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Looking For A Match In A Trade

Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade

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After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.

While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.

While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.

Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.

The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…

Best Fits:

  • Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
  • Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
  • Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
  • Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.

Next Tier Down:

  • Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
  • Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
  • Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
  • Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
  • Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
  • Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.

Looking For A Match In A Manuel Margot Trade

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With the Rays facing a projected payroll that’s nearly 50% higher than their current franchise-record, they’re widely expected to make several deals in order to scale back their spending. That’s not to say Tampa Bay is embarking on any sort of rebuild, as machinations of this nature are the norm for a Rays club that regularly churns the top end of its roster and cashes in veteran players for controllable young talent. Among the early trade candidates on the Rays’ roster this offseason, is outfielder Manuel Margot — as discussed here yesterday. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi adds that Tampa Bay has discussed the 29-year-old with multiple teams within the past two weeks.

Margot isn’t coming off a great year and is slated to earn $10MM in 2024 before he reaches free agency next winter. As such, it’s only natural that he’s among the names the Rays are peddling as they look to retool the roster, scale back payroll and simultaneously remain competitive. The Rays have Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and several utility types who can handle both the infield and outfield. The possibility of trading Margot and bringing in a backup outfielder (via trade or free agency) at a lower salary point remains.

Margot’s .264/.310/.376 batting line in 336 plate appearances this past season is right in line with the .264/.317/.375 line he’s posted in four total seasons as a member of the Rays. It checked in a bit below average, albeit not egregiously so.

Had Margot enjoyed a season of his typical defensive excellence in ’23, that offensive output would’ve made him an above-average all-around contributor. But Margot missed the bulk of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his usual strong (at times elite) defensive grades slipped closer to average. Statcast noted that Margot’s range and sprint speed both declined in 2023, which perhaps isn’t all that surprising for a player coming off a major knee injury. The question for potential trade partners is whether Margot can be expected to rebound to his previous defensive heights or whether this is the new norm moving forward.

Clubs will likely have varying opinions on that front, though Margot’s overall track record ought to carry some appeal. That’s especially true in a thin free-agent market for outfielders. Not every team will want to pursue a nine-figure deal with Cody Bellinger, and some teams might well be turned off by the possibility of overcommitting to Kevin Kiermaier on the heels of a strong season. Free agent Harrison Bader offers a similar skill set to Margot and had a better year defensively but lesser year at the plate. Michael A. Taylor has an excellent glove and more pop than Margot but much higher strikeout rates and lower on-base marks.

Given the thin market for proven outfield help, Margot ought to command interest on the trade market — even if the return isn’t enormous. Let’s run through a few potential fits, excluding his AL East rivals. These certainly aren’t the only possible destinations, but any of the following teams make sense as a candidate to target a short-term, versatile option in the outfield:

  • Marlins: Newly minted president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was the Rays’ general manager before being hired by Miami. The Marlins have been on the lookout for a center fielder for the past several years but have struggled to fill the void — so much so that the Fish moved shortstop Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field last year. Miami could line up on a trade bringing Margot aboard to handle center field, thus moving Chisholm back to the infield. The Marlins don’t have an obvious everyday shortstop at present, and the market for quality options at that position is even more barren than in the outfield.
  • Giants: President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has spoken openly about his desire to add some more athleticism and range to his outfield. Even with Margot’s step back in 2023, he still had above-average range and sprint speed. He’d be an upgrade, defensively speaking, over much of the San Francisco outfield mix even if he never fully rediscovers his once-elite range. Margot would allow the Giants to give Luis Matos some extra time in Triple-A after rushing to the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2023. And if Matos eventually forces his way onto the scene, Margot could join Austin Slater and Mitch Haniger as right-handed complements to lefty outfielders like Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto.
  • D-backs: Arizona’s excellent young outfield was a major factor in their unexpected run to the 2023 World Series, but with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hitting the market, the Snakes are once again looking at an all-left-handed mix of Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher. Margot gives them a right-handed option to provide manager Torey Lovullo with some matchup options.
  • Phillies: The Phils currently look as though they’ll give former top prospect Cristian Pache, who’s out of minor league options, another look as a reserve outfielder. Last year’s .238/.319/.417 slash in 95 plate appearances was better than anything Pache has ever done in the big leagues (career .173/.230/.273). Maybe they’ve unlocked something in his offensive profile, but Margot would be more reliable at the plate while still providing a potential righty complement to Brandon Marsh and a late-game defensive upgrade over Nick Castellanos.
  • Mariners: The Mariners and Rays have lined up on approximately six thousand trades since Jerry Dipoto was hired to oversee baseball operations for Seattle, and with a pair of young lefties (Jarred Kelenic, Cade Marlowe) currently slated to patrol the outfield corners in 2024, there’s another potential fit here. Margot would be a younger (and slightly more expensive) veteran to fill the same role the M’s tried for with AJ Pollock in 2023. Perhaps the M’s feel in-house options like Sam Haggerty and/or Dylan Moore can capably handle this role, but Haggerty has never topped 201 plate appearances in a big league seasons, while Moore battled injuries in 2023 and saw an already problematic strikeout rate spike to 34%.
  • Rockies: Brenton Doyle was an elite defender in his debut season but also one of the least-productive hitters in MLB. Nolan Jones, a converted infielder, is the Rockies’ most established outfielder at the moment. Margot could be acquired at a relatively low cost and plugged in as a semi-regular in an outfield that lacks much in the way of certainty. It’s plenty arguable that the Rox shouldn’t be trading anything to acquire short-term pieces like Margot, but they’ve staunchly resisted a rebuild for several years and will probably try to bolster the roster to some extent again this winter.
  • Angels: Mickey Moniak’s breakout season came with massive platoon splits, and Margot would serve as a natural right-handed pairing with the former No. 1 overall pick while providing an alternative in center, should Mike Trout again spend time on the injured list. The Angels have Jo Adell as a potential right-handed complement in the outfield, but Margot is a superior defender who might be better served for such a part-time role.
  • Rangers: Leody Taveras struggled in the second half of the 2023 season, and impressive as Evan Carter was in his late debut and throughout the postseason, he still has all of 147 plate appearances against Major League pitching at just 21 years of age. Margot would give Texas a true fourth outfielder — something they currently lack — in addition to insurance for Carter regression, continued struggles for Taveras or another injury for star right fielder Adolis Garcia.
  • Twins: It might be simpler for the Twins to simply re-sign Taylor, although peak Margot has a better glove and about half the strikeout rate of the Twins’ departing free-agent outfielder. Minnesota is trying to scale back payroll, making this an imperfect fit unless the Rays are interested in taking back some money to fill a need of their own (e.g. Christian Vazquez). Money aside, Margot would offer a natural complement to young lefty outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach while also giving the Twins a capable reserve in center, should Byron Buxton miss time yet again.

Looking For A Match In A Jonathan India Trade

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The Reds enjoyed a youth movement in 2023 as exciting youngsters like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, and Elly De La Cruz helped to push the club into unexpected contention for much of the season, though they ultimately fell short of playoffs with an 82-80 record. The aforementioned names alongside other youngsters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have created something of an infield logjam for the club when taken together, however. The club’s positional mix has gotten crowded enough that the Reds do not expect to have sufficient at-bats available to allow franchise icon Joey Votto to finish his career in Cincinnati, given the roster’s current construction.

The excess of infield options makes it a no-brainer for the Reds to at least consider dealing from that surplus, and the club seemingly did at least listen on offers for 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, who started the season strong with a .271/.355/.439 slash line through 73 games but battled plantar fasciitis throughout the second half, with a slash line of just .201/.312/.356 in 205 trips to the plate the rest of the way. With India unlikely to move off second base in favor of another position on the diamond and the Reds reportedly interested in acquiring additional infield talent it’s fairly reasonable to expect India to once again be available this offseason, particularly given the club’s dire need for a reliable starting pitcher to pair with Hunter Greene at the front of their rotation.

While it might seem prudent to hold onto India in hopes that a full, healthy campaign from the 26-year-old in 2024 could increase his trade value, the sparse free agent class in terms of middle infield options could make India a more valuable commodity on the open market than he might otherwise seem to be. The likes of Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario headline the current class of free agents up the middle, all of whom India outperformed in 2023 even while battling injuries. What’s more, he could even wind up being more financially affordable than those lesser options, as he’s set to make his first trip through arbitration this offseason with an affordable price tag of just $3.7MM projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Adding three years of cost-controlled production from India certainly appears to be an attractive option when compared to a pricier one-year flier on Anderson or a commitment to Merrifield’s age-35 campaign after three consecutive below-average seasons offensively.

