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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners

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Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.

Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.

Here are the full list of winners:

American League

Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)

Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)

First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)

Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)

Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)

Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)

Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)

Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)

Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection

Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)

National League

Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win

Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)

First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)

Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)

Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win

Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)

Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection

Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection

Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)

Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection

Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection

Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)

Kyle Hendricks Hasn’t Started Throwing; Still On Track For Spring Training

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Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has still not begun throwing in his recovery from a mid-season capsular tear in his shoulder, per Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports. While the delay in his recovery is enough to cause some concern, Wittenmyer notes that there’s not yet reason to think that Hendricks won’t be ready for spring training. Hendricks was originally due to resume playing catch at the end of the season, but the plan is now to start that in November.

Hendricks posted a 4.80 ERA across 16 starts this season before going down with injury. Hendricks’ HardHit% soared in 2022, standing at 38.8%, well above his second highest mark of 33%, which occurred last season. As one would expect, that translated into a higher home run rate and Hendricks gave up almost one per start this season. It’s the second straight season that’s been the case, as Hendricks suffered from a lift in home runs on the way to a 4.77 ERA across 32 starts in 2021. Prior to that, Hendricks was an incredibly reliable arm for the Cubs, regularly hitting 30 starts and posting ERAs in the mid-to-lower threes.

While Hendricks has experienced some decline in recent years, he’s still a much-needed workhorse for the Cubs rotation. They’ll have veteran Marcus Stroman back next year as well as the impressive Justin Steele. Beyond that, Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson and Hayden Wesneski all showed varying degrees of promise to suggest they’ll feature in the rotation next season, but none can be reasonably pencilled in to make 30 starts. Steele, too, is no sure thing workload-wise having pitched a career high 119 innings in 2022, though the promise he showed in pitching to a 3.18 ERA with the peripherals to match suggest the Cubs will certainly be looking to get big innings out of him.

The uncertainty over Hendricks’ immediate future could provide further motivation for the Cubs to be active in the starting pitcher market this winter. A competitive Cubs team in 2023 probably already needed an arm or two in the rotation, and if Hendricks’ recovery is set back any further that need will only increase. Hendricks is owed $14MM in 2023, and has a $16MM team option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout.

Cubs Injury Notes: Canario, Davis, Amaya

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Cubs outfield prospect Alexander Canario suffered a badly fractured ankle and a dislocated shoulder during a Dominican Winter League game on Thursday, according to multiple sources (including reporter Arturo Bisono).  While trying to beat out a grounder, Canario awkwardly stepped on the bag and then fell to the ground in obvious pain.

It would seem like Canario will face a substantial amount of recovery time, though no timeline has yet been announced by the Cubs.  This is the second notable shoulder injury of Canario’s short career, as he also had surgery to fix a torn labrum in November 2020.  Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and then the recovery from his surgery, it isn’t surprising that Canario had modest numbers in 2021, playing with both the Giants’ A-ball affiliate and the Cubs’ high-A team.

Acquired from San Francisco as part of the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, the 22-year-old Canario hit .252/.343/.556 with 37 homers and 23 steals (from 26 chances) over 534 combined plate appearances at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels last season.  This excellent performance sent Canario within the top 10 of Chicago prospects, as per both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.  It also put Canario on the radar of several rival teams scouting the Cubs as possible trade partners, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, but Canario’s status as a trade chip or as a possible difference-maker in Wrigleyville is now on hold until his recovers.

Brennen Davis has also been sidelined by injury, as lower back tightness limited him to just five games in the Arizona Fall League before the Cubs shut him down.  Sharma writes that the club hadn’t determined the nature of this new injury, but it doesn’t seem similar to the problem (a vascular formation on his sciatic nerve) that required Davis to undergo back surgery in June.

A consensus pick as Chicago’s second-best prospect and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, Davis has hit .255/.363/.444 over 906 professional PA since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft.  Multiple injuries have slowed Davis’ progress, as beyond his back surgery, Davis has also had to recover from a concussion and broken nose (after being hit by a pitch during Spring Training), as well as finger injuries in 2019.

