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Blue Jays, Astros Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar thus far, but with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the top corner outfield bat on the market. The Blue Jays, who just signed Santander for five years, and the Astros are among the teams with interest in the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Network this morning (video link). The incumbent Padres have also been tied to Profar this winter and very clearly love him as a player and person, but it’s far from clear the  front office will have that kind of spending power. The Friars have reportedly been working to scale back payroll this winter, and that was before recent ownership tumult.

Profar, 32 next month, is fresh off a career year where he improved in just about every measurable category. His .280 average, .380 on-base percentage and .459 slugging percentage all ranked as career-best marks. The former top prospect made massive gains in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, all while posting his best walk rate (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has long had a plus eye and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the contact he made was often lacking punch. That wasn’t at all the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 games/668 plate appearances.

The fit with Toronto isn’t as clean with Santander now in the fold on a $92.5MM contract, but there’s still room to move things around. Playing Santander regularly in right field — or having Santander and George Springer split time between right field and designated hitter — would open up left field for Profar (who could see occasional DH time himself). That’d likely come at the expense of playing time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, but Profar would be a pronounced upgrade over both if he can replicate or even approximate last year’s breakout showing.

Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxury penalization. They very narrowly dipped under the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty level in the process, meaning they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any dollars allocated to Profar (or another free agent). They’re currently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which would be a club record.

Turning to Houston, their outfield is a clear weak spot on the roster — at least on paper — following the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston will have Jake Meyer in center field, where he’ll be flanked by a combination of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Other options on the 40-man roster include Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an upgrade would be a worthwhile pursuit.

Ownership’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open question. Jim Crane has said he’s open to paying the luxury tax for a second straight season — and just the second time in his ownership tenure — but there’s been mixed messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston offered Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a legitimate offer, and the corresponding $26MM average annual value would’ve sent the ’Stros careening into the middle tiers of luxury penalty.

On the other hand, trading Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the opposite direction. Granted, that swap helped to pave the way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. But, it can be argued that if Crane were truly amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he could’ve fit Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The team has also been shopping reliever Ryan Pressly throughout the offseason, and general manager Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by speaking of a need to “get creative” with payroll. None of those facts portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at least not by any notable amount.

As things stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, but only by a narrow margin of about $3MM. A trade of Pressly or another player — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — could drop them back under that line, but it’d be tough to shoehorn Profar in under the barrier without finding a trade partner for Pressly and another player. If Crane is willing to take a small CBT hit, knowing dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will help them reset their penalty level next offseason, then moving Pressly on its own might be enough to make things line up.

Time will tell how the market for Profar plays out, but he’s now the most-productive left fielder still sitting on the market. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d come with the type of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), but something in the range of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have seemed too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many teams already having filled their roster needs, demand might not be sufficient to get Profar to such heights, but a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV still seem plenty feasible.

Blue Jays Sign Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays finally have a big splash, plucking a slugger from a division rival. The Jays officially announced the signing of star outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $92.5MM, though heavy deferrals drop the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, the contract reportedly comes with an average annual value around $14MM — suggesting MLB calculates the net present value closer to $70MM. Santander can opt out after the third year, though the club will have the ability to override that by picking up an option for 2030. That has a base value of $15MM and contains a $5MM buyout.

The option and various escalators could tack on another $17.5MM over that sixth season. The deal is frontloaded and contains upwards of $35MM in deferrals, which can push beyond $50MM depending on the opt-out/option result. Toronto designated lefty Brandon Eisert for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.

Santander, 30, has established himself as one of the better power bats in the league in recent years. That included a huge 44-homer tally in 2024. That was his personal best but it was also his sixth straight season in double digits and third straight with at least 28 long balls.

Earlier in his career, he undercut that power production somewhat with more tepid results in terms of batting average and drawing walks, though he has been better at drawing free passes over the past three years. From 2019 to 2021, he hit 49 homers in 240 games but only had a 5.2% walk rate. That led to a .252/.295/.474 batting line and 100 wRC+, indicating his strengths and weaknesses evened out to league average production on the whole.

For the 2022 to 2024 seasons, Santander improved his walk rate by a few ticks, finishing between 8.4% and 8.7% in each of those. That’s roughly league average, with all MLB hitters walking at an 8.2% clip last year. He added those walks without sacrificing his power, putting the ball over the wall 105 times, which made for a productive combination. He had a combined line of .244/.317/.478 for those three campaigns, which translated to a 124 wRC+.

Apart from those home runs, Santander’s contributions have been fairly limited. As mentioned, the on-base abilities have been subpar overall, though fairly decent in the past three years. He’s not a burner on the basepaths, having only once stolen more than two bases in a season. His outfield defense has generally been graded as a bit below league average. He has a career tally of -3 Defensive Runs Saved in over 5,000 outfield innings, with Outs Above Average having him at -13.

