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Reds Sign Nick Martinez

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Dec. 1: The Reds have formally announced their deal with Martinez. Interestingly, GM Nick Krall tells Reds beat writers that Martinez will come to camp and compete for a job in the rotation — obviously implying that Martinez has not been assured of starting job just yet (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Martinez will make $14MM next season and will have a $12MM salary in 2025 if he doesn’t opt out, MLBTR has learned.

Nov. 30: The Reds are in agreement with Nick Martinez on a two-year, $26MM guarantee, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). The deal allows the right-hander to opt out after the first season. Yusseff Diaz of Pelota Cubana first reported that Martinez, a client of the Boras Corporation, was signing with Cincinnati.

Martinez, 33, has spent the past two seasons in San Diego. After a three-year run at Japan’s highest level, he signed with the Padres during the 2021-22 offseason. Technically a four-year guarantee, the deal afforded Martinez an opt-out chance after each year. He turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 innings in a swing role during the first season and elected to retest free agency.

He parlayed that free agent trip into a new three-year pact with the Friars. Martinez locked in a $10MM salary for this past season, while each side had a two-year option covering the 2024-25 campaigns. He posted a remarkably similar year to his debut campaign as a Padre.

As was the case in 2022, Martinez went into this past season battling for a rotation spot. He took four turns through the rotation while Joe Musgrove was on the injured list in early April. Once Musgrove returned, Martinez moved back into the relief role he had occupied for the majority of the previous season.

He would ultimately appear in 63 contests, starting nine of them. Martinez worked 110 1/3 innings, allowing 3.43 earned runs per nine. He struck out 23% of batters faced behind a solid 12.6% swinging strike percentage. Martinez demonstrated average control and kept the ball on the ground on nearly 54% of batted balls allowed. He excelled at staying off barrels, with opponents making hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) less than 30% of the time. That contact suppression ranked within the top five percent of qualified pitchers, according to Statcast.

Over his two seasons in San Diego, he combined for a 3.45 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate across 216 1/3 frames. At year’s end, both he and the Friars turned down their respective option provisions. San Diego declined to retain him at $16MM annually for the next two seasons, while the player passed on successive $8MM salaries. He ultimately lands between those two price points, securing a $13MM average annual value. The guarantee is in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $25MM. The opt-out affords him the flexibility to again get back to free agency a year from now if he turns in a strong season in Cincinnati.

Whether he decides to retest free agency likely depends on how well he holds up over a full season as a starter. The Friars never quite entrusted him with an extended rotation run. Martinez has started only 19 of his 110 appearances since his return to MLB. There hasn’t been a material difference in his run prevention in either role. Martinez owns a 3.48 ERA in 91 relief outings over the past two seasons; he has allowed 3.41 earned runs per nine as a starter.

As one might expect, he has had better underlying marks when working in shorter stints. Martinez’s strikeout rate is a couple points higher out of the bullpen (23% against 20.9%). He has been much better at avoiding free passes as a reliever, walking 7.1% of batters faced in that role compared to an 11.2% rate from the rotation.

Regardless of the slightly worse peripherals, it’s not outlandish to project Martinez as a viable starting pitcher. He has a far deeper repertoire than the typical reliever, turning to five pitches (sinker, changeup, curveball, cutter, four-seam fastball) with regularity. Martinez was effective this year in the few opportunities he received to turn an opposing lineup over a second or third time. He has held his own in unfavorable platoon situations, keeping left-handed batters to a reasonable .242/.322/.408 line since the start of 2022.

Martinez should get a look in Cincinnati’s Opening Day starting five. The Reds had one of the sport’s least effective rotations, finishing 28th in MLB (ahead of only the A’s and Rockies) with a 5.43 ERA. The rotation’s ineffectiveness was the single biggest reason for the team coming up a little shy of the postseason. Addressing the group was a clear priority for GM Nick Krall and his staff heading into the offseason.

Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott headline the in-house options. Nick Lodolo’s 2023 campaign was wrecked by left leg injuries, but he’ll surely have a rotation spot so long as he’s healthy. Graham Ashcraft projects as the #5 starter after overcoming a disastrous first half to turn in a 2.81 ERA from the All-Star Break onward. Brandon Williamson, who pitched to a 4.46 ERA over 117 innings as a rookie, would be the top depth option. Prospects Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson each made brief big league appearances late in the year.

