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Cubs Sign Drew Smyly To Two-Year Deal

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Dec 24: The Cubs have officially announced the signing of Smyly. To make room on the 40-man roster, pitcher Erich Uelmen has been designated for assignment, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Dec 22, 8:01pm: The deal also allows Smyly to opt out at the end of next season, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Smyly will have to weigh a return trip to free agency against the $11MM remaining on the contract next offseason.

7:52pm: The Cubs are bringing back Drew Smyly, agreeing with the free agent starter on a two-year deal. It’s reportedly a $19MM guarantee for the Frontline client. Smyly will make successive salaries of $8MM and $8.5MM, and the contract contains at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.

Smyly returns after spending the 2022 season in Chicago. It was technically his second stint as a Cub, as he’d previously been a member of the organization in 2018. He spent that entire season rehabbing from a previous Tommy John surgery, though, and the Cubs dealt him to the Rangers over the 2018-19 offseason. After three years elsewhere, he returned to Chicago last winter on a $5.25MM guarantee.

The left-hander had a decent showing in 2022, working to a 3.47 ERA through 22 starts. He lost a month in the middle of the year to a left oblique strain but otherwise stayed healthy and absorbed 106 1/3 innings. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents but only walked 5.8% of batters faced. Smyly held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity and induced swinging strikes on a solid 12.4% of his offerings. That quality per-pitch swinging strike rate could portend a future uptick in strikeouts. Smyly has punched out 23.2% of opponents over the course of his career, although he’s seen his lowest marks in the last two years.

Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this past season, though. He absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line with two homers allowed through 101 plate appearances. Righties gave him some more trouble, taking him deep 14 times and posting a .258/.301/.448 mark in 346 trips to the dish.

The 33-year-old has had some injury troubles throughout his career, including the aforementioned Tommy John procedure. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. Smyly is not a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.

That solid rate production clearly appeals to president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office. Smyly finished the 2022 season strong and earned a multi-year deal as a result, with the guarantee narrowly topping the $17MM contract Jordan Lyles received from the Royals this week. The starting pitching market generally has been quite strong, and Smyly continues that trend with a $9.5MM average annual value to slot at the back of the Chicago rotation.

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year deal earlier in the offseason. He’ll join Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and presumably Smyly as locks for the season-opening starting staff. Kyle Hendricks figures to have a rotation job whenever he’s healthy, although his status is somewhat up in the air after his 2022 season was cut short by a shoulder issue. Players like Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and Adrian Sampson could be in the mix throughout the season as depth options. Thompson held his own over 17 starts this past season, while Wesneski and Kilian are among the better pitching prospects in the Chicago organization.

Tacking on Smyly’s $8MM salary to the 2023 payroll ledger brings the team’s projected payroll around $179MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re now around $107MM in guarantees for the ’24 campaign. Chicago isn’t quite back to the $200MM+ range they reached towards the end of the last decade, but they’re notably past the $140MM – 150MM range of the last two seasons. The deal adds $9.5MM to the club’s luxury tax ledger in both 2023-24; they’re now up to approximately $213MM in CBT spending for next season, $20MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN first reported the Cubs and Smyly were closing in on a deal. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the Cubs and Smyly had agreed to a two-year, $19MM contract and specified the financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Claim Anthony Kay, Designate Alfonso Rivas

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The Cubs announced they’ve claimed left-hander Anthony Kay off waivers from the Blue Jays. To clear a 40-man roster spot, first baseman Alfonso Rivas was designated for assignment.

Kay lost his spot on the Toronto roster last week once the team officially signed Chris Bassitt. The 27-year-old had spent three-plus years in the organization. A former first-round draftee of the Mets, Kay was acquired alongside Simeon Woods Richardson in the 2019 trade that landed now-teammate Marcus Stroman in Queens. He’d been in Triple-A at the time and debuted at the big league level with Toronto later in the season.

