Kenley Jansen

Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen passed on the opportunity to opt out of the final two years and $38MM on his five-year, $80MM contract, as was first reported a few days back by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

It’s not a surprising decision in the least. Now 32 years old, Jansen has seen his velocity and his results decline in each of the past two seasons, and he assuredly would have been in line to receive less than $38MM on the open market.

Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates remain excellent (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he’s become more hittable and more homer-prone over the past 15 months in particular. Jansen carried a 2.28 ERA and a 57-to-13 K/BB ratio through 51 1/3 innings into the month of August in 2018. From that point forth, however, he surrendered 11 earned runs on the strength of seven homers in his final 20 1/3 innings. He was sharp through the NLDS and NLCS last season before being tagged with a pair of blown saves in the team’s World Series loss to Boston.

The 2019 season was Jansen’s worst as a Major Leaguer. In 63 regular-season innings, he was tagged for a 3.71 ERA with nine homers surrendered. Dating back to last August, Jansen’s overall regular-season numbers are wholly unremarkable; he’s tallied 83 1/3 innings with an even 4.00 ERA. And despite his robust strikeout totals in that time, he’s yielded an average of 1.73 homers per nine innings pitched.

Perhaps a correction of this year’s explosive ball will prove beneficial, but it’s also worth noting that Jansen’s homer troubles were greater in 2018 than in 2019. At this point, with his once-94.3 mph cutter checking in at an average of 92.1 mph, it’s equally possible that Jansen simply won’t return to the dominant force he once was. His K/BB rates still give him a chance to be a quality late-inning arm, but he’ll need to curtail the home runs to some extent — even if he can’t return to his 2016-17 form, when he yielded just nine home runs over a span of 137 innings. He’ll earn $19MM in each of the next two seasons, but in spite of that salary, the Dodgers may be forced to push him into a lower-leverage role and alter the manner in which they handle their highest-leverage situations moving forward.

Not long ago, it would been almost impossible to imagine anyone but Kenley Jansen serving as the Dodgers’ closer. But after an uncharacteristically pedestrian 2019 season for the long-dominant right-hander, Jansen may not be a lock for the role next year. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Monday that Jansen’s still the team’s closer as of now, but LA “will see how things play out” in regards to the job (Twitter link via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).

Whether the 32-year-old Jansen will even be a Dodger in 2020 isn’t necessarily etched in stone, as he could opt out of the remainder of his contract. In all likelihood, though, Jansen’s going to stay put. Abandoning what’s left of his deal would mean leaving two years and $38MM on the table, which would look like an ill-advised move in the wake of the season Jansen just had.

Jansen earned his current pact – a five-year, $80MM guarantee – on the heels of an otherworldly 2016 showing, and while he continued to thrive the next season, he has been closer to good than elite since 2018. At least in comparison to his past self, Jansen was fairly ordinary this year. He posted a 3.71 ERA/3.48 FIP with 33 saves on 41 tries over 63 innings, giving him a personal-high ERA and a career-worst blown saves total. While Jansen did log 11.43 strikeouts per nine against 2.29 walks – a ratio just about any pitcher would sign up for – it’s not as impressive for a hurler who regularly posted a K/9 in the 13-14 range during his halcyon days.

Jansen was a key factor for the Dodgers in past playoff runs, but that wasn’t the case this year during their first-round loss to the Nationals. He threw just 1 2/3 innings during the Dodgers’ five-game defeat, including two-thirds of a frame in the decisive matchup of the series. By then, the Dodgers were already down 7-3 after an implosion from Joe Kelly.

Even though Jansen seemingly lost some of LA’s trust in 2019, he’s still likely to return as one of the team’s top relievers next season. Jansen and the rest of the club’s bullpen faced their fair share of scrutiny throughout the campaign, though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dodgers make a noteworthy effort to improve the unit over the winter. If the Dodgers end up in the market for a new closer, Aroldis Chapman (should he opt out of his Yankees deal) and Will Smith stand out as a couple potential free agents who could give the club an end-of-game upgrade over Jansen.

By Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen’s lofty standards, this has been a difficult season. In his latest appearance Wednesday, the 31-year-old allowed a ninth-inning solo home run en route to a blown save against the Blue Jays. The juggernaut Dodgers still went on to another victory, but Jansen’s seemingly one of their few players who hasn’t enjoyed a stellar season.

Jansen has already surrendered the second-most homers of his career (eight) and racked up his second-highest total of blown saves (six, in 32 chances) through 48 2/3 innings in 2019. And while most relievers would be satisfied with Jansen’s 3.70 ERA/3.58 FIP, those numbers rank among career worsts for a hurler who has logged a stingy 2.32 ERA/2.24 FIP since debuting in 2011.

Jansen’s dip in performance (which dates back to last year) is among the reasons the Dodgers’ bullpen has been shaky at times this season. But there’s no imminent end-of-game change coming for Los Angeles, manager Dave Roberts explained to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, saying he’s “not tempted” to remove Jansen as closer. The two did, however, have a “long” meeting after Wednesday’s game, reports Plunkett, who writes that Jansen also met with Dodgers president Andrew Friedman. Jansen indicated Roberts and Friedman gave him votes of confidence, but Roberts acknowledged that if things don’t turn around in the coming weeks, “then there should be a conversation and then I will have to make a decision.”

For now, Roberts is betting on improvement from the three-time All-Star, as is Jansen himself. “I’m going to be there” in the ninth, said Jansen, who insisted he’s not worried about his status. Despite his issues this year, Jansen has still posted some of the top numbers of anyone in LA’s bullpen. When it comes to regular Dodgers relievers, only Pedro Baez and Julio Urias have bettered Jansen at preventing runs (though Joe Kelly has overcome a rough start to dominate in recent weeks), and no one on the team rivals Jansen’s wealth of game-ending experience.

Back in 2017, Jansen enjoyed one of the single greatest seasons any reliever has ever delivered. He fired 68 1/3 innings of 1.32 ERA/1.31 FIP ball, recording 14.36 K/9 against 0.92 BB/9 with 41 saves on 42 tries. That near-unbeatable version of Jansen also registered a career-best 18.2 swinging-strike rate, relying on his signature cutter 85.4 percent of the time (per Statcast) to stymie the opposition. That pitch is no longer as formidable, though, and Jansen has turned to it less as a result. He has gone to it at a 76.7 percent rate this year, filling in the other 23.3 percent with a four-seamer and a slider that he has relied on to almost matching extents.

Jansen’s velocity on his cutter, four-seamer and slider has fallen in comparison to his dream ’17 season, but that’s not to say hitters have teed off on any of them. In fact, according to Statcast, Jansen has produced above-average results with each offering. Unsurprisingly, the .287 weighted on-base average hitters have managed against him trumps his .263 expected wOBA – the latter of which ranks in the majors’ 93rd percentile. Jansen’s also near the summit of the league in strikeout percentage (91st percentile; he has fanned 11.04 per nine while walking only 2.03), fastball spin (96th percentile), hard-hit rate allowed (97th percentile) and average exit velocity against (99th percentile; 84.5 mph).

By Statcast’s metrics, not to mention Jansen’s 17th-ranked swinging-strike percentage (16.1), he’s still either an elite reliever or close to it. Although he’s not the Jansen who steamrolled hitters two years ago, “He doesn’t need to be the ’17 Kenley,” according to Roberts. “He needs to be the best of what he is today and going forward.”