jhonny Severino is headed back to the Pirates in the deal.

Santana, 37, signed a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $6.725MM in Pittsburgh over the offseason. He’s still owed about $2.42MM of that sum between now and season’s end. Milwaukee has a need at first base with Rowdy Tellez on the injured list, and the veteran Santana has outplayed Tellez this season anyhow.

In 393 trips to the plate, the switch-hitting Santana is batting .235/.321/.412 with a dozen homers, 25 doubles and six stolen bases. He’s been almost exactly league average at the plate (99 wRC+), whereas Tellez has struggled to a .213/.285/.388 batting line in 288 trips to the plate. Santana is also one of the game’s top defensive first baseman; despite the fact that he’s never won a Gold Glove, he’s amassed 17 career Defensive Runs Saved and 20 Outs Above Average at first base — including respective marks of plus-6 and plus-2 in 2023. Tellez has graded below average (-1 DRS, -3 OAA).

Santana has been particularly productive at the plate as the season has shifted to summer. Dating back to June 1, he’s hitting .244/.319/.470 with nine of his 12 homers and 11 of his 25 doubles. He’s sporting a characteristically strong walk rate (11.5%) against a lower-than-average strikeout rate (17.6%) and has nearly identical platoon splits on the season. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold spoke this week about not wanting to subtract from the team’s defense in order to improve the lineup, and acquiring Santana gives the Crew a solid bat and improved defense at one of their weakest positions this season.

In Tellez’s absence, Milwaukee has been deploying utilityman Owen Miller at first base. The right-handed-hitting Miller has performed reasonably well, batting .266/.305/.378 with above-average defense at multiple positions. The acquisition of Santana will allow him to revert to a multi-position role, slotting in at second and third base in addition to occasional time around the outfield.

In return for the final few months of Santana’s 2023 season, the Pirates will acquire the 18-year-old Severino — one of Milwaukee’s top signings during the 2021-22 international free agency period. Severino has played in parts of two minor league seasons since signing, turning in a combined .264/.324/.432 batting line with seven homers, 13 doubles, a pair of triples and 15 stolen bases. He’s walked at a six percent clip in his young professional career and fanned in 26% of his plate appearances — most of which have come against older and more advanced competition. He opened the 2023 season with the Brewers’ affiliate in the Arizona Complex League, where he’s about two years younger than the average player.

Both Baseball America and MLB.com ranked Severino among the top 30 prospects in the 2021-22 international class, and the Brewers accordingly paid him a $1.23MM bonus at the time of his signing. BA’s Ben Badler touted the switch-hitting Severino as an offensive-minded infielder who’d likely end up moving off shortstop but has plus raw power from both sides of the dish and an advanced hit tool as a right-handed bat. MLB.com’s report on him noted his above-average arm strength and strong frame, all of which could point to a third base profile. Of course, as a teenager who’s just now getting going in Rookie ball, Severino is years away from having any sort of impact at the MLB level. He’ll add some power potential to the lower tiers of the Pirates’ farm system.

With Santana now in Milwaukee, the Bucs figure to give Ji-Man Choi and/or Connor Joe increased reps at first base — although both Choi and Joe themselves are trade candidates. Should the Pirates move one or both players, it’d open more opportunity for the Pirates to get top catching prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis into the lineup on the same day. They could also conceivably take another look at former Yankee Miguel Andujar, whom they’ve twice passed through waivers since acquiring him. Andujar isn’t currently on the 40-man roster but has obliterated Triple-A pitching, slashing .343/.405/.545 in 333 plate appearances. He can be controlled another two years if he’s added back to the roster.

Extension Talks Have Not Progressed Between Cardinals, Jordan Hicks

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The Cardinals are going into the deadline looking to make moves that help the 2024 club. That’s likely to involve trading impending free agents like Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery. Though Jordan Hicks is also an impending free agent, it was reported earlier this week that he and the club were discussing an extension, perhaps keeping him in St. Louis. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports today that those talks have not progressed and he is garnering trade interest.

Hicks, 26, has long been one of the hardest throwers in the league, averaging north of 100 mph on his fastball since he debuted back in 2018. Oddly, he wasn’t about to translate that velocity into elite strikeout stuff. He came into this season having punched out 23% of batters faced, a mark that’s roughly around typical league averages. He did get grounders at an excellent 61.1% clip but also issued walks to 13.4% of batters. His 4.05 ERA prior to this season was fine but not especially exciting.

