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Charlie Morton

Trade Candidate: Charlie Morton

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Charlie Morton’s time with the Orioles couldn’t have begun much worse. He started his first five appearances and lost all of them. His best outing in that stretch was a five-inning start in which he recorded 10 strikeouts but allowed five runs. By the end of April, he’d lost his rotation spot. He carried a 9.45 earned run average with nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (26) through 26 2/3 innings.

Morton spent the next three weeks working out of the bullpen. He allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 16 1/3 innings across six appearances. It was better than his early-season production but wasn’t a full-fledged turnaround. Injuries reopened a rotation spot at the end of May.

The 41-year-old Morton has seized the new starting opportunity. He has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his past eight starts. Over that stretch, he carries a 2.76 ERA. Morton has fanned more than a quarter of opponents with a vastly improved 7.5% walk rate. His 12.4% swinging strike percentage during that time is a top 30 mark in MLB. Morton’s fastball has gained some life. The heater averaged 93.7 MPH in April but has climbed to 94.4 MPH since the beginning of June.

Morton’s April struggles still leave him with a 5.18 ERA on the season. Yet he’s coming up on two months of the mid-rotation form he showed throughout his time with the Braves. This version of Morton is the pitcher the Orioles expected when they signed him to a $15MM free agent contract.

It’s an important development with two weeks until the deadline. Morton has quietly reemerged as an intriguing trade chip for a Baltimore team that is nine games below .500. As recently as six weeks ago, he seemed closer to a DFA candidate than a trade asset. He’s now probably the most appealing of Baltimore’s three impending free agent starting pitchers.

Zach Eflin has struggled since his suffering a lat strain in mid-April. He’s on the injured list with a lower back strain, though it seems likely he’ll return to make a start or two before July 31. Tomoyuki Sugano has a 6.62 ERA in seven starts since the beginning of June. Opposing hitters have a .327/.380/.520 slash line in that time. Sugano has a 14% strikeout rate and has allowed 1.72 homers per nine innings on the season. The O’s are going to have a difficult time drumming up interest.

Morton is owed a little more than $6MM the rest of the way. That’ll drop to roughly $4.75MM from the deadline through season’s end. That’s a decent sum for two months, but it’s reasonable if an acquiring team feels he’s back to being a playoff-caliber starter. Baltimore is going to get plenty of calls on All-Star slugger Ryan O’Hearn in the next couple weeks. Morton is pulling alongside Cedric Mullins and relievers Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto in their next tier of rental trade candidates.

Orioles Move Charlie Morton To Bullpen

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The Orioles used veteran starter Charlie Morton out of the bullpen last night when Kyle Gibson’s first start of the year was shorter than hoped, and it seems that’ll be the continued plan for Morton — at least in the short term. Manager Brandon Hyde announced today that Morton will pitch in relief for the time being (link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). The O’s haven’t closed the door on the 41-year-old returning to a starting role, but they’re hoping a change in role can help get him back on track.

It’s a disappointing outcome for both the team and for Morton personally. The 18-year big league veteran signed with the O’s on a one-year, $15MM contract over the winter. Morton was one of several one-year acquisitions for the Orioles’ rotation, joining Tomoyuki Sugano and Gibson in that regard. Baltimore’s baseball operations staff hoped that the infusion of aging veterans, paired with steps forward from young pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez and Cade Povich, would help them overcome the loss of ace Corbin Burnes, who signed with the D-backs in free agency.

Virtually nothing has gone right for the Orioles’ staff in 2025, however. Morton is hardly alone in terms of struggles, but his have been the most glaring. He’s appeared in seven games — five starts, one bulk appearance following an opener, and last night’s mop-up work — and been tattooed for a 9.45 ERA in 26 2/3 frames. His 15.2% walk rate is a career-worst, while his 18.8% strikeout rate is his lowest since 2015. Morton’s typically strong ground-ball rate has evaporated; he’s sitting on a career-low 36.7% mark and has averaged a career-worst 2.03 homers per nine innings pitched. He’s also displayed career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph), opponents’ barrel rate (11.1%) and hard-hit rate (48.9%).

