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Royals, Mariners Have Shown Trade Interest In Tyler O’Neill

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The Cardinals have been exploring trade scenarios involving outfielder Tyler O’Neill —  president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged as much at this week’s Winter Meetings — and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the Royals and Mariners are two of the several teams who’ve spoken to the Cards about the 28-year-old O’Neill.

A two-time Gold Glove winner in left field, O’Neill had a monster 2021 season that netted him an eighth-place finish in National League MVP voting but has battled injuries throughout his career. He slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs. He walked at a below-average 7.1% clip and fanned at a lofty 31.3% rate, but it was an undeniably excellent campaign all around. The two seasons since have been decidedly less than that.

From 2022-23, O’Neill has appeared in just 168 games and totaled 649 plate appearances with a .229/.310/.397 slash. Along the way, he’s dealt with shoulder, hamstring, foot and back injuries. Staying on the field has been a problem throughout his big league tenure;  since making his MLB debut back in 2018, O’Neill has been placed on the injured list on 12 different occasions, owing to a wide variety of ailments. He’s controlled for just one more year before becoming a free agent, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects O’Neill to earn a reasonable $5.5MM salary this coming season.

The Cardinals have been seeking bullpen help on the trade market, and it stands to reason that even one year of O’Neill could land them that. Goold notes that they’re also open to packaging him in a larger deal to acquire a front-end rotation upgrade, though such a deal would be far harder to orchestrate. Excellent as O’Neill was in 2021, that was two years ago, and he’s now a one-year bounceback rental. He wouldn’t be a prominent factor in any package for a high-end starter.

As for the two reported suitors, both make some degree of sense. The Mariners could use a right-handed bat to replace free agent Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez, whom they traded to the Diamondbacks earlier in the offseason. Whether O’Neill fits the Mariners’ stated preference of adding more contact to the lineup, however, is an open question. He fanned at 25.2% clip last year — far lower than the 30%-plus marks posted by both Suarez and Hernandez. However, O’Neill whiffed in more than 31% of his plate appearances in his best season and has a career 30% mark.

That said, Seattle’s interest is only natural, considering the Mariners are the team that selected him in the third round of the 2013 draft. That predates president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s time with the team — and it was Dipoto who traded O’Neill to St. Louis in exchange for Marco Gonzales — but there are some longtime holdovers who surely still view O’Neill in a favorable light.

In reporting on the Mariners’ interest in Jorge Soler this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested that the M’s might want to spread their remaining financial resources out among multiple targets. O’Neill would allow them to do that more than Soler, who’ll likely command a salary two to three times as large as O’Neill in free agency. Then again, it’s also possible the M’s could sign Soler to DH and acquire O’Neill to play left field in place of Jarred Kelenic, who was traded to the Braves earlier in the week. The Mariners’ payroll projection right now checks in under $120MM, and Dipoto has spoken on record about how payroll can increase over last year’s $140MM mark.

As for the Royals, they’re lacking in the way of any established big league outfielders. Royals outfielders combined for a lowly .228/.294/.393 batting line in 2023, with the resulting 84 wRC+ ranking 29th in the Majors. O’Neill fits the Royals’ longstanding preference for premium defensive players, and the upside of his 2021 season at the plate is the type of production that the budget-conscious Royals typically can’t afford to pursue in free agency.

At present, the Royals’ outfield mix consists of MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares and Nelson Velazquez. The latter of that quintet surely earned a full look in 2024 with a huge power showing following his acquisition from the Cubs at last year’s deadline, and Melendez has long been one of the organization’s top prospects. None from that bunch has had any sustained MLB success, however, and Melendez — also a catcher — grades out quite poorly from a defensive standpoint.

The Royals are known to be in the market for rotation help, but general manager J.J. Picollo also said earlier in the offseason that a bat who could hit somewhere from third to sixth in the middle of his order would be nice to add. A healthy O’Neill is absolutely that type of bat, and his projected salary fits comfortably within the $30MM+ that Picollo acknowledged he has to spend this winter.

