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Free Agent Profile: Michael Lorenzen

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The new year has seen something of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. Five free agent starters have signed multi-year deals guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the past two weeks alone, and that has left few options for teams hoping to find a capable rotation piece without breaking the bank for a player like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t completely devoid of options of that caliber, however. One of the more interesting pieces remaining on the market is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.

Lorenzen began his career with the Reds back in 2015 as a starter, but the then-23-year-old struggled in the role with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That difficult rookie season resulted in the righty spending the remainder of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, while also dabbling in the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open market for the first time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way role in order to return to the starting rotation full time with the Angels. The right-hander performed as a solid, back-end starter in his first season back in a starting role with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, though he was limited to just 18 starts by a shoulder strain. Looking at his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled with his command to a 10.5% walk rate during his return to starting in 2022, but struck out a respectable 20.7% of batters faced while generating grounders at an impressive 50.2% clip. That solid, back-end performance earned Lorenzen another shot at starting, this time as a member of the Tigers.

On the surface, Lorenzen’s 2023 season may not seem all that different from his 2022 campaign. While he managed 29 appearances (25 starts), his numbers were largely similar to those he posted the previous season: in his 153 innings of work split between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him more or less in line with his performance as member of the Angels the year prior. Looking under the hood tells a different story, however. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit prior to the trade saw the right-hander flash the upside of a solid, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average.

While Lorenzen’s stay in Philadelphia started with an impressive pair of starts that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts. That disastrous finish to Lorenzen’s 2023 season saw him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly during the club’s playoff run this year. While Lorenzen’s brutal final nine appearances last year can’t be entirely discounted, it should be noted that Lorenzen’s innings total of 153 was a career high, and the first time he reached even 100 innings of work in a season since his MLB debut back in 2015. That he was able to maintain his success through 122 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts before things began to unravel figures to lend hope to the possibility Lorenzen can return to that form in 2024 with more careful innings management.

In terms of potential suitors, the market has been entirely quiet regarding the 32-year-old this winter, though it’s easy to see plenty of speculative fits for his services. The Giants and Angels have both shown considerable interest in bolstering their starting pitching corps throughout the winter, though each may look to aim for more impactful additions than Lorenzen. Teams that hope to add to their rotation but figure to face budget crunches this winter, such as the Padres and Red Sox, could see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a guarantee of just $22MM over two years for, as a more financially palatable alternative to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are among a host of other teams that stand to benefit from additional rotation depth and could see the veteran righty as a more affordable alternative to other options.

AL Notes: Jimenez, A’s, Criswell

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The White Sox have received “little interest” from rival clubs regarding DH Eloy Jimenez, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. Jimenez was rumored to be garnering interest from teams early in the offseason, though there has been little in the way of specific rumors regarding his trade market in the months since.

It’s not necessarily shocking that the market for Jimenez’s services has gone dry. The 27-year-old is coming off a down season at the plate in 2023 where he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash line that was only a touch better than league average (105 wRC+). With nearly $17MM in guaranteed money owed to Jimenez between his salary and a $3MM buyout on a club option for next season, teams likely aren’t interested in paying a prospect premium to the White Sox for a pricey slugger who has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, is coming off a down year at the plate, and is limited defensively.

Those flaws figure to be exacerbated by the presence of comparable options such as Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and even Rhys Hoskins who are available to clubs looking to add right-handed pop to their lineup for nothing but money in free agency. Given that reality, it seems likely that the White Sox will retain Jimenez into the season and hope for a bounceback from the slugger, at which point they could re-evaluate the situation over the summer. Last year’s trade deadline saw Jimenez receive interest from multiple clubs, and the lack of free agent alternatives often pushes teams to get deals done they may have been more hesitant to work out the previous winter.

