Cardinals Rumors

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

By Darragh McDonald | April 18, 2024 at 8:19pm CDT

The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 17, 2024 at 7:06pm CDT

We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.

For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.

A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.

Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.

It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.

Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ’pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)

Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.

Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.

Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.

It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)

While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.

On the Major League Injured List

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.

Returned to Original Organization

Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.

Whitey Herzog Passes Away

By Anthony Franco | April 16, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

Hall of Fame manager Whitey Herzog has passed away at 92. The Cardinals announced the news on Tuesday morning. Herzog’s family provided a brief statement, as relayed by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (on X): “Whitey spent his last few days surrounded by his family. We have so appreciated all of the prayers and support from friends who knew he was very ill. Although it is hard for us to say goodbye, his peaceful passing was a blessing for him.”

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred released the following statement:

“Whitey Herzog was one of the most accomplished managers of his generation and a consistent winner with both ‘I-70’ franchises. He made a significant impact on the St. Louis Cardinals as both a manager and a general manager, with the Kansas City Royals as a manager, and with the New York Mets in player development. Whitey’s Cardinals’ teams reached the World Series three times in the 1980s, winning the Championship in 1982, by leaning on an identity of speed and defense that resonated with baseball fans across the world.

On behalf of Major League Baseball, I extend my deepest condolences to Whitey’s family, his friends across the game, and the fans of the Cardinals and the Royals.”

Herzog is best known for his legendary managerial run, but his time in professional baseball started as a player. He signed with the Yankees out of high school and spent a few seasons in the New York farm system. The Yankees traded him to the Washington Senators on the eve of the 1956 campaign. Herzog made his MLB debut in Washington, appearing in more than 100 games as a regular outfielder and hitting .245/.302/.337 as a rookie.

After Herzog made brief appearances with the Senators in each of the next two campaigns, Washington sold his contractual rights to the then-Kansas City A’s. He spent parts of three seasons with the A’s, hitting at a slightly above-average clip (.268/.383/.384) in 209 games. Herzog continued to produce solid results as a part-time player for two years after being traded to the Orioles before finishing his playing days with a brief stint in Detroit. Over parts of eight seasons, he hit .257/.354/.365 with 25 home runs and 172 runs batted in.

While that would’ve been a solid enough career in its own right, Herzog’s status as one of the sport’s all-time figures developed in his post-playing days. After a brief stint as an A’s scout, he moved into coaching and player development with the Mets. After the 1972 campaign, he landed his first managerial gig with the Rangers. That didn’t go well, as Texas stumbled to a 47-91 record and Herzog was fired before the end of the season when the Rangers seized the opportunity to hire Billy Martin.

Herzog spent the next year on the Angels’ coaching staff, a stint that included a four-game run as interim manager. It wasn’t until 1975 when he got his first extended managerial opportunity. The Royals tabbed Herzog that July to take over from Jack McKeon. He led the team to a 41-25 record down the stretch, although that wasn’t enough to overcome a middling 50-46 start to snag a playoff berth.

While the ’75 team fell a few games shy of the postseason, the Royals found plenty of success over the next few years. Herzog guided the team to three straight AL West titles from 1976-78, the first playoff trips in franchise history. While they were knocked off by the Yankees in the ALCS in all three seasons, that stretch of excellent regular season showings was a prelude to October success the following decade.

Unfortunately for Royals fans, that came with their in-state rivals. After the Royals missed the playoffs in ’79, Herzog was hired by the Cardinals as both manager and GM. He set about rebuilding the team around speed, defense and contact hitting at the expense of power. While the so-called “Whiteyball” was initially met with some derision, Herzog guided the Cardinals back to the top of the sport.

St. Louis missed the postseason during his first two seasons at the helm before a 92-win showing to snag the NL East title in 1982. After sweeping the Braves in the NLCS, they took on the Brewers in the Fall Classic. The Cards came back from a 3-2 series deficit, erasing a 3-1 lead in Game 7. St. Louis missed the postseason over the next two years but rattled off 101 wins to secure another NL East title in 1985.