Cardinals Notes: Molina, O’Neill, Burleson

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The Cardinals announced this afternoon that longtime catcher Yadier Molina has returned to the organization as a special assistant to President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak. Following the announcement, Mozeliak spoke with reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) regarding Molina’s role in the organization. Mozeliak suggested that Molina will spend time as a uniformed member of the Cardinals dugout this coming season, though that won’t be his full-time role. While Molina will spend time with the club’s minor league affiliates his main focus will be working with the big league club’s players and coaching staff.

The news comes after a lengthy period of speculation earlier this offseason that Molina would be returning to St. Louis in some capacity, including suggestions that Molina could join manager Oliver Marmol’s coaching staff as bench coach. The #2 job in the dugout eventually went to former Cardinals infielder Daniel Descalso, leading Molina to rejoin the Cardinals in his current role. Molina has been candid in recent years about his hopes of becoming a big league manager at some point, and his return to the Cardinals organization just one year after his retirement from playing is sure to spur speculation regarding the future of Marmol, who the team has not engaged in extension talks with prior to the final year of his current contract.

Looking beyond the club’s reunion with Molina, the club’s willingness to move outfielder Tyler O’Neill has been well-documented this offseason, with Mozeliak previously indicating that the club hopes to bolster its bullpen in return for O’Neill’s services. Ben Fredrickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested in a live chat with readers yesterday that the Royals are among the teams with interest in O’Neill this offseason. While it might register as a surprise that the Royals would be interested in a rental player coming off a 101-loss season in 2023, the club’s outfielders slashed a pathetic .229/.293/.392 last season, leaving them with an 82 wRC+ that registered as the worst among all major league clubs.

Given that dearth of production, the Royals are perhaps better situated than most clubs to roll the dice on O’Neill, a 28-year-old slugger who flashed elite power and defense during a 2021 campaign that saw him slash .286/.352/.560 in 537 trips to the plate while finishing in the top ten of NL MVP voting. Unfortunately for both O’Neill and the Cardinals, things have taken a turn for the worse since then. Injuries and under-performance have plagued O’Neill the past two seasons, as the slugger has slashed a mediocre .229/.310/.397 (98 wRC+) in just 168 games over the past two seasons.

O’Neill is something of an odd trade candidate thanks to his combination of youth, upside, limited team control and recent struggles. It’s easy to see why Kansas City may be particularly interested in his services, however. O’Neill could be offered consistent playing time on the lowly Royals next season, with Kansas City able to offer the struggling slugger plenty of runway to re-establish himself as a quality bat. If O’Neill is successful in doing so, he could be a valuable asset for the club to flip at the trade deadline next summer in the event the Royals find themselves out of the race by midseason.

O’Neill isn’t the only Cardinals outfielder who could be on the trade block this offseason, as Mozeliak spoke to reporters (including John Denton of MLB.com) about the future of young outfielder Alec Burleson, who has reportedly drawn trade interest in recent days. Mozeliak seemed to be more reluctant to part with Burleson than O’Neill, saying that the club “definitely like[s]” Burleson and that they “think there’s a spot for him” on the club’s 2024 roster. That said, Mozeliak acknowledged the fact that regular playing time is unlikely to be available for Burleson as things currently stand, noting that “something else might have to happen first” in order for Burleson to get everyday at bats next season. Burleson struggled in 347 trips to the plate last season with a tepid slash line of just .244/.300/.390, but the 25-year-old youngster isn’t far removed from his days as a top-100 prospect in the sport.

2023 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.

This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…

1.  Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.

* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.

Central Notes: Tigers, Marmol, Ashby, Brewers

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The hot corner was a clear problem area for the Tigers in 2023. The club’s third basemen slashed a collective .211/.294/.323 last season, good for a 72 wRC+ that was better than only that tied with the A’s for the second-worst offensive production from the position in the majors, beating out only the Mets. In terms of fWAR, Detroit’s third basemen combined for -1.0 fWAR, tied with the Angels for bottom three in the majors ahead of the aforementioned clubs. Despite that dire situation, however, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic suggests that the Tigers may be content to enter 2024 relying on their internal options at the position.

