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Looking For A Match In A Trade

Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade

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The Reds’ short- and long-term plans for their rotation hit a snag in 2016 when promising starter Raisel Iglesias shifted to the bullpen after encountering shoulder problems. Now, with Iglesias having morphed into one of the game’s most valuable late-game assets over the past two seasons, it’s clear that something positive came from the right-hander’s role change.

Since he became a member of Cincinnati’s relief corps, Iglesias has combined for 126 innings of 2.29 ERA pitching, with 10.43 K/9 against 3.29 BB/9. Any team would sign up for that type of production, including the Reds themselves, who seem inclined to retain Iglesias entering his age-28 season. But with the Reds amid a rebuild and not looking like near-term contenders, there’s an argument to be made that they should sell Iglesias this winter.

Raisel Iglesias

Iglesias has already drawn reported interest from the Twins, who will need to bolster their thin bullpen if they’re going to build on the unexpected success they experienced in 2017. Iglesias would be a fit for a Minnesota club seeking more strikeouts from its pitching staff, but with a farm system that lacks impact talent (per Baseball America), he may be out of its reach.

The Twins are one of a multitude of teams that could inquire about Iglesias (or maybe already have). Indeed, general manager Dick Williams estimated earlier this month that two-thirds of the league would have interest in Iglesias without the Reds even having to shop his services. That seems like a reasonable guess on Williams’ part, given both Iglesias’ superb pitching and his affordability.

Thanks to the seven-year, $27MM contract he signed as a Cuban defector in 2014, Iglesias is under control through the 2020-21 offseason. He’s guaranteed a relatively meager $14.5MM in salaries over the next three years ($4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in both ’19 and ’20), though he could opt into arbitration in each of those offseasons if he believes he’d rake in more money that way. That’s unlikely to happen in 2018, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.8MM arbitration award for Iglesias should he choose that route. Regardless, Iglesias’ contract only adds to his appeal, and it’s a big part of the reason why he’d command a significant haul in a trade.

Teams with good systems that are either in contention or close to it stand out as the best fits for Iglesias in a hypothetical trade, which would seem to rule out rebuilding clubs such as the Tigers, Padres, Marlins, Athletics and White Sox. None of the Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Mariners, Angels, Rangers, Indians, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Diamondbacks or Giants look like ideal fits, either, for various reasons.

Toronto and Tampa Bay have two of the top 10 farms in the league, according to BA, though neither team appears to be in position to strip itself of major young talent to acquire a reliever. The Yankees and Indians seem to possess more than enough quality relievers, meanwhile, and the rest of the aforementioned clubs probably don’t have the youth on hand to put together a suitable package for Iglesias. That leaves us with seven of the Reds’ National League counterparts — the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies and Dodgers — and the World Series champion Astros.

An earnest Iglesias pursuit could be a tad aggressive for either Atlanta or Philadelphia, a pair of clubs that have resided at the bottom of the standings in recent years. Both teams seem to be pushing toward contention, however, and there’s no shortage of capable prospects on hand in either case (even though the Braves just lost a dozen youngsters thanks to ex-GM John Coppolella’s transgressions).

The Nationals figure to rule the NL East for the third straight year in 2018, but they’re not loaded in the bullpen after Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Next season might be the last in D.C. for Bryce Harper, which could lead to some bold, go-for-broke moves from general manager Mike Rizzo this winter. Landing Iglesias would qualify, though it would mean further thinning out a top-heavy system.

The Cardinals look poised to serve as one of the league’s most active teams in the next few months, and the need for relief help is apparent with Trevor Rosenthal out of the organization and Seung-hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio having hit free agency. The division-rival Brewers had the world-class game-ending tandem of Corey Knebel and Josh Hader in 2017, but the latter could shift to the rotation in the near future. Even if he doesn’t, there’s room for another inexpensive, top-notch reliever in Milwaukee, a low-payroll club with the prospects to assemble an Iglesias package.

