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NL Notes: Syndergaard, Pollock, Cards, Brewers

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Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard will begin an injury rehab assignment Tuesday at the Single A-level, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Syndergaard could return to the majors within five days of that outing, DiComo reports. The Mets placed Syndergaard on the injured list June 16 with a hamstring strain, adding to what has been a surprisingly pedestrian season for the 26-year-old. A front-line starter when he was healthy enough to take the mound from 2015-18, Syndergaard has managed a mediocre-at-best 4.55 ERA in 95 innings this season. However, the flamethrowing Syndergaard’s 2019 peripherals have been more encouraging – albeit not as dominant as they had been in prior years – as he has logged a 3.61 FIP with 8.81 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent groundball rate.

More from the National League…

  • Dodgers center fielder A.J. Pollock is hoping to return when the second half of the season kicks off July 12, Pedro Moura of The Athletic tweets. Pollock’s continuing to work back from the right elbow surgery he underwent at the start of May. Before going under the knife, Pollock got off a tough start in 2019 after emigrating from the Diamondbacks to the rival Dodgers over the winter on a four-year, $60MM contract. The 31-year-old has hit just .233/.287/.330 (64 wRC+) in 115 plate appearances this season, but considering his productive track record and the Dodgers’ goal of having capable depth everywhere, they’ll be glad to get Pollock back.
  • With Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks in danger of missing the rest of the season because of a torn ulnar collateral ligament, it’s “expected” they’ll use Carlos Martinez as their main game-ending option, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. That would be a new role for the 27-year-old Martinez, who’s working out of the Cardinals’ bullpen this season largely because spring shoulder issues prevented him from ramping up as a starter entering the campaign. Martinez has totaled nine saves during his career, which began in 2013, and has been one of the Cardinals’ most effective relievers this year. He owns a 3.00 ERA/3.38 FIP with 8.4 K/9, 3.00 BB/9 and a Hicks-like 61.5 percent groundball rate in 15 innings.
  • Righty Jimmy Nelson, now out of the Brewers’ starting rotation, will “likely” function as a long reliever, Robert Murray of The Athletic writes (subscription link). For now, Nelson’s rotation spot will go to righty reliever Adrian Houser.  Nelson’s hopeful he’ll eventually return to Milwaukee’s starting staff, per Murray, who delves into the 30-year-old’s 2019 struggles in his piece. While Nelson was the Brewers’ best starter in 2017, late-season shoulder surgery that year kept him out of major league action until three weeks ago. Nelson then made three subpar starts before the Brewers moved him into a lesser role. Houser, 26, has logged an impressive 2.27 ERA/3.37 FIP with 10.23 K/9 and 3.41 BB/9 this season, but as Murray notes, he won’t work deep into games as a starter. He has averaged just under two innings per appearance across 16 tries this season, having totaled 31 2/3 frames.

Jordan Hicks, Alex Reyes Undergoing Medical Evaluations

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Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks and oft-injured prospect Alex Reyes are both undergoing tests today to determine the severity of a pair of potential injuries, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Hicks is having an MRI after being slowed by triceps tightness in recent days and could potentially land on the injured list. Reyes, meanwhile, exited yesterday’s Triple-A outing due to right pectoral discomfort and is being reevaluated today.

Were Hicks to require a stint on the injured list, the Cardinals could turn to either Andrew Miller or John Gant for ninth-inning work in his absence. Miller struggled terribly through his first 13 games this year but has rebounded with a 2.70 ERA and, more importantly, a 25-to-4 K/BB ratio over his past 16 2/3 innings. That sterling ratio comes after the lefty issued eight walks and hit three batters in his first 9 1/3 innings of action as a Cardinal. Gant, meanwhile, boasts a 2.40 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 47.1 percent grounder rate in 41 1/3 innings of relief.

That’s not to say that the loss of Hicks wouldn’t sting, of course. The 22-year-old has improved in every meaningful category in 2019. At present, he has a 3.14 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a superlative 67.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s upped his swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rates from 9.4 percent and 26.1 percent to 11.9 percent and 29.5 percent, respectively. Even Hicks’ otherworldly heater has taken a step forward in 2019; after averaging a blazing 100.5 mph on the pitch in 2018, he’s upped his average fastball velocity to 101.2 mph this year.