It’s not a group without talent, but no team can count on its top five or six starters staying healthy for an entire season. Greene and Lodolo have each missed extended chunks of action over the past two years. Abbott and Williamson have yet to play a full season at the MLB level. Martinez doesn’t have an extended track record of starting. The front office could still look for another arm to solidify the group. They’ve been linked to each of Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber on the trade front. Signing Martinez doesn’t necessarily take them out of that market.

Paired with Wednesday afternoon’s signing of reliever Emilio Pagán to a two-year, $16MM deal, this is the most active that Cincinnati has been in free agency for the past few seasons. As reflected on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the Reds hadn’t signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since adding Nick Castellanos on a four-year pact in January 2020. Where ownership sets the spending limit remains to be seen, but there should still be some financial flexibility.

Roster Resource projected the Reds’ 2024 payroll commitments in the $58MM range before the Martinez deal. If the money is evenly distributed — the contract’s specific financial breakdown remains unreported — it’d bring them around $71MM. The club opened the 2023 season with a player payroll approaching $83MM and was well above $100MM in the two preceding seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Sign Emilio Pagan

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Dec. 1: The Reds have now formally announced the signing of Pagan.

Nov. 29: The Reds are reportedly in agreement with free agent reliever Emilio Pagan on a two-year, $16MM guarantee. The deal consists of matching $8MM salaries and allows Pagan, a client of the Ballengee Group, to opt out after next season. It’s a strong deal for the righty, as the contract contains incentives to boost the total further and could allow him to seek a larger contract next winter if he enjoys a good first year in Cincinnati. The agreement is still pending a physical.

Cincinnati relievers combined for a 4.11 ERA that ranked 15th in the Majors and a 4.48 FIP that ranked 23rd in 2023. In general, it’s a thin and unproven group. Closer Alexis Diaz gives the Reds one high-end arm, and lefty Sam Moll proved to be a quietly strong deadline pickup.

Beyond that, the Reds lacked established, healthy arms. Righty Tejay Antone has been one of the game’s top-performing bullpen arms when healthy, but he missed the entire 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and lasted just 5 2/3 innings in 2023 before departing a September game due to elbow discomfort that proved to be season-ending. Lucas Sims posted a stout 3.10 ERA with a strong strikeout rate in 2023 but also walked more than 15% of his opponents. Waiver pickup Ian Gibaut had a nice season (3.33 ERA), but that was the 30-year-old’s first extended run of MLB success.

Adding some stability makes sense, though the 32-year-old Pagan (33 in May) has something of a rollercoaster track record. In seven big league seasons, Pagan has pitched for five teams. At times, he’s looked the part of a bona fide late-inning force, such as his 2019 season when he saved 20 games for the Rays while logging a 2.31 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. At other times, Pagan has been far too hittable and displayed below-average command. From 2020-22 with the Padres and Twins, he logged a combined 4.61 ERA with a walk rate nearly double that of his excellent ’19 campaign.

Most recently, Pagan gave the 2023 Twins 69 1/3 innings of 2.99 ERA ball, fanning a solid 23.8% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate. He averaged nearly 96 mph on his heater and continued career-long trends of inducing both swinging strikes and chases on pitches off the plate at above-average clips. However, Pagan’s rocky 2022 showing in Minnesota pushed him down the bullpen hierarchy; after struggling as a closer and setup man in ’22, he was used in the middle innings and lower-leverage spots this past season.

It’s at least a moderate surprise to see the Reds, in particular, wind up signing Pagan, given that the primary knock against him throughout his career has been a susceptibility to home runs. That doesn’t seem to pair well with Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park, although to Pagan’s credit, he averaged a career-low 0.65 homers per nine frames this past season.

Still, entering the 2023 campaign, Pagan had yielded an average of 1.74 homers per nine innings. Among the 1080 relief pitchers to throw at least 250 career innings since way back in the 1800s, that was the highest rate of any pitcher (hat tip to The Atheltic’s Aaron Gleeman for pointing that out back in 2022). Generally, relievers who give up home runs at such a lofty rate just haven’t stuck around long enough to compile a meaningful number of innings at the MLB level.