The rest of Baltimore’s rotation hasn’t been quite as bad, but it’s still been a mess overall. Dean Kremer has been torched for a 7.04 ERA while working with career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates. Povich was terrific his last time out but still has an ERA of 5.04. Sugano boasts a sharp 3.00 ERA, but it’s hard to see that continuing when he has the fourth-lowest strikeout rate among all qualified big league pitchers.

Injuries have hit Baltimore’s staff hard. Zach Eflin has been out since mid-April due to a lat strain. Rodriguez initially hit the IL with elbow inflammation but has since been diagnosed with a lat strain of his own; he was recently moved over to the 60-day injured list. Trevor Rogers, Albert Suarez, Chayce McDermott, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells have all yet to pitch this season. Rogers dislocated his kneecap in January. McDermott suffered a lat strain in February. Suarez’s shoulder flared up in March. He’s now on the 60-day IL, too. Bradish and Wells had UCL surgeries performed just days apart last June.

There’s little recourse for the Orioles at the moment. Rookie Brandon Young made his MLB debut earlier this month but has struggled in both of his outings (6.23 ERA, eight walks in 8 2/3 innings). Gibson made his season debut last night and was promptly shelled for nine runs in 3 2/3 frames. Triple-A starters Kyle Brnovich, Cameron Weston and Thaddeus Ward have posted results that range from underwhelming to ugly.

Right now, the hope will be that Povich can build on his last solid outing in tonight’s series finale versus the Yankees. Baltimore has announced that Kremer, Sugano and Gibson will start this weekend, in that order, against a Royals club that has struggled to score runs in 2025. Baltimore is off again next Monday. That gives them the short-term luxury of skipping the fifth spot this next time through the rotation, but the O’s only have one off-day from May 6-28, so that’s a short-term reprieve.

The Orioles’ Struggling Rotation

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The Orioles remade their rotation in the offseason, but to the extent hoped for by Baltimore fans. Corbin Burnes departed in free agency, netting a compensatory draft pick, but the front office opted to go with a series of older veterans on one-year deals to round out the staff. Charlie Morton signed for $15MM. Longtime NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano landed a $13MM guarantee. Old friend Kyle Gibson signed late, inking a $5MM deal in late March. It was a big bet on in-house arms taking a step forward and on some older free agents fending off Father Time for another season.

That bet hasn’t paid off.

Baltimore starters have the worst earned run average in the majors, checking in at 6.11. Their combined 15.4% strikeout rate is also last in the majors, as is their 7.9% swinging-strike rate. No team’s rotation has allowed home runs at a higher rate than the Orioles’ 1.86 HR/9, and only two have yielded higher marks in terms of average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Sugano and Zach Eflin are the only two Orioles starters with an ERA under 6.00. Sugano’s 9.2% strikeout rate is the third-lowest among all starters with at least 10 innings, leading only Antonio Senzatela and Randy Vasquez. Eflin, at an uncharacteristic 11.8%, has the sixth-worst strikeout rate in that same set. He’s also on the injured list due to a mild lat strain. Grayson Rodriguez, the team’s best young starter, is currently out with a shoulder injury for which he recently sought a second opinion.

Currently, the O’s are trotting out a quartet of Sugano, Morton, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich. Morton, 41, has struggled more than any pitcher in baseball, yielding a 10.89 ERA with five homers in his 20 2/3 innings. Manager Brandon Hyde was asked about Morton today and wouldn’t commit to the veteran keeping his rotation spot. “I think anything’s on the table at this point, Hyde said, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. “We’re going to get through this series and then kind of see where we are.” Kremer, sitting on a 6.41 ERA, has also served up five homers in just 19 2/3 innings. Povich has been tagged for four homers in 18 1/3 innings and seen more than half of his opponents’ batted balls leave the bat with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph.

The Orioles drew plenty of criticism for their cautious offseason. They reportedly offered Burnes a four-year deal to stay, one that’s said to have come with a $45MM annual value, but a four-year term for a 30-year-old former Cy Young winner in free agency never seemed like it’d get the job done. The team seemed to place a heavy emphasis on sustaining long-term flexibility, which has been a theme under GM Mike Elias as he navigated his club’s lengthy rebuild.