More from around the American League…

  • Reporting earlier this week indicated that the Athletics planned to take their search for an interim stadium for the 2025-27 seasons to Salt Lake City. They did so this weekend, though Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that the A’s have interest in a new ballpark being built in South Jordan, a southern suburb for Salt Lake City, rather than Smith’s Ballpark in the city itself as was previously believed. Akers relays that the Larry H. Miller Company, which owns the Salt Lake Bees minor league club and is building the aforementioned suburban stadium, has been in regular contact with the A’s and that company CEO Steve Starks said in a statement that the arrangement would delay the Bees’ move out of Smith’s Ballpark if agreed upon. The South Jordan stadium the A’s reportedly have interest in has a capacity of just 7,500, compared to the 14,500-seat capacity offered by Smith’s Ballpark.
  • The Red Sox and right-hander Cooper Criswell agreed to a big league deal earlier this winter, and MassLive’s Christopher Smith recently relayed additional information regarding the club’s plans for the 27-year-old hurler. As noted by Smith, Criswell recently told reporters that club brass have instructed him to come to camp ready to start. That would seem to indicate that Criswell could join the likes of Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski in a camp battle for the fifth starter job in Boston this spring, though Criswell was careful to note that building up as a starter during the offseason can be beneficial even if he’s eventually moved to a relief role. Criswell pitched in a bulk relief role with the Rays last year, posting a 5.73 ERA in 33 innings of work across ten appearances at the big league level.

MLBTR Poll: Jordan Montgomery’s Market

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It’s no secret that free agency has been unusually slow this winter. As we head into the final week of January, 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB free agents remain unsigned, and that’s after a three-week period that saw nine players on the list (mostly from the middle tier of the rotation market and the upper level of the relief market) agree to deals.

While much of the mid-level market has begun to thin out at this point, the upper echelons of free agency remain surprisingly deep with the beginning of Spring Training less than a month away. That’s particularly true of the starting pitching side of things, where two of the offseason’s top four rotation arms remain unsigned. That includes left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who is coming off a dominant season split between the Cardinals and Rangers during which he helped Texas bring home the first World Series championship in franchise history.

After struggling with injuries early in his career, Montgomery has settled in as a reliable #2 starter in recent years, with a 3.48 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 94 starts over the past three seasons. While the left-hander’s peripheral numbers have stayed largely consistent over that time as his strikeout rate hovered around 22% against a walk rate that stayed in the realm of 6%, Montgomery’s results have improved in each of the past three seasons: his ERA dipped from 3.83, to 3.48, to 3.20 while his FIP dropped from 3.69, to 3.61, to this past season’s 3.56 figure. The southpaw further established himself as a playoff-caliber arm by helping to carry the Rangers’ rotation down the stretch while ace Max Scherzer battled injuries, posting a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts with the club over the season’s final two months before posting a strong 2.90 ERA during the playoffs.

As a clearly capable arm who can be slotted toward the front of a playoff caliber club’s rotation. Montgomery figured to be among the more coveted pitchers on the market this winter. That’s mostly proven to be true. While the southpaw has yet to sign, he’s garnered plenty of interest from teams throughout the winter with more than half a dozen clubs having been connected to his market over the past two months. Some of those clubs, such as the Mets, Cubs, and Cardinals, went in other directions as the winter progressed and no longer appear to be a fit for Montgomery’s services. Several others remain as plausible landing spots for the 31-year-old hurler, however.

Perhaps chief among those options is a reunion with the Rangers. The latest buzz on the rumor mill regarding Montgomery is that he prefers to return to Texas this winter, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently describing a reunion as the “most likely” conclusion to the southpaw’s free agency once all is said and done. Other potential suitors include the Giants and Angels, both of whom have been reported as interested in both Montgomery and Blake Snell in recent weeks. The Red Sox have also been connected to Montgomery in recent weeks, though the club’s payroll limitations likely mean they’d need to move salary to make room for an arm of Montgomery’s caliber.

While the Yankees also remain at least a nominal fit for Montgomery’s services, the club’s recent signing of Marcus Stroman could lessen their need for an impact rotation piece and they appeared more focused on Snell of the two remaining top starters even before signing Stroman. The Phillies have also been loosely connected to Montgomery this winter, though the club appears more likely to work around the edges of its roster at this point in the offseason rather than make a splash at the top of free agency.

