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MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

Reds Select Rece Hinds, Christian Roa, Jacob Hurtubise

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The Reds announced that they have added three players to their 40-man roster ahead of the 5:00 pm CT Rule 5 deadline: outfielder Rece Hinds, right-hander Christian Roa, and outfielder Jacob Hurtubise. Their 40-man is now full.

Hinds, 23, is the Reds’ No. 10 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and most sources agree he’ll be ready to make his big league debut at some point in 2024. In 109 games with Double-A Chattanooga last season, he showed off his power potential, crushing 23 home runs and 58 extra-base hits. He ran well for a slugging outfielder, too, swiping 20 bags and legging out six triples. However, the righty batter also struck out in a third of his plate appearances, so he’ll need to improve his plate discipline if he wants to put his power on display at the major league level.

As for his defense, Hinds made the move from third base to the outfield in 2022, and he seems to have adjusted well. He has spent time in both corners, but his best asset is his powerful arm, so right field seems like the better fit. The Reds have a glut of talented young players all over the diamond, but there is less of a logjam in the outfield, so there should be room for Hinds if he cuts down on the strikeouts and keeps hitting bombs in the minors.

Roa, 24, struggled after his promotion to Triple-A last summer, seeing his strikeout rate fall and his home run rate rise. At the same time, the 2020 second-round pick showed off some phenomenal strikeout stuff in 2023, striking out 33.7% of batters faced in 13 starts at Double-A Chattanooga and 28.6% of batters faced in 15 games (12 starts) at Triple-A Louisville. If he can rein in the walks (16.6% walk rate across Double- and Triple-A), he could make his way to the majors at some point next season. Presumably, he will serve as rotation depth at Triple-A, something the Reds have no shortage of. In addition to Roa, the team has Lyon Richardson, Connor Phillips, Levi Stoudt, and Carson Spiers on the 40-man roster, all of whom made starts for the big league team in 2023 with limited success.

Hurtubise, 25, doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of either Hinds or Roa, but he might have been an appealing target in the Rule 5 Draft following his strong performance in 2023. In 83 games at Double-A, he slashed .306/.453/.492 with a 159 wRC+, and he kept mashing after a mid-August promotion to Triple-A, slashing .390/.537/.460 the rest of the way. While he is surely due for some significant regression, his plate discipline was genuinely impressive, and his speed is the real deal. He is primarily a corner outfielder, but he has experience in center as well, so he profiles as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Reds Seen As Increasingly Likely To Trade Jonathan India

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Reds second baseman Jonathan India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, saw his name pop up on the rumor circuit over the summer and has already been an oft-cited trade candidate in the early stages of the offseason. Recent reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jeff Passan of ESPN do little to quell the belief that the 26-year-old could change hands this winter. Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cincinnati is “expected” to trade India this offseason, while Passan writes this morning that the Reds have been suggesting to potential trade partners that India is the “odd man out” in their glut of infielders.

Indeed, the Reds have an enviable crop of young talent on the dirt. Beyond India, they saw former first-round pick Matt McLain, top prospect Elly De La Cruz and trade acquisitions Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all log time in the big leagues.

McLain was the most impressive of the bunch, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 403 trips to the plate. De La Cruz faded after a hot start but still posted a .235/.300/.410 line with 13 homers and a whopping 35 steals in just 98 games — all while recording intriguing batted-ball metrics per Statcast and showing off his elite speed. Steer, meanwhile, bounced between first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners while delivering a .271/.356/.464 output and 23 homers. Encarnacion-Strand (.270/.328/.477, 13 homers in 241 plate appearances) and Marte (.316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances) saw less time than the others but acquitted themselves nicely in their MLB debuts.

It’s an immensely talented quintet — one with plenty of defensive versatility. It seems likely that Encarnacion-Strand will settle in at first base and designated hitter, and Steer clearly enjoyed success at the plate in a nomadic, jack-of-all-trades role (even if he graded as a below-average defender at all five positions). Each of De La Cruz, Marte and McLain can handle shortstop, third base or second base. De La Cruz saw the most time at shortstop of the bunch but also posted lesser defensive grades than McLain. The Reds can tinker with the exact alignment in spring training, but regardless of who’s manning which position, it’s hard not to be bullish on Cincinnati’s emerging core of young infielders.

