Eduardo Rodriguez Drawing Widespread Trade Interest
With the trade deadline now just a few days away, Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez is drawing plenty of trade interest. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that scouts from several rival clubs having been keeping an eye on him, with the Rangers, Rays, Reds, Phillies and Diamondbacks among those keeping tabs.
It’s unsurprising that Rodriguez, 30, is garnering attention around the league. He’s been a solid major league starter for many years and is having arguably his best season to date. Coming into this year, he had thrown 947 2/3 innings with a 4.15 earned run average, striking out 23.9% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 41.2% clip. Here in 2023, he has a 2.95 ERA, nudging his strikeout rate to 25.9% and lowering his walk rate to 6%, that latter number being a career best by a full point.
Those numbers would fit great in just about every rotation around the league. What makes his situation unique is his contract. He’s not a rental in a strict sense but will be treated similarly to one. The Tigers signed him to a five-year, $77MM deal going into 2022, but that deal gave him the ability to opt out after the second year. That opt-out opportunity is now just a few months away, when he will have to decide between hanging onto the three years and $49MM left on his contract versus returning to the open market.
The last time he was a free agent, he was coming off a season in which he had a 4.74 ERA and had rejected a qualifying offer. This time, it seems like he will have the ability to return to free agency with a stronger platform year and no QO attached, since players aren’t allowed to receive more than one in their careers. He will be two years older and the underlying numbers of his 2021 season were still strong, but all the factors taken into consideration would seem to point to him having a strong shot of getting past that $49MM guarantee in free agency. The most recent offseason saw mid-rotation pitchers like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon get between $63MM and $72MM, with Rodriguez having an argument for being in that range as well.
With that being the case, it makes sense for the Tigers to consider moving him for talent that can help them in future seasons. Their record is currently 46-55, which only puts them 6.5 games off the lead in the weak AL Central, but FanGraphs only gives them a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs with Baseball Prospectus at 0.3%.
The tricky thing is that, unlike other rental players, there’s more downside for the acquiring club. Although Rodriguez is trending towards opting out, there’s a chance he could experience a downturn in results or suffer an injury that causes him to take the bird in the hand. That’s something that other clubs would have to take into consideration when discussing deals, and it’s possible the Tigers get a lesser return than if Rodriguez were simply in the final year of his contract. The injury question mark is always a factor with pitchers and certainly with Rodriguez, who has only once topped 160 innings in a season.
Complications aside, each of the listed clubs would surely love to have Rodriguez in their rotation for the stretch run. The Rangers have lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries, which has put a couple of dents in their depth. Dane Dunning has stepped up and has an ERA of 3.18 this year, but a 15.4% strikeout rate that casts some doubt on its sustainability. Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney are each having lackluster seasons as well, with their respective ERAs hovering just under 5.00. They are still leading the AL West but the Astros are only two games back, with the Angels also aggressively making a push. They’ve already been connected to starters, with reported interest in Lance Lynn of the White Sox.
The Rays have some strong elements to their rotation with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Zach Eflin in four spots, but Eflin has dealt with persistent knee issues in his career and underwent an MRI on his left knee yesterday. It’s unclear if that will be a serious problem, but they are already without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the rest of the season, with Josh Fleming on the 60-day IL as well. Like the Rangers, they’ve also been connected to Lynn in their pursuit of more starting pitching. They have slipped behind Baltimore in the East but still hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.
The Reds have known for some time to be in the market for pitching, which makes plenty of sense. They were hoping to have their rotation fronted by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo but both have been on the IL for a while now with at least a few more weeks until their expected returns. Other starters like Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are on the IL with them. Luke Weaver is still clinging to a rotation spot despite his 7.20 ERA on the year, leaving plenty of room for an upgrade. They are currently holding a Wild Card spot and are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the Central division.
The Phillies have a solid group of five in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, but their depth has been weakened by the Tommy John surgery of Andrew Painter and the struggles of Bailey Falter. The only member of their current rotation than can be optioned is Sanchez, who has a 2.98 ERA but a 4.06 FIP. But perhaps someone could wind up in the bullpen or they simply use a six-man rotation for a while. They currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the tight NL race.
