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Cubs Aren’t Trading Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

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After months of speculation, the Cubs will pass the trade deadline without moving two of their biggest trade chips.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that both catcher Willson Contreras and outfielder Ian Happ will both be staying put in Wrigleyville.

It hasn’t exactly been a quiet deadline for the Cubs, as Mychal Givens, David Robertson, Chris Martin, and Scott Effross have all been shipped out of town in the last few days.  But beyond this bullpen exodus, it seems that Chicago will be hanging onto its two most heavily-sought after position players, despite many rumors about other teams’ interest.

Clubs such as the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Padres had been linked to Happ, who is hitting .279/.360/.436 over 408 plate appearances and was just named to his first All-Star team.  While Happ’s production has been somewhat inconsistent over his six MLB seasons, he has been a solidly above-average hitter overall, and also emerged as capable defensive player in center field.

Since Happ is arbitration-controlled through the 2023 season, there may not have been quite the urgency on Chicago’s part to move the 27-year-old unless another team stepped forward with a knockout offer.  The Cubs continue to give mixed signals about their near-term and longer-term plans to contend, yet since their most recent moves have trended towards more retooling, it is probably safe to guess that Happ will continue to feature in trade rumors throughout the offseason and up until next year’s deadline if Chicago isn’t in contention.

The lack of movement on Contreras, however, is harder to figure.  The longtime Cubs catcher is a free agent after the season, and since the team aggressively moved several pending free agents (i.e. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez) at last year’s deadline, it seemed like a sure bet that Contreras would follow suit this season.  If anything, it may have been a little surprising that Contreras wasn’t moved last year as well, except the idea that the Cubs wanted to keep the catcher and sign him to a contract extension also didn’t come to fruition.

The Mets, Rays, Padres, and Astros were all linked to Contreras in recent rumors, though Houston instead obtained Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox as a catching upgrade.  Tampa Bay acquired Christian Bethancourt earlier in July, and now he’ll stand as the Rays’ only catcher trade of deadline season.

As for other suitors, it could be that the Mets, Padres, and the ever-popular “mystery teams” simply didn’t step forward with an offer that met the Cubs’ liking.  San Diego will continue with the respectable Austin Nola/Jorge Alfaro tandem at catcher, and the smaller-scale depth addition of Cam Gallagher from the Royals.  (Plus, it could simply be most of the Padres’ trade attention was focused on larger matters like the Juan Soto blockbuster).  New York ended making only relatively minor upgrades instead of any big swings at the deadline, and the team will now have to continue to hope that James McCann can get back on track.

Another factor to consider is the recent lack of an agreement between the league and the players’ union about the implementation of an international player draft.  Since that deal wasn’t reached, the old qualifying offer system will remain in place throughout the life of the current collective bargaining agreement, and thus the Cubs would get a compensatory draft pick back for Contreras if he rejected a QO and signed elsewhere.  That means that essentially, other teams had to offer something that the Cubs preferred to that extra pick.

Even with all of this in mind, it is still surprising that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer couldn’t find any kind of acceptable trade match for Contreras, either in the days leading up to the deadline or even back during the offseason.  Considering the lack of extension talks, it would seem unlikely that the two sides will match up on a new deal before Contreras hits the open market, or after he becomes a free agent and has 29 other teams to bid on his services.  Contreras has been open about the stress and uncertainty he has faced with all of this nonstop trade buzz, but while that noise will quiet, some awkwardness may remain over what could be his last two months in a Cubs uniform.

Willson Contreras Rumors: Deadline Day

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“I’m ready for this to be over with,” Willson Contreras told reporters in San Francisco on Sunday regarding the trade rumors that have swirled around him for months.  Contreras has very likely played his last game for the Cubs, who are widely expected to trade their longtime catcher before today’s 5pm deadline.  Contreras, 30, broke into the Majors during the Cubs’ 2016 championship season and made three All-Star teams, including this year.  The club chose not to extend him along the way, so now Contreras is on the eve of free agency and will be joining a pennant race before long.  Here’s the latest:

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Phillies To Acquire David Robertson From Cubs

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The Phillies have made a notable addition to their bullpen, reportedly acquiring David Robertson from the Cubs. Pitching prospect Ben Brown is going back to Chicago in return.