The UCONN product has appeared in the bigs in four straight years, though he’s yet to top 33 2/3 innings in a season. He made only one MLB appearance in 2022, bringing him to 28 for his career. Working mostly as a multi-inning reliever, Kay has a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 innings. He’s fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents but walked batters at an 11.6% clip.

Kay has pitched parts of three years at Triple-A. He’s struggled to a 6.02 ERA over that stretch, thanks in large part to an 11.5% walk rate. The 2022 campaign was a particular challenge. Limited to 14 Triple-A innings by injury, he allowed 14 runs in as many innings with 15 strikeouts and 11 free passes.

While he hasn’t found much high level success to date, Kay represents an intriguing bullpen flier for the Chicago staff. He averaged 94.5 MPH with above-average spin on his fastball during his MLB outing this past season. He’s shown the ability to miss a decent number of bats and has a notable prospect pedigree, and the Cubs will work to try to iron out his control woes. He has one minor league option year remaining, so the Cubs can bounce him between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa next season if he holds his 40-man spot.

Rivas was a fourth-round pick of the Athletics in 2018. He was dealt to Chicago for Tony Kemp a year and a half later. Rivas didn’t play in 2020 because of the minor league cancelation and has spent the past two seasons in the upper levels. He’s moved between Chicago and Iowa as a depth option. He has hit well in Triple-A, posting a .300/.398/.433 line across 377 plate appearances. Rivas flashed that offensive potential at the MLB level in 2021 but stumbled to a .235/.322/.307 mark over 287 trips to the dish this year.

The left-handed hitter has shown a patient plate approach, working plenty of walks but also striking out quite a bit. That’s largely a product of the deep counts with which he’s comfortable. Rivas doesn’t have prototypical power for a player who’s limited to first base or the corner outfield, hitting four homers and six doubles in 119 big league games.

Chicago will have a week to deal Rivas or try to run him through waivers. If another team were to put in a claim or swing a small trade, they could option him to the minors for another two seasons.

Cubs Sign Sergio Alcantara, Roenis Elias To Minor League Deals

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The Cubs have inked infielder Sergio Alcántara and reliever Roenis Elías to minor league contracts, the team informed reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Both players receive invitations to MLB Spring Training.

Alcántara is back for a second stint in Chicago. The Cubs claimed him off waivers from the Tigers in February 2021, and he spent the year in the organization. The switch-hitting infielder played in just over half their MLB contests that season, picking up a personal-high 255 plate appearances. Alcántara hit only .205/.303/.327 with five home runs. Chicago designated him for assignment last March and sold his contract to the Diamondbacks.

For the 2022 campaign, Alcántara bounced between Arizona and the Padres on waivers. The Snakes lost him in May before bringing him back in July. He played out the year in the desert but was taken off the 40-man roster at season’s end. Upon going unclaimed on waivers, he became a minor league free agent.

Over parts of three MLB seasons, Alcántara owns a .209/.281/.343 line in 502 trips to the plate. He’s gone down on strikes at an elevated 26.9% clip and posted below-average power production while generally featuring at the bottom of a lineup. The 26-year-old has only 25 games of Triple-A experience and had a fairly light .261/.340/.317 showing in just under 900 plate appearances at Double-A.

While he’s never been much of a hitter, Alcántara is a well-regarded and versatile infield defender. He has plenty of experience at second, shortstop and third base and has rated favorably at shortstop in the eyes of public defensive metrics (albeit with curiously subpar marks at the less challenging second and third base positions). Scouts consistently credited him as a plus defensive shortstop throughout his time in the minors, even if longstanding questions about his bat have pointed to a utility future. He’ll add some familiarity and upper level experience to Cubs camp and compete for a spot on the bench behind Chicago’s middle infield tandem of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Alcántara is out of minor league option years, so if he cracks the 40-man roster at any point, he’ll either have to stick in the majors or again be made available to other teams.

Elías is a veteran left-hander with parts of seven MLB campaigns under his belt. A starter for his first couple seasons with the Mariners, he has worked primarily out of the bullpen in recent years. Elías had some success with the Mariners and Nationals between 2018-19, but his career was sidetracked when his elbow blew out and he required Tommy John surgery in March 2021.