So, which teams could be a fit for the Reds to partner up with on a deal? As previously mentioned, India seems to be more or less locked into his role as a regular second baseman, meaning teams with a clear plan at the keystone for 2024 make little sense as a potential fit. That likely eliminates the Astros, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, A’s, Marlins, Rockies, Mets, Angels and Braves as potential suitors, as each of those clubs have either a clearly established second baseman or a surplus of potential infield options of their own. Meanwhile, the Royals and Pirates are unlikely to give up long-term pitching assets to acquire a player who could wind up blocking options within their own systems. That still leaves nine clubs that could feasibly be interested in India’s services this offseason, however. A look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Dodgers: Among the clear best fits for India is the Dodgers, who were forced to move superstar outfielder Mookie Betts to the infield dirt for much of the 2023 season. While he pulled off a multi-positional role with aplomb, a middle infield acquisition that could allow Betts to return to right field full time while alleviating pressure on an infield mix of Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, and Miguel Vargas would make a lot of sense for LA. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have plenty of interesting pitching prospects and young arms that could entice the Reds, such as Nick Frasso, Landon Knack, and Gavin Stone.
  • Mariners: Seattle is another clear fit for India’s services. The Reds and Mariners have gotten together on several deals in recent years, with Cincinnati sending the likes of Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker out west while recouping key prospects such as Noelvi Marte and Brandon Williamson who helped to accelerate the club’s rebuilding process. A cut-and-dry buy-sell trade doesn’t make sense here anymore with both sides hoping to contend in 2023, but the Mariners have interesting young arms like Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock who the Reds would surely be interested in acquiring. Meanwhile, second base was a problem for the Mariners in 2023, and while the addition of Josh Rojas should help shore up the position it’s easy to see how India could make sense for the club as a potential centerpiece of a deal should they decide to part with one of their young arms.
  • White Sox: Though not the obvious contenders that the other teams in this tier are, the White Sox are perhaps most desperate for middle infield help of any club with utility players Lenyn Sosa and Romy Gonzalez projected as their starting double-play duo in 2024 as things stand. They also boast one of the most enticing pitching trade chips on the market this offseason in right-hander Dylan Cease, who is controllable for the next two seasons and boasts a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the last three seasons with a 30% strikeout rate. While a one-for-one swap of the two players seems implausible given Cease’s front-of-the-rotation potential, India could be an intriguing piece for the sides to build a larger return package around given Chicago’s needs up the middle.

Next Tier Down:

  • Blue Jays: Toronto recently lost both Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield to free agency, creating major holes around the club’s infield. With the club firmly in the midst of their window for contention, a deal for three years of India would help solidify second base for the next three seasons while also allowing the club to focus their financial efforts on either re-signing Chapman or pursuing a left-handed outfield bat like Cody Bellinger. That being said, the Jays have some interesting young infielders such as Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement who they may be interested in giving runway to in 2024, and are in need of pitching depth of their own this offseason. While it’s certainly conceivable that the Reds could have interest in Alek Manoah as a potential change-of-scenery candidate, it’s hard to pinpoint what sort of value Manoah would have in trade this offseason on the heels of an incredible 2022 campaign and a disastrous 2023.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are in a precarious spot this offseason, with the club likely to entertain trade offers both on shortstop Willy Adames in addition to righties Corbin Burnes and Adrian Houser. Burnes, of course, would be an incredible addition to the rotation-needy Reds, while the possible departure of Adames would create a clear near for the club up the middle that could be filled by shifting Brice Turang to shortstop and acquiring India to play second base. While the fit between the two clubs is certainly a sensible one on paper, it seems unlikely that the division rivals would get together on a trade of this sort of magnitude barring the Brewers settling on a full-blown rebuild, at which point acquiring a player already into his arbitration years like India makes little sense.
  • Tigers: While Detroit may appear to be something of an unusual fit for India’s services, the club mustered a second place finish in the AL Central last season, suggesting they could be building toward more success in the coming years. While the Tigers are unlikely to be favorites for the AL Central crown in 2024, India’s three seasons of team control make him a solid fit for the club as a clear upgrade over Zack McKinstry at second base. What’s more, the Tigers have a bevy of interesting young arms from which to deal, from the type of controllable, quality arms that would require a larger package like Tarik Skubal to potentially cheaper options like Matt Manning and perhaps even Alex Faedo.

Longer Shots:

  • Red Sox: The Red Sox have a clear need at second base for the 2024 season, and India could certainly make sense to help plug that hole. Unfortunately for Boston, however, the Reds are unlikely to be interested in dealing for a player from the club’s outfield surplus like Alex Verdugo, and the Red Sox are in need of pitching help themselves this offseason. It’s not impossible to imagine a deal coming together centered around mid-rotation veteran Nick Pivetta or a younger arm like Josh Winckoski, but a hypothetical deal is further complicated by the impending arrival of Marcelo Mayer, who alongside Trevor Story would likely kick India over to DH early in his tenure with Boston, likely hampering his value to the Red Sox.
  • Giants: The Giants have Thairo Estrada as a clearly capable regular at second base already, immediately complicating the fit between the two sides. That being said, San Francisco is in clear need of offense, and adding a young, reliable second baseman like India to the club’s infield mix could allow Estrada to take on a multi-positional role. After all, he has experience at shortstop, third base, and both outfield corners in addition to the keystone. It’s hard to imagine the Giants giving up enough near-term pitching to entice the Reds to make a deal, however, given their own need for arms this offseason.
  • Nationals: The Nationals are in the midst of a protracted rebuild, immediately making them something of a dubious fit for a win-now player in his prime such as India. That being said, with three seasons of team control India would likely still be under control when Washington is ready to contend in the coming years. The club has utilized Luis Garcia at second base in recent years, though India would be an upgrade over Garcia, who has experience at shortstop and could potentially be moved elsewhere on the infield, at the keystone offensively. Washington also has a handful of young arms who could be of interest to the Reds, such as Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray, though it’s unclear if the Nationals would have an appetite for dealing a way a controllable arm at this stage in their rebuild.

Looking For A Match In An Alex Verdugo Trade

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Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo saw his name floated around the trade deadline as a potential trade candidate, and though no trade ultimately came together, it’s worth noting that the club did field interest from clubs including both the Yankees and Astros regarding Verdugo at the deadline. With new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow now in place, the club’s focus figures to turn toward the offseason proper, and Verdugo once again makes sense as a trade candidate.

After all, the club has plenty of quality outfield options. Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in. Of that quartet, only Rafaela bats right-handed, so Verdugo’s presence does little to balance out the club’s heavily left-handed outfield mix. With just one year of team control remaining before Verdugo hits free agency, the 27-year-old sticks out as a prime trade candidate for a Boston club looking to pull itself back into contention after back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East.

That’s not to say Verdugo isn’t a quality player in his own right, of course. He’s been a roughly league average bat in each of the past three seasons, slashing .278/.334/.417 with a wRC+ of 102 since the start of the 2021 campaign. He paired that average offensive with above-average defense in right field this year, as he posted a solid +1 Outs Above Average alongside a more impressive +9 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. had a higher DRS in right field this year, per Fielding Bible.

The lackluster free agent market for position players further bolsters Verdugo’s potential trade candidacy. While the top of the market features Cody Bellinger, who is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, the rest of the market pales in comparison with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, and Jorge Soler among the group’s highlights. For teams in need of short-term outfield help, a one-year commitment to Verdugo (who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to make $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration) could make more sense than targeting one of those mid-tier free agents who could potentially be in search of a multi-year deal.

Teams that are unlikely to contend in 2023 are easy to eliminate from this exercise, as they wouldn’t particularly stand to benefit from a one-year deal with Verdugo. That would seem to eliminate the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Royals, and White Sox from the list of potential teams. Teams without a significant need for a corner outfield bat are also fairly easy to eliminate. The Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins all appear to be fairly set in the outfield corners. That still leaves 12 teams that could potentially have interest in Verdugo’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Astros: Houston was one of the teams linked to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why given the club’s desire to acquire a left-handed outfielder to complement Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, given the uncertain health situation of veteran Michael Brantley at the time. It stands to reason that the club’s interest in Verdugo would continue into this offseason, with Brantley set to hit free agency and leave an opening in the club’s left field mix. Verdugo would provide quality defense in left field and complement the right-handed bats of McCormick and Meyers alongside fellow lefty Kyle Tucker, who figures to play every day in right.
  • Braves: The Braves hold a $9MM option on the services of Eddie Rosario for the 2024 season, and while Rosario bounced back from a brutal 2022 campaign to post league average offensive numbers this year, Verdugo would be a more consistent player with stronger defense at roughly the same financial cost. The clear upgrade Verdugo provides for the Braves over their current left field mix makes Atlanta a strong potential landing spot for Verdugo, who would join Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the outfield while allowing Marcell Ozuna to remain as the club’s regular DH.
  • Dodgers: As unusual as it would be for the Dodgers to trade for Verdugo just four seasons after including him in the package that brought Mookie Betts from Boston to LA, Verdugo would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers, who are set to lose lefty corner bats David Peralta and Jason Heyward to free agency this offseason. Though a healthy season from Gavin Lux would allow Betts to patrol right field on a regular basis again in 2024 after spending much of 2023 on the infield dirt, the club still figures to be in need of an outfield regular alongside Betts and James Outman. Additionally, Verdugo’s left-handed bat would complement the right-handed bat of Chris Taylor, who figures to play a utility role in both the infield and outfield next season.
  • Mariners: After acquiring a one-year stopgap in right field last offseason when they landed Teoscar Hernandez in a trade with the Blue Jays, Seattle figures to once again be in need of corner outfield help this offseason. While Julio Rodriguez has locked down center field and Jarred Kelenic showed enough positive signs this year to warrant a regular role in left, the Mariners’ options beyond that duo are few and far between, with the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell among their best choices. Verdugo, much like Hernandez this season, would provide the club with a quality regular who can lock down a corner spot and allow the Mariners to focus on other areas this offseason.
  • Yankees: As rare as trades between the longtime rivals once were, they’ve become more common in recent years, including a deal that sent Greg Allen to New York earlier this year and a trade that moved Adam Ottavino to Boston back in 2021. While a Verdugo deal would be more significant than either of those two trades, the Yankees are in clear need of both left-handed bats to balance their lineup and could use two outfield bats to pair with Aaron Judge, assuming the club doesn’t want to count on Giancarlo Stanton as an everyday outfielder. Verdugo would fill both of those needs without adding another long-term contract to a payroll in New York that features five guaranteed contracts that extend through 2026 or longer.

