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Astros Notes: Valdez, CBT, Infield, Brown

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The Astros came into the offseason clearly needing rotation upgrades, due to a variety of injuries and the departure of Framber Valdez to free agency. Valdez is still unsigned but it always seemed likely that he and the Astros would part ways. That’s seems even more likely now that the Astros have added Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows and Ryan Weiss to their starting pitching group. General manager Dana Brown was asked about Valdez in an appearance on MLB Network and acknowledged that Valdez is still available but also spoke about him as though he’s already gone.

“Well, look, Framber’s still out there,” Brown said. “We don’t know how that’s going to play out. But we know that we had to get some starting pitching. So, we’ve been able to acquire three starters because we know Framber is still on the market. Us getting Mike Burrows is big, and Ryan Weiss, that was also big. So, we added those three guys. When you’re losing Framber — he’s still on the market, he’s out there — but if you don’t get him, of course, you’re losing those innings. So, adding these guys, we feel really good about it. They’re all pretty good competitors as well.”

It’s not especially surprising that things are playing out this way. Valdez is one of the top free agents of this winter’s class. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a $150MM guarantee over five years, $30MM in terms of average annual value. The Astros generally don’t like to spend huge money on pitching. Their franchise record guarantee for a pitcher is the $85MM extension for Lance McCullers Jr. back in 2021. Back in December, it was reported that the club had some contact with Valdez’s camp, but that was before the Imai deal.

Beyond their natural aversion to spending on pitchers, the Astros seemingly came into this winter with a tight budget, due to their preference for avoiding the competitive balance tax. They had enough wiggle room to add Imai, but his three-year, $54MM deal comes with an AAV of $18MM. That’s still a decent number but well below the projections for Valdez. Weiss is only guaranteed $2.6MM on a one-year deal. Houston had to give up a couple of notable prospects to get Burrows but he’s still making the league minimum.

RosterResource currently projects the Astros for a CBT number of about $238MM. That puts them about $6MM below next year’s base CBT threshold of $244MM. In recent years, the club’s modus operandi has been to get close to the line without going over, though they ended up surging over the line in each of the past two years.

Going into 2024, they were a bit under the line until Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery in mid-January. Suddenly feeling the bullpen was too weak, Houston signed Josh Hader and flew over the tax line. In 2025, they were under the tax line for most of the season but then jumped at the chance to pick up Carlos Correa, going into CBT territory in the process.

Once again, they have positioned themselves just under the tax, though final status isn’t calculated until the end of the season. That means that they could decide to pay the tax once again for the right opportunity.

“Everybody writes that I’m afraid of the luxury tax,” owner Jim Crane said yesterday, as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “I’m not necessarily afraid of it but I run the team like a business and there’s only so much resources you can put into it without going deep in the hole. We don’t operate like a lot of the bigger market teams but you’ve seen over the years we’ll spend the money when we think it’s right and we’ll be aggressive when we have to be.”

Taking the comments of Brown and Crane together, it seems possible that the Astros may have already made their most significant moves of the winter. A few depth transactions would still be likely but the roster might be mostly set. It’s theoretically possible for the Astros to trade an infielder, which would open up a bit of a playing time logjam and also potentially some payroll space, but Brown also downplayed that.

“I think there’s a chance where we can get all of these guys a ton of at-bats,” Brown said in the MLB Network appearance linked above, “whether it’s the DH slot, whether it’s giving some guys some time off. I don’t think all these guys are going to play 162 games, right? You have guys that may play 140 and so there’s going to be some at-bats. It protects you when you want to give guys rest. So, we’re looking at this in many ways. But, you know, we still are listening to other teams. We have teams calling us about some of our players. We’ll still listen.”

The Astros currently have Correa at third, Jeremy Peña at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second base and Christian Walker at first base. That leaves Isaac Paredes potentially splitting time at the corners with Correa and Walker. He has second base experience but hasn’t played there since 2023. Altuve played some outfield in 2025 but didn’t grade out well there. Yordan Alvarez should get most of the DH time. He can also play the outfield, where the Astros have Jake Meyers, Cam Smith, Jesús Sánchez, Zach Cole and Zach Dezenzo.

Walker is making $20MM annually through 2027. Paredes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.3MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. Given the somewhat crowded infield picture and the tight budget, there’s an argument for the Astros trading someone to free up some cash. However, based on Brown’s comments, it seems the club is leaning towards keeping the whole group and portioning out playing time with some off-days to keep everyone fresh.

Perhaps a trade will come together, given Brown’s admission that they will listen when other teams call. But if the status quo holds, that doesn’t leave much room for any more notable rotation additions, unless the Astros decide to again shoot over the CBT line. Barring that scenario, the Astros will likely open the season with a six-man rotation consisting of Hunter Brown, Imai, Burrows, Weiss and Cristian Javier with guys like Nate Pearson, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Jason Alexander, McCullers and Miguel Ullola in the mix for starts.

