Checking In On The Worst Rotations Of 2018
Last Sunday, we took a look at the improvements (or lack thereof) the worst bullpens of the 2018 major league season have made since the winter began. Today’s edition will focus on the sorriest rotations from 2018, when the starting staffs of the Orioles, Rangers, Blue Jays, Padres and White Sox posted ERAs upward of 5.00. Those teams also fared poorly in terms of fWAR, unsurprisingly, with the Orioles, Rangers, Padres and White Sox joining the Reds to make up the majors’ bottom five in that department. Even though spring training is set to open across the league, there are still some quality starters remaining in free agency, so it’s possible these teams aren’t done yet. For now, though, most of these staffs leave much to be desired heading into the new season.
White Sox (2018 fWAR: 30th; 2018 ERA: 26th; projected 2019 rotation via Roster Resource): Last year’s White Sox received 30-plus starts from each of James Shields, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, but only Lopez managed adequate production. He and Giolito, two former high-end prospects, will once again take up 40 percent of Chicago’s rotation this season, while Shields is currently without a job. Carlos Rodon is also back as one of the team’s most proven starters, albeit after disappointing over 20 appearances in 2018. At least one newcomer – righty Ivan Nova, acquired from the Pirates in December – will slot in near the top of their staff, and fellow offseason pickup Manny Banuelos could join him in the starting five. The 32-year-old Nova isn’t going to wow anyone, but he’s a perfectly cromulent major league starter, having recorded ERAs in the low-4.00s and thrown 160-plus frames in each of the past three seasons. The 27-year-old Banuelos – a trade pickup from the Dodgers – is a former big-time prospect, but the lefty hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2015, when he totaled the only six starts of his career as a member of the Braves.
Given the lack of major league success Giolito, Banuelos, and depth options Dylan Covey and Carson Fulmer have experienced, the White Sox would be well served to land more rotation possibilities before the season. Their situation would look a lot better if not for the Tommy John surgery prized prospect Michael Kopech underwent last September. He’ll miss the entire season as a result, though Chicago could get its first look at its No. 2 pitching prospect, Dylan Cease, this year.
Orioles (2018 fWAR: 29th; 2018 ERA: 30th; projected 2019 rotation): Thanks in part to a less-than-stellar rotation, this is going to be the second ugly season in a row for the rebuilding Orioles. Internal improvement is possible, though, as returning starters Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner have all shown themselves capable of providing much better numbers than the production they registered over a combined 87 starts in 2018. Inexpensive free-agent signing Nate Karns is also a bounce-back candidate after sitting out most of 2017 and all of ’18 as he recovered from the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Aside from those four – any of whom could end up on the block during the season – no starting option on the Orioles’ 40-man roster has achieved success in the majors. Moreover, their farm system isn’t teeming with hurlers who are in line to make MLB impacts this season. With that in mind, rookie general manager Mike Elias may still be scouring the free-agent market for another cheap stopgap(s) after inking Karns earlier this week.
Padres (2018 fWAR: 28th; 2018 ERA: 27th; projected 2019 rotation): The Padres shrewdly signed former Angel Garrett Richards, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, back in November. But Richards won’t return until later in the season, if he pitches at all in 2019. Other than Richards, the Padres haven’t picked up any starters of note this winter. It hasn’t been for lack of effort, though, as they’ve been connected to the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel, Marcus Stroman and Mike Leake, among others, in the rumor mill during recent months. Syndergaard and Kluber probably aren’t going anywhere, but Keuchel remains available in free agency and both Stroman and Leake could still be trade candidates. Having failed to secure anyone from that group, the Padres continue to possess an underwhelming rotation – one that received a combined 49 starts from the now-departed duo of Clayton Richard and Tyson Ross last season. However, Chris Paddack and Logan Allen, top-100 prospects and a couple of the many prizes in a San Diego system laden with talent, may debut sometime this year.
Rangers (2018 fWAR: 27th; 2018 ERA: 29th; projected 2019 rotation): Of the seven Rangers who accrued the most starts in 2018, only one – lefty Mike Minor – remains. Fortunately for Texas, Minor was easily the best member of the club’s subpar septet. He’s now part of a completely remade starting staff which has reeled in Lance Lynn (three years, $30MM) and Shelby Miller (one year, $2MM) in free agency and Drew Smyly via trade with the Cubs. The team also has 2018 signing Edinson Volquez returning after he missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. In all, it’s not the most compelling quintet, and it’s anyone’s guess what Miller, Smyly and Volquez will offer after their recent injury-wrecked seasons, but all five have at least shown flashes in the majors.