As for the two NL West clubs, the Rockies and Dodgers, it’s clear there’s a greater need for Iglesias in Colorado. The Rockies surprisingly earned a playoff berth in 2017, in part because of relievers Greg Holland, Jake McGee and Pat Neshek. All three of those hurlers are now free agents, however, so Colorado is going to have to focus on its bullpen this offseason. Enter Iglesias, then? Notably, he’s rather reliant on a slider, a pitch the Rockies’ relievers threw more than 28 other bullpens last season and one that’s capable of surviving in the high altitude at Coors Field.

The pennant-winning Dodgers have arguably the game’s preeminent closer in Kenley Jansen, but their second-best reliever from last season, Brandon Morrow, is currently on the open market. That leaves room for an Iglesias pickup if they’re willing to part with the prospects, as he’s superior to late-inning holdovers such as Pedro Baez, Josh Fields, Luis Avilan and ex-Reds teammate Tony Cingrani.

The Astros managed to knock off the Dodgers in a Fall Classic that lived up its name, though the slump Houston’s bullpen endured nearly foiled its plans. Still, Iglesias would be more of a luxury than a must-have for the Astros, who look to be in fine shape with Ken Giles (playoff struggles notwithstanding), Chris Devenski, Will Harris and Joe Musgrove in the fold. But GM Jeff Luhnow tried to meaningfully improve the Astros’ bullpen over the summer, when he nearly swung a deal for the Orioles’ Zach Britton, and that was before Giles’ disastrous postseason run. With that in mind, perhaps Luhnow will dip into his high-end farm system this offseason to reel in a premier reliever like Iglesias, who would join a bullpen that led the majors in slider usage in 2017.

While the Reds may choose to go forward with Iglesias, it’s inarguable that they have an eminently valuable trade chip on their hands. As someone who saved 28 of 30 opportunities and recorded more than three outs in 17 of 63 appearances last season, Iglesias is the type of flexible late-game weapon who’d be worth more to a playoff-caliber team than a non-contender. With Cincinnati falling into the latter category, Iglesias just might himself in another uniform in 2018.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade

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Earlier this week, Mark Polishuk examined the potential trade market for Jose Abreu. Another White Sox player who’s likely to receive calls this offseason is right fielder Avisail Garcia, who is coming off a 4.2 fWAR season and is signed through 2019.

Prior to 2017, Fangraphs rated Garcia below replacement level for his career. But last offseason, the Venezuelan native shed some weight and got off to a hot start in April. He continued to crush the ball throughout the first half en route to his first All-Star selection. Although Garcia had a rough July, he finished the season strong, resulting in a .330/.380/.506 batting line. That performance was good for a 137 wRC+, which tied Justin Upton for the 22nd-best mark in all of baseball.

During a season’s end press conference, White Sox GM Rick Hahn admitted that the team is unlikely to win any time soon. “Even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us,” Hahn told reporters. This would make Garcia a prime candidate to move for young talent, especially coming off a career year.

The process of putting an approximate trade value on Garcia, however, is incredibly complicated. Unlike teammate Abreu, the outfielder doesn’t have a long track record of success, and it’s not certain he’ll be able to muster something resembling his 2017 production in future years.

One could point to a change in batted ball profile as an indicator that this past year’s success is sustainable. Garcia improved his hard contact and medium contact rates by small margins over his 2016 figures, in addition to increasing his fly ball rate by four percentage points. The most dramatic change was probably his pull rate; Garcia pulled the ball 25% more often this past season than he did the year before. All told, he ranked 53rd in baseball in hard contact rate (35.3%), and 36th in average exit velocity (90.1 MPH).

Of course, those improvements don’t entirely justify an 83-point jump in batting average on balls in play. His .392 BABIP led all of baseball by a large margin, topping second-place Charlie Blackmon’s figure by a 21-point margin. That number is likely to regress significantly, which makes it tough to buy Garcia a legitimate .300 hitter.