Next Tier Down:

  • Guardians: The Guardians are well-established as a team in need of outfield help. Though Steven Kwan figures to remain entrenched in left field and Myles Straw is under contract in center long term, Ramon Laureano is a non-tender or trade candidate in right field and Straw could easily be pushed into a fourth outfielder role if Cleveland acquired an outfielder better suited to an everyday role. Verdugo would fit the club’s lineup nicely, taking over for Laureano in right field and offer a reliable bat to an outfield group that posted the second-worst wRC+ in the majors last year, 16% worse than league average. Unfortunately, the fit is less clean than it may appear, as Verdugo would immediately become the third highest-paid player on the club’s roster behind only Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. Given the Guardians typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, the club may prefer to look for lower-cost fliers in free agency to boost their outfield production rather than spend both financial and prospect capital to bring in Verdugo.
  • Marlins: Miami will see one of its best bats in Jorge Soler depart for free agency this offseason, leaving a clear hole in the lineup. While Soler was primarily used as a DH, the addition of Verdugo in the outfield would allow the club to platoon Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez, opening up the DH spot for an additional bat to improve a lackluster Marlins offense. That being said, given the presence of De La Cruz, Sanchez, and Avisail Garcia on the roster, Miami might be better served focusing on upgrading at shortstop, where the club currently projects to utilize Jon Berti as an everyday option.
  • Padres: The outfield in San Diego is currently well-stocked, with superstars Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the corners and Trent Grisham getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. With that being said, rumors have already begun to percolate this offseason that the Padres could look to move Soto in trade this offseason in hopes of cutting payroll. If the club does move on from Soto, that would create a hole in left field that Verdugo could slide into nicely. Verdugo projects to make almost $24MM less than Soto in 2024, and while his bat is not nearly as valuable as Soto’s he provides significantly more defensive value and is a clearly capable everyday player in left, which the Padres would lack without Soto on the team. Of course, if the team doesn’t move on from Soto this offseason, San Diego would no longer be a fit for Verdugo’s services.

Longer Shots:

  • Blue Jays: With Kevin Kiermaier set to depart for free agency this offseason, the Blue Jays will be in need of an outfield bat to pair with George Springer and Daulton Varsho, even as the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement provide reasonable depth options. While Verdugo could certainly fill that role, Toronto may not want to commit to Varsho as the club’s regular center fielder, seeing as the 26-year-old has never started more than 50 games at the position in a season during his career. What’s more, after a disappointing offensive season from the club, it’s reasonable to think the Blue Jays may prefer to add a bat with a stronger offensive profile than Verdugo, who’s 112 wRC+ in 106 games with the Dodgers during the 2019 season represents his best full season offensively.
  • Mets: After parting with Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Mets have a clear opening in left field where Verdugo would represent a clear improvement over the club’s incumbent options. That being said, the rumors have indicated that the club may look to take a bit of a step back in 2024 after a difficult 2023 campaign, and the club has plenty of young players who could feasibly take a step forward with regular playing time in 2024 including Bretty Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos. An opening in the outfield would allow the Mets to provide more playing time to those players, whether by directly playing them in left or by moving multi-positional veteran Jeff McNeil to left, thereby opening up time on the infield dirt.
  • Phillies: Whether the Phillies look to add a first baseman or outfielder this offseason could hinge on where Bryce Harper hopes to play in 2024, but in the event Harper spends next season at first base, Verdugo could provide the club with a quality defensive outfielder who would provide more certainty than relying on the likes of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache to play alongside Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos. That being said, Verdugo’s lefty bat makes for an imperfect fit in a Philadelphia lineup that already features Harper, Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott, further complicating Verdugo’s fit with the Phillies.
  • Pirates: While the Pirates lack an obvious starter in the outfield alongside Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the club figures to continue attempting to convert catcher Henry Davis to the outfield in 2024, likely filling the club’s outfield mix at least in the early part of the season. What’s more, the annual low budgets in Pittsburgh make a deal for Verdugo seem even more unlikely, as the club would presumably look to reunite with veteran outfielder and franchise legend Andrew McCutchen, who is set to hit free agency this offseason, if they were to dedicate resources to their outfield mix.

Looking For A Match In A Cody Bellinger Trade

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Cody Bellinger is probably the top rental hitter who’ll be traded in the next two weeks. The Cubs have gotten excellent production for their $17.5MM rebound flier on the former MVP.

Bellinger went into Wednesday night’s action carrying a .308/.365/.523 batting line over 266 plate appearances. That’s well shy of his career-best 2019 season but right in line with his next-best work as a Dodger. By measure of wRC+, it’s the third-strongest rate production of his career and not far off his .267/.351/.581 rookie showing that ranks as his second-best season.

A left knee contusion cost him around a month between May and June. Since being reinstated from the injured list, Bellinger is raking at a .366/.408/.570 clip. The Cubs eased him back in defensively at first base but have kicked him out to his customary center field spot this month.

Bellinger isn’t hitting for the kind of power he once did, but he has seemingly made a concerted effort to get more balls in play. After striking out around 27% of the time between 2021-22, he’s going down on strikes at just a 17.7% clip this season. Last winter’s Brandon Nimmo contract illustrated how much value the league places on the handful of above-average defensive center fielders who can hit. For the first time in three seasons, Bellinger again seems to fall into that category.

The Cubs should and very likely will trade him. They’re six games under .500. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option for next season, so he’s an impending free agent. The demand for his services this summer figures to outweigh the value of the draft pick they’d receive if he declines a qualifying offer and walks in free agency.

If Bellinger indeed changes uniforms in the next couple weeks, let’s identify some fits (teams listed alphabetically within tiers):

Top Suitors

Astros

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has already linked the Astros to Bellinger. Houston general manager Dana Brown is on record about his desire to add a left-handed bat to a very righty-centric lineup. Even with Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field and Chas McCormick playing very well in center, there’s enough uncertainty for Bellinger to be a fit.

Righty-swinging Corey Julks has gotten the bulk of the playing time in left field. He’s on a hot streak and has a decent .279/.326/.402 showing on the year, but he’s not the kind of impact bat who’d firmly rule Houston out on upgrades. It’s tough to know what to expect from Michael Brantley given his repeated shoulder setbacks. Acquiring Bellinger while pushing McCormick to left field and Julks to the bench would balance the lineup from a handedness perspective and add some overall depth to an offense that has been closer to average than expected.

Giants

San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Bellinger from their time in L.A. The Giants made a run at him in free agency last winter. They didn’t get him then, but the need is just as acute now. San Francisco has used rookie Luis Matos as its top center fielder over the past month. The 21-year-old is a very promising prospect but has started his MLB career with a middling .258/.327/.326 performance.

Bellinger would be a significant offensive upgrade and a defensive boost for an outfield that ranks 22nd in MLB at -8 Outs Above Average. Mike Yastrzemski could move to the corner opposite Michael Conforto, while Austin Slater stays on hand as a right-handed complement to the all lefty-hitting outfield. If Mitch Haniger returns before season’s end, he’d be a corner/designated hitter option.

Yankees

The Yankees are desperate for offensive help. Harrison Bader is one of the few productive regulars in their Aaron Judge-less lineup, but the corner outfield has been manned by depth types like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun (both now on the injured list), Billy McKinney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Even after Judge comes back, one of the corner outfield spots is open.