Though he’s not the most well-rounded player, he’s a strong fit for the Blue Jays for multiple reasons. The club’s offense was actually around league average last year, though with far better on-base ability than power production. As a team, the Jays slashed .241/.313/.389 for a 101 wRC+, tied for 13th in the league. Their 8.4% walk rate was actually one of the better marks, tied for seventh among the 30 MLB clubs. But they only hit 156 home runs, with just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox below them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the team to reach the 20-homer plateau.

On top of that, Santander is a switch-hitter, with the Jays having been more right-leaning in recent years. Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk all project for regular roles next year and each is right-handed. Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Orelvis Martínez are also righties who could earn spots on the team. The Jays do have a few lefties, with Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido among them, though there are question marks there. Varsho and Giménez have been more glove-first players while Wagner and Loperfido are still lacking in big league experience. Santander’s splits have been fairly close to neutral in his career. He has hit .252/.320/.467 for a 116 wRC+ against lefties, .243/.302/.470 for a 111 wRC+ against righties.

The defensive hit from rostering Santander is also perhaps not a huge deal for Toronto. The Jays, as a team, led the league with 102 DRS last year. Their 26 OAA tally was fourth in the league. Sacrificing a bit of defensive value for the big power bat they need is a sensible tradeoff for them. They also don’t have a regular designated hitter and can perhaps keep Santander in that slot with some regularity. Justin Turner took most of the club’s DH plate appearances in 2024 before being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.

Beyond the on-field fit, the Jays have clearly been looking for a big offseason W for quite some time. The past year-plus has seen them make strong pursuits of marquee players, such as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, but with the Jays coming up just short in all of those.

After missing on Ohtani last winter, the Jays pivoted to modest moves, re-signing Kevin Kiermaier as well as adding Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodríguez. No one in that group got a guarantee larger than $32MM. The 2024 season then went on to be a massive disappointment, with the Jays engineering a midseason selloff and finishing at 74-88. They seemed to come into this winter looking to mollify a disgruntled fan base but the near misses on Soto, Sasaki, Fried and Burnes only appeared to make things worse. Whether Santander is a true star is subjective, though this signing will be Toronto’s biggest since they signed Kevin Gausman three years ago.

One silver lining of the 2024 season falling apart for the Jays was that their midseason selling dipped them below the competitive balance tax, which lowered their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That is the case here, as the Orioles extended a QO to Santander, which he naturally rejected. Had the Jays paid the tax in 2024, they would have forfeited $1MM of international bonus pool space by signing Santander, in addition to surrendering their second- and fifth-best picks in the draft. By ducking under the tax, the penalty is just $500K of 2026 pool space and only their second-best pick. Since Santander is guaranteed more than $50MM on this deal, the O’s will receive a compensation pick after the first round of this summer’s draft.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Santander could secure a four-year, $80MM pact. He seemed to have plenty of interest, with the Jays connected to him early on. Clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Angels were also rumored to be interested at various times. Santander and his reps reportedly tried to parlay that interest into a five-year deal and/or a $100MM guarantee in December, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. But he lingered unsigned into the new year and reportedly had some openness to considering a shorter pact.

In the end, he has gotten his five years, though at a lesser average annual value than he was seeking. The sticker price of $92.5MM over five years leads to an $18.5MM AAV, but the deferrals reduce that by a decent amount. The opt-out gives him a chance at some more future earnings, though the Jays could pick up the option and effectively make it $110MM over six years.

Using the pre-deferral $18.5MM AAV, RosterResource projects the club for a $237MM payroll and $263MM CBT calculation for this year. The club opened with a payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so they’re already beyond that. President Mark Shapiro previously suggested that he didn’t expect the club’s spending to drastically change compared to last year, perhaps suggesting there’s not much room left in the budget now. Though Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests that signing Pete Alonso is still a possibility for the Jays even after getting Santander, seemingly indicating otherwise. The club also reportedly has some interest in starting pitching upgrades and has been working to bolster the bullpen all winter. The CBT number is already beyond this year’s $261MM second tier, though the club will be a “first-time” payor on account of ducking under last year.

Perhaps the Jays will make some more additions, such as bringing in Alonso. Such a move would force him and Guerrero to share first base and the DH slot, thus pushing Santander into being an everyday outfielder. If that comes to pass, he would surely be in one corner with Springer in the other. Varsho will be the club’s regular center fielder once he’s healthy. Guys like Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Jonatan Clase and Alan Roden will either be options for depth roles or bench jobs. If Santander is able to serve as the DH more regularly, that could perhaps open more outfield playing time for those others.

For the clubs that missed on Santander, the outfield market is fairly thinned out. In addition to Santander, guys like Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Michael Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board. Jurickson Profar now stands alone as the top unsigned option, so perhaps his market will now pick up. Guys like Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha and others are also available.

Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that Santander and the Jays were in agreement, pending a physical. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet later reported that the physical was complete. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the five-year length, the opt-out/club option override, the signing bonus, the $92.5MM guarantee and the possibility to get to $110MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the opt-out is after 2027. Nicholson-Smith reported the frontloaded nature, as well as the approximate $14MM CBT value. Alexander reported that more than $35MM was deferred.