Robertson was arguably the top bullpen arm available this summer. The veteran righty signed a one-year, $3.5MM deal with Chicago during Spring Training. He quickly emerged as the club’s primary closer, saving 14 games during his 36 appearances. Robertson tossed 40 1/3 innings of 2.23 ERA ball, striking out over 30% of opposing hitters while inducing ground-balls at an above-average 48.3% clip. The 37-year-old has issued a few more walks than one would like (11.5%), but Robertson’s cutter-curveball combination is easily handling opposing hitters. He’s generating swinging strikes on a strong 13.7% of his offerings that’s not too far off the rates of his best days with the Yankees and White Sox.

A former All-Star, Robertson was a durable and atypically consistent reliever for the bulk of his time in New York and on the South Side of Chicago. That led to a two-year contract with the Phils over the 2019-20 offseason, but Robertson’s first stint in Philadelphia didn’t go as hoped, though not through any fault of his own. Robertson blew out his elbow just seven games into that deal. He missed the rest of 2019 and ’20 recovering, then returned midway through the 2021 campaign with the Rays. Since getting back to health, Robertson has a 2.75 ERA through 52 1/3 frames. The Phils will take another shot on him to bolster the mid-late innings mix.

Robertson will be a free agent at the end of the year. In addition to his base salary, he’s on pace to reach all of his incentives (including a $100K trade bonus), which would bring his total salary up to $5.1MM. Still, for a pitcher with his track record, that’s a reasonable price to pay. The Phils bullpen has been solid of late, but the club has had longstanding issues finding consistent results in the back end.

In exchange for their low-cost dice roll on Robertson, the Cubs recouped a half-season of excellent work and eventually turned him into a longer-term addition to the organization. Brown, 22, was a 33rd-round pick back in 2017. The 6’6″ hurler has had a breakout 2022 season, pitching to a 3.08 ERA through 73 innings at High-A. He’s fanned 35.4% of opponents against a 7.7% walk rate. Baseball America recently ranked him the #7 prospect in the Philadelphia system, praising his plus fastball-slider combination but suggesting sporadic control could eventually push him to a bullpen role. Brown will have to be added to the Cubs 40-man roster this winter to avoid being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Phillies were acquiring Robertson. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Brown’s inclusion in the deal.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Ian Happ Rumors: Deadline Day

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The last time we checked in on Cubs outfielder Ian Happ, it was when ESPN’s Jeff Passan revealed last Friday that the team is “likely to trade him.”  Happ, 28 in August, has a 122 wRC+ on the season.  He’s got about $2.4MM remaining on his contract this year, and will be eligible for arbitration for 2023.  If the Cubs want to trade the 2015 first-rounder prior to the offseason, they’ve got fewer than nine hours to get it done.  Here’s the latest:

Bullpen Rumors: Soto, Givens, Moore

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While just about any team in need of bullpen help would love to get its hands on Tigers closer Gregory Soto, Detroit is setting a lofty asking price, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Tigers are seeking multiple MLB-ready or nearly MLB-ready pieces and will surely be focused on players with several years of club control remaining, given that Soto himself has three years of team control beyond the current campaign. The 27-year-old is averaging a massive 98.6 mph on his heater and has pitched to a 2.36 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, a 10.3% walk rate, a 46.5% ground-ball rate and 19 saves so far in 2022. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports that the Astros are among the clubs with interest. Houston hasn’t had a single left-handed reliever eclipse ten innings this season, so it’s no surprise they’d have their eyes on a high-end southpaw like Soto.