That strategy could be more sensible than it may seem. Top prospects Jace Jung and Colt Keith could both find themselves in the majors in 2024 after strong offensive seasons in 2023 that saw them each slug over .500 while reaching the Double- and Triple-A level, respectively, for the first time in their career. Until the club’s young infielders are ready for the show, Stavenhagen suggests that the Tigers figure to rely on Matt Vierling as their primary third baseman. Vierling slashed a respectable .261/.329/.388 across 134 games in 2023 while primarily playing the outfield, but Detroit’s acquisition of Mark Canha figures to allow Vierling more time on the infield dirt in 2024 after making 27 starts at the hot corner this past season.

One area the Tigers do hope to make an addition this offseason is the bullpen, where Stavenhagen notes the club hopes to add a left-handed reliever. The club already has southpaws Tyler Holton and Joey Wentz among their relief options for 2024, but Wentz struggled badly in 2023 with a 6.90 ERA in 105 2/3 innings of work across 25 appearances, 19 of which were starts. While Wentz posted a more respectable 4.26 ERA in 25 1/3 innings of work out of the bullpen last year, it’s easy to see why the club may want additional support from the left side headed into 2024. That’s particularly true after the club released Chasen Shreve back in August and lost Tyler Alexander on waivers to the Rays last month.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

  • On the heels of a 91-loss season that saw his club finish dead last in the NL Central, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol is entering the final year of his contract in St. Louis. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the sides have not discussed an extension at this point, leaving Marmol poised to enter the 2024 campaign as a lame duck. For his part, Marmol told Goold that he wasn’t concerned about the lack of security, “This industry is pretty simple,” Marmol said, “If you’re good, they keep you. If you’re not good, they don’t.” President of baseball operations John Mozeliak, meanwhile, expressed confidence in his manager entering the final year of his deal with the club, suggesting that he’s “very optimistic” that Marmol will be with the club “for a long time.”
  • In conversation with reporters, including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Brewers GM Matt Arnold suggested that the club views left-hander Aaron Ashby as a starting pitching option for the club in 2024. That said, Arnold was noncommittal about Ashby’s timeline for return to action following shoulder surgery, which he underwent back in April. Despite the uncertainty surrounding Ashby’s readiness for Opening Day next season, Arnold made clear that the young lefty will be “part of [the club’s] mix” when he is ready to return to action. Ashby signed a five-year extension with the Brewers partway through the 2022 season but has thrown just 31 1/3 innings for the club since then amid shoulder issues. When and if he’s healthy enough to return to the mound, Ashby figures to compete with the likes of Colin Rea and Adrian Houser for a spot in the club’s rotation alongside Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Wade Miley.
  • Sticking with the Brewers, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that while Arnold did not rule out the possibility of top catching prospect Jeferson Quero making his big league debut at some point during 2024, the club nonetheless hopes to make an addition behind the plate to serve as the primary backup to William Contreras. Quero, 21, is the only other catcher on the club’s 40-man roster following the departure for Victor Caratini, who landed with the Astros on a two-year deal yesterday. Tom Murphy, Austin Hedges and Martin Maldonado are among the catchers still available on the open market this winter.

Cardinals Expect To Add Bullpen Help Via Free Agency

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The Cardinals have made no secret of their desire to add to the bullpen. Having accomplished their goal of bringing in three starting pitchers, St. Louis is prioritizing the relief corps.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested this evening the organization is likelier to add to the bullpen via free agency than in trade (relayed by Katie Woo of the Athletic). That’s a little surprising considering the Cards have been open about their willingness to trade a position player — Mozeliak candidly admitted they’re fielding offers on Tyler O’Neill yesterday — for pitching help.

Of course, noting that a free agent acquisition is more probable than a trade doesn’t close the latter avenue completely. The front office is surely exploring both paths. On the free agent front, reports have loosely linked St. Louis to Phil Maton, NPB closer Yuki Matsui and old friend Jordan Hicks.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports (on X) that the Cards have also discussed KBO pitcher Woo Suk Go. The LG Twins have made Go available to MLB teams via the posting system. A 25-year-old righty, Go turned in a 3.68 ERA over 44 innings this past season. He struck out an excellent 31.1% of opposing hitters but walked an elevated 11.8% of batters faced.

Go has until January 3 to decide whether to sign with a major league club or stay in South Korea. He’s not expected to command the same level of contract as either Maton or Matsui (and certainly won’t approach what it would cost to reunite with Hicks). The Cardinals project for a payroll in the $180MM range, according to Roster Resource. That’s a little above this year’s approximate $177MM Opening Day mark.

