Red Sox Offer Nathan Eovaldi A Multi-Year Contract
The Red Sox have reportedly offered All-Star starter Nathan Eovaldi a multi-year contract, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. However, Bradford notes that a deal between the two parties is not imminent. News of talks between Boston and Eovaldi comes only a few days after the Red Sox issued the righty a qualifying offer (one-year, $19.65MM) that tied draft compensation to the veteran if he signs with a different team.
After making a career-high 32 starts (182 1/3 innings) in 2021, Eovaldi dealt with lower back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, the latter of which limited him to only seven starts in the second half of the season. When healthy, Eovaldi pitched to a strong 3.87 ERA, striking out 22.4% of batters while limiting walks (4.4%). The 22.4% strikeout rate represented a drop from his 2020 (26.1%) and 2021 (25.5%) rates but was accompanied by an increase in his ground ball rate, 47.3% compared to 42.1% in 2021.
Eovaldi had originally joined the Red Sox in 2018, being flipped in late July by the Rays for Jalen Beeks. He quickly earned his worth, helping the franchise win the 2018 World Series before re-signing with Boston on a four-year, $68MM deal that offseason. Over the course of that contract, Eovaldi made 53 starts, pitching 281 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA baseball with strong strikeout (24.4%) and walk (5.6%) rates.
As seen in our 2022-23 Top 50 Free Agent With Predictions list, MLBTR expected Eovaldi to receive a shorter deal (2-year, $34MM) after missing part of the season with injuries.
Phillies Interested In Xander Bogaerts
According to reports back in September, the Phillies were planning to pursue Xander Bogaerts once the free agent market opened, and that plan apparently remains intact two months later. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Philadelphia is “believed to have real interest in” making Bogaerts the latest big-ticket addition to the roster.
Since Bogaerts received a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject from the Red Sox, the Phillies will have an extra price to pay in compensation for a signing, since Philadelphia exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2022. To sign Bogaerts or any other QO-rejecting free agent, the Phils would have to give up $1MM of their international bonus pool, and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.
Fellow star shortstops Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner are also attached to draft compensation, so theoretically, the Phillies might prefer Carlos Correa if they’re going to shop from the top shelf of the shortstop market. Since Correa rejected a qualifying offer last winter, he is ineligible to receive another QO, and thus could be signed without any compensation. Of course, this also gives Correa extra appeal to other teams, which doesn’t necessarily help the Phillies in a bidding war.
It is expected that the Phils will at least check in on all of these shortstops, but Bogaerts also has a personal connection with Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who was Boston’s PBO from 2015-19. That stint saw the Red Sox win a World Series in 2018, and Bogaerts sign the six-year, $120MM extension that he has now opted out of, in order to test the market this winter.
Since the Phillies declined their $17MM club option Jean Segura for 2023, the Phils suddenly have a hole in their infield that could be pretty cleanly filled by signing Bogaerts. Bryson Stott would move over to second base, and Bogaerts could step right in as Philadelphia’s new everyday shortstop. Edmundo Sosa‘s emergence after joining the Phillies in a midseason trade also puts him into the mix, though Sosa could be moved around the diamond — splitting time with Stott at second base, getting the occasional appearance in left field, or spelling Alec Bohm at third base.
Between Segura’s declined club option and Zach Eflin declining his end of a mutual option, the Phillies have roughly $179.3MM in payroll on the books for 2023, and a luxury tax number of just under $190.8MM. Assuming Bogaerts signed a contract in the range of MLBTR’s projection of a $27MM average annual value, that would still leave Dombrowski with some room under the $233MM tax line to make any further roster adds. Of course, this assumes that the Phillies are overly concerned with resetting their tax bill. After winning the NL pennant in 2022, ownership might not mind a second straight year of overages if it means adding a player like Bogaerts who could put the Phils over the top for a World Series title.
Red Sox Rumors: Reynolds, Senga, Murphy, Diamondbacks
The Red Sox are the latest club to show interest in Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. Reynolds is one of a few names on the trade radar for the Sox early in the offseason, as Speier reports that the Red Sox have looked into the Diamondbacks’ group of left-handed hitting outfielders, and Boston is also expected to again check in with the Athletics about catcher Sean Murphy.
