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Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/30/20

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Rounding up some minor moves around the game:

  • Royals left-hander Mike Montgomery and right-hander Kevin McCarthy cleared outright waivers and have elected free agency, reports Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter link). Montgomery, 31, was limited to 5.1 innings in 2020 due to a lat injury, derailing his chance of cementing himself in the Kansas City rotation. McCarthy was an oft-used bullpen piece in 2019 but only got into five games last season. Additionally, Kansas City claimed righty Carlos Sanabria off waivers from the Astros, per Flanagan (Twitter link). The 23-year-old reliever performed well in the high minors in 2019 and made his MLB debut in this year.
  • The Twins claimed right-hander Ian Gibaut off waivers from the Rangers, per an announcement from Texas. The 26-year-old pitched to just a 6.57 ERA in 12.1 innings this year but was once a well-regarded relief prospect. He comes with one option year remaining. Fellow Texas righty Luke Farrell cleared outright waivers.
  • The Twins also claimed left-hander Brandon Waddell off waivers from the Pirates, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (Twitter link). Additionally, Pirates’ catchers John Ryan Murphy and Luke Maile, utilityman Kevin Kramer, right-hander Yacksel Rios and outfielder Jason Martin all cleared outright waivers, per an announcement from Pittsburgh.
  • The Mets claimed right-hander Nick Tropeano off waivers from the Pirates, per an announcement from Pittsburgh. The 30-year-old pitched in seven games with a 1.15 ERA for the Pirates in 2020. He’s projected for a salary just under $1MM in arbitration.
  • The Nationals announced they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Steven Fuentes. The 23-year-old pitched to a 2.69 ERA/2.24 FIP in 63.2 Double-A innings in 2019 and would’ve been eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Baseball America ranks Fuentes the #27 prospect in the Washington system.
  • The Cubs announced that they have claimed infielder Max Schrock via waivers from the rival Cardinals. Chicago also outrighted lefty Rex Brothers to Triple-A Iowa. Schrock picked up just 17 plate appearances for St. Louis in 2020 and collected three hits (two singles and a homer). Brothers, 32, threw only 3.1 innings with the Cubs and allowed three earned runs.
  • Speaking of the Cardinals, they announced outright assignments for righty Nabil Crismatt and lefty Ricardo Sanchez. Crismatt was successful for the Cardinals in 2020, notching 8.1 frames of three-run ball with eight strikeouts and one walk. Sanchez had some difficulty across 5.1 innings, though, as he gave up four earned runs and issued five walks.

Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Dustin Garneau, Chase De Jong Elect Free Agency

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Astros Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Dustin Garneau and Chase De Jong have elected free agency after clearing waivers, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic reports.

The most notable addition to the open market here is Osuna, whom the Astros outrighted earlier this week. Osuna has been excellent since he debuted with the Blue Jays in 2015, but he’s forever marred because of a domestic violence suspension in 2018. The Astros still traded for him that year, however, and they did benefit from his on-the-mound presence after that. But the 25-year-old’s future is now uncertain because of a right elbow injury that cost him almost all of 2020 and could force him to undergo Tommy John surgery.

The righty Devenski was a lights-out bullpen workhorse for the Astros in his first two seasons, including during their World Series-winning year in 2017, but the 29-year-old has since fallen on hard times. Not only has Devenski’s production taken a severe turn for the worse, but he threw only 3 2/3 innings in 2020 and is just over a month removed from undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow. He’s not expected to recover from that procedure until sometime in the winter.

The well-traveled Garneau, 33, signed with the Astros last winter and ended up seeing time as their backup catcher. Garneau hit a meager .158/.273/.289 with one home run in 46 plate appearances, though.

De Jong began the year in independent ball before the Astros acquired him from the Sugarland Skeeters on Aug. 3. That move didn’t prove successful for Houston, as the right-handed De Jong went on to allow a whopping 12 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings.

Astros Place Roberto Osuna On Outright Waivers

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The Astros have placed right-hander Roberto Osuna on outright waivers, reports Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (Twitter link). The right-hander missed most of the 2020 season with an elbow injury and was initially recommended to undergo Tommy John surgery, although a second opinion caused him to attempt to rehab the injury without surgery. Osuna was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to repeat his $10MM salary in his final trip through arbitration, and his salary and injury have made an obvious non-tender candidate. That’s what this move effectively boils down to.