Speaking of Hunter Brown, Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of signing the righty to an extension and GM said they will broach the subject at some point. “We had some discussions with Hunter Brown about two years ago and we expect that to heat up again. Look, he’s got Boras, so it won’t be easy. But at the end of the day, we will definitely talk to Hunter Brown about an extension at some point.”

It was reported last year that Hunter expressed interest in an extension prior to the 2024 season but talks went nowhere and he lated hired Scott Boras to represent him. Boras clients do sometimes sign extensions but it’s a bit of a rare occurrence, as the GM alluded to.

What also complicates matters is that Brown has taken his performance up quite a bit since then. He posted a 5.09 earned run average in 2023, his first full season in the bigs. He dropped that to 3.49 in 2024 and then 2.43 last year, finishing third in 2025 American League Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.

Hunter is now three years from free agency, meaning his earning power could be pushing towards the upper levels of Houston’s comfort zone. The Astros signed Javier to a $64MM extension going into 2023, when he was between three and four years of service. Brown’s demand could be reasonably in that range and would only get higher as he gets closer to free agency. Crochet just set a new bar for guys within two years of the open market, signing a $170MM deal with the Red Sox last winter. Given the gap in those numbers, Houston would surely be wise to get something doon sooner rather than later.

A big extension for Brown has the potential for increasing the club’s CBT number. Even if the deal is structured so that his salary increases gradually over the years, a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value. Perhaps the Astros would like to first sign Hunter to a one-year deal for 2026, where he’s projected for a $5.7MM salary. They could then have the extension start in 2027 so that it doesn’t impact the 2026 CBT. That would increase the CBT hit in future seasons but the McCullers deal is off the books after 2026 and it’s possible Imai will also opt out after one season in Houston, freeing up some future CBT room.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

Astros Receiving “Minimal” Interest In Christian Walker

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The Astros kicked off the offseason by downplaying the idea that they would consider dealing away either third baseman Isaac Paredes or first baseman Christian Walker to clear the infield logjam the summer’s Carlos Correa trade created, but more recent reporting has suggested at least some discussions involving Paredes with the Red Sox. Chandler Rome of The Athletic discussed situation in Houston with more detail yesterday, noting that the club’s plans to use Yordan Alvarez as a regular DH and Jose Altuve at second base more frequently in 2026 leave the club with limited options to squeeze both Paredes and Walker into the lineup on a regular basis. That would seemingly indicate that a trade is likely to be in the cards, but Rome added that the club has received little interest in Walker’s services this winter.

That’s not exactly shocking news, given the lackluster inaugural season Walker put together with the Astros. In 154 games with Houston, Walker slashed just .238/.297/.421 with a wRC+ of 99 and 1.1 fWAR. The season wasn’t all bad, as Walker did hit .250/.312/.488 after the All-Star break. That second half performance saw him swat 15 homers in 263 plate appearances and post a 120 wRC+ that was exactly in line with what he had done in Arizona from 2022-24, offering some reason for optimism headed into the veteran’s age-35 season in 2026.

Even with that optimism, however, it’s easy to see why rival clubs wouldn’t be especially excited about taking on the final two years and $40MM owed to an aging first baseman who posted numbers just a tick below league average last year alongside his highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate since becoming an MLB regular. Walker’s declining discipline would surely make it hard for the Astros to get a significant return for his services, which could leave the team better off hoping for a return to form and instead listening to offers on Paredes.

That would be a real blow to the team’s lineup, as Paredes delivered a .254/.352/.458 (128 wRC+) performance in 102 games before being sidelined by a hamstring injury shortly before the trade deadline. Losing that sort of offensive impact from a lineup that posted a pedestrian wRC+ of 100 last year would be difficult, but a healthy season from Alvarez would surely help to make up for the loss of Paredes even if quality regulars like Walker, Correa, and Altuve don’t bounce back. That could make a trade that ships out Paredes in exchange for pitching help sensible for the Astros, especially given the team’s logjam around the infield.

With star shortstop Jeremy Pena just two seasons from free agency and the market for quality shortstops this winter extremely thin, there’s been some speculation about his own availability in trades. While a trade of Pena could allow Correa to slide back to shortstop while Paredes reclaims his native third base, Rome reports that GM Dana Brown firmly shut that notion down. When asked if he was discussing Pena in trade talks, Brown was emphatic in his denial.

“No,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. “His name has not come up and I think teams understand if you’re a winning team and you’re trying to go back to the postseason, there’s no way you can trade your starting shortstop.”

