Royals Sign Terrance Gore, Designate Rosell Herrera
The Royals announced today that they have inked a deal with outfielder Terrance Gore. Meanwhile, utilityman Rosell Herrera was designated for assignment to create roster space.
Gore has secured a one-year, MLB pact that comes with a split salary, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). He will earn at a $350K rate in the minors and a $650K rate in the big leagues.
The 27-year-old Gore is a five-year MLB veteran, but has taken just 19 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. While he’s valued for his blistering speed and instincts on the bases and in the field, Gore has a track record of abysmal offensive numbers in the minors.
Given that profile, it’s a bit of a surprise to see the out-of-options Gore occupying a 40-man roster spot for a Royals club that seems to have little hope of near-term contention. That’s all the more true given that the club already added speed demon Billy Hamilton, who is expected to command the bulk of the playing time in center.
When the Royals inked Hamilton, they emphasized the need to cover ground at hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium, so perhaps there’s a niche for Gore as well if the club decides to take things to an extreme position. (He’d be a platoon match for the left-handed-hitting Hamilton, it’s worth noting.) Certainly, the K.C. team knows him as well as anyone, having employed him exclusively since 2011, excepting a late-2018 run with the Cubs. If Gore does ultimately end up on the big league roster, he’ll pair with Hamilton, Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi to give manager Ned Yost a fleet-footed quartet that is unparalleled in terms of raw speed and baserunning ability.
As for Herrera, 26, he’s capable of lining up just about anywhere defensively, but hasn’t generally shown much with the bat. He slashed .234/.286/.317 in his first 302 MLB plate appearances last year. That said, Herrera has at times exhibited promising plate discipline as well as speed and even some power (16 home runs in 2013), so it’s still possible he’ll put some things together and emerge as a worthwhile MLB performer.
Carlos Beltran To Join Yankees Front Office
The Yankees are hiring recently retired ballplayer Carlos Beltran to a front office role, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Beltran will serve as a special advisor to GM Brian Cashman.
Last we heard, Beltran had declined a similar opportunity with the New York club last offseason. At the time, of course, he had only just wrapped up his illustrious, two-decade MLB career.
Beltran certainly was entitled to some time away from the game, but it has long seemed he’d remain engaged in some capacity. Indeed, the Yanks even considered him for their open managerial post, with Beltran indicating real interest in that demanding job.
It’ll be interesting to see what path the 41-year-old Beltran takes in his post-playing career, which is only just getting under way. As Feinsand notes, one of his first assignments could well be to help the Yanks lure Manny Machado, who shares an agent with Beltran.
Rangers Sign Lance Lynn
DECEMBER 18, 12:30pm: The Texas club has announced the signing.
11:41am: Lynn will receive a $4MM signing bonus, along with salaries of $8MM, $10MM, and $8MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The deal also includes a one-time $100K assignment bonus in the event that Lynn is shipped out west (to the Angels, Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Padres, Athletics, Giants, or Mariners).
DECEMBER 12: The Rangers are nearing a deal with veteran free agent hurler Lance Lynn, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). It’s said to be a rather surprising three-year arrangement with a strong $30MM guarantee, with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adding the financial details on Twitter.
Last winter, Lynn seemed in line for a significant, long-term deal before he settled for a pillow contract with the Twins. After turning in middling results in the ensuing campaign, it did not seem likely he’d get a terribly lengthy arrangement this time around.
MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM pact. That felt terribly rich to anyone that failed to look beneath his 4.77 ERA from 2018. But Lynn did show some intriguing underlying numbers, particularly after landing with the Yankees in a mid-season swap. To be sure, Lynn continued to post suboptimal bottom-line numbers in New York. But he racked up a 61:14 K/BB ratio in his 54 1/3 innings, a notable improvement in that regard over his career numbers that was perhaps linked to some changes in his pitch usage patterns. Lynn also drew grounders at a career-best 49.7% rate over the course of the season.
There’s also a broader track record to consider. The veteran righty had long turned in impressive campaigns with the Cardinals, never once averaging over four earned per nine in his six seasons in St. Louis and wrapping up his time there with a 3.38 ERA in nearly one thousand frames. Lynn was even typically effective upon returning from Tommy John surgery in 2017. But ERA estimators did not buy into that version of the hurler (4.82 FIP, 4.75 xFIP, 4.85 SIERA), which made it somewhat unsurprising to see his market collapse in the ensuing winter.
