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Phillies Notes: Suarez, Sosa, Klentak

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The Phillies were dealt a scare over the weekend when Ranger Suárez took a comeback line-drive off his throwing hand. While that raised initial concern about a potential injured list stint, the southpaw avoided any fractures.

Suárez played catch without issue today and is scheduled for a bullpen session on Wednesday, manager Rob Thomson told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). The Phils will know after tomorrow’s throwing session whether Suárez can take the ball for his next start. The 28-year-old would be lined up opposite Sean Manaea and the Mets on Saturday in London.

Arguably the best pitcher in the majors through two months, Suárez carries an MLB-leading 1.70 ERA over 74 innings. He has punched out 28.5% of batters faced while running an excellent 53.7% ground-ball rate. Opposing hitters have turned in a pitiful .167/.225/.261 slash line over 277 trips to the plate. Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez have all been excellent, giving the Phillies perhaps the top rotation in MLB.

That’s one of myriad reasons the Phils have built a seven-game lead over the Braves in the NL East. Philadelphia’s 43-19 record matches the Yankees’ mark for the best in the majors. They haven’t missed a beat despite losing Trea Turner to a hamstring strain exactly a month ago.

Edmundo Sosa has excelled since taking over for Turner. Sosa is hitting .303/.367/.556 in 110 plate appearances. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have credited him with plus glovework in more than 200 shortstop innings. Sosa’s performance has unquestionably been propped up by a .394 average on balls in play — his 6.4% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout percentage are each a bit worse than the respective league marks — but he’s hitting for a lot more power than expected. Sosa has connected on four homers and triples apiece and picked up five doubles in only 33 games.

While he’s certainly playing well enough to stick in the lineup, he’s not going to displace Turner when the latter is healthy. Neither Bryson Stott nor Alec Bohm is offering much of an opportunity for Sosa to take over at second or third base. While Sosa has never started an MLB game in the outfield, Thomson suggested over the weekend the Phils could consider playing him in a corner outfield spot once Turner comes back.

“Absolutely [a possibility],” the manager told reporters (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “If he keeps hitting like this, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of the lineup. So, got to find a spot for him someplace.” The Phils subsequently lost Brandon Marsh to the injured list, leading them to call up the hot-hitting David Dahl to man left field. Nick Castellanos is playing everyday in right field. He has been a rare weak point in the Philadelphia lineup, struggling to a .214/.277/.342 line through 256 plate appearances.

Few would’ve anticipated the Phillies looking for ways to keep Sosa in the lineup when he was acquired in a relatively low-profile deadline deal two years ago. Philadelphia landed the infielder from the Cardinals in a one-for-one swap sending lefty JoJo Romero to St. Louis. It has turned out to a be a surprisingly consequential trade for both clubs, as Romero has developed into the Cards’ second-best reliever.

The Sosa acquisition is a nice feather in the cap for baseball operations president Dave Dombrowski and his staff. It’s one of a number of strong pickups for the Dombrowksi-led front office, as one would expect on the top team in the National League. As the Inquirer’s Scott Lauber explored over the weekend, the prior regime led by former general manager Matt Klentak also deserves some credit for putting part of the roster in place.

Klentak, who is now working in the Milwaukee front office, led baseball operations in Philadelphia for five seasons. He held the GM role between October 2015 and the end of the 2020 campaign. While a rebuilding Phils club didn’t make the postseason during Klentak’s tenure, Lauber observes that Philadelphia acquired Harper, Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, and Cristopher Sánchez, as well as drafting Stott and Bohm, during that five-year window.

As with any front office tenure, Klentak and his staff had some misses (e.g. selecting Mickey Moniak first overall in an admittedly weak 2016 draft and extending Scott Kingery). Still, there’s no question the Phils made a number of key moves in the 2010s that have contributed to the team’s success over the first half of this decade.

Lauber’s piece is a reminder that most organizations turn over front offices quickly enough that any good roster is a product of multiple regimes. Suárez and Nola were first acquired during Ruben Amaro Jr.’s GM stint. The Phils have added Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Sosa, and overhauled the bullpen since Dombrowski has been at the helm. Dombrowski’s group has also hammered out new deals to keep each of Nola, Realmuto and Wheeler in Philadelphia for the long haul.