Given Osuna’s injury, projected salary and prior suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy, it’s all but a lock that he’ll clear waivers and become a free agent.

Still just 25 years of age, Osuna pitched only 4 1/3 innings in 2020 before landing on the injured list with what proved to be a season-ending elbow ailment. He’s been consistently excellent every season he’s been on the mound — career 2.74 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 — but Osuna also served 75-game suspension in 2018 after his girlfriend filed domestic violence charges against him. Osuna eventually agreed to a peace bond in Canada, which resulted in the charges being dropped.

Per the Canadian Department of Justice’s web site, peace bonds are generally used when “an individual (the defendant) appears likely to commit a criminal offence, but there are no reasonable grounds to believe that an offence has actually been committed.” The Canadian Department of Justice further specifies  that peace bonds are obtainable by “any person who fears that another person may injure them, their spouse or common-law partner, or a child, or may damage their property.”

All of that will be factored into any future negotiations between Osuna and a new team once he reaches the market, although Osuna’s own track record shows that teams will look past allegations of abuse and assault in order to acquire a productive Major Leaguer. The Astros embarrassingly walked back their own “zero tolerance” policy for domestic abuse in order to acquire Osuna at a lower cost in the middle of his suspension, and we’ve seen other teams pay premium prices to sign players who’ve served suspensions under the domestic violence policy (most notably the Yankees with Aroldis Chapman).

The most immediate determining factor in Osuna’s next destination will be the health of his right elbow (or lack thereof). He began a throwing program about a month after initially being shut down, but he’ll have a ways to go before he’s ready to rejoin a bullpen.

Brett Phillips, The Rays’ Thrice-Traded Hero

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Despite the new August 31 date and all the uncertainty about how player movement would be impacted by the circumstances of the pandemic-shortened season, the lead-up to the 2020 trade deadline went more or less the same as deadlines past.  Some big names switched uniforms, non-contenders looked to dump salary and add prospects, and just about as always, one unheralded trade ended up paying big dividends in October.

On August 27, the Rays made a move to shore up their bench depth by acquiring Brett Phillips from the Royals in exchange for infield prospect Lucius Fox.  It was one of several seemingly minor swaps Tampa Bay made prior to the August 31 deadline, and while the Rays were already coasting towards a postseason spot by that point, the argument could have been made that a bigger move was necessary to boost their chances at a championship.

Little did we know, the Phillips trade was that move.  Phillips’ ninth-inning RBI single last night started a wild, game-deciding sequence and an 8-7 comeback victory for Tampa in Game 4 of the World Series.  After entering the game as a pinch-runner in the previous inning, Phillips’ first plate appearance since October 7 resulted in his entry into instant legend status in Rays history.

Not bad for a player who was primarily seen as a defensive and pinch-running specialist at the time of his acquisition.  In fact, it’s not bad for a 26-year-old player playing for his fourth different organization, which is perhaps why Phillips was such an unlikely candidate to deliver the Rays’ biggest hit.

Originally a sixth-round pick for the Astros in the 2012 draft, Phillips began to turn heads after a very impressive 2014 season at the A-ball and high-A levels.  He continued to produce into 2015, and while this breakout might have made him into a building block for the rebuilding Astros if it had happened a bit earlier in Phillips’ career, by 2015 the Astros were looking to win.  As such, Houston made a major trade deadline swap with the Brewers that sent Phillips, Josh Hader, Domingo Santana, and Adrian Houser to Milwaukee in exchange for Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, and $287,500 in international bonus pool money.

The Astros went on to reach the postseason that year, falling to the Royals in the ALDS, yet the aftershocks of this trade continue to reverberate around baseball.  Gomez ended up being something of a disappointment for Houston that year, though Fiers went on to become a solid member of the Astros’ rotation through their 2017 World Series-winning season and then…well, you know the rest.  On Milwaukee’s end of the deal, Hader developed into one of the game’s best relief aces, Hauser has emerged as an intriguing starter, and Santana delivered some solid production over 351 games for the Brew Crew before he was traded to the Mariners in the 2018-19 offseason.