The Reds are surely confident in their ability to help Pagan continue his newfound ability to mitigate round-trippers, but if his prior home run tendencies return, his new home confines in Cincinnati would likely only shine a spotlight on that problematic history. If he can keep curtailing the long ball, however, he gives the Reds a hard-throwing righty with late-inning experience who could help serve as a bridge to Diaz at the end of the game. Pagan has fanned 28.1% of his career opponents against a sharp 7% walk rate, and he boasts a very strong 14.1% swinging-strike rate in exactly 400 MLB innings.

In terms of payroll, the Reds will have no problem fitting Pagan (or just about any free agent, for that matter) onto the books. Now that Joey Votto is a free agent, the Reds’ only guaranteed contracts had belonged to Hunter Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile, who’ll earn a combined $6MM in 2024. Add in MLBTR’s projected salaries for their six eligible players — one of whom, Jonathan India, is a trade candidate — and a host of pre-arb names to round out the club, and Roster Resource projects a payroll just south of $59MM after accounting for the Pagan deal. And with Maile on a one-year deal, Pagan and Greene are (at least for now) the only players on guaranteed deals for the 2025 campaign.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Reds had expressed interest in Pagan. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Reds and Pagan had agreed to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the $16MM guarantee and the opt-out possibility. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the even salary breakdown.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

Check out our past episodes!

Reds, Cubs Have Discussed Shane Bieber With Guardians

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Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a year from reaching the open market, and the Guardians have discussed potential trade scenarios involving the 28-year-old righty with the Cubs and Reds, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Other clubs have surely reached out on Bieber’s potential availability as well, and Morosi notes that the Cubs have also inquired on Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s widely known to be available. Cincinnati was also linked to Glasnow just yesterday.

Bieber’s 2023 season was arguably his worst since his 2018 rookie season, though that’s a testament to his overall track record more than an indictment on his ’23 output. Forearm and elbow troubles limited him to 128 innings this past season, but he pitched to a solid 3.80 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound and averaged better than six frames per start.

That said, it’s worth highlighting that Bieber’s status as a former Cy Young winner probably gives him more name recognition and name value among fans than actual trade value among MLB front offices. Solid as his ’23 results were when he was on the active roster, his performance carried plenty of red flags. Bieber’s fastball velocity has steadily declined since that 2020 Cy Young win, and last year’s average of 91.6 mph was nearly three miles slower than during his 2020 peak. Bieber fanned a ridiculous 41.1% of opponents during the pandemic shortened season, but that mark dropped to 33.1% the following year, 25% in 2022 and a below-average 20.1% in 2023.

Bieber’s walk and ground-ball rates remain strong, but neither is quite elite. After posting ridiculous swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 17.1% and 37% in 2020, he checked in below the league average in both last year: 10.5% and 30.6%, respectively. Bieber has never held top-of-the-scale rankings in terms of hard contact allowed, but he’s previously missed so many bats that yielding hard contact at average-ish rates didn’t matter. That’s no longer the case, given the lack of punchouts, and last year saw Bieber post career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%). Those marks are as rough as they sound; Bieber ranked in the second percentile of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity and the third percentile in hard-hit rate.

Be that as it may, Bieber’s broader track record surely buys him some faith from other clubs, and it’s of course eminently possible that some of those red flags are attributable to health troubles that are now hopefully behind him. It’s a deep free-agent class for pitching, but not every club is going to fill its needs via the open market. Bieber still holds clear trade value, even if teams likely all agree that the 2020 version of the one-time ace probably isn’t going to resurface.

For both the Reds and the Cubs, there’s good sense in pursuing Bieber. Cincinnati boasts an exciting crop of young position players and several talented but yet-unproven rotation candidates. Bieber would give them a veteran anchor to pair with the likes of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs have an established top three in the rotation (Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon) but less certainty beyond that veteran trio, with Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks among their still-emerging options.