The soon-to-be 32-year-old Lynn has been effective and durable for most of his career; Miller’s a former star prospect who prevented runs at an excellent clip from 2014-16; Smyly generally impressed as a starter over the same three-year span as Miller; and Volquez has five seasons of 170-plus frames under his belt. Meanwhile, other than newly added minor league signing Jason Hammel, the Rangers’ depth options have virtually no major league accomplishments. A few of their top-10 prospects – Jonathan Hernandez, Taylor Hearn and Joe Palumbo – are climbing up the minor league ladder and could be in Arlington soon, however.
Reds (2018 fWAR: 26th; 2018 ERA: 25th; projected 2019 rotation): The Reds boasted a mostly healthy rotation in 2018, as six pitchers each made at least 20 starts, but no one was particularly good. Consequently, the Reds have acquired three proven MLB starters in various trades this offseason, having picked up Sonny Gray from the Yankees, Alex Wood from the Dodgers and Tanner Roark from the Nationals. There isn’t an ace among the trio, but all three are credible major league starters – which the Reds desperately needed, especially considering Matt Harvey walked in free agency. High-potential holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani, who have been inconsistent in the majors, will comprise the rest of Cincinnati’s upgraded rotation to begin the season. The Reds’ new additions will push 2018 regulars Sal Romano (25 starts of 5.48 ERA/5.10 FIP ball) and Tyler Mahle (23 starts, 4.98 ERA/5.25 FIP) into depth roles, which is a plus, as is the end of the Homer Bailey era. The Reds sent Bailey and the remains of his bloated contract to the Dodgers when they traded for Wood and outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in a blockbuster December deal. Bailey produced catastrophic results from 2017-18, a 38-start, 197 1/3-inning span in which he mustered a 6.25 ERA.
Blue Jays (2018 fWAR: 22nd; 2018 ERA: 28th; projected 2019 rotation): The Blue Jays’ rotation handily outdid the above teams’ by fWAR last year, yet the unit still compiled the majors’ third-worst ERA. Toronto has since made modest acquisitions by trading for Richard and signing Matt Shoemaker (one year, $3.5MM). They’ll serve as placeholders for a Jays team which is at least another full year away from vying for a playoff spot, and may listen to offers for its top two starters – Stroman and Aaron Sanchez – during the upcoming season. Both Stroman and Sanchez have been outstanding at times, but that wasn’t true of either in 2018, and the two are now entering their second-last seasons of team control. Stroman and Sanchez remain atop Toronto’s rotation for the time being, with all parties hoping the righties return to their past productive and healthy ways in 2019. Beyond those two, Richard, Shoemaker and Ryan Borucki, the Blue Jays don’t possess any starters who have done much in the majors, though Sam Gaviglio (37 starts), Sean Reid-Foley (seven) and Thomas Pannone (six) have at least gained some experience.
Latest On Giants’ Pursuit Of Bryce Harper
SUNDAY: The Giants plan on making Harper a short-term, big-money offer, but they’re uninterested in giving him a long-term contract along the lines of the 10-year, $300MM proposal he rejected from the Nationals, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
SATURDAY: The Giants’ meeting with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper took place this past Monday, and it lasted twice as long as expected, per reports from Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. Harper’s summit with Giants CEO Larry Baer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bruce Bochy was supposed to span two hours, but it went four. After their Las Vegas visit with Harper, “there certainly was an increase in optimism” that the Giants could reel him in, writes Pavlovic, who adds there’s “an increased sense” in the clubhouse that the superstar wants to sign with San Francisco.
The Giants, for their part, are understandably bullish on Harper. On Saturday, one day after Zaidi made it known the Giants are indeed going after Harper, Baer did the same while lavishing praise on the longtime National.
“Bryce Harper is an amazing player,” Baer said. “It’s very hard, and these are competitions, and I can’t handicap it. I don’t know where we are. But we’re giving it a shot. That’s all we can do.”
Baer also made note of Harper’s age, 26, as one of the six-time All-Star’s main selling points and even referred to the Giants’ successful courtship of Barry Bonds in 1992. Then 28, Bonds, like Harper now, reached free agency after establishing himself as one of the game’s preeminent players. And the Giants managed to wrest Bonds away from Pittsburgh, where he spent the first seven years of his career, and fend off other suitors by offering him a then-record contract worth $43.75MM over six years. As Bonds did nearly 27 years ago, Harper could now be in position to set a new high-water mark when it comes to baseball contracts. It seems Harper’s aiming to approach or surpass Giancarlo Stanton‘s historic $325MM pact, having reportedly turned down a $300MM-plus offer from the Nats earlier this offseason.