The team’s apparent plans leave increasingly limited options for the team to keep both first base options in the fold, and Rome suggests that Paredes learning left field could be the only way to fit both Paredes and Walker in the lineup on a regular basis next year. That assumes Alvarez will be an everyday DH and Altuve will return to second base on a regular basis, as comments from Brown and manager Joe Espada have suggested. That would leave room for occasional starts for Paredes at second base or DH on days off or during rare cameos for either player in left field, but it hardly seems likely to be a significant number of at-bats.

Rome’s suggestion of Paredes trying left field comes with real obstacles. The 26-year-old has zero experience anywhere in the outfield as a professional, which makes the possibility of a move to left seem fairly remote. Altuve had never played the outfield prior to picking up the position last spring, but moving to the outfield could come with additional considerations for Paredes so soon after a major hamstring injury. Perhaps playing time could be juggled between six players for five spots in the lineup even without Paredes spending time in left, though Rome noted that the players themselves might not be content with being asked to sit regularly.

Turning back to Walker, if the Astros were motivated to move him Rome suggests that he’s not unmovable. Walker’s track record, veteran presence, and strong second half were surely be enough to find a take for his services on the trade market in at least some capacity, though Houston would surely have to eat a chunk of his salary and/or accept a fairly minimal return in order to facilitate that sort of deal. The Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Padres are among the teams who could theoretically use help at first base this winter, though many of those clubs may prefer their internal options to swinging a trade for Walker.

Astros GM: “No Interest” In Trading Isaac Paredes

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The Astros appear to have something of a corner infield logjam. They acquired Carlos Correa at the deadline, and Jeremy Peña’s presence meant Correa needed to move to third base. That made sense while Isaac Paredes was injured but is a tougher fit if everyone is healthy. The Astros have Christian Walker signed for two more seasons at first base. Yordan Alvarez remains the primary designated hitter, and the Astros would probably welcome the opportunity to get Jose Altuve more DH at-bats if they could find them.

Based on that glut of corner bats, there’s been speculation about the Astros trading an infielder this offseason. Most of that has revolved around Paredes or Walker, but general manager Dana Brown downplayed the idea that the Astros were looking to move either player. That’s particularly true of Paredes, who turned in a .254/.352/.458 line with 20 homers in 102 games during his first season in Houston.

“He was one of the best guys at seeing pitches and working counts and it’s one of the reasons why we went out and traded for him,” Brown told reporters at the GM Meetings on Wednesday (link via Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). “We need that value in our lineup. It’s the exact direction we’re trying to take it. We feel like if we trade him it would be weakening our lineup. So right now, we have no interest in trading him.”

Paredes was the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker return from the Cubs. He ranked fifth on the team in on-base percentage and tied for third in homers despite missing most of the second half with a significant strain of his right hamstring. Paredes returned late in the season but was limited to DH work. Brown said he’s currently at roughly 65% health and will “potentially” be available for Opening Day (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

The 26-year-old’s swing is geared for pull-side pop that makes him an ideal fit in Houston’s Daikin Park, where the Crawford Boxes leave a short porch in left field. The two-time All-Star was an accomplished hitter with the Rays, so it’s not as if he’s only a product of the park, but he’s perfectly tailored even for a lineup that skews very heavily to the right side.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Paredes for a $9.3MM arbitration salary. He’ll go through that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2027-28 offseason. There’d be significant interest if the Astros did decide to shop him, likely for starting pitching, but they’re clearly proceeding as if he’ll be in their lineup. Brown said the Astros are not considering him for a regular role at second base, so he’ll be back mostly in the corners.

While that’d seemingly point in the direction of a Walker trade, the GM indicated that’s not currently under consideration either. “We haven’t talked about Walker in a trade. Walker’s our everyday first baseman,” Brown said. He’s in a much different spot from Paredes. He’s signed for $20MM annually for his age 35-36 seasons. Walker had a team-leading 27 homers this year, but he hit .238 with a career-worst .297 on-base percentage. The three-time Gold Glove winner also posted uncharacteristically middling defensive grades. Baseball Reference felt he was right around replacement level overall, while FanGraphs had him at one WAR.

That’s not the kind of season that would net Walker $20MM per season on a multi-year deal if he were a free agent. The Astros might need to eat around half the money just to move him for a middling return. That would open first base for Paredes and reallocate a bit of payroll room for rotation adds, yet it’d leave them with more dead money on a first baseman right as the José Abreu contract finally comes off the books. The Astros could value Walker’s power and defensive reputation enough to hold him in hope that he rebuilds some value.

Trading Correa or Peña seems even more far-fetched. “We’re not really trying to pull from the infield in the trade market, simply because we feel like all those guys are going to be part of the top of our lineup,” Brown said generally. “I think they’re all going to hit somewhere between 1 and 6. So I wouldn’t try to make any moves from the infield standpoint.” That blanket statement probably doesn’t apply to utility players Ramón Urías or Mauricio Dubón, who are respectively projected for $4.4MM and $5.8MM in their final seasons of arbitration. The Astros could trade or non-tender either or both.