This year, he finally seems to have had a breakout. He’s thrown 41 2/3 innings for the season, striking out 31.2% of opponents in the process. His 12.7% walk rate is still on the high side, but he’s also still getting grounders on 58.3% of balls in play. That combination is difficult to come by, as among pitchers with at least a 30% strikeout rate in at least 40 innings this year, only Jhoan Durán of the Twins has a higher ground ball rate. Hicks has a 3.67 ERA for the year but may have deserved better, since his .366 batting average on balls in play is above his career rate and the league average, leading to a 3.02 FIP and 3.40 SIERA. Those results have come with Hicks taking over the closing role while Ryan Helsley is on the injured list, racking up eight saves in the past six weeks.

Since Hicks debuted when he was 21, cracking the Opening Day roster in 2018, he’s now just a few months from qualifying for free agency. He’s in his final year of arbitration, making a salary of $1.838M. The Cardinals are 46-57 and have been outside contention for quite a while now. Since they seem to be more focused on the future than the present, it makes sense to move on from Hicks and exchange him for more controllable players, especially now that extension talks haven’t found much traction.

Just about every contending club can use bullpen upgrades at this time of year, so Hicks should get plenty of interest. His previous track record isn’t as dominant as this season and he’s had some health concerns, including a Tommy John surgery in 2019, but acquiring clubs wouldn’t be making long-term commitments to him. They would simply be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a few months to help with a postseason push. The trade deadline is August 1.

Angels Designate Tucker Davidson For Assignment

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The Angels have designated left-hander Tucker Davidson for assignment, per Sam Blum of The Athletic, between games of today’s double-header. His roster spot will go Reynaldo López, who has joined the team after being acquired alongside Lucas Giolito last night.

Davidson, 27, was a prospect of note when with Atlanta, with Baseball America considering him one of their top 30 prospects in five straight years starting in 2018. He got some brief stints with their big league club before coming over to the Angels in last year’s Raisel Iglesias trade. He made eight starts for the Halos after that deal last year but posted an ERA of 6.87 in those.

The southpaw was a candidate for the club’s rotation coming into this year but was nudged out by Griffin Canning. That pushed the out-of-options Davidson into the bullpen, where he’s thrown 31 2/3 innings over 18 appearances with a 6.54 ERA. It’s possible he has deserved better, as he’s struck out 20.9% of opponents, walked just 7.4% and kept the ball on the ground at a 47.1% clip. His 3.38 FIP and 3.95 SIERA are much nicer, with his .412 batting average on balls in play and 59% strand rate likely pushing some more runs across the board.

Deserved or not, the results haven’t been great and the Angels can’t option him to the minors, leading to Davidson’s designation for assignment. They will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. His results at the big league level haven’t been great but he’s not too far removed from being a notable starting pitching prospect and is still young and controllable through 2027. That could lead to some interest, perhaps from a rebuilding club with the ability to give him some rope to try to get back on track.

Looking back to the Iglesias trade, it now seems even more likely to go down as a mere salary dump for the Halos, who moved the three-plus years remaining on his deal. They got back Davidson and Jesse Chavez, with the Angels releasing the latter after less than a month.

Giants’ Starters Drawing Trade Interest

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, teams are calling the Giants about their starting pitching, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. There’s nothing to indicate the club is motivated to move any of its starters, but it’s an interesting development nonetheless. Murray also lists the Giants as one of many clubs seeking bullpen upgrades.

The Giants are 56-47, just three games back of the Dodgers in the National League West and currently in possession of a Wild Card spot. That means they are more likely to do some buying than selling, but the interest in their starting pitching might be a function of the strange market this summer. Due to the expanded playoffs and some weak divisions, there are very few clearcut sellers. It’s been speculated that we may see more trades between contenders this year, such as yesterday’s deal that sent Amed Rosario to the Dodgers and Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians.

The Giants currently have a rotation that consists of Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling. Webb and Cobb each have ERA under 3.50. DeSclafani is at 4.88 but with a low strand rate of 64.8%, leading to a 4.38 FIP and 4.35 SIERA. Wood is struggling this year with a 4.75 ERA but has been much better in the past. Stripling struggled earlier in the year but has a 3.91 ERA since coming off the IL in late June.

Contractually, Webb signed an extension in April and isn’t going anywhere. But Wood is an impending free agent while Cobb is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, with a $10MM club option for 2024 with a $2MM buyout. DeSclafani and Stripling are under contract through 2024, with the latter having an opt-out opportunity at the end of this year.