Given that wealth of talent, it becomes easier to see how India could be the odd man out. He’s yet to replicate his excellent showing in that aforementioned Rookie of the Year campaign, when he batted .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, 12 steals and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s since turned in a .246/.333/.394 batting line in 960 plate appearances, showing diminished power and a walk rate about three percentage points lower than his rookie mark. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both cast him as a poor defender at his position.

Due to his former draft status (fifth overall in 2018), prospect pedigree and that Rookie of the Year showing, many fans have speculated that India could be used to help the Reds acquire an upgrade for the front portion of their rotation. However, given India’s struggles with the glove and (over the past two seasons) at the plate, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he’d command a strong rotation piece on his own — or even as the headliner in a package also including lesser prospects.

India is entering his first arbitration season, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.7MM in 2024, and remains controllable for another three seasons. Those factors, plus his age, are perhaps the Reds’ strongest selling points in trade talks. That said, India feels more like a buy-low candidate than many onlookers might expect for someone who looked like a Reds building block just two years ago. The absolute dearth of quality infield options on the free agent market will play to the Reds’ benefit in drumming up interest, but it seems unlikely that India will fetch them a major upgrade to the starting rotation.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed India’s potential trade candidacy (among many other topics) on the upcoming episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, and just this past weekend MLBTR’s Nick Deeds took a look at some potential landing spots for India in the event that the Reds ultimately do move him. India placed 11th on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates just yesterday.

Reds Sign P.J. Higgins To Minor League Deal

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The Reds announced Monday that they’ve signed catcher/infielder P.J. Higgins to a minor league contract. The Bledsoe Agency client will receive an invitation to big league camp in spring training.

Higgins, 30, logged Major League time with the Cubs in 2021-22, batting a combined .210/.291/.348 with six home runs, 11 doubles and a triple in 254 trips to the plate. Modest as that production may be, Higgins has spent parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level and clobbered opposing pitchers at that level, posting a .318/.401/.499 slash in 672 overall plate appearances.

Beyond the production at the plate in the upper minors, Higgins has some quiet versatility that could help him eventually win a spot on Cincinnati’s bench. He’s primarily been a catcher in his professional career, but the Cubs have also given him 867 career innings at first base, 584 innings at third base, 93 innings at second base and even 37 frames at shortstop. If he can ultimately deliver anything within a stone’s throw of league-average production at the plate, he could make for an interesting bench player — particularly for a Reds club that carried three catchers for much of the 2023 season (Tyler Stephenson, Luke Maile, Curt Casali).

As things stand, Stephenson and the recently re-signed Maile figure to handle considerable work behind the plate. That said, Stephenson was more productive at the plate when he was playing first base or serving as a designated hitter than when he was catching — and his glovework behind the dish also graded out quite poorly. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Reds again opt for three catchers, with Stephenson spending ample time at first and DH. Higgins could potentially factor into that equation if he impresses next spring. He hasn’t drawn particularly strong defensive grades in limited action in the majors, though Baseball America touted him as at least an average defender at catcher before his MLB debut.

Looking For A Match In A Jonathan India Trade

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The Reds enjoyed a youth movement in 2023 as exciting youngsters like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, and Elly De La Cruz helped to push the club into unexpected contention for much of the season, though they ultimately fell short of playoffs with an 82-80 record. The aforementioned names alongside other youngsters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have created something of an infield logjam for the club when taken together, however. The club’s positional mix has gotten crowded enough that the Reds do not expect to have sufficient at-bats available to allow franchise icon Joey Votto to finish his career in Cincinnati, given the roster’s current construction.

The excess of infield options makes it a no-brainer for the Reds to at least consider dealing from that surplus, and the club seemingly did at least listen on offers for 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, who started the season strong with a .271/.355/.439 slash line through 73 games but battled plantar fasciitis throughout the second half, with a slash line of just .201/.312/.356 in 205 trips to the plate the rest of the way. With India unlikely to move off second base in favor of another position on the diamond and the Reds reportedly interested in acquiring additional infield talent it’s fairly reasonable to expect India to once again be available this offseason, particularly given the club’s dire need for a reliable starting pitcher to pair with Hunter Greene at the front of their rotation.