Adding a steady veteran like Bieber to stabilize things surely holds appeal for either club as they set their sights on a weak NL Central. The Reds, in particular, should have no problem absorbing Bieber’s final year of club control; whereas the Cubs already have more than $178MM in projected payroll, Cincinnati’s 2024 outlay is scarcely more than $50MM right now. Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile are the only guaranteed contracts on the books, and their arbitration class is quite small.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, a trade of Bieber — or at least the discussion of one — should come as no surprise for fans who’ve followed how Cleveland has operated over the years. The Guardians churn out high-end starting pitching arguably better than any club in baseball but never let their top arms reach free agency. Part of the process that has helped Cleveland find continued success despite perennially bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls has been selling high on established starters in exchange for controllable young talent. The team’s unrivaled success in pitching development, paired with those regular influxes of young talent, have kept them competitive in a light AL Central division.

For example, none of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer or Mike Clevinger reached the open market in a Cleveland uniform. Kluber was flipped to the Rangers in a deal netting current closer Emmanuel Clase. Carrasco went to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in return for Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. Bauer brought Franmil Reyes and a Yasiel Puig rental to Cleveland. Clevinger netted several players, headlined by Josh Naylor, pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, infielder Gabriel Arias and righty Cal Quantrill — who was recently traded himself (to the Rockies) on the heels of a down season.

Despite all the star-caliber pitchers who break out in Cleveland, the Guardians have never held onto one long enough to make a qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick. Bieber would be a QO candidate next winter if he stays put, but his age, track record and reasonable $12.2MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to yield greater value than a potential comp pick in what would be the 2025 MLB draft.

Even as they’ve traded away so many arms, the Guardians haven’t ever felt compelled to backfill the rotation via free agency. The last time they signed a free-agent starter to a big league deal was nearly a decade ago when taking a $4MM flier on then bounceback candidate Gavin Floyd. The last multi-year deal they gave to a free-agent starting pitcher was nearly two decades ago: Paul Byrd.

The 2024 season has a good chance to represent a continuation of those trends. Even if Bieber is traded, Cleveland already graduated three top prospects — Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who all hit the ground running as rookies. Triston McKenzie dealt with an ominous elbow injury but finished the season healthy. If he can avoid further issues, he’s shown the ability to be an upper-echelon starter himself (191 innings, 2.96 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate in 2022). In-house names like Cantillo, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis could all vie for the fifth spot in the rotation, and it’s eminently possible that a Bieber trade (or another offseason swap) could net Cleveland a potential rotation candidate to join that group.

Reds Reportedly Pursued Sonny Gray; Interested In Tyler Glasnow

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Right-hander Sonny Gray is reportedly in agreement with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal. Per a report from Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the Reds pursued Gray and were “close” before Gray agreed with the Cards instead. Sheldon adds that the Reds are interested in righty Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who is thought to be on the trading block.

Pitching is in an obvious target area for the Reds this winter, given that they have a surplus of position players. They have enough choices for their lineup that they declined their club option on franchise icon Joey Votto, with president of baseball operations Nick Krall explaining that the club didn’t have the necessary playing time for him. Jonathan India might be in a similar boat, despite having a reputation as a strong clubhouse presence and having won Rookie of the Year back in 2021. Reports have suggested a trade is likely, though Krall has pushed back on that.

Regardless of whether India is available or not, the pitching staff is clearly the place for the club to dedicate some resources, something that Krall has admitted. The talented lineup almost vaulted the Reds into the 2023 postseason, but they ultimately came up just short while deploying an injury-marred and insufficient pitching staff. The club’s hurlers had a collective 4.83 earned run average on the year, which placed them ahead of just five teams in the league. The rotation was a particular problem, as the starters posted a combined 5.43 ERA that was better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

Health was a significant factor there, with many of their young hurlers hitting the injured list. Lefty Nick Lodolo had a strong debut in 2022 but was limited to just seven starts this past year due to a stress reaction in his left tibia. Hunter Greene missed a couple of months due to hip pain and posted a 4.82 ERA in his 22 starts. Graham Ashcraft went to the IL both due to a left calf contusion and a right big toe stress reaction, being limited to 26 starts with a 4.76 ERA.

If all three of them are healthy next year, then that gives the club a solid young core. Lefty Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson should be in the mix after decent rookie seasons in 2023, with Abbott having recorded an ERA of 3.87 in 21 starts while Williamson was at 4.46 in his 23 outings. But Abbott’s 79.9% strand rate was a bit on the high side, leading his 4.20 FIP and 4.33 SIERA to be a bit skeptical of his ERA, whereas Williamson posted his passable results despite a subpar 20% strikeout rate.