Brown spoke generally about the Astros bouncing players around the diamond to maximize rest opportunities for their veteran hitters. Correa has never played second base, though he’d presumably be capable of doing so. One speculative option would be to get Correa semi-regular second base work on days when Paredes is at the hot corner. They’ll have Altuve continue bouncing between second base, left field and DH with Alvarez splitting time between DH and left.

That carries into an outfield that should feature a couple changes. Houston traded for Jesús Sánchez to add a left-handed bat who could play right field down the stretch. Sánchez played terribly, batting .199/.269/.349 with multiple defensive lapses. He’s projected at a $6.5MM arbitration salary and under club control for two seasons. Chandler Rome of The Athletic writes that the Astros are open to trade inquiries on Sánchez, though it seems more likely they won’t find interest and will simply non-tender him at next Friday’s deadline.

That’ll likely leave the Astros in search of another left-handed hitting outfielder. Rookies Zach Cole and Jacob Melton could factor in but have limited track records. Taylor Trammell is probably on the roster bubble. Moving on from Sánchez and adding someone like Max Kepler, Cedric Mullins or Mike Yastrzemski in free agency would make sense.

Notably, Brown would not commit to second-year outfielder Cam Smith breaking camp in 2026. The former first-rounder, acquired alongside Paredes in the Tucker deal, hit .236/.312/.358 across 493 plate appearances as a rookie. It was hardly a disastrous showing for a player with such limited professional experience, and Smith played an excellent right field despite being drafted as a third baseman. Yet he struggled significantly in the second half (.154/.247/.242) and could be due for a look against Triple-A pitching.

“We saw glimpses of it last year, but we’re going to need him to be more consistent,” Brown said (via Rome). “I would think he comes back and tries to play with more consistency and makes the necessary adjustments, but we have to be open to sending him back to Triple-A if he hasn’t turned the corner. … There’s a lot to be said for guys that work hard in the offseason and then make the necessary adjustments. We’re hoping that Cam does that. If he does that, we’ll be excited.”

Optioning Smith would give the Astros the flexibility to pursue an everyday right fielder. Jake Meyers should be back as the primary center fielder, though Rome reports that Houston has received a fair bit of trade interest in the 29-year-old. That’s to be expected, as Meyers is a plus defender who is coming off a career year at the plate. He hit .292/.354/.373 over 381 plate appearances with dramatically improved strike zone discipline. He’s controllable for another two seasons and projected at a bargain $3.5MM rate. It’s difficult to envision a Houston team already looking for outfielders trading Meyers, but it’s possible another club tries to force their hand by putting a controllable starting pitcher on the table.

MLBTR Podcast: The Struggling Mets, Bryce Eldridge, And Trey Yesavage

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Astros trade Christian Walker in the offseason and move Isaac Paredes over to first base? (38:45)
  • Will the Braves make any shocking trades of their core this offseason? (47:40)
  • Will the Red Sox nab a postseason spot and can they make a deep postseason run? (55:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images

Astros, Twins Reportedly Discussed Christian Walker In Carlos Correa Trade

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5:17PM: Nightengale clarified his earlier report, saying that it was the Twins who first floated Walker’s name and the Astros who passed on moving the first baseman.

2:56PM: The Astros and Twins pulled off a shocking move in the final hours before the deadline that brought three-time All-Star infielder Carlos Correa back home to the team that he spent the first seven seasons of his career with. The deal sent Correa to Houston in exchange for pitching prospect Matt Mikulski, with the Twins retaining $33MM of the $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided additional details on the Correa negotiations this morning.

Most notably, Nightengale writes that the sides talked about including veteran first baseman Christian Walker as part of the return headed to Minnesota in exchange for Correa’s services. He adds that while the Twins “had the opportunity” to acquire Walker as part of the deal, they passed on taking the final two years and $40MM of his contract on. That’s not exactly a shocking decision. Given that Mikulski is a 26-year-old who has not yet even reached the Double-A level, it’s fair to view the Correa deal as a pure salary dump for Minnesota. Previous reporting has indicated that the Twins are more than $400MM in debt, and Nightengale writes that the club has lost $40MM this year.

That would make adding a larger contract like that of Walker counterproductive in most scenarios. Perhaps there was a version of the deal where the Twins retained less of Correa’s salary while taking on Walker’s contract, but given his mediocre 2025 campaign (96 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR) and the fact that he’s already 34 years old it’s understandable that the Twins wouldn’t be too interested in adding him at the beginning of a rebuild that might not end until Walker has already hit free agency.