Blue Jays Designate Brandon Eisert For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that they’ve designated lefty reliever Brandon Eisert for assignment. That opens a spot on the 40-man roster for Anthony Santander, who has officially signed his five-year free agent deal.

Eisert, who turned 27 yesterday, made his major league debut last season. He came out of the bullpen for three appearances, allowing three runs across 6 2/3 innings. He walked four and struck out a pair. The Oregon State product spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Buffalo, where he turned in a 3.86 earned run average through 53 2/3 innings. He fanned an excellent 29.1% of batters faced against a 9.3% walk rate.

That was Eisert’s third consecutive season working mostly in Triple-A. He doesn’t have much else to prove there. Eisert has posted a cumulative 3.83 ERA through 183 1/3 innings. He has missed bats in all three years and owns a career 28.6% strikeout rate at the top minor league level. He pairs that with league average walk and ground-ball numbers.

Despite his solid minor league results, Eisert got only the briefest of looks in the Toronto bullpen. The Jays had the worst relief group in the American League last season. The front office seemingly didn’t expect Eisert’s arsenal to play at the MLB level, though. He doesn’t have prototypical power stuff. His fastball averaged 91.2 MPH in the majors and sat around 90 MPH in Triple-A. He threw the fastball around half the time while mixing in a slider and changeup during his minor league work.

Eisert’s upper minors track record and ability to throw multiple innings out of the bullpen could get him some attention. The Jays have five days to trade him or place him on waivers, which are a 48-hour process. Eisert still has two minor league options, meaning another team that is willing to carry him on the 40-man roster could bounce him between the majors and Triple-A for a while.

Blue Jays Interested In Max Scherzer

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There hasn’t been much public buzz about Max Scherzer this winter, apart from a report earlier this month that four unknown clubs were showing interest in the future Hall-of-Famer’s services.  The Blue Jays may or may not have been one of those four mystery teams, but Toronto is showing interest in Scherzer now, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith.

The Jays have been linked to dozens of free agents this winter, continuing the unofficial “check in on everyone” strategy that general manager Ross Atkins has broadly used over the last five years, since the team’s rebuilding phase was ended when Hyun-Jin Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract.  It therefore isn’t surprising that the Blue Jays also have Scherzer on their radar, both because Toronto is looking for rotation help and because Scherzer has some intriguing buy-low potential given his lengthy resume.

2024 was perhaps the least-noteworthy of Scherzer’s 17 MLB seasons, as he pitched a career-low 43 1/3 innings.  Scherzer underwent back surgery last offseason and was expected to miss at least a bit of time at the start of the 2024 campaign while recovering, but subsequent issues with nerve irritation in his triceps, shoulder fatigue, and a hamstring strain resulted in what was pretty close to a lost season for both Scherzer and the Rangers as a whole.

At least the nerve problem seems to have been corrected by a mechanical change, as Scherzer relayed to reporters last September, and Scherzer is now over a year removed from his back procedure.  While the right-hander has generally been quite durable over his long career, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the long grind of 2878 big league innings has finally caught up to Scherzer now that he has passed his 40th birthday.

Injuries notwithstanding, Scherzer was still able to post a respectable 3.95 ERA last season.  His walk and chase rates were both excellent in his small sample size of 43 1/3 frames, though that great chase rate manifested itself into only a modest 22.6% strikeout rate.  Scherzer also had a 3.77 ERA over 152 2/3 innings with the Mets and Rangers in 2023, which could be a better reflection of what might be reasonably expected from a healthy Scherzer at this late stage in his career — a solid mid-rotation starter who can still dial up some of his old magic every once in a while.

Scherzer and his former teammate Justin Verlander have often been linked together this winter as veteran superstars coming off injury-marred seasons, and Verlander (entering his age-42 campaign) inked a one-year, $15MM guarantee with the Giants two weeks ago.  With Verlander now off the board, more teams could be looking at Scherzer, even if Toronto is the first club publicly cited as a suitor.

While the Blue Jays signed relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia to multi-year deals this winter, the Jays’ last two offseasons have been defined more by the players the team hasn’t signed rather than the players who actually put pen to paper.  Toronto’s high-profile pursuits of Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Roki Sasaki, and several other top-shelf free agents ended with those players all signing elsewhere, creating the impression that the Jays front office can no longer seal the deal with frontline talent.

It hasn’t helped Atkins’ recruiting efforts that the Blue Jays stumbled to a 74-88 record last season, and finished last place in the AL East.  The possible departures of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette into free agency next winter add to the uncertainty over the Jays’ long-term viability as contenders, or even if the team still has enough in the tank to make a rebound in 2025.  “As currently constructed, the Blue Jays might be a tougher sell for” Scherzer, Nicholson-Smith writes, as even if Scherzer’s market might be somewhat limited by his age and recent injuries, he would surely still prefer to play for a contending team if he has options available.

Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays Had Interest In Tanner Scott

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Tanner Scott is headed to Chavez Ravine, as he became the Dodgers’ latest big-ticket acquisition when he signed a four-year, $72MM deal earlier today.  The Cubs, Braves, Mets, and Yankees had all been linked to Scott’s market earlier this winter, but various reports from this afternoon indicated that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Red Sox also had interest in the left-hander’s services.

The willingness of the Dodgers and other teams to give Scott four guaranteed years seemed to be the dealbreaker for at least a couple of teams.  The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo wrote that the Orioles and Red Sox, respectively, each had misgivings about that long of a commitment.  In particular, Cotillo poured cold water on speculation that Boston offered Scott a longer deal with a larger average annual value, as a source tells Cotillo that such reports of a bigger offer were “very inaccurate.”

The O’s still at least “remained engaged” on Scott “as of a few days ago,” Kostka wrote, which could speak to the team’s familiarity with the reliever.  Of course, Scott began his career as a Baltimore draft pick and spent his first five MLB seasons in an Orioles uniform, posting a 4.73 ERA over his 156 innings out of the team’s bullpen.  The big strikeout numbers and potential was clearly already present for Scott during his time in Baltimore, though it wasn’t until the 2023 season (when Scott was with the Marlins) that he finally seemed to solve his longstanding control problems.

Baltimore’s one-year, $10MM deal with Andrew Kittredge from earlier this week also seems to generally line up with Kostka’s timeline, so it isn’t surprising that the O’s moved away from Scott after landing another high-leverage reliever at a much lower price tag.  Kittredge projects as the Orioles’ top setup man in front of closer Felix Bautista, who is returning after a year recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Kittredge is the highest-profile reliever the O’s have acquired this winter, while the Red Sox brought in Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson on guaranteed contracts, and a few other veterans on minor league deals.  As Cotillo notes, the Red Sox had talks with Scott, Kittredge, and several other relievers who have since signed contracts, as Boston continues to look for help at the back end of its bullpen.  Liam Hendriks is penciled into the closer’s role, though some depth is a necessity since Hendriks (like Bautista) also missed 2024 while rehabbing from a TJ procedure.

Toronto fans won’t be pleased to hear the Blue Jays lost another target to the Dodgers, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman indeed reports that the Jays “were among [the] teams in on Scott.”  The depth of the Blue Jays’ interest isn’t known, and since the Jays landed Jeff Hoffman last week, it seems possible that the Hoffman signing was a pivot away from Scott’s escalating market.

That said, the Blue Jays have already been more aggressive than usual in adding relief pitching, which isn’t a surprise given the dire performance of their 2024 bullpen.  Toronto has already added Hoffman, Nick Sandlin, and old friend Yimi Garcia as part of the bullpen overhaul, and depending on whether or not the Jays acquire another starting pitcher, Yariel Rodriguez might be part of the relief mix as well if he isn’t used as the fifth starter.

MLB Conducted Investigation Prior To Roki Sasaki’s Posting

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Prior to the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball officially posting right-hander Roki Sasaki for major league clubs last month, Major League Baseball conducted an investigation before authorizing Sasaki’s posting. Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times reported this afternoon that MLB’s investigation was in order to “ensure the protocol agreement had been followed” and involved interviews with multiple parties. A report from Fabian Ardaya, Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal, and Will Sammon of The Athletic added more details this evening, noting that the primary focus of the league’s probe was not Sasaki himself but rather the Marines. Both reports emphasize that the league found nothing that substantiated rumors of an illegal arrangement taking place.

That the league’s investigation focused on the Marines may seem somewhat surprising, but The Athletic’s report notes that the current posting system limits the payout for the Marines to just 25% of Sasaki’s total bonus. That’s a weak financial incentive for a club parting ways with its star player and represents not only a step back from the large posting fees players like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Seiya Suzuki have garnered for their clubs in recent years but also the $20MM posting fee the Nippon Ham Fighters were able to charge in exchange for Shohei Ohtani’s services when he signed with the Angels as an international amateur under the previous posting system back in December 2017. That relative lack of financial compensation for Sasaki’s services raised concerns among league officials for the potential for an under-the-table payment.

While MLB’s investigation found no wrongdoing by any party, speculation around the game of the possibility of an handshake agreement between Sasaki and the Dodgers grew significant enough to draw a strong denial from agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who represents the right-handed phenom. As described in The Athletic’s report, clubs around the game felt uncertain about Sasaki’s goals throughout his posting process as teams like the Mariners and Red Sox failed to land a meeting with the 23-year-old while large market teams like the Cubs, Yankees, and Mets did in spite of suggestions that he may prefer to avoid the spotlight.

