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Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, there figure to be several players agreeing to pre-tender deals to avoid arbitration today. Many players who agree to terms prior to the deadline will be fringe non-tender candidates and, as such, are likelier to sign for less than they’d been projected in order to avoid a non-tender. We’ll keep track of today’s players who are avoiding arbitration in this post (with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…

  • The Royals announced that they’ve agreed to one-year deals with both Cheslor Cuthbert and Jesse Hahn. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (via Twitter) that Cuthbert will earn $850K, while Hahn’s deal contains an $800K base salary. Both were definitive non-tender candidates, as Cuthbert batted just .194/.282/.301 in 117 plate appearances this past season. Hahn, meanwhile, didn’t pitch in 2018 due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament that ultimately required “primary repair” surgery — a similar, but less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that is perhaps familiar to Royals fans after Seth Maness previously underwent the procedure.

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Royals Claim Conner Greene, Designate Burch Smith For Assignment

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The Royals announced that they’ve claimed right-hander Conner Greene off waivers from the Cardinals. He’d been designated for assignment last week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Kansas City designated righty Burch Smith for assignment.

Greene, 23, was acquired alongside Dominic Leone in last offseason’s Randal Grichuk trade. The former seventh-round pick’s longstanding control issues didn’t improve in his lone season with the Cards, as Greene walked 63 batters in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He hasn’t had much success in the minors since the 2016 season, but the Royals will hope that another change of scenery brings about more favorable results in 2019.

The 28-year-old Smith was one of two Rule 5 picks carried on the roster by the Royals for the entire 2018 season, but his results paled in comparison to those of fellow Rule 5-er Brad Keller. In 78 innings, Smith limped to a 6.92 ERA, and while he averaged nearly a strikeout per inning, he also averaged 4.6 walks per nine innings pitched. Smith’s ability to miss bats has long been intriguing, but his career has been slowed by control issues and injury troubles — most notably Tommy John surgery.

Royals Hire Mike Matheny As Special Advisor

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The Royals announced that they’ve hired former Cardinals manager Mike Matheny as a special advisor to the team’s player development staff St. Louis fired Matheny in July despite the fact that he was signed through the 2020 season.

“This is a great opportunity to have Mike become a member of our organization,” said Royals general manager Dayton Moore in a statement announcing the move. “It has always been our policy to hire the best baseball people we can and this is a perfect example of that. Mike has contributed so much to our game as both a player and a manager and has a wealth of knowledge that can only make us better. I’m excited about the possibilities of what he’ll bring to our organization.”

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch linked the Royals to Matheny back in August, and several reports since that time have suggested that he could end up with the Kansas City organization in an advisory capacity. He’ll now join Moore and have a bit of a hand in scouting and player development efforts.

While there’s no firm indication that Matheny will be considered for managerial openings in Kansas City down the line, Goold did note in the aforementioned report that Matheny would like to manage again, and it’s worth noting that current skipper Ned Yost is only signed through the 2019 season. Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggested last month that the 2019 season could be Yost’s final as a manager, and Yost himself has hinted at a similar timeline in the past.

Certainly, there’ll be speculation about the possibility of Matheny being groomed as a successor to Yost — as was the case with Brad Ausmus after he was hired by the Angels in a similar capacity last winter — though that’s hardly a foregone conclusion. The Reds, for instance, added John Farrell to their front office last offseason, and while he was indeed considered for their managerial vacancy, that post eventually went to David Bell.

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

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Tonight marks the deadline for players to be added to their respective organizations’ 40-man rosters. Over the nine hours, there’ll be a flurry of moves, ranging from minor trades (like the one the Indians and Rays made yesterday), waiver claims and players being designated for assignment or outrighted. Each will be made to clear room for players who need protection from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. As a reminder, players who signed at 18 years of age or younger and have five professional seasons are eligible, as are players who signed at 19 or older and have four professional seasons under their belts.

Here’s a rundown of players who’ve been added to their respective 40-man rosters (which will be updated throughout the day)…

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Trueblood Examines Merrifield's Power Profile

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  • Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus takes an interesting look at Whit Merrifield’s offensive profile, noting that while the Royals’ unsung star doesn’t rate especially well in terms of Statcast metrics like average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, some of his shortcomings can arguably be attributed to the pitfalls of averages and extremes. Merrifield ranked well when looking at incidents of a 95+ mph batted ball with a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees, and when adding plate appearances that resulted in walks to the equation, he ranked more than 200 places higher than he did in bottom-line average exit velocity. It’s a very intriguing read on one of the game’s most underrated players and a player who could likely fetch a fortune on the trade market. Of course, both Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star and Rustin Dodd of The Athletic have each recently penned lengthy examinations on why the Royals aren’t likely to trade Merrifield this winter, even though they look unlikely to contend in a weak AL Central division in the near future.