There’s at least an argument to be made that he would’ve been a worthwhile addition to the club based on their lack of a long-term solution at the position, however. Kody Clemens is currently serving as the club’s first baseman and has blasted 12 homers in 65 games since landing in Minnesota, but is a career 82 wRC+ hitter in 222 big league games who seems unlikely to sustain that sort of production. Edouard Julien and Jose Miranda are both capable of playing the position and have past big league success but poor performance has relegated them to the minors for much of the year.

That could make the veteran consistency Walker could provide quite attractive in theory, especially after the loss of Correa and others from the clubhouse could leave a dearth of veteran leadership in the clubhouse outside of franchise face Byron Buxton. On the other hand, Walker lacks much upside; even his best seasons with the Diamondbacks saw him peak at a wRC+ of around 120, and the Twins could likely find a younger, cheaper alternative who has more of a chance to develop into a middle-of-the-order force if they were interested in doing so this offseason.

While the Twins may not have been a fit for Walker’s services, Nightengale suggests that the veteran might get shopped by the Astros this winter in a bid to make room for infielder Isaac Paredes as first base next year. That’s a sensible assumption based on the composition of the club’s roster. While the idea of Paredes moving to second was briefly floated last offseason, there’s been a great deal of skepticism since then about his viability as a defender at third base. Yordan Alvarez must be penciled in as the club’s DH even after a 2025 season that has been mostly lost to injury, and with a former Gold Glove shortstop in Correa who’s eager to move to third base in deference to fellow Gold Glove shortstop Jeremy Pena there isn’t room for Paredes on the left side of the infield anymore.

At the same time, Paredes’s bat is much too important to lose from the lineup. The two-time All-Star has hit an impressive .259/.359/.470 with 19 homers, 15 doubles, and triple in 96 games for the Astros this year. The third baseman is expected to miss the remainder of the 2025 season at this point, so fitting him into the lineup is not a concern in the short-term. First base seems like by far the most logical fit the slugger for the 2026 season, however. Paredes is under team control through the end of the 2027 season, so he’ll need to find a new long-term home in Houston with Correa set to take over the hot corner.

That will likely make Walker expendable this offseason. He’s certainly not had the season either side was hoping for when he signed with the Astros on a three-year, $60MM deal this past offseason. Back in June, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk wrote about the lackluster start Walker had to his Astros career. He’s begun to turn things around since then, with a strong .288/.352/.466 (129 wRC+) slash line in 186 plate appearances since that article was published, but the concerns discussed in that piece still ring true. Walker is an aging, pricey veteran on a multi-year contract who has begun to show signs of decline.

It’s not the easiest profile to find a suitor for, but perhaps there will be a team in need of help at first base this winter with whom the club can work out a trade—particularly if they’re willing to pay down some of Walker’s remaining salary. The veteran’s play over the season’s final two months and into the postseason figures to have a major influence over how feasible an offseason trade will end up being and how much money, if any, the Astros would have to retain in order to move him.

If Houston’s front office doesn’t find an offer they deem acceptable for Walker, there are other avenues to working out the infield logjam, though each presents some issues. Perhaps Paredes could see some time at second base despite defensive questions. It’s possible that Walker could get some playing time at DH on days Alvarez plays the outfield, with Jose Altuve at second base. A trade of Paredes could even theoretically be considered, especially if a similarly well-regarded and controllable outfielder was available in return. As the Astros demonstrated for Jose Abreu, they’re also not opposed to simply cutting ties with a struggling veteran who no longer fits the club’s needs, though Walker would surely need to take an extreme turn for the worse in order for that option to be on the table.

Astros Recall Kenedy Corona For Major League Debut

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The Astros have recalled outfielder Kenedy Corona. He takes the active roster spot of first baseman Christian Walker, who has been placed on the paternity list. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to relay the moves. Video of Corona celebrating his promotion with his minor league teammates was shared by Águilas del Zulia, his Venezuelan winter league club, yesterday. McTaggart adds that right-hander Jordan Weems, who was designated for assignment last week, has cleared waivers and elected free agency.

Corona, now 25, was originally signed by the Mets out of Venezuela as an international amateur. He was sent to the Astros in the December 2019 trade which sent outfielder Jake Marisnick to Queens. The minor leagues were cancelled in 2020 but Corona then went on to have a solid three-year run after that. From 2021 to 2023, he got into 281 minor league games, climbing to Double-A in the process. He hit 43 home runs and stole 79 bases, slashing .260/.339/.450 for a 110 wRC+.

He was eligible for the 2023 Rule 5 draft, but the Astros didn’t want him to get away, so they gave him a 40-man roster spot. Since then, his offense has seemingly hit a wall. Dating back to the start of 2024, he has a combined batting line of .220/.314/.316, which translates to a 78 wRC+. However, he is considered a great defender and swiped another 35 bags in that time.