The news on Reyes, 24, is more concerning not necessarily because of the specific nature of his injury but because the vaunted right-hander has an already lengthy injury history that has led to concerns about his ability to remain on the field. Reyes has thrown  just 64 1/3 innings from 2017-19 combined and has never reached 120 innings in a single season. He’s previously undergone Tommy John surgery as well as surgery to repair a tendon in his lat muscle last season.

The Cardinals’ pitching staff has received a boost in recent weeks. Carlos Martinez returned to bolster the bullpen and has turned in 15 innings of 3.00 ERA ball. Michael Wacha tossed two quality starts (albeit against one clunker) upon rejoining the rotation following a bullpen sojourn. Miller’s resurgence, too, has been a vital development. The club looks better equipped to handle absences for Hicks and/or Reyes with that trio looking mostly sharp, but a significant absence for either pitcher could of course impact the manner in which the Cards operate in the weeks leading up to next month’s trade deadline.

St. Louis currently looks like a buyer, as the Cards are in a tie for an NL Wild Card spot and just two games behind the division-leading Cubs. That stance isn’t likely to change, but their area of focus and level of urgency to make a deal will undoubtedly be impacted by health throughout the roster.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Dodgers, Haniger, Dipoto, Bichette

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On July 31, 2000, the Padres and Cardinals swung a trade deadline deal that sent Heathcliff Slocumb and prospect Ben Johnson to San Diego in exchange for catcher Carlos Hernandez and minor league utilityman Nate Tebbs.  The swap is little more than a footnote in team history, though it could’ve been a far more legendary trade had Johnson been replaced with another prospect who was on the Padres’ radar — Albert Pujols.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details the intriguing history of that would-be deal, and how the Cardinals front office had to make a decision between including Pujols (a famously unheralded 13th-round pick in the 1999 draft) or Johnson, a much more highly-touted fourth-rounder from that same draft.  Pujols showed so much promise in his early pro career, however, that the team ultimately decided to move Johnson and spend more time evaluating a potential hidden gem.  “I really didn’t want to give up Ben, either, but that’s why you always have your top guys scout your own system,” said Walt Jocketty, then the Cardinals’ general manager.  “You have to know your own, like Pujols. There was no way we could trade him. No way, just based on what our guys had seen in a short period of time. They said, ‘I think he’s going to be something special – or has a chance to be.’ When I saw it myself, it was obvious.”

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Even with Rich Hill on the IL for an undetermined period of time, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman isn’t planning to make starting pitching a particular focus at the trade deadline.  “I don’t see it being an area where we spend a lot of energy,” Friedman told reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “Could that change? Of course. But I don’t expect it right now. We don’t expect it to be an area of need.”  In fact, Friedman didn’t think his team had any obvious weak spots, which perhaps isn’t a surprise given the Dodgers’ league-best 54-25 record.  Instead, the front office will look out for “impact players,” since such additions are “what moves the needle in October.”
  • In an interview on “The Front Office” on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto reiterated that his trade deadline efforts will be directed towards moving veteran players.  Younger and more controllable members of the Seattle roster are less likely to be moved, since they are part of what Dipoto hopes “is a very quick turnaround” within 12-18 months.  “Some of the guys that we do have here that attract the most trade attention, particularly guys like Mitch Haniger, they’re critical to our growth.  So at some point, you do have to build around something,” Dipoto said.
  • With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio now in the majors, speculation is swirling in Toronto about when Bo Bichette could make his Blue Jays debut.  A consensus top-12 prospect in the sport prior to the season, Bichette has a .256/.316/.453 slash line and three homers over 96 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019, while missing over six weeks due to a fractured hand.  As a result, Jays GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that Bichette still needs a bit more seasoning in his first stint at the Triple-A level.  “We’d really like to see some time in triple-A and have him get his legs under him and have a good strong foundation before we have that discussion [about a promotion],” Atkins said.  For comparison’s sake, Nicholson-Smith notes that Biggio had 174 PA and Guerrero 162 PA for Triple-A Buffalo before getting the call to the Show.