Herzog was named the Senior Circuit’s Manager of the Year. A six-game triumph over the Dodgers in the NLCS set the stage for a matchup with his old team. The Cards dropped a classic seven-game set to the upstart Royals, the first title in franchise history. There was no shortage of controversy. With the Cardinals up 3-2 in the series and taking a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth in Game 6, a missed call at first base by Don Denkinger spurred a rally in which Kansas City came back for a 2-1 win. The Royals won the seventh game convincingly.

St. Louis made it back to the World Series once more during Herzog’s tenure. They knocked off the Giants in the 1987 NLCS to set up a showdown with the Twins. That also went seven games, with Minnesota coming back from a 3-2 series deficit to win it. Herzog managed the Cards for another three seasons but didn’t make it back to October. His managerial days ended midway through the 1990 campaign, although he later had a brief stint leading baseball operations for the Angels.

Including his interim work with the Halos, Herzog managed parts of 18 seasons in the majors. He won nearly 1300 regular season games, three pennants and one World Series. The veterans committee inducted him into the Hall of Fame in 2009. He was enshrined in St. Louis’ organizational Hall of Fame a few years later. MLBTR joins countless others around the game in sending condolences to Herzog’s family, friends, loved ones and the many players whose careers he impacted over the decades.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Central Notes: Grandal, Delay, Borucki, Gipson-Long, Edman, Martínez

By Leo Morgenstern | April 9, 2024 at 2:12pm CDT

Alex Stumpf of MLB.com offered a series of Pirates injury updates today.

Yasmani Grandal is still a few weeks away from coming off the injured list as he recovers from plantar fasciitis. However, he seems to be making good progress, and Stumpf reports that he will begin baserunning in the coming days. He has already been participating in simulated games. The two-time All-Star spent his last four seasons with the White Sox. His days as one of the best catchers in baseball are long behind him, but the Pirates are hoping he can be a capable veteran backup.

In less positive catching news, Jason Delay has been shut down from all baseball activities with little explanation. He has been on the IL since April 3 (retroactive to April 1) with right knee inflammation. The long-time minor leaguer had a mini breakout with the Pirates last year. Although his offensive numbers weren’t so impressive, he played 68 games behind the dish and put up strong defensive metrics, looking like a solid backup option.

On the pitching side, Ryan Borucki is recovering quickly from left triceps inflammation that landed him on the IL retroactive to April 6. Borucki, 30, entered the year hoping to follow up on a strong 2023 season in Pittsburgh. While the southpaw struggled through a pair of injury-riddled seasons with the Blue and Mariners in 2021 and ’22, he was a master of control for the Pirates in 2023. In 40 1/3 innings, Borucki walked just four batters. The only other pitcher with so few bases on balls (min. 30 IP) was Jacob deGrom. Stumpf notes that Borucki will begin playing catch soon, and he shouldn’t be on the IL for much longer than the minimum 15 days.

In other news from around the NL and AL Central:

The Tigers released a medical update today (shared by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press) that revealed right-handed pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long is dealing with right forearm tightness. He was already on the IL recovering from a groin strain. The 26-year-old is undergoing medical evaluation to determine the severity of the injury. Gipson-Long made four starts for the Tigers last year but retains his rookie eligibility for 2024. He is the team’s No. 10 prospect according to MLB Pipeline and No. 19 according to Baseball America.
Cardinals center fielder Tommy Edman has been approved to begin his hitting progression, reports Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His first step is hitting off a tee. While Edman will still need plenty of preparation to transition from a tee to MLB-caliber pitching, this marks an important step in his recovery. The Gold Glove-winner has been sidelined all year with a wrist injury.
Guardians infield prospect Angel Martínez has been on the 10-day IL since Opening Day with a right foot contusion he suffered this spring. Today, he was sent to Triple-A Columbus for a rehab assignment. Although Martínez is on Cleveland’s 40-man roster, he has yet to make his MLB debut. He will likely stay at Triple-A once his rehab stint is up, where he will look to improve upon a poor showing at the plate last season. Martínez, 22, is widely considered a top-10 prospect in the Guardians system. He is a candidate to earn a call-up to the MLB squad in the event of an injury to another infielder.