Jake Meyers is banged up at the moment. He left yesterday’s game with some calf tightness, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. Perhaps he will need to sit out another day or two, which could leave the Astros a bit thin in the outfield, especially with Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, Pedro León and Jacob Melton all on the injured list.

The active mix consists of Cam Smith, Cooper Hummel and Taylor Trammell, as well as Meyers. Infielders Zack Short and Shay Whitcomb have some limited outfield experience. Houston had Jose Altuve in left field earlier in the year but he has mostly been back at second base for the past few weeks to cover for the Brendan Rodgers injury. Mauricio Dubón is also capable of playing the outfield but is currently playing a lot of shortstop with Jeremy Peña is on the injured list.

Put it all together and it makes sense for the club to use Walker’s spot for an extra outfielder for a few days while Meyers is hurt. Perhaps Corona will only be up for a few days while Walker is on the paternity list, but he’ll get a chance to make his major league debut whenever he is put into a game.

Weems, 32, has signed minor league deals with Atlanta and Houston this year. Getting released from the first one allowed him to land the second one. He got a brief stint in the majors with Houston, allowing two earned runs in three innings. He is out of options, so the Astros bumped him off the 40-man roster when adding a fresh arm to the active roster.

Players with three years of service time or a previous career outright have the right to elect free agency. Weems qualified on both counts. He has exercised his right and will see what opportunities are out there for him. Since he cleared waivers, he will likely be limited to minor league offers.

He showed some potential with the Nationals a few years ago. Over the 2022 and 2023 seasons, he tossed 94 1/3 innings for Washington with a 4.29 earned run average, 25.4% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. But in 2024, his strikeout rate dipped to 17.9% as his walk rate climbed to 12.2%, leading to a 6.70 ERA. He was bumped off Washington’s roster during the season and has mostly been stuck in the minors since then. In his 29 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 4.66 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

The Astros Are (Again) Not Getting Much From A Pricey First Base Signing

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The Astros signed Jose Abreu to a three-year, $58.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason, seemingly sealing up a first base position that was one of the few weak links on the club’s World Series-winning roster from the prior season.  Abreu was entering his age-36 season and his power numbers had dropped off considerably in 2022, but the former AL MVP still delivered a strong overall year at the plate by hitting .304/.378/.446 in what proved to be his final year with the White Sox.  Coming off an impressive 137 wRC+, Abreu’s “professional hitter” track record indicated that he would continue to be productive into his late-30s, making his deal a wise investment for Houston on paper.

In practice, of course, things quickly went south for Abreu in his new home.  After hitting only .237/.296/.383 in 594 PA in 2023, Abreu hit so poorly (.124/.167/.195) over his first 120 PA of the 2024 season that the Astros chose to release the veteran in June of last year, and simply ate the remainder of his contract.  Right now, roughly $11.9MM is still owed to Abreu through the remainder of the 2025 season.

Even with such a big chunk of Abreu’s deal still on the books for 2025, the Astros certainly felt the need to address first base in a major fashion this past winter.  It should be noted, technically, that Christian Walker was Houston’s backup plan for the first base position.  After acquiring Isaac Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, the Astros then seemingly had another deal lined up with the Cardinals to land Nolan Arenado, which would’ve installed Arenado at third base and Paredes as Houston’s new first baseman.  Instead, Arenado used his no-trade protection to reject the move to Houston, with later reporting revealing that Arenado wasn’t closing the door on the Astros entirely as a landing spot, but simply wanted a bit more time to evaluate the situation given that Houston had just dealt away a superstar in Tucker.

Rather than wait for Arenado, the Astros instead made a splash on the free agent market by signing Walker to a three-year, $60MM contract.  This made Paredes the new third baseman, and that part of the equation has at least worked out since Paredes is off to a great start in his first year in an Astros uniform.

To fill first base, then, the Astros seemed to be solidifying things quite nicely with Walker, a two-time Fielding Bible Award-winning defender.  Walker had also hit .253/.332/.464 with 141 home runs over 3171 PA for the Diamondbacks from 2019-24, posting above-average offensive numbers except for his injury-marred 2021 campaign.  He was showing no signs of slowing down as he entered his age-34 season, and in the eyes of many observers, Walker was a much surer thing at first base than Pete Alonso, who is four years younger and had to wait much longer than Walker did to land a new contract.

The 36-29 Astros are in first place in the AL West, and appear to be once again lining up to make a run in October.  The 2025 season is also only 65 games deep, so we’re still dealing with relatively small sample sizes when discussing players who are or aren’t performing well.  Yet, even with the caveat that Walker’s slow start isn’t really holding the Astros back to any great extent, it still isn’t good that his performance has suddenly cratered over his first two-plus months in Houston.