Regardless of that confusion, it became clear earlier this week that Sasaki had narrowed things down to three finalists: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays, each of whom then visited with Sasaki in their respective cities and began to prepare their offers. According to The Athletic’s report, San Diego told Sasaki’s camp that they would be willing to trade to maximize their bonus pool and offer Sasaki the entirety of those funds while the Dodgers lined up a trade with the Phillies to add additional bonus pool money in the event that they landed Sasaki. The Blue Jays were especially aggressive in their pursuit of Sasaki, however.

While all three clubs were clearly willing to add significant bonus pool dollars in order to land Sasaki, Toronto acquired $2MM in international bonus pool space from the Guardians by taking on the majority of the money owed to center fielder Myles Straw over the next two years despite not actually having a deal in place with the right-hander. The impetus behind that trade utlimately did not work out for Toronto as Sasaki wound up choosing Los Angeles. Despit that, The Athletic’s report indicates that the Blue Jays believe Straw could be a worthwhile addition in his own right and that the money they took on to land him won’t be prohibitive as they continue to look for ways to upgrade their roster. Notably, center fielder Daulton Varsho is not expected to be ready for Opening Day and the addition of Straw could give the club some depth at the position while Varsho recovers.

Blue Jays Still Looking For Starting Pitching

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After missing out on Roki Sasaki, the Blue Jays “remain involved in” the starting pitching market, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  While Toronto has been more primarily linked to hitters this winter, the Jays have also been actively considering several starters, including such notable names as Sasaki, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty.

Of that group, only Pivetta and Flaherty remained unsigned, as all of the other names signed with other teams.  The near-misses on Sasaki and Burnes in particular have only added to what has been a frustrating 14 months for the Blue Jays, who have continually come up on short on several high-profile free agent pursuits in the last two offseasons.

The Jays’ current starting five consists of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodriguez.  This group (and Yusei Kikuchi, who traded to the Astros at the deadline) combined to post roughly middle-of-the-pack numbers in comparison to other rotations around the league, and the starting staff was in many ways Toronto’s most consistent strength given the club’s lackluster lineup and bullpen.  Alek Manoah also pitched reasonably well in five starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he is aiming to be back in the rotation by August.  Adding another starter, of course, would only deepen and help solidify this group.  Bringing a new starter into the rotation would push Rodriguez into relief duty, thus addressing another need by bringing another quality arm into the bullpen mix.

The question remains, however, whether the Blue Jays are looking to supplement this group with more of a frontline type of pitcher like Flaherty, or if they’re looking at more of a back-end hurler for what is technically a fifth starter’s role on paper.  The former would require another significant investment in a starting pitcher, on the heels of Berrios’ hefty extension, big free agent deals for Gausman and Bassitt, plus the $32MM Toronto spent to sign Rodriguez a year ago.

Between their big offers to Burnes and Juan Soto, the Jays front office clearly has some money available to spend, even though Toronto already has around $218MM on the books for 2025 and a luxury-tax number of $245MM (estimates courtesy of RosterResource).  What remains unclear is whether or not GM Ross Atkins was given the green light to stretch the budget in general, or just for special cases like Soto or Burnes.  There’s also the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is looking for a mega-contract of his own as he approaches free agency, and there is reportedly a sizable gap between the Jays and the star first baseman in extension talks.

Flaherty is reportedly open to a shorter-term contract with opt-outs, though such a deal would still require a sizable average annual value.  Pivetta is surely also looking for a significant salary, plus he would also cost the Blue Jays $500K in int’l pool money and the team’s second-highest pick in the 2025 draft since Pivetta rejected Boston’s qualifying offer.  Pivoting away from these bigger names in the pitching market or perhaps obtaining a starter in a trade might be more of a feasible path for the Jays if they instead opted to spend more heavily in offense, such as rumored targets Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso.

In terms of other expenditures this offseason, the Blue Jays also signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33MM deal, and took on the remaining $97.5MM on Andres Gimenez’s contract after acquiring the second baseman from the Guardians.  Another $11MM was also taken on in the form of Myles Straw’s contract in yesterday’s trade with Cleveland for $2MM in international bonus pool space, which already looks like a misstep since that $2MM was earmarked for the failed bid for Sasaki.  A rival executive described the Straw trade in pretty blunt terms to Nicholson-Smith, calling the deal as a “masterclass [for Cleveland] to dump off so much money,” as “the Guardians knew [the Jays] were desperate.”

It was another tough blow to a Jays franchise that is facing as much pressure to win as any in baseball, given 2024’s disappointing 74-88 record and the looming free agency of Guerrero and Bo Bichette next winter.  Several holes and unanswered questions remain on the roster, and while there is still plenty of time in the offseason to make moves, Atkins’ efforts won’t be helped by the increased public perception that the Jays “need” to do something big.  Such a perception gives other front offices leverages in trade talks with the Jays, and player agents leverage in contract negotiations.

Blue Jays Remain In Talks With Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays have been tied to Anthony Santander as much as any team in recent weeks. While there’s still no agreement in place, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that the Jays’ talks with the free agent slugger “picked up” this morning.