Some of that lack of multi-year spending in past offseasons could be attributable both to the team’s rebuilding status and due to the now-former ownership group helmed by the Angelos family. There was significant in-fighting among the Angelos family over control of the franchise, and in any scenario where a team is up for sale, the current owners are going to be reluctant to commit to pricey, long-term commitments.

There was some hope that’d change under new owner David Rubenstein, who purchased the team last spring. But while the O’s have spent more both at the trade deadline and this past offseason, the commitments remained short term. Tyler O’Neill is the only free agent to sign a multi-year deal under Elias, but his contract lets him opt out after the current season. Eflin was controlled beyond 2024, but only for one additional season. Right or wrong, the perception exists that the Orioles are rather squeamish when it comes to longer-term spending.

Whether it was a deliberate calculation or mere happenstance that the O’s again went short-term in the rotation, the end result is a struggling group that runs the risk of undercutting a lineup full of excellent young hitters. There’s no firm indication as to when Rodriguez will be back. Eflin has been throwing on flat ground but has yet to work off a mound. He’ll presumably need a rehab assignment, too. A mid-May return seems like a best-case scenario. Right-handers Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish had UCL surgery last year and won’t be available until midseason. Albert Suarez was placed on the 15-day injured list after one appearance due to shoulder inflammation and has since been transferred to the 60-day IL.

There are some reinforcements coming for the Orioles, but none of it is likely to pitch at a front-of-the-rotation level. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that Gibson could join the big league club as soon as Friday. (Kubatko’s piece also contains candid, thoughtful and lengthy comments from Morton on his 2025 struggles, which readers are encouraged to check out in full.) Gibson has tossed 12 minor league innings and been effective in building up for the season, but the 37-year-old veteran is at best an innings-eating fourth starter at this point in his career.

Gibson isn’t the only arm on the mend. The Orioles announced this morning that left-hander Trevor Rogers will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A this week. Acquired last July in trade that sent Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins, Rogers is a former top-10 pick, top prospect and Rookie of the Year candidate whose star has dimmed amid a lengthy series of injuries. He was rocked for 15 runs in 19 innings for the Orioles following the trade before being optioned to Triple-A and closing out the year with a 5.65 ERA in his final five minor league starts. He’s a possible fresh arm, which the team needs, but it’s hard to bank on him contributing quality innings. He’ll also probably need a rehab stint of some length, given that he’s been dealing with his current knee issue since January.

For all their pitching struggles, the Orioles sit at 9-12. Their -20 run differential suggests they may be fortunate to be “only” three games under .500, but they’ve kept themselves afloat. If they can stick around in contention while patching together the rotation, then further adding to the rotation will be a primary focus once the trade market opens more fully in the summer. Until then, they’ll likely have to rely on in-house arms and hope the farm yields an unexpectedly productive option. Righty Brandon Young has already made his debut, and it stands to reason that names like Kyle Brnovich, Cameron Weston and perhaps former Nationals Rule 5 pick Thaddeus Ward could get looks if the current struggles continue to mount.

AL East Notes: Morton, Rays, Neander, Yankees

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As has been the custom over his last few seasons, veteran right-hander Charlie Morton talked things over with his wife after the 2024 campaign to figure out whether or not he would again try to ramp up for another run.  This time, however, Morton might’ve on some level made his decision even before his 2024 season was over.  Morton told MLB.com’s Jake Rill and other reporters that in his final start of the regular season with the Braves, “I remember walking off the field and just this like sinking feeling in my stomach — it just didn’t feel right.  I’m sure a lot of guys toward the end of their careers, they think about retiring, shutting it down, and you really want to walk off the field the last time and feel good about it.  And a lot of guys don’t get that opportunity.  I just didn’t feel good about it.  I felt like I could have done better.  I felt like I still had the tools to be a good pitcher in the big leagues.”