Just as interesting as the question of where Montgomery will land is the question of what sort of contract he’ll command. MLBTR predicted Montgomery for a six-year, $150MM contract at the beginning of the offseason, identical to our prediction for right-hander Aaron Nola. Since then, however, Nola has gone on to return to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM deal. Reports have indicated that Montgomery is targeting a deal that would surpass Nola’s deal in terms of guaranteed money. It’s unclear, however, if teams value Montgomery more highly than Nola; while the lefty has been more consistent in recent years, he’s also six months older than Nola and can’t compare to the righty in terms of durability. Since Montgomery began his career in 2017, he’s made 141 trips to the mound, or two full seasons less than Nola’s 202 during that same timeframe.

So, how do MLBTR readers expect Montgomery’s market to play out? Where will the lefty land? Will he top Nola’s guarantee? Have your say in the polls below:

Red Sox Notes: Rotation, Cora, Ownership, Boddy

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Upgrading the Red Sox rotation has been a well-established goal for the club this winter, but they’ve achieved little on that front beyond swapping out Chris Sale for Lucas Giolito to this point despite pursuits of players such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga this winter. While chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has indicated that the club remains “engaged” in the market for starting pitching, club CEO Sam Kennedy recently cast some doubt on the possibility of the club making a significant addition by noting that the club is unlikely to match its 2023 payroll in 2024.

With that being said, at least one member of the Red Sox pitching apparatus feels confident about the club’s internal options headed into the season. In a conversation with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, newly-minted pitching coach Andrew Bailey disputed the notion that the club needs to add another starting pitcher to its rotation mix while adding that he feels the group, which consists of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta with the likes of Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock in competition for the fifth spot, has the talent to succeed. That group of pitchers combined for a 4.51 ERA in 791 innings of work last year.

Bailey’s optimism regarding the club’s internal options for the rotation is fortunate as its unclear whether the club will be successful in adding another arm to the rotation this offseason. According to RosterResource, the club’s current projected payroll is just $21MM below its 2023 level, likely leaving room for little more than a lower-level acquisition such as Mike Clevinger, Hyun-Jin Ryu, or perhaps a reunion with James Paxton. More significant additions such as a deal for Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would surely require the club to move an existing salary such as that of closer Kenley Jansen, particularly the club’s continuing pursuit of a right-handed hitter such as Adam Duvall.

More notes from Boston…

  • While manager Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract in 2024, the 48-year-old skipper recently told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that he has yet to have any significant discussions with the club regarding his future, though he added that he’d be “very selfish” to focus on that and take his attention away from the upcoming season. Cora has previously indicated that he would like to move upstairs to a front office role at some point, though it’s worth noting that he added that he’s “not ready” to make that jump at this point in his career. If he remains in the dugout following the 2024 season, whether at Fenway or elsewhere, he’ll do so as one of the league’s most well-respected managers with a record of 440-370 through five seasons at the helm in Boston.
  • One piece of the Red Sox management puzzle that seems unlikely to change any time soon is ownership. As noted by Christopher Smith of MassLive, club chairman Tom Werner recently spoke to reporters about the ownership group’s plans to remain in Boston long-term. Werner noted that the Red Sox are the “cornerstone” of Fenway Sports Group, the club’s parent company that also owns other major sports teams such as Liverpool F.C. and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Werner added that ownership hopes to remain at the helm in Boston “for a couple more decades at least.”
  • The Red Sox made a significant hire for their front office earlier this week as The Athletic’s Eno Sarris reports that pitching guru Kyle Boddy has joined the club as a special advisor to Breslow. Boddy is best known as the founder of Driveline Baseball, a data-driven independent player development facility. Aside from his work at Driveline, Boddy also served as the Reds’ pitching director from October 2019 to September 2021. This offseason has seen the Red Sox focus heavily on hires with backgrounds in pitching development, with both Breslow and Bailey joining the club’s ranks in addition to Boddy over the past few months.