After losing that season to rehab, he returned on a minor league deal with Seattle in 2022. The 34-year-old briefly made it back to the big leagues, working seven times and allowing three runs over 7 1/3 innings. Elías averaged 93.5 MPH on his fastball in that look. He played the bulk of the season with Seattle’s top affiliate in Tacoma, working primarily as a long reliever. In 65 innings across 37 appearances (nine of which were starts), he managed a 5.12 ERA. Elías only posted a 19.8% strikeout percentage, though he limited walks to a 6.8% clip.

Outrighted off Seattle’s roster midseason, the veteran reached minor league free agency at year’s end. He’ll battle for a bullpen spot in the spring, with the Cubs lacking in left-handed depth. Brandon Hughes looks assured of one spot, but he’s the only southpaw reliever on the 40-man roster. Elías will battle for playing time with fellow non-roster invitee Eric Stout and, likely, another player or two whom the Cubs bring in this offseason.

Cubs Sign Tucker Barnhart To Two-Year Deal

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The Cubs and catcher Tucker Barnhart are in agreement on a two-year deal, though the second year is a player option. He’ll be guaranteed $6.5MM but escalators could push his earnings to $9.5MM. The deal is pending a physical. Barnhart is represented by the Ballengee Group.

The catching situation in Wrigley has been in flux for some time, despite the fact that they’ve had one of the best backstops in the league for the past seven seasons in Willson Contreras. The club leaned into a rebuild in 2021, trading away Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez and Kris Bryant, among others. Contreras stayed at that time as he still was under control for 2022, but a trade still seemed inevitable. That feeling only increased when the club signed Yan Gomes to a two-year deal going into the season.

Curiously, a deal never came together, though it was later reported that they had a trade lined up with the Astros before Houston owner Jim Crane scuttled the deal. Contreras eventually turned down a qualifying offer from the Cubs and signed with the Cardinals. That will net the Cubs an extra pick in the upcoming draft but it left them a bit thin behind the plate.

Gomes is still under contract for one more year but he’s now 35 years old and coming off a poor year at the plate. He hit .235/.260/.365 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 73, indicating he was 27% below league average. The only other catchers on the 40-man roster are P.J. Higgins, who is more of a utility player than can catch if needed, and Miguel Amaya, who has yet to reach Triple-A. Given those options, catcher was a natural target for the Cubs, who were also connected to Christian Vázquez, Omar Narváez, Curt Casali and Roberto Perez at times this offseason.

Barnhart, 32 next month, should provide the Cubs with a fairly stable profile. He’s rarely been exceptional or awful, on either side of the ball. He’s hit .245/.320/.360 in his career for a wRC+ of 80. That indicates he’s been 20% below league average overall, but catchers generally are less potent at the plate than their peers. The league average catcher posted a wRC+ of 89 in 2022. Barnhart has never posted a wRC+ higher than 90 but he’s also never finished below 63, apart from his brief debut in 2014. That 63, however, was just this past season with Detroit, when he batted .221/.287/.267.

On the glove side, Barnhart has 12 DRS for his career. FanGraphs has graded his framing as poor on the whole, but it bottomed out in 2018 and was above-average in next three seasons before dipping just below in 2022. Although defensive metrics don’t paint him as a lights-out defender, Barnhart has won a pair of Gold Gloves, including in 2017 when he nabbed a league-leading 44% of runners who attempted to swipe a base on his watch. He also received interest from the Reds, Pirates and Astros this offseason but will join the Cubs, returning the National Central where he spent many years as a Red.