Through 260 plate appearances, Walker is hitting .207/.269/.350 with eight home runs, and only 16 qualified players have a lower wRC+ than Walker’s 76 figure.  His 6.2% walk rate and 27.7% strikeout rate are each far below the league average, and on pace to be Walker’s worst BB% and K% rates over any of his full Major League seasons.  Walker’s barrel and hard-hit ball rates are slightly down from his 2024 numbers but are still solid, yet his Isolated Power metric has plummeted from .217 in 2024 to just .143 in 2025.

A .258 BABIP is part of the problem, so again, it is certainly possible Walker’s numbers might normalize once more of his hard contact starts translating into hits.  However, Walker is chasing more pitches out of the zone than usual, and his 47.9% pull rate is well above the 42% pull rate he carried into the 2025 season.  One interpretation could be that the right-handed hitting Walker is focusing a little too much on taking advantage of Daikin Park’s short porch in left field, yet his splits pour cold water on that theory.  Walker is hitting .250/.321/.431 at his new home ballpark, and only .165/.217/.273 on the road.

Another set of splits might offer another hint, as Walker has a .662 OPS over 227 PA against right-handed pitching and a .320 OPS in 33 PA against left-handed pitching.  Walker’s career splits against righties and lefties are almost exactly even, yet his lack of production against southpaws (when he should have the advantage) may not stand out as much as how rarely Walker has gotten to face left-handed pitching.

This could be a bit of a statistical fluke, but the Astros’ overall lineup is absurdly lopsided in favor of righty bats.  With Yordan Alvarez and Taylor Trammell on the injured list, rookie Jacob Melton and two backup catchers (Cesar Salazar and the switch-hitting Victor Caratini) provide the only left-handed balance in Houston’s current mix of position players.  Opposing teams have little reason to deploy their lefty pitchers against the Astros’ phalanx of right-handed batters, and Walker may be having some trouble adjusting to this new reality.

If Walker’s batting numbers are a letdown, his glovework is perhaps more shocking than anything.  Walker has produced -4 Defensive Runs Saved and +1 Outs Above Average over 543 1/3 innings at the Astros’ first base spot this year, down from a +7 DRS and +13 OAA in 2024.  Adding to this puzzling situation is the fact that Walker is now suddenly a relative weak link on one of baseball’s better defensive teams — Houston ranks second in baseball in OAA (18), and Fangraphs’ overall defensive ranking system puts the Astros ninth in the league.

The overall result for Walker is a -0.3 fWAR to show for his first 63 games with the Astros.  Needless to say, it is not what Houston expected from its biggest free agent signing, especially since inking Walker cost the Astros not just $60MM but also two compensatory draft picks, since Houston exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024.

Perhaps if Abreu’s contract wasn’t still sitting on the Astros’ books, Walker’s performance could just be written off as a slump, or an adjustment period for a player moving to the AL West after eight years in the National League.  But, Houston fans can be forgiven for sounding some alarm bells over an underwhelming free agent first baseman, especially with Jose Altuve’s own struggles and Alvarez’s uncertain injury situation casting some shadows over the Astros’ good start.  There is plenty of time for Walker to turn things around, of course, and to provide some more concrete evidence that Houston’s first base issue has been properly solved.

Astros Notes: Bregman, McCullers, Garcia, Walker

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Astros owner Jim Crane spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) about a handful of topics today, most notably the club’s pursuit of a reunion with longtime third baseman Alex Bregman this winter. Bregman received a widely-reported offer of $156MM of six years from the Astros early in the winter, and Crane indicates that original offer was not altered at any point during Bregman’s free agency. Bregman, of course, went on to sign a three-year deal with the Red Sox that guarantees him $120MM and affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, though deferred money in that contract brings the net present value down to the $90MM range.

Crane’s comments notably conflict with a report back in February that indicated Houston had upped its offer to Bregman from that initial 6/156 figure. As Spring Training approached with Bregman still on the market, there were signals that the sides had resumed discussions as the club toyed with the idea of moving Jose Altuve to left field and Isaac Paredes to second base in order to bring Bregman back into the fold. While Altuve has moved to left field, Paredes remains entrenched at third in the aftermath of Bregman moving on to the Red Sox. After Bregman landed in Boston, the Astros pivoted towards Brendan Rodgers, who will share time with Mauricio Dubon at the keystone this year, to round out their infield mix.