In any event, the market clearly valued Lynn’s impressive late showing with the Yanks this time around, which helps even things out for the former first overall draft pick. It’s the second consecutive season in which the Rangers have given out a reasonably aggressive three-year contract for a starting pitcher, with last winter’s Mike Minor deal working out well thus far.
Of course, the Texas staff still faces questions, but this move changes the complexion of the unit. In addition to Minor and now Lynn, the Rangers will feature TJ-returnees Drew Smyly and Edinson Volquez. All of those four veterans have had notable successes at times, but each has also endured health issues and performance lapses in the recent past. The Rangers could compete the remaining job among younger pitchers, or might continue dabbling with the utilization of an opener.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Market Notes: Ross, Harper, Phillies, Realmuto, Minor
Long-time backstop David Ross has agreed to a new, multi-year deal to continue working as an analyst with ESPN. That news would seem to eliminate him from contention as a possible Cubs bench coach target, which is no surprise given recent indications. It would also appear to suggest that Ross won’t be looking to move into a dugout in the near future, though he’ll no doubt remain a popular candidate for significant gigs every time there’s an opening.
Let’s check in on the latest market notes …
- The Dodgers‘ interest in star free agent Bryce Harper remains a storyline to watch. The Los Angeles club doesn’t seem inclined to tantalize Harper with a record-setting overall guarantee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests (subscription link). Rather, the club would be more interested in a shorter-term pact with a “high” average annual value and multiple opt-out clauses along the way. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez heard largely the same late last week, while adding a few intriguing additional details. Harper “badly wants to be a Dodger,” says Gonzalez, but would have to sacrifice years and dollars in order to make that dream a reality. That also meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Buster Olney, wherein Olney suggested that a front-loaded deal with a huge annual value could be the most appealing scenario to Los Angeles. Details are understandably sparse at this point, but generally, it stands to reason that if Harper and agent Scott Boras were to consider anything shy of a record-setting contract in terms of overall value and/or length, they’d likely need to establish a new high-water mark in terms of AAV by a considerable margin. That doesn’t seem like something that Harper’s camp would consider until a ways down the line, however, as Boras & Co. are quite likely still locked in on a longer-term mega-deal. The timeline for Harper’s signing remains unclear at the moment.
- Harper and Manny Machado will continue to fascinate until they sign, but with both still holding in-person meetings it could take a while for that to come together. What that may mean for the Phillies is worth pondering, as the organization has its sights set on significant improvements in multiple areas. Club president Andy MacPhail says there’s still ongoing interest in both stars, but also notes “there are a lot of different ways to improve,” as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Citing a need to “give yourself enough latitude to deal with each offseason as it comes,” MacPhail certainly struck a somewhat different tone than owner John Middleton did recently. In part, he sought to emphasize the more restrained elements of Middleton’s comments — particularly, those indicating that the club does not feel it must land Harper and/or Machado to have had a productive offseason.
- The Astros are “back in the mix” for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). It’s fair to wonder whether the Houston club was ever really fully out of the hunt. The club did add Robinson Chirinos and still has Max Stassi on hand, but that combination surely isn’t sufficient to sap the ‘Stros’ interest in the top catcher in the game. Perhaps it’s not out of the question that the club would consider carrying three catchers if they swing a blockbuster, with Realmuto perhaps representing an option in the DH/first base mix and Chirinos also providing a potent bench bat against left-handed pitching (.258/.353/.485 career slash). Whatever the plan would be, the Astros first need to land Realmuto. As Frisaro hints, the club’s reported deal with Michael Brantley could be seen as an indication that top prospect Kyle Tucker — who’d surely be of keen interest to the Fish — might just be available. Of course, as Frisaro also notes, a variety of other teams remain in pursuit of Realmuto at this stage.
