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Charlie Morton

Rays Place Charlie Morton On 10-Day Injured List

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9:02pm: Rays manager Kevin Cash said he’s optimistic Morton will return when he’s eligible Aug. 20, Eduardo E. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.

10:03am: The Rays have placed right-hander Charlie Morton on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his right shoulder, the team announced Monday morning. Lefty Jose Alvarado was reinstated from the paternity list in a corresponding move.

Morton, 36, exited Sunday’s outing after just two innings due to fatigue in his shoulder. The veteran righty said after the game that he wasn’t concerned with missing much time, but the organization clearly felt there was at least a need for a short-term reset. It’s been a tough start to the year for Morton, who has seen his fastball velocity dip by about two miles per hour as he’s worked to a 5.40 ERA in his first 16 2/3 frames.

Morton is still missing bats and throwing strikes, but his ground-ball rate has plummeted from 48.2 percent a year ago to 34 percent in 2020. With the uptick in fly balls has come an uptick in home runs; Morton yielded just 15 long balls in 194 2/3 frames in 2019 (0.69 HR/9) but has surrendered three so far in 2020 (1.62 HR/9).

The 2020 season is the second of Morton’s two-year, $30MM contract with Tampa Bay. He justified the cost of the contract — and then some — in year one of the deal alone, when he pitched to a 3.05 ERA and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. The Rays have an option over Morton for the 2021 season, and that option will now become quite interesting, depending on how long the right-hander is sidelined. The value of Morton’s option is tied to time spent on the injured list — which he avoided entirely in 2019. The option would settle at $15MM with fewer than 30 days on the IL between 2019-20 but could still drop to $10MM or even $5MM if he misses substantial time. (The option could’ve also landed at $3MM or $1MM, but that would’ve only happened had he missed considerable time in both seasons of the deal.)

Major League Baseball and the Players Association reached an agreement last month to prorate the qualifiers needed to unlock roster bonuses, vesting options, etc. As such, the 30-day figure that Morton would’ve needed to come in shy of is also prorated. An exact 10-day stint on the IL would still leave his option price at that $15MM mark, but if he misses even a couple days more than that, the value of his option would drop to $10MM. MLBTR confirmed as much earlier this year.

The Rays would open themselves up to a potential grievance if Morton’s camp felt he was being kept on the injured list just to drive down the value of his 2020 option, although the velocity drop and shoulder fatigue could certainly be used as justification for their decision. For now, it’ll be telling to simply see how long Morton remains shelved and whether any further diagnosis is provided.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Chapman, Rays, Morton, Nationals, Rizzo, Martinez

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The New York Yankees will make a decision about Aroldis Chapman’s timeline to return to action after a throwing session on Tuesday, per ESPN’s Marly Rivera. Chapman has yet to make an appearance this season. He tested positive for COVID-19 back on July 11th after showing mild symptoms. Chapman has been working his way back to full strength and hopes to return to the back end of the Yanks bullpen shortly. Last season, Chapman put together another top-notch campaign with 37 saves in 60 games and a 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP while striking out 13.4 batters per nine innings.

  • Charlie Morton of the Tampa Bay Rays left his start today with right shoulder inflammation, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The Rays do not appear to be overly concerned about Morton in the long-term. The 36-year-old hasn’t gotten off to a great start with a 5.52 ERA across three starts, though it’s obviously s small sample, and a 4.06 FIP isn’t quite so pessimistic of his performance.
  • The Washington Nationals aren’t any closer to coming to terms on an extension either for manager Dave Martinez or GM Mike Rizzo, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Both are in the final year of their current deals. The Nationals have proven a fairly conservative organization and one that won’t budge due to public perception. For their parts, both Martinez and Rizzo appear to have great trust in the organization. Given that the Nats are coming off a World Series championship, it’s hard to imagine either man moving on. Rizzo is the longstanding architect of these Nats – one of the most sustainable contenders of the last decade – while Martinez is the culture of the club in its current iteration. He has both the respect and the admiration of his players, by all accounts. This is pure conjecture, but Nats ownership may be taking a principled stance by waiting on these extensions. They’ve routinely let star players play out the final seasons of their deals, and it shows some organizational continuity to do the same with Rizzo and Martinez.

