Poll: Will Cedric Mullins Sustain His Hot Start?
There wasn’t much for Orioles fans to be excited about back in 2021, as they ultimately lost 110 games that season. Center fielder Cedric Mullins was the exception to that, however, as the then-26-year-old broke out in a big way that year with a .291/.360/518 slash line in 159 games while playing strong defense in center. Flash forward to 2025 and while the Orioles are certainly not going to lose 110 games, their fans are once again staring down disappointment as their 10-17 record puts them dead last in the AL East. Amid that disappointment, however, Mullins is once again emerging as a bright spot.
Now in his age-30 season, the club’s center fielder is putting on by far the best offensive performance of his career. He’s slashing .279/.421/.547 in his first 107 trips to the plate, production that’s good for an incredible 185 wRC+. His six home runs put him on pace for a career-best mark over a full season, and he’s pairing that surge in power with a massive 17.8% walk rate while maintaining a fairly low 19.6% strikeout rate. He remains an impressive baserunner as well, with five stolen bases in six attempts, and that entire offensive package has been paired with his typically-stellar defense.
In all, it’s the sort of scorching start that would be MVP-caliber if maintained over a full season; only Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have posted more fWAR than Mullins in the AL this year. That sort of season would not only help the Orioles get back into the conversation for a playoff spot, but it would be game-changing for Mullins himself ahead of his first foray into free agency this winter. In a free agent class that has long looked relatively light on quality offensive options, a strong offensive season for Mullins could earn him quite the raise on the open market as was the case for fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar this past offseason following their own strong walk years.
Just how feasible is it for Mullins to maintain this production? Some of it certainly looks sustainable. He’s posting a career-high in hard-hit rate (40.0%) while posting his best barrel rate (7.7%) since his 30-homer campaign in 2021, so there’s some reason for optimism about his power increase. His .305 BABIP is within spitting distance of his .290 career mark, and a 20.3% line drive rate (his best since 2020) provides an easy explanation for the slight increase. In general, Mullins is elevating the ball more than he ever has before in his career with a ground ball rate of just 26.6% and a launch angle of 24.1 degrees, both career-best marks. With that said, his aforementioned barrel and hard-hit rates are both still below league average and seem unlikely to keep generating homers at quite this level and his .423 expected slugging percentage is more than 100 points below his actual figure.
While the sustainability of Mullins’ newfound power is questionable, his improved plate discipline is backed up by underlying numbers. Mullins is swinging just 42.1% of the time, the lowest figure he’s posted since his debut season in 2018, and most of that patience has come against pitches outside of the zone. He’s swinging at balls outside the strike zone just 20.7% of the time, and he’s combined that with a knack for making contact on pitches in the zone, connecting on 90.8% of his in-zone swings. It’s led to a swinging-strike rate of just 7.5% so far this year and, while his gargantuan 17.8% walk rate will almost certainly come down at some point, it’s easy to imagine this sort of approach resulting in a career-best walk rate for Mullins, who walked in just 8.1% of his career plate appearances entering this season.
While some regression appears all but guaranteed to come for Mullins eventually, there’s enough real improvements to his approach that it’s not hard to imagine him matching or perhaps even surpassing his career-best 2021 campaign. Mullins’ .366 xwOBA, while nearly 60 points below his current wOBA, is actually 22 points higher than his 2021 figure and by far the best of his career. That expected number puts Mullins in the same ballpark as players like Witt, Seiya Suzuki, and Francisco Lindor this year, and it’s in line with the production of Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, and Corey Seager at the plate last season.
How do MLBTR readers think Mullins’ platform season will play out? Will he enter free agency coming off of a career year, end up in line with his 2021 numbers, or regress back to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:
How will Cedric Mullins perform in 2025?
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He'll post a season more or less in line with his career-best 2021 season (136 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR) 41% (670)
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He'll regress to his career norms by the end of the season (107 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR) 38% (630)
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He'll post the best season of his career, eclipsing 2021. 21% (338)
Total votes: 1,638
Orioles Promote Kade Strowd For Major League Debut
The Orioles announced that right-hander Kade Strowd has been recalled to the big league club. He will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. Left-hander Grant Wolfram was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk as the corresponding move.
Strowd, 27, was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. A 12th-round pick from 2019, he has been a reliever throughout his minor league career. He does have three starts but they were all at the lower levels and of the opener variety.