Royals Sign Michael Ynoa

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  • The Royals announced that they’ve signed right-hander Michael Ynoa to a minor league contract. There’s no mention of an invite to Major League Spring Training. Ynoa, now 27, signed a hefty $4.25MM bonus with Oakland as an amateur back in 2008. He never found his footing in the organization, though, and was traded to the White Sox alongside Jeff Samardzija in the deal that brought Marcus Semien to Oakland. Ynoa made his big league debut with the ChiSox in 2016 and pitched to a 4.42 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 5.9 BB/9 in 59 innings of work from 2016-17. He was out of affiliated ball entirely last year and is currently pitching in the Dominican Winter League, where he’s allowed just one run on four hits and four walks with 13 punchouts in 10 1/3 innings.

Why The Royals Probably Won't Trade Whit Merrfield

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  • Whit Merrifield is arguably the Royals’ biggest trade chip, though the team’s lack of interest in dealing him is indicative of GM Dayton Moore’s unique team-building process, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes.  On paper, a player who turns 30 in January doesn’t have much long-term value to a Royals team that has 2021 as its internal start date to once again be competitive.  Moore, however, has spoken openly about how disappointing the 2018 season was for the Royals, and he has been hesitant to enter into a full rebuild.  As Mellinger puts it, “holding onto Merrifield serves several purposes simultaneously: projects hope and confidence to players and fans, helps maintain culture of professionalism in the clubhouse, creates the best possible team for 2019, provides time to see what might be needed in a few years, and retains the ability to trade a presumably still valuable asset next summer or winter.”

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Orioles are the only team in baseball that lost more games than the Royals in 2018, but the Kansas City organization has suggested it doesn’t plan to embark on a lengthy rebuild featuring multiple years of tanking. Significant improvement, however, remains a tall order for general manager Dayton Moore and his staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

[Kansas City Royals depth chart | Kansas City Royals payroll]

Free Agents

The Royals lost an abysmal 104 games in 2018. While it was never expected that they’d contend for a division title, general manager Dayton Moore expressed open disappointment and frustration with his team’s noncompetitive nature — both in the days leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline and again, more emphatically, after the conclusion of the season. “I think when you create a mindset that we’re rebuilding, you somehow build in or make an excuse that’s it’s OK to lose baseball games,” said Moore when speaking to reporters in mid-October. “It’s not. … That’s our responsibility — to win games.”

If Moore’s comments do indeed indicate that he’ll make a concerted effort to make the Royals a more competitive club in 2019, he could be walking a fine line. The Royals are reportedly aiming to cut payroll by as much as $35MM next season after spending at record levels, and that won’t leave Moore with a great deal of flexibility when pursuing upgrades. Much of the payroll cutting can be accomplished organically; the contracts of Hammel, Brandon Moss and Travis Wood are now all off the books, while 2018-19 free agents such as Kelvin Herrera, Mike Moustakas, Lucas Duda and Jon Jay were moved during the season — most with some degree of salary relief being included in the deal. The Royals, Moore explained in July, deliberately sought players who were MLB-ready or close to it (e.g. Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kelvin Gutierrez) — a further sign that ownership and management don’t want to see another prolonged stretch of futility.

The Royals have also already cut ties with would-be arbitration-eligible players like Nate Karns and Brandon Maurer, further reducing their 2019 payroll projections. At present, between the six guaranteed deals referenced above, the three arb-eligibles remaining and another 14 pre-arbitration players to round out the 25-man roster, Kansas City projects to enter the season with a payroll just north of $90MM. As such, they’re already looking at a savings of roughly $31.5MM over their 2018 Opening Day payroll. That falls within the reported $30-35MM target range, but doesn’t leave for much in the way of free-agent pickups or added salary on the trade market.

That’s not to say, of course, that the Royals are precluded from adding any pieces at all. Perhaps ownership recognizes that it’s simply not possible to add much to this roster, as currently constructed, and keep payroll in the $90MM range. Perhaps the front office will be permitted to apply any savings accrued in last year’s midseason trades toward the 2019 payroll. (The Royals, for instance, saved more than $4MM by trading Herrera to the Nationals in early June.) Kansas City has also habitually backloaded contracts during Moore’s time as GM — often utilizing mutual options with relatively notable buyouts as an accounting measure to effectively defer some of the guaranteed portion of the deal. Moustakas, Hammel, Moss, Wood, Mike Minor, Chris Young, Edinson Volquez, Joakim Soria and Kendrys Morales all had mutual options on their free-agent pacts with the Royals.