MLB, MLBPA Still Discussing Vesting Options, Retention Bonuses

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The length of the season, prorated salaries and protocols for health and safety are finally all set in place, but Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are still negotiating the manner in which contractual options, performance incentives/bonuses and escalator clauses will be handled, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required).

Fortunately, an agreement is believed to be “within reach,” per Rosenthal. The league had initially sought to prorate the value of 2021 options using the same formula as 2020 salaries, although the MLBPA obviously pushed back against that notion. There’s still some debate over the handling of vesting options — particularly those that are triggered by reaching a set number of games pitched or plate appearances over the life of multiple seasons. The two sides also must determine how those options would be treated in the event that the season is canceled at any point due to health concerns.

There aren’t too many vesting options in MLB this year, although some of the notable ones include:

  • Jon Lester, LHP, Cubs: Lester’s $25MM mutual option ($10MM buyout) for the 2021 season would become guaranteed with 200 innings pitched in a normal season.
  • J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees: Happ’s $17MM club option for the 2021 season would’ve become guaranteed upon making 27 starts or totaling 165 innings in 2020.
  • Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals: Miller’s $12MM club option for 2021 would have been guaranteed if he totaled 110 games between 2019-20. As Rosenthal explores, there are various ways to interpret how many more games he’d need to pitch to trigger that option — some more beneficial to Miller and others to the Cardinals.
  • Charlie Morton, RHP, Rays: Morton’s option is another that comes with a multi-year criteria. His contract calls for a $15MM club option in 2021 if he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list between 2019-20. The option value decreases if he spends additional time on the injured list. Morton avoided the IL entirely last year. Unlike Miller, who surely hopes the number of appearances he needs to make in 2020 can be prorated, it’d be beneficial to Morton for that number (30) to remain as is. That seems unlikely, but the disparity between the clauses of Miller and Morton illustrates that this isn’t exactly straightforward for the player side. The value of his option
  • Kelvin Herrera, RHP, White Sox: Herrera, too, needed 110 games between 2019-20 for his $10MM club option to become guaranteed. He pitched in 57 games last year, leaving him 53 shy of his target.
  • Wade Davis, RHP, Rockies: Davis’ $15MM mutual option would’ve converted to a $15MM player option in the event that he finished 30 games. He’d only need to finish out 11-12 games in the shortened 2020 season if the two sides go with a strictly prorated interpretation of the qualifiers.
  • Bryan Shaw, RHP, Rockies: Shaw has the same 110-game target for 2019-20 that Miller and Herrera have. He pitched 70 times in 2019 and needed just 40 appearances in 2020 to lock in a $9MM salary for the 2021 campaign.
  • Jake McGee, LHP, Rockies: With 60 games pitched or 40 games finished in 2020, McGee would’ve locked in a $9MM salary for the 2021 season. His contract also allowed the option to vest with a with 110 games between 2019-20, but he only pitched in 45 contests last year.
  • Stephen Vogt, C, Diamondbacks: Vogt’s contract included a $3MM club option that not only vests but increases to a $3.5MM base upon starting 45 games and appearing n a total of 75 games overall.
  • Dee Gordon, 2B/SS/OF, Mariners: Gordon would’ve been guaranteed a $14MM salary for the 2021 season with 600 plate appearances this year. That, of course, was extremely unlikely in the first place, though.

Beyond those options, there are myriad escalator clauses throughout baseball that could be impacted by the shortened schedule. It’s fairly common for club options and/or future salaries to be boosted by steady performance — particularly among players returning from injury. Take Dellin Betances, for instance. His contract with the Mets calls for the value of next year’s $6MM player option to increase by $800K upon pitching in 40 games. He’d receive additional $1MM boosts to that figure for appearing in 50, 60 and 70 games apiece.

The league and the union are also still discussing potential retention bonuses for six-year veterans on non-guaranteed deals. In a typical year, any player with six-plus years of service who finished the preceding season on a 40-man roster qualifies as an Article XX(B) free agent. Such players must either be added to the 40-man roster, released five days prior to Opening Day or paid a $100K retention bonus to remain with the club in the minor leagues. Many players in that situation are released and quickly re-signed to a new minor league deal, but that won’t be possible in 2020 due to the fact that players who are removed from a team’s 60-man pool become ineligible to return to that team this season.