Now set to begin his 18th big league season, the 41-year-old Morton signed a one-year, $15MM deal with the Orioles.  It was an ideal fit for Morton both because the O’s are a contender, and for important off-the-field reasons.  Morton and his wife Cindy each have family relatively near the Baltimore area, and the Orioles’ Spring Training camp in Sarasota is near the Mortons’ home in Bradenton, Florida.

More from around the AL East…

  • Erik Neander said “we’ll look for those opportunities” to further bolster the position-player side, but the Rays’ president of baseball operations told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times believes the team’s offense can improve based on in-house sources alone.  “You’re counting on some players internally to take that next step forward or bounce back from where they’ve been, and that was similar to ’22 and obviously ‘23 offensively….There are an assortment of players we have that we think there’s good reason to believe they will be better than where they were last year, and/or just as a unit, that we can be a little bit more better….just kind of using history as a guide,” Neander said.  When considering adding veterans to the mix, Topkin notes that along with salary cost, the Rays also weigh whether or not that veteran could take at-bats away from a younger player that might well deliver similar production with the same playing time.
  • The Yankees have lost a total of 14 coaches, coordinators, and player-development personnel to other teams since the offseason began, with the New York Daily News’ Gary Phillips running through the full list of departed names throughout the organization.  As VP of player development Kevin Reese admits, this is an “unusually high” amount of turnover, though “when other teams are coming after them and getting promotions and bringing guys to the big leagues, that speaks well to the people that we had.  We take a lot of pride in having good people and continuing to build it.”  The depth of personnel may have contributed to the departures, as “there are only so many spots for people to move up before there’s a logjam,” said Rick Guarno, who is now the Mets’ Triple-A hitting coach after previously working as the hitting coach with the Yankees’ high-A affiliate.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Orioles Sign Charlie Morton

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The Orioles announced they’ve signed Charlie Morton to a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $15MM guarantee for the Wasserman client. Baltimore designated catcher René Pinto for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Morton, who turned 41 in November, joins the sixth team of his career in what’ll be his 18th MLB season. The two-time All-Star has spent the past four seasons with the Braves, where he combined for a 3.87 ERA over 124 starts. While Morton’s production has dipped slightly over the past couple years, he has avoided the kind of dramatic drop-off one might expect from a pitcher in his 40s.

The righty took the ball 30 times and worked to a 4.19 earned run average across 165 1/3 innings last year. He reached 30 starts and surpassed 160 frames in all four seasons during his late-career run in Atlanta. Morton struck out 23.8% of opposing hitters against a slightly elevated 9.3% walk rate. The strikeout rate was his lowest since his 2017 breakout in Houston but remained a couple points above the league average for starting pitchers.

Morton hasn’t lost much velocity despite his age. His fastball averaged 94 MPH last year, a tick below where it had been for the prior three seasons. His primary offering, his curveball, landed at its customary 81.5 MPH on average. Morton continues to generate elite spin and generally strong results against the breaking pitch. Opponents hit .200 against the curveball last season.

In aggregate, Morton’s 2024 production was that of a solid fourth starter. He ran into some trouble in the second half, though. Morton allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while giving up a lofty .279/.357/.469 batting line after the All-Star Break. Morton rebounded in September following a shaky August, while his strikeout and walk marks held steady throughout the season.

Atlanta, seemingly working with strict budget limits, never appeared interested in keeping Morton for a fifth season. There’s annual speculation that he could retire, but it became clear last month that he planned to return for another year. The Athletic’s David O’Brien has written that Morton wanted to sign with a team that played Spring Training near his Bradenton, Florida home. The Orioles qualify. Their complex is in Sarasota. Morton won’t be as close to home as he’d been in Georgia once the regular season begins, but that’s evidently less of a concern than the Spring Training geography.

Morton is Baltimore’s second veteran rotation addition of the winter. His signing comes three weeks after the O’s inked 35-year-old Japanese star Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13MM contract. Both pitchers project as durable back-end starters at this stage of their careers. The Orioles needed to add to their rotation behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez. Sugano and Morton each make sense in isolation, but neither brings anywhere near the upside they lost when Corbin Burnes walked.