The Cubs have been fairly aggressive this winter, signing Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, Jameson Taillon, Brad Boxberger and now Barnhart. That brings the club’s payroll up to $172MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $206MM. That payroll is already a sizeable increase over last year’s $143MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though they’ve been up as high as $203MM in the past. It’s unknown how much more the club plans on spending, but it’s possible there’s more there to work with. They’re also more than $20MM shy of the luxury tax threshold, which is $233MM.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic first reported that the Cubs and Barnhart were closing in on a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that an agreement was in place. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported the one-year plus a player option framework. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the financials.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Sign Dansby Swanson

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December 21: The Cubs have officially announced the signing. Robert Murray of FanSided provides a detailed breakdown of Swanson’s salaries. He will get a $7MM signing bonus and a $13MM salary in 2023, followed by $25MM in 2024. He will then get a bump to $27MM for three straight years, followed by $26MM in 2028 and $25MM in 2029.

December 17: The Cubs have landed one of the offseason’s biggest free agents, as the team has agreed to a deal with shortstop Dansby Swanson.  NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan (via Twitter) was first to report that the two sides were “very close” to finalizing a deal, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel tweeted later that the agreement had been reached.  The contract is a seven-year, $177MM deal that includes a full no-trade clause, according to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports (Twitter link).  Swanson is represented by Excel Sports Management.

It is the second-biggest free agent deal in Cubs history, second only to Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM pact from the 2015-16 offseason.  After the Cubs had spent the last couple of seasons cutting payroll and largely moving into rebuild mode, it is safe to say that the franchise is firmly planning to compete again, given the signings of Swanson, Jameson Taillon, and Cody Bellinger this offseason, as well as the Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman deals last winter.

Rumors have swirled since the summer that the Cubs were planning to sign one of the “big four” shortstops of the 2022-23 offseason — Swanson, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, or Xander Bogaerts.  Some reports even suggested that Chicago could sign two of the shortstops, with an eye towards moving one player to another position (a la the Rangers inking both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien last winter).  Initial reports indicated that Correa and Bogaerts were the Cubs’ top options of the group, but during the Winter Meetings, Swanson began to emerge as “perhaps their most realistic target at shortstop,” in the words of The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

As it turned out, all of the big four shortstops ended up switching teams, with Swanson the last one to land his next contract.  Turner signed with the Phillies, Bogaerts with the Padres, Correa with the Giants, and now Swanson will head to Wrigleyville to join the third different organization of his pro career.  Drafted first overall by the Diamondbacks in 2015, Swanson’s Arizona was limited to 22 A-ball games, as he was dealt to the Braves that offseason as part of a blockbuster five-player swap.

The trade became infamous for Arizona fans, as Shelby Miller (the primary piece headed to the D’Backs) immediately struggled with his new team, while Georgia-born Swanson blossomed with his hometown Braves.  Success wasn’t immediate for Swanson, who hit only .243/.314/.369 over his first 1229 Major League plate appearances from 2016-18.  However, he gradually became more productive at the plate, culminating in a 2022 season that saw him hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 homers over 696 PA, translating to a 116 wRC+.

Swanson also hit 27 homers in 2021, bringing some solid power from the shortstop position.  It could be that Swanson might still be entering his prime years as a hitter as he enters his age-29 season, making him an even more intriguing addition as an all-around player.  Swanson is also an excellent baserunner and has a very strong defensive resume that includes a Gold Glove last season.  The Outs Above Average metric grades Swanson with a +38 total over the last five seasons, and while his Defensive Runs Saved (+18) and UZR/150 (+0.4) numbers are a little more inconsistent, Swanson is certainly an above-average fielder at a key defensive position.

The Cubs already had a good defensive shortstop in Nico Hoerner, of course, and yet Hoerner’s versatility allowed Chicago to explore multiple options around the diamond.  With Swanson now taking over at shortstop and Bellinger also signed as primarily the everyday center fielder, it looks like Hoerner will be spending most of his time at second base.  Between Hoerner and Swanson, the Cubs now have one of the very best defensive middle infields in baseball, which will be particularly important in 2023 given the new rules limiting defensive shifts.

