The Opener

With a little over two months until Opening Day, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today around the baseball world:

1. Pham/Mets deal to be made official

Shortly after reports of Tommy Pham’s one-year, $6MM agreement with the Mets came in yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the signing will be made official today. The Mets currently have a full 40-man roster, so in order to make Pham’s deal official, a corresponding move will be required. The acquisition of Pham likely rounds out a bench that already sports Luis Guillorme, Darin Ruf, and Tomas Nido, likely pushing center fielder Khalil Lee down to Triple-A unless an additional move such as a trade of Ruf clears space. Such a move isn’t strictly necessary, however, because while there are no center fielders on New York’s bench, both Starling Marte and Mark Canha have center field experience despite starting in the corner spots in deference to Brandon Nimmo.

2. Is the lefty relief market about to heat up?

A fresh batch of rumors made the rounds yesterday concerning the market for left-handed relievers. Just a day after the Marlins were reported to have interest in departing Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, the Royals and Padres were added to the list of teams interested in the lefty fireballer’s services. Chapman, 35 in February, is looking to bounce back from a career-worst 4.46 ERA (88 ERA+) in 2022. Last year’s was his first below-average ERA in a career that has only seen him post a mark above 3.50 one other time, when he posted a 3.60 ERA for the Reds back in 2011.

Andrew Chafin, the top remaining reliever on the free agent market follow two excellent seasons with the Cubs, A’s, and Tigers, is reportedly seeing his market begin to heat up, with the Mets among seven teams known to be interested in his services. Earlier in the week, both Chafin and Matt Moore were connected to the Cubs, who appear focused on adding another bullpen arm ahead of Spring Training, with a preference for a lefty. Zack Britton, Will Smith, and Brad Hand are among the most recognizable lefties also still available in free agency.

3. Will the run on right-handed outfield bats continue?

Just as the stage could be set for a run on left-handed relievers, we’ve seen quite a few veteran right-handed bats come off the board this week. Andrew McCutchen’s return to the Pirates kicked things off, and it’s been followed by Adam Duvall agreeing with the Red Sox, Brian Anderson heading to Milwaukee, Tommy Pham landing with the Mets and Kevin Pillar inking a minor league deal with the Braves. Options in this regard are dwindling, but switch-hitters Jurickson Profar and Robbie Grossman remain unsigned, as do pure righties Chad Pinder, Albert Almora and Stephen Piscotty. As this subsection of the market begins to move, those names could find increased interest. Meanwhile, the trade market offers names like Michael A. Taylor (despite a lofty asking price) and Ramon Laureano (who may not be moved this offseason).

Following a busy morning on the hot stove, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Are the Marlins staying active in the free agent market?

The Marlins have been long expected to be more active on the trade market — where they’ve already dealt shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers and are currently marketing a group of young, controllable starters to rival clubs — than in free agency. That said, even as Miami discusses trades with the Twins and Cardinals (among many other suitors), they might be more active on the open market than otherwise expected. They’ve already signed right-hander Johnny Cueto to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, and reports yesterday indicated that the club has interest in first baseman Yuli Gurriel and closer Aroldis Chapman.

The Marlins enjoy a great deal of flexibility as to which MLB-ready players to target in their dealings with other clubs, with plenty of space to upgrade at virtually every position outside of the starting rotation. While this flexibility allows them to be adaptable in trade discussions, focusing more on the quality of the talent they bring in rather where they talent can contribute, it also means that it’s unlikely they’ll be able to fill every hole on a roster that lost 93 games last season.

2. Recent signings yet to be made official

In Monday’s Opener, we discussed Miami’s reported deal with Johnny Cueto and San Diego’s reported deal with Nelson Cruz, which both had yet to be made official. Those deals have still not been made official, and they are joined in limbo by four right-handed corner bats: Andrew McCutchen, Trey Mancini, Brian Anderson, and Adam Duvall. McCutchen’s $5MM agreement with the Pirates and Mancini’s two-year, $14MM pact with the Cubs were reported as far back as last weekend, so they’re likelier to be made official more quickly than Anderson’s deal with the Brewers or Duvall’s signing with the Red Sox, both of which were reported in just the past twelve hours. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Milwaukee and Boston all join Miami and San Diego in having full 40-man rosters, meaning corresponding moves will be needed for each signing.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins.