Mariners, Matt Bowman Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners are in agreement with reliever Matt Bowman on a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The ZS Sports client would be paid at a $1MM base rate if he cracks the MLB roster and has multiple unspecified opt-out chances, Heyman adds.

Bowman elected free agency after being waived by the Diamondbacks last week. The 33-year-old has already spent time in the majors with both the Twins and D-Backs this season. He made nine appearances between the two clubs, logging 14 1/3 innings of eight-run ball. He fanned 10 hitters against six walks while running a higher than average 47.7% ground-ball rate.

A sinkerballer, Bowman has made his living keeping the ball on the ground. He has a huge 55.7% grounder percentage in just shy of 200 career MLB innings. The vast majority of that work came with the Cardinals and Reds between 2016-19. Injuries essentially robbed him of the 2020-22 seasons. Bowman underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’20 campaign and didn’t return to full health until last season. He spent most of last year in Triple-A with the Yankees, turning in a 3.99 ERA with a decent 22.6% strikeout rate and a 51.9% grounder percentage over 58 2/3 innings. New York briefly called him to the majors last fall but cut him loose at season’s end.

Bowman opened the 2024 season in Triple-A after signing a minor league deal with Minnesota. He threw six scoreless frames with seven strikeouts to earn his call-up. He’ll head back to that level as he tries to secure a spot in the Seattle relief corps.

The M’s don’t have a ton of bullpen flexibility. Five of their relievers are out of options. Andrés Muñoz certainly isn’t going anywhere. Tayler Saucedo is the team’s top left-hander while Gabe Speier is on the shelf. That essentially leaves just one spot (currently held by Collin Snider) for the Mariners to rotate relief arms without exposing anyone to waivers. Bowman himself is out of options, so the Mariners couldn’t freely send him back down if they call him up at any point.

Astros Acquire Nick Hernandez From Padres

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The Astros announced they’ve acquired minor league reliever Nick Hernandez from the Padres (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). San Diego receives cash considerations in return. Hernandez was not on the Padres’ 40-man roster and will not immediately occupy a roster spot in Houston.

It’s a homecoming for the 29-year-old Hernandez in a few respects. He’s a Houston-area native who attended the University of Houston. Hernandez also began his career with the Astros, who selected him in the eighth round of the 2016 draft. The 6’1″ righty played in the organization until 2022, topping out at Triple-A Sugar Land. He qualified for minor league free agency after the ’22 season and signed with San Diego.

Hernandez got to the majors with the Padres last fall. He appeared in two games, allowing four runs in three innings. The Friars outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the start of the winter but circled back on a new minor league contract in January. He has been pitching at Triple-A El Paso, where he’s turned in excellent results.

He owns a 1.90 ERA across 23 2/3 innings despite the difficult pitching environment in the Pacific Coast League. Hernandez has punched out 34% of batters faced and has a near-31% strikeout percentage over parts of four Triple-A campaigns. He has typically issued a few too many free passes, but this season’s 9% walk rate isn’t far from league average. Hernandez has a full slate of options remaining, so the Astros would be able to move him between Houston and Sugar Land if they add him to the 40-man roster.

Royals Exploring Bullpen Market

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The Royals have been perhaps the most surprising contender of 2024. Kansas City’s 36-26 record is fourth-best in the American League. They’re five games behind the Guardians in a suddenly competitive AL Central and occupy the second Wild Card spot.

One year removed from a 106-loss season, K.C. should find themselves in position to add MLB help at the deadline. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning that the Royals are already exploring the trade market for potential bullpen upgrades. General manager J.J. Picollo suggested similarly in an appearance on the New York Post’s The Show podcast with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman. The second-year baseball operations leader indicated that adding swing-and-miss to the late innings would be ideal.

“In the back end of our bullpen, we’re not striking a lot of guys out, so that’s an area that we have to look at for sure,” Picollo said. The GM also pointed to the outfield as “an area we (may) have to address” if they don’t get improved production in the coming weeks.