The offseason is halfway complete. Baltimore has been tied to Jack Flaherty, the best unsigned starter. They’re an obvious fit for potential trade candidates like Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease. There’s no guarantee this is their final move. Through the offseason’s first couple months, however, they’ve shied away from making the kind of splash that many in the fanbase anticipated under new owner David Rubenstein. In addition to the rotation acquisitions, they signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a three-year deal that guaranteed just under $50MM and brought in Gary Sánchez as a backup catcher/designated hitter on an $8.5MM signing.

Eflin, Rodriguez, Morton and Sugano form the top four in Brandon Hyde’s rotation for now. Dean Kremer projects as the fifth starter. Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers, and younger pitchers Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are behind them. They’re building decent depth but arguably still need an impact arm to slot at the top of the staff.

Pinto, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He’s out of options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without clearing waivers. His spot on the 40-man roster seemed tenuous after the Sánchez pickup. Baltimore will have five days to trade him or put him back on the waiver wire. Pinto hit .231/.263/.404 in 82 major league games with Tampa Bay between 2022-24.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Free Agent Profile: Charlie Morton

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The 2024-25 offseason has seen starting pitchers enjoy a hot market practically from the start of the winter, and virtually every starter has signed a deal that surpassed expectations this winter. That’s led to a run on starters all throughout the winter, and as the 2025 calendar year begins just four starting pitchers who MLBTR predicted to land multi-year deals this winter remain on the market: Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana, and Andrew Heaney. With a number of clubs still hoping to add starting pitching help this winter, that means several teams are going to have to turn towards one-year deals in order to add to their rotation.

The list of players who figure to be available in that corner of the market is wide-ranging, with solid but unspectacular veterans like Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez as well as players hoping to rebound from down or injured seasons like Michael Lorenzen and Spencer Turnbull. One particularly unique group of pitchers available on one-year deals is a handful of aging veterans who have long been among the better starters in baseball but either can’t garner or aren’t interested in making multi-year commitments at this point in their careers. Former Cy Young award winners Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander all fall into this category, but the best of the group in 2024 was actually 41-year-old right-hander Charlie Morton.

Unlike the aforementioned trio, Morton isn’t a future Hall of Famer. He didn’t make his big league debut until he was 24 years old and didn’t fully break out as a front-end starter until his age-33 season, which came with the Astros back in 2017. Since then, however, Morton has been among the better pitchers in the sport. He’s grown into one of the more durable starters in the sport with more than 1200 innings of work over the past eight seasons, good for eighth in the majors. Among starters with at least 1000 innings of work during that time, Morton’s 3.64 ERA and near-matching 3.63 FIP rank ninth, while his fantastic 27.4% strikeout rate ranks sixth behind only Scherzer, Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell.

That steady, reliable production would have made Morton an attractive free agent for a number of clubs in recent years, but his last foray into free agency was back in the 2020-21 offseason, when he limited his market to just Atlanta and Tampa Bay in an effort to remain close to his family. Since then, he’s signed successive short-term extensions with the Braves in order to remain in Atlanta. In four years as a member of the Braves, Morton pitched to a 3.87 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 3.92 FIP in 686 1/3 innings of work, positioning himself as a durable mid-rotation arm.

There’s been some variance in Morton’s work with Atlanta, as he posted top-of-the-rotation caliber results in 2021 and ’23 but was closer to league average in 2022 and ’24. Even in those down years, though, Morton’s durability made him a quality rotation option not unlike Gibson. With the floor of a sturdy, back-of-the-rotation veteran and the ceiling of a playoff-caliber starter, Morton stands out among the remaining starters available as something like the best of both worlds; he’s been as durable over the years as a veteran like Gibson or Patrick Corbin, but with recent success that easily clears those more reliable arms.

While even Morton’s best years pale in comparison to what the aforementioned trio of aging aces looked like at their peak, Morton’s numbers after the past two years are actually very similar to Scherzer’s on a rate basis: Scherzer has posted a 3.81 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.29 FIP since the start of the 2023 season, while Morton has posted a 3.92 ERA (108 ERA+) with a 4.17 FIP over the same time frame. Scherzer’s 26.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are better than Morton’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate, but Morton benefits from a much higher groundball rate and of course has nearly double Scherzer’s volume over the past two years.