At the upper levels, he has generally been able to get decent amounts of strikeouts and ground balls, but with some control issues. From the beginning of 2023 to the present, he has 116 2/3 innings pitched between Double-A and Triple-A. He has a 5.55 earned run average and 11.9% walk rate in that time but a 29.1% strikeout rate and ground balls on about half the balls in play he’s allowed.
So far this year, he has ten innings pitched at Triple-A with an unsightly 8.10 ERA. However, his .481 batting average on balls in play and 36.1% strand rate are both far to the unlucky side in that small sample. He has struck out 36% of batters faced this year and kept his walk rate down to 8%.
For Baltimore, the pitching staff got a lot of usage recently. Their game on Friday was postponed by rain to Saturday, meaning they played three games in the past two days. Wolfram pitched on both days and might not have been available for tonight’s contest, so Strowd comes up to give them a fresh arm. It could be a brief stay for Strowd, since the O’s don’t have a starter listed for tomorrow and Kyle Gibson is on the taxi squad, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. If Gibson gets the ball, then someone will need to be bumped off the active roster.
Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images
Orioles Claim Walter Pennington
The Orioles have claimed left-hander Walter Pennington off unconditional release waivers, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. The Rangers had designated the lefty for assignment last week. His transaction tracker at MLB.com listed him as released by the Rangers over the weekend but the O’s put in a claim. The Orioles had an open 40-man spot and won’t need to make a corresponding move.
Pennington, 27, made his major league debut with the Royals last year but was flipped to the Rangers in July as part of the Michael Lorenzen trade. Between those two clubs, he tossed 18 innings in the big leagues last year. He allowed 3.00 earned runs per nine, with a 20.2% strikeout rate, 13.1% walk rate and 45.3% ground ball rate. He has posted some strong minor league numbers in recent years. Over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, he logged 134 innings on the farm with a 2.69 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and grounders on more than half of the balls in play he allowed.
This year, Pennington hasn’t pitched in any official action. The Rangers optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock on March 9th. Per his transactions tracker, he was transferred to the club’s Arizona Complex League affiliate on March 28th. MLBTR has learned that he is healthy and has been working on some mechanical stuff in extended spring lately.
The O’s had an open roster spot and are intrigued enough to bring him into their system, with the southpaw likely reported to Triple-A Norfolk soon. The Orioles aren’t hurting for lefty relievers, as they currently have Keegan Akin, Gregory Soto, Cionel Pérez and Grant Wolfram on the big league squad. Still, clubs always like to add more pitching depth when they can and both Pérez and Wolfram have poor numbers at the moment.
Photo courtesy of Joe Camporeale, Imagn Images
Orioles Place Tyler O’Neill On 10-Day Injured List
The Orioles announced that outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to neck inflammation. The placement is retroactive to April 24. Outfielder Dylan Carlson was called up from Triple-A to take O’Neill’s place on the 26-man roster.
O’Neill didn’t play in Baltimore’s game on Thursday and presumably wouldn’t have played yesterday either, had the Orioles’ game with the Tigers not been rained out. Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun) that the IL placement was meant “to get [O’Neill] right” and completely over his neck soreness, though the outfielder isn’t expected to miss more than the minimum 10 days.
Signed to a three-year, $49.5MM guarantee in December, O’Neill was the biggest acquisition of the Orioles’ offseason, though the deal could end up being a one-year, $16.5MM pact if O’Neill triggers an opt-out clause at season’s end. After hitting his customary Opening Day home run, O’Neill has yet to really get rolling this season, as he has hit only two homers in total while batting .215/.284/.385 in 74 plate appearances. The outfielder’s walk and hard-contact rates are down, and he has continued his high-strikeout ways with a 28.4% strikeout rate.
O’Neill’s .337 xwOBA is much higher than his .293 wOBA, so there is at least some evidence that he has just been somewhat unlucky in the season’s first month. His IL stint might well act as an unofficial reset point for O’Neill’s 2025 season and Orioles tenure, once his neck heals up.
Grayson Rodriguez Diagnosed With Mild Lat Strain
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde provided an update on Grayson Rodriguez before tonight’s loss to the Nationals. The right-hander was diagnosed with a mild strain in his right lat, relays Jake Rill of MLB.com. The O’s hope he can resume a throwing program within a few weeks.
The team announced last week that Rodriguez was going for a second opinion after experiencing shoulder soreness. He’d begun the season on the injured list because of elbow inflammation. The shoulder discomfort arose during his rehab process. It’s not an entirely new development, however. Rodriguez sustained a lat strain while he was a prospect midway through the 2022 season. Shoulder discomfort sidelined him early last year, while lat soreness ended his season in August.