More rumblings on the bullpen market…

  • The White Sox picked up Jake Diekman in a deal with the Red Sox this evening, but they’re still on the hunt for relief help. Bruce Levine of 670 the Score reports that the Sox are among the clubs with interest in Cubs reliever Mychal Givens (Twitter link). The veteran righty is quite likely to move by tomorrow evening’s deadline, as he’s on track to hit free agency after the season. Givens’ deal contains a 2023 mutual option, but those are rarely exercised by both sides. The righty is due what remains on a $3.5MM salary for this season, plus a $1.5MM buyout on the option. Givens, who signed with the Cubs over the offseason, has a 2.66 ERA across 40 2/3 innings. He’s punched out an excellent 29.7% of opponents, although his 11% walk rate is a bit higher than ideal. Nevertheless, a relatively affordable middle reliever with a strong track record and Givens’ bat-missing abilities should attract interest from contenders.
  • As part of an overview on the Rangers deadline outlook, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News posits that reliever Matt Moore is the most likely player on the club to be traded. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Moore’s trade candidacy a few weeks ago, noting that the veteran southpaw has adapted well to a bullpen conversion after a career as a primary starter. Signed to a minor league deal over the winter, Moore made the big league roster two weeks into the season. He’s followed with 48 2/3 innings over 36 outings, posting a 1.66 ERA with an above-average 26.1% strikeout rate and a huge 52.5% grounder rate. An elevated walk percentage (12.1%) stands as a bit of a black mark on his record, but that combination of strikeouts and grounders will no doubt appeal to contending clubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that Moore — as well as Tigers reliever Michael Fulmer — was on the Yankees radar, but it’s not clear whether those hurlers are still on the wish list after New York brought in Scott Effross and Lou Trivino in separate deals this afternoon.

Yankees Acquire Scott Effross From Cubs

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For the second trade deadline in a row, the Yankees have bolstered their bullpen with an under-the-radar arm from the NL Central. The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve acquired right-hander Scott Effross from the Cubs in exchange for minor league right-hander Hayden Wesneski.

Scott Effross | Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Effross, 28, isn’t a household name but has been outstanding since the Cubs promoted him for his Major League debut in 2021. The sidearming righty has tallied 58 2/3 innings as a big leaguer to date and posted a 2.91 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate, a 5.1% walk rate and a 46% ground-ball rate.

While Effross throws right-handed, he’s been far more effective against lefties than right-handers to this point in his big league career, which surely held appeal to the Yankees (and to other teams). That’s not to say that he’s ineffective against fellow righties — far from it — but Effross has held lefties to a putrid .160/.250/.253 batting line through 85 plate appearances. Right-handed hitters have had struggles of their own, hitting Effross at a solid .262 clip but posting a meager .287 OBP and just a .369 slugging percentage.

Because Effross is only in his second big league season and entered the year with less than one full year of Major League service time, he’s controllable for another five years beyond the current campaign. He’ll be arbitration-eligible following the 2024 campaign and won’t reach free agency until the 2027-28 offseason.

The acquisition of Effross is pivotal for a Yankees team that has seen its previously rock-solid bullpen begin to show cracks of late. In recent weeks, the Yankees have lost Michael King to a fractured elbow, seen Chad Green go down with a torn ligament that required Tommy John surgery, and watched former closer Aroldis Chapman struggle badly in his return from the injured list. Even Clay Holmes, the team’s breakout closer and All-Star, has scuffled over the past two weeks after a superhuman start to the 2022 season that catapulted him into the Yankees’ closer role. Effoss will help solidify the group both in 2022 and well beyond — provided he can sustain his own impressive emergence as a viable late-inning arm.

Wesneski, 24, was the Yankees’ sixth-round pick in 2019 and has emerged as one of the organization’s top pitching prospects, ranking fourth among Yankee farmhands at Baseball America. The 6’3″, 210-pound righty reached Triple-A late in the 2021 season and has spent the entire 2022 campaign there. Through 19 starts and 89 2/3 innings so far this season, he’ notched a 3.51 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate and a 41.6% ground-ball rate.

Scouting reports on Wesneski credit him for mid-90s velocity on a pair of heaters — two-seam and four-seam — with the latter able to climb as high as 99 mph. He also works with a slider, changeup and cutter. Baseball America touts him as a potential fourth starter, one who’s not too far off from big league readiness. It’s the type of upper-level arm with decent probability to become a big league starter that the Cubs generally struggled to develop in the prior Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime. MLB.com has already updated its ranking of the Cubs’ top prospects with Wesneski slotting in No. 8, right behind fellow pitching prospects Caleb Kilian and Jordan Wicks.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported (via Twitter) that Effross had been traded to the Yankees. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted that Wesneski was going to Chicago in return.

Giants Acquire Dixon Machado From Cubs

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3:15PM: The Giants announced the trade to reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, with minor league righty Raynel Espinal going the other way. The 30-year-old made his MLB debut last year, logging just two innings for the Red Sox. The Giants signed him to a minor league deal for this year, with Espinal working as a starter in Triple-A. In 19 games, he has thrown 81 1/3 innings with a 5.29 ERA. He has an impressive 27.6% strikeout rate for the year but below-average walk and ground ball rates of 10.3% and 39%.