Public defensive metrics were down (-3.2 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average, -14 Defensive Runs Saved) on Reynolds’ work in center field in 2022, yet with Enrique Hernandez perhaps lined up anyway as Boston’s top center field choice, the Sox could have an eye on moving Reynolds into a corner outfield spot at Fenway. His bat should play anywhere, as Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 homers over 614 plate appearances with the Pirates last season. With the exception of the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has been a decidedly above-average bat in his four years in the majors, even if his center field defense has been more of a mixed bag.
Adding Reynolds would be an ideal solution for a Red Sox team looking for more power in general, and with a specific need in the outfield. Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and journeyman Rob Refsnyder line up as the current starting outfield, with unproven prospect Jarren Duran and a few utility options as depth. If Reynolds was obtained for a corner outfield spot, Refsnyder would likely be pushed to a bench spot; if Reynolds still played center field, the versatile Hernandez might be see more work at second base. Since Verdugo has also been floated as a potential trade candidate, however, a bigger outfield shake-up could be a possibility.
Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas, and Jake McCarthy are all left-handed bats primed for regular duty in Arizona, creating a bit of a surplus the D’Backs could use to fill other roster needs. Thomas and McCarthy are seen as the likeliest to be moved, though it isn’t known which names the Sox might have directly asked about. None of the quartet are as established as Reynolds, yet all have shown intriguing potential either as prospects or early in their Major League careers.
D’Backs general manager Mike Hazen has stated that his team would want MLB-ready talent for any of the outfielders, yet the asking price for an Arizona outfielder wouldn’t be as cumbersome as the Pirates’ demands for Reynolds, which are known to be enormous. It would only take one big offer to perhaps change the mind of Pirates GM Ben Cherington (who formerly ran Boston’s front office), and yet roughly half the teams in baseball have been linked to Reynolds over the last year-plus, with no movement on the trade front. By this point, several pundits have opined that Reynolds won’t be dealt, as the Pirates hope to return to contention before Reynolds hits free agency following the 2025 season.
Murphy is in something of a similar situation, as he is also arb-controlled through the 2025 campaign. While the A’s are in an earlier point in their latest rebuild and catching prospect Shea Langeliers is waiting in the wings, Oakland is under no direct pressure to move Murphy for anything less than a major trade package. Speier cites Brayan Bello as the type of top-tier, MLB-ready younger player the Athletics want as the headliner in a Murphy trade, though it isn’t clear if the A’s wanted Bello specifically in any earlier talks between the Red Sox and A’s prior to the trade deadline. If this was the case, that deal might be a no-go, as Speier writes that “Bello borders on untradeable” from Boston’s perspective.
Speaking of untouchable players, the Red Sox also inquired about Zac Gallen, but the Diamondbacks have told clubs that Gallen isn’t available. Pitching is another need on Boston’s winter shopping list, and Speier figures the Sox to be among the many suitors for Kodai Senga since they “were among many teams to scout him heavily” in Japan. The Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, and Angels have already been linked to Senga’s market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeting earlier today about the Angels’ interest. Senga is free of his NPB commitments, so an interested Major League team can negotiate with him like any free agent, without the obstacle of the posting system.
Red Sox Showing Early Interest In Pitchers; Not Close On Devers Extension
As the off-season gets underway, much of attention around the Red Sox has been focused on the free agency Xander Bogaerts and the ongoing contract talks with third baseman Rafael Devers, but it Boston is showing early interest in adding pitching this winter. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox are “digging around the pitching market”, and have been linked to Andrew Heaney and Seth Lugo among others. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has more on their interest in pitching, stating they’ve shown interest – alongside the Angels – in starter Tyler Anderson.
Boston does have a reasonable amount of pitching signed for next season, but a most of it comes with major question marks. Chris Sale is owed $27.5MM but has made just eleven starts in the past three years. James Paxton opted into his $4MM player option for next season, but he didn’t pitch at all in 2022. Brayan Bello showed promise in eleven starts in 2022 and could have a bright future, but those were the first eleven starts of his major league career and he’s still raw. The Red Sox are intending to use Garrett Whitlock as a starter in 2023, but he’s pitched better out of the bullpen and made just nine starts this season. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the only dependable option in Boston’s rotation at this stage, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to add pitching.