Toronto is reeling from another near-miss on a top free agent. Their talks with Roki Sasaki were never linked to the possibility of a Santander move. Sasaki’s hard-capped bonus meant that his decision would not have impacted the Jays’ big league payroll. Still, his decision to sign with the Dodgers leaves the Jays without a headlining free agent acquisition this winter. Their big splash on the open market was the three-year, $33MM deal for reliever Jeff Hoffman. Toronto’s most significant move has come via trade, as they took on the remaining five years of the Andrés Giménez contract from the Guardians.

Giménez is a defensive stalwart at second base, but he doesn’t provide a huge boost offensively. The Jays sorely need a power bat, in particular. They were in the bottom five of MLB in home runs last season. Their .389 team slugging percentage was 20th. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 30 home runs; no one else on the team had more than 19 longballs. They’re only returning three hitters who slugged over .400: Guerrero, Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho. Clement is generally a light-hitting utilityman, while Varsho is expected to open the season on the injured list after undergoing rotator cuff surgery in September.

The switch-hitting Santander has four 20-homer seasons under his belt. He has connected on at least 28 longballs in each of the last three years, including a personal-high 44 last season. Santander hit .235/.308/.506 across 665 plate appearances in his walk year for the Orioles. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani had more home runs a season ago.

Toronto has also been linked to Pete Alonso in recent days. Alonso is the only other unsigned free agent who rivals or tops Santander’s power. The latter is a cleaner positional fit. While Alonso would either need to serve as a designated hitter or force the Jays to move Guerrero to third base fairly frequently, Santander would slot into the corner outfield. The Jays don’t have a clear starter in left field. George Springer is expected to play right field, but he’s 35 years old and coming off a mediocre season (.220/.303/.371).

The Jays reportedly had an offer out to Santander a couple weeks ago. Clearly, that didn’t meet his asking price at the time. The Athletic reported last week that he may now be open to a shorter-term contract at higher annual values. Earlier in the offseason, Santander was reportedly seeking five years and a deal at or above $100MM.

Poll: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Future With The Blue Jays

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While the Blue Jays have been involved in pursuits of a number of major players this winter ranging from Juan Soto to Corbin Burnes to Roki Sasaki, the number one question hanging over the club’s head this offseason is the same one that’s been at the forefront of fans’ minds for years now: will the Blue Jays be able to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before he reaches free agency? And, if not, what will the club do about it? The question is now more urgent than ever, with just over nine months left until Guerrero is set to file for free agency.

Even Guerrero’s relatively short remaining window of team control doesn’t fully illustrate how quickly the Blue Jays are reaching a crossroads, however. Guerrero has made clear that he set a deadline for negotiations of the first full day of Spring Training with the club’s front office. For the Blue Jays, the first full-squad workout is February 18, almost exactly a month away. If club brass and Guerrero’s camp are going to get a deal done ahead of that deadline, they’ll need to make a great deal of progress over the next month: reporting yesterday indicated that the sides last had extension discussions before Christmas, and it seems as though there was a significant gap in negotiations when the sides withdrew from the negotiating table for the holidays.

According to Guerrero, the Jays have offered him a deal in the vicinity of $340MM, and that this offer came prior to Soto signing with the Mets on a record-shattering $765MM deal last month. Meanwhile, reports have suggested that Guerrero’s asking price is believed to be above $400MM and potentially close to half a billion dollars. That’s no insignificant difference. That gap in negotiations hasn’t led the club to shop Guerrero on the open market to this point, and the club has signaled that they have every intention of keeping their star in the fold for the 2025 season.

That hasn’t stopped teams from inquiring, however. Recent reporting suggested that the Mets have checked in with the Blue Jays on the possibility of a Guerrero trade. That conversation doesn’t seem to have garnered significant traction to this point, and reports have indicated that the Jays would need to be bowled over by an offer that brings in a bigger haul than Soto did last winter to even consider moving Guerrero. That’s an incredibly steep asking price for any rental player, though of course it should be noted that last winter’s Soto deal and this offseason’s Kyle Tucker deal have suggested that some clubs are willing to pay exorbitant prices for star players even when they have just one season of control remaining.

It goes without saying that if the Jays see a path towards an extension with Guerrero before his deadline next month, they seem all but certain to pursue that rather than consider dealing him. Should negotiations fall through, however, it will be worth wondering whether or not the club will be able to build a contender around him in his final year before free agency. Landing Sasaki would surely help with that goal, and the Jays clearly have money to spend in free agency. They’ve been attached to top remaining free agents like Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, and Pete Alonso in recent weeks. All of those names would significantly improve the club, but it’s unlikely any of them individually would do enough to push the Jays from fifth place in the AL East into a playoff spot without significant rebound seasons from established players like Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, and Alejandro Kirk who struggled to produce last year.

If an extension can’t be reached and the Jays don’t have confidence in their ability to build a winning club for 2025, it’s easy to make the argument that the club should at least see what Guerrero could bring back on the trade market. If they find an offer that eclipses the package the Padres received for Soto last winter, it’s easy to imagine that greatly accelerating the club’s return to competitiveness in a post-Guerrero era. That would certainly be preferable to missing the playoffs again in 2025 with Guerrero on the roster and losing him for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick in free agency next winter, though trading Guerrero before the season begins would make a playoff run this year all the more difficult to imagine.

The club could also give itself more time to make a decision by supplementing the roster further throughout the winter in an effort to compete this year and then re-evaluating at the trade deadline. With that said, Guerrero would surely be far less attractive as a trade candidate with just two months of team control remaining. His impact for an acquiring club in 2025 would be reduced if they only had him for the stretch run, and perhaps more importantly it’s all but impossible to imagine him entertaining an extension with a new club that close to free agency. The star slugger is sure to garner a significantly larger return if traded before the season begins, but that would all but close the door on playoff baseball in Toronto this year.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation will play out? Will Guerrero and the Blue Jays come to an agreement on an extension before his deadline next month? And if not, will the Jays trade their star slugger before Opening Day or enter the season with him on the roster? Have your say in the poll below!

Blue Jays Acquire Myles Straw, International Bonus Pool Space From Guardians

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Myles Straw, cash, and some 2025 international bonus pool space from the Guardians, while Cleveland receives a player to be named later or cash in return. Toronto will be receiving $2MM of international pool space, while the team will take on $11MM of the $14.75MM remaining on Straw’s contract through the 2026 season. The Guards will pay the Jays $1MM in 2025, $1MM in 2026, and then $1.75MM at the end of the 2026 season, likely earmarked to cover the $1.75MM buyout of Straw’s $8MM club option for the 2027 season.

With the international pool space, it’s fair to wonder about the Jays and their connection to Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki. He has to choose his next club in less than a week and is subject to the international bonus pool signing rules. It has been reported that the Jays are one of three finalists for his services, alongside the Dodgers and Padres. Nicholson-Smith and Davidi both caution that this deal does not mean Sasaki has made a decision, rather that the Jays are being prepared for the possibility of Sasaki choosing them. It’s possible that the Padres view themselves as now out of the running, as they have reportedly started finalizing deals with other international amateurs, something they had put on hold while waiting for more info.

Unlike most free agents, Sasaki isn’t going to sign with the club that can offer him the most money. Since he is coming over to North America prior to his 25th birthday, having recently turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB’s rules. As such, he is subject to the league’s bonus pool system. Under this system, each team gets a set amount of money to spend on international amateurs each year. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, the 2025 pools are each between $5-8MM. Broadly speaking, the smaller-market clubs get a bit more than the bigger clubs. A club can also lower its pool amount by signing a player that rejected a qualifying offer.

Teams can trade their bonus pool space with each other, in increments of $250K, but a team can’t increase its initial allotment by more than 60%. As such, Sasaki won’t be able to sign for more than a few million bucks. There will also be a posting fee owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, his Nippon Professional Baseball club, though that will also be minimal. If money were his primary motivation, he likely would stayed in Japan until he turned 25. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, which allowed him to secure a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

Sasaki is therefore presumably choosing his next clubs based on other factors. He and his agent Joel Wolfe have been fairly cagey about what those factors might be, leaving baseball fans to speculate. It has been suggested that geography, a team’s pitching development reputation and/or long-term competitive outlook are possible factors, though those are mostly guesses.

Though money won’t be the main factor, it’s possible that Sasaki and his reps would like a large bonus, simply out of respect and as a reflection of his status. Sasaki is far more coveted than even the top international amateurs from any other year. The vast majority of signees in the pool system are 16-year-olds from Latin America who are years away from contributing and come with the standard uncertainties that are present with even the best prospects. The best of those guys can sometimes get bonuses of $5MM or more. The Mets gave Elian Peña $5MM this week, the top bonus for an international signing of this year so far.

Sasaki, on the other hand, is viewed as a plug-and-play ace. He already has four years of experience in Japan, having posted a 2.10 earned run average in that time. Though he doesn’t have the ability to ask for Yamamoto money, perhaps he and his reps want to at least get to something in the $6-10MM range so that he at least gets the symbolic victory of being the top bonus of his class.

The Jays started with a pool of $6,261,600. The Dodgers had their pool dropped by $1MM for signing Shohei Ohtani, since he rejected a qualifying offer and they were a competitive balance tax payor in 2023, winding up at $5,146,200. Since the Jays are allowed to increase their pool by 60%, they can theoretically get that number as high as $10,018,560. This deal gets them up to $8,261,600.

In a normal year, all 30 MLB clubs would announced most of their signings on the first day of the international signing period on January 15. That’s because most of these bonuses have been negotiated years in advance. However, Sasaki’s presence has thrown a wrench into the normal operation of things. The Jays, Dodgers and Padres have reportedly been holding off on finalizing their international signings as they await Sasaki’s decision. His posting window closes January 23, so resolution will have to come soon. As mentioned, the Padres are reportedly going to start finalizing some of their international agreements. That doesn’t mean they are definitely out on Sasaki but is obviously a different approach to what the Jays are doing now.

Time will tell whether this extra pool space can help the Jays at all in signing Sasaki, but it suggests they still view it as a possibility. If Sasaki ends up signing elsewhere, they could perhaps try to trade some of that pool space later or use it in a different way. The Sasaki situation has also thrown a few other things into disarray, as a few prospects that were committed to the Dodgers ultimately pivoted to sign elsewhere, not wanting to wait around. Darell Morel, Oscar Patiño and Teilon Serrano each walked away from the Dodgers to sign with the Pirates, White Sox and Twins, respectively. As this game of musical chairs plays out, it’s possible that there will be some interesting ways to use pool space, even without Sasaki.

To get that extra pool space, the Jays are taking a dead-money contract off the Guardians’ hands. Straw signed a five-year, $25MM extension with the Guardians in April 2022 that covered the 2022-27 seasons, plus the $8MM club option for 2027 and an $8.5MM club option ($500K buyout) for 2028.

These options are almost sure to be declined since Straw’s performance dropped up almost immediately after he signed the extension. An elite defender and runner, Straw had passable offense for a while but fell off a cliff. Through the end of 2021, he had a .265/.343/.341 batting line and 94 wRC+. But in the past three years, that line has been a dismal .229/.295/.284, which translates to a 67 wRC+. He also hit .240/.321/.329 in Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 72.

His previous level of offense was still subpar but it made him a useful player when combined with his glovework and baserunning. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.0 wins above replacement in 2021, for instance. But the dropoff at the plate made Straw unrosterable, so the Guardians have outrighted him off their 40-man multiple times.

Since Straw has more than three years of service time, he can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. But since his service clock is still short of five years, heading to the open market would mean forfeiting what’s left of his contract. He wasn’t on their roster at the time of the trade and therefore won’t have a spot with the Jays.

Though it’s mostly a salary dump, it’s possible the Jays could envision a path to Straw helping their big league team. Daulton Varsho is the club’s primary center fielder but he is recovering from shoulder surgery and might miss Opening Day. If that comes to pass, it’s possible Straw could help give the Jays a glove-first cover option until Varsho is ready, perhaps in a fourth outfielder role. Straw’s service time count is currently at four years and 125 days. A new “year” rolls over at 172 days, meaning Straw is 47 shy of the five-year mark. That makes it possible for the Jays to roster Straw for a few weeks and send him back off the roster again, knowing that he will clear waivers and accept an outright assignment.

For the Guardians, this is the second time this offseason that they have dumped a notable contract on the Jays. Just over a month ago, the Guards sent Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin to Toronto in exchange for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell, with Horwitz later flipped to the Pirates. Giménez is still guaranteed $97.5MM over the five years left on his extension.

Between Giménez and Straw, the Guards have sent $113MM of future payroll commitments north of the border. They did lose a useful player in Giménez but likely feel they have plenty of internal infield options to make up for his absence. They also lost Sandlin but they had the best bullpen in the league in 2024 and should have a strong relief corps without him. Straw wasn’t really in their plans. In short, they probably feel like the roster isn’t much worse, with now a great change in their financial picture.

Sacrificing $2MM of pool space will limit what they can do in that arena, but it’s theoretically possible that they can make up for that somewhat with the overall improvement in their ability to spend. Looking at the RosterResource page, they now have very few commitments apart from the José Ramírez deal.

Whether they will actually use that to upgrade the major league team or not is a fair question. The club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, now known as Main Street Sports, has fallen apart. The Guards are now set to go into 2025 with MLB handling their broadcasts, which will almost certainly lead to less revenue coming in. On the other hand, they just engineered a surprise division win in 2024 and could have put some extra playoff revenue in the bank. RosterResource currently projects them for a payroll of about $91MM this year, which is a bit below the $98MM Opening Day figure that Cot’s Baseball Contracts gave them a year ago.

For the Jays, the Straw deal nudges their payroll up but only slightly. They reportedly made a strong offer to Corbin Burnes a few weeks ago, which was likely north of $30MM annually. He ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks for $210MM over six years, an average annual value of $35MM, though there are deferrals that knock those number down in terms of net present value. Still, the Jays were probably at least in that range. They have since added Jeff Hoffman, a three-year, $33MM deal with an AAV of $11MM. Straw’s deal will add another few million but perhaps there’s still some powder dry. The club has been tied to most of the top free agents still available, including Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander and Nick Pivetta.

Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi (multiple links) reported that the Blue Jays were getting $2MM in pool space, and the $3.75MM figure contributed by the Guardians to Straw’s salary.  The Athletic’s Zack Meisel had the breakdown of how the $3.75MM would be allotted over the course of Straw’s remaining contract.

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