Latest On Realmuto: Narrowed Market, 3-Team Possibilities With Mets/Padres
DEC. 15: Atlanta hasn’t discussed Realmuto with the Marlins in the past five days, and the Braves don’t plan on picking up talks again, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. That runs counter to a prior report suggesting the Braves are at the head of the race for Realmuto.
DEC. 13: The Marlins have made some progress in winnowing the field for backstop J.T. Realmuto, per Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). Still, though, six teams remain involved, per the report: the Reds, Mets, Rays, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres.
Certainly, the Mets have been the most visibly aggressive organization to this stage. The New York club has created quite a few off-the-wall possibilities along the way, some of which involve other teams. That makes it relatively unsurprising to hear that they’ve cycled back to prior talks with the Padres regarding Noah Syndergaard in a possible three-team deal, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).
Previously, the Mets reportedly danced around possible deals along these same lines with the Yankees. Also, earlier in the winter, the Mets and Pads were unable to line up on a two-team arrangement that would have sent Syndergaard out west, with the San Diego organization unwilling to part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. It seems quite unlikely that Tatis is now available, so presumably other pieces from a loaded Padres farm would be utilized.
While the Mets are obviously pushing to win in the near-term, the Marlins would certainly have the ability to be a bit more patient with pre-MLB assets. For the Padres, meanwhile, Syndergaard would obviously represent a much-sought-after staff ace. Importantly, too, he’d be under team control for three seasons at an affordable rate of pay.
It’s hard to gauge the likelihood of a deal coming together between this trio of teams, though, particularly with so many other previous scenarios falling apart and other organizations still involved. Presumably, the Marlins remain emboldened to continue holding Realmuto while waiting for a rival to jump at their reportedly high asking prices.
For now, the stalemate continues, though there’s obviously still quite a bit of movement afoot. As Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill puts it to Wells Dusenbury of the Sun-Sentinel (via Twitter), “anything can gain traction at any moment.” For the Mets, meanwhile, there continue to be ongoing reports that the team has interest in quite a few other backstops, and it’s at least questionable whether it’d be sensible to prioritize Realmuto if it means losing Syndergaard.
Phillies Interested In Mike Minor
SATURDAY: Texas is willing to trade Minor for “at least a couple” of Philadelphia’s top pitching prospects, TR Sullivan of MLB.com hears. If the Phillies were to acquire Minor, they’d likely use him as a starter, per Lauber.
FRIDAY: The Phillies are “pursuing a trade” with the Rangers to land southpaw Mike Minor, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It’s not yet clear how likely it is that a deal will come together.
Left-handed pitching has been one of several areas of focus for the Philadelphia organization this winter, with the club reportedly pursuing a variety of southpaw starters and relievers. As Lauber notes, it’s not clear whether the club would view Minor as a rotation or pen piece. Certainly, it’s possible that much of the appeal lies in his ability to occupy either role.
Minor signed on with the Texas organization last winter, wooed in part by the opportunity to return to a starting role after a nice bounceback campaign with the Royals as a reliever. He scored a $28MM deal over three seasons, with $19MM still to go over the coming two campaigns. That contract also includes limited no-trade protection, but it’s not clear if the Phillies are on his 10-team list — or, if so, whether that’d be expected to pose a barrier in talks.
Soon to turn 31 years of age, Minor turned in 157 innings of 4.18 ERA ball last year for the Rangers. That made him a useful asset, but perhaps not one that’d represent a major upgrade to a Phillies rotation that was mostly successful in 2018. Minor was not able to maintain all of the strides he had shown in 2017 when tasked with moving through orders multiple times.
Minor still threw harder (93.2 mph average fastball) than he did in his heyday with the Braves, but didn’t come close to matching the 95 mph heat he delivered in K.C. Meanwhile, his swinging-strike rate dropped from 11.8% in 2017 to 9.9% last year. It’s notable, too, that Minor has been much more effective against left-handed hitters.
The Phillies, who are said to be engaged on both Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, could see Minor as a possible multi-inning reliever and/or high-leverage lefty specialist. That he could always slide into the rotation, thus buttressing the team’s depth, is an appealing aspect that also distinguishes him from those other pitchers. Plus, Minor’s contract won’t hang a big number on the payroll for a lengthy term.
All of those concepts, of course, are also known to the Rangers and other possible suitors. It stands to reason that the Texas organization, which is presently working to re-tool its roster but has continued to invest in veteran pitching, would only be willing to move Minor if it can add truly worthwhile pieces in return.