Anderson has enjoyed something of a late breakout with the Dodgers this past season. He generally checked in as a solid, back of the rotation starter across his first six seasons in the majors with the Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Mariners. With the Dodgers however, he tossed 178 2/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, easily the best numbers of his career and first since 2016 where his ERA had finished under four. A lot of that was due to restricting the long ball, as Anderson’s HR/9 more than halved from 2021 (1.46 down to 0.71). Anderson did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, so there’s every chance he accepts that one-year, $19.65MM deal and returns to LA.
Heaney, on the other hand, was not tendered a qualifying offer but also enjoyed his own breakout campaign. He pitched to a 3.10 ERA through 72 2/3 innings as a result of leaning more on his slider and less on his changeup. Those numbers came with a significant increase in strikeout rate, as he posted a 35.5% rate, well above his previous high of 28.9% in 2019. He did miss around three months across two separate IL stints with left shoulder problems, so there are some durability concerns.
Lugo has enjoyed six solid seasons pitching out of the Mets bullpen. He threw 65 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, maintaining a strong walk rate of 6.6% and a solid strikeout rate of 25.4%. While it’s not lights out stuff for a reliever, Lugo does have plenty of value as a durable middle reliever. While there’s a case to be made for any or all of these three pitchers finding their way to Boston this winter, it’s still early and the Red Sox will be casting a wide net in their pursuit of pitching.
On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox appear to be some way off agreeing to a contract extension with Devers. The star third baseman will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that while there is some optimism towards a deal, the two sides remain far apart. Heyman reports that the Red Sox offered Devers a contract slightly above the ten-year, $212MM deal that Austin Riley received from the Braves, but Devers is seeking more than $300MM in an extension.
Devers had another brilliant season in 2022, mashing 27 home runs and compiling a .295/.358/.521 line in 141 games. His wRC+ mark of 140 was the best of his career, but his previous marks of 133, 108 and 132 show he’s regularly been a superb hitter. Defensively, he improved on 2021 but still graded out with negative numbers per Outs Above Average (-2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6). Given he’s already amassed 18.1 fWAR and will be hitting free agency entering his age-27 season, it’s no surprise Devers is seeking big money. The left-hander would be one of the top free agents available on the open market should the Red Sox fail to lock him in before then.
14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
- Joc Pederson (Giants)
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.
If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.
Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.
[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]
The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.
Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.
The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.
The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.
That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.
Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.
Red Sox To Select Enmanuel Valdez
The Red Sox are going to select the contract of infielder Enmanuel Valdez today, according to Christopher Smith of MassLive. Acquired in the Christian Vázquez trade, Valdez was set to reach minor league free agency but will instead get a spot on Boston’s 40-man roster.
Valdez, who turns 24 next month, spent six and a half seasons in the minors of the Astros’ system. For the purposes of seven-year minor league free agency, 2020 counts as a year even though no official games were played due to the pandemic. In that time, he never got a huge amount of attention from prospect evaluators, having never appeared on a Baseball America list of top Houston farmhands coming into this year. FanGraphs gave him an honorable mention on their lists going into 2019, 2020 and 2021.
2022 was a big breakout for Valdez, however, with his bat taking a big step forward. Prior to the trade, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A and produced a combined batting line of .327/.410/.606 for a wRC+ of 151. He slumped a bit after the deal, hitting .237/.309/.422 for a wRC+ of 92. But nonetheless, the Boston brass are intrigued enough that they have given Valdez a roster spot.
He doesn’t appear to have a set position at the moment, having spent time at first, second and third base in 2022, as well as the outfield corners. The Sox have an uncertain position player mix at the moment, with Xander Bogaerts now a free agent. They could look to have Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández cover short, but that would then create a vacancy at second base or center field. Of course, there’s also the possibility of the club re-signing Bogaerts, though it remains to be seen if that’s in the cards. Regardless, Valdez will join Christian Arroyo, Yu Chang and Jeter Downs as depth/utility types battling for playing time next season.
Red Sox Planning To Use Garrett Whitlock As Starter In 2023
The Red Sox are planning to deploy right-hander Garrett Whitlock out of the rotation in 2023, general manager Brian O’Halloran told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). O’Halloran added that Tanner Houck could get a look as a starter as well, although that decision hasn’t yet been made.