Acquiring Bellinger would push the Yankees past the $293MM fourth competitive balance tax line unless the Cubs paid down the entire deal (thereby increasing the prospect return). New York has been reluctant to exceed that rather symbolic marker — there are no additional non-monetary penalties for doing so — but ownership and the front office could feel increased pressure to add to a floundering roster that is now outside the playoff picture. It’s easy to see the appeal of adding Bellinger’s left-handed bat to the Yankee Stadium short porch and a lineup that skews heavily to the right side.

Next Tier Down

Phillies

Any interest on Philadelphia’s part would probably be contingent on Bryce Harper holding up at first base. If the Phils are convinced he’s an everyday option there, they could kick Kyle Schwarber to designated hitter and leave open a corner outfield spot for Bellinger. (The Phils could also pursue Bellinger as a first base option if Harper can’t play the field, though that’d leave Schwarber in a corner outfield spot.) It might not be the top priority — rotation depth and perhaps third base are bigger concerns — but it’d be viable if Harper can defend. Phils’ president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to push in for big names.

Rangers

Texas has gotten strong production out of Leody Taveras in center field. They’ve patched things together in left field and at designated hitter, though, relying mostly on Ezequiel Durán to carry the offensive load wherever he’s played. Travis Jankowski has been a solid fill-in as part of that rotation, but Bellinger carries far more offensive upside than the journeyman Jankowski does.

Red Sox

Center field looked like a problem for Boston not too long ago. Adam Duvall has struggled since returning from a fractured wrist. Enrique Hernández is not having a good season. The Sox have gotten their awaited Jarren Duran breakout, though. The 26-year-old former top prospect is hitting a career-best .313/.364/.508 over 269 trips to the plate. He’s not a good defensive center fielder, but with Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida locked into the corner outfield, there’s nowhere else for Duran to play. Adding another lefty-hitting outfielder to the mix is probably too much of a luxury buy for a club that could use pitching and middle infield help.

Longer Shots

Angels

Mickey Moniak has played well since assuming the center field role after Mike Trout’s hamate fracture. A short-term outfield of Taylor Ward, Moniak and Hunter Renfroe could theoretically be upgraded upon, but the Halos are a fringe contender at this point and Trout is expected back in August or September.

Brewers

Milwaukee hasn’t gotten a ton out of center field. Joey Wiemer has 12 homers and is playing good defense but has a .291 on-base percentage. Milwaukee could consider upgrades there or at first base, where Bellinger would be an upgrade on the currently injured Rowdy Tellez. They might have to pay a heavier prospect return to keep Bellinger within the division, though.

Guardians

The Guardians could certainly use an offensive jolt in the outfield. Myles Straw is one of the worst hitters among everyday players. He’s typically at least playable because of elite glovework and baserunning, but his public defensive metrics this season are average. This could work, although Cleveland is arguably too fringy of a contender to pursue a rental whom they’ll have little chance of re-signing. They’re only a game and a half back of Minnesota in the AL Central but they’re two games under .500.

Marlins

Miami is relying upon 27-year-old rookie Dane Myers as a stopgap center fielder. Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be back soon to reclaim center. The corner outfield tandem of Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz is fine but not overwhelming. The Fish could use a little more offense, but outside help seems likelier to come on the infield or behind the dish. Bellinger’s contract could also be problematic for a low-payroll Miami club that probably isn’t keen on paying a $5MM option buyout at the start of next offseason.

Twins

This one is contingent on Byron Buxton’s health. If Minnesota doesn’t feel Buxton will be able to play anything other than designated hitter all season, there’s a case for making a run at Bellinger and pushing Michael A. Taylor to the fourth outfield role. If they’re still holding out hope for Buxton’s late-season return to the outfield, this probably doesn’t work.

Dodgers

This would be very funny but it’s not happening.

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San Francisco strikes me as the best fit for Bellinger altogether, assuming they’re still right in the Wild Card mix on August 1. The Giants have a lot of good position players but are short on star talent. One can argue whether the current version of Bellinger is an All-Star caliber player or a bit below that. Still, the chance to improve the outfield defense while taking some pressure off Matos to immediately hit against big league pitching should be a goal for Zaidi and his front office.

Best Fits For A Whit Merrifield Trade

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For the past few seasons, there’s been loose deadline speculation around the possibility of the Royals dealing Whit Merrifield. To this point, Kansas City has resisted that possibility. A career-long member of an organization that is generally among the game’s most loyal, Merrifield was a late-bloomer who signed an affordable early-career extension. That allowed the Royals to keep him at little cost through his prime seasons, which included consecutive MLB-leading hit totals in 2018-19 and a pair of All-Star appearances.

As recently as last season, Merrifield participated in the Midsummer Classic. He went on to appear in all 162 games, led baseball with 42 doubles and swiped an AL-best 40 bases. The Royals hoped he’d be a top-of-the-order sparkplug for a more competitive team in 2022, but that hasn’t panned out. Not only has the team found itself 20 games below .500 at the All-Star Break, Merrrifield is having a career-worst season. He owns a .240/.292/.343 line through 373 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 percentage points below league average by measure of wRC+.

Merrifield is signed through the end of next season. The Royals restructured his deal during Spring Training, so he’s making $7MM this year (about $2.73MM of which will be paid out after the August 2 deadline) and $6.75MM next season. The deal also contains a $500K buyout on a 2024 mutual option. With the affordable control and Merrifield’s trade value at a low ebb, the Royals don’t have to force a trade over the next two weeks. Nevertheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last month the club was more amenable to dealing him than they’ve been in years past.

Even during a down year, Merrifield should draw attention from other clubs. He remains a high-contact bat and an excellent baserunner, having stolen 14 more bags while being caught just twice. He’s typically a solid defender at both second base and in the corner outfield, although public metrics are down a bit on his first-half performance in that regard. Merrifield has also looked more like himself of late, hitting .269/.322/.392 with 15 doubles and 11 steals in 65 games since the start of May. His April was abysmal, but he’s been productive for the past two and a half months and has a quality career body of work.

If the Royals were to seriously market Merrifield over the next two weeks, which teams stand out as the best fits? With a season and a half of remaining control, it’ll have to be a team that realistically feels it can compete by 2023. The Pirates, Reds, A’s, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Nationals can probably be ruled out on that alone. The Rockies and Rangers have their sights set on competing next year, but neither is likely to preemptively acquire a second baseman this summer. The Tigers are perhaps a bit more plausible given the tough season they’ve gotten from Jonathan Schoop, but they’re going to be more focused on dealing some players than acquiring a notable veteran from a division rival with an eye towards 2023.

Of the remaining two-thirds of the league’s teams, which seem likeliest to be in touch with Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Piccolo?

Best Fits

Mariners — Seattle has won 14 in a row to go into the All-Star Break owners of a 51-42 record. It’s still an uphill battle to catch the Astros in the AL West, but they’re firmly in the Wild Card mix and likely to look for ways to upgrade over the next two weeks. No position stands out more than second base, where Seattle has gotten a collective .212/.279/.299 line. Offseason acquisition Adam Frazier has underwhelmed, as has last year’s deadline pickup Abraham Toro. The M’s could move Ty France to second base, but he’s better suited for first base/designated hitter duty. Frazier’s headed towards free agency after this season anyhow, and Merrifield could be an affordable upgrade for both the remainder of this season and next.

White Sox — The White Sox have had a generally underwhelming season, but they’re coming out of the Break just three games back in the AL Central. The second base tandem of Leury García and Josh Harrison hasn’t panned out, although Harrison has been alright over the past month. Merrifield would still be a definitive upgrade there, and his relatively modest salary should be particularly appealing to a team already sporting a franchise-record payroll. Would the Royals be willing to deal Merrifield inside the division? They’d surely like to compete next season, so perhaps that’ll give them some hesitance, but he’d only be under contract for one season of plausible contention.

Dodgers — Heyman reported last week that the Dodgers have already been in touch with the Royals. Second base isn’t really a need for L.A., with former top prospect Gavin Lux enjoying his awaited breakout season. Lux has seen some time in left field of late while the Dodgers have been without Chris Taylor, though, and their offseason pickup of Hanser Alberto as a righty-hitting utilityman hasn’t worked. Landing Merrifield may lead to a bit of a position player surplus once Taylor returns from the injured list, but the Dodgers haven’t been deterred by having “too much talent” in recent years.

Giants — The Giants are in a similar boat as their archrivals. They have a handful of second base-caliber players, and righties Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada are playing well. Tommy La Stella is off to a rough start after opening the year on the injured list, and the Giants have already been tied to Brandon Drury.  That suggests they’re open to adding another righty-swinging versatile infielder. Merrifield doesn’t have Drury’s power, but his high-contact game may be a better fit for Oracle Park.

Brewers — The Brewers are expected to look for another bat this summer as they battle the Cardinals at the top of the NL Central. Kolten Wong has been a slightly below-average hitter this year, and his public defensive metrics have tumbled. That’s not too dissimilar from Merrifield, and perhaps Milwaukee will feel he’s not much (if any) of an upgrade over Wong. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently wrote that the Brew Crew could listen to offers on Wong even as they look for other ways to add to the offense.