It’ll now be at least a few weeks before Rodriguez is able to throw again. He’ll presumably be starting from scratch at that point, so he’s almost certainly going to be out into June at the earliest. It’s not the worst-case situation, but it’s another hit to a floundering Baltimore rotation. Rodriguez is arguably the O’s best starter. He posted a 3.86 ERA while striking out 26.5% of opponents across 20 starts last season.
Baltimore’s rotation carried an MLB-worst 6.22 earned run average into play Wednesday. Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been their most effective healthy starter, managed seven innings of three-run ball tonight. That’ll help the rotation’s rate stats, but the O’s were unable to capitalize on his solid outing in an eventual 4-3 loss. They’ve dropped three in a row to fall to 9-14.
Cade Povich goes against MacKenzie Gore tomorrow as they try to avoid a sweep. They’ll likely turn to rookie Brandon Young to open a weekend set against Detroit on Friday. Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer — both of whom have been hit hard — would be on schedule to finish the series. The O’s have been without Opening Day starter Zach Eflin for two weeks because of a low-grade lat strain of his own. Hyde said that Eflin will progress to bullpen sessions later this week (via Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun).
The Orioles’ Struggling Rotation
The Orioles remade their rotation in the offseason, but to the extent hoped for by Baltimore fans. Corbin Burnes departed in free agency, netting a compensatory draft pick, but the front office opted to go with a series of older veterans on one-year deals to round out the staff. Charlie Morton signed for $15MM. Longtime NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano landed a $13MM guarantee. Old friend Kyle Gibson signed late, inking a $5MM deal in late March. It was a big bet on in-house arms taking a step forward and on some older free agents fending off Father Time for another season.
That bet hasn’t paid off.
Baltimore starters have the worst earned run average in the majors, checking in at 6.11. Their combined 15.4% strikeout rate is also last in the majors, as is their 7.9% swinging-strike rate. No team’s rotation has allowed home runs at a higher rate than the Orioles’ 1.86 HR/9, and only two have yielded higher marks in terms of average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Sugano and Zach Eflin are the only two Orioles starters with an ERA under 6.00. Sugano’s 9.2% strikeout rate is the third-lowest among all starters with at least 10 innings, leading only Antonio Senzatela and Randy Vasquez. Eflin, at an uncharacteristic 11.8%, has the sixth-worst strikeout rate in that same set. He’s also on the injured list due to a mild lat strain. Grayson Rodriguez, the team’s best young starter, is currently out with a shoulder injury for which he recently sought a second opinion.
Currently, the O’s are trotting out a quartet of Sugano, Morton, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich. Morton, 41, has struggled more than any pitcher in baseball, yielding a 10.89 ERA with five homers in his 20 2/3 innings. Manager Brandon Hyde was asked about Morton today and wouldn’t commit to the veteran keeping his rotation spot. “I think anything’s on the table at this point, Hyde said, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. “We’re going to get through this series and then kind of see where we are.” Kremer, sitting on a 6.41 ERA, has also served up five homers in just 19 2/3 innings. Povich has been tagged for four homers in 18 1/3 innings and seen more than half of his opponents’ batted balls leave the bat with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph.
The Orioles drew plenty of criticism for their cautious offseason. They reportedly offered Burnes a four-year deal to stay, one that’s said to have come with a $45MM annual value, but a four-year term for a 30-year-old former Cy Young winner in free agency never seemed like it’d get the job done. The team seemed to place a heavy emphasis on sustaining long-term flexibility, which has been a theme under GM Mike Elias as he navigated his club’s lengthy rebuild.
Some of that lack of multi-year spending in past offseasons could be attributable both to the team’s rebuilding status and due to the now-former ownership group helmed by the Angelos family. There was significant in-fighting among the Angelos family over control of the franchise, and in any scenario where a team is up for sale, the current owners are going to be reluctant to commit to pricey, long-term commitments.
There was some hope that’d change under new owner David Rubenstein, who purchased the team last spring. But while the O’s have spent more both at the trade deadline and this past offseason, the commitments remained short term. Tyler O’Neill is the only free agent to sign a multi-year deal under Elias, but his contract lets him opt out after the current season. Eflin was controlled beyond 2024, but only for one additional season. Right or wrong, the perception exists that the Orioles are rather squeamish when it comes to longer-term spending.