Pitcher Notes: J. Hicks, Phillies, Astros, Padres, A’s

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The latest on a slew of major league hurlers…

  • Cardinals closer Jordan Hicks is dealing with right triceps tendinitis, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Hicks will undergo additional tests Sunday. One of the last things the Cardinals need is a long absence for the 22-year-old Hicks, who has put up a 3.14 ERA/3.17 FIP with 9.73 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, a whopping 67.2 percent groundball rate and 14 saves on 15 chances in 28 2/3 innings this season. Hicks is the hardest thrower in baseball, which has certainly aided in his success.
  • Phillies relievers David Robertson and Tommy Hunter are progressing toward returns, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. While Robertson hasn’t yet embarked on a rehab assignment, the hope is that he’ll rejoin the Phillies’ bullpen before the All-Star break. Robertson has been out since mid-April with a flexor strain in his right elbow. Meanwhile, Hunter’s in the early stages of a rehab stint. Hunter’s also working back from a right flexor strain, which has kept him out all season. The Phillies have guaranteed $41MM to Robertson and Hunter over the past two offseasons, but they’ve gotten just 6/2 3 innings from them this year (all from the former).
  • The Astros could activate righty Collin McHugh from the injured list Tuesday, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. McHugh has been out since May 21 with right elbow discomfort. On the other hand, rehabbing reliever Joe Smith won’t return until after the All-Star break, manager A.J. Hinch said. Smith’s still on the mend from the left Achilles surgery he underwent last December.
  • Padres righty Dinelson Lamet could return next week, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. The 26-year-old Lamet hasn’t pitched in the majors since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2018. Lamet was then coming off his own lone season in the majors, in which he registered a 4.57 ERA/4.35 FIP with 10.94 K/9 against 4.25 BB/9 across 114 1/3 innings and 21 starts.
  • The Athletics’ pitching staff, reeling from ace Frankie Montas’ suspension, may get righties Marco Estrada and Jharel Cotton back soon. Estrada, on the injured list since April 17 because of a lumbar strain in his back, threw his first bullpen Saturday since going on the IL, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. He could be a second-half option for the Athletics, according to Slusser. Cotton’s on track to begin a rehab assignment after the All-Star break, Slusser tweets. Cotton had been making encouraging progress in his recovery from March 2018 Tommy John surgery before he had to undergo a hamstring procedure earlier this month.

Jedd Gyorko Suffers Setback

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JUNE 22: Gyorko’s now dealing with a right wrist issue that will require minor arthroscopic surgery, Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets. He won’t restart baseball activities for approximately three weeks.

JUNE 19: Injured Cardinals infielder Jedd Gyorko suffered a setback this week and won’t return “for a while,” Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

Gyorko went to the injured list June 8 with a lower back strain, but he may now be dealing with a left calf strain. It’s the latest significant lower body issue for Gyorko, who thrice went on the IL with hamstring and groin strains from 2017-18.

Gyorko’s injury woes add to what has been a contract season to forget for the 30-year-old. Although the former Padre combined to hit .259/.331/.463 (111 wRC+) with 61 home runs and 6.1 fWAR in 1,321 plate appearances from 2016-18, his first three seasons as a Cardinal, playing time has been scarce for Gyorko this year. Stuck behind third baseman Matt Carpenter, second baseman Kolten Wong and shortstop Paul DeJong on the Cardinals’ depth chart, Gyorko has totaled just 62 PA in 2019 and batted a poor .196/.274/.304 (57 wRC+) with a pair of HRs.

Between his injuries and weak production, Gyorko looks as if he’s on track to settle for a much lower salary than his current $13MM when he reaches free agency in the offseason.  The Cardinals will have a chance to keep Gyorko for another $13MM then, but they’re sure to decline his option in favor of a $1MM buyout.

Quick Hits: C. Martinez, Rangers, Straily, Mercer

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Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez has been a highly capable starter for most of tenure with the club, which dates back to 2013. But the Cardinals moved the then-injured Martinez to their bullpen in late April, and that’s where he’s going to stay for the time being, per manager Mike Shildt (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Shildt suggested the Cardinals don’t have time to build up Martinez, who opened the season on the injured list with shoulder problems. “To put him back in that cycle again doesn’t make a lot of sense when he’s in a spot where he’s had success and he’s recovering,” Shildt said of Martinez, who has totaled 12 appearances and 13 1/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA/3.47 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 58.3 percent groundball rate since he made his season debut May 18. Even though Martinez has posted good numbers as a reliever, the Cardinals’ rotation has missed the 27-year-old. Their starting staff has been mediocre or worse this season.