That’s pushed Sean Manaea and Jakob Junis to long relief roles in the bullpen, both of whom have starting experience and would be good enough for rotation jobs on some clubs. Manaea has a 5.86 ERA this year but a 27.1% strikeout rate and 55.2% strand rate, leading to a 3.98 FIP and 3.74 SIERA. Junis is somewhat similar with a 4.79 ERA but 26.7% strikeout rate and .367 batting average on balls in play, leading to a 4.54 FIP and 3.37 SIERA. Junis is an impending free agent whereas Manaea can opt out of the one year left on his deal after this one.

On top of all those major league options, the club also has more starting pitching currently in Triple-A. Keaton Winn has a 4.47 ERA at Triple-A this year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, as well as posting a 4.09 in his first 22 big league innings. Tristan Beck has a 4.32 ERA in Triple-A and 3.06 ERA in 50 major league innings. Sean Hjelle has a 7.79 ERA in the bigs this year but that’s likely skewed by a .434 BABIP and 51.9% strand rate, leading to a 4.03 FIP and 4.39 SIERA. Kyle Harrison is not yet on the 40-man roster but he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the league.

Given all of those options, and widespread interest in starting pitching around the league, it’s possible the club could line up a deal that sees them move a starter for help elsewhere on the roster. As Murray mentions, the club is looking for bullpen upgrades. Their relievers have a collective 3.75 ERA that’s one of the 10 best in the league, but just about every contender looks for additions to their relief mix at this time of year.

The Giants are also known to be looking for middle infield help, with Thairo Estrada having recently suffered a fractured bone in his hand. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked into some potential paths for them, which included some straightforward seller options like Paul DeJong of the Cardinals and Tim Anderson of the White Sox. Some of the infielders on contenders that could potentially be available are Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal of the Blue Jays, while the Orioles have Ramón Urías, Jorge Mateo and Adam Frazier. Both of those latter clubs are theoretical fits for starting pitching, which could perhaps lead to some interesting talks.

Again, there’s nothing to suggest the Giants are actively pursuing this line of thinking, as Murray only reports that other clubs are inquiring about their depth. But it’s a logical part of the Giants’ roster for them to use to improve elsewhere. The trade deadline is August 1.

Latest On Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres are having a disappointing season, having stayed outside the postseason picture for much of the time. Nonetheless, there have been several signs to suggest they have no intention of selling before the upcoming deadline. Earlier this month, owner Peter Seidler said the club wasn’t “going to reverse course” and more recent reporting said that suitors for rental lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader were being turned away. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that several rival clubs think the Padres will pivot and sell both of those southpaws. That potentially indicates a new approach, though Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels, indicating the Friars still view themselves as buyers.

Whether the Padres change their mind and decide to sell or not will be a fascinating element to watch between now and the August 1 deadline. Their 49-54 record has them 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, with them needing to leapfrog at least four teams to get into postseason position. FanGraphs gives them a 28.2% chance of doing so, though Baseball Prospectus is far more bullish at 56%.

The club’s decision makers have seemingly held firm in their belief in the squad, though the move to the seller lane is surely tempting. The expanded playoffs and some weak divisions have seemingly created a seller’s market, with those clubs that have pieces to move in a position to do well. The White Sox seemed to have secured themselves a strong return for Giolito and Reynaldo López, with Edgar Quero and Ky Bush being previously considered two of the Angels’ top prospects. The Cubs are still deciding on their trade deadline plan, as their recent hot streak could lead to Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman coming off the table, giving further leverage to those who are selling.

If the Padres were to make Snell and Hader available, they could surely bring in quite a haul for their farm system, which could help them reload for the 2024 campaign. Snell is a former Cy Young winner and he’s having an excellent season, with a 2.61 ERA through 21 starts. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the league for a while now and has a miniscule 0.95 ERA this year. Both are impending free agents, making them logical trade chips on a selling team.

Though considering selling is likely a tough pill to swallow for the Padres, given how much they’ve already committed to this year’s club. They have run up the highest payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their $277MM luxury tax calculation from Roster Resource puts them over the $273MM third line of penalization, lining them up to see their top 2024 draft pick pushed back by 10 spots.

They have already put a lot on the line and maybe they don’t want to sink their chances further by trading pieces like Hader and Snell. They could hold on and hope for a late surge, with still a chance to recoup a draft pick when each is given and inevitably declines a qualifying offer. But even that consolation prize will be lessened by their spending, since luxury tax payors have their compensation picks moved from just before the third round to just after the fourth.