The Giants didn’t make an offer to Harper when they met with him, nor do they expect the protracted race for his services to end this weekend, according to Pavlovic. But as a big-spending franchise that sported the National League’s least valuable outfield in 2018, San Francisco’s second straight horrendous showing in the standings, it seems as logical a landing spot for Harper as any team in the game. And now, after winning three World Series from 2010-14 but falling from grace lately, the goal is “to bring championships back to the Giants’ fans,” Baer noted. While adding Harper may not vault the Giants back into title contention immediately, Baer’s of the belief that “one player can make a difference.”
Poll: Grading The J.T. Realmuto Trade
After several months of nonstop rumors centering on J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins finally found an offer to their liking for the superstar catcher Thursday, when they dealt him to the NL East rival Phillies. Entering the offseason, it seemed inevitable the rebuilding Marlins would part with Realmuto, who made it clear on multiple occasions going back to last winter that he was uninterested in signing an extension with the club.
At times this offseason, Realmuto drew interest from nearly half the league (14 teams), and with such a vast market for his services, Miami spent the past few months holding out for a Godfather offer from one of those clubs. In the end, the Marlins accepted a three-player return consisting of major league catcher Jorge Alfaro, who will immediately replace Realmuto in their starting lineup, two pitching prospects (right-hander Sixto Sanchez and lefty Will Stewart) and $250K in international slot money.
For the Phillies, the Realmuto acquisition is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. Coming off their seventh straight non-playoff season and sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Phillies are aiming to push for a playoff spot in 2019 with newcomers Realmuto, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and possibly Bryce Harper or Manny Machado helping lead the way. And Realmuto – who was the undisputed premier catcher in the game last year – will help their cause beyond the upcoming campaign, as he’s controllable through 2020.
For the Marlins, the Realmuto trade is the latest win-later move dating back to last winter, when the low-budget club traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon for futures. In Alfaro, they received a player who showed a penchant for striking out and little ability to walk from 2017-18, his first two seasons of extensive major league action. But Alfaro was nonetheless respectable at the plate during that span, and the cannon-armed 25-year-old is fresh off a season in which he earned raves from defensive metrics. To this point, then, Alfaro has been a satisfactory pro. However, whether Alfaro will continue to serve as an acceptable starter or fall backward could hinge on improving his high-strikeout, low-walk ways, especially considering he won’t keep running a career .405 batting average on balls in play.
While Alfaro’s the only current major leaguer Miami got for Realmuto, Sanchez looks like the biggest prize. Despite the 5-foot-10, 185-pounder’s diminutive stature, each of FanGraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law rank Sanchez between fifth and 35th on their list of the majors’ top prospects. All of those outlets and individuals agree the flamethrowing Sanchez has the upside of a front-line rotation piece, and at 20 years old, he’ll breathe new life into the Marlins’ farm system. Although Sanchez hasn’t pitched above the High-A level yet, once he gets to Miami, he could emerge as its best starter since the Jose Fernandez era came to a tragic conclusion in 2016.
Stewart, 21, is far less intriguing than Sanchez, with MLB.com ranking him as the Marlins’ No. 25 prospect. Whereas Sanchez is a potential No. 1 starter who possesses electrifying velocity, MLB.com regards Stewart as a possible back-end type whose velocity is “average.” To Stewart’s credit, though, he did post tremendous results last year at the Single-A level, where he logged a 2.06 ERA with 7.13 K/9, 1.66 BB/9 and a 62.1 percent groundball rate, mimicking the best version of Dallas Keuchel in that regard.
With Alfaro, Sanchez, Stewart and a bit more international spending room in tow, there’s plenty for Miami to dream on going forward. The Phillies, meanwhile, made a substantial near-term upgrade behind the plate, albeit one that cost them their previous No. 1 prospect and another promising hurler. In your estimation, how did the two teams fare in this swap? Cast your votes below…
(Phillies poll link for app users; Marlins poll link for app users)
Grade the Realmuto trade for the Phillies
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A 41% (9,024)
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B 40% (8,825)
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C 14% (3,076)
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D 4% (780)
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F 2% (467)
Total votes: 22,172
Grade the Realmuto trade for the Marlins
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B 35% (7,060)
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A 27% (5,373)
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C 26% (5,184)
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D 8% (1,637)
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F 4% (884)
Total votes: 20,138
Catcher Notes: Posey, Giants, G. Sanchez, Athletics
A few notes from behind the plate…
- When Giants stalwart Buster Posey underwent season-ending hip surgery last August, there was some question as to whether he’d be ready in time for Opening Day this year. While Posey’s recovery has seemingly gone well enough for him to return at the outset of the season, the Giants are going to take a “smart” and “careful” approach as they break the six-time All-Star back into action, according to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). “Even if he’s ready to carry a full catching load to start the season, I’m not sure that would be the prudent course for us,” noted Zaidi, who added that the Giants are still in the market for depth at catcher. They did sign the seasoned Rene Rivera on Friday, but he only secured a minor league deal, which still leaves the Giants with Posey and Aramis Garcia as the only catchers on their 40-man roster. Of course, they also have experienced veteran Cameron Rupp joining Rivera as credible depth heading into camp.