Angels Sign Justin Bour
Dec. 15, 1:11 PM: The club has officially announced the signing.
Dec. 12, 7:37 PM: The Angels have struck a deal with first baseman Justin Bour, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). The ACES client will receive a $2.5MM salary, presumably on a one-year deal, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
Bour is an interesting addition for the Halos, who already have aging first baseman Albert Pujols (a right-handed hitter) and two-way star Shohei Ohtani (a lefty) on hand as DH options. It seems likely that Bour will take a significant share of the time at first base against right-handed pitching, perhaps squeezing Pujols out of regular plate appearances — at least, that is, if and when Ohtani is ready to return to action at the plate.
The 30-year-old Bour is an intriguing power option, having launched at least twenty long balls in three of the past four seasons. He has generally been quite a high-level offensive producer, though his numbers dipped in 2018 and he doesn’t add value with the other aspects of his game. Though Bour has at times graded as an average defender at first, he’s limited to that position defensively and is an abysmal baserunner.
Of course, this move is about the bat — particularly as it plays against right-handed pitching. In 1,248 career plate appearances with the platoon advantage, Bour carries an impressive .271/.355/.500 slash. It’s worth noting, too, that while his power fell off last year, and he struck out more than ever, Bour also boosted his walk rate to a career-best 14.6%.
Bour’s late-season swoon in 2018 surely did not help his cause, as he batted a lowly .224/.296/.347 in 54 plate appearances down the stretch for the Phillies after coming over from the Marlins. Of course, he also ran into a market situation that has generally been quite poor for lumbering sluggers.
There could certainly be some nice value here for the Halos, who needed to find a way to increase their offensive productivity as Pujols continues to trail off at this late stage of his career. The opportunity could be a good one for Bour as well, if he’s able to force his way into a major role with a Los Angeles club that is trying to capitalize on its remaining two years of control over superstar Mike Trout.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
White Sox Acquire Yonder Alonso
Dec 15: Both the White Sox and Indians have announced the deal (Twitter links).
Dec 14: The White Sox have reportedly struck a deal with the Indians to acquire first baseman Yonder Alonso. The match first arose on the WatchStadium Twitter account, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also now reporting an agreement on Twitter. Outfielder Alex Call will go to Cleveland in return, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links), with the Chicago org taking over all of Alonso’s remaining contract obligations.
Needless to say, the gears are turning when it comes to first base/DH sluggers, with the Indians, Mariners, Rays, and now the White Sox at the center of the action. Alonso’s spot on the Cleveland roster came into question with the club’s recent 3-team deal, which brought Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers to the organization.
The addition of Alonso also dovetails with some of the Chicago club’s other major pursuits. Certainly, adding a veteran hitter on a short-term deal goes along with the recent moves to pick up Ivan Nova and Alex Colome. Those additions help the near-term outlook and assist with the recruiting of bigger free-agent fish. Alonso, particularly, is of note, as he’s the brother in law of reputed White Sox target Manny Machado.
Alonso, 31, signed with the Indians last winter on a two-year pact that includes a club option. He’ll play on a $8MM salary in 2019, with a $9MM vesting/club option (or $1MM buyout) thereafter. Notably, that option vests if Alonso compiles 1,100 plate appearances over the two guaranteed seasons of the contract; after reaching 574 last year, he’s now 526 shy of locking in more money for 2021.
The first (and now only) season Alonso spent in Cleveland did not go quite as hoped. He had broken out in 2017 with a monster .266/.365/.501 slash and 28 home runs — quite a power burst for a player who had never before finished a MLB campaign with double-digit longballs. Though he put the ball over the fence 23 times in 2018, Alonso was unable to maintain the on-base percentage that had previously been his calling card as a hitter.
The White Sox will gamble that Alonso can return to something more like his 2017 output. To do so, he’ll need to reverse slides in his walk rate (13.1% to 8.9%) and isolated power (.235 to .171). Alonso put the ball in the air nearly as much as he had in his ’17 effort, but nearly doubled his number of infield flies (8.3% to 14.5%) and made an increasing amount of soft contact (13.2% to 19.8%).
Whether Alonso can make the necessary adjustments remains to be seen. It stands to reason that he’ll appear most frequently against right-handed pitching, as he carries yawning platoon splits. Presumably, the Sox will allow Alonso to share time at first base with Jose Abreu, who’ll be in the lineup every day regardless. It’d make sense to utilize another right-handed hitter when a lefty is on the bump.