Here’s more from around the majors…

  • The Rangers were planning on giving left-hander Joe Palumbo a chance to audition for a role in their thin rotation, but that may not be the case anymore, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. The 22-year-old Palumbo has started twice, including in Wednesday’s 10-4 drubbing at the hands of the Indians. The Tribe lit up Palumbo for seven earned runs on six hits (two home runs) in two innings. Reliever Jesse Chavez came in after Palumbo and tossed five innings of one-run ball. Although Chavez, 35, hasn’t started extensively since 2017, the Rangers are so hard up for stability in the back of their rotation that they’ll “consider” shifting him there, manager Chris Woodward said.
  • Orioles righty Dan Straily’s place on the team’s roster may be in jeopardy, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com suggests. The low-risk flier the club took on Straily on April 5, a little over a week after the Marlins released him, hasn’t worked out to this point. Straily, 30, was coming off a multiyear run as a useful starter when he joined Baltimore, yet he has worked to a hideous 9.82 ERA/9.30 FIP in 47 2/3 innings since then. While Straily began 2019 as a starter, his struggles convinced the O’s to demote him to their bullpen nearly a month ago. Straily has fared even worse in that role.
  • Injured Tigers shortstop Jordy Mercer is nearing a rehab assignment and could return to the majors by the first week of July, according to manager Ron Gardenhire (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). Mercer, out since April 14 with a right quad strain, already began a rehab stint once. However, he suffered a setback three weeks ago and hasn’t returned to game action yet. When the rebuilding Tigers signed the soon-to-be 33-year-old Mercer to a $5.25MM guarantee in the offseason, they were likely hoping he’d perform well enough to emerge as a summer trade chip. Instead, the former Pirate got off to a brutal start – .206/.275/.317 (55 wRC+) in 69 plate appearances – and hasn’t played since.

Pitcher Notes: EJax, J. Wilson, King Felix, Wainwright

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The latest on a few injured hurlers…

  • The Blue Jays placed right-hander Edwin Jackson on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a lower back issue, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. Jackson has endured a nightmarish season with Toronto, the record 14th major league team for which he has pitched, having notched a 12.43 ERA/9.65 FIP with 6.04 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9 in 25 1/3 innings. The 35-year-old allowed seven earned runs on six hits (three homers) and two walks during a 2/3-inning shellacking at the hands of the Angels on Monday. For now, Jackson’s IL placement will stave off a potential designation for assignment.
  • Mets left-handed reliever Justin Wilson had been nearing activation, but he has suffered a setback in his injured elbow, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. That’s yet another negative development for the woebegone Mets, who also received bad injury news on outfielder Brandon Nimmo and reliever Jeurys Familia on Wednesday. Like Familia, another of the Mets’ big-ticket offseason pickups, Wilson has trudged through a season to forget thus far. The 31-year-old Wilson has been on the IL twice – including since May 11 – with elbow troubles, and he has only logged a 4.82 ERA/5.96 FIP in 9 1/3 innings since the Mets signed him to a two-year, $10MM contract.
  • Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez underwent an MRI on his sore lat muscle on Tuesday, according to Greg Johns of MLB.com. Hernandez – who hasn’t pitched in the bigs since May 11 – had been on a rehab assignment, but concern arose when he exited a minor league start last Friday with shoulder fatigue. “Felix had some discomfort in the back of his shoulder,” manager Scott Servais said. “It’s concerning enough to get new images of that. Let’s find out exactly what is going on in there.” Thanks in part to Hernandez’s injuries, it appears the Mariners legend’s tenure in Seattle will go out with a whimper. The impending free agent, 33, has followed up his woeful 2018 production with an even worse 6.52 ERA/5.37 FIP in 38 2/3 innings and eight starts this season.
  • Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright will come off the IL to start Thursday, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com relays. Wainwright has been on the shelf since he departed a June 9 start with left hamstring tightness. Like most of St. Louis’ other starters, the 37-year-old Cardinals icon has registered unspectacular numbers this season. Wainwright owns a 4.46 ERA/4.59 FIP with 7.77 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9 in 70 2/3 innings.

Cardinals Select Rangel Ravelo’s Contract

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12:05pm: The move is now official. Righty Mike Mayers was moved to the 60-day IL to create 40-man space.