Despite all these setbacks, Davis was still moving up the minor league ladder and playing well, before his back problems led to a down year in 2022 and a probable promotion to the majors.  Sharma notes that the Cubs are still expected to place Davis on the 40-man roster this winter, since even with the back concerns, he would surely be taken in the Rule 5 Draft.

Miguel Amaya was placed on the 40-man back in November 2019, yet the catching prospect has barely played in the following three years.  Beyond the canceled 2020 minors season, Amaya was limited to 23 games in 2021 and then 40 games in 2022 due largely to a forearm strain that resulted in Tommy John surgery.  Once Amaya made it back this season, he was limited to DH duty, and then his path back to catching was halted when he suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot in mid-September.

“My offseason focus is to be the best version of me for 2023, and whatever happens, happens,” Amaya told Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Sun-Times.  “I just want to be healthy to show everyone who Miguel Amaya is and just have fun and play the baseball I know.”

Amaya has been limited to shoulder and elbow exercises while his foot heals, and while he hasn’t much recent contact with Willson Contreras, Amaya also cited the veteran catcher as an important mentor during his development.  In theory, Amaya might’ve already established himself as Contreras’ replacement if healthy, as Contreras is headed into free agency this winter.  A top-100 prospect prior to his Tommy John surgery, Amaya might be a factor for the big league roster later in 2023, though he has only 51 games at the Double-A level and nothing in Triple-A.

Cubs Promote Dustin Kelly To Hitting Coach

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The Cubs are making a change at hitting coach, as Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Greg Brown will not be returning to that role next year, though he was offered a different role within the organization. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune adds that minor league hitting coordinator Dustin Kelly has been promoted to take Brown’s place and that Brown will leave the Cubs to pursue other opportunities.

The job has been remarkably volatile in recent years, with Mooney pointing out that the Cubs have employed 14 different hitting coaches since 2012. The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years and have many young and developing hitters on the roster, meaning that they will be looking to help those youngsters maximize their potential while also providing some much-needed stability and continuity as they aim to be more competitive in the years to come.

Kelly has been in the organization for almost two years now and had spent the previous three years working with the minor leaguers of the Dodgers. In the past couple of seasons, Kelly has surely developed relationships with the young players that have been moving through the system. Whether those players are already in the majors or still working their way there, the Cubs are evidently impressed with the work he’s done and have quickly bumped him up to the show without any signs of having conducted a search of external candidates.

13 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the World Series kicking off on Friday, we’re only a couple weeks from the opening of the offseason. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.

Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

In recent weeks, we’ve provided periodic updates on players qualifying for minor league free agency. Here are the latest, courtesy of the MiLB.com transactions tracker.

Pitchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Quick Hits: Reds, Wheeler, Morel, Rays Ballpark

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The Reds had a longstanding interest in Zack Wheeler as both a trade target and then when the righty entered free agency in the 2019-20 offseason.  Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently revisited that free agent pursuit, which ended when the Phillies signed Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM contract.  According to Nightengale, the Reds were also willing to spend beyond $100MM to sign Wheeler, but they may have been undone by geography more than just dollars.  Wheeler prioritized staying on the East Coast and closer to his wife’s home state of New Jersey, giving the Phils the edge over both the Reds and the White Sox (who reportedly offered more than $118MM).

Needless to say, signing Wheeler would’ve changed the entire trajectory of recent Reds history, not to mention the Phillies’ last three seasons and their current berth in the 2022 World Series.  As Nightengale notes, the Reds went on to sign Nick Castellanos (for $64MM over four years) and Shogo Akiyama ($21MM over three years) after Wheeler left the market, and it isn’t known if either of those deals could’ve or would’ve still happened if Cincinnati had made its big investment in Wheeler’s contract.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Christopher Morel had a solid rookie season, hitting .235/.308/.433 with 16 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Cubs.  Beyond his contributions at the plate, Morel also started games as a second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, center fielder, and left fielder.  ‘There’s not many guys in the big leagues that can do what he does, the consistency he’s shown at times in each position,’’ Cubs assistant coach Jonathan Mota told Maddie Lee of the Chicago-Sun Times.  A super-utility role would make Morel a valuable commodity on the roster, and both Morel and the Cubs seem committed to continuing his prep work at multiple positions going forward.
  • Tampa-area businessman Darryl Shaw recently bought 25 acres of waterfront land in the Ybor City neighborhood, and as John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times explains, Shaw tried in the past to work with the Rays in other ventures in the Ybor area.  Shaw’s new land purchase might therefore revive the idea of a new Rays ballpark in downtown Tampa, though Romano notes that this could be a long shot for a variety of reasons, including a lack of committed civic funding and the Rays’ increased interest in a new park (and accompanying “baseball village” infrastructure) built on the grounds of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.  Any number of proposals involving Tampa, St. Pete, and even Montreal have been floated over the years as the Rays look for a new home, and it remains to be seen if any answer can be found before the club’s lease at the Trop expires after the 2027 season.  Rays team president Matt Silverman said that “city and county officials on both sides of the bay seem to appreciate the value of baseball and are focused on finding a solution.  The discussions are going on simultaneously in a parallel, non-competitive, non-adversarial way.  Everyone understands time is of the essence.”