Mozeliak has previously suggested the Cards would keep their payroll steady, so they could be fairly close to their budgetary limit. The front office head unsurprisingly confirmed last night that the Cards were not going to top the $237MM luxury tax threshold (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Roster Resource projects the franchise’s CBT number around $208MM, a fair bit south of the base tax tier.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Listening To Offers On Tyler O’Neill

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3:40pm: In addition to O’Neill, both Carlson and Alec Burleson have drawn trade interest to some extent this offseason, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Both stand as plausible trade candidates themselves, though Mozeliak hasn’t taken the step of publicly declaring that with either player as he did with O’Neill.

In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning (video link), Mozeliak again touched on his trade talks regarding the outfield, admitting that it would be “a surprise” if some trade involving one of his outfielders doesn’t come together. Specifically, Mozeliak said he hopes to upgrade his bullpen next, whether via the trade of an outfielder or other means.

10:29am: Tyler O’Neill’s status as a potential trade candidate isn’t exactly a well-kept secret. Heading into the winter, it’s been widely expected that the Cardinals would listen to trade offers on both O’Neill and fellow outfielder Dylan Carlson. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak removed any doubt about the likelihood of an O’Neill trade in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM from this week’s Winter Meetings (video link).

“In the outfield, right now, if we were to play tomorrow it’d likely be [Lars Nootbaar], Tommy Edman and [Jordan Walker],” said Mozeliak. “Our fourth outfielder would be Dylan Carlson. … Tyler O’Neill is somebody that we are listening to on trades.”

Mozeliak added that he’s received “a lot of hits” on his outfielders in general, but O’Neill was the only one he specifically highlighted as a potential trade piece. The Cards have been against moving Nootbaar for some time now, and it stands to reason that there’s similar reluctance to consider moving Walker, who entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects and posted a .291/.358/.478 slash following the trade deadline.

O’Neill, 28, has ostensibly become an odd man out of the group. While the Cardinals could play Edman in the infield and thus open more playing time for O’Neill, the arrival of prospects like shortstop Masyn Winn, second baseman Nolan Gorman and utilityman Brendan Donovan have crowded the infield outlook as well. Winn, 21, didn’t hit well in last season’s MLB debut (.172/.230/.238), but that came in a sample of just 137 plate appearances — and Mozeliak specifically mentioned him in his MLB Network Radio appearance when describing his infield mix as “pretty solid” with Winn at short, Gorman/Donovan at second base and veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at the corners.

All signs seem to point to a potential trade of  O’Neill, who as recently as 2021 slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers and Gold Glove defense in left field but has since mustered just a .229/.310/.397 slash in 169 games. Injuries have played a significant factor in those struggles; O’Neill had an IL stint due to a shoulder impingement and a pair of IL stints for hamstring strains during the 2022 season. His 2023 campaign included a trip to the 60-day injured list for a lower back strain and a later return to the IL for a foot sprain.

There’s little doubt that a healthy O’Neill has game-changing power, but O’Neill simply hasn’t been healthy enough in his big league career. He played in 50 games during the shortened 2020 season and 138 games in 2021 but has otherwise rarely been on the field for the majority of a given season. That 2021 campaign is the only time he’s ever reached 100 games played or reached 400 big league plate appearances.

O’Neill is slated to become a free agent at season’s end and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.5MM this coming season. The power is clearly legitimate, but he’s been a bit below average at the plate overall throughout these two most recent, injury-riddled seasons. He still grades as a plus defender in left field and is an above-average runner. As far as change-of-scenery candidates go, O’Neill is a fairly appealing one, but the litany of injuries, minimal club control and limited recent track record at the plate will all coalesce to tamp down his value in a trade.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

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The Cardinals entered the offseason looking for three new starting pitchers, and that goal has already been accomplished with the signings of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson.  To this end, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated that the club has done a lot of the heavy lifting on its efforts to upgrade the rotation, yet he didn’t rule out more additions.

“We feel like we have a strong five right now,” Mozeliak told Gregg Palermo of Spectrum News.  “We feel like we have three or four guys that could give us depth throughout the season as well, so it’s not like a front-line priority but you never say never because something may pop up and make sense.”