The one weak link of the Brewers’ trade return, however, was Phillips.  There was no doubt that Phillips had MLB-caliber speed and glovework, except after a promising .799 OPS over 98 plate appearances in 2017, he struggled badly the next season and found himself on the move again.

This time, Phillips was headed to Kansas City (along with right-hander Jorge Lopez) in another deadline deal, as Milwaukee picked up Mike Moustakas for the pennant race.  The Moose was a key part of a Brewers team that came within a game of the 2018 NL pennant, and the Brew Crew reached the playoffs again in 2019 thanks in large part to Moustakas’ All-Star season.  For Phillips, he found himself on another rebuilding team with another opportunity at a fresh start, yet he again couldn’t capitalize — Phillips hit .178/.256/.308 over 236 PA spanning three seasons with the Royals.

As a player who relied on doubles and triples rather than homers, Phillips wasn’t quite a “three true outcomes” player in the minors, though he used a keen batting eye to counter-act his strikeouts and generate a career .274/.362/.478 slash line over 3174 PA.  The problem is, Major League pitchers have feasted on those holes in Phillips’ swing, as he has struck out 133 times in his 383 plate appearances at the big league level.

Phillips’ trade history is indicative of his declining prospect stock, as he went from a headline piece of a blockbuster deal to last August’s swap that didn’t generate many headlines.  Not many headlines, that is, until last night.  While Phillips’ first two trades carried so much import for other teams and players involved, it wasn’t until his third time changing uniforms that Phillips himself now stands as the most important part of a trade.  Phillips is still only 26, and given the Rays’ penchant for finding hidden gems, perhaps last night’s heroics will only raise the curtain on a big second act of Phillips’ Major League career.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Astros Give Michael Brantley A Qualifying Offer?

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The World Series will come to an end next week, meaning teams will soon have to decide whether to tag their impending free agents with the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. If a team makes a player a QO which that player rejects, the team will be entitled to some form of draft compensation if the player departs in free agency.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently ran down the qualifying offer outlook for both position players and pitchers. As is the case every year, some players are candidates to receive a QO but might plausibly accept if offered. One such player is Astros outfielder Michael Brantley.

One of the sport’s most consistently productive hitters over his tenure in Cleveland, Brantley reached free agency following the 2018 season. Surprisingly, the Indians elected not to make him a qualifying offer, forgoing the opportunity to receive compensation if he signed elsewhere. Brantley did just that, inking a two-year, $32MM contract with Houston.

Brantley continued to perform over the course of that deal. In 824 plate appearances as an Astro, he’s put up a robust .309/.370/.497 slash line (134 wRC+). He remains one of the league’s tougher batters to strike out and his all-fields approach has helped him sustain strong batting averages on balls in play. Brantley doesn’t put up eye-popping peak exit velocities, but he’s been remarkably adept at avoiding weak contact and mishits.

On the other hand, Brantley’s 33 years old (34 in May) and limited to left field and/or designated hitter. He’ll need to continue to hit at an extremely high level to remain a valuable player. The left-handed hitter holds his own against southpaws but is hardly elite in that regard (career .275/.331/.373 line against LHP). In a market rife with uncertainty (and perhaps flooded with alternatives from non-tenders), the earning power of players like Brantley could be limited.

The Astros’ payroll might be an issue, as well. Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and José Altuve each have sizable contracts on the books already, and there are a few notable arbitration raises to consider. Potentially losing all of George Springer (who’s a slam dunk QO decision), Brantley and Josh Reddick to free agency, the Houston front office will have to address the outfield in some form this offseason. They just might choose to do so more cheaply than by making an $18.9MM offer to Brantley.

Turning it over to MLBTR readers, how should GM James Click proceed?

(poll link for app users)

Josh James Out 6-8 Months After Undergoing Hip Surgery

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Astros reliever Josh James underwent surgery to repair a labral tear in his left hip, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). The recovery period for James is expected to be somewhere from 6 to 8 months, which means he is likely to miss the beginning of 2021.

The Astros have hoped James would take a step forward in his development for a couple of seasons now, but he struggled more than ever in 2020, particularly with his command. He remained a big piece of the bullpen into the postseason, however, when manager Dusty Baker called his number once in the ALDS and twice in the ALCS against the Rays. James managed two scoreless innings in the middle performance, but he was hit with a blown save in each of his other two outings. He gave up 4 earned runs on 5 hits (2 home runs) in 4 innings total.