Relief pitching and the outfield have been Kansas City’s biggest weaknesses. While the Royals’ rotation has arguably been among the three best in MLB, the bullpen entered play tonight ranked 25th with a 4.44 ERA. As Picollo observed, they’ve been particularly lacking in terms of strikeout stuff. Kansas City relievers are last in both strikeout rate (17.4%) and swinging strike percentage (8.5%). The only Royal reliever who has thrown at least five innings with an above-average strikeout rate, Tyler Duffey, was outrighted off the 40-man roster last week.

Kansas City made some modest upgrades to the bullpen over the winter. They inked Chris Stratton and Will Smith to lower-cost free agent deals and acquired John Schreiber and Nick Anderson in trade. Schreiber is the only member of that group who has pitched well thus far. He owns a 2.88 ERA while keeping half his batted balls on the ground over 25 innings. Stratton, Smith and Anderson have all allowed more than five earned runs per nine.

A’s star closer Mason Miller would be the prize of the reliever market, but the asking price will be astronomical. Marlins left-hander Tanner Scott, an impending free agent with a power arm and closing experience, is almost certain to be dealt. The White Sox are likely to trade former starter Michael Kopech, who is missing bats but showing worrisome control in relief. Oakland could dangle journeyman setup man Austin Adams for a much lesser return than they’d demand for Miller. The Mets will probably shop Adam Ottavino, former Royal Jake Diekman, and potentially waiver claim turned temporary closer Reed Garrett. Washington could move Hunter Harvey.

Those are just a handful of the many names who could be available. Virtually every playoff hopeful will at least poke around the relief market at the deadline, but the Royals seem to have a more acute need for bullpen help than most.

The outfield, meanwhile, carried a collective .204/.271/.324 batting line into tonight’s game. They’re last in average and on-base percentage and above only the White Sox in slugging output. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored in a post for Front Office subscribers last month, the Royals have had a staggeringly poor outfield since the departures of Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon. It has been more of the same this season, with none of Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel nor designated hitter/outfielder Nelson Velázquez hitting well.

Picollo expressed some confidence in the in-house outfielders to turn things around, noting that they’ve had a few players “clearly underperforming” based on their previous track records. Neither Melendez nor Isbel have ever hit much at the major league level, though. Renfroe has been a productive player in the past, but he’s following up a mediocre .233/.297/.416 season with a career-worst .179/.256/.327 line over his first 51 games.

There’s probably the most optimism with regards to Velázquez, who drilled 14 homers in 40 games after being acquired from the Cubs at the 2023 deadline. Yet the Royals have used him more often at DH than in the outfield, and his subpar strikeout and walk profile was a cause for concern even amidst last year’s home run barrage.

Even with some clear areas of need, it’s an encouraging time for the Royals and their fanbase. Kansas City has a realistic path to their first postseason berth since their 2015 championship. While they’ll need to continue playing well over the next six-to-eight weeks, Picollo told Heyman and Sherman the front office is prepared to “be aggressive” if they remain in contention as the deadline gets nearer.

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Boras Four, Cubs, Blue Jays, Gambling

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I'm back for this week's mailbag!  We've got questions on the Boras Four, the Cubs' plan at catcher, available righty relievers, Juan Soto's defense, the Blue Jays' offense, the recent gambling suspensions, my one-third award picks, and much more.

Doug asks:

Do you think that front offices will feel even more compelled to depress free agent salaries after all of the prolonged drama about "The Boras Four" and none of those players panning out to be very good? Will any of Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery opt out of their contract?

Owners and players will be diametrically opposed on player salaries until the end of time, or at least until the end of Major League Baseball.  But to your point, it stands to reason that if the early performance of the late-signing Boras pitchers holds up, more front offices will be wary of giving big AAVs to hurlers signing well into spring training, even on short-term deals.

Blake Snell has been terrible, and since debuting April 8th has separate IL stints for adductor and groin strains.  Snell recently told reporters, "The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it. You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what [Jordan] Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him."

Montgomery, who expressed a similar sentiment, sits at a 5.48 ERA after eight starts, with the worst strikeout rate of his career.

Some pitchers have succeeded after signing late, notably Ervin Santana signing on 3-12-14 and putting up a 3.2 WAR season for the Braves.  But both Snell and Montgomery signed later than Santana did, and most examples show pitchers struggling without a normal spring training.