The Rays’ Huge Win In Free Agency

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The Rays have crafted a reputation as one of the sport’s best organizations at finding undervalued talent. That typically manifests in frequent roster churn via trades and waiver claims. Given their budgetary limitations, the franchise has been decidedly less active in free agency. Last offseason, Tampa surprisingly stepped up to ink one of the better players available on the open market: right-hander Charlie Morton. The early returns couldn’t have been better.

In December 2018, the Rays added Morton on a two-year, $30MM guarantee. That’s hardly overwhelming money for most teams, but it no doubt accounted as a major splash by Rays’ standards. Morton’s $15MM salary counted for about a quarter of the club’s $60MM season-opening payroll last season, according to Cot’s Contracts. It was a major gamble for a front office lacking the resources of most of its rivals across the league. Nor was this a situation of a low-payroll team stepping in only after a free agent’s market fell way below expectations. Entering the offseason, the MLBTR staff projected a two-year, $32MM deal for Morton that almost perfectly aligned with the guarantee he actually received.

Morton’s age (he’d just turned 35) was the impetus for the contract’s short term. His performance over the prior two years had been fantastic. With the Astros from 2017-18, he spun 313.2 innings of 3.36 ERA/3.53 FIP ball with strong strikeout and ground ball numbers. His days as an unexciting back-end starter in Pittsburgh were long behind him. Morton had reinvented himself in Houston, sitting in the mid-90’s with a hammer curveball.

Nevertheless, even the Astros were reluctant to completely buy Morton’s late-career renaissance. They declined to offer him a $17.9MM qualifying offer. It was a bizarre move at the time that only looks worse in hindsight. That decision proved beneficial for Morton as a free agent, since his suitors needn’t worry about losing a draft pick to sign him. It proved equally beneficial for the Rays.

Would Tampa have still ponied up for Morton if doing so would’ve cost them their third-highest pick in the 2019 draft? Unclear. (They ended up selecting Campbell University right-hander Seth Johnson with that selection, if you’re curious). Fortunately, they didn’t have to make that decision.

Morton was brilliant in year one in Tampa. He tossed a career-high 194.2 innings with career-best marks in ERA (3.05), FIP (2.81), strikeout rate (30.4%), and both fWAR (6.1) and bWAR (4.9). He finished third in AL Cy Young voting, behind only a pair of former Astros’ teammates, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Morton was no doubt one of the biggest reasons the Rays advanced to an ALDS.

What does the future hold for Morton in Tampa? Hopefully, he’ll be able to play out his final guaranteed year under contract in 2020. If MLB doesn’t come to an agreement on a return to play this season, his situation will be more in flux. Morton’s contract calls for a club option of up to $15MM in 2021, one the Rays would almost certainly exercise given his 2019 dominance.

In February, though, Morton indicated he wasn’t sure he’d want to continue playing beyond 2020. How a potentially cancelled season could impact his thought process isn’t yet clear. Whatever the future holds, it’s apparent the Rays have already gotten a return well above and beyond the cost to bring Morton aboard.

Charlie Morton Undecided On Pitching Beyond 2020

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Rays ace Charlie Morton enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2019, tossing 194 2/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball with career-bests in K/9 (11.1) and BB/9 (2.6). No qualified starting pitcher in all of Major League Baseball surrendered home runs at a lower rate than Morton’s 0.69 HR/9 clip.

Morton is set to earn $15MM in 2020 — the second season of a two-year, $30MM deal with the Rays — and the Tampa Bay organization holds an option for a third season as well. However, Morton tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he isn’t certain he’ll continue pitching beyond the upcoming season, which will be his 13th in the Majors.

“If I throw really well and I feel really good, it’s going to be a tough decision,” the two-time All-Star said. Struggling through a poor season or enduring notable injuries, it seems, would hasten the 36-year-old’s desire to walk away from the game and spend more time with his family.