- The Yankees’ Gary Sanchez is also coming off surgery, having undergone an offseason procedure on his left (non-throwing) shoulder. Sanchez is now “healthy,” per general manager Brian Cashman (via George A. King III of the New York Post), but the Yanks will mimic the Giants in being cautious with their prized backstop this spring. The 26-year-old Sanchez joined Posey among the majors’ elite catchers from 2017-18, though the former’s now looking to bounce back from a shockingly rough season. Sanchez bombed at the plate, hitting .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 trips, and also drew the ire of fans and media for leading the American League in passed balls (18).
- It’s “unlikely” the Athletics will enter the season with their current catcher tandem of Josh Phegley and Chris Herrmann, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Ultimately, the A’s may take a similar route to the one they went down last spring, when they signed a veteran (Jonathan Lucroy) in March, but the team could have a greater sense of urgency this time around because it’s leaving for Japan on March 14, Slusser notes. Free-agent backstop options are dwindling, moreover, though at least one of the available players – Matt Wieters – has piqued the Athletics’ interest.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Moose, Marlins, Alfaro, Braves, Brantley
The Phillies have reportedly shown interest in third baseman Mike Moustakas, who could be a fallback signing if they don’t win the battle for fellow free agent Manny Machado. But now, unless the Phillies miss out on both Machado and free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, the chances of Moustakas joining the team appear especially slim. If Philadelphia signs Harper over Machado, “it seems unlikely” the club would also add Moustakas, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Rather, the Phillies would probably be content with a revamped lineup that would include Harper and other high-profile newcomers in J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, Zolecki posits. In that scenario, Maikel Franco – who, at least offensively, was similar to Moustakas in 2018 – and Scott Kingery would be their top options at third base.
Here’s the latest on a pair of Philly’s division rivals:
- The Marlins intend to strengthen their bullpen from outside in the coming days, president of baseball operations Michael Hill told Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald and other reporters Saturday. “Hopefully, we’ll get that taken care of before pitchers take the field [on Wednesday],” said Hill, who wants a “veteran bullpen piece to help with” the unit’s younger pitchers. There’s still a good amount of familiar free-agent relievers the low-payroll Marlins should be able to afford as they seek to bolster a relief unit that was among the majors’ worst in 2018.
- Outfielder Michael Brantley accepted Houston’s two-year, $32MM back in December, but the Braves came “very close” to matching the Astros’ offer, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. A month after losing out on Brantley, the Braves brought back the less exciting Nick Markakis on a one-year, $6MM deal to fill their vacancy in the corner outfield. For the second straight year, Markakis, Ender Inciarte and young superstar Ronald Acuna are in line to accrue the lion’s share of playing time among Braves outfielders.
- As you’d expect, the Marlins are high on catcher Jorge Alfaro, one of the players they acquired from Philadelphia in Thursday’s blockbuster trade centering on Realmuto. Manager Don Mattingly raved about Alfaro’s arm Saturday, saying that “J.T. threw great” but “[Alfaro] throws better,” via Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Indeed, Realmuto finished second only to Alfaro in arm strength in 2018, according to Statcast, and the latter also beat out the former (and nearly every other catcher in the sport) as an overall defender, per Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. But whether Alfaro succeeds offensively will help determine how well the Marlins did in this trade, of course, and Spencer points out the 25-year-old is no sure thing at the plate. Alfaro produced respectable bottom-line results from 2017-18, a 491-plate appearance span in which he slashed .275/.332/.432 (103 wRC+). At the same time, though, he struck out in nearly 35 percent percent of trips while walking just 4.3 of the time. Mattingly acknowledged that Alfaro has work to do in that area, but the skipper noted he has an “efficient” swing and improvement’s “just a matter of approach and thinking.”
Mariners Rumors: Encarnacion, Hernandez
After the Mariners acquired designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Indians in a three-team trade in December, the retooling M’s informed the slugger they were planning on flipping him elsewhere for prospects, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. While Enarnacion did generate interest from a few other teams after Seattle acquired him, he’s still a member of the Mariners nearly two months after the fact. The reason? Potential suitors for Encarnacion have faded, Divish relays, making it possible the 36-year-old will at least open the season with the Mariners.
The Rays, Astros and White Sox were reportedly “involved” in talks for Encarnacion in late December. Tampa Bay showed no interest in trading for Encarnacion, however, even if the Mariners ate half of the remaining $25MM guarantee left on his contract, according to Divish. Meanwhile, although the Mariners did shop Encarnacion to division-rival Houston, the Astros appear content with Tyler White and Yuli Gurriel as their top DH/first base options, Divish suggests. As for the White Sox, they don’t look like a clean fit for Encarnacion given the presences of lumbering sluggers Jose Abreu and Yonder Alonso.