“With Whit, we told him to plan to be a starter and we expect him to be a starter,” the GM told reporters. “With Tanner, we said something similar. We talked through that he will go through the offseason planning to be a starter and we’ll build him up as such. But there’s a little bit (less) definition around his role and he knows it could go in either direction.” O’Halloran added the decision to move Whitlock to the rotation “was a little bit more clear and definitive” than the situation with Houck, whose role figures to be determined in part by the course of the Boston offseason.
Whitlock has worked almost exclusively as a reliever in his MLB career. Since being selected from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft, the UAB product has made 68 relief appearances and nine starts. Whitlock has frequently worked multiple innings out of the bullpen, however, emerging as one of the league’s most valuable relievers. He’s tallied 112 2/3 innings of 2.24 ERA ball as a reliever, striking out a well above-average 28.1% of opponents. Whitlock predictably hasn’t been quite so dominant as a starter, but he owns a 4.15 ERA with a decent 23.5% strikeout rate and a stellar 5.5% walk percentage in that time.
The 26-year-old doesn’t have much experience turning a big league lineup over three times, but he mixes three pitches and has handled hitters from both sides of the plate. That gives Whitlock a chance to be a quality starting pitcher, the role he filled throughout his time in the minors.
Boston signed Whitlock to an $18.75MM guarantee during Spring Training. He’s controllable via a pair of club options through 2028, and Cotillo notes that deal contains some innings-based incentives — ones which Whitlock cementing himself in the rotation would help him unlock.
As for Houck, he started 13 of 18 appearances in 2021 but came out of the bullpen 28 of 32 times this year. Houck also worked multiple innings frequently, but he’s had more marked platoon splits than Whitlock has. Left-handers this year had a .259/.376/.400 line against the 26-year-old hurler, who stifled righties to a .205/.269/.227 line. Houck’s heavy reliance on his fastball and slider at the expense of a changeup or splitter have led to some concern among evaluators about his ability to turn lineups over three times as a starter.
Boston will unquestionably add to their rotation over the coming months. At present, the Sox have just Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, James Paxton and now Whitlock as rotation pieces for 2023. Former top prospect Brayan Bello could get into that mix, as could Houck, but only Pivetta looks like a safe bet for innings. Sale and Paxton have barely pitched the past couple years because of injury, while Bello’s rookie season was up-and-down. The Sox are seeing Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency.
Mariners Acquire Easton McGee From Red Sox
The Mariners have acquired right-hander Easton McGee from the Red Sox for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams.
McGee, who turns 25 next month, was originally selected to a big league roster for the first time about six weeks ago, yet is now in his third organization already. A 2016 draft pick of the Rays, he was added to Tampa’s roster at the end of September but quickly designated for assignment after a single appearance. He was claimed by the Red Sox on the final day of the regular season and didn’t get a chance to pitch for them. Though Boston won’t get any contributions from McGee on the field, they will at least get some Seattle cash out of the deal.
McGee has never been a huge strikeout artist but has often succeeded in the minors by inducing a lot of ground balls. His grounder rate has been around 45-50% in most of his minor league seasons, though it dropped to 39.6% over 107 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2022. That led to McGee posting an ERA of 5.43 on the year, though he’d been better than that in previous campaigns. Another thing he has going for him is control, as he’s never posted a walk rate above 4.8%, apart from his rookie ball debut. For reference, the MLB average in 2022 was 8.2%. McGee still has a full slate of options, meaning the Mariners can keep him stashed in the minors as a depth option for the foreseeable future.
Red Sox, Rob Refsnyder Avoid Arbitration
The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with outfielder Rob Refsnyder by agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Chad Jennings of The Athletic. Refsnyder will earn a salary of $1.2MM in 2023, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and will be able to earn an extra $100K in performance bonuses, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a slightly higher salary of $1.6MM.
Refsnyder, who turns 32 in March, has bounced around the league for much of his career, spending time with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Rangers and Twins. Minnesota non-tendered him after a 2021 season where he hit .245/.325/.338 for a wRC+ of 88.