As we continue to close in on Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. DFA’d players who will have their situations resolved today

Four players were designated for assignment seven days ago, and a conclusion to those four DFAs is due today. Julian Merryweather and Junior Fernandez of the Blue Jays, Andres Machado of the Nationals, and Oliver Ortega of the Twins are all still awaiting resolution on their status. None of the four have enough service time or the prior outright assignment needed to reject an outright to the minors, so if of them clear waivers, they’ll likely remain with their organizations. Fernandez and Ortega have both been claimed already this offseason, making their situations ones to watch, as they easily could simply be claimed once again. Merryweather averages better than 97 mph on his heater and has above-average spin on the pitch. Machado has posted  a combined 3.41 ERA in 95 innings with the Nats over the past two seasons, albeit with strikeout and walk rates that are noticeably worse than the league average.

2. Brewers fan event tomorrow

For fans in the Milwaukee area, the Brewers are hosting a free fan event tomorrow evening called “Hot Stove & Cold Brews.” The event will feature a meet-and-greet with Brewers players Willy Adames, Freddy Peralta, Aaron Ashby, Garrett Mitchell, Owen Miller, and Sal Frelick. There will be voting opportunities with the players as well. Manager Craig Counsell and general manager Matt Arnold will also be in attendance for a Q&A session after an offseason that has seen the Brewers acquire just one free agent of significance (Wade Miley) but pull off significant trades for players such as William Contreras and Jesse Winker.

3. MLBTR Chat today

MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be taking questions from readers today when he hosts a live chat at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and the same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today if you would like to participate live.

With less than a month until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Reported signings that could be made official

In last Monday’s Opener, we discussed four reported signings that had not yet been made official: Corey Kluber with the Red Sox, Wade Miley with the Brewers, Zach Davies with the Diamondbacks, and Eric Hosmer with the Cubs. Each of those deals were made official over the course of the last week. Today, there are two deals that stick out as likely to be made official in the coming days: the one-year, $8.5MM agreement between Johnny Cueto and the Marlins, and the one-year, $1MM deal Nelson Cruz has with the Padres. Both the Miami and San Diego have full 40-man rosters, which means each club will have to make a corresponding move to make their deal official.

2. What’s next for the Cubs after the Mancini deal?

The Cubs bolstered their lineup this weekend by landing first baseman Trey Mancini on a two-year deal with an opt-out after 2023. With Mancini signed, the position player corps on the North Side appears to be relatively set, barring a trade that clears space or perhaps the acquisition of a bench outfielder. That doesn’t mean the Cubs are done, however. While owner Tom Ricketts recently talked about being “strategic” about when to cross the luxury tax threshold, the club still has just under $12MM to work with before paying into the tax, per RosterResource. After both Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ avoided arbitration last week, it’s possible that even if the Cubs decide to pursue an extension with either player this offseason, any agreement reached wouldn’t impact this season’s luxury tax figure, as is the case with Boston’s extension of Rafael Devers.

One place where the Cubs seem primed to make a move that would impact the 2023 luxury tax line is the bullpen. Chicago is rumored to be interested in Matt Moore and Andrew Chafin, the two top lefty relievers remaining on the market. While the Cubs have done well in recent seasons turning reclamation relievers into successes, a more established arm would certainly make sense in a bullpen that largely lacks a player like that outside of Brad Boxberger. If Moore and Chafin are out of Chicago’s price range, there are still other interesting lefties available to take pressure off Brandon Hughes in 2023: Zack Britton, Brad Hand, and Will Smith are all still available and could bring closing experience to a projected Cubs bullpen without much of it.

3. Which hitters are still available on the free agent market?

The free agent market for position players continued to thin last week, as each of Cruz, Mancini, and Andrew McCutchen signed on with a club for the 2023 season. That said, there’s still some interesting names out there for clubs looking to bolster the lineup in the final weeks before Spring Training. Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus, both of whom have received interest from the Red Sox recently, join Luke Voit as perhaps the three best position players who have yet to sign on with a club. Each of those players seems capable of holding down an everyday role in 2023. In the tier below them, there’s a number of complementary options available, such as David Peralta and Tyler Naquin. Another option would be taking a flier on a player who struggled in 2023 but has had success in the past, such as Brian Anderson or Miguel Sano.

With the first significant date on the 2023 MLB calendar upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Today is the deadline for submitting arbitration figures.