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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In conjunction with this post, Tim Dierkes held a Cubs-centric live chat on 10-18-22.  Read the transcript here.

The time has come for the Cubs to add significant talent, but are they willing to make long-term commitments?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marcus Stroman, SP: $46MM through 2024.  Can opt out of remaining one year and $21MM after 2023 season
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $22MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $15.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Seiya Suzuki, RF: $73MM through 2026
  • Yan Gomes, C: $7MM through 2023.  Includes $6MM club option for 2024
  • David Bote, 3B: $10.5MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for 2026

Total 2023 commitments: $92.5MM
Total future commitments: $181.5MM

Option Decisions

  • Drew Smyly, SP: $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The 2022 Cubs played to their low preseason expectations.  FanGraphs pegged them for 75 wins, and they won 74.  It was an assortment of players that seemed unlikely to contend, but could maybe hang on the fringes of playoff contention.

As it turned out, the Cubs posted an abysmal 35-57 first half and were out of contention very quickly, but salvaged their record and created optimism in some quarters with a 39-31 second half.  How much of that success is sustainable, and who will president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer pursue this winter to turn this team into a contender?

The rotation posted a 2.89 ERA in the second half, which ranked third in baseball.  This fact was touted by owner Tom Ricketts in his annual letter to fans, so it’s worth a deeper look.  One stat that jumps out is the rotation’s MLB-best 80.1% left-on-base percentage in the second half.  Coupled with a below-average strikeout rate, there’s little indication the Cubs’ starting pitchers are actually skilled at stranding baserunners.

Eight Cubs pitchers made four or more starts in the second half.  Two of them, Drew Smyly and Wade Miley, are headed toward free agency.  The remaining six: Marcus Stroman, Adrian Sampson, Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and Keegan Thompson.

Stroman dealt with COVID-19 and shoulder inflammation early this year, but was excellent in 16 starts to close out his season.  While the veteran serves as the Cubs’ nominal ace heading into his age-32 campaign, he’s also likely to opt out of the remaining $21MM on his contract with a solid 2023.  Stroman is a good player to have for ’23, but he’ll essentially be in a contract year and thus isn’t a long-term piece.

As for Smyly, the Cubs are expected to talk to his agent this month about a new contract, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.  If the Cubs were to sign Smyly to a two-year deal, it’d cover his age 34-35 seasons.  Smyly’s 22 starts this year went about as well as could be expected, and the temptation to lock in a veteran for next year is understandable.  Smyly did miss all of June with an oblique strain, and battled shoulder fatigue in the season’s final two weeks.  This year’s 106 1/3 innings is about all a team can expect from him.  Even cherry-picking to leave out April and September, Smyly still averaged fewer than five innings per start.  He had a below-average strikeout rate, too, instead succeeding based on a low walk rate and weak contact.  There may be some recency bias at play here in the expectation that Smyly’s modest 2022 success will continue.

The Cubs did turn up a pair of interesting, under-30 potential long-term rotation pieces in the second half: Justin Steele and Hayden Wesneski.  Steele, a 27-year-old southpaw, closed out his season with a run of 14 starts featured a sparkling 2.05 ERA and solid 16 K-BB%.  For a two-month span, Steele looked, at least, like one of the 20 best pitchers in the game.  He missed all of September due to a back injury, so the next step in his development will be to increase his innings beyond this year’s 119.

Wesneski, 25 in December, came via a shrewd one-for-one trade with the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross.  Wesneski posted an excellent 2.18 ERA in 33 innings with the peripherals to match, but it was only 33 innings and his 5.3% walk rate in the Majors is likely unsustainable.

At present the Cubs can really only write Stroman and Steele into their 2023 rotation.  World Series hero Kyle Hendricks has at least one year left on his contract, but his season ended in July due to a capsular tear in his right shoulder.  The Cubs can hope for a return to form, but can’t count on Hendricks.  Of the other rotation candidates, Sampson and Assad had the best results, combining for a 3.19 ERA in 27 starts.  Neither had the peripheral stats to back up an ERA below 4.50.  The bottom line is that a competitive 2023 team will need to add at least two starting pitchers this winter.  Even if one of them is Smyly, who else might the Cubs consider?

Asked about adding a top of the rotation starter – which the Cubs obviously need – Hoyer replied, “I think it’s important that we continue to add quality innings.  We’re actively looking for quality innings, pitchers we feel like we can work with and potentially make better.”  To me, this is mostly classic GM-speak that doesn’t reveal much about offseason plans, though Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports feels Hoyer’s comment suggests sights set somewhere below one of the best pitchers on the free agent market, Carlos Rodon.

I believe the Cubs are committed to avoiding risky contracts, and wouldn’t take the plunge on a starter like Rodon unless, like Stroman, he could somehow be landed on a three-year deal.  While I agree with the speculation that Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are unlikely to join the 2023 Cubs, I think the market is rife with opportunities for good pitchers who can be had with commitments of three or fewer years.  And keep in mind, the three-year limitation is only my speculation.

It’s easy to see the Cubs focusing some interest on older but recently-effective starters who shouldn’t require excessive years: Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jameson Taillon are a few who come to mind.  It’s also easy to see Hoyer turning back to Japan for Kodai Senga, who turns 30 in January and just posted a 1.89 ERA in 148 innings for the Softbank Hawks.  A four-year deal for Senga at an AAV below that of the typical MLB-experienced free agent ace could be possible.  Zach Eflin could be another name to watch, as the soon-to-be free agent righty doesn’t turn 29 until April.  The Cubs could pursue Shane Bieber or Pablo Lopez via trade, and that market always includes a few surprises every winter.  If Shohei Ohtani is made available, the Cubs would have to at least gauge the asking price and consider converting some of their prospect capital into the superstar they’re lacking.

Turning to the bullpen, the Cubs were relying on Brandon Hughes, Manny Rodriguez, Mark Leiter Jr., Adbert Alzolay, and Keegan Thompson in high leverage situations in the season’s final month.  That was necessitated by the club’s veteran bullpen purge, which saw David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin, and Effross sent packing in trades.  It seems likely Hoyer will continue deploying his strategy of one-year deals for veteran free agent relievers, with the specific names impossible to predict.

On the position player side, the Cubs seem content with Happ and Suzuki at the corners again next year.  While neither fit the profile as a middle of the order masher, both outfielders posted offensive numbers at least 16% better than league average.  At 3.5 WAR, Happ put together the best season of his career in 2022, and the Cubs will at least explore an extension.  My guess is that Happ won’t be retained long-term, with prospects Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario near MLB-ready.

The Cubs gave most of their center field reps to Christopher Morel and Rafael Ortega in 2022.  While Morel had a solid rookie season overall, there’s a good chance the Cubs will look outside the organization for short-term help in center.  A one-year deal for Cody Bellinger (who’s likely to be non-tendered by the Dodgers) could be interesting, or the Cubs could take a more defense-minded approach with Kevin Kiermaier.  Long-term, the Cubs will likely keep center field open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who finished 2022 at High-A.

The Cubs surprisingly held on to catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline this year, presumably because they felt the offers were worse than the draft pick they would receive if he turns down a qualifying offer.  That pick would be between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next summer’s draft.  Contreras, 31 in May, will likely seek a four or five-year deal in free agency, and the Cubs have not seemed interested in hammering something out to retain their longtime backstop.

A Contreras departure would leave the Cubs reliant on Yan Gomes and P.J. Higgins behind the plate.  Prospect Miguel Amaya is recovering from injuries and has yet to play above Double-A, but could be a factor for the Cubs in the second half.  The free agent market features a typical array of veteran catchers, and there’s a decent chance the Cubs will sign one to bolster their depth.

Alfonso Rivas, 26, led the Cubs in defensive innings at first base.  He managed just an 82 wRC+ in 287 plate appearances.  The Cubs released Frank Schwindel in September, and simply don’t have much at the position.  Much of their DH time went to Franmil Reyes, Contreras, and Schwindel.  Reyes posted a 94 wRC+ in 193 plate appearances for the Cubs after being claimed off waivers from the Guardians, and the team may choose not to tender him a contract and instead keep their options open.

This leaves the Cubs hurting for offense at two traditionally easier-to-fill positions in first base and DH.  The ship may have sailed on Anthony Rizzo even if he does opt out of his Yankees contract, but free agency offers names like Jose Abreu, Brandon Belt, J.D. Martinez, Matt Carpenter, and Michael Brantley.  The Cubs may also find some at-bats for Matt Mervis, who would be a 25-year-old rookie next year and had a huge 2022 with the bat as he ascended from High-A to Triple-A.

The Cubs could also look to upgrade at third base, after a 1.1 WAR season from Patrick Wisdom.  Wisdom, who has also played some first base and left field, could still stick around as a lefty-masher.  If Nolan Arenado doesn’t reach free agency, the third base market looks thin.  Names like Brandon Drury or Evan Longoria could be in play.

Nico Hoerner’s breakout 4-WAR 2022 campaign affords the Cubs some intriguing possibilities.  The first could be an extension for Hoerner, perhaps with J.P. Crawford’s four-year, $46.15MM extension serving as a guidepost.  Though Hoerner logged almost all of his innings at shortstop this year and got above-average defensive marks, the Cubs have signaled a willingness to move him to second base next year.  That could make playing time hard to come by for Nick Madrigal, but the 25-year-old contact specialist put up just a 70 wRC+ in 228 plate appearances this year.

Speculation has been heavy on the possibility of the Cubs signing one of the four big free agent shortstops: Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, or Carlos Correa.  Owner Tom Ricketts did nothing to dispel that notion, saying in his letter to fans, “We will be active in free agency and have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”  Hoyer told reporters, “I have total confidence — if we get to a place where we ask for a significant amount of money to sign one player or several players — that we’ll have his blessing. And I have no doubt the resources will be there.”

Hoyer has also been known to talk about “intelligent” spending.  He elaborated recently, “To me, intelligent spending involves making decisions that make sense for the 2023 season but also aren’t going to hinder what we’re trying to build. The nature of baseball contracts is challenging that way. We’ve all seen contracts of certain lengths that can really bog a team down. It’s easy to talk about the player you’re acquiring, but if that contract ends up hindering the ultimate goal here, which is to build something special and sustainable and lasting, then it wasn’t a good transaction.”

Regret set in pretty quickly for the Cubs’ last two $100MM deals.  With Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal, he simply never hit as the Cubs expected, and Hoyer told reporters in August that the club will release him and eat the $22MM remaining on his contract for 2023.  Darvish was traded for prospects halfway through his six-year deal.  Heyward’s contract, in particular, contributed to the Ricketts family keeping the checkbook closed after the 2018 and ’19 seasons.

We at MLBTR are still deliberating our free agent contract projections, but all of the big four shortstops figure to hit the market seeking seven or eight-year deals. Bogaerts, Turner, Swanson, and Correa were born within a two-year span of each other.  Bogaerts, the oldest, recently turned 30.  Correa, the youngest, just celebrated his 28th birthday.  That gap may not seem like much, but the Cubs are clearly worried about entering another long-term deal they’ll quickly regret.  That’s why I could see some favor for Correa, who could sign a seven-year deal that would still only take him through age 34.

Considering likely non-tenders, the Cubs appear to have about $107MM tied up for a dozen players in 2023, including Heyward’s money.  Assuming Stroman opts out after ’23, the Cubs have a mere two players under contract for 2024 with Suzuki making $20MM and Bote at $5.5MM.  The initial competitive balance tax thresholds are set at $233MM in 2023 and $237MM in 2024.  The Cubs, in one of the country’s largest markets, are currently $217MM below the first CBT threshold for 2024 if Stroman opts out.

There are no players the Cubs can’t afford, up to and including Aaron Judge.  But with Judge turning 31 in April and looking to be paid through age-38 and beyond – and with the Cubs’ outfield in decent long-term shape – he seems an unlikely target.

The Cubs are not remotely close to the CBT.  While teams have stopped paying top free agents through age 41, as the Angels did with Albert Pujols a decade ago, paying stars through age 37 is still often the only way to get them.  And even deals for the youngest of free agents can go bust; it’s hard to find a free agent younger than the 26 Heyward was when the Cubs signed him.

The Cubs outspent expectations last winter with over $200MM in commitments, yet still avoided the leap of faith required to sign the top players on the market.  With the payroll looking increasingly clear and two rebuilding seasons in the rearview, we’ll find out soon how far the Cubs are willing to go.

Report: Cubs Interested In Jose Abreu

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The Cubs could be looking across town for a lineup boost, as Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link) reports that longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu may be a free agent target for the Wrigleyville club.  2022 was the last season of Abreu’s three-year, $50MM contract with the Sox.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series, the White Sox are the only team who can negotiate with the first baseman for the time being, and a new deal can’t be ruled out.  Abreu has often spoken of his desire to remain with the Sox for his entire career, and the front office has likewise regularly praised Abreu’s contributions on and off the field.  Abreu’s last trip to the open market ended up not being very open, as his representatives didn’t even talk to other teams before Abreu accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer prior to signing his three-year pact.

This time around, however, there is a little more doubt that Abreu will remain on the south side of Chicago.  Abreu recently said that there hadn’t been any extension talks with the White Sox front office, and with Abreu turning 36 years old in January, the Sox might prefer to move onto younger options at first base.  Shifting Andrew Vaughn or Gavin Sheets to first base would help the White Sox defensively, and moving on from Abreu’s contract would also free up some payroll space for a team that already has quite a bit of money committed to the 2023 team.

However, since the team’s 2022 payroll already set a new franchise record by topping the $193MM mark, owner Jerry Reinsdorf may have no problem with continued spending to keep Abreu in the fold.  It’s not like Abreu is slowing down much in his mid-30’s — he hit .304/.378/.446 with 15 homers over 679 plate appearances in 2022, with strong hard-contact, strikeout, and walk rates.  Abreu’s power numbers took a drop, yet thanks to improvements in his batting average and on-base percentage, Abreu’s wRC+ was better in 2022 (137) than in 2021 (125).

Any number of teams will have interest in Abreu if he is indeed open to leaving the White Sox, and some of those suitors might be more clear-cut contenders than a Cubs team who went 74-88 in 2022.  Joining the Cubs would allow Abreu to keep his family in Chicago, of course, though it wouldn’t necessarily present a quicker path to winning baseball.

That said, there is enough flux in the NL Central that the Cubs could get back into the hunt with a big offseason, and has been some indication from both ownership and from the front office that the Cubs are turn back towards competing after two years of rebuilding.  Even last winter, the signings of Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to multi-year contracts were indicative that the Cubs didn’t plan on staying in rebuild mode for too long, even if Stroman’s deal does contain an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

An Abreu signing might fit into this shorter-term model, as a three-year deal might be the most Abreu could hope to achieve as he heads into his age-36 season.  His continued production should still merit a comfortable average annual value on that next contract, yet teams will naturally be wary about committing too many years to a player of Abreu’s age.

Signing Abreu would add some veteran stability to the lineup, and immediately address a hole at first base.  Prospect Matt Mervis posted huge numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2022 and seems ready for a shot at the big leagues, though entrusting Mervis with an everyday job right off the bat could be a risky move.  If both Abreu and Mervis were in the fold, the Cubs could toggle the two between first base and DH, allowing for both some rest days for Abreu and time for Mervis to show that he can do against MLB pitching.

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