Between Swanson, Bellinger, Taillon, and Brad Boxberger, Chicago has spent a little over $265MM on guaranteed free agent deals this offseason.  Even with a projected $181.1MM in payroll for 2023 and a luxury tax number (which is based on average annual values) of a little over $203.1MM, it seems possible that the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might not be done yet.

The Cubs’ Opening Day payroll in 2019 cracked the $203MM mark, so Hoyer might have at least another $22MM to spend if that past record total does represent ownership’s upper limit.  Since the Cubs crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2016, 2019, and 2020, it could be that ownership might even green-light more spending at least up to the current $233MM tax line.  “Intelligent spending” has been one of Hoyer’s chief descriptions of the Cubs’ spending strategies over the last two winters, and club chairman Tom Ricketts said at the start of the offseason that the front office would have “the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”

Swanson’s signing marks the first time in two offseasons that the Cubs signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  This means Chicago will have to give up $500K in international spending money, and lose its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft.  While losing a draft pick (currently 49th overall) is no small matter, the Cubs will also get a bonus pick back since Willson Contreras rejected his QO and signed with the Cardinals.  This will net Chicago a compensatory pick that will fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, so roughly 70th overall.

Atlanta’s compensatory pick will also fall right alongside Chicago’s pick in the 70th-overall range.  That draft selection will represent the last piece of Swanson’s tenure with the Braves, an overall very successful run highlighted by the team’s 2021 World Series championship.  Since the Braves captured that title, the club has said goodbye to both Swanson and Freddie Freeman in free agency — a scenario that would’ve been unlikely 13 months ago, given how both seemed like cornerstone pieces.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has spent much of that time building a new foundation, however.  The Braves have been very aggressive in locking up several young players to contract extensions, and also swung separate trades with the Athletics to bring in two more star players in Matt Olson (essentially Freeman’s replacement at first base) and new catcher Sean Murphy.  This left less focus on Swanson, as Atlanta reportedly made him an offer in the neighborhood of six years and $100MM before the offseason began, and ever since, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote that the two sides “haven’t had any legit negotiations.”

The Braves reportedly had reservations about committing the kind of high average-annual value it would’ve taken to land Swanson, as the $25.286 AAV on his Cubs deal would’ve been easily the highest on Atlanta’s payroll (Austin Riley’s $21.2MM is the current leader).  While time will tell if the Braves made the right decision in moving on from Swanson, it’s hard to accuse the club of being tight-fisted, given how they’re already on pace for a team-record $196.5MM payroll and are close to the luxury tax threshold for the first time.

Atlanta might also feel like it has another young star ready to take the reins at shortstop, as Vaughn Grissom (who played his first 41 MLB games in 2022) now looks like the top choice at the position.  Orlando Arcia is on hand as a veteran backup and you can never rule Anthopoulos out from another headline-grabbing move for another shortstop, but it appears as though the Braves are hoping Grissom can become the latest homegrown prospect to make an immediate impact at the big league level.  Grissom already hit .291/.353/.440 in his first 156 career plate appearances.

Looking at both the shortstop market and the greater free agent market, Swanson is the latest player to cash in during what has been something of a spending free-for-all this winter.  MLBTR projected Swanson for a seven-year, $154MM deal, so that prediction at least came closer to expectations than Bogaerts’ 11-year/$280MM deal with San Diego, Correa’s 13-year/$350MM pact with San Francisco, or even the 11 years and $300MM Turner got from the Phillies.  While it was generally expected that Swanson would receive the smallest contract (relatively speaking) of the “big four” shortstops, the average annual values of the four players ended up all falling within a $2MM range, as the longer-term deals signed by Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner helped lessen the AAV and subsequent luxury tax hit.

Elvis Andrus and Jose Iglesias won’t command anywhere near those types of numbers, but the two veteran infielders are now the best shortstop options remaining on the open market.  For other teams (like the Red Sox, Twins, Dodgers, and perhaps the Diamondbacks and Angels) that were looking for shortstop help and were at least on the periphery of the markets of the “big four,” Andrus or Iglesias might get some looks, or any needy teams might explore the trade market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Orioles Unlikely To Sign Trey Mancini

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As free agents are coming off the board, former Oriole Trey Mancini is one of the few players left on the open market that’s a viable everyday contributor. However, it doesn’t seem like a return to Baltimore is in the cards, according to report from Dan Connolly of The Athletic. He says that the club made some initial contact with him but that little progress was made.