Longer Shots

Orioles — The Orioles are within 3 1/2 games of a Wild Card spot despite their second basemen hitting only .196/.269/.363. Rougned Odor is just a stopgap, and the O’s are likely to look for a better second baseman this offseason. Actually reaching the playoffs this year is unlikely, but Merrifield is affordable and would be a good fit for a 2023 team that could more earnestly compete. With the 2022 club at least hanging around, there’s an argument for GM Mike Elias and his staff to strike a little early for a controllable player.

Angels — It’s a similar argument for the Angels, although their involvement in the bidding would be strictly about 2023. The Halos have gotten nothing from second base this year, one of the reasons they’re set to miss the playoffs again. Next season will be a turning point, with Shohei Ohtani slated to reach free agency after the year. They’re going to have to aggressively address the roster’s flaws over the next eight months. Nothing stops them from adding controllable players this summer while still dealing rentals like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen.

Rays — The Rays haven’t gotten much out of second base this year, but that’s largely because Brandon Lowe missed more than a month. With Lowe back, the keystone is no longer a concern, although Tampa Bay’s myriad outfield injuries could cause them to look at a versatile infield/outfield type.

Braves — Atlanta hasn’t gotten much from Orlando Arcia since Ozzie Albies broke his foot. They acquired Robinson Canó as a stopgap and anticipate Albies returning late next month. That probably reduces the urgency to add a second baseman, although they’re in a tight battle with the Mets and could work Merrifield into the corner outfield once Albies returns.

Phillies — Continuing the theme of “contenders whose second basemen got hurt,” the Phils have been without Jean Segura since May. He’s expected back this year, though, and the presence of top prospect Bryson Stott gives Philadelphia some cover until then. Bullpen or center field help seems likelier.

No Pressing Second Base Need

Each of the Yankees, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Padres and Red Sox have everyday second basemen locked into the lineup. Merrifield’s ability to play the corner outfield could make him an option for some of this group — the Yankees and Padres, in particular, could look into outfield additions — but they seem less likely to be motivated than teams searching for a second baseman. Much of Merrifield’s appeal lies in his defensive flexibility, and pigeon-holing him into the corner outfield reduces a good bit of his value. Contenders looking for an impactful corner bat to upgrade the middle of the order seem likely to find cleaner fits elsewhere.

Merrifield’s vaccination status also impacts some teams’ pursuits, most notably the Blue Jays. He was not permitted to travel to Canada for the Royals series in Toronto last week, and similar concerns reportedly diminished the Yankees’ interest in teammate Andrew Benintendi. Merrifield told reporters he’d be open to reconsidering his stance on getting vaccinated if dealt to a playoff contender that could have to travel across the border for meaningful games. He stopped short of firmly declaring he’d do so, however, and questions about his availability for those games could be of concern for some teams.

There’s no guarantee the Royals will actually follow through on a Merrifield trade. This is far from the first time his name has made the rounds on the rumor circuit, and Kansas City has yet to pull the trigger on a deal (or seemingly come close). If the front office takes a different approach this summer, teams like the Mariners, White Sox, Dodgers, Giants and Brewers feel like the most plausible suitors.

Looking For A Match In A Kevin Kiermaier Trade

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Back in March 2017, the Rays signed Kevin Kiermaier to a six-year, $53.5MM contract extension with the intention of locking in the Gold Glover as a fixture in the Tampa Bay outfield.  As that contract enters its final guaranteed year, the team’s plan came to fruition…sort of.  Kiermaier’s bat never took the expected leap forward, as he has hit .243/.307/.399 with 43 homers over 1817 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season, translating to below-average (93 wRC+, 94 OPS+) offensive production.  He has also played in only 486 of a possible 708 games in that five-season stretch due to a multitude of injuries.

And yet despite the missed time and the lack of consistent hitting, Kiermaier has still been worth 10.3 fWAR over the last five seasons, in large part because he remains arguably the sport’s best defensive outfielder.  As per Fangraphs’ value metrics, Kiermaier has been worth $82.5MM from 2017-21, more than twice as much as his real-world earnings over the same period.

So in that sense, the Kiermaier extension has worked out for the Rays, and his presence (or lack thereof, when on the injured list) certainly hasn’t kept the team from enjoying quite a bit of on-field success.  But for a team with such a limited payroll as Tampa Bay, any player making an eight-figure salary who is providing anything less than superstar-level production might not be a fit in the Rays’ financial framework.  Indeed, it can be argued that if Kiermaier had been healthier over the last five years, the Rays might well have traded him long ago, given how often Kiermaier’s name has been whispered in trade rumors.

Heading into 2022, however, teams interested in acquiring Kiermaier face a bit less of a risk since he is only guaranteed one season’s worth of money.  The center fielder is set to earn $14.5MM in 2022 — $12MM in salary, and the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023.  If Kiermaier can stay healthy and productive, then, a team could even exercise that option and keep him around for another year, adding a bit of a potential bonus to trading for the 31-year-old (who turns 32 in April).

“Less risk” doesn’t translate to no risk, of course, given Kiermaier’s checkered injury history.  Counting on him to be an everyday center fielder just doesn’t seem feasible both health-wise and perhaps based on Kiermaier’s numbers, such as his .663 career OPS against left-handed pitching.  If a team has a fairly inexpensive, right-handed hitting center field option already in place as a platoon partner, however, this club could take the plunge on Kiermaier and just hope that anything beyond two-thirds of a season would be gravy.

It is also quite possible that a Kiermaier trade would involve more than just Kiermaier.  The Rays could certainly package him together as part of a larger multi-player swap, or maybe just include a prospect along with Kiermaier in order to better entice another team to absorb that full $14.5MM salary.

From Tampa Bay’s perspective, Kiermaier’s center field role could be relatively easily filled by Manuel Margot, a strong defender in his own right.  The Rays’ starting outfield would then project as Margot, Randy Arozarena, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips and Jordan Luplow as bench depth, Brandon Lowe and Vidal Brujan both capable of playing in the outfield, and top prospect Josh Lowe knocking on the door.  This abundance of outfield options makes Kiermaier all the more expendable.

This season’s free agent market is very short on true center fielders, as the class consists of Starling Marte and then a large group of players who can play center in a pinch, but are better suited for regular work in the corners or at other positions.  With pickings this slim on the center field front, teams in need of help up in the middle are more apt to check in with the Rays about Kiermaier, particularly clubs who miss out on Marte, or weren’t keen on meeting his asking price in the first place.

Let’s first omit the teams who either aren’t planning to contend in 2022 (the Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), teams who may be more focused on payroll cuts than contending (Athletics, Reds), or the teams who are already have pretty solid center field options, or at least options that are comparable to what Kiermaier can provide — the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Guardians, Padres, Royals, and Tigers.  With these 13 clubs out of the way, let’s focus on how the remaining 16 teams break down as potential fits for a Kiermaier swap…

Teams Linked To Starling Marte

  • Phillies: The club parted ways with Odubel Herrera, and various in-house options (Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Mickey Moniak, Luke Williams) haven’t proven themselves capable of regular work at the big league level.  While the front office has implied that they have some room to spend, acquiring Kiermaier would be a relatively inexpensive way of addressing a major center field need, while allowing the Phillies to make a bigger splurge at another position.
  • Rangers: Texas is ready to spend this offseason, so Kiermaier’s salary wouldn’t be an issue for the Arlington club.  His shorter-term contract also gives the Rangers more flexibility with their outfield for any future moves next winter, when Texas might be making more of a full-on push to contend.  For what it’s worth, the Rays and Rangers have lined up on some notable trades in recent years.
  • Marlins: Kiermaier wouldn’t provide the hitting boost Miami is looking for, but there is obvious benefit to adding an elite defender to the outfield.  With Kiermaier providing extra coverage on the grass, the Marlins could be more open to adding a big hitter who is less-than-stellar with the glove (i.e. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber) for a corner outfield slot.
  • Mets: The Amazins have long been looking for a true everyday center fielder, and Kiermaier would provide a hugely-needed defensive boost in the outfield.  One obstacle, however, could be that the Mets are already loaded with left-handed hitting outfield options.
  • Giants: Kind of an imperfect match, as San Francisco might feel they already have its own version of Kiermaier in Steven Duggar.  Signing Marte would be a more natural upgrade for the Giants’ center field needs, but Duggar is younger than Kiermaier, can provide maybe 80% of the same excellent glovework, and might have some untapped hitting upside.
  • Astros: A little similar to the Giants’ situation, as the Astros might feel the combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Jose Siri can provide Kiermaier-esque production at a fraction of the price.  However, Meyers will miss at least some time at the start of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, and Astros GM James Click knows Kiermaier well from Click’s time working in Tampa Bay’s front office.
  • Yankees: Since Kiermaier and Aaron Hicks have equally spotty injury histories, New York might want a more stable option to replace or platoon with Hicks.  The Rays could also balk at dealing Kiermaier to a division rival.