More from Houston…

  • Rome also reports that right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. will make a start for Triple-A Sugar Land on Sunday. It’s a big milestone for the 31-year-old, as he hasn’t thrown in an official game at the major or minor league level since the 2022 World Series after undergoing flexor surgery back in 2023. That layoff of more than two years could come to an end fairly soon if the righty can avoid additional setbacks, as he’s tentatively expected to return in about a month and has to this point been kept off of the 60-day injured list.
  • News regarding the club’s other injured starter, Luis Garcia, is less positive but still at least somewhat encouraging. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that the first opinion Garcia received on his right elbow was “decent news,” though that hasn’t stopped Garcia and the Astros from seeking a second opinion on the matter before deciding on a course of action. The right-hander was shut down last week after he began feeling discomfort in his elbow again while nearing the end of his rehab following Tommy John surgery back in 2023. While it’s unclear how much longer the 28-year-old figures to be out of action, that Espada showed any signs of encouragement would at least suggest that the righty has not yet been recommended for Tommy John surgery, which would wipe out his 2025 season and likely much of the 2026 campaign as well.
  • Rounding out the news with a positive update, first baseman Christian Walker is reportedly “full go” to start the season after dealing with some oblique soreness in the final weeks of Spring Training. As Walker himself told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters, Walker’s oblique issue “wasn’t too aggressive to begin with” and that he’s facing zero limitations as the season begins. Walker was the biggest acquisition of the club’s offseason, signed to a three-year, $60MM deal to replace the lackluster combination of Jose Abreu and Jon Singleton at first base this year for Houston.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Smith, Walker, McCullers

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Earlier this week, Astros manager Joe Espada told the Houston beat that Jose Altuve would play the “majority” of his games in left field. The second-year skipper walked that back a bit on Friday, indicating that the team’s position player mix remains unsettled.

“I’m not committed to Altuve being the everyday left fielder nor any X player being the everyday second baseman,” Espada said (relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “We are exploring all our options here and we’ll make those decisions when we get towards the end of camp.”

Altuve has gotten the bulk of his Spring Training work in left field. That’s likely to continue as the Astros try to build his outfield reps. While Espada’s most recent comments leave the door open for the nine-time All-Star to return to second base, it still seems likely that Altuve will remain the team’s primary left fielder. That’d leave the keystone to Mauricio Dubón. Houston added former Rockies’ Gold Glove winner Brendan Rodgers on a minor league deal. He could also play second base if the Astros want to bounce Dubón around the diamond.

There’s an outside possibility of top prospect Cam Smith factoring into the infield mix before long. Selected 14th overall by the Cubs last summer, Smith went to Houston alongside Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski in the Kyle Tucker blockbuster. Smith has all of 32 professional games under his belt, only five of which have come above High-A. Though he’s likely to begin the season in the minor leagues, the 22-year-old has turned some heads in his first Spring Training. Smith is 7-11 with a pair of homers in exhibition play. He has drawn four walks while striking out just once.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic examined the possibility of Smith breaking camp with the MLB team. Rome notes that the Astros promoted 2023 third-round pick Jake Bloss last June, less than one calendar year from his draft date. (Bloss was traded to Toronto in the Yusei Kikuchi deal a month later.) Bloss, a right-handed pitcher, had started eight games in Double-A and jumped from there to the big leagues. Carrying Smith on the Opening Day roster would be a bolder move, as he has almost no experience facing upper minors pitching.

Smith is a natural third baseman. That’s the position he played at Florida State and where he saw all of his defensive innings in the Chicago system. Rome writes that the Astros would like to get him some work in right field (in addition to third base) in the minor leagues. Houston’s outfield is arguably its biggest weakness. Altuve will probably have some growing pains defensively if the Astros use him as their primary left fielder. Center fielder Jake Meyers is unlikely to provide much offensively. Chas McCormick is looking to rebound from the worst season of his career in right field. If McCormick struggles for a second consecutive year, right field would be a target for midseason upgrade. The Astros would presumably want Smith to have some minor league experience there before considering him a candidate for outfield work at Daikin Park.

At the same time, they’re also facing a potential injury absence on the infield dirt. Christian Walker went for imaging after reporting soreness in his left oblique. Espada provided an encouraging update on Friday, saying that the MRI didn’t reveal any kind of strain (link via McTaggart). The Astros intend to gradually ease him back into game action.

Smith’s path to breaking camp may be conditional on Walker opening the season on the injured list. That’d leave first base to a combination of Jon Singleton and Zach Dezenzo unless the Astros wanted to slide Paredes across the diamond and install Smith at the hot corner. Espada didn’t commit to Walker being ready for Opening Day, but the lack of a strain seems to leave that as a possibility.

Espada provided one other injury update of note. Lance McCullers Jr. got through a live batting practice session this afternoon without issue (via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). The righty is expected to get into game action in the near future. That’ll be a big step for McCullers, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since the 2022 World Series. The Astros have already announced that he’ll begin the season on the injured list as he returns from June ’23 flexor surgery. If McCullers gets into Spring Training action, he could be ready to return from the IL within the first few weeks of the regular season.

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