Mancini has been with the Orioles for much of his career thus far, having been drafted by them in 2013 and sticking with the club until a deadline trade to the Astros in 2022. He debuted in 2016 but cemented himself as an everyday player at a time when the club’s fans had little to get excited about. From 2017 to 2021, the Orioles finished last in the American League East in all four full seasons and finished fourth in the shortened 2020 campaign. But in the first three of those years, Mancini hit at least 24 home runs and hit a combined .275/.334/.480 for a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% better than league average over that stretch.

A battle with colon cancer wiped out his 2020 season, but Mancini provided a feel-good story in 2021, returning to play 147 games and hit another 21 home runs. He finished that season with a batting line of .255/.326/.432, 105 wRC+. He got out to a strong start in 2022, hitting .268/.347/.404 for a wRC+ of 116. He was then flipped to the Astros at the deadline and wilted down the stretch. He hit just .176/.258/.364 as an Astro in the regular season, and followed that up with a dreary .048/.125/.048 line over 24 postseason plate appearances. That wasn’t the best way for Mancini to enter free agency for the first time, but his larger track record is still solid. He has a career wRC+ of 111 and the ability to play above-average first base defense, in addition to the occasional trip to an outfield corner.

Though many fans in Baltimore would surely be excited by Mancini’s return, there are reasons for the club to not have too much interest. They already have a right-handed hitting first baseman in Ryan Mountcastle, who still is under club control for another four years. The roster is also crowded elsewhere, which likely means the club wants to keep the designated hitter slot open to be used based on how other situations play out. Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, Gunnar Henderson, Ramón Urías and Adam Frazier are lined up to handle the infield positions in some combination, with Lewin Díaz and Terrin Vavra candidates for bench jobs. They also have infield prospects on the way in the form of Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby. In the outfield, they have Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Kyle Stowers, with prospect Colton Cowser likely to debut at some point in 2023. Given all of those young options, it would be a bit tough to slot Mancini into the picture without blocking some of their up-and-coming players.

If he’s not back to Baltimore, then Mancini will have to look for his next opportunity elsewhere. He was connected to the Cubs about two weeks ago, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reiterating that connection earlier today. For the Cubs or any other club looking for first base upgrades, José Abreu, Josh Bell and Anthony Rizzo are off the board, but Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Luke Voit and others are still available.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

Cubs Sign Jameson Taillon

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Dec. 19: The Cubs have formally announced their four-year deal with Taillon. They now have 39 players on their 40-man roster, though that doesn’t yet include Dansby Swanson, who agreed to a seven-year deal with the Cubs over the weekend.

Dec. 7: The Cubs have agreed to a four-year, $68MM deal with right-handed starter Jameson Taillon, according to Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan of ESPN. Taillon is represented by Excel Sports Management. Taillon was one of the top remaining options on the starting pitching market.

Carlos Rodón is the lone ace who’s still unsigned, while players like Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Noah Syndergaard join Taillon in the next tier. The Cubs have generally been expected to dip into free agency to address their rotation, and it appears they’ll indeed do so to snag a mid-rotation arm.

Once finalized, the deal will send Taillon back to the NL Central. He’s spent much of his career there, as he entered the professional ranks back in 2010 as the 2nd overall pick of the Pirates. He appeared among Baseball America’s top 30 overall prospects in each of the next five years, with his progression up the minor league ranks delayed by Tommy John surgery. By 2016, he got to the big leagues, breaking in with 18 starts of 3.38 ERA ball.