During the regular season, James saw game action 13 times, including two starts, logging a 7.27 ERA/7.06 FIP across 17 1/3 innings with 10.9 K/9 to 8.8 BB/9. His four-seamer was down a tick to an average of 96.3 mph, though it wasn’t far enough off his career norms to cause concern for the 27-year-old.

Jeff Luhnow On Suspension, Future

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TODAY: In a response to Luhnow’s interview, “people with knowledge of Major League Baseball’s findings during the Astros sign-stealing investigation” tell The Athletic’s Evan Drellich that “there was direct testimony” from Astros personnel interviewed during the league’s inquiries “that Luhnow was aware of the sign-stealing scheme.”

“Luhnow received emails that put him on notice of the activity, but claims he only read parts of the emails even though he responded to the emails,” a source tells Drellich.  “One witness clearly stated and provided evidence that Luhnow knew, and others identified facts indicating that Luhnow knew. The best interpretation of the evidence is that Luhnow either knew exactly what the video room was doing, or knew generally what they were doing and willfully chose to keep himself in the dark.”

TUESDAY: Former Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow had a years-long run as one of baseball’s most respected executives, even building a World Series-winning team in 2017. However, the legitimacy of the team’s success under Luhnow has come into question over the past year because of the Astros’ well-documented sign-stealing scandal that became public last offseason. Major League Baseball suspended Luhnow and A.J. Hinch, then the Astros’ manager, for a year apiece in January as a result of the team’s misdeeds. Houston subsequently fired the pair.

In an extensive interview with Vanessa Richardson of KPRC, Luhnow continued to deny any wrongdoing. Consequently, Luhnow doesn’t believe Major League Baseball was right to issue him a one-year ban.

A report from last February indicated Luhnow was aware of “Codebreaker,” a video scheme the Astros utilized to steal signs, but Luhnow told Richardson: “I didn’t know we were cheating. I had no idea. I wasn’t involved. Major League Baseball’s report stated that I didn’t know anything about the trash can banging scheme. They stated I might have known something about the video decoding scheme and not paid it much attention. But there was really no credible evidence of that claim. I didn’t know. I didn’t know about either of them. And it felt like, on that day, that I was getting punished for something that I didn’t do. And it didn’t feel right.”

Luhnow claims he was adamant that the Astros followed the rules, that “personnel in the video room” were among the “Codebreaker” masterminds, and that he tried to crack down on sign-stealing from Houston and other teams. He’s even of the belief that some of the perpetrators are still part of the Astros organization.

“The people who were involved, that didn’t leave naturally to go to other teams, are all still employed by the Astros,” Luhnow said. “In fact, one of the people who was intimately involved, I had demoted from a position in the clubhouse to a position somewhere else, and after I was fired, he was promoted back into the clubhouse.”

While Luhnow did acknowledge that the Astros violated the rules during his reign, he’s nonetheless displeased that commissioner Rob Manfred suspended him. The executive said he requested a meeting with Manfred last offseason and presented him a roughly 150-page binder “with facts, with emails, with documents, with testimony, each and every single allegation that was in that charging document.” Luhnow even offered to take a polygraph test in an effort to prove his innocence, but Manfred turned him down.

“I don’t know how much of the 150-page binder he read, but none of it made its way into the final report, so frankly, he had his mind made up,” Luhnow said. “He was going to punish me. There was nowhere else to go. He was going to punish A.J. as well, and A.J. admitted that he knew.”

Manfred disputed Luhnow’s comments Tuesday, though, telling ESPN Radio (via ESPN.com) that “[Luhnow] damaged the game, and as a result, he was disciplined.”

As for Hinch, Luhnow revealed that the two continue to keep in touch. The Tigers and White Sox have shown interest in Hinch this month regarding their managerial vacancies, so he could get back in the game in a prominent role sometime soon. Luhnow also has interest in reviving his baseball career, but if he doesn’t return to the sport, he expects to land on his feet elsewhere.