While it might seem prudent to hold onto India in hopes that a full, healthy campaign from the 26-year-old in 2024 could increase his trade value, the sparse free agent class in terms of middle infield options could make India a more valuable commodity on the open market than he might otherwise seem to be. The likes of Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario headline the current class of free agents up the middle, all of whom India outperformed in 2023 even while battling injuries. What’s more, he could even wind up being more financially affordable than those lesser options, as he’s set to make his first trip through arbitration this offseason with an affordable price tag of just $3.7MM projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Adding three years of cost-controlled production from India certainly appears to be an attractive option when compared to a pricier one-year flier on Anderson or a commitment to Merrifield’s age-35 campaign after three consecutive below-average seasons offensively.

So, which teams could be a fit for the Reds to partner up with on a deal? As previously mentioned, India seems to be more or less locked into his role as a regular second baseman, meaning teams with a clear plan at the keystone for 2024 make little sense as a potential fit. That likely eliminates the Astros, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, A’s, Marlins, Rockies, Mets, Angels and Braves as potential suitors, as each of those clubs have either a clearly established second baseman or a surplus of potential infield options of their own. Meanwhile, the Royals and Pirates are unlikely to give up long-term pitching assets to acquire a player who could wind up blocking options within their own systems. That still leaves nine clubs that could feasibly be interested in India’s services this offseason, however. A look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Dodgers: Among the clear best fits for India is the Dodgers, who were forced to move superstar outfielder Mookie Betts to the infield dirt for much of the 2023 season. While he pulled off a multi-positional role with aplomb, a middle infield acquisition that could allow Betts to return to right field full time while alleviating pressure on an infield mix of Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, and Miguel Vargas would make a lot of sense for LA. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have plenty of interesting pitching prospects and young arms that could entice the Reds, such as Nick Frasso, Landon Knack, and Gavin Stone.
  • Mariners: Seattle is another clear fit for India’s services. The Reds and Mariners have gotten together on several deals in recent years, with Cincinnati sending the likes of Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker out west while recouping key prospects such as Noelvi Marte and Brandon Williamson who helped to accelerate the club’s rebuilding process. A cut-and-dry buy-sell trade doesn’t make sense here anymore with both sides hoping to contend in 2023, but the Mariners have interesting young arms like Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock who the Reds would surely be interested in acquiring. Meanwhile, second base was a problem for the Mariners in 2023, and while the addition of Josh Rojas should help shore up the position it’s easy to see how India could make sense for the club as a potential centerpiece of a deal should they decide to part with one of their young arms.
  • White Sox: Though not the obvious contenders that the other teams in this tier are, the White Sox are perhaps most desperate for middle infield help of any club with utility players Lenyn Sosa and Romy Gonzalez projected as their starting double-play duo in 2024 as things stand. They also boast one of the most enticing pitching trade chips on the market this offseason in right-hander Dylan Cease, who is controllable for the next two seasons and boasts a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the last three seasons with a 30% strikeout rate. While a one-for-one swap of the two players seems implausible given Cease’s front-of-the-rotation potential, India could be an intriguing piece for the sides to build a larger return package around given Chicago’s needs up the middle.

Next Tier Down:

  • Blue Jays: Toronto recently lost both Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield to free agency, creating major holes around the club’s infield. With the club firmly in the midst of their window for contention, a deal for three years of India would help solidify second base for the next three seasons while also allowing the club to focus their financial efforts on either re-signing Chapman or pursuing a left-handed outfield bat like Cody Bellinger. That being said, the Jays have some interesting young infielders such as Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement who they may be interested in giving runway to in 2024, and are in need of pitching depth of their own this offseason. While it’s certainly conceivable that the Reds could have interest in Alek Manoah as a potential change-of-scenery candidate, it’s hard to pinpoint what sort of value Manoah would have in trade this offseason on the heels of an incredible 2022 campaign and a disastrous 2023.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are in a precarious spot this offseason, with the club likely to entertain trade offers both on shortstop Willy Adames in addition to righties Corbin Burnes and Adrian Houser. Burnes, of course, would be an incredible addition to the rotation-needy Reds, while the possible departure of Adames would create a clear near for the club up the middle that could be filled by shifting Brice Turang to shortstop and acquiring India to play second base. While the fit between the two clubs is certainly a sensible one on paper, it seems unlikely that the division rivals would get together on a trade of this sort of magnitude barring the Brewers settling on a full-blown rebuild, at which point acquiring a player already into his arbitration years like India makes little sense.
  • Tigers: While Detroit may appear to be something of an unusual fit for India’s services, the club mustered a second place finish in the AL Central last season, suggesting they could be building toward more success in the coming years. While the Tigers are unlikely to be favorites for the AL Central crown in 2024, India’s three seasons of team control make him a solid fit for the club as a clear upgrade over Zack McKinstry at second base. What’s more, the Tigers have a bevy of interesting young arms from which to deal, from the type of controllable, quality arms that would require a larger package like Tarik Skubal to potentially cheaper options like Matt Manning and perhaps even Alex Faedo.

Longer Shots:

  • Red Sox: The Red Sox have a clear need at second base for the 2024 season, and India could certainly make sense to help plug that hole. Unfortunately for Boston, however, the Reds are unlikely to be interested in dealing for a player from the club’s outfield surplus like Alex Verdugo, and the Red Sox are in need of pitching help themselves this offseason. It’s not impossible to imagine a deal coming together centered around mid-rotation veteran Nick Pivetta or a younger arm like Josh Winckoski, but a hypothetical deal is further complicated by the impending arrival of Marcelo Mayer, who alongside Trevor Story would likely kick India over to DH early in his tenure with Boston, likely hampering his value to the Red Sox.
  • Giants: The Giants have Thairo Estrada as a clearly capable regular at second base already, immediately complicating the fit between the two sides. That being said, San Francisco is in clear need of offense, and adding a young, reliable second baseman like India to the club’s infield mix could allow Estrada to take on a multi-positional role. After all, he has experience at shortstop, third base, and both outfield corners in addition to the keystone. It’s hard to imagine the Giants giving up enough near-term pitching to entice the Reds to make a deal, however, given their own need for arms this offseason.
  • Nationals: The Nationals are in the midst of a protracted rebuild, immediately making them something of a dubious fit for a win-now player in his prime such as India. That being said, with three seasons of team control India would likely still be under control when Washington is ready to contend in the coming years. The club has utilized Luis Garcia at second base in recent years, though India would be an upgrade over Garcia, who has experience at shortstop and could potentially be moved elsewhere on the infield, at the keystone offensively. Washington also has a handful of young arms who could be of interest to the Reds, such as Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray, though it’s unclear if the Nationals would have an appetite for dealing a way a controllable arm at this stage in their rebuild.

D-Backs, Reds, Angels Interested In Jeimer Candelario

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The Angels, Diamondbacks and Reds are among the teams that have expressed early interest in Jeimer Candelario, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Giants are also in the third base mix, per Heyman, although it’s not clear if they’re targeting Candelario specifically.

Arizona is the most straightforward of the three teams. Evan Longoria hit free agency, leaving the Snakes with a third base group headlined by Emmanuel Rivera, Jace Peterson and rookie Jordan Lawlar. The latter is one of the sport’s most talented prospects but has only 30 games above the Double-A level. Neither Rivera nor Peterson bring much to the table offensively, with both having particularly poor second halves.

Candelario would be a clear offensive boost. The switch-hitter combined for a .251/.336/.471 line with 22 home runs in 576 plate appearances between the Nationals and Cubs this year. While a dismal year in 2022 led to a non-tender from the Tigers, Candelario has been an above-average hitter in three of the last four seasons. Going back to 2020, he sports a .254/.329/.437 mark. If Lawlar steps into an everyday role at third base or shortstop (pushing Geraldo Perdomo to the hot corner), Candelario could see action at designated hitter.

That production would also be welcome for the Angels, although their internal options have lengthier track records than do Arizona’s players. The Halos owe Anthony Rendon $114MM over the next three seasons. That could lead the organization to shy away from a notable free agent investment for another third baseman (although Candelario obviously won’t come close to Rendon’s $245MM contract). The Halos have Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo to split time between second and third base, perhaps taking extra at-bats if Rendon again misses time to injury.