The Red Sox signed him to a minor league deal and sent him to Triple-A Worcester to start the year. He got a brief bump to the big leagues in April as a COVID “substitute” but didn’t properly get his contract selected until June. With Worcester, he was hitting an incredible .306/.429/.524 for a wRC+ of 155. After his promotion, he was largely able to duplicate those results at the big league level, finishing the year with a batting line of .307/.384/.497 for a wRC+ of 146. He had only six career home runs in over 600 plate appearances coming into the year and doubled that total by adding six more in just 177 trips to the plate.
That’s still a fairly small sample size but it was enough for the Sox to see if he can carry that over into 2023 with a slight bump in pay. Though Refsnyder has played a lot of infield in his career, Boston kept him in the outfield in 2022 and seems likely to keep him there again next year. Enrique Hernandez could play some infield but is also the best in-house option for the regular center field job at the moment. Alex Verdugo should be pencilled into one of the corners, though the club recently declined their mutual option on Tommy Pham.
Refsnyder has never been much more than a part-time player, with his 177 plate appearances in 2022 actually his career high. Perhaps he’ll have a chance to carve out an everyday role next year if the Red Sox think his results are sustainable, but it’s also possible they acquire another option at some point this offseason and push Refsnyder into the fourth outfielder. But for now, they’ve got a deal at a modest price point on a guy who showed breakout potential and could be sneaky value.
James Paxton Exercises Player Option
The Red Sox announced that lefty James Paxton has triggered his $4MM player option, sticking with the club for 2023.
Paxton, 34, has oscillated back and forth in his career between excellent results and injury setbacks. He was drafted by the Mariners and pitched for them from 2013 to 2018. In those six seasons, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.90 but also never stayed healthy for a full season, topping out at 28 starts and 160 1/3 innings in his last year in Seattle. After being traded to the Yankees prior to 2019, he had another solid season, though again limited by injuries. He made 29 starts for the Yanks and tossed 150 2/3 innings, posting an ERA of 3.82.
The injury issues have only gotten worse since then, as the lefty was limited to just five starts and 20 1/3 innings in 2020 due to a left flexor strain. He reached free agency after that campaign and signed a deal to return to Seattle for 2021. He made only one appearance, throwing just 1 1/3 innings, before being shut down and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.
Going into 2022, his status was uncertain. He was definitely going to miss some time, but it was possible he could be recovered from the TJS in time to contribute to a team down the stretch. He and the Sox agreed to a convoluted deal that reflected that uncertainty. Paxton earned a $6MM salary in 2022, with the convoluted part coming after that. First, the Red Sox would have to decide whether or not to trigger a two-year club option that would pay Paxton $26MM, with a $13MM salary in both 2023 and 2024. If they declined, Paxton would have the ability to trigger a one-year, $4MM option for 2023.
That structure seemed to take into account the wide variance of potential outcomes. If Paxton were able to return and show some of his previous excellent results, the Sox would be rewarded for taking the gamble by getting to lock him down for another two years. If things went the other way, their obligations would be significantly less but Paxton had a safety net in there for himself.
The latter scenario was what ended up happening in 2022, as Paxton suffered a lat strain during his rehab and never made it back to the active roster. Now the southpaw is in the position of having missed an entire season as well as only logging 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons combined. That made it a fairly easy call for Boston to turn down their option as opposed to committing to Paxton for another two years. That decision was indeed confirmed on Monday.
That put the onus on Paxton to decide whether or not to lock in a $4MM guarantee for 2023. On the one hand, after three straight effectively lost seasons, it’s probably difficult to turn down cash on the barrel like that. On the other hand, Paxton got himself a $10MM guarantee last offseason when it was known that he was going to miss at least part of the year. In the end, he decided to opt for the proverbial bird in the hand as opposed to seeing what other creative deals he could find on the open market.
This decision could potentially work out for both parties in 2023, given the uncertainty in the Boston rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill have just become free agents, leaving some big holes in the rotation. Chris Sale declined his opt-out and will remain with the club next year, though he’s tough to rely on right now. Similar to Paxton, various injuries have limited him to 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons. He will surely have a role but might not be able to log over 200 frames like he has done in the past. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the most reliable member for next year, with some wild card options like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello in the mix.
With all of that uncertainty, it’s likely that Paxton will be given a chance to make some starts and re-establish his health before returning to the open market a year from now. For the Sox, they will get a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice that would certainly be worth the modest $4MM figure if Paxton’s health can cooperate.