NL Central Notes: Gray, Cubs, Brewers

By Nick Deeds | April 7, 2024 at 1:39pm CDT

The Cardinals started the season without their biggest offseason signing, as staff ace Sonny Gray opened the 2024 campaign on the shelf due to a hamstring strain. The right-hander was scheduled for a final rehab start this past week before returning to big league action, but those plans were dashed by an unfortunate rainout that kept Gray from taking the mound. The club initially announced that Gray would have his Triple-A start pushed back to this coming Tuesday, but manager Carlos Marmol revealed to reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo) today that Gray’s start that day will actually be for the big league club.

Per Marmol, Gray will be limited to around 65 pitches in his Cardinals debut, where he’ll take on the Phillies in the second game of a three-game set between the clubs. Gray landed in St. Louis back in November on a three-year, $75MM deal following a dominant 2023 season in Minnesota. The right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA with an MLB-best 2.83 FIP for the Twins last year in a performance that earned him his third career All Star appearance and a second-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting behind Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

The Cardinals are surely hoping Gray will bring that same form to St. Louis. The club was plagued by one of the worst starting pitching staffs in the majors last year, and the early returns haven’t been much better so far with the rotation’s 5.64 FIP in the young 2024 campaign is better than only the Rockies and Blue Jays among all big league clubs. Upon his return, Gray figures to replace struggling youngster Zack Thompson in the club’s rotation mix, slotting in alongside fellow veterans Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn.

More from around the NL Central…

The Cubs made a surprise roster move just before the start of their game against the Dodgers this afternoon, placing right-hander Julian Merryweather on the 15-day injured list with a right shoulder strain as noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. It’s a significant blow to the club’s relief corps, as Merryweather has dominated with a 3.29 ERA (136 ERA+) and a nearly matching 3.46 FIP in 73 appearances for the Cubs across the past two seasons. Merryweather’s absence will pave the way for right-hander Daniel Palencia, who pitched to a 4.45 ERA across 27 appearances in his rookie season last year, to join the club’s bullpen. Meanwhile, Merryweather’s role in the club’s late-inning mix alongside Adbert Alzolay and Hector Neris figures to be filled by Mark Leiter Jr.
Speaking of pitching roster moves, the Brewers placed right-hander Jakob Junis on the 15-day IL yesterday due to a right shoulder impingement. Fortunately for Milwaukee, it sounds as though the issue isn’t particularly serious. According to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, an MRI on Junis’s shoulder came back clean and Junis told reporters that he hopes to begin ramping back up in a few days. That would seem to indicate an absence near the minimum for the right-hander, who’s been replaced by southpaw Aaron Ashby on the active roster while he recuperates. Ashby, 26 next month, did not pitch in the majors last year after undergoing shoulder surgery but now appears to be healthy, having already made a five-inning start at the Triple-A level this season.

Cardinals Notes: Nootbaar, Edman, Carlson, Middleton

By Nick Deeds | April 6, 2024 at 10:21pm CDT

Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided reporters with updates regarding a handful of the club’s injured players this afternoon, the most optimistic of which was regarding outfielder Lars Nootbaar. As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, the 26-year-old played a full game in left field for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Memphis this evening, which figures to be followed by a game at DH on Sunday. Assuming those final rehab games go well, Denton adds that Nootbaar is slated to head to St. Louis on Monday and could be activated from the injured list in time for that evening’s series opener against the Phillies.

The Cardinals opened the season with a makeshift outfield mix of Jordan Walker, prospect Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan due to injuries suffered not only by Nootbaar, but also center fielders Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson. Nootbaar’s start to the season has been delayed by a pair of fractures in his ribcage, while Edman has been dealing with pain in his surgically-repaired right wrist and Carlson suffered a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before the season began.

Nootbaar’s return should provide a boost to the club’s production in the outfield, as he’s hit a solid .247/.356/.430 with a 120 wRC+ and an excellent 14.5% walk rate in 225 games for the Cardinals over the past two seasons. That steady production should help to offset the slow starts suffered by Walker (27 wRC+), Scott (4 wRC+), and Burleson (30 wRC+) so far this season, though it’s of course still too early in the season to make any long-term judgments about the aforementioned trio.