Whether it was a deliberate calculation or mere happenstance that the O’s again went short-term in the rotation, the end result is a struggling group that runs the risk of undercutting a lineup full of excellent young hitters. There’s no firm indication as to when Rodriguez will be back. Eflin has been throwing on flat ground but has yet to work off a mound. He’ll presumably need a rehab assignment, too. A mid-May return seems like a best-case scenario. Right-handers Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish had UCL surgery last year and won’t be available until midseason. Albert Suarez was placed on the 15-day injured list after one appearance due to shoulder inflammation and has since been transferred to the 60-day IL.
There are some reinforcements coming for the Orioles, but none of it is likely to pitch at a front-of-the-rotation level. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that Gibson could join the big league club as soon as Friday. (Kubatko’s piece also contains candid, thoughtful and lengthy comments from Morton on his 2025 struggles, which readers are encouraged to check out in full.) Gibson has tossed 12 minor league innings and been effective in building up for the season, but the 37-year-old veteran is at best an innings-eating fourth starter at this point in his career.
Gibson isn’t the only arm on the mend. The Orioles announced this morning that left-hander Trevor Rogers will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A this week. Acquired last July in trade that sent Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins, Rogers is a former top-10 pick, top prospect and Rookie of the Year candidate whose star has dimmed amid a lengthy series of injuries. He was rocked for 15 runs in 19 innings for the Orioles following the trade before being optioned to Triple-A and closing out the year with a 5.65 ERA in his final five minor league starts. He’s a possible fresh arm, which the team needs, but it’s hard to bank on him contributing quality innings. He’ll also probably need a rehab stint of some length, given that he’s been dealing with his current knee issue since January.
For all their pitching struggles, the Orioles sit at 9-12. Their -20 run differential suggests they may be fortunate to be “only” three games under .500, but they’ve kept themselves afloat. If they can stick around in contention while patching together the rotation, then further adding to the rotation will be a primary focus once the trade market opens more fully in the summer. Until then, they’ll likely have to rely on in-house arms and hope the farm yields an unexpectedly productive option. Righty Brandon Young has already made his debut, and it stands to reason that names like Kyle Brnovich, Cameron Weston and perhaps former Nationals Rule 5 pick Thaddeus Ward could get looks if the current struggles continue to mount.
Braves Acquire Scott Blewett
The Braves acquired right-hander Scott Blewett from the Orioles in a trade for cash considerations, as announced by both teams. Blewett was designated for assignment by Baltimore yesterday.
This is the second time in less than a week that Blewett has changed teams after being designated for assignment. Blewett began the season with the Twins and made two appearances before he was DFA’d and then claimed off waivers by the Orioles. Two more appearances followed in an O’s uniform before Blewett was designated again.
The roster shuffling is nothing new for Blewett, who had been DFA’d and outrighted several times in his career even before this month’s transactions. His chances of sticking with the Braves are complicated by the fact that he is out of minor league options, so the Twins and Orioles had no choice but to first designate the right-hander before trying to send him down to the farm.
All these moves belie the fact that Blewett has actually pitched pretty well during his relatively brief time in the big leagues. Over parts of four seasons with the Royals, Twins, and Orioles, Blewett has a 1.93 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate in 37 1/3 career relief innings. His 2.16 SIERA is only a shade higher than his ERA, and an inflated 85.4% strand rate is countered by a .317 BABIP.
While Blewett isn’t a hard thrower and he gives up a lot of solid contact, there’s enough there that multiple teams keep showing interest in the 29-year-old’s services. He’ll become the latest new face in a Braves bullpen that has been a bit of a revolving door, as the club brought several veterans to camp on minor league deals in a search for inexpensive relief depth, and both Rafael Montero and Jose Suarez were acquired in trades (from the Astros and Angels respectively) within the last month.
Orioles Designate Scott Blewett For Assignment
The Orioles announced that right-hander Scott Blewett has been designated for assignment. The move opens up a 26-man roster spot for Brandon Young, whose first promotion to the majors was reported on yesterday.
Blewett was only just claimed off waivers from the Twins earlier this week, and his brief time in the orange-and-black has seen the righty throw 4 1/3 scoreless innings over two relief appearances, striking out six of 19 batters faced. Despite the impressive small sample, Blewett again finds himself in DFA limbo, likely owing to his lack of remaining minor league options.