Candelario also has experience at first base, where things are a little unsettled for the Halos. Nolan Schanuel held the job for the final couple months of the season. That he managed a .402 on-base percentage against MLB pitching within weeks of being drafted out of Florida Atlantic is remarkable. Yet Schanuel has all of 22 career minor league games and didn’t provide any kind of power in his first big league look. It’s not out of the question he could require additional time against minor league pitching. The Halos’ outlook at DH, of course, is dependent on the Shohei Ohtani decision.

A match with the Reds would likely be conditional on Cincinnati making a trade. The Reds already have an infield glut. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte are all in the corner infield mix. Jonathan India and Matt McLain project as the starting middle infield. Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall cited a lack of playing time at first base as a factor in declining their option on Joey Votto, although the $13MM difference between the option value and the buyout was surely the biggest factor.

Starting pitching is the top priority for the Cincinnati front office. That could be accomplished by dealing away a position player. Speaking in generalities, Krall told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic that the Reds have had conversations about dealing from their talented collection of bats.

Central Notes: Votto, Canha, Montgomery

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The Reds declined their club option on franchise icon Joey Votto yesterday. In a statement from GM Nick Krall yesterday on the move, he emphasized that he didn’t believe that the necessary at-bats would be available to Votto in 2024 for him to remain with the team, seemingly indicating that the odds of the sides getting together on a smaller deal were remote. That being said, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer, neither side is shutting the door on a potential reunion just yet.

“I’m not closing the door on anything,” Krall said (as relayed by Sheldon), “I just think with the players we have on our roster right now, there’s no playing time [for Votto]… It would be tough to have him as just a pinch-hitter bat off the bench with the way our roster is constructed right now.” Krall went on to acknowledge that it will be “tough to watch” if Votto winds up playing in another uniform next year after departing the Reds.

It’s easy to see what Krall means regarding the club’s crunch for roster space on the positional side. Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Noelvi Marte are all big-league ready infielders who ought to be in line for everyday at bats in 2024, meaning that group’s playing time will surely bleed into the outfield and DH slot, where the likes of TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, and Will Benson also figure to play on a regular basis, to say nothing of players like Stuart Fairchild and Nick Senzel who could also be in line for at-bats. Given the club’s excess of positional talent, it’s hard to see where Votto could fit in for Cincinnati barring a hypothetical trade that clears some of the club’s positional logjam.

For Votto’s part, he seems to hold no ill will against the Reds over the decision. “At 40 years old, a team that’s about to be a championship-caliber team didn’t pick up the option of a guy who hit .200 in back-to-back seasons,” Votto told reporters, including Goldsmith. Goldsmith added that Votto, like Krall, did not want to close the door on a potential return to Cincinnati next year despite becoming a free agent for the first time in his career.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke to reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press and Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) yesterday regarding the club’s acquisition of veteran outfielder Mark Canha from the Brewers. During the conference, Harris noted that the addition of Canha checks the box of “adding a right-handed bat that helps [Detroit] on and off the field” in 2024. As Harris alluded to, Canha’s right-handed bat will serve as an excellent complement to an all-lefty outfield of Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Akil Baddoo, and Riley Greene while also affording fellow righty hitter Matt Vierling more opportunities to play at third base. Harris also praised the ability of Canha, 35 in February, to mentor the club’s young roster as a “high-character” player whose calling card is his superlative plate discipline, with strikeout and walk rates that are well above the league average. For Canha’s part, McCosky notes that the veteran praised the team’s young core, saying that “A team is never as far away from where they want to be as it feels like. All it takes is a little nudge.”
  • The White Sox parted ways with longtime shortstop Tim Anderson yesterday, adding shortstop to a list of positions that need to be filled this offseason that already includes right field, catcher, and second base. MLB.com’s Scott Merkin relays that shortstop prospect Colson Montgomery, who is expected to be the club’s long-term solution at short, has his sights set on making the club’s Opening Day roster in 2024. “I’m confident I could have that spot, but you never know,” Montgomery said regarding the Opening Day shortstop job, “As a competitor and as a baseball player, you want to push yourself… I’m going to chase for it.” Montgomery entered the 2023 season as a consensus top-40 prospect in the sport and .287/.456/.484 in 64 games this games this year while advancing to Double-A.