Other Teams With Outfield Needs

  • Rockies: Kiermaier would look good in patrolling the vast Coors Field grass, and he would only help the run-prevention efforts of a Rockies team that was quietly one of the league’s better defensive clubs.  Garrett Hampson could act as a right-handed hitting platoon partner with Kiermaier in center, though some of the Rockies’ other outfielders (Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza) could be even more expendable in other trades.
  • Nationals: Lane Thomas impressed after being acquired by the Cardinals, but since Thomas is a right-handed hitter, he could be paired with Kiermaier in center, or he could see time in left field.  If Washington did use Thomas in a more everyday capacity in left, a Kiermaier/Victor Robles could also work for center.
  • Mariners: Seattle technically already has an outfield surplus that will become even deeper once star prospect Julio Rodriguez makes his big league debut.  What the M’s don’t really have, however, is a true center field option, since Jarred Kelenic looks more suited for corner outfield work and Kyle Lewis is returning from major knee surgery.  Kiermaier would bring veteran experience and a great glove to the outfield, and the Mariners and Rays have a long history of swinging trades with each other.
  • Cubs: While Chicago could have been slotted in the “not sure how hard they’ll be trying to contend” group, the Cubs did have trade talks with the Rays about Kiermaier this past summer, even if Kiermaier’s inclusion may have been more about salary offset than a direct interest.  Still, Kiermaier would certainly fit as a regular center fielder, with Rafael Ortega then moving into something of a fourth outfield role.  Ultimately, the Cubs hope to have top prospect Brennen Davis seeing regular time in center field before the season is over, so Kiermaier would be something of a short-term fix that the Cubs might not feel they need to make with Ortega already around.
  • Braves: The World Series champions will have Ronald Acuna Jr. back at some point to join an outfield mix that includes Adam Duvall, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters, and Guillermo Heredia.  There is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding Marcell Ozuna, who will likely face a suspension under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence policy.  Bringing Kiermaier to center field would help solidify the group, but as we saw last year, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is pretty adept at rebuilding an outfield on the fly, so he might want to see how his current options play out before deciding if upgrades are necessary.

More Creative Options

  • Dodgers: Chris Taylor could leave in free agency and Cody Bellinger might not be a part of the Dodgers’ future, given his struggles over the last two regular seasons.  Therefore, the center field position might be in need of some help, and Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman was the Rays’ GM when Kiermaier was initially drafted and developed in Tampa.
  • Red Sox: Speaking of former Rays executives now running other front offices, Chaim Bloom could see Kiermaier as a way of upgrading the shaky Red Sox defense.  Enrique Hernandez’s excellent center field glovework was a bright spot within that defensive corps, but with Kiermaier on board, Hernandez would be freed up for his intended super-utility role, with second base perhaps becoming his new regular position.  As noted earlier with the Yankees, trading Kiermaier within the division might not be Tampa’s preference.
  • White Sox: Another position change would be in the offing here, as while Luis Robert has looked pretty good as a defensive center fielder, he could slide nicely into a right field role if Kiermaier was acquired.  Robert could also return to center field when a lefty starter is on the mound, thus opening up playing time for Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel.
  • Twins: Acquiring Kiermaier might only be a possibility for Minnesota if Byron Buxton is traded….or, maybe the Twins and Rays could arrange a trade involving both Kiermaier and Buxton.  Such a deal might not really fit for either team in center field specifically, so it would need to be a pretty interesting multi-player swap to make this scenario anything more than a longshot.

Looking For A Match In A Matt Chapman Trade

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The tea leaves in Oakland aren’t painting a pretty picture of what is to come. A few weeks ago, they let manager Bob Melvin depart and join the Padres, seemingly just to save themselves a few million in salary. Then they declined a $4MM option on Jake Diekman, a fair enough price for a solid lefty reliever. Then there were the recent comments of general manager David Forst, who said that they are willing to listen to trade offers for any of their players. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Everything seems to be pointing towards a big sell-off in Oakland, with their arbitration-eligible players likely to be exchanged for younger and cheaper alternatives.

As the front office is doing all of that listening, they are likely to hear a lot about Matt Chapman. The third baseman, who turns 29 in April, can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. The arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz point to Chapman’s 2022 salary being in the $9.5MM range, with him then being due another raise for 2023, before being eligible for free agency. That’s not prohibitively expensive for a lot of teams, but for the Athletics, that’s a decent chunk of their budget. They’re currently projected for a 2022 payroll over $85MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number has only been above $90MM once, which was 2019, before the pandemic wiped out almost two thirds of a season and left teams playing in front of empty stadiums for the remainder. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) Hypothetically speaking, if they want to get that number down around $65MM, which was their opening day figure in 2018, a contract around $10MM would represent about 15% of the total outlay.

The timing of trading Chapman puts the Oakland brass in a difficult position, as he’s coming off a down year, relative to his own lofty standards. From his debut in June of 2017 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 385 games, hitting 74 home runs and slashing .257/.341/.500. His strikeout rate of 23.9% was a tad higher than league average, but so was his 10.1% walk rate. All that amounted to a wRC+ of 127 that, combined with his elite defense, added up to 15.6 fWAR. However, 2020 saw him fall from those incredible heights. His batting average dropped, his strikeout rate increased, his walk rate decreased and then his season was ended prematurely by hip surgery. In 2021, the good news was that he was healthy enough after the surgery to play 151 games and provide excellent defense, winning his third Gold Glove award. But the offense didn’t fully come back. His walk rate shot up to 12.9%, but his strikeout rate was a whopping 32.5%. He did hit 27 homers, but his overall line of .210/.314/.403 was well below his previous level, and amounted to a wRC+ of 101, just a hair above league average. It seems absurd to refer to 3.4 fWAR as a “down year”, but it is for Chapman, as that’s barely half of the 6.7 and 6.1 he was worth in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

For the Oakland front office, that puts them at a crossroads. One path is to hold onto him and hope for a return to his prior form and increase in his trade value. They could accomplish their salary-shedding goals by trading other players, such as Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, who are all projected to earn between $8.8MM and $12MM. Olson’s is coming off his best season, while Manaea and Bassitt are both free agents after 2022. However, holding Chapman comes with the risk that he could be injured again, or just stay his 2021 level and see his trade value reduced as he gets closer to free agency. The way to avoid that risk would be to just make a move now, even if his trade value isn’t at its peak.

If they do decide to part with Chapman, or any other player, they seem likely to target MLB-ready pieces. As noted by Steve Adams, from the piece linked in the first paragraph, the club’s various resets usually don’t last very long because this has been their method. The team has only had a losing record eight times in the 24 seasons of the Billy Beane era, and never for more than three in a row. With that in mind, let’s consider some potential trading partners.

Mariners: There’s a third base vacancy in Seattle for the first time a long time, as Kyle Seager is now a free agent. Abraham Toro is pencilled in there for now, but he’s also capable of moving to second base and bumping Dylan Moore into a bench/utility role, making Chapman an easy fit. The club is expected to be aggressive this offseason, as they look to build on a strong 2021 campaign. The Athletics are probably loath to send Chapman to a division rival, but they may also be interested in one of Seattle’s many young and cheap outfielders. The Mariners have Mitch Haniger in one spot, with the other two being open for Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, Julio Rodriguez and Zach DeLoach. The Athletics have just seen Mark Canha and Starling Marte head into free agency and are unlikely to outbid other teams in order to bring them back. Ramon Laureano will still be serving his suspension for the first 27 games of the 2022 season, leaving Oakland with outfield options such as Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown, Chad Pinder, Skye Bolt and Luis Barrera.

Marlins: Miami has a tremendous pitching surplus and is looking to use it to improve their offense, particularly at catcher and in the outfield. However, third base is a bit of a question mark for them as well. Brian Anderson is penciled in there now, but only got into 67 games in 2021 due to various injuries. Even if he is healthy, he’s capable of playing the outfield, meaning that adding Chapman could indirectly be the outfield addition they seek. With the expected addition of the DH in the NL, it would also be easy to have them both in the lineup. The Athletics would presumably be interested in Miami’s arms that have yet to reach arbitration, such as Zach Thompson, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer or maybe even getting Jesus Luzardo back.

Blue Jays: Much like the Marlins, the Jays also saw their third baseman miss a lot of time due to injury. Cavan Biggio was an awkward fit at third anyway, as he had primarily been a second baseman prior to this year and moved to accommodate the addition of Marcus Semien. If Chapman were at third, Biggio could slide back to the keystone, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. filling out the rest of the infield. Chapman was recently rumored to be a target of the Jays. The Jays have a catching surplus, but that may not interest Oakland with Sean Murphy already on hand. But perhaps they would be interested in Nate Pearson, who has ace potential but has struggled with injuries recently, or infield prospect Jordan Groshans, who spent all of 2021 at Double-A and should be knocking on the door of the majors next year.