- The Brewers nearly struck a deal with the Rangers for Mike Minor, Rosenthal further reports (subscription link), though it’s largely unclear what shape such an agreement would have taken and whether talks are still open. For Milwaukee, the connection makes clear that boosting the pitching mix remains a goal of the offseason. The organization has quite a few solid pieces in place, many of which could be utilized as needed in the rotation, in the bullpen, or as minor-league depth. Minor would certainly fit that general mold, as he has shown the ability to function as a high-quality reliever or solid back-of-the-rotation starter in recent years. It’s notable that the Texas org seems to be batting around multiple trade scenarios on the lefty, even in a winter in which they have taken further risks on other veteran hurlers.
Checking In On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent Predictions
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently pointed out, at this time last year we had seen no open-market movement from the top of the free-agent pool. There’s still quite a lot of work to be done with regard to the current crop of players, but there also has been quite a bit more movement. With ten of the top twenty players listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list now having reportedly agreed to terms, it’s a good time to check in on how the market is developing.
Here are the deals that have reportedly been struck do date, not all of which have been finalized:
3. Patrick Corbin, SP — Predicted: 6 years, $129MM. Signed: 6 years, $140MM.
7. Nathan Eovaldi, SP — Predicted: 4 years, $60MM. Signed: 4 years, $68MM.
9. J.A. Happ, SP — Predicted: 3 years, $48MM. Signed: 2 years, $34MM.
10. Michael Brantley, OF — Predicted: 3 years, $45MM. Signed: 2 years, $32MM.
11. Andrew McCutchen, OF — Predicted: 3 years, $45MM. Signed: 3 years, $50MM.
13. Josh Donaldson, 3B — Predicted: 1 year, $20MM. Signed: 1 year, $23MM.
14. Charlie Morton, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $32MM. Signed: 2 years, $30MM.
15. Wilson Ramos, C — Predicted: 3 years, $36MM. Signed: 2 years, $19MM.
17. Jeurys Familia, RP — Predicted: 3 years, $33MM. Signed: 3 years, $30MM.
20. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP — Predicted: 3 years, $33MM. Signed: 1 year, $17.9MM.
25. Joe Kelly, RP — Predicted: 3 years, $27MM. Signed: 3 years, $25MM.
36. Lance Lynn, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $16MM. Signed: 3 years, $30MM.
43. Garrett Richards, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $10MM. Signed: 2 years, $15.5MM.
44. Jesse Chavez, RP — Predicted: 2 years, $10MM. Signed: 2 years, $8MM.
45. CC Sabathia, SP — Predicted: 1 year, $8MM. Signed: 1 year, $8MM.
48. Kurt Suzuki, C — Predicted: 2 years, $8MM. Signed: 2 years, $10MM.
Total — Predicted: $560MM. Signed: $540.4MM.
It’s possible to look at that slate of signings and believe that the market is humming along. Perhaps the biggest point in favor of an optimistic outlook from the players’ perspective is the fact that many early moves seem to have set teams up for yet more acquisitions. Few if any teams appear “done” with their shopping at this point.
Of course, one could also argue that the earliest-to-sign free agents naturally outperformed expectations, since strong early interest is what drove their market. It could be that other names on the T50 list will find tougher going. Plus, the top of the position-player market and much of the relief market remain unresolved. And there’s a big group of mid-level free agents (and below) that are still waiting to see how things will shake out up top.
Timing is also an interesting topic to consider. Players are no doubt resolved not to allow the ticking clock to become too strong a lever for teams, who made clear last winter that patience isn’t going to be in short supply. Perhaps there’s still some feeling-out to be done in light of last year’s market shock, and there’s at least one significant trade chip (J.T. Realmuto) who could be holding things up a bit, but we may also simply be in an era when more of the offseason business tends to be completed later on the calendar.
MLBTR Poll: Andrew McCutchen / Michael Brantley Contracts
As the MLBTR team put together this year’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, it became clear that there were a few bunchings of multiple players in similar market positions. That’s apparent most obviously at the top, where Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both trying to push the bounds of what a 26-year-old star can earn (albeit at different positions), and in the sub-elite tier of the relief market, where there are a variety of very good pitchers who possess at least one or two obvious limitations on value.
It may be, though, that the tightest race between any two players — at least, in terms of ink spilled in relation to the level of contract we were debating — was between Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley. Proof? Tim Dierkes wrote Steve Adams and me an email on October 25th entitled, “Brantley vs Cutch revisited.”