It doesn’t seem reasonable to expect that the Royals will add much salary to the books in 2019, but if we see yet another offseason of somewhat creative spending out of Kauffman Stadium, there are a few obvious areas of upgrade — starting with the bullpen. Kansas City, at present, will have Peralta back in a late-inning role after he enjoyed a rebound year, to an extent. The former Brewers starter posted a solid 3.67 ERA and averaged better than a strikeout per inning but also walked 23 batters in 34 1/3 innings. Beyond him, Flynn and Tim Hill are options from the left side while Jesse Hahn, Kevin McCarthy, Burch Smith and Jorge Lopez are options from the right side. With Hahn, Lopez and Flynn all out of minor league options, they’ll need to make the roster in some capacity or be exposed to waivers.

When a bullpen’s most established figure walked more than six batters per nine innings the season prior, there’s obviously plenty in the way of openings. It’d be a surprise to see the Royals spend on top-tier relief arms or even those in the second tier of free agents, but the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium and the allure of guaranteed innings could help draw rebound candidates like David Phelps and Drew Storen (2017 Tommy John surgery) or AJ Ramos and Carson Smith (2018 shoulder surgery). Relievers coming off down seasons (e.g. Tyler Lyons, Justin Wilson) could make some sense, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a backloaded two-year pact for a solid but non-elite reliever coming off a quality season — someone in the Bud Norris vein, perhaps. There’s little reason for the Royals not to be active on the waiver wire and in offering minor league pacts with Spring Training invites, as well.

In the rotation, things look to be more set. Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jakob Junis and Brad Keller (arguably the most successful pick in last year’s Rule 5 Draft) figure to have rotation spots more or less set in stone. Hahn, Lopez, Heath Fillmyer and Trevor Oaks are among the options in the fifth spot. That said, the back of the rotation does present the Royals with the opportunity to promise some innings to rebound candidate with some upside; Drew Pomeranz, Lance Lynn and Tyson Ross could all make some level of sense in that five spot.

As for the more expensive names who are already penciled into rotation slots, it seems rather unlikely that the Royals would move them. Selling low on Duffy, a core piece who a season ago looked like a solid trade chip, would be difficult for the Royals, and it’s unlikely that they’d be able to accomplish that goal without absorbing some of the $46MM remaining on his deal. Financial help would be all the more required to move Kennedy, who has floundered through 52 starts and allowed 54 home runs through 273 1/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Meanwhile, the lineup is perhaps a bit more set than some would expect. Salvador Perez is entrenched at catcher and unlikely to be traded despite the fact that there’d be interest. Whit Merrifield has quietly emerged as one of the better all-around players in the American League (9.4 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR over the past two seasons), while his double-play partner, Adalberto Mondesi, hit .276/.306/.498 with 14 homers and 32 steals in just 75 games last year. Mondesi badly needs to improve his plate discipline (3.8 percent walk rate, 37.1 percent chase rate, 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate), but he clearly has some pop and isn’t lacking in baserunning or defensive chops. At first base, Ryan O’Hearn emerged late in the season and bludgeoned right-handed pitching at a .313/.403/.705 clip. Some regression is coming, but he could be paired with an affordable righty free-agent pickup late in the season to form a platoon. Hunter Dozier and Cheslor Cuthbert remain on hand as internal options for that role, but neither has hit in the Majors to date — even in favorable platoon matchups.

Looking to the outfield, Gordon is assured of his spot in left field. While his four-year, $72MM contract has been a flop, Gordon remains a premium defender in left and had his best year at the plate since 2015 this past season. Center field isn’t exactly a certainty, but the organization likely wants to get a further look at rocket-armed Brett Phillips, who opened eyes with three highlight-reel outfield assists in 33 games but hit just .188/.252/.313 in 123 PAs after being acquired for Moustakas. The former top 100 prospect is strikeout-prone but nonetheless brings an exciting skill-set to the outfield. Jorge Bonifacio should see some time in right field, perhaps in a split with left-handed-hitting Brian Goodwin, who can handle all three outfield spots. If that group proves unable to cut it, Merrifield has proven versatile enough to handle some time in the outfield and could shift off second base if prospect Nicky Lopez hits his way to the big leagues.

There’s room for Kansas City to add some depth in the outfield, but they have enough relatively young options that it probably won’t be deemed a priority. Still, given the manner in which some outfielders have been squeezed out in free agency in recent offseasons, if there’s an intriguing veteran available on a one-year deal or on a non-roster invite in February or early March, the Royals could act opportunistically (as they did with Jon Jay last winter).