If the Padres were to make either Snell or Hader or both available, they would undoubtedly have massive interest around the league. Just about every contender can use some more pitching and those two are both elite. Doing so could have the added bonus of allowing the Padres to dip below the third CBT tier and prevent next year’s top draft pick from moving. However, they may not have much appetite for that, despite their precarious position. Perhaps some more poor results in the coming days will change the calculus, though that remains to be seen. The Padres are off today but host the Rangers for three starting tomorrow before heading to Colorado on Monday. The trade deadline is Tuesday, August 1.

Marlins Have Shown Interest In Tim Anderson

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The Marlins are among the teams looking into White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The two-time All-Star is in the midst of a down season but could be viewed by some clubs as a buy-low, change of scenery candidate.

That’d be the hope in Miami, where the team’s in-house options at shortstop have also underwhelmed. Marlins shortstops are hitting .258/.301/.335 on the season, with Joey Wendle, Jon Berti, Garrett Hampson and Jacob Amaya all having appeared at the position. Anderson’s .245/.285/.285 line is even worse than that, though he’s hitting .378/.440/.422 since the All-Star Game and .300/.345/.350 overall this month. Beyond that, Anderson has a lengthy track record of excellence at the plate; from 2019-22, he batted .318/.347/.473, leading all qualified hitters in batting average during that time.

Anderson would be a pricey addition by the Marlins’ standards. He’s being paid $12.5MM this season and has a $14MM club option for the 2024 campaign (though a $1MM buyout makes it a net $13MM decision for the team). He’s still owed about $4.5MM of this year’s salary between now and season’s end, plus at least the $1MM option buyout.

Looking ahead to the 2024 season, Miami only has about $38MM on the books — assuming slugger Jorge Soler opts out of the remaining one year and $9MM on his contract. That’s before they pick up a $3.5MM option on Berti and before considering raises for notable arbitration-eligible players. Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers and A.J. Puk are among Miami’s arb-eligibles; Arraez, Scott and Luzardo, in particular, will be due notable raises from their respective $6.1MM, $2.825MM and $2.45MM salaries for the 2023 season. Penciling in a $14MM salary for Anderson from the jump would put Miami on track to run a $100MM+ payroll for just the third time in franchise history.

At this stage it’s far from a given that Anderson will end up in Miami — or even that he’ll change hands at all. The White Sox aren’t looking to tear the roster down and embark on another lengthy rebuild but rather are looking to retool to take another shot at contending in 2024. Anderson could well be a part of that, and a big second half would quickly restore the notion that his option is an easy call to exercise. As it stands, it’s a far closer call than anyone would’ve reasonably expected heading into the year.

That said, Chicago’s top prospect, 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, has ripped through minor league pitching since returning from a monthslong stay on the injured list. Montgomery has scarcely played above the High-A level but figures to see ample time in Double-A later this summer. It’s possible he could be ready for a big league look at some point in 2024, and the Sox could always trade Anderson and then sign/acquire a low-cost veteran to bridge the gap to Montgomery this offseason.

The White Sox already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels last night, and as of earlier this month they were reportedly willing to entertain offers on anyone other than the quartet of Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn. The Marlins, meanwhile, got into the trade game yesterday as well when they swapped Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez in an exchange of struggling relievers.

Cardinals Release Ryan Tepera

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The Cardinals have released right-hander Ryan Tepera, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment last week and would have had the right to reject an outright assignment, making this a fairly expected development.

Tepera, 35, has a long track record of being an effective reliever. He came into this year with a career earned run average of 3.50 over 361 appearances, striking out 24.5% of opponents while walking 8.8% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 43.5% clip. That included the first season of a two-year, $14MM deal he signed with the Angels prior to 2022.

But it’s been a trying season for him here in 2023. He posted a 7.27 ERA through his first 10 appearances with the Angels this year, leading to him getting designated for assignment and then released. He secured a minor league deal with the Rangers and tossed eight scoreless innings in Triple-A, striking out 37.9% of batters faced at that level. He was able to opt out of that deal when the Rangers wouldn’t give him a roster spot, but he got one with the Cardinals. Unfortunately, they bounced him off after just two appearances when Tyler O’Neill came off the injured list.

Tepera will now be free to sign with any club. The Angels are still on the hook for what’s left of his contract, meaning any other team could sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Halos owe. With the trade deadline a few days away, plenty of clubs will be trading away relievers and likely opening up new jobs. With Tepera’s track record and minimal acquisition cost, it’s possible some club looks to plug him in as a veteran presence.