Yankees: The Yankee infield is a bit of musical chairs at the moment, with the team seemingly giving up on Gleyber Torres as a shortstop. The infield right now, on paper, would be Torres at second with DJ LeMahieu at third, Gio Urshela at shortstop and Luke Voit at first. Voit doesn’t seem to have a job locked down, as the club has looked into Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson, but they could also acquire Chapman and move LeMahieu over to first. The Yankees are also looking into top free agent shortstops, which could make prospects like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza into trade chips that would interest the Athletics. Or perhaps Oakland would be interested in young and controllable arms, such as Michael King, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia or Luis Medina.

Mets: J.D. Davis only played 73 games in 2021 due to a hand injury that sent him to the IL multiple times. When healthy, he provided his usual mix of strong offense coupled with poor defense. He was reportedly available at the trade deadline and even admitted himself that he has a “gut feeling” he won’t be with the team next year. Although even if he were to stay and the club acquired Chapman, Davis would be a good fit at DH, should the NL implement it, given his profile. With Chapman in the fold, it could allow the Mets to part with third base prospects such as Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, both of whom are close to reaching the majors.

Phillies: A year ago, it seemed like the third base job in Philadelphia was locked down for years to come, as Alec Bohm had a breakout rookie campaign in 2020. He hit a tremendous .338/.400/.481 for a wRC+ of 138. However, seemingly everything went wrong in 2021, as he dropped to .247/.305/.342 for a wRC+ of 75 and even got optioned to the minors for over a month. With the Athletics taking a step back, they could give Bohm some playing time and see if he can recapture that prior form. However, the Phillies have bigger priorities in the outfield and bullpen, which may mean that they hang on to him.

Rockies: In the first season of the post-Arenado era, Ryan McMahon got most of the playing time at the hot corner, who paired average-ish offense with excellent defense. But he’s also capable of playing second base, with Brendan Rodgers then moving to shortstop to replace Trevor Story, who is now a free agent. Chapman’s power bat moving to the high-altitude environment of Coors Field is tantalizing to imagine, and could potentially make infield prospects like Colton Welker and Elehuris Montero expendable.

Looking For The Next Marlins Catcher

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In a recent post, I looked at some potential landing spots for Willson Contreras, should the Cubs decide to move him. A few commenters expressed surprise that the Marlins weren’t on the list. While it’s true that Miami could use a new backstop, and has been rumored to have interest in Contreras in the past, my logic for leaving them off the list was that I expect they will target a catcher with more control than Contreras, who would be a pure rental. While it’s possible they could trade for Contreras and then sign him to an extension, that wouldn’t be cheap, especially for a club that has been stripping payroll down in recent years. It seems more likely that they will target a catcher that matches their current core.

With Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo and others, the club has a solid core of players that are between the ages of 23 and 27, and all come with at least three years of control. They also have five prospects on both the MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs Top 100, as well as six on Baseball America’s list. The club has everything in place to open a competitive window soon, but after going 67-95 in 2021, it’s probably too soon to be going after a win-now piece like Contreras.

In the first few months of 2021, most of Miami’s playing time behind the plate went to Jorge Alfaro, Sandy Leon and Chad Wallach. With none of those three locking down the job, the club acquired a couple of catchers at the trade deadline, trading Adam Duvall to Atlanta for Alex Jackson as well as sending John Curtiss to Milwaukee for Payton Henry. Down the stretch, Jackson was given 30 starts as a catcher and Henry got five, but neither did enough to secure the position. Nick Fortes played better than both of them, but in a small sample of just 14 games that doesn’t align with his minor league track record. The position still seems to be wide open with the club looking for outside upgrades, as manager Don Mattingly admitted when discussing the situation a few weeks ago. But since there’s a weak free agent class and the Marlins have about a dozen viable starting pitchers, there should be plenty of avenues for trade discussions this winter. Let’s dig into some options.

Blue Jays: The Canadian birds are loaded with young, cheap, controllable catchers, with varying degrees of appeal. Danny Jansen is entering his age-27 season, which will be his first of three arbitration years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz recently projected his salary will be a modest $1.5MM. He dealt with various injuries in 2021 and only got into 70 games, but hit 11 home runs in that time and slashed .223/299/.473, producing a wRC of 105 and 1.4 fWAR. Reese McGuire got a lot of playing time when Jansen was hurt, getting into 78 games and hitting .253/.310/.343, for a wRC+ of 78 and 1.3 fWAR. He’ll turn 27 in March, has just over two years of service time and is therefore one season away from arbitration and four away from free agency. Alejandro Kirk also spent some time on the IL and only got into 60 games. He hit .242/.328/.436 for a wRC+ of 106 and 0.7 fWAR. He’ll turn 23 in November and has five years of team control remaining. On top of those three MLB-ready options, the club also has one of the best catching prospects in the majors in Gabriel Moreno. Baseball America lists him as the 8th overall prospect and the second-highest catcher, behind only Adley Rutschman. MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs both have him as the 32nd overall prospect. Though he hasn’t reached the big leagues yet, he finished 2021 at Triple-A and will be appearing in this year’s Arizona Fall League. With the Blue Jays losing Robbie Ray and Steven Matz to free agency, they could perhaps part with one of these catchers in exchange for one of the dozen or so starting pitchers that the Marlins have to offer.

Atlanta: Travis d’Arnaud recently signed an extension, agreeing to stay in Atlanta through at least 2023, with a club option for 2024. With d’Arnaud seemingly lined up to be the go-to catcher for the next few years, that could put a squeeze on some of the other options in the organization. William Contreras is still a few months away from his 24th birthday but has gotten into 56 big-league games already. In that time, he’s hit .225/.308/.405, for a wRC+ of 89. He has six years of team control remaining. Waiver claim Chadwick Tromp is on hand as a depth option. And then there’s Shea Langeliers, the club’s best catching prospect. Baseball America ranks him the 68th best overall prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline has him 69th, and FanGraphs ranks him 52nd. He played most of this season at Double-A and even got into five Triple-A games. Despite already trading Alex Jackson to Miami a few months ago, they might be able to do line up on another deal.

Tigers: Eric Haase had a breakout campaign in 2021, his age-28 season. In 98 games, he bopped 22 homers and produced an overall line of .231/.286/.429, wRC+ of 100 and 1.0 fWAR. He has five years of team control remaining. Jake Rogers was enjoying a nice breakout before an injury shut him down, eventually leading to Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out for at least part of the 2022 campaign. In 38 games in 2021 before the injury, he hit .239/.306/.496, wRC+ of 115 and 1.0 fWAR. He also has five years of team control remaining. The club also has Dustin Garneau and Grayson Greiner on hand, who both made decent contributions in their limited action in 2021. There’s also the Dillon Dingler factor, as the prospect finished the season at Double-A. FanGraphs lists him as the 73rd-best prospect in baseball. Given all these competent options, they could subtract someone and still feel good about their situation behind the plate. Perhaps Miami would be willing to take on Rogers and give Alex Jackson a chance to prove himself until Rogers is healthy. Although they’ve been in rebuild mode for a few years, it seems like the Tigers will attempt to return to contention in 2022. They have lots of intriguing young arms but lost Wily Peralta to free agency and may not get anything from Spencer Turnbull or Matthew Boyd next year because of injuries. One of those Miami arms would make a great fit in Detroit.

Padres: The Friars have a couple of adequate catchers in the majors, Victor Caratini and Austin Nola. Caratini had a down year in 2021 but still has passable numbers of the past few campaigns. From 2019 to 2021, his overall line is .244/.327/.368, wRC+ of 86. 2022 will be his second of three arbitration years, with MLBTR projecting a salary of $2.1MM for the 28-year-old. Nola, on the other hand, is still a year away from arbitration and has four years of team control remaining. In 183 games over the past three seasons, his slash line is .271/.345/.435, for a wRC+ of 114 and 4.2 fWAR. And the picture gets crowded when we consider Luis Campusano. He’s ranked as the 32nd prospect in baseball by Baseball America, 37th by MLB Pipeline and 15th by FanGraphs. The 23-year-old has already had a cup of coffee at the majors, getting into 12 games for San Diego. Since they are running franchise-record payrolls of late, trading a catcher could be a way to upgrade their roster without breaking the bank.