That kicked off a stretch of a few solid seasons in black and gold. Taillon combined for 57 starts over the next two years, posting a 3.71 ERA. He missed some time in 2017 battling testicular cancer but beat the disease quickly, remarkably missing only around one month. Taillon avoided the injured list through the end of the 2018 campaign thereafter, but his elbow blew out seven starts into the 2019 season. He underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career that August, spending all of the following season rehabbing.

It proved an unwelcome end to his time in Pittsburgh, as the rebuilding Bucs flipped him to the Yankees over the 2020-21 offseason. New York surrendered four young players, including Roansy Contreras, to land Taillon. It was a bit of a gamble on him returning to health after the surgery, but he indeed came back as his previous mid-rotation self. Taillon’s two seasons in the Bronx were strikingly similar to his years in Pittsburgh.

Over his two-year run in pinstripes, he worked to a 4.08 ERA across 321 2/3 innings. The Texas native posted a 21.9% strikeout rate that’s right around league average and walked fewer than 6% of his opponents. His ground-ball and hard contact rates allowed were middle-of-the-pack, but he pounded the strike zone and handled hitters from both sides of the dish reasonably well. His stuff also returned to just under pre-surgery levels. Taillon’s fastball has checked in right around 94 MPH in each of the past two seasons, while he relies on a mid-80s slider and a low-80s curveball as his secondary pitches.

Taillon turned 31 last month, so he should still have a few prime seasons ahead of him. There’s certainly risk in investing in a pitcher with two Tommy John surgeries on his medical chart, but he’s avoided any arm issues the past two years. His only IL stint was a brief absence for a calf issue late in the ’21 campaign.

The Cubs find themselves in a middle ground between retooling and full-fledged contention. They’re coming off a second straight losing season, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has suggested the front office planned to be active in bolstering the MLB roster. To that end, they’ve already agreed to terms with former MVP Cody Bellinger on a bounceback deal to play center field, and it appears Taillon will follow.

Starting pitching was one of the bigger questions on the roster. Chicago signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year guarantee last offseason. He’ll be in the starting five, although he can opt out at the end of next year. Kyle Hendricks is under contract for another season and would have a rotation spot if healthy, but he’s rehabbing from a capsule tear in his throwing shoulder. Justin Steele earned a rotation spot with a solid rookie season. The back end is completely up in the air, with players like Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and rookies Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Caleb Kilian all jockeying for work. Adding a stable mid-rotation pitcher like Taillon makes plenty of sense for a team without many certain innings.

That’s particularly true since signing Taillon won’t cost the Cubs any draft choices. New York somewhat curiously opted not to issue him a $19.65MM qualifying offer at the end of the season, allowing him to hit the market unencumbered.

MLBTR predicted a four-year, $56MM contract entering the offseason, so Taillon’s deal comes in a bit above that. The rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated thus far. Zach Eflin and Tyler Anderson both landed three-year deals in the $40MM range, while Taijuan Walker agreed to terms with the Phillies on a surprising four-year, $72MM guarantee earlier this evening.

Ken Rosenthal and Stephen Nesbitt of The Athletic were first to report that the Cubs were making a strong push for Taillon (link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that the sides were nearing an agreement. Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan of ESPN announced the deal was agreed to and added financial terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On The Cubs’ Catching Targets: Casali, Barnhart, Pérez

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The Chicago Cubs are looking for a “defense-first catcher,” reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, with Mooney linking the team to free agents Curt Casali, Tucker Barnhart, and Roberto Perez. Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation has also recently connected the club to Barnhart in a platoon role with incumbent Yan Gomes.

The Cubs currently only have two catchers on their 40-man roster, prospect Miguel Amaya, who reached Double-A Tennessee in 2022 and is projected to debut during the 2023 season, and 11-year veteran Gomes. Gomes, who signed a two-year, $13MM deal during the 2021 offseason, with a $6MM player option for the 2024 season, hit .235/.260/.365 in a complementary role to All-Star Willson Contreras during his first season in Chicago. P.J. Higgins also saw time behind the dish during the 2022 season, hitting .229/.310/.383 in 229 plate appearances, and has the ability to plan all around the infield.