In discussing the club’s tactics as a whole, Mozeliak said “we were very aggressive in the free agent market which was strategic.  We did not think we were going to be able to acquire what we were looking for via trade, at least where we didn’t feel like we were going to give up something that we were comfortable with, and so now that we do have some starting pitching we are going to be looking at things for our bullpen and be open-minded because there could be something that we haven’t thought about.”

Technically, St. Louis now has a rotation surplus given all of the younger arms behind the projected starting five of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz.  It isn’t to say that the Cardinals are necessarily itching to deal from their starting depth since the team very likely wants to have as much depth as possible on hand to withstand another spate of injuries, not to mention the fact that only Gray had a clear-cut quality season in 2023.

However, it does make sense that the Cardinals would be open to moving one or two of their younger arms if it means bringing in more top-of-the-rotation help.  In addition to their interest in White Sox starter Dylan Cease, the Cards have “discussed internally what a potential trade for Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow would look like,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

This isn’t really surprising news given that front offices routinely consider scores of free agents and trade candidates, and it seems similarly likely that the Cardinals probably at least checked in with the Rays about Glasnow as a matter of due diligence.  Perhaps most notably, Goold made specific mention that the Cardinals were weighing how Glasnow’s $25MM salary for 2024 would fit their payroll picture, which is currently projected to be slightly above their $178MM payroll from 2023.

While the Rays have stated they are comfortable carrying a larger payroll than usual for 2024, the general feeling is that Tampa will still try to move some salaries between now and Opening Day.  This could manifest itself as trades of other players (i.e. Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, or maybe even Randy Arozarena) rather than Glasnow, yet the right-hander’s $25MM salary is easily the highest on Tampa Bay’s roster, and he isn’t seen as a long-term fixture given that Glasnow is eligible for free agency next winter.  This short-term appeal makes Glasnow an interesting fit for many teams, including St. Louis if the Cardinals are okay with a one-year payroll bump, or if they look to shed some salaries themselves either as part of a Glasnow trade, or in other deals.

Turning to the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Yuki Matsui are a couple of the names already reported as players of interest for the Cardinals, and Goold adds Phil Maton as another target.  Maton has been an effective workhorse out of the Astros pen over the last two seasons, posting a 3.42 ERA and spectacular soft-contact numbers over 135 appearances and 131 2/3 regular-season innings.  A broken pinkie finger kept Maton from participating in Houston’s World Series run in 2022, but he has an outstanding playoff resume nonetheless, with an 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career postseason innings.

Maton (who turns 31 in March) went to high school in Chatham, Illinois, around a 90-minute drive away from St. Louis.  As Goold notes, geography also played a factor in the signings of Gray and Gibson, so the Cardinals might look to continue this trend to lure another semi-local product in Maton.  There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Maton’s market to date, yet the relief pitching market as a whole hasn’t really gotten cooking, as teams have been primarily first focusing on starters.

Cardinals Still Showing Interest In Dylan Cease

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Even after revamping their rotation with a rapid-fire trio of free agent signings, the Cardinals are still in the mix for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the press conference to introduce Sonny Gray that he “doubted” his next move would be to add more starting pitching but conceded that he remains “open-minded” to further rotation additions (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

The Cardinals, of course, signed Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in just over a week’s time, adding a trio of arms who combined for 97 starts in 2023. The addition of Gray added a front-end presence to the St. Louis rotation, while Lynn and Gibson at the very least provided some reliable bulk innings on the back end. It seems clear that the Cards prioritized some stability after years of injury-related starting pitching crunches at Busch Stadium, and Cease would be a fourth addition in that vein.

In terms of pure results, the 27-year-old Cease (28 next month) has been on both ends of the spectrum recently. In 2022, he finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting, while his 2023 campaign saw his ERA more than double from 2.20 to 4.58. Cease’s velocity dipped by a mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell three percentage points, and he yielded far more hard contact than he did during that elite 2022 campaign. What remained constant, however, was the righty’s availability. Cease made 33 starts this past season — his fourth straight year with a full slate of starts. Since 2020, Cease leads all MLB pitchers with 109 games started.