With Encarnacion primarily being a DH at this juncture of his career, his market’s limited to the American League, where nobody is champing at the bit to acquire him, per Divish. The Mariners’ best hope of moving Encarnacion before the season may be if a contending team’s DH/first baseman suffers an injury during the spring, then, as Divish observes. Otherwise, it appears the M’s will be left to hope Encarnacion – a once-dominant offensive force who posted a 146 wRC+ and a major league-best 231 home runs from 2012-17 – can rebuild his stock in their uniform leading up to the July and August trade deadlines. Encarnacion did belt 32 homers in 579 PAs last year – his seventh straight campaign with at least 30 HRs – though his .246/.336/.474 line and 115 wRC+ fell flat in comparison to his tremendous output over prior seasons.
Like Encarnacion, right-hander Felix Hernandez is potentially a year from free agency and may be in his last several months as a Mariner. And the M’s have even less hope of finding a taker for the formerly marvelous Hernandez, owing to both his team-high salary ($27.5MM) and the hideous 5.13 ERA/5.12 FIP he registered over 242 1/3 innings from 2017-18. Despite King Felix’s recent struggles, however, “all indications” are that he plans to his career beyond the upcoming season, Divish writes. Regardless, Hernandez will try to return to at least serving as a viable starter this year after an awful showing in 2018, when the M’s briefly relegated the 2010 AL Cy Young winner to their bullpen. Going forward, though, general manager Jerry Dipoto emphasized that the Mariners are planning on using Hernandez solely as a starter.
Padres Pursuing Mike Moustakas
The Brewers are reportedly the front-runners to sign free-agent third baseman Mike Moustakas, but they’re facing competition from at least one team. The Padres, who have prioritized finding a third baseman this offseason, are “going after” Moustakas, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. San Diego first “checked in” on Moustakas earlier this winter, and Cassavell’s report indicates the club is legitimately in pursuit of the 30-year-old at this late stage of the offseason.
This is the second straight drawn-out trip to the open market for Moustakas, who was shockingly available until last March before re-signing with the Royals for a $6.5MM guarantee. While Moustakas entered last winter with designs on landing a lucrative multiyear deal, that was before the free-agent process became unkind to even the most proven veterans available. This is the second year in a row a slew of familiar names are unemployed as spring training approaches, and even elite free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado haven’t found deals to their liking yet. With that in mind, it’s not surprising Moustakas is still searching for a contract. Some of the teams that could sign Moustakas are likely awaiting Machado’s decision first, after all, and the former did turn in a 2018 showing which was almost identical to his 2017 performance.
Last year, in 152 games divided between the Royals and Brewers, Moustakas offered slightly above-average offensive numbers, hitting .251/.315/.459 (105 wRC+) with 28 home runs in 635 plate appearances. He paired that output with respectable defense at third, where he posted two DRS and a plus-one Ultimate Zone Rating, en route to 2.4 fWAR (he logged 2.1 fWAR in 598 PAs during the prior campaign).
Based on the production Moustakas has recorded in recent years and throughout most of his career, he’d give the Padres an average regular at third. Moustakas, then, is a far less compelling option than Machado – who has also drawn the Padres’ interest – but would nonetheless give the Friars a credible starter at the hot corner. It seems they’re lacking that at the moment, evidenced by the untested Ty France being their projected starter at the position, after waving goodbye to the unspectacular 2018 duo of Christian Villanueva and Cory Spangenberg earlier this offseason. While the Padres still have Wil Myers, who played 36 games at third last season, the team’s plan to shift him back to a full-time outfield role during the upcoming campaign remains intact, Cassavell hears. Likewise, big-hitting catcher prospect Francisco Mejia, who saw a bit of action at third while a member of Cleveland’s farm system, will not be a hot corner choice for San Diego, per Cassavell.
Should he sign with the Padres, Moustakas would reunite him with his friend, first baseman Eric Hosmer, as the two were teammates in Kansas City from 2011-17. However, if the Padres miss on Moustakas (not to mention Machado), they could turn their attention to another of the established third base possibilities still without jobs. Marwin Gonzalez – whom San Diego targeted earlier this winter – remains a free agent, as do Derek Dietrich, Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and ex-Padre Yangervis Solarte. Barring a trade, someone from that group may well end up in a Padres uniform before the season begins.