Reds Decline Club Options On Joey Votto, Curt Casali

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The Reds announced that they have declined their club options on first baseman Joey Votto and catcher Curt Casali for the 2024 season.  Votto will receive a $7MM buyout instead of the $20MM he would’ve received in 2024 salary, while Casali will receive a $750K buyout since the Reds turned down their end of a $4MM mutual option.

President of baseball options Nick Krall released a statement in regards to Votto, in a nod to the longtime star’s status in team history: “For 17 seasons, Joey has been the heart of Reds baseball as a Most Valuable Player, All-Star and respected clubhouse leader.  His contributions to our team and his extraordinary generosity toward those in need, throughout our region and beyond, cannot be measured.  At this point of the offseason, based on our current roster and projected plans for 2024, as an organization we cannot commit to the playing time Joey deserves.  He forever will be part of the Reds’ family, and at the appropriate time we will thank and honor him as one of the greatest baseball players of this or any generation.”

A second-round pick for the Reds in the 2002 draft, Votto has spent his entire pro career in the Cincinnati organization, amassing an outstanding resume that includes six All-Star nods and the 2010 NL MVP Award.  Votto’s emergence as a superstar inspired the Reds to sign the first baseman to what is still the largest contract in franchise history — a ten-year, $225MM extension covering the 2014-23 seasons, with that $20MM club option attached for 2024.

As Votto aged and his performance started to dip, it was generally expected that the Reds would buy out the option year, particularly as the team started to cut costs in the wake of the pandemic and entered another mini-rebuild phase.  Votto did return to form with an excellent 2021 season, but shoulder problems impacted his performance and kept him off the field for large portions of both the 2022 and 2023 seasons, as Votto has played in only 156 of a possible 324 games over the last two years.

The Reds’ surplus of young and talented position players also left Votto in something of a crunch for playing time.  Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand might already have the first base and DH positions spoken for in 2024, and if Steer is used at third base or in the corner outfield, Cincinnati might need that open DH spot to find at-bats for any of Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, Tyler Stephenson, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, or Will Benson when those players aren’t in the field.

This roster depth was probably as much of an impediment to a Votto return as the $13MM difference in salary.  Re-signing Votto to a less-expensive contract might not be in the cards for the Reds given how Krall’s statement seemed to carry an air of finality about Votto’s spectacular tenure with the team.  The 40-year-old Votto had floated the idea of retirement in the past, but he stated last month that he wants to play in “at least” the 2024 season and possibly beyond.

Despite Votto’s age, injury history, and modest (95 wRC+) production over the last two seasons, it seems likely that he’ll get that chance to continue his career.  Votto has a great reputation as a clubhouse mentor, and several teams in need of DH or first base help could be interested in seeing what the veteran has left to contribute on the field.  There has already been speculation in Votto’s hometown of Toronto that the Blue Jays might view Votto as a replacement for another left-handed hitting first baseman/DH in Brandon Belt, who is entering free agency.

Casali signed a one-year deal worth $3.25MM in guaranteed money last winter, as the Reds bolstered their catching ranks beyond Stephenson and Luke Maile.  The team’s idea was to give Stephenson a good chunk of time at first base and DH in order to keep him healthy, with Casali and Maile picking up that additional slack behind the plate.  The experiment didn’t really pan out, as Stephenson had an underwhelming year at the plate and Casali didn’t play after July 18 due to a foot contusion that wound up ending his season.

Casali (who turns 35 this week) had only a .490 OPS over 96 plate appearances in 2023.  A veteran of 10 MLB seasons, Casali will enter free agency looking to catch on another team, though he’ll very likely have to settle for a minor league pact.

Reds Re-Sign Tony Santillan To Minors Deal

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The Reds announced earlier this evening that the club has re-signed right-hander Tony Santillan to the a minor-league contract. The deal includes an invitation to Spring Training in 2024. Santillan, 26, was designated for assignment by the club back in August and outrighted back in September.

