Cubs Rumors

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The Cubs made a pair of significant signings, but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.

Major League Signings

• Dansby Swanson, SS: seven years, $177MM
• Jameson Taillon, SP: four years, $68MM
• Drew Smyly, SP: two years, $19MM.  Can opt out of one year, $11MM with 100 innings pitched in 2023
• Cody Bellinger, CF: one year, $17.5MM.  Includes $25MM mutual option for 2024 with a $5MM buyout
• Trey Mancini, DH/1B/LF: two years, $14MM.  Can opt out of one year, $7MM with 350 plate appearances in 2023
• Tucker Barnhart, C: two years, $6.5MM.  Can opt out of one year, $3.25MM after 2023
• Michael Fulmer, RP: one year, $4MM
• Brad Boxberger, RP: one year, $2.8MM.  Includes $5MM mutual option with an $800K buyout
• Edwin Rios, 3B: one year, $1MM.  Can be controlled through 2025 through arbitration
• Eric Hosmer, 1B: one year, $720K
• Total spend: $310.52MM

Options Exercised

• None

Trades and Claims

• Acquired IF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni from Rays for RP Alfredo Zarraga
• Claimed IF Rylan Bannon off waivers from Braves (later claimed by Astros)
• Claimed P Anthony Kay off waivers from Blue Jays (lated outrighted)
• Claimed RP Julian Merryweather off waivers from Blue Jays

Notable Minor League Signings

• Brailyn Marquez, Eric Stout, Ben DeLuzio, Roenis Elias, Nick Neidert, Ryan Borucki, Brad Wieck, Dom Nunez, Vinny Nittoli, Mike Tauchman, Jordan Holloway, Luis Torrens, Tyler Duffey, Mark Leiter Jr.

Extensions

• None

Notable Losses

• Willson Contreras, Rafael Ortega, Alfonso Rivas, P.J. Higgins, Franmil Reyes, Jason Heyward, Wade Miley, Michael Hermosillo

The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach.  It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years.  Otherwise, manager David Ross’ coaching staff largely remained the same.

The Cubs had telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave, but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation.  Contreras, of course, declined.  Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.

From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “Big Four” free agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.  Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.

As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history.  The Cubs’ choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.

Trea Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300MM agreement with the Phillies on December 5th, the first day of the Winter Meetings.  That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268MM projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad.  But also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342MM, which topped our projection by about 28%.

Having left a reported $42MM on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong east coast preference was accurate.  I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so.  Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that Big Four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations.  It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free agent position player, having offered $342MM to Turner and reportedly around $415MM to Aaron Judge.

Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins, and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280MM on December 8th.  MLBTR was at $189MM for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91MM.  I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was.  It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200MM range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.

The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond their comfort zone.  MLBTR had predicted $288MM for Correa.  But five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical.  That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.

As of December 17th, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening.  That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa.  Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement.  While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.

Even to reach $177MM for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone.  The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years.  Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range.  He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average.  The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.

It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well.  The Cubs lost the #49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson, but also gained the #68 pick for the loss of Contreras.  Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.

Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical.  The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture.  The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315MM deal, lopping off $35MM from the Giants’ price.  The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by January 5th other teams were again getting involved.

It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman.  But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout.  And the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication they tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300MM deals.  Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200MM, the Twins had clear advantages: they were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.

So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the Big Four shortstops.  But given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the Cubs’ current ownership.

Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins.  Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022.  Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.

Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free agent starting pitcher target.  Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.”  It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72MM, but he took $68MM from Chicago.

While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17-18MM average annual values.  Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling.  The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family.  The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.

The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher.  The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal.  The fit works for several reasons: his defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024.  For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.

Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and Sean Murphy.  Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart.  Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop.  Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base, and at DH as needed.  Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free agent market.

Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway.  The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13MM salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing.  It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half.  The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup.  Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure.  Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.

For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys.  However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”  So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.

The bulk of the Cubs’ offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon.  Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons.  On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras.  Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.

For a club that has committed over $500MM in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious.  Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot.  The CBT is set at $233MM this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219MM range.  The CBT rises to $237MM in 2024, $241MM in ’25, and $244MM in ’26.

Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100MM, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason.  While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll)