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Cubs, Phillies Expected To Pursue Marquee Shortstops This Offseason

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The most recent offseason featured a huge crop of star free agents, with the five top-tier shortstops being one of the most exciting elements, as Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez and Trevor Story all reached the open market at the same time. In about five months’ time, another offseason will begin, and though the crop of available shortstops won’t be quite as strong, it still has the potential to be noteworthy.

MLBTR recently released its first Free Agent Power Rankings for the upcoming winter, and although red-hot outfielder Aaron Judge nabbed the top spot, he was followed by three shortstops in the 2, 3 and 4 slots: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. (Correa and Bogaerts both have opt-outs that they are expected to trigger.) In today’s column from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he reports that the Cubs could be big spenders this winter, naming those three shortstops as their primary targets. “I guarantee you they’re going to get one of them,” an unnamed veteran general manager tells Nightengale, who also says that several executives are predicting the Phillies to be sitting at this table as well.

Cubs manager David Ross recently spoke about letting Nico Hoerner serve as the team’s primary shortstop for the remainder of the year, though he’s also spent a decent amount of time at second base, as well as occasionally lining up at third base and in the outfield. It seems the club may be leaning towards a big addition at shortstop and bumping Hoerner over to second base next year.

After a big trade deadline fire sale in 2021, the Cubs were expected to have a fairly quiet offseason this past winter. However, they surprised many people by making a few somewhat aggressive moves. They didn’t land any of the big five shortstops, though they did give out multi-year deals to Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes.

The club is currently sporting a record of 23-31, six games back of the final playoff spot. There’s still time for them to gain some ground, though it’s also possible they go into the trade deadline as sellers this year. But regardless of how they fare for the remainder of this season, they should have spending power this winter. Suzuki is the only player currently under contract for the 2025 season, although the Cubs also have a $7MM club option for David Bote that year. Stroman’s contract runs through 2024, though he can opt out after the 2023 season. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes could also be free agents after 2023, as they have options for 2024.

In short, there’s not a lot preventing the club from making a big splash this winter if they want to. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team ran out Opening Day payrolls in the vicinity of $200MM from 2016 to 2019, but got that number below $150MM last year and this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $94MM at the moment, then just $50MM in 2024 and $20MM in 2025. Arbitration-eligible players will add to those numbers, but not by a lot. If they want to be aggressive in getting out of this rebuild/retool/whatever period, the opportunity is there.

The Phillies, however, are in a very different situation. They had a very aggressive offseason, giving out big contracts to both Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, pushing the club beyond the luxury tax line for the first time. Despite that aggressiveness, they’ve struggled over the first third of the season, going into today’s action with a record of 24-29, 4 1/2 games behind the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.

There was some speculation that they would dive into the shortstop sweepstakes this past winter, though they ultimately decided to stick with the in-house options of Didi Gregorius and prospect Bryson Stott. Gregorius is currently on the IL due to a sprained knee, but was performing okay before that. His .288/.338/.356 line amounts to a 97 wRC+, slightly below league average but much better than the 68 wRC+ he had last year. Regardless, he’s a free agent after this year, giving the club an opening next year. Stott could theoretically fill that void, though he’s struggled in his first taste of MLB action. Through 27 games, he’s hitting just .157/.222/.217 for a wRC+ of just 26. If the Phils were to go out and nab a big fish in free agency, Stott could spend more time in the minors or perhaps shift over to another infield position to try and force his way into the lineup, having played some second and third base as well.

Despite getting into luxury tax territory this year, the club should be able to be aggressive again next winter with many contracts coming off the books. Martinez puts their 2023 payroll at $129MM, well shy of this year’s $232MM, though that doesn’t include a $17MM option for Jean Segura, the $16MM option for Aaron Nola or salaries for arbitration-eligible players, including Rhys Hoskins. Regardless of whether they can turn their 2022 season around, it seems they may keep their foot on the gas pedal going forward, as they look to snap a postseason drought that goes back to 2011.

KBO’s LG Twins Sign Robel Garcia

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June 5: Kurtz relays that the Twins have announced a deal with Garcia for $180K.

June 4, 8:38PM: The KBO League’s LG Twins are in talks with Garcia about a contract, according to a Naver Sports report (hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net).

5:08PM: The Cubs have released utilityman Robel Garcia, according to MiLB.com’s official transactions page.  Garcia “is expected to pursue a career overseas,” Tommy Birch of The Des Moines Register reports, so today’s move could be a precursor to Garcia quickly announcing a deal with a non-MLB team.

Garcia made his Major League debut with the Cubs in 2019 and hit a respectable .208/.275/.500 with five home runs over his first 80 plate appearances.  This trip to the big leagues was the culmination of a rather unusual path for Garcia, who was out of affiliated baseball entirely from 2014-16 and then played two seasons in Italy before resurfacing in the Cubs’ minor league system.

From there, Garcia became a popular waiver claim candidate, as he was a member of five different organizations (Cubs, Reds, Mets, Angels, Astros) between July 2020 and February 2021.  After finally landing in Houston, Garcia hit .151/.216/.208 over 117 PA in the Show last season.

This year, Garcia had been on fire with Triple-A Iowa, batting .295/.394/.619 with 12 home runs in 165 PA.  However, as Birch observes, Garcia was seen as an expendable piece given the crowded state of Chicago’s infield.  Even with some injuries recently surfacing within the infield picture, the writing seemed on the wall for Garcia when he wasn’t called up for even a cup of coffee in the majors to fill any of those vacancies.  The 29-year-old Garcia will now look, for the second time, to revive his career with a stint in an international league.

Cubs Select Caleb Kilian, Option Mark Leiter Jr., DFA Conner Menez

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The Cubs have officially selected the contract of Caleb Kilian while making a number of other roster moves to accommodate his arrival and prepare for today’s doubleheader against the Cardinals. Mark Leiter Jr. was optioned to Triple-A and Conner Menez was designated for assignment, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Anderson Espinoza was also brought aboard to serve as the 27th man for today’s twin bill.

The news of Kilian’s promotion first came across the wire yesterday. His performance will carry more consequence to Cubs’ fans than a normal prospect because of his status as the trade return for Kris Bryant, the one-time face-of-the-franchise. Whether or not it makes sense to put that burden on Kilian, the optics of Kilian’s progress are likely to serve as a touch point for judging the effectiveness of President of Baseball Ops Jed Hoyer’s rebuilding efforts. He’s not the only one, but because Kilian was one of only two pitching prospects returned in the deals for Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Yu Darvish, and Javier Baez, his importance among the group of acquired prospects is somewhat bloated.

Leiter Jr., 31, has been up and down this season as both a starter and reliever. He has been a tad generous with free passes with a 9-to-16 walk-to-strikeout ratio over 17 1/3 innings in the bigs. Though a 4.53 FIP suggests he can be a serviceable arm, the bottom-line results have not been there, as he has racked up a 6.23 ERA.

Menez, 27, was designated for assignment to clear a space on the 40-man roster. He made just one appearance for the Cubs, tossing a scoreless inning. The southpaw has logged 17 1/3 innings in Triple-A, however, with a 2.08 ERA. Claimed off waivers from the Giants this past December, Menez will again be exposed to open waivers.

Espinoza, meanwhile, made his Major League debut just a couple of days ago, tossing four innings against the Brewers, giving up two earned runs on two hits and three walks while striking out six.

Cubs To Promote Caleb Kilian

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The Cubs are planning to promote pitching prospect Caleb Kilian to make his major league debut tomorrow against the Cardinals, manager David Ross told reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). The right-hander is not yet on the 40-man roster, so Chicago will need to formally select his contract tomorrow. The Cubs’ 40-man is full, meaning there’ll be a corresponding move forthcoming.

Chicago acquired Kilian last summer, adding him alongside outfield prospect Alexander Canario from the Giants for Kris Bryant minutes before the trade deadline. San Francisco had selected Kilian in the eighth round of the 2019 draft out of Texas Tech, and he’s elevated his stock with a strong showing in the minor leagues. The right-hander owned an excellent 2.43 ERA through 63 Double-A innings at the time of the trade, and he’s continued to thrive since changing organizations.

Kilian made four starts with the Cubs Double-A affiliate down the stretch, then has started this season at Triple-A Iowa. He’s worked nine starts and tossed 39 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.06 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates (24.8% and 9.1% respectively). Kilian has induced grounders on nearly 60% of batted balls against him — well north of the 43.1% MLB average.

Baseball America recently ranked Kilian the #5 prospect in the Chicago system, writing that he’s improved his raw stuff since entering pro ball. According to BA, the 6’4″ hurler works in the low-mid 90s on his fastball and has a trio of average or better secondary offerings (curveball, cutter and changeup). The outlet credits Kilian with plus control, while FanGraphs wrote this offseason that he may wind up with plus-plus command (a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale) at peak. Both publications suggest he’s likely to be a long-term starting pitcher — probably a middle or back of the rotation arm.

The Cubs would’ve had to add Kilian to the 40-man roster after this season to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, and they’ll bring him aboard a few months early. It remains to be seen whether the first call will be more than a spot start, as the Cubs and Cards are slated for a doubleheader. Whether it’s immediate or at some point a bit down the line, though, the retooling club figures to install Kilian as a regular rotation member fairly soon.

Even if Kilian is in the majors from here on out, he won’t reach a full year of service time this season. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 campaign at the earliest. Kilian would be in strong position to qualify for early arbitration after 2025 as a Super Two player, but optional assignments back to Iowa could change that trajectory.

Cubs’ Prospect Brennen Davis Undergoes Back Surgery

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Cubs top prospect Brennen Davis underwent back surgery yesterday, as Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune first reported. According to Montemurro, the procedure cauterized some blood vessels that had been causing Davis discomfort; he’s not dealing with any structural issues.

A more specific recovery timetable will become clear after he undergoes further testing next week, but Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic reports that he’s expected to miss multiple months. The organization isn’t ruling out the possibility the 22-year-old could return this season, but Sharma suggests there’s a chance he’ll be out for the year. He is expected to make a full recovery, and the Cubs don’t anticipate it being an issue beyond this season.

Baseball America recently ranked Davis the game’s #41 overall prospect, the top farmhand in the Chicago system. The former second-round pick is credited by evaluators with a rare blend of power and athleticism, and the Cubs are certainly hopeful he’ll develop into a long-term regular. BA suggests Davis has All-Star upside, although he’s not without some questions about his bat-to-ball skills. He’d been off to a slow start to the 2022 campaign with Triple-A Iowa, hitting .195/.286/.299 with a 34.1% strikeout rate through 91 plate appearances. Montemurro suggests he’s been dealing with back soreness dating back to Spring Training, so it’s certainly possible the injury played into his subpar performance.

Davis wasn’t going to earn a call-up before turning things around, but he seemed a candidate for a midseason promotion if he righted the ship offensively. The surgery seems to make a 2022 big league debut unlikely. Even if Davis can return to the playing field this year, it stands to reason the Cubs would want to see him have a lengthier run of success against Triple-A arms before adding him to the majors.

While he recovers, Davis will remain on the minor league injured list — where he’s been for a few weeks. If he’s not promoted during the season, Chicago will have to add him to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason to keep other teams from selecting him in the Rule 5 draft.

Cubs Place Drew Smyly On Injured List

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The Cubs have placed starter Drew Smyly on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 31, due to a right oblique strain. Chicago reinstated righty Michael Rucker and outfielder Jason Heyward from the IL, optioning outfielder Nelson Velazquez to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding move.

Smyly was pulled from his start against the Brewers on Monday after three innings because of oblique soreness. He’ll now head to the IL with a strain, the severity of which is yet unclear. Oblique strains often require upwards of a month of recovery time, but the grade of the strain will obviously impact how quickly the southpaw will be able to return. The Cubs haven’t yet specified a timetable.

Signed to a one-year, $5.25MM contract shortly after the lockout was lifted, Smyly has made nine starts with the North Siders. He has a solid 3.80 ERA across 42 2/3 innings, although he’s striking out a personal-worst 18.9% of opposing hitters. Smyly has compensated for the fewer punchouts with a career-low 5.6% walk rate, and he’s still generating swinging strikes on a quality 12.2% of his offerings. As he has throughout his career, Smyly has been prone to home runs, but he’s inducing ground-balls at his highest clip (47.8%).

If healthy, Smyly could be a fairly straightforward trade candidate before the August 2 deadline. He’s not going to bring back a franchise-altering return, but as a capable back-of-the-rotation rental on a noncompetitive Cubs team, Smyly would figure to draw interest. That’s contingent, of course, on his returning to health over the coming weeks and reestablishing himself on the mound.

Rucker has been out of action since May 17 with turf toe on his left foot. Heyward, meanwhile, has been down for the same amount of time while battling COVID-19 symptoms. He returns to both the active and 40-man rosters, and the Cubs needed to clear a 40-man spot for his reinstatement. They’ll do so by recalling righty Manuel Rodríguez from the minors and placing him on the big league 60-day IL.

Rodríguez, 25, made his first 20 MLB relief appearances last season. He struggled to a 6.11 ERA but averaged north of 97 MPH on his fastball. Unfortunately, he made just two April appearances with Triple-A Iowa before landing on the minor league injured list. According to Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link), he’s dealing with a strain in his throwing elbow.

At the very least, Rodríguez won’t be eligible to return to the majors until August. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be healthy enough to make a late-season return. While he recuperates on the big league IL, Rodríguez will pick up major league service time and be paid at prorated portion of the $700K MLB minimum salary.

Cubs, Adrian Sampson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Adrian Sampson, reports Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register (on Twitter). He’s reported to the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Iowa.

It’s a quick return to the organization for Sampson, whom the Cubs just lost on waivers a couple weeks ago. The Mariners had grabbed the 30-year-old after Chicago designated him for assignment, but Seattle took him off their 40-man roster before he even appeared in a game. Sampson passed through the wire unclaimed following his second designation but refused an outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency last week.

Sampson heads back to Iowa, where he’s started five games this year. Through 19 2/3 innings, he posted a 3.66 ERA. Sampson only punched out 14.6% of opponents in that time, but he induced ground-balls at a solid 48.5% clip and continued his career-long track record of pounding the strike zone. Chicago selected him to the majors for one relief outing before unsuccessfully trying to run him through waivers.

That May 8 outing against the Dodgers — in which Sampson allowed two unearned runs in one inning — marked his second straight season with some big league work. The 30-year-old started five of his ten outings for the Cubs last season, posting a 2.80 ERA through 35 1/3 frames. That was in spite of Sampson’s low-strikeout ways and eight home runs allowed, and Chicago outrighted him off their 40-man roster following the season before bringing him back on a Spring Training minor league deal.

Cubs Place Seiya Suzuki On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cubs placed outfielder Seiya Suzuki on the 10-day injured list due to a sprain in the ring finger on his left hand.  As well, right-hander Robert Gsellman has been designated for assignment, and left-hander Brandon Hughes will join the Cubs after his contract was selected from Triple-A.

Suzuki’s placement is retroactive to May 27, as the outfielder hasn’t played since the injury forced to make an early exit from the Cubs’ 20-5 loss to the Reds on May 26.  After a few days of monitoring Suzuki’s condition, there wasn’t enough improvement to avoid an IL trip, and Chicago’s busy schedule likely also played a factor.  The Cubs have nine games within a seven-day span, including today’s doubleheader with the Brewers and another doubleheader Saturday against the Cardinals.

Signed to a big five-year, $85MM deal in the offseason, Suzuki’s first 163 PA in MLB have gone well overall, as his .245/.344/.432 slash line translates to a 116 wRC+ and 119 OPS+.  However, it certainly seems like pitchers have gotten a book on Suzuki, as he had a whopping 1.090 OPS over his first 72 PA but only a .545 OPS in his last 91 trips to the dish.  Suzuki’s paycheck and lengthy resume of success in Japan can obscure the fact that he is still a player seeing Major League pitching for the first time, so there are inevitable going to be some ups and downs as he adjusts.

The sprained finger adds another obstacle for Suzuki to overcome, though given that the team was still hopeful that he could return as early as today, he might not miss more than the minimum 10 days.  Clint Frazier (just back from the IL himself) and rookie Nelson Velazquez will probably get the bulk of time in right field until Suzuki or Jason Heyward return from the injured list.

Gsellman signed a minors deal with the Cubs during the offseason, and posted a 5.02 ERA over 14 1/3 innings for Chicago since his contract was selected earlier this month.  Never a big strikeout pitcher even his best years as a reliever and swingman with the Mets, Gsellman has only a 13.5% strikeout rate over 57 MLB innings since the start of the 2020 season.

Hughes rejoins the Cubs after making history in his Major League debut earlier this season, striking out the first five Pirates batters he faced on May 17.  This made Hughes the first pitcher in modern (since 1901) baseball history to record at least five outs all by strikeouts in his first big league appearance.  Overall, Hughes had a 2.57 ERA over seven innings and five appearances.

Cubs Select Matt Swarmer, Place Jonathan Villar On IL

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May 30: The Cubs announced the Swarmer move as part of a broader series of transactions, with various reporters relaying the slate, including Mark Gonzales. To make room on the 40-man roster for Swarmer, Ethan Roberts has been transferred to the 60-day IL. To make room on the active roster, Jonathan Villar was placed on the 10-day IL after suffering a mouth injury while working out. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune provides further context, saying that Villar had an exercise band snap back into his mouth, suffering an injury that will require significant dental work.

Furthermore, Anderson Espinoza has been recalled as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader. Nelson Velazquez, whose recall was reported yesterday, has also been added.

As for Roberts, he was placed on the IL May 2 with shoulder inflammation and won’t be eligible to return until early July. While there’s no timetable on his return, it seems the club isn’t expecting him back before then, based on today’s transaction.

May 29: The Cubs are going to select the contract of right-handed pitcher Matt Swarmer, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. He will start the first game of tomorrow’s doubleheader against the Brewers, making his major league debut. Swarmer isn’t on the club’s 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move will be required at some point between now and the start of the game.

It was reported earlier today that the Brewers will be promoting Ethan Small to make his major league debut in the same game, making it a battle of the debutants in tomorrow afternoon’s Memorial Day tilt. For those who like factoids, Jesse Rogers of ESPN relays that this will be the first time the Brewers have been involved in a game with two starters making their debuts, while the Cubs haven’t done it since 1944.

Swamer, 28, was a 19th round selection of the Cubs in the 2016 draft. Since then, he has quietly crept towards the majors without garnering too much attention from prospect evaluators. He’s never appeared on Baseball America’s list of top Chicago farmhands, nor on that of FanGraphs, though he did get a brief honorable mention on the FanGraphs list going into 2019. Just over a year ago, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs did focus his radar on Swarmer, complementing the movement of his slider.

Last year, between Double-A and Triple-A, Swarmer made 20 starts and four relief appearances, logging 112 2/3 innings with a 4.79 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate. He seems to have taken a step forward this year, as he’s made five starts and four relief appearances, throwing 39 innings with a 2.08 ERA. He’s gotten his strikeouts up to 27.3% but is also getting more walks with a 9.1% rate. A .213 BABIP and 82.8% strand rate are surely helping to deflate that ERA somewhat, though there’s lots to like about his results nonetheless.

The Cubs’ rotation currently consists of Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly, Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Keegan Thompson. But thanks to tomorrow’s doubleheader and another this Saturday, they are currently in a stretch of playing 11 games in 9 days. It’s possible that Swarmer will stick around for at least a couple of start to help the club get through that gruelling stretch. They then have a couple of days off in the following week, which should allow them to return to a five-man rotation, though health and performance issues can always change plans quickly.

Cubs To Promote Nelson Velazquez

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The Cubs are set to call up outfield prospect Nelson Velazquez prior to tomorrow’s doubleheader with the Brewers, as Velazquez revealed his first MLB promotion via his Instagram page (hat tip to Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago).

A fifth-round pick in the 2017 draft, Velazquez is ranked 15th on Baseball America’s list of the top 30 Cubs prospects, and 16th on MLB Pipeline’s list.  Velazquez broke out by crushing Double-A pitching in both 2021 and 2022, while in between starring in Arizona Fall League play.  Earning his first promotion to Triple-A just earlier this month, Velazquez has slowed down at the plate, batting only .214/.291/.414 over 79 plate appearances for the Iowa Cubs.

This modest production at Triple-A hints at Velazquez still being an unfinished product as a hitter, as he has struck out in 29 of those 79 PA.  The BA and Pipeline scouting reports each observe that Velazquez is prone to strikeouts and chasing pitches, but when he does make contact, the 23-year-old has shown plenty of raw power and exit velocity.  Flattening out his swing last season was one of the key factors to his improvement in Double-A ball.  Defensively, Velazquez seems big league-ready, capable of playing at least a decent center field but perhaps more suited to right field given his strong throwing arm.

That right field capability could hint at Velazquez’s role with Chicago, as Seiya Suzuki has been bothered by a sprained ring finger on his left hand.  The injury forced Suzuki to make an early exit from Thursday’s game and he hasn’t played since, so a trip to the injured list might create a vacancy in the Cubs’ outfield.

If Suzuki doesn’t require the IL, Stebbins notes two other roster possibilities for Velazquez, including the open roster spot created when Chris Martin was placed on the bereavement list earlier today.  As well, Velazquez might also just be a temporary call-up as the 27th man for Monday’s pair of games.  A 40-man roster adjustment isn’t necessary, as the Cubs already added Velazquez to their 40-man last November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

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