Santillan, a second-round pick by the Reds in the 2015 draft, began his career in the minor leagues as a full-time starter before converting into more of a swing role in 2021. Upon making his major league debut with Cincinnati that year, he made four starts alongside 22 relief appearances for a total of 43 1/3 innings of work. Santillan’s run prevention numbers were nothing short of excellent during that time, with a 2.91 ERA despite a mediocre 4.62 FIP. The solid performance earned Santillan a spot in the club’s Opening Day bullpen in 2022, though he managed just 19 1/3 innings of work before being sidelined with a low back strain for the remainder of the season, ending the year with a 5.49 ERA and 4.08 FIP.

That back injury carried into the 2023 campaign, leaving Santillan behind on his throwing program as he opened the season on the injured list. Santillan was eventually activated in July, though he ultimately made just three appearances with the Reds this year, throwing 3 1/3 innings with a 2.70 ERA while recording just one strikeout against one walk. Upon his demotion to Louisville, he struggled badly with a 7.88 ERA in 32 innings throughout the rest of the season.

Despite those brutal numbers in the minors to end his season, there’s certainly reason to believe Santillan could be a solid bullpen piece for the club in 2024 given his previous big league success and relative youth. With such a lengthy injury history since making his major league debut, Santillan enters the 2024 campaign as something of an unknown commodity but figures to compete for a spot in the club’s bullpen alongside established relievers like Alexis Diaz, Lucas Sims, and Sam Moll. After a surprisingly competitive 2023 campaign in Cincinnati, the club could look to upgrade their bullpen this offseason after the club’s relief corps posted a middle-of-the-pack 4.11 ERA this past season. Though Santillan’s return is unlikely to move the needle much in terms of impact, it shores up the club’s bullpen depth with a young arm who could be a solid middle reliever if he can recapture his 2021 form.

Reds Claim Bubba Thompson From Royals

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The Royals announced that outfielder Bubba Thompson has been claimed off waivers by the Reds and that left-hander Taylor Hearn cleared waivers and elected free agency.

The Royals have been trying to trim down their roster before the offseason. Players on the 60-day injured list don’t take up a spot on the 40-man, but the IL goes away between the World Series and Spring Training, which can lead to a squeeze. Yesterday, they outrighted catcher Tyler Cropley and lost left-hander Tucker Davidson off waivers to the Orioles. Today’s moves clear a couple more spots but they are still slated to be at 41 once the offseason begins.

Thompson, 25, just came over to the Royals via a waiver claim in August, having previously spent his entire career with the Rangers. He’s a speed-and-defense specialist but his work at the plate isn’t quite as strong. He received 241 plate appearances with the Rangers over the past two seasons but hit just .242/.286/.305 in those. Between the Rangers and Royals organizations, he hit .259/.338/.395 in 302 Triple-A plate appearances this year, a line that translates to a wRC+ of 82. He has had some better results in past minor league seasons, but often with high strikeouts and few walks.

His speed does seem to be elite, however. He racks up double-digits steals with ease, including 31 last year between the majors and minors. On Statcast’s Sprint Speed leaderboard, he trailed only Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr. in 2023. At worst, it seems like Thompson can serve as a speedy fourth outfielder, while any step forward at the plate would only increase his value. He is still optionable, meaning he can be sent to the minors to get regular reps if the Reds so choose.

Hearn, 29, also spent most of his career with the Rangers prior to 2023. He served as a solid swingman in Texas over 2021 and 2022 as the club wasn’t competitive. He tossed a combined 204 1/3 innings over those two campaigns with a 4.89 earned run average. He struggled in 2023, eventually going to Atlanta in a cash deal, then to Kansas City in exchange for infielder Nicky Lopez. He tossed 15 innings on the year between those three clubs with an ERA of 11.40 in that small sample.

The lefty has more than three years of service time, giving him the right to elect free agency rather than accept an outright assignment. His rough 2023 results in the majors obviously limit his appeal, but he was much better in Triple-A. Between the Rangers and Royals, he tossed 54 innings at that level in 2023 with a 3.33 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate, though the 13.4% walk rate is concerning.

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