Today is the deadline day for both clubs and players to submit figures to MLB for salary arbitration. While players and their clubs can still avoid arbitration after today, many teams have adopted a “file-and-trial” policy in recent years, meaning they do not negotiate further on one-year arb level deals after today’s deadline. It’s likely there will be heaps of deals agreed to throughout the day today, and while these deals likely won’t wildly change any club’s payroll situation, the cost certainty provided could make it easier for teams to work out deals on the trade market going forward. As has been the case for more than a decade, MLBTR published Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections earlier this offseason.

2. International Free Agency To Open

The 2023 signing period for international free agency is set to begin on Sunday, January 15th. This period, which has been moved to January in recent seasons after years of July signing periods, gives all 30 clubs the opportunity to inject their farm systems with fresh talent. While these players are all almost assuredly several years away from impacting the major leagues, many of the biggest superstars of today’s game were acquired by their clubs through the IFA signing process. Most top prospects in a given IFA class likely unofficially made handshake agreements with clubs long before the official opening of their IFA signing period, so most of these top prospects already have publicly available expected landing spots. MLB and the MLBPA tried to come to an agreement on an international draft this summer following CBA negotiations but were unable to do so, leaving the current system in place for the foreseeable future.

3. Cubs Convention is returning this weekend.

Cubs Convention starts tonight, marking its return after two years of pandemic- and lockout-related absence. Perhaps most interestingly, the Ricketts family (who own the team) is set to make an appearance and interact with fans tomorrow. Tom Ricketts drew plenty of flak for canceling his annual Cubs Convention Q&A with fans in 2019 amid the what was then the team’s quietest offseason in years. He was booed in 2020 when citing the luxury tax as a reason for the team’s lack of spending. Since then, Cubs fans have seen the departure of their entire 2016 World Series core (aside from Kyle Hendricks), and the team has suffered back-to-back losing seasons. The signing of Dansby Swanson could perhaps bring about some good will this time around, but he’ll surely still face some tough questions and perhaps produce some notable quotes on the team’s outlook moving forward.

With just about a month left before Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today as the offseason enters its final stretch:

1. What does Correa’s return mean for the rest of Minnesota’s lineup?

In signing Carlos Correa to a six-year, $200MM deal, the Twins have successfully retained their top offseason target and transformed their lineup. They’ve also created something of a roster crunch. Correa, Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, and Jose Miranda will get regular infield work, with versatile infielder Kyle Farmer and infielder/outfielder Nick Gordon serving as utility options. That entire group is under team control through at least the 2024 season, and by then, Royce Lewis will likely have returned from injury while prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both already at Double-A, could be knocking on the door of the big leagues.

It’s a similar look in the outfield, where Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo and Max Kepler are currently penciled in as the starters, with Gordon, Gilberto Celestino, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner as possible alternatives. With their current glut of position players, it would make sense if the Twins more explored offers on the trade market. Kepler, in particular, has been viewed as a trade candidate — even more so in the wake of Minnesota’s signing of Gallo.

2. Does the Rojas swap portend more moves?

Longtime Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas was traded last night to the Dodgers in exchange for Jacob Amaya, filling a hole in L.A.’s roster left by Trea Turner’s departure. Could this deal spur both clubs into more action? For the Dodgers, Rojas’ $5MM salary puts the club on track to pay into the luxury tax, when they had previously seemed to be trying to avoid. Could Los Angeles look to shed salary through trade? Or is it possible that the club gives up on staying under the luxury tax and participates more aggressively in the trade market going forward to improve the club in 2023?

Meanwhile, Miami gave themselves a lot more flexibility by moving Rojas. Amaya could be a serviceable infielder for them in 2023 (perhaps in a platoon with Joey Wendle) alongside Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura. On the other hand, without surefire starters at every infield position anymore, it’s possible that this deal allows the club to widen their scope when looking for partners in a trade for one of their starting pitchers. Previously, it seemed reasonable to assume they would focus on improving the outfield, but without Rojas, but perhaps there’s some extra consideration now given to MLB-ready infielders.

3. O’Hearn DFA Conclusion Coming

Last week, the Orioles designated first baseman Ryan O’Hearn for assignment. The outcome of that DFA is due today. O’Hearn’s four years of service time surpasses the minimum three years required to reject an outright assignment, although rejecting an outright would mean forgoing the $1.4MM deal he agreed to earlier in the offseason. O’Hearn debuted in 2018, slashing .262/.353/.597 (153 wRC+) in 170 plate appearances with the Royals that season, but he’s struggled to a .211/.282/.351 (68 wRC+) slash in 901 MLB plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season. The O’s designated O’Hearn just days after acquiring him in a trade — seemingly part of their ongoing effort to stash some lefty-swinging first base depth in Triple-A.