There’s clearly lots of talent in that rotation mix but each guy is fairly inexperienced. In 2023, most of them were either injured or putting up tepid results or both. Bolstering this group with an established arm could raise the ceiling while also improving the depth, reducing the chances of them being undercut by injuries yet again in 2024.

It seems they have some funds available for such a pursuit, based on this report. While we don’t have any details on what kind of numbers the Reds were putting in front of Gray or if an official offer was made, the Cards seem to have sealed the deal at $25MM per season. The Reds could have offered a higher average annual value on two years or perhaps offered a four-year deal with a lower AAV, but the fact that they seemed to be in the running suggests that they had some ability to add a contract around that size.

That tracks with the interest in Glasnow as well, since he has one year left on his contract with that exact figure of $25MM. That’s a bargain for a pitcher of Glasnow’s quality, as he has a 3.03 ERA over the last five years, striking out 35% of batters while walking just 7.7% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.2% rate. He wouldn’t really help the injury instability in Cincinnati since he just returned from Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of his 2022. The 120 innings he threw in 2023 are actually a career high, as he’s dealt with various other ailments throughout his career. But he would immediately jump to the top of the rotation in Cincy if they were able to acquire him. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at 12 teams that made sense for Glasnow, with the Reds being one of them.

Whether they can actually get him is another question. The Rays have every intention of continuing to compete and aren’t rebuilding. The only reason Glasnow is considered available is because of his contract and the constant payroll concerns of the Rays. Sheldon adds that the club would be looking for an MLB-ready starter in return.

That makes sense when considering things from the Tampa perspective. In the 2023 season, each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen underwent a significant elbow surgery and those three are set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. That leaves them with Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale in their rotation. Shane Baz should be in the mix but he just missed all of 2023 recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. Taj Bradley had a fairly uninspiring rookie campaign. Zack Littell could play a role but he was just recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation.

There’s plenty of uncertainty there and that’s especially true if Glasnow is removed from the equation. If the Reds were to strike on Glasnow, they would probably have to include one of their own young starters, allowing the Rays to save money but keep their rotation in competitive condition. After the Reds missed the playoffs, Krall spoke to reporters about the club’s lack of activity at last year’s deadline. “I don’t have any regrets not doing anything,” he said. “I still wouldn’t have given up players on our roster for shorter-term assets.”

Glasnow only has one year remaining on his deal, so he would be a short-term asset. Though by acquiring Glasnow in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, there would at least be the chance to recoup a draft pick later by extending the qualifying offer at the end of the 2024 campaign. Perhaps that makes Krall more willing to accept the acquisition cost of getting a short-term asset but it’s also something that the Rays will be factoring into their asking price.

Time will tell whether a Glasnow deal can come together, but even if it doesn’t, it seems the Reds have at least some willingness to add a sizeable contract to their books as a means of upgrading their rotation. Roster Resource estimates their payroll at just $52MM for 2024, as of today. They were at $83MM in 2023 and have been as high as $127MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they add a $25MM contract, they would only be at $77MM, presumably leaving more room for bullpen/bench additions as they look to take another step forward next year.

Reds Sign Reiver Sanmartin, Alex Blandino To Minor League Deals

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The Reds signed left-hander Reiver Sanmartin and infielder Alex Blandino to minor league deals within the last week, according to Cincinnati’s official transactions page.  Sanmartin was assigned to Triple-A Louisville, while Blandino was assigned to Double-A Chattanooga.

Sanmartin was cut loose by the Reds just prior to the non-tender deadline, and he’ll now return to the team while no longer part of the 40-man roster.  It doesn’t seem like he’ll be available for most or even all of the 2024 season after undergoing UCL surgery back in July, if that surgery was indeed a standard Tommy John procedure.  However, Sanmartin’s prognosis improves if he underwent an internal brace procedure, which carries a more fluid but perhaps significantly shorter recovery timeline depending of the nature of the injury.  Should Sanmartin fall within that 6-9 month range for a brace surgery, he might be ready to go for the start of Spring Training.