White Sox Sign John Brebbia

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9:41AM: Brebbia will earn $5.5MM in guaranteed money, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (links to X) has the breakdown of terms.  Brebbia earns a $4MM base salary for 2024, and there is a $6MM mutual option for 2025 that includes a $1.5MM buyout.  Up to $1MM in incentive bonuses are also available each season, and Brebbia can start unlocking those bonuses if and when he hits the 45-appearance threshold.

8:58AM: The White Sox have signed right-hander John Brebbia, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).  Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times adds that Brebbia inked a one-year deal.  Brebbia is represented by Icon Sports Management.

Newly-hired White Sox senior pitching advisor Brian Bannister undoubtedly had some influence in the signing, as Bannister spent the previous four seasons as the Giants’ director of pitching and oversaw Brebbia’s usage as a versatile bullpen weapon.  Brebbia worked as an opener, middle reliever, and setup man in San Francisco, posting a 3.83 ERA over 134 appearances and 124 2/3 innings while also delivering a solid 6.7% walk rate and 23% strikeout rate.

That latter statistic is perhaps a little misleading, as Brebbia had only a 18.8% strikeout rate during his 68 innings in 2022, sandwiched between much higher K% rates in the smaller sample sizes of his other two seasons.  Brebbia tossed only 18 1/3 innings in 2021 since he was recovering from a June 2020 Tommy John surgery, and he also missed over 2.5 months of last season due to a lat strain.

A 30th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2011 draft, Brebbia was a bit of a late bloomer who didn’t make his MLB debut until when he was just shy of his 27th birthday, as a member of the 2017 Cardinals.  Brebbia pitched well out of the Cards’ bullpen in his first three big league seasons, but in the wake of his TJ surgery, St. Louis opted to non-tender him following the 2020 season.  For his career, the 33-year-old Brebbia has a 3.42 ERA over 299 2/3 innings with St. Louis and San Francisco.

The White Sox had a lot of holes to fill in both the rotation and their bullpen this winter, and GM Chris Getz has been busy on that front in acquiring the likes of Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, Michael Soroka, and Tim Hill, in addition to a number of other pitchers with MLB experience on minor league deals.  Since Aaron Bummer was traded to the Braves, Brebbia might step into the setup role that Bummer previously held in Chicago, even if it isn’t a perfect one-to-one match since Bummer is a southpaw.

It also stands to reason that Brebbia could be deployed as he was in San Francisco, rather than strictly in a setup capacity.  Since Gregory Santos is recovering from elbow inflammation and might not be ready for the start of Spring Training, Brebbia might even nab a few save opportunities if Santos hits any delays or if the White Sox simply decide to take it easy with their prospective closer.

Yankees Notes: Snell, Injuries, Judge

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Earlier this month, the Yankees reportedly made an offer to left-hander Blake Snell, the top remaining starting pitcher on the open market this winter. At the time, no deal got done due to what was reportedly a significant gap between the sides, which ultimately led GM Brian Cashman and his front office to pivot to a two-year deal for right-hander Marcus Stroman. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided an update on Snell’s free agency today, noting that while the Yankees offered Snell $150MM over six years, Snell is in search of either a longer deal or one with an annual salary of at least $30MM.

While that’s still a reasonably substantial gap, it provides more reason for optimism that the sides could come together on a deal later in the offseason than previous reporting that indicated the sides were nearly $100MM apart in negotiations. Feinsand goes on to note that while other teams have shown interest in the lefty this winter, the Yankees’ offer is only the one a team has formally put forward to Snell this winter. Feinsand goes on to indicate that it isn’t yet clear if the club remains in on Snell after adding Stroman, a possibility that echoes the club’s reported focus on bullpen additions at this point in the offseason.

Still, it’s easy to see why the club would have interest in adding Snell to its rotation. While the addition of Stroman raises the floor of the club’s rotation considerably, the club lacks a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole, thanks in large part to the question marks surrounding southpaws Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes after injury-marred 2023 campaigns. Adding Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner who has averaged 27 starts a season over the past three campaigns, would give the club another reliable arm with substantial upside. If the sides aren’t able to come together on a deal, the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays are among other suitors who could have interest in Snell’s services this winter.