With the biggest story of the offseason finally seemingly having reached a conclusion, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Devers, Correa deals expected to be announced today.

Over the past week, both Rafael Devers and, more surprisingly, Carlos Correa have signed long-term deals with the clubs they played for in 2022. Devers signed a 10-year, $313.5MM extension that will begin with the 2024 campaign, lessening the 2023 burden on the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes. Boston is planning a press conference for 11am EST to announce the deal. Correa, meanwhile, has landed with  the Twins on a six-year, $200MM deal that could escalate to a ten-year, $270MM through a series of four vesting options. Correa’s pact to return to the Twins is his third agreement of the offseason after a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants and a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets both fell apart after the teams conducted their physical of Correa. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Twins had no such issues with Correa’s physical and expect to announce the deal with him sometime today.

2. Where does the SP market stand with Cueto off the board?

Veteran starting pitcher Johnny Cueto landed in Miami yesterday on a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee. The signing fortifies an already deep Marlins rotation and further strengthens their position on the trade market, both by allowing them to more freely deal cost-controlled pitching from their rotation and by taking arguably the top remaining starter out of free agency and limiting the options of clubs still looking to add pitching. So, what options do clubs looking to add a free agent starter have still available now that Cueto’s off the board? The pickings are slim, with just two unsigned pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings with an ERA below 4.50 in 2022: Zack Greinke, who would be pitching at age 39 in 2023, and Michael Wacha, whose solid 2022 showing marked a nice rebound from a 5.05 ERA (81 ERA+) and 5.11 FIP across 285 1/3 innings from 2019-2021. Outside of those two aforementioned righties, all that remains on the free agent market are fliers who were injured in 2022, like Danny Duffy and Michael Pineda, or bounce-back candidates like Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. Pitching-hungry teams will need to look to the trade market, where the Marlins, Brewers, Mariners and Mets — among others — could have options of varying quality available.

3. MLBTR chat today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins.

After a busy morning on the free agent market, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Belt, Blue Jays deal to be made official.

Susan Sussler of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that longtime Giant Brandon Belt, who landed in Toronto last night on a one-year deal, will be officially announced by the Blue Jays today. Because the Blue Jays have a full 40-man roster, the club will need to announce a corresponding move to clear space for the slugger. Belt, who will play next season at age 35, has passed his physical and is good to go for the 2023 season after undergoing knee surgery in September, per Slusser. The addition of Belt should help the Blue Jays in their quest to balance their lineup, which was heavily right-handed in 2022. He joins Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho as lefty bats the club has added to their position player mix this offseason.

2. Is a Correa conclusion on the horizon?

Last night brought an update on Carlos Correa’s free agent saga, as reports began to swirl that talks between Correa and the Twins are accelerating. Correa initially agreed to a deal with the Giants last month before a snag in negotiations caused by Correa’s physical caused the shortstop’s camp to pivot to a new deal with the Mets to play third base. The Mets, too, flagged an old injury in Correa’s physical as cause for concern, and the sides have spent the past few weeks trying to finalize the agreement. Whether Correa ultimately ends up in New York, Minnesota, or somewhere else entirely, it seems likely that Correa’s rollercoaster free agency could be finally approaching its conclusion.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be taking questions from readers today when he hosts a live chat at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and the same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today if you would like to participate live.

With five weeks left until Spring Training begins, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today throughout the baseball world:

1. Reported signings that could be made official

In one of last week’s Openers, we discussed three signings that could be made official in the coming days: Corey Kluber with the Red Sox, Evan Longoria with the Diamondbacks, and Wade Miley with the Brewers. Only Longoria’s signing has been made official to this point, with right-hander Edwin Uceta getting DFA’d in the corresponding move. An official announcement and corresponding move should still be in the works for both Kluber and Miley. In addition, two other deals from last week that could be made official in the coming days are the one-year, $5MM deal between Arizona and Zach Davies and the agreement between the Cubs and Eric Hosmer. Both Arizona and Chicago will need to make a corresponding move to clear 40-man roster space in order to add Davies and Hosmer, respectively.