Poll: Projecting Luke Voit’s 2019
Among major leaguers who finished with at least 150 plate appearances in 2018, future Hall of Famer Mike Trout unsurprisingly led the way in wRC+ (191). But who finished second? Was it AL MVP Mookie Betts, NL MVP Christian Yelich or another big-name superstar? No, it was Luke Voit, who put up a 187 wRC+ in 161 PAs divided between the Cardinals and Yankees. Voit took a mere 13 trips to the plate until late July, when New York acquired him from St. Louis for a pair of relievers, and then proceeded to give the first baseman-needy Yankees an answer at the position over the final couple months of the season.
During his first 148 PAs as a Yankee, the burly, boisterous Voit batted a video game-like .322/.398/.671 with a Ruthian ISO (.350) and 15 home runs. And Statcast backed up Voit’s production, ranking the soon-to-be 28-year-old first in barrels per plate appearance and expected weighted on-base average (.437) among those who racked up at least 150 PAs on the season. While Voit benefited from a .365 batting average on balls in play, a number he may not approach again, the Yankees are understandably optimistic he’s good enough to serve as their No. 1 option at first going forward.
This has been an active offseason in the infield for New York, which has signed DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki while showing interest in Manny Machado, but the team has been quiet at first base. Despite Voit’s limited track record, the right-handed slugger’s incredible showing toward the end of 2018 has made him the odds-on favorite to start at first in 2019 for the Yankees, whose previous long-term hope, the lefty-swinging Greg Bird, has fallen short of expectations because of a spate of injuries and less-than-stellar overall production. The Yankees have been bullish on Bird, but he missed all of 2016 because of a shoulder injury, and then produced very little from 2017-18 while dealing with foot problems. His horrific 2018 campaign made it necessary for the World Series-contending Yankees to address first, where they ultimately chose to turn to Voit over the summer.
While it’s still too soon to give up on the 26-year-old Bird, he may not receive regular playing time with the Yankees again unless Voit falls flat. Although Bird was a much better prospect than Voit during their younger days, there’s no doubt the latter has been the superior major leaguer to this point. Consequently, as the Yankees prepare for a championship push, they’ll continue with Voit at first, undoubtedly hoping last season wasn’t a mirage and they’ve acquired a star-caliber hitter for next to nothing.
The Steamer projection system doesn’t expect the 2019 version of Voit to serve as an offensive force, though, as it predicts he’ll wind up with an above-average but hardly world-beating .262/.335/.458 line. That would make for a .793 OPS, far better than what Yankees first basemen managed from 2016-18 but also much less impressive than the production Voit offered during his abbreviated showing last season. Now that he’s the Yankees’ preferred choice at first, how do you expect Voit to perform in 2019?
(link for app users)
Predict Luke Voit's 2019 OPS
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.800-.850 33% (4,599)
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.751-.799 33% (4,595)
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.750 Or Below 18% (2,591)
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.851-.899 10% (1,381)
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.900 Or Better 6% (883)
Total votes: 14,049
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On J.T. Realmuto
SUNDAY: The Rays “appear content” with their current lineup, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, who adds it would be “unexpected” for the club to make any more trades with spring training nearing. That seems to cast doubt on the possibility of the Rays acquiring Realmuto.
SATURDAY: Twists and turns continue in the saga of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has been a dominant presence in trade rumors throughout the offseason. As of Thursday, the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves were reportedly the last remaining suitors for Realmuto, but the Rays have worked their way back into the mix, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. While it seemed earlier this week that Tampa Bay had exited the race for Realmuto, the club has “re-engaged” as spring training nears, per Frisaro.
Fresh off a surprising 90-win season in 2018, the Rays entered the winter as candidates to make noteworthy upgrades, despite their low-payroll ways, but have mostly shied away from headline-grabbing moves. The Rays’ biggest pickup thus far has been right-hander Charlie Morton, whom they inked to a two-year, $30MM contract, and they’ve also reeled in the less expensive trio of catcher Mike Zunino (via trade with Seattle), infielder Yandy Diaz (via trade with Cleveland) and outfielder Avisail Garcia (one year, $3.5MM guarantee). With those four in tow, the Rays are only projected to open the season with a $59MM-plus payroll – far below their $76MM-plus mark from 2018 – as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates.
Fortunately for the small-spending Rays, acquiring Realmuto would not cause a sizable dent in their budget. He’ll earn $5.9MM this year, his second-last arbitration season, and that relatively inexpensive sum only increases his appeal from their standpoint. At the same time, it also helps explain why the Marlins have been holding out for a bounty for the soon-to-be 28-year-old Realmuto, who was the majors’ top catcher last season. And the Rays, whose farm system features nine of ESPN’s Keith Law’s top-100 prospects (subscription required), likely have the ammunition to get a deal done if they’re motivated.