This isn’t the first time that Morton has questioned his future in the game. When he initially signed a two-year, $14MM deal with the Astros that spanned the 2017-18 seasons, Morton openly wondered how long he’d continue after the completion of that deal. Looking back and candidly expressing his pessimistic nature to Topkin, Morton hints that he never expected to find the increasing levels of success he’s enjoyed in recent years, though.

The 2019 season saw Morton finish third in American League Cy Young voting and make the All-Star team for a second consecutive season … after going without an All-Star nod for the first 11 years of his career. He ranked sixth among starting pitchers in terms of fWAR (6.1), fourth in FIP (2.81), eighth in strikeout percentage (30.4%) and 10th in K-BB% (23.2%). Morton was very arguably worth the entire $30MM sum of his contract (and then some) in year one alone.

Morton’s 2021 option will be valued at $15MM so long as he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list in 2020. He didn’t spend a single day on the IL in 2019. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario that sees Morton walk away from that type of salary on the heels of another excellent season, but it’ll surely be a family decision. Morton makes his home in nearby Bradenton and cited proximity to his family as a notable factor in opting to sign with Tampa Bay in the first place.

AL East Notes: Morton, Betts, Margot, Blue Jays, Wood, Sanchez

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Former Astros righty Charlie Morton became the latest player to address Houston’s electronic sign-stealing scandal, telling MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters that “personally, I regret not doing more to stop it” during his time with the club in 2017, while also admitting that he wasn’t certain what steps he could have taken to directly halt the sign-stealing system.  Morton has already spoken to some Rays teammates about the situation, and added that he didn’t believe the Astros were still doing anything illicit last October, when Houston defeated Tampa Bay in the ALDS.

2017 was a particularly unique year for Morton, as he wasn’t just a big part of a World Series-winning team, but his entire career was revived while pitching for the Astros, turning him from a borderline journeyman to his current top-of-the-rotation status in Tampa.  Despite his own fond memories, however, Morton knows and accepts that the Astros’ achievements have been overshadowed by the scandal.  “Certainly the public perception of that win has changed, and my peers, too….There are moments during the World Series that will always be special to me, that won’t be ’tainted.’  But certainly that’s justified, that’s a justified perception to have, and what people have expressed,” Morton said.

More from around the AL East…

  • Between all of the uncertainty surrounding the Mookie Betts trade and yesterday’s Padres/Rays trade that sent Manuel Margot to Tampa Bay, there has been some speculation that the Padres could be clearing center field for a late strike at acquiring Betts.  However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) suggests the opposite, noting that since Margot was reportedly part of the Betts negotiations between the Red Sox and Padres, sending Margot to the Rays indicates that San Diego decided to go in another direction.
  • The Blue Jays went into the offseason prepared to aggressively search for pitching, only to have to ramp up their approach when the free agent market moved much quicker than anticipated, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes in a wide-ranging overview of Toronto’s winter moves.  Davidi’s piece provides a breakdown of how the Jays pursued their targets, ranging from big names (i.e. Gerrit Cole, Yasmani Grandal) on both the rotation and position player fronts, as well as looking for value by checking in with seemingly just about every pitcher available.  The Winter Meetings seemed to be a key pivot point, as one player agent told Davidi that the Jays began to take a “totally different” approach in negotiations: “It’s like they realized what they’d been doing wasn’t working and decided to change things up.”  In essence, the Toronto front office reversed its strategy, abandoning the plan of acquiring an ace-level arm first and then adding more pitchers to a new tactic of signing mid-rotation hurlers (i.e. Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi) before finally landing a big fish in Hyun-Jin Ryu.
  • Adding to the long list of pitchers known to have garnered interest from the Blue Jays, Davidi reports that Toronto was also “in the mix for” both Alex Wood and Angel Sanchez.  Wood ended up signing with the Dodgers, one of his former teams, in mid-January on a one-year contract worth $4MM in guaranteed money (and another $6MM in incentives).  Sanchez bounced around multiple farm systems from 2011-17 with a Major League resume that included only 12 1/3 innings for the 2017 Pirates before finding success pitching in Korea over the last two seasons.  While Sanchez received some looks from the Jays and other MLB teams, he ended up heading from South Korea to Japan, signing a multi-year deal with the NPB’s Yomiuri Giants.