More from the Bronx…

  • Cashman told reporters (including Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News) recently that veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo is currently cleared for full baseball activities and that doctors are not worried about symptoms of post-concussion syndrome returning in 2024, though he noted that dealing with injuries involving the brain is “tricky.” Rizzo played for over two months after sustaining a head injury in a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. last May before being placed on the IL in early August. Rizzo slashed an impressive .304/.376/.505 in 53 games prior to the collision before slumping to a brutal .172/.271/.225 slash line in his final 46 games of the year. If the 34-year-old can come close to replicating his early season production in 2024, he’ll be a key fixture in the club’s lineup as the Yankees look to return to the playoffs after missing the postseason for the first time since 2016.
  • As relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, Cashman also discussed the health of veteran slugger Giancarlo Stanton with reporters recently, noting the club’s DH is in a “really good place” following his injury-marred 2023 campaign where he slashed just .191/.275/.420 in 101 games. Cashman added that Stanton’s diet and conditioning work this offseason has helped him to prepare for a healthy return to action in 2024. Manager Aaron Boone seemed to echo those sentiments during a recent appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, noting that Stanton is preparing for “occasional” starts in the outfield during the upcoming campaign. While that’s nothing new for Stanton, who has started between 93 games on the outfield grass over the past three seasons, it’s nonetheless noteworthy that he’ll continue to receive those starts in the field even after the club bolstered its outfield mix with the additions of Alex Verdugo, Juan Soto, and Trent Grisham earlier this winter.
  • In his aforementioned appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, Boone also discussed Aaron Judge and his new role as the club’s regular center fielder headed into the 2024 season. The club’s manager expressed confidence in Judge’s ability to handle the everyday center field job as he heads into his age-32 season despite the hulking slugger’s lengthy injury history, though he did note that he hopes to rest Judge at DH or in left field “once or twice a week” with Grisham taking over duties in center. Assuming the club plans on starting Soto in an outfield corner everyday, that would leave just one spot in the club’s outfield/DH mix for Stanton and Verdugo on days where Grisham is covering for Judge in center. Sacrificing starts for the outfield’s other regulars figures to be a worthwhile gamble for the club to take as long as it helps Judge stay healthy, as the team’s captain has slashed an sensational .294/.417/.657 in 263 games over the past two seasons.

Free Agent Notes: Rodney, Giles, Gutierrez

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17-year MLB veteran Fernando Rodney last pitched in the majors during Game 4 of the 2019 World Series, but The Athletic’s Sam Blum reports that the soon to be 47-year-old right-hander continues to pitch in hopes of making it back to the major leagues before he calls it a career.

Rodney has suited up for eleven different clubs in the majors since he debuted with the Tigers back in 2002, compiling a career 3.80 ERA and 3.77 FIP in 951 big league appearances. During that time, he’s gone 48-71 with 327 saves, good for the 18th most in MLB history. He’s perhaps best known for his otherwordly 2012 campaign with the Rays where he pitched to a microscopic 0.60 ERA in 74 2/3 innings. That was good for an unbelievable 614 ERA+ as Rodney earned the first All Star appearance of his career, a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting, and a top-13 finish in AL MVP voting.

That strong performance kicked off a seven-year stretch where Rodney generally pitched to above average results out of the bullpen, with a 3.14 ERA and 3.34 FIP, though the flashes of his 2012 brilliance came littered with stretches of struggles such as his 39-game stint in Miami where he struggled to a 5.89 ERA in 36 2/3 innings of work. Despite those occasional struggles, Rodney’s stretches of dominance earned him roles in bullpens all across the league until the shortened 2020 season arrived.

While Rodney landed with the Astros on a minor league deal that season, he ultimately was cut from the club without ever suiting up for the team. While that was his last role in affiliated ball, the veteran righty has continued his career in independent leagues around North America in the years since, pitching to a 3.70 ERA in 155 2/3 innings of work over the past four seasons with a 25.5% strikeout rate during that time. Blum notes that even minor league offers from MLB organizations have dried up as Rodney has entered his mid-forties, though it remains at least conceivable that a club could look to bring the veteran hurler into camp on a minor league deal to serve as a mentor for young pitchers in camp while allowing the righty to try and prove himself capable of returning to the majors.