While betting on a pitcher who’s already celebrated his 41st birthday will always come with risk, Morton’s impressive durability and consistent track record of success make him one of the most intriguing mixes of upside and stability still available in free agency at this point. With that said, it doesn’t appear that the veteran has fully decided whether or not he’ll return to the mound at all for 2025. Morton has frequently considered hanging up the glove to join his family at their home in Florida, and while initial reports indicated his intention to pitch in 2025, Morton’s plans seemingly remain up in the air as he would likely wind up somewhere other than Atlanta for the coming season.

Reportedly, Morton’s preference is to pitch for a team that hosts their Spring Training in Florida so he can stay close to home for more of the season. Aside from the Braves and Rays, the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, Marlins, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals, and Nationals all play in the Grapefruit League during the spring. The majority of those teams are either facing significant payroll constraints or unlikely to add rotation help this winter, but the Orioles, Astros, Tigers, and Mets could all be speculative potential destinations for the right-hander should he wind up departing Atlanta.

No Recent Contract Talks Between Braves, Charlie Morton

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Charlie Morton is still deciding whether to return for an 18th big league season, according to The Athletic’s Jayson Stark. If he does choose to play, the righty may need to find a new landing spot after four years with the Braves.

Stark’s colleague David O’Brien writes that Morton and the Braves have not had any recent contract talks. Atlanta and Morton had preliminary discussions shortly after the postseason, but it appears the team has pivoted to other targets as they look for outfield and pitching help. Morton is open to pitching elsewhere, though O’Brien writes that the two-time All-Star prefers teams that host Spring Training near his home in Bradenton, Florida. In addition to Atlanta, the Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, Pirates and Tigers are among the teams that could fit that description.

Morton played this past season on a $20MM club option. Even in a strong pitching market, he’ll probably need to take a reduction this winter. Morton turned in back-of-the-rotation results over 30 starts. He worked to a 4.19 ERA across 165 1/3 innings. Morton struck out 23.8% of batters faced with a 46.3% ground-ball percentage. While that was his strongest grounder rate since 2021, his strikeouts have dropped in consecutive seasons. Morton fanned 25.6% of opponents in 2023 and posted a 28.2% strikeout rate back in ’22.

The velocity and swinging strike rate have also gone backwards slightly. Morton averaged roughly 94 MPH on his fastball and posted an 11.4% swinging strike rate. Both numbers are solid but below his 2021-23 production. Those yellow flags started to catch up to him as the season progressed. Morton carried a 4.07 ERA into the All-Star Break. He allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while opponents hit .279/.357/.469 in the second half.

None of that is to say that Morton isn’t still a solid pitcher. There’s value in a veteran who can top 150 innings with roughly league average results. Even if he projects more as a #4/5 starter than the mid-rotation arm he’s been for most of his career, he could land something like the $13MM which Kyle Gibson got last winter.

That could be beyond Atlanta’s comfort zone financially. The Braves pushed close to the third tier of luxury tax penalization this year, their second straight season paying the tax. It doesn’t appear they’re inclined to match that spending level next season. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $217MM, including arbitration estimates. That puts them around $24MM shy of the base threshold.

Atlanta could look to limbo under the tax line to reset their status and avoid the escalating penalties levied on repeat payors. That doesn’t appear to be a firm mandate, however. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves would be willing to pay the tax again under certain circumstances. “It’s just a percentage you’re going up. It’s for every dollar over. You’re aware of it, but it doesn’t stop you from doing anything,” he said (link via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). “If the right opportunity presents itself, we’ll do it.”

That said, Atlanta’s start to the winter has been quiet. They restructured deals for Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López to move some money back to future seasons. The Braves dumped Jorge Soler’s salary for no return, as they ended up non-tendering the player they acquired (Griffin Canning). Atlanta seemingly made little effort to retain Max Fried, nor is there any indication they made a serious play for speculative target Willy Adames. Their only MLB acquisitions thus far are split deals for Carlos D. Rodriguez and Connor Gillispie.