AL Pitching Notes: Indians, Kluber, Jays, Ryu, Rays, Morton, O’s

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The Indians brought an end to the Corey Kluber era earlier this month, trading the right-hander to the Rangers for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. On paper, it may not look like a great return for a two-time Cy Young winner, though it turns out teams just weren’t champing at the bit to surrender hauls for Kluber – a 33-year-old’s who expensive ($17.5MM guarantee for 2020) and coming off an injury-marred campaign. Thanks to those factors, when the Indians left this month’s Winter Meetings, the majority of offers they’d received only included players at the Single-A level, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com relays. So, in an effort to stay competitive in 2020, they took a pair of major leaguers (including Clase, whom they hope can blossom into a late-game force). The goal is to use some of the Kluber savings on an infielder, another outfielder and more bullpen help, per Pluto. The Indians may have crossed one of those needs off the list when they agreed to a $6.25MM deal with second baseman Cesar Hernandez on Monday.

  • The rebuilding Blue Jays made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason Sunday in agreeing to a four-year, $80MM contract with left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. While the former Dodger was among the game’s premier pitchers last season, his age (33 in March) and extensive injury history make him an especially risky pickup at such a high price tag. There’s a solid chance the deal will become regrettable for Toronto, Buster Olney of ESPN observes (subscription links), though he nonetheless applauds the Blue Jays for taking a chance in an attempt improve and become more interesting. As those who’ve followed the past few offseasons know, many teams have drawn the ire of fans and media for sitting on the sidelines instead of making earnest efforts to put a more competitive product on the field. At the very least, considering the active winter the Jays have had, they’re trying.
  • More from Olney (subscription), who expects Rays righty Charlie Morton to become a hot commodity on the trade market in the next year. There are no indications the Rays, coming off a stellar season thanks in large part to Morton’s elite output, are considering parting with the 36-year-old now. But with so few (or no) sure bets left on the free-agent pitching market, he’d surely bring back a sizable return in a deal at this moment. Morton’s also on a contract that would be appealing to most teams, as he’ll make $15MM in 2020. He has a $15MM option for 2021 that will become guarantee if he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list, but it’ll likely be a good problem for his employer if it does vest. Morton does not have no-trade protection built into his deal, so Tampa Bay could move him without his permission. However, Olney writes that the Rays have immense respect for the Cy Young contender, and if they do become open to parting with him, they’ll “probably feel out Morton” first.
  • Last season was one to forget for Orioles righty David Hess, who logged a 7.09 ERA/7.26 FIP over 80 innings. But Hess told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com he’s working diligently this winter in hopes of landing a rotation spot for 2020. Specifically, Hess followed the lead of teammate John Means by heading to P3 (Premier Pitching & Performance) in St. Louis. As Kubatko explains, P3 “offers personalized baseball training to athletes across the Midwest with the goal of providing instruction and individualized strength training.” Means, who recommended P3 to Hess, used the center’s guidance last offseason and then turned into one of the O’s true bright spots in 2019. Hess informed Kubatko that “this is really the first offseason where I’ve had baseball-specific work outside of just playing catch. Really trying to work on delivery-based stuff. Working on, not necessarily arm strength – I’ve always worked on that – but really cleaning up my arm path. So it’s similar in a lot of ways, but it’s also different. I guess the best way to say it is it’s very hyper focused.”

Nationals Notes: Morton, Anibal, Suzuki, Trades

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After two huge road wins over the Astros in the first two games of the World Series, the Nationals are headed back to Washington in command of the Fall Classic.  Here’s the latest on the NL champs….