For the Indians, this is all about tweaking the financials and roster to match up with other demands. By the reckoning of MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince (Twitter link), the Cleveland organization has pared back its 2019 payroll by something like $18MM with its recent slate of moves (particularly the above-noted deal, in which Edwin Encarncion was dealt away, and the decision to part with catcher Yan Gomes). There are still needs to be met on the roster, but now there’s additional flexibility to work with. Plus, as Castrovince notes, the Indians have now greatly reduced the pressures that had led them to consider dealing a top pitcher. While that possibility cannot be ruled out, perhaps the Indians will not be forced into settling for less than a compelling return.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Diamondbacks Sign Matt Szczur
The Diamondbacks have signed a minors deal with outfielder Matt Szczur, per an announcement from the club’s top affiliate. Szczur has been assigned to the Reno Aces to begin his tenure with the Arizona organization, but he’ll have a shot to earn a big league job in camp next spring.
Szczur, 29, has seen at least some time in each of the past five MLB campaigns, though he has totaled only about a full season’s worth of plate appearances in the aggregate. With a .231/.312/.355 career batting line, he’ll need to show quite a lot in Spring Training to crack the D-Backs’ roster. The former fifth-round pick is capable of playing all three outfield positions, increasing his versatility, but would be limited to the short side of a hypothetical platoon as he hits from the right side of the plate.
If he is able to make it back to the majors, Szczur will earn at a $950K rate, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll also have a pair of opt-out opportunities to force the hand of the Snakes or, perhaps, to strike out looking for work elsewhere.
Mets Notes: Grandal, Castellanos, Pollock
Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has not stopped knocking on a multitude doors as he keeps working to improve his just-inherited roster. The latest news involves the team’s efforts to upgrade behind the dish and to boost its outfield mix.
While J.T. Realmuto has been — and still is — a top target for the Mets, the club has also been connected to numerous other receiving possibilities on the open market. The New York org is “moving closer to resolution” of its catching situation, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter links).
As Van Wagenen and co. narrow their options, top free agent Yasmani Grandal is said to be a “very serious” possibility. That’d mean topping the market for a player who is among the best in baseball at his position — postseason foibles aside.
Certainly, Grandal would be more than an adequate consolation prize if Marlins star J.T. Realmuto can’t be had. The 30-year-old switch-hitter has posted a strong 116 wRC+ since the start of the 2016 season. Despite his well-documented issues with, well, catching the baseball in October, Grandal is a gifted overall defender. He frames about as well as anyone and is good at limiting the running game.
If the Mets aren’t able to add offense behind the plate, Van Wagenen has suggested, that’d increase the need to do so in the outfield. It seems the club would like a right-handed-hitting bat, preferably one capable of lining up in center defensively.
Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos certainly has the offensive game the Mets would desire, though he’s not an option up the middle and has graded quite poorly even in a corner. Still, the two teams have discussed trade scenarios, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press (Twitter link), with the Detroit organization maintaining a steep asking price to this point in talks, which remain ongoing with multiple clubs.
MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project Castellanos to earn $11.3MM in 2019, his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s a notable sum for a Mets club that’s seeking to pack in as much talent within its payroll limits (the specifics of which are not really known). But Castellanos would only require a single-season commitment, as he’ll be a free agent at the end of the ’19 campaign.
That’s not to say that the Mets have moved off of A.J. Pollock, who’d certainly be a cleaner fit for their roster but will require a much more significant commitment. Martino adds on Twitter that the club remains “serious” about the veteran center fielder as an option.
MLBTR graded both Grandal and Pollock among the ten best players on the open market this winter. We predicted that both would secure four-year deals, with the former at $64MM and the latter at $60MM.
Matt Chapman Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
The Athletics announced today that third baseman Matt Chapman has undergone surgery on his left shoulder. Specifically, a “distal clavicle resection” was performed, per the club announcement.
Thankfully, the outlook isn’t as scary as that technical description. Chapman is said to be only six weeks away from resuming swinging, so long as all goes according to plan. He’s also recovering from a mid-October thumb procedure but seems on track to return from that as well.
Chapman’s thumb problem had arisen during the season, while the shoulder issue only came to light while he was doing winter workouts. In any event, all told, it seems A’s can breathe easy with regard to the 25-year-old star, who’ll be looking to follow up on an immense 2018 season in which he was one of the most valuable players in the American League.
Padres Showing Interest In Dallas Keuchel
The Padres are interested in veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). That said, in a subsequent report, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell characterizes the level of interest as “pretty low.” (Twitter link.)