The Braves have almost never been free agent spenders under Anthopoulos. They’ve made much more of an impact on the trade market. Perhaps there’s another such move on the horizon, but they could also be relying on internal rotation options to step up after losing Fried and Morton.

Chris Sale will lead the staff on the heels of his first Cy Young win. López and Spencer Schwellenbach slot behind him as a strong 2-3 combination. Spencer Strider isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, but he could return from his internal brace procedure within the season’s first half. The back of the staff is questionable. Ian Anderson hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2022. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep struggled with their command in the minors. Bryce Elder performed well in Triple-A but was rocked for a 6.52 ERA in 10 major league starts.

That could open a rotation opportunity for Grant Holmes depending on how the remainder of the offseason progresses. The 28-year-old righty pitched mostly in relief this year, working to a 3.56 ERA over 26 MLB appearances (seven starts). Anthopoulos said this week that the Braves were intrigued by the possibility for Holmes to grab a rotation job in Spring Training. “He’s someone that we’d like to find out what he can do, because we do think there’s significant upside there if he can get a starting spot,” Anthopoulos said (link via Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). “But again, that won’t stop us from either trading for or signing any starter.”

Charlie Morton Planning To Pitch In 2025

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Veteran right-hander Charlie Morton has seemingly been mulling retirement for more than a half decade, but he’s continued his career on a series of one-year deals, leaving open the possibility that each successive year will be his last. That won’t be the case with 2024, however. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that Morton intends to suit up for an 18th MLB season next year.

Morton, who turns 41 today (happy birthday, Charlie!), has spent the past four seasons in Atlanta, anchoring the rotation as a durable innings eater amid frequent injury troubles throughout the rest of the starting staff. Despite those years representing his age-37 through age-40 campaigns, Morton has made at least 30 starts and pitched at least 163 1/3 innings each of the past four seasons. He’s provided more than just bulk work, as well; in 686 1/3 innings for the Braves, the grizzled righty has pitched to a sharp 3.87 ERA while striking out 26.6% of his opponents against a 9.3% walk rate.

The 2024 season wasn’t Morton’s best in Atlanta but was still a solid year all around. He logged 165 1/3 frames and turned in a 4.19 earned run average. Last year’s 23.8% strikeout rate was Morton’s lowest since his late-career breakout with the Astros, which began in his age-33 season, but it was still enough to check in about a percentage point north of league-average. Morton’s 9.3% walk rate was worse than average but marked an improvement over the career-worst 11.6% mark he turned in during the 2023 season. His 46.3% grounder rate was strong, and he generally did a fine job avoiding hard contact. It wasn’t the Cy Young-caliber performance Morton flashed in his 2018-19 peak, but it was a fine showing for a veteran third or fourth starter.

Logically speaking, a reunion with the Braves seems possible. Atlanta is looking for innings behind staff leaders Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach. Young ace Spencer Strider will miss the beginning of the season as he continues mending from last year’s UCL surgery. Longtime Atlanta star Max Fried is a free agent and seems likely to sign elsewhere on a contract beyond the Braves’ comfort zone. Morton has also been happy to pitch in the southeast region of the country, close to his young family in Florida.

On the other hand, the Braves are all but certain to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season this year. That’ll mean at least a 50% tax on any dollars over the luxury barrier, and perhaps more — depending on the extent by which they surpass this year’s $241MM mark. Morton earned $15MM from 2019-21 and has been paid $20MM in each of the past three seasons in Atlanta. Even if he’s likely looking at a pay cut from that level, he should still be able to land a salary north of $10MM, barring an unexpected discount to pitch in a locale of his preference. For an Atlanta club also looking to upgrade at shortstop and add to the bullpen in the wake of Joe Jimenez’s injury, a hefty one-year price tag on what’d be a fourth or fifth starter for them when or if everyone is healthy might be a bridge too far. Per RosterResource, the Braves’ current luxury projection is already at $228MM — just $13MM shy of this year’s threshold.

If Morton does end up leaving the Braves, it’s likely he’ll land with a contending club. At age 41, he’s unlikely to sign on for any rebuilding efforts or to mentor a group of young arms. He’ll look for an opportunity to pitch in the middle of what already looks like a postseason staff, adding some stability and significantly raising the floor of a new club’s rotation.