The Diamondbacks have a top-heavy rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the front. Brandon Pfaadt was one of the top pitching prospects in the league coming into the year but has an 8.81 ERA through his first seven starts. Tommy Henry has a 4.01 ERA but with uninspiring peripherals and a 5.14 FIP. Ryne Nelson’s ERA is is 4.97. General manager Mike Hazen has already admitted the club will pursue pitching upgrades. It remains to be seen how aggressive they will be since they’ve been struggling lately, but they are still just half a game out of the playoff picture.
Tigers’ Jose Cisnero, Chasen Shreve Garnering Trade Interest
Tigers relievers Alex Lange and Jason Foley are the club’s most valuable trade chips in the bullpen, but veterans Jose Cisnero and Chasen Shreve are drawing interest as well, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Both are free agents at season’s end, giving both a good chance to be moved by next Tuesday’s deadline.
Cisnero, a 34-year-old righty, has pitched to a 3.96 ERA in 38 1/3 innings this season and carries a 3.19 ERA in 155 frames dating back to the 2020 season. He’s averaging 96.1 mph on his heater, striking out 25.7% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate, and inducing grounders at a health 45.2% clip in 2023. He’s earning $2,287,500 this season.
Shreve, who turned 33 earlier this month, is sporting a less-appealing 4.82 ERA but has a more appetizing secondary profile. He’s punching out a strong 24.2% of his opponents against a 6.8% walk rate, sports a nice 12.9% swinging-strike rate and has kept the ball on the ground at a 47.7% clip. Fielding-independent metrics (3.89 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA) feel he’s performed far better than that ERA would suggest. Notably, five of the 20 runs Shreve has allowed this year came in one nightmare outing; he has a 3.67 ERA and 31-to-7 K/BB ratio in 27 innings since.
Originally signed to a minor league deal, Shreve is earning a $1.25MM base salary in Detroit, though his contract was an incentive-laden deal and he’s already begun to tap into those bonuses. He’s already triggered a trio of $75K bonuses for reaching 20, 30 and 35 innings pitched, and he’ll unlock another $75K bonus when he hits 40 innings. Shreve’s contract also pays him $100K at 45 and 50 innings and $125K innings at both 55 and 60 innings.
Neither reliever figures to draw a substantial haul of talent on his own, but the 46-55 Tigers figure to be open to dealing either, given their looming free agency. Neither would receive a qualifying offer, and Detroit could use those spots in the bullpen to look at younger arms down the stretch. Speculatively, either could be paired up with one of the Tigers’ other clear-cut trade candidates — Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen — to enhance the return.
McCosky writes that Cisnero and Shreve have thus far generated more trade interest than either Lange or Foley, though that’s surely just due to likely asking price on the latter duo. Both Lange and Foley are under Tigers control through the 2027 season, and while neither can be entirely ruled out as a trade candidate, that remaining club control will naturally lead to a much higher asking price. Be that as it may, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that some clubs could eventually turn to names like Lange and Foley in their quest for bullpen upgrades, given the underwhelming slate of names on this summer’s rental market.
AL Central Notes: Lynn, Guardians, Twins, Turnbull
The two-year, $38MM extension that Lance Lynn signed with the White Sox in July 2021 also contained some partial no-trade protection, allowing Lynn to block deals to 10 teams per year. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 clubs on Lynn’s no-trade list are the Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays. Several of those teams are known be looking for pitching as the deadline approaches, though of Lynn’s 10 listed clubs, only Tampa Bay has been linked to the veteran right-hander to date.
This no-trade clause might not be much of an obstacle, as Rosenthal figures that Lynn would welcome the chance to join a contender. There is also an $18MM club option on Lynn’s services that figures to be bought out (for $1MM) by the Sox or a new team, considering that Lynn has struggled to a 6.18 ERA over 115 innings this season. Though home runs have been Lynn’s biggest issue, Rosenthal argues that joining a better defensive team would help Lynn’s fortunes, and some of his advanced metrics (like a 3.88 SIERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate) suggest that his ERA isn’t reflective of how well he has pitched in 2023.