In such situations, at some point, you’re forced to pick between the players — unless you take the easy way out (as I often do in our summer trade ranking list!) by grouping multiple players at one spot. Since Tim is made of sterner stuff than I, he was determined to put one ahead of the other — even if they ended up at the same predicted contract, as ultimately proved to be the case. I thought it’d be interesting to look back at some of our lengthy debate on the topic, and use it as a jumping-off point for a poll now that we’ve seen both players agree to deals.
It was something of an upset that Tim decided to place Brantley first. After all, he led off that aforementioned email with a series of power arguments that’d make Cutch’s agents blush: McCutchen has more power, doesn’t have platoon issues, “is indestructible,” and is a more versatile defender. Pop, offensive balance, durability, flexibility … seemed like a closed case.
Of course, there are counter-arguments in favor of Brantley, and Steve was happy to provide them in exhaustive detail. He summed up the main thrust of his viewpoint thusly: “Even if you look at their last three seasons, the only thing Cutch has on Brantley is volume of games played. Brantley has been a better hitter (same wRC+, but I’ll take the one that comes with a .300 average and half the strikeout rate) and a wildly better baserunner and defender.” With a slight age advantage to boot, there was quite a bit to like about Brantley.
It was a lively debate — and one that I was glad mostly to sit out while making observations that would keep me in the good graces of both of the warring MLBTR factions. Pro-Brantley: “He doesn’t walk. But he has super-elite contact ability that has allowed him to be a steadily outstanding producer of OBP.” Pro-Cutch: “.360+ OBP the past two years and still above-average power (which might play up in a smaller park). Plate discipline is as good as ever. Durability is a very fair point as well. Lack of platoon splits is nice.”
Ultimately, we predicted three-year, $45MM deals for both players. But that’s not how it has turned out. McCutchen secured a surprisingly hefty $50MM guarantee from the Phillies, who’ll bank on him as a steady and reliable (if not literally “indestructible”) asset for at least the next three seasons. That left us feeling optimistic about Brantley’s market, but word emerged this evening that he will not secure a third guaranteed season, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $32MM-ish deal with the Astros. Though Houston wants to get the bat in the lineup as much as possible, it wasn’t forced to take on extra injury risk with another promised campaign in order to lure Brantley.
All that being said … how do you view the predictions and signings? (Response order randomized; poll link for app users.)
How Would You Characterize The McCutchen & Brantley Outcomes?
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Phillies overpaid; Astros got good value 64% (12,393)
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Astros took more risk; Phillies got the better/more reliable player 20% (3,849)
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Both contracts are fair -- MLBTR just whiffed on its predictions! 17% (3,240)
Total votes: 19,482
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/17/18
Here are some of the day’s notable minor transactions …
- The Yankees have a minors deal in place with veteran southpaw Rex Brothers, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Brothers, who’ll turn 31 tomorrow, still has an intriguingly high-powered left arm — he pumped 97 in his lone MLB appearance in 2018 — that’s capable of racking up swings and misses. Unfortunately, Brothers has also been exceedingly prone to issuing free passes over his career. Last year, at Triple-A, he recorded a 56:44 K/BB ratio in 40 2/3 frames. It’s an extreme profile, but the Yanks will take a shot at trying to harness the upside. At a minimum, the team will add an experienced reliever to its depth mix.
- As expected, the Royals have brought back a trio of recently non-tendered (non-arb-eligible) players. The club announced minor-league pact with former top prospect Bubba Starling, righty Jason Adam, and first bagger Samir Duenez. Starling, certainly, is the most notable member of this group given his status as a former fifth overall draft pick. He’s now 26 years of age and still trying t work things out in the upper minors. The Royals are obviously still pleased with his effort level and think there may be something more in the tank. At a minimum, the organization would surely like to see what he can do if he’s at full health for a complete season.
Yankees Pay CC Sabathia $500K Bonus For 2018 Season
It largely goes without saying that the Yankees enjoy a warm relationship with veteran lefty CC Sabathia, but the point was driven home again today. As Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports, the club recently paid Sabathia a $500K bonus for his work in 2018 that was not technically required by his contract.