Morton would also have the chance to reach some more personal milestones; Morton is 12 wins shy of 150 in his career and would have a realistic chance at moving into the top-70 all time in strikeouts (he’s currently 82nd). With a strong performance in 2025, he could also nudge his career ERA under 4.00. He entered the 2024 season at 4.00 flat and raised it to 4.01 with this season’s 4.19 performance.

Latest On The Braves’ Rotation Plans

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On the heels of the Braves’ abrupt elimination from the postseason after being swept out of the Wild Card Series in two games by the Padres, Atlanta will now turn its attention to the coming offseason.

The dominating narrative of the club’s winter figures to be the future of longtime starter Max Fried, who has been a stalwart of the club’s rotation for the past half decade but is slated to hit free agency in November. The 30-year-old southpaw figures to be one of the better starting pitching options on the free agent market this winter alongside former NL Cy Young award winners Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. In 112 starts since the start of the 2020 season, Fried has pitched to a sterling 2.81 ERA (151 ERA+) with a 3.11 FIP in 659 innings of work. That’s the sort of run prevention talent that’s sure to score a significant payday in free agency, even in spite of his relatively pedestrian 23.6% strikeout rate over that same window.

What’s unclear at this point, however, is how involved the Braves will be in the bidding process for his services in 2025 and beyond. Fried is a key part of the club’s nucleus of talent and was a major piece of their 2021 World Series championship, but the same could also be said of both Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson when the pair hit free agency. Both Freeman and Swanson ultimately signed hefty contracts elsewhere while the Braves managed to continue to contend without them. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, it would not be a surprise to see the club follow a similar path with Fried. After all, Atlanta figures to welcome Spencer Strider back into the rotation sometime early next year, and the immensely talented righty would form a frightening front-end duo with likely NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.

Such a fearsome pairing at the front of the rotation could make the Braves comfortable with losing Fried, and O’Brien suggests that the club’s offseason shopping list may only require adding a veteran depth starter who can help fill things out behind Strider, Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Spencer Schwellenbach. While such a pursuit “seems likely,” O’Brien does note that the club could also simply stick with its deep internal reservoir of optionable starting talent that includes Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson.

Both Elder and Anderson have enjoyed significant success in the majors previously, while the club trusted Smith-Shawver to take the ball in Game 1 against the Padres earlier this week and Waldrep entered 2024 as a consensus top-50 prospect int he sport. It’s certainly feasible that one or more of those arms could emerge as a quality piece of the rotation mix in Atlanta next year, the quartet posted a combined 7.23 ERA in 61 innings of work in the majors this year. What’s more, only Elder has significant recent big league experience among that group: Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have combined for just nine total big league appearances in their careers, while Anderson last pitched in the majors back in 2022.

With such uncertainty surrounding those young options, it seems like adding another proven starter to the rotation mix should be a priority for the club even if they don’t aggressively pursue a reunion with Fried. Should the Braves shy away from the top of the market this winter, a handful of interesting mid-rotation arms should be available such as Michael Wacha, Andrew Heaney, and Luis Severino. Even a back-end starter in the mold of Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez could be a solid addition that would provide the club with some stability in the #5 spot of its rotation while still leaving the door open for one of that aforementioned group of internal arms to seize a rotation spot. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently previewed the upcoming class of free agent starters, many of whom could be plausible fits for the club’s needs this winter.

Even if the club does pursue an innings-eating veteran for the back of its rotation, O’Brien notes that the club re-signing Charlie Morton for that role is “unlikely.” He goes on to relay that the organization believes the soon to be 41-year-old veteran could opt to call it a career rather than continue pitching in 2025 despite his roughly league average 4.19 ERA in 30 starts with Atlanta this year. A Florida native, Morton has preferred to pitch close to home in recent years, having pitched two seasons with the Rays from 2019-20 before pitching for Atlanta in each of the past four seasons. Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the veteran decided it was time to hang ’em up and spend more time at home with his family even as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that Morton has so far said that he isn’t ready to make any announcements about his future one way or the other at this point.

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