More from around the AL Central…
- The Guardians are looking for a starting pitcher and a “complementary bat” at the deadline, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said during a recent edition of The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter links). Injuries have thinned out Cleveland’s pitching staff, but offense might still be the bigger need given how inconsistent the Guards’ lineup has been all season. However, Antonetti felt that the Guardians will helped by Bo Naylor getting regular playing time, as well as the revived bats of Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez. “If there’s an opportunity to add another complementary bat that can ideally add some versatility, contribute in the outfield or get some at-bats at DH, that might be a place where we could also look to improve,” Antonetti said.
- Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey shared his own wishlist during his own appearance on the Front Office (Twitter links), as Minnesota is looking at “ways to fortify the middle of” the bullpen, and possibly “more options late in the game.” Falvey also said the Twins would like to add a right-handed hitter to a mostly left-handed lineup, but he praised the contributions of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer (both righty-swingers) to the roster since Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have “struggled at times.”
- Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters that Spencer Turnbull is lined up for rehab starts on Tuesday and Sunday with the Tigers’ high-A affiliate. Turnbull hasn’t pitched since May 6 due to neck discomfort, so he is already eligible to return from the 60-day injured list whenever he is fully ramped up. It has been another tough setback for Turnbull, who missed some of the 2021 season and all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Mike Ivie Passes Away
Former Padres, Giants, Astros, and Tigers first baseman Mike Ivie passed away on Friday, as noted by Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He was 70 years old.
Selected first overall by San Diego in the 1970 MLB draft, Ivie made his MLB debut at just 18 years old in 1971, slashing a phenomenal .471/.526/.471 in a six-game cup of coffee that season. Initially drafted as a catcher, Ivie developed the yips early on in his professional career, an issue that forced him to move to first base shortly after his debut. He spent the next two seasons in the minor leagues before returning to the majors in 1974. From 1975 to 1977, Ivie served as the Padres’ regular first baseman, slashing a roughly league .271/.322/.393.
Following the 1977 campaign, Ivie was traded to San Francisco, where he would have the best seasons of his career. In 1978 and 1979, Ivie stepped to the plate a combined 807 times, slashing a phenomenal .296/.361/.515 that was 41% better than league average at the time by measure of wRC+. Ivie slugged a combined 38 home runs, 32 doubles, and six triples across those two campaigns, and even chipped in eight stolen bases.
Ivie struggled to replicate that strong production in 79 with the Giants during the 1980 season, and was traded to the Houston Astros early on in the 1981 campaign. Continued struggles led Ivie to request his release from the Astros, which was granted early in the 1982 season. He finished his career as a member of the Tigers, for whom he slashed .232/.299/.448 with 14 home runs and 12 doubles in 80 games during the 1982 campaign before retiring from professional baseball in 1983 at the age of 30. Overall, Ivie’s major league career spanned 11 seasons and saw him record 724 hits including 81 home runs in 857 career games. He finished his playing days with an above average career slash line of .269/.324/.421.
MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, former teammates and loved ones.
Central Notes: Cardinals, Twins, Carpenter, Ashby
The Cardinals saw a pair of high-profile players exit today’s loss to the Cubs due to injury today. Catcher Willson Contreras exited the game in the sixth inning with right hip tightness before third baseman Nolan Arenado exited the game in the ninth inning. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Contreras felt some soreness in his hip while blocking pitches early in the game that was then aggravated upon running the bases later on, while Arenado fouled a ball off his lower left leg earlier in the game. While he initially stayed in the game, Arenado’s leg began to stiffen up during a lengthy rain delay later in the game, prompting Arenado’s exit. Per MLB.com’s John Denton, Arenado told reporters that he’ll “be fine” on Sunday, indicating he could return to the lineup without missing time. Denton added that Contreras is listed as day-to-day.