More free agent notes from around the league…

  • Rodney isn’t the only former closer hoping to re-establish himself in the majors, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that right-hander Ken Giles is scheduled to throw a bullpen for interested teams this coming Friday. Giles was among the better relievers in the game for a six-year stretch from 2014 to 2019 but has thrown just 44 total innings (8 in the majors) since the start of the 2020 season. While the 33-year-old’s lengthy layoff due to injuries in recent years leaves plenty of question marks in his profile, Heyman adds that Giles is “said to be healthy.” If he can prove he’s still able to pitch competitively at a high level, teams would surely have interest in adding a veteran with a career 2.71 ERA and 2.46 FIP to their bullpen mix this spring, though he’d almost assuredly be limited to minor league offers.
  • Also coming off a lost season in hopes of re-establishing himself in the majors is right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez, as a report from Francys Romero indicates the righty hosted a private workout for interested teams in Miami yesterday. Earlier this offseason, reporting from Romero indicated that several clubs had expressed interest in Gutierrez after the Reds outrighted him to the minors back in October, allowing him to elect minor league free agency. The 28-year-old pitched just 43 innings over the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery but pitched fairly well over 22 starts during the 2021 season with a 4.74 ERA in 114 innings of work. Gutierrez could be among the more interesting depth options available on the starting pitching market due to his relative youth and the fact that he has options remaining.

Latest On Cubs, Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs and center fielder Cody Bellinger came together on a one-year deal last offseason after Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers that November. The deal went exceptionally well for both sides as Bellinger bounced back to his previous, All Star-caliber form with a .307/.356/.525 slash line in 130 games last year before returning to the open market earlier this winter. Since, then, Bellinger’s market has been a surprisingly quiet one. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided an update on the 28-year-old’s free agency today, suggesting that it’s a “widespread belief” in the industry that Bellinger will return to the north side when all is said and done this winter.

Even so, Feinsand makes clear that no deal is considered close between the two sides. While Bellinger is known to be seeking north of $200MM in free agency this winter, Feinsand indicates that Chicago brass is “showing restraint” in their bids for Bellinger’s services given the lack of aggressive suitors pursuing the offseason’s top free agent outfielder. While the report suggests the Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Mets, and Mariners could all be possible suitors for the slugger’s services, Feinsand makes clear that those teams are likely only interested in the event that Bellinger’s price tag drops considerably below his current asking price.

It’s easy to see the fit for Bellinger in Chicago. While the club added infielder Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers this winter, giving the 26-year-old a likely inside track for the club’s wide-open first base job, the club still suffers from a relative lack of left-handed power and the return of Bellinger could help to fill the vacuum. What’s more, his 134 wRC+ last year led the team as they fell just a game short of returning to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, and his departure would leave a hole in the middle of the club’s order unless he was replaced with another quality bat.

That being said, if Bellinger were to patrol center field on a regular basis that would seemingly block top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who made his major league debut last September with a profile highlighted by his defensive wizardry in center. While Crow-Armstrong may benefit from more development time at the Triple-A level (where he’s logged just 34 career appearances) after he went hitless in his first 19 trips to the plate in the majors last fall, the presence of Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on long-term deals in the outfield corners could complicate the Cubs’ long-term outlook in the outfield if Bellinger does return.

More notes from the north side of Chicago…

  • As relayed by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks recently noted that, contrary to rumors that percolated this past autumn, the sides did not discuss a potential multi-year deal before the Cubs picked up his club option back in November. Hendricks added that the sides similarly haven’t made any sort of progress on a hypothetical contract extension in the months since. The 34-year-old has spent his entire major league career with the Cubs and rebounded from a pair of injury-marred seasons to post a solid 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 24 starts for the club last year. The longest-tenured player remaining on the big league roster, Hendricks figures to reach free agency for the first time in his career next winter if the sides don’t reach an agreement before then. In the event Hendricks does depart after the 2024 campaign, it could create openings in the club’s rotation for a number of young pitchers including Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and top pitching prospect Cade Horton.
  • While the Cubs have typically avoided committing to free agent relievers on multi-year deals in recent years, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated that the club may be willing to go out of its comfort zone in order to bolster the bullpen this winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Hoyer noted that the Cubs have made “some” multiyear offers to bullpen arms in free agency this offseason before going on to emphasize that bolstering the club’s relief corps is a focus for the team headed into 2024. With Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson having recently come off the market, the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson and Hector Neris represent the best remaining bullpen options in free agency.