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Mariners’ Owner: Front Office Will Have Resources To Pursue Deadline Upgrades

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The Mariners’ lack of offseason spending drew the ire of the fanbase, as Seattle’s offseason dealings appeared to be as much about managing payroll as they were reshaping the team. Seattle traded away Eugenio Suarez, used Jarred Kelenic to dump the contracts of Evan White and Marco Gonzales on the Braves, made financially motivated swaps involving Robbie Ray and Mitch Haniger, and only signed three free agents to major league contracts (Mitch Garver, Ryne Stanek and Austin Voth). The series of fiscally influenced moves came amid uncertainty surrounding the future of their television contract with ROOT Sports, and while the M’s certainly weren’t alone in their hand-wringing over their broadcast rights, they were arguably impacted as heavily or more heavily than many clubs around the game.

While those uncertainties still exist, Mariners managing partner John Stanton made clear in an interview with Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he’ll provide president of baseball operation Jerry Dipoto, general manager Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office with some financial latitude as the current AL West division leaders look to bolster their club.

“[W]e will look at the [July 30] deadline,” Stanton said. “I’ll spend time with Jerry and Justin as we approach the deadline, and we’ll talk about where we are. Jerry and Justin are 10 times smarter about what it takes to have a successful baseball team. My job is to make sure they have the resources available to get there.”

MLBTR readers are encouraged to read the interview in full, which is rife with quotes from Stanton about the Mariners’ offseason, the future of the television contract and his hope to eventually sign other young players to extensions as the club did with Julio Rodriguez. Broadly speaking, Stanton touted “substantial” financial losses amid the television situation, suggested that ROOT Sports will continue to operate independently through the 2025 season, and claimed that loss of television revenue “isn’t the reason we’ve made any decisions over the past couple years.”

Such comments will undoubtedly raise some skepticism among the fanbase, but the forward-looking takeaway is that Dipoto, Hollander & Co. will be afforded some flexibility to build upon this year’s roughly $140MM payroll. Presumably, augmenting the lineup will be the front office’s prime focus. The Seattle pitching staff is sixth in the majors in ERA and FIP. They’re fourth in SIERA. Only three teams have a better collective strikeout rate than the Mariners 23.8%, and they’re tied with the Twins for MLB’s best walk rate at 6.6%. The starting rotation appears largely set with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo — health permitting, of course. Any contending club can always deepen its bullpen, but that’s likelier to be a secondary objective.

For as excellent as Seattle’s pitching staff is, the offense has been another story entirely. The Mariners’ 230 runs scored are the fourth-fewest in baseball. That comes despite sitting ninth in the majors with 66 home runs — a testament to the general lack of baserunners their lineup has produced. The M’s rank 29th in baseball with a .222 average, 27th with a .298 OBP and 25th with a .365 slugging percentage. Seattle’s .252/.329/.401 slash with men in scoring position is actually ninth-best in baseball by measure of their 113 wRC+ … but the Mariners’ 504 plate appearances with runners in scoring position is the second-fewest in MLB, leading only the tanking White Sox (476 plate appearances with RISP).

The majority of the regulars in Seattle’s lineup have underwhelmed this season. Rodriguez, Ty France, Luke Raley and Dylan Moore have all been productive over the past month, following poor starts to the season, but that’s only boosted Rodriguez to slightly below-average production overall. France has been a bit better than average but nowhere near the offensive force he was from 2020-22. Catcher Cal Raleigh has popped a team-leading 11 homers but is hitting just .209 with a .278 on-base percentage.

What’s particularly problematic for the Mariners is that several of the weakest spots in the lineup are the ones they sought to address in the offseason. Switch-hitting second baseman Jorge Polanco was one of the American League’s steadiest hitters from 2018-23 in Minnesota, batting a combined .270/.338/.455 in nearly 2700 plate appearances. He’s hitting .195/.293/.302 for the Mariners. Haniger got out to a blistering .300/.382/.500 start through his first 68 plate appearances but has faceplanted with a .185/.234/.281 line over his past 145 trips to the plate. Garver hit .250/.346/.508 in his final 1242 plate appearances before signing a two-year deal in Seattle. He’s hitting .170/.276/.309 as the team’s primary DH.