Twins: Even with a terrible showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, Mitch Garver is still on a solid four-year run for the Twins. From 2018-2021, his line is .259/.344/.501, wRC+ of 125 and 6.3 fWAR. He has two seasons of team control remaining and is projected by MLBTR to earn $3.1MM in arbitration next year. Ryan Jeffers had a solid debut in 2020, but took a bit of a step backward in 2021. However, he’s still only 24 years old and comes with five years of control. His overall slash line between 2020 and 2021 is .221/.285/.407, producing a wRC+ of 88 and 1.1 fWAR in 111 games. They also have Ben Rortvedt on hand, who made his debut in 2021. He didn’t show much with the bat, but it was a small sample size of 39 games, and he has much better offensive numbers in the minors. He just turned 24 and has six years of team control remaining. He’s also left-handed, with Garver and Jeffers both being righties. 2021 was an awful campaign for the Twins but all indicators suggest they’re hoping to immediately return to competing in 2022. The rotation lost Jose Berrios to trade, Michael Pineda to free agency and Kenta Maeda to injury, leaving plenty of room for a new acquisition.

Pirates: Pittsburgh hopes that its catcher of the future is Henry Davis, which is why they selected him first overall in the 2021 MLB draft. Baseball America ranks him as the 44th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 22nd and FanGraphs 27th. He’s likely still a few years away from reaching the big leagues, but the Pirates aren’t expected to compete in the interim. They could easily subtract someone like Jacob Stallings and sign a cheap veteran to take his place. Stallings turns 32 in December and has three years of club control remaining. As a Super Two player, he’s already gone through arbitration once, making $1.3MM in 2021. MLBTR projects he will double that to $2.6MM for 2022. He generally hits just below league average but adds value with his excellent defense. For instance, his 2021 slash line was .246/.335/.369, for a wRC+ of 95. But because of his defensive contributions, he was worth 2.6 fWAR on the year, which was double his previous best. One of the worst teams in baseball this season, the Pirates will be looking to stockpile as much young talent as they can in order to return to contention.

White Sox: Yasmani Grandal is entrenched as the primary catcher for the Pale Hose as he still has two years left on his contract. Yermin Mercedes had a tantalizing showing with the bat at the start of the season, but got squeezed out of playing time and eventually optioned down to the minors. Even when Grandal was on the injured list, the playing time went primarily to Seby Zavala and Zack Collins. In 68 games at the big-league level this year, Mercedes hit .271/.328/.404, for a wRC+ of 102. In 59 Triple-A games, the production was similar, as he slashed .275/.318/.464, wRC+ of 106. There was some scuttlebutt that Mercedes was unhappy with the organization, and he even briefly retired in July, only to quickly return. Perhaps a change of scenery would be beneficial to all parties. Mercedes will turn 29 in February but has six years of team control remaining. The White Sox have a solid rotation but will be losing Carlos Rodon to free agency.

Diamondbacks: Similar to the Pirates, the Diamondbacks are coming off a terrible year and probably considering any veteran-for-prospect arrangement they can find. Carson Kelly is coming off his first of four arbitration seasons as a Super Two player, just like the aforementioned Jacob Stallings. However, Kelly is much younger, as he just turned 27 in July. He made $1.7MM in 2021 and is projected by MLBTR to make $3MM in 2022, with two years of team control after that. Over his three seasons in the desert, he’s hit .239/.333/.435, for a wRC+ of 99 and 3.8 fWAR.

Mariners: The Mariners have a bit of a crowd behind the plate. Tom Murphy is the most experienced of the bunch, as he has just over four years’ service time. Luis Torrens had a nice season in 2021, his age-25 campaign. He hit 15 homers and slashed .243/.299/.431 for a wRC+ of 101. He has four years of team control remaining. Cal Raleigh made his MLB debut in 2021. Although he didn’t hit much, he’s only 24 years old and has a better offensive track record in the minors. He’ll turn 25 in November and has six years of team control remaining. They also have Jose Godoy on hand as a depth option. The rotation will be without Tyler Anderson next year, as he heads to free agency. There’s also the giant unanswered question of Yusei Kikuchi, who had a great first half but slumped bad enough in the second half to lose his rotation spot. With famously trade-happy president like Jerry Dipoto, perhaps a catching-for-pitching swap could be discussed here.

Giants: Not so long ago, it didn’t seem there was any chance of the Giants picking up their $22MM club option on Buster Posey for 2022. But then 2021 happened. After sitting out the 2020 season, Posey showed didn’t show any rust. In fact, it seemed to rejuvenate him. His slash line on the season was .304/.390/.499, producing a wRC+ of 140, his highest such mark since 2014. Now it seems almost impossible for the club to turn that option down. That means that prospect Joey Bart is blocked for another year. He’s already seen his name floated in trade rumors before, and there was even a false report that he was part of the Kris Bryant trade. But he’s still in the Giants organization for now. Baseball America ranks him the 39th best prospect in baseball, MLB Pipeline 16th and FanGraphs 55th. He’s already gotten a cup of coffee at the majors and comes with six years of club control. He turns 25 years old in December.

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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Over the past year, the Cubs have sent a lot of good players out the door on their way to slashing payroll and starting a new rebuild. Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel and more. But one of the key pieces of their recent competitive window remains. Despite occasional rumors that he was being shopped around, Willson Contreras is still a Cub. The backstop will be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter, a season in which the Cubs are unlikely to be competitive, given their recent sell-off. That means they would be wise to commit to one of two paths, either extending him or trading him.

When choosing between the two paths, however, something that might tip the scales is the weak free agent crop of catchers this offseason. With such a low supply of catchers available, teams might have to turn to trades if they want to upgrade behind the plate. That could make Contreras a hot commodity, given his solid track record. Across the past six seasons, Contreras has a line of .259/349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114, producing 12 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only five catchers in baseball produced more fWAR over that span. (Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey Mike Zunino and Gary Sanchez.) Contreras has also been remarkably consistent in that time, with his wRC+ falling between 101 and 126 each year, and his fWAR always between 0.7 and 2.7.

Financially speaking, he won’t be prohibitively expensive. His 2021 salary was $6.65MM. He will get a raise on that through arbitration, probably to the $10MM range, approximately half of what Grandal, Realmuto and Posey are making per year on their current contracts.

As to who would be interested in acquiring him, it would have to be a team with a need behind the plate, of course. But given that he only has one year of control, it would also have to be a win-now club. Let’s look at which teams could fit the bill.

Cleveland: Roberto Perez can be controlled for 2022 with a club option valued at $7MM. However, he’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season. Since then, he’s only played 76 games due to various injuries and hit .155/.253/.277 for a wRC+ of 49. Austin Hedges got 85 starts at catcher this year and hit just .178/.220/.308 for a wRC+ of 40. There’s certainly room for improvement on that kind of production. The club also has maximum payroll flexibility. Once they exercise their $11MM club option on Jose Ramirez, that will bring their total 2022 payroll commitments up to the range of… $11MM. Bringing in Contreras along with a few free agents, and then having some better health in the rotation, 2022 could see the club easily surpass their 80-82 record from this year.

Mariners: After surprising the baseball world with a 90-win campaign, the Mariners have seemingly moved beyond rebuilding and into competing. In 2021, they gave playing time to Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh, none of whom ran away with the job. Murphy had a tremendous season in the shortened 2019 but couldn’t replicate it in 2021. He hit .202/.304/.350 this year, for a wRC+ of 87 and 1.0 fWAR. Torrens was better with the bat but was mostly being used as a designated hitter down the stretch. Raleigh has decent defensive numbers but hit a paltry .180/.223/.309 for a wRC+ of 47. Mariners’ president Jerry Dipoto recently spoke about adding more offense for 2022 and has a trade-happy reputation. Going after Contreras could be one way to add some more thump to Seattle’s lineup.

Red Sox: In 2021, Boston split the catching duties between Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, both of whom were okay but not great. Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352, wRC+ of 77. Plawecki’s line was .287/.308/.389, wRC+ of 102. They each produced 0.5 fWAR. Both of them have one year of team control left, as Plawecki is going into his final arbitration year whereas the Red Sox have a $7MM club option on Vazquez. Contreras would be an upgrade for the 2022 season and could help bridge the gap to younger catchers like Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez.

Rockies: The Rockies gave most of their 2021 catching starts to Elias Diaz, who had a sudden power breakout. Coming into this year, he had 15 home runs in 273 career games. In 2021, he had 18 dingers in 106 games. Despite this power surge, he still only put up a wRC+ of 92, partially because of playing his home games at Coors. (wRC+ controls for ballpark factors.) Dom Nunez was the primary backup to Diaz, and he put up a line of .189/.293/.399, which adds up to a wRC+ of just 69. Contreras could easily provide a boost to this tandem, if the club thinks it’s in win-now mode, which they apparently do.

Yankees: It’s become an annual tradition for people to debate whether or not the Yankees will stick with Gary Sanchez. His tremendous early years have seemed too tantalizing to give up on, even as he’s struggled more recently. In 2021, he was competent enough, hitting .204/.307/.423, producing a wRC+ of 99 and 1.5 fWAR. Like Contreras, he is going into his final arbitration season, and will be due a raise on a salary of $6.35MM. Could the Yankees be willing to swap him out for a catcher with a similar payout but more consistent production?

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