  • Charlie Morton in a Nationals jersey?  It could’ve happened last winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Washington pursued the veteran righty, and the Nats “believe they were the runners-up” to the Rays for Morton’s services.  The Nationals made a offer similar to the Rays’ two-year, $30MM deal with Morton, though the turning point may have been Tampa’s closer proximity to Morton’s offseason home in Bradenton, Florida.  On paper, it would seem like Morton’s decision paved the way for the Nats to ink Anibal Sanchez to a two-year, $19MM deal, though Sherman writes that the Nationals considered signing both Morton and Sanchez, not to mention their blockbuster signing of Patrick Corbin earlier in the offseason.
  • Speaking of Sanchez, the idea of him starting Game 3 of the World Series would’ve seemed far-fetched two years ago, when the veteran righty’s career seemed to be on thin ice after struggling during the last three seasons of his five-year, $80MM contract with the Tigers.  Since then, however, Sanchez has gotten back on track in a major way, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello notes that no pitcher has a lower percentage of hard-hit balls over the last two seasons than Sanchez.  Reasons for the turn-around could include Sanchez’s increased prep work between starts, or a change in pitch usage, as the veteran hurler has greatly increased the use of his cutter and mostly abandoned his slider, formerly one of his primary offerings.
  • Sanchez also cited his relationship with catcher Kurt Suzuki as a big factor in his improved performance with both the Braves and Nationals, another example of how Suzuki has himself enjoyed something of a late-career renaissance.  As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) writes, Suzuki considered retiring following the 2016 season, and was hesitant about leaving his family in California to sign a one-year contract and play across the country with the Braves.  His wife convinced him to take the deal, however, and achieve Suzuki’s goal of ten full seasons of MLB service.  That clock is now running at well over 12 seasons and counting, as Suzuki has enjoyed three of his best seasons at the plate in 2017-19, and is now perhaps closing in on his first World Series ring.
  • Finally winning a championship would be the ultimate payoff to years of aggressive moves from GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals’ front office, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes.  Prospects such as Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse were dealt to the White Sox and Athletics in trades that brought the likes of Adam Eaton and Sean Doolittle to Washington, and the Nationals are comfortable seeing their former prospects go on to MLB stardom for other teams.  “It’s difficult to win consistently and have a good farm system because you use your prospect capital to acquire major league players. But that’s been our plan the whole time,” Rizzo said.  It helps that the Nats have been hung onto some prospects (i.e. Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg) who have turned into major homegrown stars, while also scoring in other trades that brought other big names like Trea Turner into the organization as youngsters.

Postseason Notes: Wild Card, Brewers, Dodgers

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As twenty teams prepare to pack it in for the offseason, a few odds and ends concerning those still remaining in the battle for a World Series crown…

  • The 2019 playoff picture is officially set. The Rays will head to Oakland for the AL Wild Card game on Wednesday, Oct. 2, with first pitch at 8:09 pm EST. Earlier this week, Rays manager Kevin Cash appeared on MLB Network Radio, where he made comments indicating that Charlie Morton would take the ball on Wednesday for Tampa. No official word has come from the Athletics regarding their own one-game stopper, but Billy Beane hinted to the San Francisco Chronicle that Sean Manaea may have the “inside track” to tackle the opportunity.
    The Nationals and Brewers will do battle on Tuesday at 8:08 pm EST in Washington D.C. for the NL play-in spot, where Max Scherzer is expected to take the ball for the Nationals. Meanwhile, Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays that Brandon Woodruff will be trusted by manager Craig Counsell to best Scherzer in the winner-moves-on affair (link). Woodruff may not carry the imposing resumé of Scherzer (nor does he possess a rare genetic variation that endows him with transfixing, multi-colored eyes), but he has looked the part of a frontline starter when healthy in 2019, with a 3.62 ERA (3.01 FIP) in 121.2 innings this season.
  • In other Brewers-related news, outfielder Ryan Braun expects to play in that Tuesday tilt against D.C. Haudricort also relays that outfielder Lorenzo Cain is “hopeful” for the game (link). Braun is dealing with a calf issue, while Cain has a balky ankle. As previously noted here, the Brewers may be limited to Trent Grisham or Tyrone Taylor in center if Cain is indeed too hindered to give it a ’go’ on Tuesday night.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hasn’t yet announced the full pitching lineup for the NLDS, but he tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Time that he is “feeling really good” about trusting Rich Hill with potential Game 4 duties (link). Hill was only activated from the IL on September 24th but did strike out five Padre hitters in just two innings of work in that appearance. As the number-one seed in the National League, the Dodgers will host the winner of the Nats-Brewers Wild Card play-in matchup. The Dodgers, in fact, will play at home throughout the postseason, unless they face the Astros in the World Series–by posting an MLB-best 107-55 record, Houston clinched homefield advantage through the Fall Classic.