1:06am: The Cardinals are set to add minor league infielder Rangel Ravelo to their big league roster, The Athletic’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Ravelo’s contract should be selected prior to the Cards’ game with the Marlins on Monday night.  Yairo Munoz is headed to the paternity list, which will create a spot for Ravelo on the Cards’ 25-man roster, though a 40-man spot will still need to be created.

MLB.com doesn’t rank Ravelo as one of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects, though the 27-year-old put up strong numbers during Spring Training this year, and then rebounded from an oblique injury to hit .333/.414/.543 with nine home runs over 249 PA for Triple-A Memphis.  Speaking to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited Ravelo as “not a name I’d rule out” in regards to a promotion.

Ravelo has played mostly first base and left field in recent years, with some work as as right fielder as well.  Since Paul Goldschmidt has first base spoken for in St. Louis, Ravelo seems likely to step into the corner outfield mix, though he is something of an imperfect fit on a roster already overloaded with right-handed bats.  Of course, this assumes that Ravelo will be up in the majors for anything beyond a cup of coffee, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that Jedd Gyorko is expected back from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday.  Ravelo could very well find himself back in Memphis in 24 hours’ time, without having officially made his Major League debut.

A sixth-round pick for the White Sox in the 2010 draft, Ravelo has consistently hit for high averages and shown a lot of on-base skills in amassing a .301/.372/.444 slash line over 3383 career plate appearances in the minors.  After spending his first five pro seasons in Chicago’s farm system, he was part of a notable trade in December 2014, going along with Marcus Semien, Josh Phegley and Chris Bassitt to the Athletics in exchange for Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa.  Ravelo originally came to the Cards on a minors contract in April 2017.

MLB Draft Signings: 6/15/19

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Here’s a look at the game’s latest noteworthy draft signings, with the newest moves at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500, Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law….

Latest Signings

  • The Red Sox inked second-rounder Cameron Cannon, as per a team press release.  MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo first reported the Cannon signing earlier this week, and MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Cannon will receive a $1.3MM bonus, which is lower than the $1,729,800 slot price attached to the 43rd overall pick.  It should be noted that Cannon was Boston’s first pick of the 2019 draft, as their initial draft spot was dropped ten places as punishment for exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM.  Fangraphs had the highest projection on Cannon, ranking him 48th on their list of draft’s top prospects and describing the high schooler as an “infielder with approach and strong bat-to-ball skills,” with a potential for more power if he changes his swing.
  • The Royals have a deal with second-round pick Brady McConnell, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (Twitter link).  The 44th overall pick has a slot price of $1,689,500, though Kansas City went well over that figure in signing McConnell to a $2,222,450 bonus.  Ranked as the 39th-best prospect in the draft by MLB.com, their scouting report on McConnell citing his speed, contact ability, and “the chance for future average power.”  While McConnell was drafted as a shortstop, his future could be at second base or potentially even in center field.
  • Two teams made significant signings beyond the 10th round that will have hefty impacts on their draft bonus pools, as every post-10th round draft pick who signs for more than $125K will have the extra money counted against the pool.  The Braves signed 13th-round pick Tyler Owens to a $547.5K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports that the Cardinals have signed 14th-rounder Tyler Statler to a $300K bonus.  Both Owens and Statler are right-handed pitchers out of high school, who had respectively committed to attend Florida and Southeast Missouri State.

Earlier Today

  • Pirates supplemental first-round pick Sammy Siani has signed an above-slot deal worth $2.15MM, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. The recommended slot value for Siani’s pick (No. 37) was $1.99MM. Siani’s a Pennsylvania-based high school outfielder who may have “a little Andrew Benintendi in him,” per Callis and MLB.com colleague Jonathan Mayo, who give rave reviews to his left-handed swing.
  • Braves second-rounder Beau Philip (No. 60) has signed a below-slot deal for $700K, Mayo tweets. He’d have earned $1,157,400 at full value. Philip barely cracked MLB.com’s Top 200 entering the draft, coming in at No. 195. The Oregon State shortstop should be able to stay at the position, write Callis and Mayo, who laud his athleticism and bat speed.
  • The Indians have signed second-round choice Yordys Valdes for $1MM, according to Callis. The slot value for his pick, No. 63, was $1,076,300. Valdes is a switch-hitting, contact-making high school shortstop from Florida. Third-rounder Joe Naranjo – the 101st pick – also signed, but he landed an above-slot deal worth $770K ($577K slot). The California-based high school first baseman boasts “one of the best prep bats” in his draft class, Callis relays.
  • The Astros announced the signing of second-rounder Grae Kessinger, a shortstop from Ole Miss. The 68th overall pick, Kessinger received $750K – down from a $953K slot value. Kessinger may move into a second base/utility role in the pros, Callis and Mayo write. Houston also signed fourth-rounder Colin Barber to a deal worth well above slot, Callis relays. Barber, the 136th pick ($410K slot value), received $1MM. The California high schooler and former Oregon commit profiles as a hard-hitting right fielder, Callis writes.
  • Rangers fourth-rounder Cody Freeman (No. 115) has signed for $900K – significantly more than his $502K slot value – Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Freeman, yet another California high schooler, had committed to Baylor. Baseball America notes Freeman has “premium instincts” and offers a “well-rounded” package.