Nevertheless, the recent additions of Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Brad Boxberger, and Cody Bellinger, along with their reported re-signing of Drew Smyly, signal an intent to compete in 2023 after finishing third in their division last season. With the free agent catcher market rapidly shrinking, Casali, Barnhart, and Perez profile as veteran regulars that won’t command long-term contracts and delay Amaya’s promotion.

Casali was limited to only 57 games during the 2022 season, spending time on the injured list with a concussion and right oblique strain. Over 176 plate appearances, the 34-year-old hit a weak .203/.318/.331 with a high 28.4% strikeout rate but a strong 13.6% walk rate. Casali is a career .223/.316/.392 hitter over parts of nine seasons and is credited with 16 defensive runs saved since 2014, in addition to throwing out 32% of runners and drawing positive marks for his framing ability.

Barnhart joined the Tigers via trade after the 2021 season and struggled to a .221/.287/.267 slash line with a 24% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in 2022. It’s a sharp drop off from his career numbers of .245/.320/.360, and his strong 2017 showing (.270/.347/.403) is slowly becoming a distant memory. Like Casali, Barnhart is typically viewed positively for his defensive ability, earning a total of 12 DRS over nine seasons, despite being credited -8 DRS during the 2022 season, while throwing out 32% of runners. Barnhart also ranks highly for his framing ability.

Perez suffered a left hamstring strain in early May and was forced to undergo season-ending surgery later in the month. It marks the second consecutive injury-ravaged year for Perez, who was limited to only 44 games with Cleveland during the 2021 season due to a pair of IL stints (a fractured right finger and shoulder inflammation). Like Casali and Barnhart, Perez is a glove-first catcher, with a meager career slash line of .207/.298/.360, but he has accumulated a whopping 79 DRS since 2014 while throwing out 39% of would-be runners and possesses a highly regarded framing ability.

The Cubs’ will likely struggle to fill Contreras’s offensive production from the catching position, but the franchise will hope that recent additions of Swanson and Bellinger, as well as prospects Brennen Davis and Matt Mervis settling in at the Major League level, will help fill the All-Star size hole behind the dish at Wrigley Field.

Cubs, Drew Smyly Close To A Deal

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The Cubs and starter Drew Smyly are closing in on a deal for the 2023 season, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Reports emerged in early October that the two parties were involved in extension talks, but nothing came of those discussions before Smyly opted out of his side of a mutual option in November.

Smyly initially joined the Cubs after the 2021 season on a one-year, $4.25MM contract with a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual contract for the 2023 season, which Smyly declined, and $2.5MM in potential incentives. He would go on to make 22 starts, pitching to a 3.47 ERA in 106 1/3 innings with a slightly below-average 2o.4% strikeout rate but paired with a low 5.8% walk rate. Interestingly, despite ranking poorly in fastball velocity (20th percentile), fastball spin (24th percentile), and curve spin (8th percentile), Smyly posted a chase rate in the 77th percentile and limited hard hits (69th percentile).

Since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017, Smyly has become a mercenary swingman, spending the 2019 season with the Rangers, joining the Brewers on a minor league deal in 2019 before finishing the season with the Phillies, spending the shortened 2020 year with the Giants, winning a World Series ring with the Braves during the 2021 season, and then joining the Cubs last winter. Over these four years, Smyly has made 71 starts (83 appearances) and pitched to a 4.65 ERA in 373 1/3 regular-season innings with a 22.9% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.

The nine-year veteran will rejoin a rotation that includes Marcus Stroman, recent signee Jameson Taillon, and Justin Steele. Kyle Hendricks will likely have a spot on manager David Ross’s staff, but the 30-year-old had yet to begin a throwing program as of late October after suffering a mid-season capsular tear.

The financial terms of the agreement are not yet clear. The Cubs presently have around $181MM in estimated commitments for 2023, not including Smyly, per Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger is around $203MM, leaving the possibility of adding with the base tax threshold set at $233MM.

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