Latest On Twins’ Trade Discussions

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The Twins have been candid all throughout the offseason about their plans to reduce player payroll this winter, and they’ve largely been successful in that endeavor. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $124MM in 2024, which would represent a $35MM haircut relative to last year’s payroll. Given that reality, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the club does not plan on engaging in a “salary-dump” trade this winter.

That’s surely heartening news for Twins fans, given rumors that swirled earlier this offseason indicating that the likes of second baseman Jorge Polanco, outfielder Max Kepler, and infielder Kyle Farmer were available in trade this winter. While Hayes left open the possibility of a trade coming together, he made clear that the club doesn’t plan on dealing those players in order to clear salary or add prospects. Instead, the Twins are angling to bring back major league talent in any deal as they look to build on a 2023 campaign that saw the club win its first playoff series in two decades.

Hayes also indicates that the club would prefer to move Polanco and/or Farmer rather than Kepler, adding that the “expectation” entering the offseason was that Minnesota would move two infielders from their big-league roster to lessen the club’s positional logjam. Setting aside Polanco and Farmer, the club employees Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Edouard Julien as likely regulars with the likes of Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro and top prospect Brooks Lee all likely to spend at least some time on the infield dirt as well next season. The same goes for Alex Kirilloff, who figures to factor heavily into the club’s first base mix but has plenty of experience in the outfield as well. By contrast, the club’s outfield mix is much less crowded, with Kepler, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach making up the club’s primary options though Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon, and Castro all also have experience on the grass as well.

Despite the club’s apparent willingness to deal from its surplus, Hayes suggests that a deal doesn’t appear likely to come together anytime soon. While he notes that the club has identified potential trade partners and begun talks with them, many of those teams are still waiting to see how the rest of free agency plays out. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the number of positional free agents, ranging from Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman to Justin Turner and Whit Merrifield, are still available at this point in the winter.

If the club hopes to add big league talent in exchange for parting with an established veteran like Polanco or Farmer, it’s not hard to see what areas of the roster they could target. The departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda have left the club unusually thin in the starting rotation. While a quintet of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland would be a viable group to carry into Opening Day, there’s plenty of room for improvement in that group and the club lacks much in the way of depth. Should any of the team’s starting five suffer an injury early in the season, the Twins currently figure to lean on an unproven arm like Brent Headrick or Simeon Woods-Richardson to take the ball every fifth day.

MLBTR took a look at possible trade partners for the Twins regarding Polanco last month, and many of those same teams could also benefit from the addition of Farmer as well. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants, and Marlins were among the clubs mentioned who could stand to add another bat to their infield mix while also having the sort of MLB-ready pitching depth that the Twins could be interested in from which to deal. Speculatively speaking, a team like the Dodgers or Angels could also benefit from bolstering their infield depth given the uncertain shortstop situation in L.A. and the many injuries Anaheim’s infielders suffered last season. Both clubs also have controllable pitching options who could theoretically be moved this winter, such as Gavin Stone and Chase Silseth.

Astros Notes: Extensions, Hader, Pressly, McCullers

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While the Astros prepare for the 2024 season, star infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are headed into the final years of their contracts, with free agency looming next winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston GM Dana Brown recently made clear that the club has not had extension discussions with either player this winter. The same goes for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who Rome adds recently indicated that he and the club did not discuss a long-term extension before agreeing to a $12MM salary for the 2024 season to avoid arbitration earlier this month. This winter marked Tucker’s penultimate trip through arbitration, and he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.

That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.

More notes from Houston…

  • Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
  • Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.

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