Beyond a platoon partner for O’Hearn at first base and perhaps a backup to Perez at catcher — Cam Gallagher has not hit much, and depth is thin beyond him — third base is the most apparent spot for the Royals to upgrade. Cuthbert and Dozier, the top internal options, simply have not delivered at the plate in the Majors. Cuthbert has tallied 830 PAs with just a .252/.303/.378 slash to show for his efforts, while Dozier has batted .228/.279/.388 in 409 PAs.

Perhaps it’s too much to expect the same result for a second consecutive season, but the Royals once again seem like a logical landing spot for Moustakas in free agency. With no qualifying offer attached to him this time around and a better defensive showing with his 2016 ACL surgery further behind him, it seems likely that Moose will land a multi-year deal this time around. It’d be easy enough to backload that deal to go easy on the ’19 payroll, especially considering the fact that Gordon’s deal will come off the books in the 2019-20 offseason. If not Moustakas, veterans like Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison and Asdrubal Cabrera could be options. If the Royals can look beyond his off-the-field issues, perhaps Jung Ho Kang could fit there on a short-term deal as well.

Regardless of the moves made by the Kansas City front office this winter, it’s difficult to see the Royals contending in 2019. Moore has plainly stated that his top priority is to improve the team’s farm system, but he’s coupled that with simultaneous desire to win more games. It’s a dichotomous pair of goals, and in recent baseball history, most teams (particularly, those with lesser resources) have focused on one or the other — either being content to accept some losing years in the short term in exchange for a prolonged run of success or showing a willingness to mortgage some of the future for a chance at immediate glory. The Royals, though, appear as though they’ll strive for some incremental improvements without detracting from the minor league ranks. Even though it’s hard to envision the strategy leading to a 2019 winner, despite a weak division, expect the Royals to add some second- and third-tier free agents to the margins of the roster as they aim to put a miserable 104-loss season behind them.

Royals Outright Brandon Maurer, Paulo Orlando, Ramon Torres

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The Royals announced Friday that right-hander Brandon Maurer, outfielder Paulo Orlando and infielder Ramon Torres all cleared outright waivers. Maurer has already rejected his outright assignment in favor of free agency, while both Orlando and Torres will become minor league free agents tomorrow. In a series of corresponding moves, Kansas City activated Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert and Jesse Hahn from the 60-day disabled list. The Royals’ 40-man roster sits at 37 players after these moves.

None of the 40-man subtractions come as much of a surprise. Maurer has spent parts of the past two season in the Kansas City bullpen but struggled to catastrophic levels, yielding 45 earned runs, 36 walks and 11 home runs in just 51 1/3 innings pitched. Though he’s shown the ability to miss bats, he’s far too hittable and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn as much as $3.1MM in arbitration this winter.

Orlando, 33, hit just .167/.194/.200 in 93 plate appearances with Kansas City this year and has never replicated the BABIP-fueled 2016 season he enjoyed when he hit .302/.329/.405. Orlando has drawn walks at a 2.4 percent clip in his career, one of the lowest marks in all of baseball, and is a career .263/.289/.384 hitter. He brings his share of speed to the table, though that hasn’t been enough to outweigh his otherwise lackluster offensive output.

Torres, 25, has seen action in each of the past two seasons but mustered a timid .225/.269/.265 slash in that time. His .230/.279/.343 showing in Triple-A this season gave little reason for optimism, though at the very least he does offer some versatility with the glove, having experience at second base, shortstop and third base.

Nate Karns Elects Free Agency

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The Royals announced that right-hander Nate Karns has rejected an outright assignment to Triple-A Omaha after clearing waivers. He’ll elect free agency instead and can now sign with any team.

Karns, 31 next month, didn’t make it back to the mound in 2018 after seeing his 2017 season cut short by surgery to alleviate throacic outlet syndrome. The righty has shown promise as a potential back-end starter at times in the Majors, including a 2015 campaign in which he notched a 3.67 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 147 innings with the Rays. Those 147 frames stand out as a career-high in the Majors for Karns, though, and while he gave Kansas City a respectable 4.17 ERA in 45 1/3 innings in 2017, his last time on a big league mound was nearly 18 months ago (May 19, 2017).

The Royals agreed to pay Karns a $1.375MM salary for the 2018 season last winter, avoiding arbitration in his first offseason of eligibility. But he’d have been arb-eligible for a second time this winter and would’ve received that same sum while carrying considerably more uncertainty as pertains to his health.

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