You may recall that Sabathia was tossed from a late-September start — his final of the season — for plunking an opponent in retaliation. When he did so, Sabathia cost himself a clear shot at reaching his 155th inning on the season and thereby triggering a $500K bonus. He also endeared himself yet further to his teammates and got his money’s worth on the way off the mound.
It turns out that the Yanks quietly slipped Sabathia a check for the $500K even though the incentive provision was not actually triggered. That’s but a fraction of the monstrous sum the organization has paid the lefty over the years. It seems that pushes him past the $216MM mark over ten years in the Bronx, with another $8MM still to come for his 2019 efforts after the sides lined up on their fourth separate contractual arrangement.
Still, it’s a nice chunk of change. Sabathia’s rep says that the southpaw “was very appreciative.” Yankees GM Brian Cashman indicated that “it was something that we did very private and weren’t looking to publicize.” As Blum notes, the existence of the payment was only sussed out because of the team’s luxury tax filings.
Mets Sign Rajai Davis
The Mets announced today that they have inked a minor-league deal with veteran outfielder Rajai Davis. He’ll receive an invitation to Spring Training.
The 38-year-old Davis has played in the big leagues for each of the past 13 seasons. He’s known best for his quality glovework and game-changing speed, with 415 career stolen bases in just over fourteen-hundred total games.
Given those other carrying skills, Davis has carried a respectable-enough .262/.311/.379 slash for his career, which translates to an 86 wRC+. Unfortunately, he has dipped beneath that average in each of the past three seasons. In 2018, Davis managed only a .224/.278/.281 batting line.
With his work at the plate lagging, Davis received only 216 plate appearances last year — his lowest tally since he got his first, brief taste of the bigs in 2006. Still, the Indians found a way to get him into 101 games, which speaks to the other ways he can still contribute.
No doubt Davis had interest from other organizations, many of which surely would have seen him as among the more appealing depth options available without the commitment of a 40-man roster spot. That the Mets landed him seemingly indicates that the veteran sees a real chance to earn MLB time in New York if he shows well in camp. Of course, the expectation remains that other moves will still impact the Mets’ outfield picture.
Pirates Sign Jordan Lyles
The Pirates have added some depth to their rotation mix, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Jordan Lyles to a one-year contract. The Ballengee Group client will reportedly receive a guaranteed $2.05MM salary.
“We are pleased to add Jordan Lyles to our Major League pitching staff,” said GM Neal Huntington in a statement accompanying the announcement. “Jordan has always had a quality pitch arsenal, and given his success after adjusting how he used his pitches during the 2018 season, he will have a legitimate opportunity to earn a spot in our rotation in 2019. We look forward to helping Jordan continue to bridge the gap between potential and performance.”
This move seems to represent a bid to backfill the Bucs’ pitching depth after trading Ivan Nova to the White Sox last week. Lyles likely won’t be promised a rotation spot in Pittsburgh, but he could compete for one in camp and will at least function as a long relief or swingman option. With Huntington saying that the organization is dabbling with the idea of an opener, Lyles could be a particularly interesting fit for the roster.
Lyles turned in a somewhat interesting 2018 season, though his broader track record isn’t all that impressive. The 28-year-old posted a personal-high 10.3% swinging-strike rate this past season, with a modified pitch mix seemingly help to boost that aspect of his game. He won’t turn 29 until next October, so if Lyles turns in a solid season in Pittsburgh, he could elevate his status in advance of a return trip through free agency next winter at a still-desirable age.
That’s not to say the results were universally positive; Lyles didn’t quite turn the corner in an eight-game run as a starter with the Padres. But he was rather effective in a relief role, with a 3.32 ERA over 40 2/3 total innings in 28 appearances. Some kind of multi-inning role other than that of a traditional starter could maximize Lyles’s skill set. At present, the Pittsburgh rotation likely consists of Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and Nick Kingham, though there are alternatives on hand for those final two spots. In addition to Lyles, the Pirates got their first look at Clay Holmes in 2018, and the organization has one of the game’s most promising pitching prospects in the form of right-hander Mitch Keller.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter), and Fancred’s Jon Heyman reported the agreement and terms (Twitter links).