 

The Rays May Have Another Cy Young Contender

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After a strong two-season run in Houston, right-hander Charlie Morton entered free agency last winter as one of the best starters available. Interest in Morton was widespread, thanks in part to the Astros’ decision not to issue him a qualifying offer, though age (35) prevented him from reeling in a long-term deal. Morton ultimately accepted a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays in December. Six months later, it’s looking like one of the steals of the offseason.

Facing the Athletics on Monday, Morton turned in his second consecutive seven-inning shutout and fourth straight quality start. During that four-appearance, 27-inning rampage, Morton yielded a mere three earned runs on 14 hits and posted 31 strikeouts against four walks. The Rays won all of those games, giving them a 10-4 record when Morton has taken the ball this season. Thanks in part to low-budget Tampa Bay’s decision to splurge (by its standards) on Morton, its sporting one of the American League’s leading records at 41-26

While Morton’s recent production has no doubt boosted his numbers, he has been consistently good all season. Morton’s ERA hasn’t risen any higher than 3.60, where it sat after his initial start of the season, and now rests at a microscopic 2.10. He trails only the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi among AL starters in that category, and most of his other production also ranks near the very top of his league. Take a look…

  • FIP: 2.67 (second)
  • WAR: 2.6 (fourth)
  • xFIP: 3.33 (fourth)
  • Weighted on-base average against: .254 (fifth)
  • Strikeouts per nine: 10.84 (seventh)
  • Expected weighted on-base average against: .271 (seventh)
  • Innings: 81 1/3 (15th)

The least impressive figure there is Morton’s innings total, though it still represents a step forward for someone who has long battled durability issues. Morton has never thrown 175 innings in a season, but he’s on pace for almost 200 this year.

We can’t necessarily call this a late-career renaissance because, with all due respect to Morton, his time in the majors wasn’t rife with great moments before he got to Houston. However, a significant rise in Morton’s fastball velocity in 2016 with the Phillies was likely the beginning of his awakening. Unfortunately for Morton and the Phillies, a hamstring tear late that April brought a quick conclusion to his season and, for all intents and purposes, an end to his short run in Philly. He headed to the Astros the next season, which began a 313 1/2-inning stretch of 3.36 ERA/3.53 FIP pitching, and helped the team to a World Series title in 2017.

It was somewhat of a surprise that Houston didn’t make more of an effort to retain Morton after last season, but the Rays have been the beneficiaries of the Astros’ choice. The Rays have gotten a different pitcher than the Astros’ version of Morton, not just in terms of results.

The hard-throwing Morton’s main pitch in 2018 was his four-seam fastball, which he threw at a 31.1 percent rate, according to Statcast. He complemented it with a curveball (29.3 percent), a sinker (27.1), a splitter (6.3) and a cutter (6.3). Now, he’s throwing his curve (36 percent) significantly more than any other pitch, with his sinker (24.2), four-seamer (23.5), cutter (11.8) and splitter (4.4) checking in as his secondary offerings. Morton has lost some velocity since last year, which could at least partially explain his change in approach. At the same time, though, if your curve’s as dominant as his, why not throw it as much as possible? The pitch ranks in the league’s 94th percentile as far as spin rate goes, per Statcast, and hitters have mustered a putrid .142/.170 wOBA/xwOBA against it. According to FanGraphs’ pitch values, it’s the premier curve in the AL.

If Morton continues to use his curve this effectively, he may end up in serious contention for the AL Cy Young just one year after fellow Ray Blake Snell won it. In the event Morton wins the award, he and Snell would become the first AL teammates to take home the honor in back-to-back seasons since the Indians’ CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee accomplished the feat in 2007-08. Even better for the Rays, Morton, Snell, Tyler Glasnow (if he returns from the injured list) and opener Ryne Stanek could make for a dominant postseason rotation should the team team clinch a playoff spot.

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