Eduardo Rodriguez Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez is drawing plenty of trade interest. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that scouts from several rival clubs having been keeping an eye on him, with the Rangers, Rays, Reds, Phillies and Diamondbacks among those keeping tabs.

It’s unsurprising that Rodriguez, 30, is garnering attention around the league. He’s been a solid major league starter for many years and is having arguably his best season to date. Coming into this year, he had thrown 947 2/3 innings with a 4.15 earned run average, striking out 23.9% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 41.2% clip. Here in 2023, he has a 2.95 ERA, nudging his strikeout rate to 25.9% and lowering his walk rate to 6%, that latter number being a career best by a full point.

Those numbers would fit great in just about every rotation around the league. What makes his situation unique is his contract. He’s not a rental in a strict sense but will be treated similarly to one. The Tigers signed him to a five-year, $77MM deal going into 2022, but that deal gave him the ability to opt out after the second year. That opt-out opportunity is now just a few months away, when he will have to decide between hanging onto the three years and $49MM left on his contract versus returning to the open market.

The last time he was a free agent, he was coming off a season in which he had a 4.74 ERA and had rejected a qualifying offer. This time, it seems like he will have the ability to return to free agency with a stronger platform year and no QO attached, since players aren’t allowed to receive more than one in their careers. He will be two years older and the underlying numbers of his 2021 season were still strong, but all the factors taken into consideration would seem to point to him having a strong shot of getting past that $49MM guarantee in free agency. The most recent offseason saw mid-rotation pitchers like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon get between $63MM and $72MM, with Rodriguez having an argument for being in that range as well.

With that being the case, it makes sense for the Tigers to consider moving him for talent that can help them in future seasons. Their record is currently 46-55, which only puts them 6.5 games off the lead in the weak AL Central, but FanGraphs only gives them a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs with Baseball Prospectus at 0.3%.

The tricky thing is that, unlike other rental players, there’s more downside for the acquiring club. Although Rodriguez is trending towards opting out, there’s a chance he could experience a downturn in results or suffer an injury that causes him to take the bird in the hand. That’s something that other clubs would have to take into consideration when discussing deals, and it’s possible the Tigers get a lesser return than if Rodriguez were simply in the final year of his contract. The injury question mark is always a factor with pitchers and certainly with Rodriguez, who has only once topped 160 innings in a season.

Complications aside, each of the listed clubs would surely love to have Rodriguez in their rotation for the stretch run. The Rangers have lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries, which has put a couple of dents in their depth. Dane Dunning has stepped up and has an ERA of 3.18 this year, but a 15.4% strikeout rate that casts some doubt on its sustainability. Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney are each having lackluster seasons as well, with their respective ERAs hovering just under 5.00. They are still leading the AL West but the Astros are only two games back, with the Angels also aggressively making a push. They’ve already been connected to starters, with reported interest in Lance Lynn of the White Sox.

The Rays have some strong elements to their rotation with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Zach Eflin in four spots, but Eflin has dealt with persistent knee issues in his career and underwent an MRI on his left knee yesterday. It’s unclear if that will be a serious problem, but they are already without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the rest of the season, with Josh Fleming on the 60-day IL as well. Like the Rangers, they’ve also been connected to Lynn in their pursuit of more starting pitching. They have slipped behind Baltimore in the East but still hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.

The Reds have known for some time to be in the market for pitching, which makes plenty of sense. They were hoping to have their rotation fronted by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo but both have been on the IL for a while now with at least a few more weeks until their expected returns. Other starters like Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are on the IL with them. Luke Weaver is still clinging to a rotation spot despite his 7.20 ERA on the year, leaving plenty of room for an upgrade. They are currently holding a Wild Card spot and are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the Central division.

The Phillies have a solid group of five in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, but their depth has been weakened by the Tommy John surgery of Andrew Painter and the struggles of Bailey Falter. The only member of their current rotation than can be optioned is Sanchez, who has a 2.98 ERA but a 4.06 FIP. But perhaps someone could wind up in the bullpen or they simply use a six-man rotation for a while. They currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the tight NL race.

The Diamondbacks have a top-heavy rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the front. Brandon Pfaadt was one of the top pitching prospects in the league coming into the year but has an 8.81 ERA through his first seven starts. Tommy Henry has a 4.01 ERA but with uninspiring peripherals and a 5.14 FIP. Ryne Nelson’s ERA is is 4.97. General manager Mike Hazen has already admitted the club will pursue pitching upgrades. It remains to be seen how aggressive they will be since they’ve been struggling lately, but they are still just half a game out of the playoff picture.

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