There wasn’t any mention whether or not Sanmartin’s minor league deal was for one or two years, as the longer deal would’ve hinted at a longer recovery.  Such two-year pacts at either the minor league or Major League levels aren’t uncommon for pitchers recovering from major arm surgeries, as teams get to lock up a player with the acknowledgement that they’ll miss most or all of that first year.  Just earlier today, the Red Sox inked a two-year minor league pact with Wyatt Mills, who had TJ surgery last July.

Sanmartin came to the Reds from the Yankees as part of the Sonny Gray trade in January 2019.  Making his MLB debut in 2021 and then appearing for Cincinnati in each of the last three seasons, Sanmartin has a 5.77 ERA over 82 2/3 innings in the Show, working primarily as a reliever.  With underwhelming walk and strikeout rates, Sanmartin’s 53.5% groundball rate is a highlight, though batters have been fortunate with a .339 BABIP against Sanmartin’s grounder-heavy approach.  The 27-year-old southpaw has had better strikeout and control numbers down on the farm, en route to a 3.39 ERA over 446 career minor league innings.

Blandino is another former Red, as he was selected 29th overall by the team in the 2014 draft and then played all three of his MLB seasons (2018-21) in Cincinnati.  However, a torn ACL and other injuries hampered his time in the big leagues, as Blandino had a penchant for drawing walks but not much else over the course of a .226/.339/.291 slash line in 279 plate appearances.  After the Reds outrighted Blandino following the 2021 season, he spent some time in the minors with the Giants and Mariners, and his only pro experience in 2023 was playing with Team Nicaragua in the World Baseball Classic.

The 31-year-old Blandino has a lot of experience at both middle infield positions and at third base, plus a handful of appearances as a first baseman, corner outfielder, and even four mop-up pitching appearances in blowouts during the 2021 campaign.  This versatility makes him a useful depth option to have on hand in the minors, especially since the Reds’ influx of young star prospects coming to the majors has thinned out the position-player ranks in their farm system.

Central Notes: Reds, Cubs, Baez

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The Reds enjoyed a 2023 season in which they exceeded expectations, spending the summer in the mix for a playoff spot despite ultimately falling just short with an 82-80 record. With a bevy of young infielders led by Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, the club appears poised to potentially take another step forward in 2023. One key area in need of improvement, however, is the pitching staff: Cincinnati’s team ERA of 4.83 was the sixth-worst figure in the majors, and only the A’s and Rockies saw their rotation post a worse ERA than the Reds’ 5.43 figure. That rotation ERA is made all the more glaring by the fact that Reds starters combined for just 787 innings of work this year, 23rd in the majors.

Of course, that body of work from the rotation ignores the injury woes of promising young arms like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, who could combine with fellow youngsters Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips can fill out a rotation that, at least on paper, looks better than this year’s bottom-three production would imply. While it’s certainly feasible that steps forward from young arms and health from Greene and Lodolo could provide Cincinnati with a serviceable rotation in 2024, Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed comments from president of baseball operations Nick Krall today that indicate the Reds will look to add to their rotation this winter, taking advantage of an unusually deep free agent class for pitching.

Per Goldsmith, Krall told reporters that the Reds will look to add “some sort of blend of quality and quantity” to their pitching staff this winter, while noting that the club’s young arms can already provide the club with upside. Krall’s comments particularly seemed to indicate that the club is interested in pitchers who can both pitch out of the rotation and the bullpen as needed. That sort of swing arm is certainly in supply this offseason, with former Reds Michael Lorenzen and Alex Wood joined by the likes of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo, and Jakob Junis among the arms who fit that description. Signing a swing arm could make plenty of sense for a Reds club that has several interesting young arms who figure to get looks in the rotation next year but is nonetheless clearly in need of a veteran presence who can provide reliable innings in the event of injury or under performance from the club’s youngsters.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • The Cubs’ coaching staff has largely been in flux since the club brought in Craig Counsell to take over for David Ross as manager, but Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times reports that at least two of Ross’s coaches will be retaining their positions under Counsell: hitting coach Dustin Kelly and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy. Kelly is the latest in a long line of Cubs hitting coaches in recent years; he became the eighth person to hold the role over the past twelve seasons upon taking the role for the 2023 campaign. Hottovy, meanwhile, is a much longer-tenured part of the Cubs organization. He first joined the organization back in 2014 before being elevated to the role of pitching coach in 2018. Counsell will be the third manager Hottovy serves under, joining both Ross and Joe Maddon.
  • Tigers shortstop Javier Baez is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career in 2023, having slashed a brutal .222/.267/.325 in 547 trips to the plate this year. That was the second-worst offensive performance from a qualified regular in baseball last year by measure of wRC+; Baez’s 61 figure, which was 39% worse than league average, clocked in just barely ahead of former White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson’s 60 wRC+. Brutal as the 2023 season was for Baez, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press relays that Baez is planning to spend much of his offseason stateside this winter rather than return to his home in Puerto Rico, as he typically does after the season comes to an end. During his time stateside, Petzold indicates that Baez plans to focus on strengthening his back and core muscles to recapture the athleticism that allowed him to connect for 86 home runs from 2017-2019, the fourth highest figure among qualified shortstops during that time span. If Baez, 31 next month, can successfully combat father time and recapture the power that carried his offensive profile in his youth, that would provide a massive boost to a Tigers team that finished bottom four in the majors with a team-wide wRC+ of just 89 in 2023.