Between Rodriguez, France, Raleigh, Polanco, Garver, Haniger, injured shortstop J.P. Crawford and others, the Mariners have the makings of a productive lineup. Almost the entire unit has underwhelmed, however, leading to far more one- and two-run victories than the club would prefer. Those offensive weaknesses could be particularly exposed in a short postseason series, when teams can more aggressively lean on their top few pitchers to cover the bulk of their innings.

An upgrade in the outfield corners, in particular, seems like a worthwhile pursuit for the Mariners — and some help at the hot corner or second base could prove sensible as well, depending on whether Polanco can turn things around. (Adding at third base could allow hot-hitting Josh Rojas to slide over to second more regularly.) But while ownership can pledge to provide sufficient resources to the baseball operations staff, at least some of the improvement is going to need to come internally.

The Mariners have too many underperforming veterans with strong track records to upgrade over on the fly this summer — many of whom (e.g. Garver, Polanco, Haniger, France) are commanding salaries of note and are signed/controlled beyond the current season. That collection of veterans has exactly eight weeks until July 30 to get back on track. It’s unlikely they all manage to do so, but the front office’s strategy will come into focus as those who are able to bounce back begin to show signs of life.

Keynan Middleton To Undergo Season-Ending Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Cardinals right-hander Keynan Middleton will undergo surgery to repair his flexor tendon and will miss the entire 2024 season. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was among those to relay the news on X.

Middleton, 30, signed with the Cardinals this offseason on a one-year deal with a $6MM guarantee. He’s making a $5MM salary this year and there’s a $1MM buyout on a $6MM club option for 2025.

The Cards were hoping to install Middleton as a key piece of their relief unit after his strong 2023 season. Between the White Sox and Yankees, Middleton tossed 50 2/3 innings last year with a 3.38 earned run average. His 10.8% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he also struck out 30.2% of batters faced and got grounders on 56.6% of balls in play.

Middleton was undoubtedly hoping to build on that campaign and put another strong year together, but it will instead be a lost year for him. He was shut down in the middle of March due to a forearm strain and began the season on the injured list. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection while trying to recover and progressed far enough that he began a rehab assignment. But he then experienced renewed discomfort and was shut down. Now that it has been determined surgery is necessary, he’ll be sidelined for the remainder of the year.

Injuries have been an unfortunately common occurrence for Middleton in his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery back in May of 2018, wiping out the remainder of that season and much of the subsequent campaign as well. In later years, he made trips to the injured list due to a right biceps strain, right elbow inflammation, a right ankle strain and a sprained left great toe. Even last year, when he was healthy enough to make 51 appearances, he missed a couple of weeks due to right shoulder inflammation.

He’s already on the 15-day IL and will be transferred to the 60-day version whenever the Cards need his roster spot for some other transaction. He’ll spend the rest of the year rehabbing and the Cards will then have to decide whether or not they want to bring him back for 2025, a net $5MM decision. Flexor tendon surgery generally has a lesser recovery timetable than other major elbow surgeries and it’s possible Middleton will be healthy by next spring, but the Cards might just take the buyout and keep the $5MM available for other moves, as they could always circle back to Middleton later in the offseason if he’s recovering well.

The Cards have Ryan Helsley as their closer and will give setup work to guys like JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge for now. If the club stays in the playoff race for the next few weeks, they will likely pursue some bullpen help prior to the deadline.

Cristian Javier To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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The Astros are losing right-hander Cristian Javier to Tommy John surgery, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. He’ll undergo the procedure on Thursday and will likely be out at least into the second half of the 2025 season.

Javier landed on the 15-day injured list last week after reporting forearm discomfort during a bullpen session between starts. While the team initially expressed optimism he wouldn’t be out for too long, testing has evidently revealed damage to the UCL in his elbow. It’s the second tough blow in as many days for Houston; righty José Urquidy also could be headed for Tommy John after leaving a recent minor league rehab start with forearm discomfort of his own.

Losing Javier is an even more significant development. The 27-year-old has blossomed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past few seasons. He had a breakout year in 2022, working to a 2.54 ERA while striking out almost a third of opposing hitters over 148 2/3 innings. The Astros signed him to a five-year, $64MM extension — a record guarantee for a pitcher with between three and four years of service — headed into the 2023 season.