As expected, Thairo Estrada was placed on the concussion IL to make room for Machado on the active roster, Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com was among those to relay. To make room on the 40-man roster, righty Tobias Myers was designated for assignment. Myers began the season with the Guardians but went to the Giants in a trade earlier this month. Between the two clubs, he’s thrown 63 innings in Triple-A this year with a 6.14 ERA.

2:42PM: The Giants have officially acquired Machado, Morosi reports.  ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds the interesting detail that Machado requested a trade, likely in order to land on a team that could offer him big league playing time.

2:09PM: The Giants are looking to acquire infielder Dixon Machado from the Cubs, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that the two sides are in talks.  It isn’t known if this could be part of a larger multi-player swap, or if Machado would be the primary player involved.

It is quite possible it could be a cash-considerations type of minor move, as Machado hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2018.  The Giants are also in particular need of shortstop help, as injuries have drastically thinned out their shortstop depth chart at both the Major and minor league levels.  Brandon Crawford is on the 10-day injured list recovering from a knee injury, while Thairo Estrada was hit in the head by a pitch yesterday and is expected to be placed on the seven-day concussion IL.

After appearing in 172 games with the Tigers from 2015-18, Machado has since played with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in both 2019 and 2022, with two seasons with the KBO League’s Lotte Giants sandwiched in between.  Over those four years, Machado posted some solid averages and developed a knack for getting on base, even if his power was sporadic at best (though he did hit 17 home runs during the homer-happy 2019 Triple-A season).

This year at Triple-A Iowa, Machado has hit .312/.402/.394 with two homers and 10 steals (in 13 chances) over 391 plate appearances.  While Machado has played as a shortstop for the vast majority of his pro career, the 30-year-old has also seen some action at second and third base, making him a good fit for the Giants’ preferred model of versatile players.

White Sox Looking At David Robertson, Mychal Givens

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Cubs, Dodgers Swap Chris Martin For Zach McKinstry

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The Dodgers have made one of the first bullpen pickups of note prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline, announcing Saturday that they’ve acquired right-hander Chris Martin from the Cubs in exchange for infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry.

Chris Martin

Martin, 36, is playing the 2022 season on a one-year, $2.5MM contract he signed as a free agent this winter. His deal comes with $750K worth of  incentives, paid out in the form of a $100K bonus for reaching each of 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances, plus $125K for spending 40 and 90 days on the active roster.

Martin has already appeared in 34 games and logged 31 1/3 innings of 4.31 ERA ball this season, although fielding-independent metrics are far more bullish (3.02 FIP, 2.09 SIERA). Martin has been uncharacteristically homer-prone this year but has maintained his elite command of the strike zone. He’s punched out 30.1% of his opponents thus far and walked just four of the 133 batters he’s faced (3.1%). One of those free passes was of the intentional variety, it should be noted, and Martin has also yet to hit a batter this season.

The towering 6’8″ Martin is one of the more notable overseas success stories in recent years. After a nondescript run with the Rockies and Yankees in 2014-15, he signed with Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and tore through NPB lineups over a brilliant two-year stint there. He signed with the Rangers for the 2018 campaign and, after a pedestrian first season back in MLB has solidified himself as a quality late-inning reliever. Over the past four seasons, Martin touts a 3.46 ERA with a 26.5% strikeout rate and an impeccable 3% walk rate. Among the 431 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 big league innings in that time, Martin’s walk rate is the second-lowest in the game (narrowly trailing former teammate Josh Tomlin’s 2.9% mark).

Martin will give manager Dave Roberts some reinforcement in what’s been a generally strong but also very injury-plagued relief corps. Dodgers relievers rank sixth in the Majors with s 3.37 ERA, but they’ve lost Daniel Hudson for the season (torn ACL), aren’t clear when Blake Treinen (shoulder) will return, and also have each of Brusdar Graterol, Victor Gonzalez and Tommy Kahnle on the injured list at present.