However, should the Rays land Realmuto, it’s an open question whether Zunino would remain in place. Tampa Bay could simply keep Zunino as Realmuto’s backup, thus giving it the game’s best behind-the-plate tandem, but the former may once again become a trade chip in his own right. With a quality track record, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining and a sub-$4.5MM salary for 2019, Zunino could bring back a player(s) capable of helping the Rays’ roster at another position. Zunino has already netted a solid return in a trade once this offseason, as the Rays acquired him in a five-player deal in which they parted with a cheap, starting-caliber outfielder in Mallex Smith.
The Marlins, meanwhile, may receive a Realmuto replacement as part of a trade, which could make Zunino an attractive target for them. While that’s merely speculation, they have discussed veteran backstop Tucker Barnhart in trade talks with the Reds, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tweets. Additionally, a potential deal with Cincinnati could include 22-year-old third baseman Jonathan India (previously reported) – whom the Reds selected fifth overall in last summer’s draft – as well as at least one “lesser” prospect, Mayo relays. Acquiring Realmuto would be the latest sign that Cincinnati’s aiming to return to contention in 2019. The Reds are currently coming off their fifth straight sub-.500 season and fourth straight campaign with fewer than 70 wins, but they’ve since picked up a slew of household names in various trades.
Like the Reds, the Padres seem hopeful they’ll put several years of irrelevance behind them during the upcoming season. Although the Padres haven’t made any significant improvements yet, they’ve been connected to Realmuto and other stars in the rumor mill. Trading for Realmuto would surely take a bite out of the Padres’ loaded farm system – a unit which includes a whopping 10 top-100 prospects, per Law; subscription required). Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last week that the Marlins wanted big-hitting catcher prospect Francisco Mejia from the Padres in exchange for Realmuto, but it doesn’t seem that’s the case anymore. At this point, Miami’s interest in Mejia isn’t “especially high,” according to Morosi, Therefore, it’s “likely” that the Marlins would instead need one of Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias from the Padres in a Realmuto package, Morosi writes. Tatis, Gore and Urias rank first, second and fourth among the Padres’ prospects at MLB.com, which places Mejia third.
It’s currently anyone’s guess which uniform Realmuto will don in 2019, but it seems we’ll find out in the coming days. The Marlins are within two weeks of opening camp, and it’s unlikely Realmuto will still be on their roster at that point, Frisaro suggests.
Checking In On The Worst Bullpens Of 2018
The importance of having a dominant bullpen was on display in 2018, when four of the majors’ five best relief units in terms of fWAR helped pitch their teams to the postseason. On the other hand, four of the league’s five worst relief corps (and nine of the game’s bottom 10) watched the playoffs from home. So now, with the spring fast approaching, where do last year’s bottom-feeding bullpens stand? As you’ll see below, at least one has made major improvements this winter, but the rest look iffier. While there’s still time for these teams to add help from a free-agent class that remains awash with veterans, this quintet’s bullpen-related heavy lifting may be all but complete for the offseason.
Royals (minus-2.2 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource ): Going by fWAR, the Royals’ 2018 bullpen was among the five worst of the past decade, though the unit “only” posted the majors’ second-highest ERA (5.09) a year ago. Those hideous numbers came in spite of the presence of Kelvin Herrera, who logged a near-spotless 1.05 ERA over 25 2/3 innings before the Royals traded the then-pending free agent to the Nationals in June. They also came thanks in large part to Brandon Maurer, who’s now a Pirate after pitching to a ghastly 7.76 ERA/6.58 FIP in 31 1/3 innings out of Kansas City’s bullpen last season.
Heading into the upcoming campaign, there’s a lot of work to be done to turn this Herrera-less group into a strength, but the Royals haven’t addressed it in any major way this offseason. However, considering they’re coming off a 58-win season and also won’t approach contention in 2019, it’s not surprising the Royals have shied away from major league free agency. They’ve instead taken less expensive routes to acquire potential bullpen pieces, having pulled in Michael Ynoa on a minor league deal, Sam McWilliams and Chris Ellis in the Rule 5 Draft and Conner Greene via waivers. Unfortunately, going by ZIPS projections, no one from that quartet looks like a promising bet to produce much in 2019. Likewise, ZIPS doesn’t have particularly high hopes for the majority of the Royals’ bullpen holdovers from 2018. The system does, however, like 23-year-old left-hander Richard Lovelady – who has turned in excellent minor league numbers but hasn’t yet reached the majors.