Losing either Contreras or Arenado for significant time would be a major blow to the St. Louis. While the club is in fourth place in a weak NL Central division with an abysmal 44-55 record, the club has performed better of late with a solid 17-13 record in their last thirty games. Both Arenado and Contreras have been key pieces in that success. Since that month of play began, Arenado boasts a strong .288/.336/.586 slash line while Contreras has caught fire to the tune of a .373/.472/.653 line in 21 games. If Contreras ends up missing time, the Cardinals figure to rely on youngster Ivan Herrera behind the plate alongside backup Andrew Knizner.
More from around MLB’s central divisions…
- With Twins infielder Jorge Polanco nearing a return from the injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Polanco would be taking reps at third base during his rehab assignment. The position change, Baldelli explained, is designed to keep second baseman Edouard Julien in the lineup after Polanco’s return. Julien has been a revelation for the Twins in his rookie season, slashing a phenomenal .318/.399/.565 with a wRC+ of 167. With Polanco set to shift to the hot corner, the likes of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer figure to see their playing time reduced upon his return.
- MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter is drawing significant trade interest, but that Detroit is expected to hold onto the lefty slugger. The 25-year-old Carpenter has done nothing but hit since reaching the majors late last season, with a .257/.317/.493 slash line in 312 career plate appearances that’s good for a wRC+ of 125. Carpenter has shown particularly prodigious power, with 17 homers despite only half a season’s worth of trips to the plate. Given his offensive success, it’s hardly a surprise that Morosi notes the Tigers see Carpenter as part of the club’s future. Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Spencer Torkelson are among the other young pieces already in the majors who could be key factors in the club’s eventual return to contention.
- Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby has yet to pitch in the majors this year after undergoing shoulder surgery back in April, but he’s making progress toward a return at some point this season. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relays that Ashby has been on a schedule involving 30-pitch bullpen sessions on Tuesdays and Fridays, and that while there are still hurdles before he can return to game action, he’s expected to head to Arizona next week to continue his rehab. Upon his return, Ashby figures to pitch in out of the bullpen, a role in which he owns a career 3.66 ERA across 39 1/3 innings of work with a 32.5% strikeout rate.
Notable Draft Signings: 7/21/23
The Nationals officially reached agreement on a roughly $9MM deal with the second overall pick this afternoon, while the Red Sox got contracts done with their top two selections. Some other recent notable signings (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):
- The Tigers have a deal with Competitive Balance Round A selection Kevin McGonigle, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter link). He takes home a $2.85MM bonus that beats the $2.31MM associated with the #37 pick. A left-handed hitting infielder from a Pennsylvania high school, McGonigle had been committed to Auburn. He’s regarded as a potential plus hitter, one of the most advanced bats in the high school class. Listed at 5’11”, he’s not the most overtly projectable player. Evaluators suggest there’s a chance he moves from shortstop to second base. McGonigle was viewed as a back of the first round talent by most evaluators and his above-slot bonus reflects that stock.
- The Twins are signing 34th overall pick Charlee Soto for $2.4814MM, Callis reports (on Twitter). That matches the slot value for the Competitive Balance Round A selection. A 6’5″ righty from a Florida high school, Soto ranked between 28th and 41st on the referenced pre-draft lists. He’s credited with a mid-upper 90s fastball and two potential plus secondary offerings in his slider and split. Soto is regarded as one of the higher-variance players in the class because of the demographic risk associated with all high school pitchers and his inconsistent command. He’d been committed to Central Florida but instead gives Minnesota a high-upside developmental flier in the low minors.
- The Rays reached agreement with 19th selection Brayden Taylor on a $3.8801MM bonus on Wednesday, according to Callis (Twitter link). That matches the pick’s slot value. Taylor, a left-handed hitting third baseman from TCU, hit .308/.430/.631 with 23 homers, a lofty 16.8% walk rate and an 18.7% strikeout rate during his final season in Fort Worth. Generally viewed as a top 15 talent in the class, Taylor is seen as one of the safer players available. He’s regarded as a solid defender at third base with excellent strike zone awareness and solid batted ball data.