Luhnow has taken “a hard look at the NFL, at the NBA, little bit at NHL, I didn’t grow up around hockey so that one’s a little tougher, E-Sports, soccer, both in our continent and in Europe,” because he believes his skill set would carry over into a different sport.

Astros Hold Club Option On Brooks Raley

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The Astros’ acquisition of Brooks Raley over the summer appeared to be a mostly straightforward trade bringing a journeyman lefty to a beleaguered bullpen in exchange for a player to be named later. The 32-year-old Raley had less than a year of service time in the Majors, so it seemed as though if he stuck with the club, he’d be an affordable, pre-arbitration player moving forward. That’s not quite the case, as The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan reports that the minor league contract Raley signed with the Reds over the winter actually contains a $2MM club option for the 2021 season and allows him to become a free agent thereafter.

Raley, 32, went seven years between big league appearances, pitching for the Cubs back in 2013 and then falling off the big league radar until he was selected to the Reds’ roster early this season. He split the 2014 season between the Triple-A affiliates for the Twins and Angels and did enough to attract some interest from the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization. Raley capitalized on that first KBO opportunity, turning in 179 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in his first season — an effort which he parlayed into a successful five-year run in the KBO.

Raley didn’t impress Major League clubs enough to score the type of multi-year arrangement Josh Lindblom landed to return to the big leagues and instead took a non-guaranteed pact with the Reds. But while Cincinnati quickly moved on from Raley after just four innings, the Astros saw something they liked enough to part with a PTBNL in a seemingly minor swap. The lefty rewarded their show of faith with a 21-to-4 K/BB ratio and a 3.94 ERA over 16 frames out of the Houston bullpen. He went on to pitch in six postseason games, holding opponents to a pair of runs on four hits and five walks with nine punchouts in 5 2/3 innings.

All told, Raley pitched 21 2/3 innings with the ’Stros between the regular season and the playoffs. In that time he worked to a 3.74 ERA with 30 strikeouts against nine walks. As Kaplan notes in his column, Raley’s performance makes the club’s decision on that $2MM option a pretty simple “yes” — particularly when looking at the glut of unproven rookies on which they were forced to rely in 2020.

Looking ahead, if Raley can maintain his strong showing over the course of a full season in 2021, he’d position himself for a much more lucrative free-agent deal in the 2021-22 offseason. He’d be heading into his age-34 campaign, so a multi-year pact is plenty feasible. At present, there’s a pretty thin class of lefty relievers projected to reach the open market that offseason, headlined by Andrew Miller (who’ll be heading into his age-37 season) and also including Alex Claudio and Adam Morgan. There will surely be some one-year deals this winter that add to that group, and some names could take unorthodox paths to reaching the market, as we’re currently seeing with Raley.

Bigger Contract: George Springer Or J.T. Realmuto?

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Barring extensions over the next couple of weeks, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and Astros outfielder George Springer will enter free agency as the two best position players on the open market. Realmuto is by far the premier catcher slated to reach free agency, where other options such as James McCann (White Sox) and Yadier Molina (Cardinals) will pale in comparison. Likewise, Springer’s easily the top center field-capable player who could soon become available. The question now is whether Realmuto or Springer will make more on his next contract.

Realmuto, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who has been the majors’ most valuable catcher since 2017, has an opportunity to set a record in terms of annual earnings at his position. Former Twin Joe Mauer holds the record at eight years and $184MM on the extension he signed in 2010. Realmuto doesn’t seem to stand much chance of eclipsing Mauer’s total guarantee, but the $23MM per annum the ex-Minnesota standout raked in appears to be a realistic target.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Springer earn a similar amount on a yearly basis. Although he is older than Realmuto (31), Springer has been a star-level performer since his career began in 2014. And dating back to last season, Springer has slashed .284/.376/.576 with 53 home runs. He ranks seventh among qualified hitters in wRC+ (153) and ninth in fWAR (8.4) since 2019.

Unlike Realmuto, Springer probably isn’t going to set any kind of record for earning power at his position. However, that doesn’t mean Springer won’t out-earn Realmuto on a five- or six-year deal (which MLBTR expects the two to receive). Both players will be saddled with qualifying offers, but that shouldn’t dim teams’ enthusiasm if and when they hit the market. Which player do you think will wind up with a higher guarantee on his next pact?

(Poll link for app users)

 

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