Reds PBO Nick Krall Downplays Idea Of A Jonathan India Trade

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Because the Reds are loaded with up-and-coming young infield talent, Jonathan India has been seen a logical trade candidate since prior to summer’s trade deadline, and it is widely considered possible or even probable that the former NL Rookie of the Year could be moved this winter.  However, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall threw some cold water on the concept of an India trade when speaking with Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters Friday, saying “I wouldn’t say we are motivated.  If a deal comes around, we have to be open to anything.  But just motivated to move players off your roster just because ’that guy might not fit (a specific spot).’  That doesn’t make any sense.”

Naturally, some gamesmanship could be at work here.  Openly admitting that India was being shopped would do nothing for the Reds’ leverage in trade talks, and it might not play well within the Cincinnati clubhouse since India is a beloved team leader.  Krall’s “open to anything” stance in regards is common within front offices around baseball since you never know when a rival team might unexpectedly make a big offer, yet while he didn’t close the door on India being dealt, Krall also made several logical points about why the Reds would want to retain the second baseman’s services.

For one, it wasn’t long ago that India was seen as a key member of Cincinnati’s rebuild, after capturing NL ROY honors in 2021.  He has since been hampered by hamstring problems in 2022 and then a bout of plantar fasciitis in 2023, limiting him to 222 of a possible 324 games and an uninspiring .246/.333/.394 slash line over 960 plate appearances.  That works out to a 98 wRC+ over the last two seasons, and 1.7 fWAR total when also factoring in India’s subpar defensive numbers at second base.

While the emergence of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand has led to a crowded state in the Cincinnati infield, Krall disagreed with the concept that his team necessarily even has a surplus.

“You look at our club, and I think most guys were injured at some point last year.  So if you have a deep bench of guys that can play every day, that’s not a fault in our roster.  That’s a good thing,” Krall said.  “I would welcome that, to have guys who have experience to be able to play multiple positions, to be able to step into a spot and be a good player….[India is] a first-time arbitration-eligible player; we’ve got him under control for three more seasons.  He fits our club.  He fits our group.”

“If you said, ’Hey, you’ve got guys coming behind him or you’ve got guys that are pushing him out or that he doesn’t have a spot to play,’ that’s one thing.  But he does have a spot to play here.  There are at-bats here.  Are they going to be 650, 700 plate appearances in a season?  No, but that also gives you the ability to give guys days off and keep guys fresh and healthy throughout the course of the year.”

Krall isn’t wrong in extolling the benefits of depth, to say nothing of the fact that Steer (who debuted in 2022) is the only member of the younger group who has any big league experience prior to 2023.  In the event of an injury or even just a sophomore slump from one or two members of the prospect core, and suddenly the Reds might go from a surplus to a bit of a shortage of reliable infield possibilities.  That being said, if depth is what the Reds want, they could also look to add another infielder for more of a clear backup role, while trading India for help elsewhere on the roster.

While India’s fate is yet to be determined, the Reds did part ways with one infielder yesterday when Nick Senzel wasn’t tendered a contract before the Friday evening tender deadline.  Krall told MLB.com’s Joe Trezza and other reporters that the Reds first explored trading Senzel, saying “we talked to a handful of teams and obviously didn’t find the interest to move him.  So we decided this was probably best for our organization, to move on and let him find a place where he can play every day.”