It appears that Nootbaar is significantly close to a return than either Edman or Carlson, neither of whom have resumed baseball activities at this point. That could change rather quickly, however, as Denton notes that Carlson was scheduled to have his shoulder examined by team doctors today, while Edman is scheduled to meet with a specialist on Monday. Both players could be cleared to resume baseball activities if those aforementioned check-ups go well.

Edman was hampered by wrist issues last year and missed nearly a month of action over the summer, leading to him going under the knife in October. He hasn’t bounced back from that surgery as well as expected, however, and missed all of Spring Training while dealing with continued soreness in his wrist. He was slated to be the club’s starting center fielder this season, though he’s capable of playing anywhere in the infield and outfield as needed and could receive time at his native position of shortstop alongside Masyn Winn and Brandon Crawford when healthy.

Carlson, meanwhile, appeared poised to replace Edman in center field to open the season before he too hit the injured list to open the season. While he posted strong numbers en route to a third place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2021, the switch-hitter has struggled since with a .230/.316/.364 slash line in 204 games. It’s possible he’ll get regular reps in the outfield if he returns to action before Edman does, though once the club’s outfield is once again at full strength he figures to be relegated to work off the bench as the club’s fourth outfielder.

Looking beyond the outfield, Marmol also provided an update on right-hander Keynan Middleton to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) this afternoon. As relayed by Jones, Middleton received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow and is expected to resume baseball activities after a 72-hour rest period. The news represents a slight setback for Middleton, who was originally scheduled to begin his throwing program earlier this week.

Middleton has yet to make his Cardinals debut after signing a one-year deal with the club back in February, but pitched to a 3.38 ERA and 4.20 FIP in 51 games last year that included a dominant stretch run in New York where he posted an excellent 1.88 ERA with a 3.26 FIP while striking out 30.4% of batters faced. Upon his return, Middleton figures to slot into the club’s late-inning mix alongside the likes of Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero.

NL Notes: Pham, Contreras, Cabrera, Garrett, Uhlman

By Mark Polishuk | April 4, 2024 at 11:17pm CDT

Multiple reports over the offseason indicated that the Padres had interest in signing Tommy Pham, with the most recent of these items coming in mid-March, when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that San Diego had interest in Pham on a one-year deal worth around $3MM or $4MM. Opening Day has now come and gone with Pham still a free agent, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Padres still have interest, though they are wary that signing Pham wouldn’t leave much flexibility for future in-season moves while still remaining under the luxury tax threshold.

RosterResource projects a current tax number of around $223.6MM for San Diego, while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has a notably higher projection of $231MM. It is important to note that these sites and others are only making estimates, while teams have their own internal mechanisms for calculating a luxury tax figure (and the league its own set of calculations to determine the final number at the end of the season). The Padres seem intent on resetting their tax payor status and staying under the $237MM threshold, so if they have reservations about signing Pham for $3-4MM, that perhaps might indicate their internal number is closer to Cot’s figure than RR’s figure. That said, it could also be a negotiating tactic on the Padres’ part to seek out a larger bargain on Pham, as the outfielder is undoubtedly eager to get onto the field.

Cardinals Recall Pedro Pagés For MLB Debut

By Darragh McDonald | April 4, 2024 at 3:00pm CDT

The Cardinals announced today that infielder Matt Carpenter has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain, retroactive to April 2. In a corresponding move, catcher Pedro Pagés was recalled from Triple-A Memphis and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

It’s unclear when or how Carpenter hurt himself. He last played on Monday but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been hurt for days since he’s only been in part-time bench role for the Cards anyhow. It’s also unclear how long he’ll be out of action but more information will perhaps be forthcoming in the near future.

The mysterious injury to Carpenter allows the club to add a third catcher to their active roster. Willson Contreras was hit on the hand by a pitch yesterday and is out of today’s lineup with Iván Herrera starting. Brendan Donovan was also hit by a pitch yesterday, twice, and is also getting a day off today. That might leave the club a bit short-handed in their home opener today as the four position players not in the lineup today are Contreras, Donovan, Pagés and Brandon Crawford, who has never played a position other than shortstop in his career.

Regardless of the circumstances, the result is that Pagés gets called to the big leagues for the first time. Now 25, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Long considered a strong defensive catcher, he took a step forward at the plate in 2023.