2. What’s next for the Tigers?

This weekend’s five-player deal that sent Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens to Philadelphia in exchange for Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands is the biggest move of Detroit’s offseason to this point. The Tigers addressed the most significant holes on their roster with this deal, as Maton can take the lion’s share of starts a third base, filling a hole left by the non-tender of Jeimer Candelario earlier this offseason. Vierling, meanwhile, serves as a much-needed righty complement to Detroit’s all-lefty outfield unit of Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene, Austin Meadows, and Kerry Carpenter. Of that group, only Greene posted productive numbers against southpaws (.303/.353/.394, 116 wRC+). So, what’s next for the Tigers? They certainly could make room for another bat, or even a rotation arm, if a deal arises that interests them.

The most pressing issue at this point, however, seems to be restocking the bullpen. Detroit’s relief corps has lost both Soto and Joe Jimenez to sell-side trades this offseason while also losing Wily Peralta and Andrew Chafin to free agency. That’s 210 1/3 innings of quality relief work in 2022 that won’t be returning in 2023, leaving the bullpen as the clearest place left where president of baseball operations Scott Harris can add to the club.

3. Will the Mariners keep adding?

With the addition of outfielder AJ Pollock on a one-year, $7MM deal, the Mariners have a platoon partner for former top prospect Jarred Kelenic if he succeeds in the majors in 2023 or some insurance in the outfield if Kelenic continues to struggle. Even with that pair in left, Julio Rodriguez in center and Teoscar Hernandez in right, there’s still room for another outfield-capable bat. Acquiring another outfielder would allow Hernandez to spend more time at designated hitter and ideally give manager Scott Servais another above-average bat to rotate through the outfield and DH mix. As it stands, the Mariners’ DH spot would likely be used for Hernandez and the occasional rest day for other regulars, which would allow names like Cooper Hummel, Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty to get into the lineup elsewhere.

With less than six weeks left until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today in the baseball world:

1. Correa Talking To Other Clubs Again

For a few weeks now, Carlos Correa and the Mets have been trying to work the kinks out of their 12-year, $315MM agreement due to issues with the same old injury that gave the Giants pause in their 13-year, $350MM agreement with the All-Star. It appears those negotiations are no longer entirely exclusive, as Correa’s camp has resumed discussions with at least one team besides the Mets due to the difficulties hammering out a final agreement in New York. Correa’s free agency has been one of the biggest and strangest stories of the offseason, and that’s sure to remain the case until it eventually reaches a proper conclusion.

2. What does the added rotation depth in Milwaukee mean for Houser?

The Brewers fortified their rotation this week by signing Wade Miley and added another depth arm with their waiver claim of Bryse Wilson, who’s out of minor league options (and thus will need to be on the roster or else again designated for assignment). With Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta already locked into starting roles for the club, it seems likely that Miley will compete with Eric Lauer and Aaron Ashby for the final two spots in the rotation, with the third lefty likely joining the bullpen alongside Wilson. Adrian Houser already seemed like a possible trade candidate for Milwaukee considering the number of clubs looking for starting pitching in a thin market, but with even more depth in Milwaukee now, it’s possible that a trade has become even likelier. Houser, who’s controllable for two more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a reasonable $3.6MM through arbitration in 2023, could make sense for a variety of teams looking to add depth to their rotation, including the Angels, Orioles, and Padres.

3. La Stella, Moustakas To Join Free Agent Market

Just as the free agent infield market was thinning out, the Reds and Giants each added another player to the mix, as Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas and San Francisco did the same with Tommy La Stella. The two players have a lot of similarities as they enter the market. Both are lefty-swinging infielders entering their mid-thirties who are capable of playing first, second, and third base. Both have struggled with injuries and under-performance in recent years but have had success as recently as the shortened 2020 season. Perhaps most importantly, both can be had for just the major league minimum in 2023, with their former club still on the hook for the remainder of their contracts.

Either player would be a useful addition to any club if they can rediscover their old form, and there should be teams with a need in the infield who’ll be willing to give them a chance, given the minimal commitment necessary to do so. The Orioles stand out as a particularly interesting match for either Moustakas or La Stella because they recently pursued a lefty infielder in a similar contractual situation: first baseman Eric Hosmer, who ultimately landed with the Cubs. Speculatively speaking, the White Sox, Tigers, Rays, and Cubs are among the other teams who could make sense for this veteran duo.