The San Diego organization has reportedly been searching for a higher-end starter all winter, but has yet to find a match. Keuchel, who’s closing in on his 31st birthday, is said to be looking for serious coin in free agency. It’s not yet known precisely what kind of average salary Keuchel is seeking — it seems reasonable to guess it’s in the range of $20MM — but he’s reportedly hoping for a five or even six -year term.
The Friars aren’t interested at the current price tag, says Lin. That’s not surprising to hear, as it’s frankly hard to imagine any team going well north of $100MM to land Keuchel. While he was outstanding in 2017 and (especially) 2015, Keuchel struggled in 2016 and was more good than great last year. With drops in his rates of swinging strikes (8.3%) and groundballs (53.7%) in 2018, there’s at least some cause for trepidation.
That being said, Keuchel still looks to be a high-quality rotation piece who’d improve any team. It helps that he nudged back over 200 frames last season, seemingly putting some prior shoulder and neck issues in the rearview mirror.
Still, it’s good for Keuchel to have another participant in his market. The Nats are reportedly involved to some extent, as are the Reds, Phillies, Blue Jays, and perhaps the Braves. While the Pads may not seem to be a likely landing spot at first glance, they did land Eric Hosmer (another Scott Boras client) last winter and have made clear they’re interested in beginning to make tangible progress at the MLB level.
Cubs, Cardinals Pursuing Daniel Descalso
The Cubs are “in strong pursuit” of Daniel Descalso, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). They’ll have interesting company in the bidding, though, as the division-rival Cardinals are also involved on their former infielder, as previously rumored and as Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets.
Descalso, 32, was a mainstay with the Cards for several years, but has spent the past four seasons out west with the Rockies and D-Backs. In that time, the veteran has not only spread his wings a bit defensively but heated up a bit with his left-handed bat.
Known primarily as a utility infielder, Descalso has now spent a fair amount of time in the corner outfield. It’s likely that these and other clubs will mostly value him for his ability to field any position on the dirt, but it surely doesn’t hurt that he’s now familiar with left field.
At the plate, Descalso has earned a rather expansive role in Arizona by producing sturdy on-base numbers. He’s still a clearly below-average hitter over the course of his career, but Descalso has also perhaps shown some newfound abilities at the plate as an acolyte of the flyball revolution.
Last year, Descalso popped a career-high 13 long balls and turned in a healthy .198 ISO — well north of anything he had shown previously. An aggressive new approach also resulted in quite a few more strikeouts (26.0%) than usual, but Descalso more than made up for that by setting new career marks (by a wide margin) with a 15.1% walk rate and 43.1% hard-contact rate. The results — a .238/.353/.436 slash — were impressive.
Given those changes, and Descalso’s preexisting reputation as a reliable veteran and generally solid defender, it’s not hard to see why these two contending clubs have interest. Presumably, others do as well, though the infield market is still quite overloaded with possibilities.
MLBTR Poll: How Much Will Dallas Keuchel Earn In Free Agency?
The starting pitching market is off to a rather solid start, even if the movement hasn’t exactly been fast and furious. Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi topped MLBTR’s predicted contract values, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton appear to be landing in range of their own anticipated prices, and Lance Lynn scored a surprising three-year pact.
We’ve seen former Astros lefty linked to a variety of teams, but his market has not been as hot as those of some other hurlers. Multiple reports have the Reds and Phillies in the mix. The Blue Jays are involved, though it’s fair to wonder to what extent. The Braves have been connected, and disconnected. It’s certainly not hard to imagine some other clubs with interest, though we clearly haven’t seen a bidding war develop to this point.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Keuchel would secure a four-year, $82MM deal, with the bet being that teams would be willing to promise him a significant AAV but not a terribly long term entering his age-31 campaign. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs pegged the value just a shade higher than we did, at 4/$84MM .Others were somewhat more bullish, with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and his anonymous expert predicting a five-year pact in the $95MM to $105MM range.
Given how the market has developed to this point, what do you expect? Will Keuchel find himself frozen out of the biggest contracts? Do the early signings set the stage for a big payday? Or, perhaps, is he still on track to land where MLBTR guessed at the start of the offseason? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)
Estimate Dallas Keuchel's Free Agent Contract
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Something in the range of the four-year, $82MM MLBTR prediction 42% (5,631)
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It'll end up being a disappointment, but still a big ($50MM+) contract 33% (4,441)
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He'll get to five years and perhaps even reach $100MM 15% (1,925)
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Keuchel is headed for a pillow contract or weak multi-year deal 10% (1,263)
Total votes: 13,260