- The Dodgers agreed to an underslot deal with first-round selection Kendall George on Wednesday, per Callis (on Twitter). He received a $1.85MM bonus that’s below the $2.36MM slot value. Los Angeles’ first pick was dropped 10 spots to 36th because they exceeded the third luxury tax tier in 2022. George, a left-handed hitting outfielder from a Texas high school, had been committed to Arkansas. He’s an elite runner whose speed gives him a chance to be an impact defensive center fielder. George’s offensive profile is built on contact, as he has well below-average power.
Astros, Rays Showing Interest In Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen is one of the top rental starting pitchers who could move between now and the August 1 trade deadline. The Rays and Astros are among the contending clubs that have shown interest in the Tigers’ righty, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).
It stands to reason Tampa Bay and Houston are just two of a number of teams monitoring the market for the Detroit hurler. Lorenzen is having a strong season, working to a 3.49 ERA through 17 starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings to earn a win over the Royals this afternoon and hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past three appearances.
Lorenzen began the season on the injured list after straining his groin in Spring Training. Since returning in the middle of April, he’s been a quality starter for Detroit. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 17 outings. While his 19.1% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, he has kept his walks to a modest 6.5% clip. Lorenzen has negligible platoon splits and mixes four pitches with regularity.
While it’s not the most overpowering profile, the first-time All-Star looks a solid mid-rotation arm for contenders. Tampa Bay and Houston have both made clear they’re surveying the rotation market. The Rays have limited depth behind the front four of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and rookie Taj Bradley. They’ve lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs for the season and been without southpaw Josh Fleming for an extended stretch.
Tampa Bay has been tied to a number of rental starters. Lance Lynn, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Marcus Stroman (the latter of whom has a $21MM player option for next season) are all reportedly on Tampa Bay’s radar. The Rays seem to be casting a wide net as they look to solidify their final rotation spot in their battle for the AL East title.
It’s a similar story in Houston. Luis Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the whole season after recurring forearm issues. José Urquidy has been out since the end of April with shoulder discomfort, though he’s on a rehab stint and expected back soon.
As with the Rays, the Astros have a quality top of the rotation. Framber Valdez headlines a group that also includes Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown. Javier has scuffled of late, which the team has attributed to some fatigue, while Brown is already at 99 1/3 innings after tossing 130 frames last year between the regular season and playoffs. J.P. France and Ronel Blanco have held down the last two spots. Houston general manager Dana Brown has publicly discussed his desire for another arm. The Astros have also been tied to Stroman.
Lorenzen could fit on virtually any contender. He’s playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. Around $2.79MM will remain to be paid out from the deadline onward. Lorenzen tacked on an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark today and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.
If he stays healthy, he’s likely to at least get to the 150-175 inning range. Still, the tab for an acquiring team would only be around $3MM. That’s a reasonable figure for mid-rotation production for the stretch run and into the playoffs.
While that all makes Lorenzen a sensible trade target, it’s not a foregone conclusion Detroit sells. Despite being eight games under .500 with a -77 run differential, the Tigers are only five games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central.
It’s tough to see this Detroit club making a playoff push — only Oakland and Kansas City have scored fewer runs on the season — but the bleakness of the division leaves the door slightly ajar. President of baseball operations Scott Harris implied last week the team could play well enough to avoid a deadline sell-off, although they could strike a middle ground by dealing Lorenzen while holding onto players who are controllable beyond 2023.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- The Angels will consider trade offers on Shohei Ohtani (1:00)
- The Cardinals are shifting their focus to 2024 (6:45)
- Teams like the Tigers and the Red Sox are going to let the on-field results dictate their respective deadline strategies (14:25)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- Do you feel that the Yankees should be sellers? (17:25)
- If the Rangers were to acquire Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger from the Cubs, would that make them the favorite in American League? (21:30)
- What are the Blue Jays going to target at the deadline? (24:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- Top Deadline Trade Candidates, Ohtani Trade Potential and the Slipping Rays – listen here
- Free Agent Power Rankings and Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers – listen here
- The Angels Trade for Infielders, Indecisive NL Central Teams and Aaron Judge’s Toe – listen here
Tigers Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Max Clark
The Tigers announced that they have agreed to terms with first-round pick Max Clark. The club did not announce the signing bonus, but Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reports that it’s $7.7MM, a bit below the $8.34MM slot value for the third overall pick.