Zach McKinstry

In return for their one-year investment in Martin, the Cubs will acquire as many as five additional seasons of control over the 27-year-old McKinstry, who made his debut with the 2020 Dodgers and has been an up-and-down utility option in L.A. since that time. A lefty hitter with experience at second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots (albeit just 18 innings in center), McKinstry has posted just a .210/.266/.403 batting line in the big leagues. That’s come in a tiny sample of 193 plate appearances, however, and he’s been outstanding during his time at the Triple-A level.

McKinstry, a former 33rd-round pick, has logged 489 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City in parts of three seasons and put together a huge .323/.401/.550. The Pacific Coast League is a known hitters’ haven, but McKinstry has nonetheless been well above league-average on a rate basis and racked up an impressive 18 home runs, 25 doubles and nine triples there. He’s fanned in just 15.7% of his plate appearances and walked at a 10.8% clip as well.

While McKinstry likely profiles more as a utility player than a starter at the big league level, there’s at least a chance he could hit enough to be a regular at second base — his best defensive position. If not, he’ll give the Cubs someone to bounce around the diamond as a valuable role player for the foreseeable future. McKinstry will be out of minor league options next season, so he should receive ample opportunity sooner than later.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that Martin had been traded to the Dodgers (Twitter link). Patrick Mooney of The Athletic first reported that McKinstry was headed to the Cubs in return (Twitter link).

Draft Signings: Rays, Giants, Cubs, Brewers, Red Sox

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With three days left for teams to sign draftees, agreements continue to trickle in. Here’s the latest notable news on that front:

  • The Rays have agreed to terms with first-round selection Xavier Isaac. Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) he’ll receive a $2.5489MM bonus that matches the pick’s slot value. The lefty-hitting high schooler is something of a sleeper target for Tampa Bay, as he’d placed just 92nd on the pre-draft ranking at Baseball America. A 6’4″ prep first baseman from North Carolina, Isaac has huge power potential, although BA suggests his hit tool has proven a bit more divisive. The Rays are clearly confident Isaac’s a good enough hitter to clear the high bar associated with the position, paying him first-round money to forego a commitment to the University of Florida.
  • The Giants are in agreement with their first-rounder, as Callis reports they’ve come to terms with Reggie Crawford on a $2.2975MM deal (Twitter link). That’s a touch below the $2.49MM slot value that accompanies the #30 overall pick. Crawford is one of the more intriguing players in the class. A first baseman for much of his early time at the University of Connecticut, the left-hander made just 14 pitching appearances between 2020-21. He ran his fastball into the upper-90s and showed a plus slider during his limited mound work, but a Tommy John surgery dashed the Huskies’ chances of getting him into the rotation this spring. Callis notes that Crawford, who has big raw power upside as a hitter, is likely to both pitch and hit during his early minor league career. Baseball America, which placed him as the #59 prospect in the class, suggests he’s more highly-regarded as a pitcher than as a first baseman.
  • The Cubs agreed to terms with second-round pick Jackson Ferris on an overslot $3.005MM bonus, Callis reports (Twitter link). The slot value for the #47 pick was around $1.67MM. It’s a typical overslot deal for a high school pitcher whom some evaluators viewed as a first-round talent. The left-hander runs his fastball into the mid-90s, and both BA and Callis praise his curveball and changeup. Baseball America expressed some concerns about his delivery and control, but he owns an impressive enough repertoire the Cubs will buy him out of a commitment to Ole Miss.
  • The Brewers have also gone well overslot in the second round, with Callis reporting (on Twitter) they’ve agreed to a $2.35MM bonus for Jacob Misiorowski. The slot value associated with the #63 selection checks in at $1.1MM. Misiorowski, a right-hander from Crowder junior college in Missouri, had been set to attend LSU next year. He checked in 67th in the class according to BA, with a fastball that sometimes clocks triple-digits and a possible plus slider. The 6’7″ hurler has questions about his control and the quality of his third pitch, but Milwaukee is clearly intrigued by his high-powered top two offerings.
  • The Red Sox also went well above slot on a mid-round player, as Callis reports they’ve agreed to a $2.5MM bonus with supplemental 2nd-rounder Roman Anthony (Twitter link). The 79th selection comes with a slot value of $820.4K. Anthony, a 6’3″ prep outfielder out of Florida, is credited by both Callis and BA with big left-handed power projection. He has some swing-and-miss concerns and BA suggests he’s likely to move to the corner outfield in pro ball. An Ole Miss commit, Anthony was BA’s #72 prospect.
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