He got 497 plate appearances at the Double-A level last year and drew a walk in 11.9% of them, while only striking out at a 19.3% clip. He also hit 16 home runs and slashed .267/.362/.443 for a wRC+ of 113.

NL Central Notes: Candelario, Donovan, Taillon

By Leo Morgenstern | April 4, 2024 at 12:08am CDT

Reds third baseman Jeimer Candelario took an early exit from Wednesday night’s contest with the Phillies. He appeared to hurt himself on a swing in his final at-bat, and while he smacked a double on the very next pitch, he continued to grimace from second base. After the game, manager David Bell said that “hopefully” it was nothing more than “hyperextension of the elbow” (per Bally Sports Cincinnati). He said the team does not believe the injury is serious, but they will reevaluate Candelario on Friday before their series opener against the Mets.

Not so long ago, the Reds appeared to have a playing time crunch in the infield. However, Noelvi Marte’s 80-game suspension and Matt McLain’s shoulder surgery cleared up the logjam. If Candelario requires an IL stint, Cincinnati’s infield depth will suddenly be tested. Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can play third base, but they’re already playing regular roles in left field and at first base, respectively. Santiago Espinal, acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays late this spring, is another option to fill in at the hot corner.

In other injury news from around the NL Central…

Brendan Donovan was also removed mid-game on Wednesday. Leading off for the Cardinals, he was hit by a pitch in the very first plate appearance of the game. Several innings later, he was hit again, and this time, he did not return to left field in the bottom half of the frame. The second pitch hit him on his throwing elbow (per John Denton of MLB.com). Donovan, a versatile utility player, has played six of his seven games in left field this season. The Cardinals already have three outfielders on the IL – Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, and Dylan Carlson – and can hardly afford to lose another.
In more positive injury news, Jameson Taillon is progressing well as he recovers from a stiff lower back. According to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, the righty’s live batting practice session went well on Tuesday. He is set to make a rehab start on Sunday. If all goes well in his rehab appearance, he could still be on track to rejoin the Cubs in mid-April; two weeks ago, manager Craig Counsell suggested mid-April was the earliest Taillon could return (per Lee).

Cardinals Notes: Gray, Thompson, O’Brien

By Darragh McDonald | April 3, 2024 at 4:39pm CDT

The Cardinals are still waiting for right-hander Sonny Gray to make his regular season debut with the club, after he suffered a right hamstring strain during the spring. His path back to the big leagues got muddied, literally, when this week’s weather prevented his ramp-up from going as planned.

Per John Denton of MLB.com, Gray was going to make a rehab start for Triple-A Memphis at Indianapolis today but the club changed plans due to the heavy rain in the forecast. Instead, the new plan is for a 50-pitch simulated game today in Springfield, Missouri, followed by a Triple-A start on April 9, which was around when he was hoping to be back with the big league club. But he’ll now be looking at a return on April 14, assuming a normal four-day rest period after his outing for the Redbirds.

When Gray is ready to return, he should slot into the rotation next to Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Steven Matz in the rotation. That will likely mean that left-hander Zack Thompson gets nudged out. Thompson started today’s game for the Cards and Denton noted that his velocity is way down, more than three ticks below his previous start. Whether that’s indicative of some kind of undiscovered injury remains to be seen.

If he’s healthy, Thompson has an option and can be sent to the minors when Gray gets back. He could also be moved to the bullpen to take over the long relief role currently held by Matthew Liberatore, as Liberatore also has an option and could be sent down for work in the Triple-A rotation.

Gray was signed to a three-year, $75MM deal in the offseason after posting a 2.79 earned run average with the Twins last year. He combined a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 7.3% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate, finishing second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.

Elsewhere in Cardinal news, right-hander Riley O’Brien was placed on the 15-day injured list on the weekend due to a flexor strain. But earlier this week, Denton relayed that an MRI showed no structural damage.

O’Brien will still require a shutdown period before ramping back up, but that’s clearly a better alternative to requiring surgery and missing extended time. Acquired from the Mariners in November, O’Brien has just 3 1/3 innings of major league experience but had a 2.29 ERA in 55 Triple-A innings last year. His 13.6% walk rate was scary but he also struck out 37.7% of batters faced and got grounders on 57.1% of balls in play.

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