Javier had a relative down year, allowing 4.56 earned runs per nine with a 23.1% strikeout rate that was only a little better than league average. He stayed healthy and logged 31 regular season starts and a trio of postseason outings. His efforts at a rebound in 2024 were unfortunately wrecked by injury. Javier lost a couple weeks between April and May with what the team called neck discomfort. He returned on May 11 and pitched three times before suffering the elbow injury. His season concludes with a 3.89 ERA over seven starts.

The Astros opened the season without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, each of whom are working back from elbow procedures they underwent in 2023. With Javier and potentially Urquidy joining them, Houston is down four MLB-caliber starters. That has predictably taken a significant toll on the rotation, which looks quite thin beyond Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander.

Ronel Blanco has stepped up with a 2.44 ERA over 10 starts after winning the fifth starter job in camp. He’s now an integral piece of the rotation, but he’s 30 years old and entered the year with seven major league starts under his belt. Hunter Brown and rookie Spencer Arrighetti occupy the last two rotation spots. While they each rebounded from terrible performances in April to turn in strong numbers in May, their season lines are still poor. Recent minor league signee Eric Lauer is essentially the only starter with notable MLB experience in the organization at Triple-A. J.P. France is on the minor league IL with a shoulder problem.

Houston’s rotation struggles have been perhaps the biggest factor in their underwhelming 27-34 start. General manager Dana Brown reiterated last night that he anticipated approaching the deadline as a buyer. Whether Brown knew for certain that Javier was headed for surgery isn’t clear, but he was surely aware it was a possibility at that time. The Astros may be one of upwards of a dozen teams that could try to add from a limited pool of starting pitching available this summer.

The Astros can move Javier to the 60-day injured list when they need to create a 40-man roster spot. They must reinstate him over the offseason before putting him back on the IL next spring. The righty is making $7MM this season and will earn a $10MM salary in 2025. He’s under contract for $21MM apiece between 2026-27.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

A’s Select Vinny Nittoli

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June 4: The A’s made it official today, selecting Nittoli’s contract today. They also reinstated left-hander Sean Newcomb from the 60-day injured list. One spot was opened by righty Michael Kelly being placed on the suspended list today, one of many players receiving punishments for gambling, as reported earlier today. A second active roster spot was opened by left-hander Brady Basso being optioned. To open another 40-man roster spot, right-hander Paul Blackburn was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Additionally, right-hander Aaron Brooks was outrighted to Las Vegas after being designated for assignment on the weekend.

Blackburn will be ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which was May 11. That means the club doesn’t expect him back in the next month. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment after suffering a stress reaction of the fifth metatarsal of his right foot.

June 3: A’s reliever Vinny Nittoli is joining the team before tomorrow’s series opener with the Mariners, reports Jessica Kleinschmidt (X link). Assuming he’s in line for a call-up, the A’s will need to select his contract to add him to the MLB roster.

Nittoli, 33, landed with Oakland on an offseason minor league deal. The 6’1″ righty struck out 10 hitters in 5 2/3 innings in Spring Training. He has continued to miss plenty of bats for Triple-A Las Vegas. Over 23 1/3 innings in the Pacific Coast League, Nittoli has fanned 36% of opposing hitters. While he has also issued walks at a higher than average rate (11%), the huge strikeout tally has allowed the Xavier product to post a 2.70 ERA in an extremely hitter-friendly setting.

Since making his MLB debut with the Mariners in 2021, Nittoli has logged 6 2/3 innings with three different teams. He has appeared at the big league level in each of the last three seasons, but last year’s three games with the Mets represented a personal high. Nittoli has five years of Triple-A experience, turning in a 4.73 ERA in 177 innings at that level. He has punched out more than 29% of his career Triple-A opponents.

Oakland lost setup man Lucas Erceg to the injured list over the weekend, subtracting one of their higher-octane arms from the relief corps. The A’s have plenty of opportunity available in the middle innings leading up to star closer Mason Miller and high-leverage righty Austin Adams. Their 40-man roster is at capacity and they don’t have any obvious candidates for a move to the 60-day injured list. That could require them to designate a player for assignment if they officially call Nittoli up tomorrow.

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