It is a familiar story for Blewett, who has a 1.53 ERA in 29 1/3 big league innings with the Twins and Orioles over the last two seasons but is still looking to find a steady foothold for himself in the Show. His secondary metrics (such as his hard-contact rates) aren’t particularly impressive, and likely hold a greater sway for front offices than Blewett’s strong bottom-line results. Blewett also hasn’t stood out in the upper minors, posting a 6.93 ERA in 219 1/3 career innings at the Triple-A level.
Should Blewett clear waivers, he has the right to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk and opt into free agency, since he has previously been outrighted in his career. One would imagine another team in need of bullpen help could have interest in claiming Blewett away from Baltimore and giving him a longer look against MLB hitters, just as the O’s plucked him off Minnesota’s roster a few days ago.
Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition
The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.
In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.
At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.
There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.
Onto this year’s group!
Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining
Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.
Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)
Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.
Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)
Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)
Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.
Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)
Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)
Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining
Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.
Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining
Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.
Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining
Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.
A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining
Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.
Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining
Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining
The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.
Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)
Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.
Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)
Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.
Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining
It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.
Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining
Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.
Grayson Rodriguez Getting Second Opinion On Shoulder
April 18: Hyde said today that Rodriguez is getting a second opinion after receiving the results of his MRI, per Weyrich.
April 17: Orioles manager Brandon Hyde provided a troubling update about right-hander Grayson Rodriguez today, with video shared by Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun. Hyde says that Rodriguez recently had a side session canceled due to some shoulder soreness and was sent for an MRI today.
The results of that imaging haven’t come back yet but it’s a less than ideal development regardless. Rodriguez started the season on the 15-day injured list due to some soreness in his elbow/triceps area. He’s been trying to ramp back up lately, throwing bullpen sessions, but that now all seems to be up in the air.
For a pitcher to be dealing with simultaneous elbow and shoulder troubles is a worrisome state of affairs in any context, but it’s also notable given his track record. Rodriguez dealt with shoulder problems at times last year as well. He had a stint of almost three weeks on the IL in May, with right shoulder inflammation listed as his official ailment. He was back on the IL in early August due to right lat/teres discomfort. The injury was initially described as mild and the O’s hoped to have him back late in the year but that ultimately did not come to pass. A notable lat strain also impacted him as a prospect in 2022, shutting him down for about three months and delaying his major league debut until the 2023 campaign.
Needless to say, it’s not what the Orioles want. They came into this season with Rodriguez and Zach Eflin as the top two pitchers in the projected rotation. Rodriguez has been out all season with his elbow inflammation and now has shoulder problems on top of that. Eflin made three starts before himself landing on the IL due to a lat strain. He played catch yesterday for the first time since that IL placement, per Weyrich, and still seems to have some boxes to check.
There are other injuries as well. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June of last year and won’t be available until the second half even in a best-case scenario. Tyler Wells also had UCL surgery in June of last year. Chayce McDermott is on the IL with a lat strain, like Eflin. Trevor Rogers is on the IL with kneecap subluxation. Swingman Albert Suárez is also on the shelf, in his case due to shoulder inflammation.
Going into the offseason, many observers expected the O’s to be aggressive in adding to their rotation. They had lost Bradish to his surgery and Corbin Burnes to free agency. With a new owner in place, it was expected that some new payroll parameters could allow them to play at the top or perhaps the middle of the free agent market.
Instead, the O’s added some veteran back-end guys. They gave a one-year deal to 41-year-old Charlie Morton and another one-year pact to Tomoyuki Sugano. The latter is a bit younger than the former but is 35 and came into this year with no big league experience, looking to make the move from Japan.
With all the injuries, things aren’t going great. Morton has an 8.84 ERA thus far. Sugano’s 3.86 ERA looks better but an 84.2% strand rate is helping him work around an 8.1% strikeout rate. Cade Povich has stepped up and posted a solid 3.60 ERA in three starts but Dean Kremer is at 6.41.
Kyle Gibson will join the group eventually but he is still building up due to a late signing. He got up to 3 2/3 innings in his most recent minor league start. Brandon Young has no major league experience but is on the 40-man and putting up good numbers in Triple-A. Cody Poteet is also on the 40-man but has been working in relief in the minors, with nine earned runs allowed in five innings.
The season is still very young but the O’s are 7-10 and currently in the basement of a very competitive American League East. They entered spring training with a top-heavy rotation featuring two front-end guys in Rodriguez and Eflin and a lot of back-end candidates, though they’ve gotten almost nothing from that Eflin/Rodriguez duo so far. Ideally, both will be getting back to the team in the coming weeks/months, but this update adds an unsettling level of uncertainty.