Miles Mikolas Has Fallen Off

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The Cardinals signed free-agent right-hander Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee in what became one of the wisest moves of the 2017-18 offseason. Although hardly a bank-breaking commitment, it was somewhat of a gamble for St. Louis. After all, Mikolas was an unspectacular major leaguer with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 who then spent three years pitching in Japan. Mikolas was dominant overseas, though, and he carried that excellence into 2018 in St. Louis.

During his first year with the Cardinals, Mikolas pitched to an outstanding 2.83 ERA/3.28 FIP in 200 2/3 innings. While Mikolas only struck out 6.55 batters per nine, he walked a mere 1.3 and induced ground balls at a 49.3 percent clip. Mikolas’ stinginess in the walk and fly ball departments helped lead to a 4.3 fWAR, which ranked 12th among major league starters.

Sold on Mikolas’ output last season, the Cardinals signed him to an extension worth a guaranteed $68MM for four years back in February. That deal will keep Mikolas under wraps through 2023, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, it’s not looking like a great move so far. Facing the lowly Marlins on Wednesday, Mikolas allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings, thereby raising his ERA to 4.83 in 78 1/3 frames this season. His 4.74 FIP isn’t much better.

Mikolas’ 2019 woes haven’t come because of significant declines in the strikeout, walk, groundball or BABIP categories. Those numbers look almost the same compared to last season, though there has been a noticeable drop in his strike rate. Nobody posted a higher strike percentage than Mikolas’ 69.3 a year ago, but the figure has fallen to 65.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, Mikolas’ strand rate has decreased by a large margin (from 76.2 percent to 70.9), and he has been far more prone to surrendering long balls.

After yielding home runs on a meager 9.2 percent of fly balls in 2018, Mikolas is all the way up to 19.7 this season. It hasn’t helped that Mikolas’ infield fly rate has plummeted from 9.8 percent to 4.2. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed by greater than 5 percent, according to FanGraphs, while Statcast indicates his average exit velocity against has hopped from 85.4 mph to 88.2. Consequently, Mikolas’ weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has shot from .271/.286 to .339/.347.

So why the newfound contact management issues? For one, Mikolas isn’t fooling as many hitters this year, as they’ve chased 5 percent fewer pitches than they did last season. And left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Mikolas, who held them to a .309 wOBA last season but has seen the number jump to .396 this year. As seen in these FanGraphs heatmaps (2018, ’19), he’s not staying away against lefties as well he did last season.

Worsening matters, Mikolas’ once-elite slider has been ineffective, and he has leaned on it less as a result. While Mikolas’ slider was one of the most valuable pitches of its kind a year ago, per FanGraphs, it has taken colossal steps backward this season. Batters posted a measly .201/.231 wOBA/xwOBA versus the offering in his first year in St. Louis, but they’re up to .395/.329 in the current campaign. If we’re to take that 66-point gap in face value, there has been some poor fortune involved. However, it simply hasn’t been close to as lethal as it was in 2018, perhaps owing to a 1 mph drop in velocity and somewhat of a change in typical location (heatmaps via FanGraphs: ’18, ’19).

Contrary to last season, when Mikolas’ slider helped him perform like one of the majors’ top starters, troubling signs abound for the 2019 version of the righty. His struggles are a key reason why the Cardinals have gotten off to a mediocre start and are on track to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That’s not what the Redbirds had in mind when they bought high on Mikolas over the winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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