Clark, 18, is a left-handed hitting outfielder who was selected out of Franklin Community High School in Franklin, Indiana. He was a consensus top five player in the draft class, with each of Baseball America, ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB.com and Keith Law of The Athletic ranking him either fourth or fifth. In each case, the top three slots were split between Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford, with Clark and Walker Jenkins either #4 or #5.
The Tigers selected third and saw the Pirates take Skenes first and the Nationals grab Crews second. Instead of taking the other consensus top three guy in Langford, they went for Clark, who was generally considered to be a tier below that group. But the $7.7MM bonus he received is basically equivalent to the slot value of the fourth overall pick, perhaps allowing the Tigers to use some of those savings to sign some of the other players they drafted.
The reports on Clark all consider him a well-rounded player with the potential to contribute in all facets of the game. His speed and defense get universal praise, with Clark considered to be capable of playing above-average center field defense but also having a strong enough arm to play any outfield position. His power hitting might be his biggest question mark but he’s thought to be an excellent “pure” hitter with good plate discipline and the ability to hit the balls to all fields.
Harris: Tigers Open To Changing Trade Deadline Plans
The Tigers are currently ten games under .500 with a 40-50 record. Despite that reality, the club is in third place in an exceptionally weak AL Central division, just five games back of the division-leading Twins. The club has managed to look competitive at various points this season, with a 16-11 record in May and, more recently, a 14-13 record since snapping a nine-game skid on June 12th. Detroit has also begun to get healthy in recent weeks, with outfielder Riley Greene, right-hander Matt Manning, and lefties Eduardo Rodriguez and Tarik Skubal each coming off the injured list in recent weeks after an extended absence.
With the club approaching full strength, the division within reach, and stretches of success in the first half, it seems that president of baseball operations Scott Harris isn’t quite ready to throw in the towel on the 2023 campaign. In conversation with 97.1 The Ticket, Harris noted that he remains open to the possibility of avoiding a mid-season sell-off if the team gets hot in the final two weeks ahead of the trade deadline on August 1.
“If we get hot out of the break, it’s going to change our approach to the trade deadline.” Harris said Thursday, “We are going to be responsive to the way the team is playing heading into the deadline and we’re going to try to make the best decisions we can for the organization.”
While that’s hardly a strong declaration of intent, the fact that the Tigers are even considering not selling at the deadline leaves the door open for a major shakeup to the market this trade season. With an unusually small number of clear sellers, the Tigers have found a handful of their players at the center of trade buzz all throughout the season. Indeed, MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates featured each of Michael Lorenzen (#9), Rodriguez (#12), Jose Cisnero (#28), and Alex Lange (#43).
Should Detroit decide to hold onto that group of coveted arms, that could drive up demand for the arms available on other expected sellers, such as Lucas Giolito of the White Sox and Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals. It’s also possible that a dearth of proper sellers could encourage trades of established major league players between contenders to address needs on both teams. While such deals are typically rare, they still happen on occasion; the Harrison Bader for Jordan Montgomery one-for-one swap between St. Louis and the New York one year ago is perhaps the most recent example.
Even if the Tigers decide not to sell at the deadline, it seems unlikely that they would spend significant prospect capital to add a rental bat like Tommy Pham or Cody Bellinger to address the club’s offense, which ranks bottom three in the majors with a wRC+ of just 86. That being said, if Harris and the rest of the front office feel they’re close enough to contention to consider holding onto short-term assets, they could look to improve the club’s offense by pursuing players with club control remaining after the 2023 campaign. Speculatively speaking, Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill or Arizona infielder Josh Rojas could be the sort of multi-year acquisition that could make sense for the club to look into if they decide to pursue a division title in the second half.