Moreso than the $3MM salary Senzel was projected to earn in arbitration, the Senzel decision ultimately down to a roster crunch.  As Krall put it, “we’ve got seven infielders still on the 40-man.  We looked at where Senzel was and it was a little bit of, ’How does all this work?’ ”

It seems quite likely that Senzel will land a guaranteed contract with another team, and perhaps might yet be a late bloomer with a change of scenery heading into his age-29 season.  Debuting in 2019 as one of baseball’s top prospects, Senzel has a modest .239/.302/.369 slash line over 1366 career plate appearances.  Health problems and a number of positional changes have marked Senzel’s career, which Krall acknowledged in making the tough non-tender choice.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/17/23

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Here’s a rundown of fairly minor players on National League teams who have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month.

All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency without being placed on waivers. They’ll be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 teams. It’s not uncommon to see non-tendered players almost immediately return to their previous organization on a minor league deal.

The transactions:

Latest Moves

Earlier

  • The Reds have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Reiver Sanmartin. Cincinnati also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of Nick Senzel.
  • In addition to Rowdy Tellez and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have non-tendered right-hander J.C. Mejía. He failed a PED test in September, the second such result of his career, and was suspended for 162 games.
  • Former Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. He played in only 16 games after being acquired from the Mariners last offseason.
  • The Cubs non-tendered relievers Ethan Roberts, Brandon Hughes and Codi Heuer. All three are recovering from surgeries.
  • Right-hander Tommy Doyle was non-tendered by the Rockies. Colorado designated him for assignment when acquiring Cal Quantrill this morning.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered catcher Andrew Knizner, first baseman Juan Yepez and starting pitchers Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson. St. Louis reportedly tried to deal Hudson this afternoon but evidently did not find a taker.
  • The Mets have non-tendered relievers Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod and Trevor Gott. New York also cut loose infielder Luis Guillorme and confirmed the reported non-tender of Dan Vogelbach.
  • Left-hander Josh Fleming was non-tendered by the Phillies, the team announced. Philadelphia just snagged the southpaw off waivers from the Rays a few weeks ago.
  • The Marlins have non-tendered catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Garrett Hampson, per a club announcement. Stallings spent two seasons as the primary catcher after being acquired from the Pirates at the 2021-22 offseason. Hampson signed a minor league deal with the Fish last season.
  • The Pirates non-tendered Osvaldo Bido and Hunter Stratton, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Neither had yet been eligible for arbitration. Both right-handers made their big league debuts in 2023; Mackey suggests the Bucs will try to bring them back on minor league pacts.
  • The Nationals announced they’ve non-tendered first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott. Both players were designated for assignment earlier in the week, making this an inevitability.

Reds To Non-Tender Nick Senzel

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The Reds are non-tendering Nick Senzel, tweets Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The former #2 overall pick had posted a farewell message to the organization on Instagram this evening.

Cincinnati selected the Tennessee product with the second pick in the 2016 draft. The right-handed hitter posted strong minor league numbers and was a consensus top prospect preceding his 2019 debut. Senzel never found consistent success against big league pitchers, though. Over parts of five seasons, he owns a .239/.302/.369 batting line.

Senzel spent the 2022 campaign as the Reds primary center fielder. Cincinnati hoped that a move back to his natural third base position would help him find another level offensively. While Senzel started the year hitting well, particularly against left-handed pitching, he encountered a slump in June. He finished the season with a .236/.297/.399 line with 13 homers across 330 MLB plate appearances.

The Reds briefly sent Senzel back to Triple-A in the second half. He finished the year in the majors but always seemed a likely non-tender. The Reds have a number of talented younger infield options, with Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte taking a lot of reps on the left side. That didn’t leave much room for Senzel, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for a $3MM salary if tendered a contract.

A non-tender sends a player directly to free agency without being placed on waivers. The 28-year-old can now explore opportunities with other teams. Senzel’s status as a former top prospect and career .286/.334/.459 line with the platoon advantage could find him a big league deal elsewhere. The Nationals, A’s, Royals, Diamondbacks and Tigers stand out as speculative candidates for a flier on a third baseman.

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