Marlins (minus-2.1 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): At 5.34, the Marlins’ relief corps managed the game’s worst ERA last year and the sport’s third-highest mark since 2009. The main culprits were Ben Meyer, Junichi Tazawa and Tyler Cloyd, who combined for 56 2/3 innings and each registered an ERA of at least 8.68. Tazawa and Cloyd are now out of the organization. Meyer, meanwhile, is still around, but he’s not even on Miami’s 40-man roster. But neither is righty Nick Wittgren, who led Marlins relievers in ERA (2.94) and FIP (3.13) in 33 2/3 frames last year. The Marlins made the odd choice to designate the 27-year-old Wittgren for assignment earlier this week to make room for the signing of infielder Neil Walker, who’s six years Wittgren’s senior and only under control for one season. Other notable contributors no longer in the mix include Kyle Barraclough (who nosedived in 2018 and was dealt to the Nationals in October), Brad Ziegler (Miami traded him to Arizona last July, and he has since retired) and Javy Guerra (now a Blue Jay after putting up a 5.55 ERA in 2018).
The best returning pieces in Miami’s bullpen look to be Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley, who each registered solid seasons in 2018. Otherwise, it’s a largely unproven cast – one that hasn’t picked up any major league free agents and seems likely to once again record below-average numbers this year. As with the Royals, the Marlins are rebuilding, so they’ve explored alternative paths for help. Thus far, they’ve acquired Nick Anderson (via trade with the Twins), Tyler Stevens (via trade with the Angels), minor league free agents R.J. Alvarez and Brian Moran, Rule 5 selection Riley Ferrell, and intriguing waiver claim Julian Fernandez.
Mets (minus-0.6 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Unlike the Royals and Marlins, the Mets are making a real effort to win in 2019. As a result, the bullpen has been a key area of focus for new Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who has swung a blockbuster trade to reel in arguably the best closer in baseball (ex-Mariner Edwin Diaz) and spent a combined $40MM on free agents Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson this winter. Diaz, Familia and Wilson will join Seth Lugo, who was outstanding in 2018, and Robert Gsellman to give the Mets no fewer than five capable relievers.
Perhaps the Mets will also benefit from less heralded pickups in Luis Avilan and Arquimedes Caminero, whom they signed to minors deals, and Rule 5 pick Kyle Dowdy. Regardless, New York’s new cast of relievers looks a whole lot better than last year’s bullpen, which relied too much on the likes of Paul Sewald, Jerry Blevins, Jacob Rhame, Tim Peterson and Anthony Swarzak, among other ineffective options, en route to a 4.96 ERA. Sewald, Rhame and Peterson are still in the organization, albeit as depth pieces, while Blevins and Swarzak are now gone. All things considered, ZIPS expects the Mets’ revamped bullpen to end up as one of the majors’ best in 2019.
Indians (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Cleveland found its way to another division title in 2018 despite its weak bullpen, which limped to a 4.60 ERA as innings leaders Cody Allen, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Neil Ramirez and Andrew Miller scuffled. Allen, McAllister and Miller are now gone, leaving the Indians with a bullpen that, in spite of the great Brad Hand‘s presence, still looks somewhat questionable. The club did well to re-up lefty Oliver Perez, whose 2018 renaissance earned him a guaranteed deal last month, though he’s the only major league free agent Cleveland has signed. The team also made a waiver claim for A.J. Cole, whose penchant for surrendering home runs led both the Nationals and Yankees to give up on him in the past eight months, and brought in veterans Justin Grimm and Brooks Pounders on minor league accords. Big league success has eluded Grimm and Pounders over the past couple years, however, so the Indians surely aren’t expecting significant contributions from either. Instead, their relief corps will count on returning Indians – potentially including flamethrower Danny Salazar, a starter from 2013-17 who missed all of last season because of shoulder problems. While Salazar could factor in at some point, it won’t be at the start of the season.
Nationals (plus-0.4 fWAR; projected season-opening bullpen): Washington, another prospective contender, has made a couple of interesting bullpen moves this offseason after last year’s underwhelming showing. In addition to trading for the hard-throwing Barraclough, who held his own from 2015-17, they inked fellow high-velocity righty Trevor Rosenthal to a $7MM guarantee in free agency. Rosenthal, 28, sat out all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the former Cardinals closer was mostly tremendous out of their bullpen from 2012-17.
Should a healthy Rosenthal return to form, it would be an enormous boon for the Nationals, who saw a different ex-Cards reliever – Greg Holland – experience a rebirth in their uniform last season. But after logging a microscopic 0.84 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in D.C., Holland joined the Diamondbacks in free agency. The Holland-less Nats are now slated to rely mostly on elite but oft-injured closer Sean Doolittle, Barraclough, Rosenthal, Justin Miller, Koda Glover, Sammy Solis and Matt Grace, with Tanner Rainey (acquired from the Reds for Tanner Roark) and minor league signings Vidal Nuno and J.J. Hoover around as depth. All said, it’s a high-risk, high-reward bunch, given the injuries Doolittle and Rosenthal have dealt with and the up-and-down performances of Barraclough, Miller, Glover, Solis and Grace.