As things stand, the Cardinals project for a five-man rotation of Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, Gibson and Steven Matz. Mikolas and Matz are both signed through 2025 — Mikolas at a total of $32MM and Matz at $24MM. There’s been some speculation about the possibility of an eventual Matz trade, but the Cardinals are also surely reluctant to thin out their depth too much after being burned by a lack of depth in multiple seasons recently.

Cease would give the Cardinals even more bulk innings but do so while carrying more upside than perhaps any member of their current staff. He’d surely benefit from a move out of the White Sox’ homer-happy stadium and away from their poorly ranked defense. With two years of club control remaining, a projected $8.8MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and clear Cy Young-caliber upside on the mound, bidding for Cease’s services will be fierce.

Already this winter, he’s been connected to the Braves, Dodgers, Reds and Orioles. That’s surely just a fraction of the teams who’ve at least reached out to the ChiSox to gauge the asking price. The Cardinals’ recent free-agent activity might lessen their urgency relative to some of those other suitors, but it’s nevertheless of note that they remain in the mix at all.

From a payroll perspective, they can likely make a Cease acquisition work without even dramatically raising their spending from last year’s levels. The Cards backloaded Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract such that he’ll be paid just $10MM in 2024. Roster Resource projects a $180MM payroll right now, which is only narrowly higher than last year’s Opening Day mark. And the Cards could yet trade arbitration-eligible names like Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, which would impact that payroll projection.

Someone like O’Neill — a free agent at season’s end — isn’t likely to hold much appeal to the White Sox, who’ll be looking for controllable talent to build around in the near future. But generally speaking, the Cardinals have a bevy of young, MLB-ready talent that could interest Chicago. Names like Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker and Matthew Liberatore all have at least three seasons of club control remaining, and that’s not even counting some interesting upper-minors prospects who’ve yet to debut but are relatively close to the Majors (e.g. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence).

As for the timing of a potential Cease trade, reports on the matter are conflicting in nature; MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested just yesterday that Cease’s market was heating up and a trade could come together by Sunday evening. Not 18 hours later, Rosenthal reported nearly the opposite — that Sox GM Chris Getz has been indicating to teams he prefers to wait until after the top free-agent names have come off the board.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

Check out our past episodes!

Details On Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson Contracts

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The Cardinals finalized their three-year, $75MM contract with Sonny Gray yesterday. It came with a club option for the 2027 season which reports had pegged at $30MM with a $5MM buyout.

That deal is heavily backloaded. As reported by the Associated Press, Gray is set for a modest $10MM salary in 2024. He’ll make $25MM in ’25 and $35MM in the final guaranteed season, with the buyout bringing the guarantee to $75MM.

The ’27 option is not strictly a team provision; if the Cardinals exercise the option, Gray would have the right to opt out. If either side declines the option, the buyout would be paid in $1MM installments between 2027-31. Gray also receives full no-trade protection, per the AP.

In the short term, the backloaded nature of the deal might be most meaningful for the organization. Had the contract been paid out fairly evenly, the team’s 2024 commitments would have jumped into the $190MM+ range. With the relatively low sum for 2024, Roster Resource projects the Cards’ player spending for next season around $180MM.

St. Louis opened the ’23 season with a payroll around $177MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated at the beginning of the offseason that the club figured to remain in that general area for next season. There still might not be a ton of remaining spending room, although the signings of Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have checked off the team’s primary goal of adding three starting pitchers.

They’re also looking to add to the bullpen but could accomplish that via trade and/or free some payroll capacity by trading a veteran player. Tyler O’Neill (projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.5MM salary) and Dylan Carlson (projected at $1.8MM) are each into arbitration. Steven Matz, due successive $12.5MM salaries for the next two seasons, was pushed into the #5 spot in the rotation and could potentially be a trade candidate if St. Louis felt confident in any of their younger arms to take a step forward.

The AP also provides specifics on Gibson’s contract. Initially reported as a $12MM guarantee, it’s actually a $13MM deal. Gibson will make a $12MM salary next season and is ensured at least a $1MM buyout on a $12MM team option for 2025. The righty would receive a $1MM assignment bonus if traded and would lock in a $500K incentive for reaching 175 innings in either year of the contract.

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