That being said, Garcia’s contract will certainly have some surplus value in the eyes of rival teams. He may not have the reputation necessary to bring back a truly elite minor-leaguer, but it’s not hard to imagine some team forking over a top-100 or even top-50 prospect in hopes that Garcia can be a 3-win player for them for each of the next two seasons. When looking at potential suitors, it’s probably best to examine those teams for whom he would provide an obvious upgrade even if he were to regress a bit.

The Blue Jays have the resources to swing a deal and a need in the outfield, but might prefer to find another left-handed option. It also might not make much sense to trade for Garcia when Anthony Alford will probably debut at some point in 2017.

The Rays could use a righty-hitting outfielder, and they have a number of prospects in a more appropriate range to headline a deal for Garcia. Making such a trade would be a more realistic alternative to spending money on a right-handed outfielder in free agency, as Tampa Bay obviously isn’t known for their ability to spend.

Although their outfield is fairly crowded already, the Indians saw right-handed-hitting Austin Jackson reach free agency this offseason. With questions surrounding the health of Brandon Guyer, the Tribe would probably be well-served to add another righty option to their outfield group. They won’t be inclined to give up Francisco Mejia or Triston McKenzie, but they do have a number of intriguing upside youngsters; they might be able to lure Garcia away from their division rivals with some combination of those players.

The Rockies seem like a really good match on paper; they’re in need of an outfielder who bats from the right side, and have prospects they could afford to give up if they believed in the new version of Garcia.

The Diamondbacks seem like the best match to me. They have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole to fill in the outfield, and they’re ready to push for contention again in 2018. With Pavin Smith and Jon Duplantier at least a full year away from contributing, Arizona could opt to trade one of them as a cheaper alternative to the nine-figure contract Martinez would require in order to return. Because he’s such a defensive liability, Martinez actually finished 2017 with a lower fWAR than Garcia, who played roughly average defense for Chicago. That’s obviously not to say that Garcia should be the more coveted player, but he’s definitely got his pros as an alternative.

Other options that make some level of sense include the Giants and Rangers. But the conundrum here is that it’s hard to predict exactly how teams will value Garcia, including the White Sox themselves. It’s not often that career sub-replacement outfielders suddenly become All-Stars, so it will be interesting to track rumors surrounding Avi this offseason and see what develops.

Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade

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With the White Sox continuing their rebuild, it only makes sense that the team is open to the idea of trading slugger Jose Abreu.  The first baseman is projected by MLBTR to earn a hefty $17.9MM in arbitration this winter, and he’ll have another big price tag due next winter when he makes his third and final trip through the arb process before hitting free agency.

Even at the cost of roughly $37MM over the next two seasons, however, it can certainly be argued that Abreu is well worth the money.  He batted .304/.354/.552 with 33 homers over 675 plate appearances last season, with a 138 wRC+ that ranked 19th among all qualified hitters.  While Abreu has done nothing but mash since coming to MLB in 2014, his career low strikeout and swinging-strike totals from last year and his career-best 40.5% hard-hit ball rate indicate that he may be becoming even more polished at the plate as he approaches his age-31 season.  Between his big bat, his passable defensive numbers at first base and his well-respected clubhouse presence, Abreu would be an upgrade to any lineup in baseball.

Jose Abreu | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY SportsWith this resume in mind, Abreu represents an interesting alternative within a very crowded first base market on both the free agent and trade front this winter.  A team might prefer Abreu’s two years of control to splurging on a longer-term and more expensive commitment to Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana, while Abreu is a clear step up production-wise from second-tier first base free agents like Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso.  Abreu also comes at just a fraction of the cost of Giancarlo Stanton for suitors that aren’t willing to meet the Marlins’ high (and maybe unrealistic) asking price of both prospects and salary absorption.

What the crowded market does mean, however, is that it may be some weeks or even months before Abreu’s fate is determined.  Teams may not look for second-choice players until Stanton or Shohei Ohtani (who could be at least a part-time DH for an AL team) have their new teams established.  White Sox GM Rick Hahn has shown that he is only willing to move his top assets (like Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, or Jose Quintana) for the highest of trade returns, and in Quintana’s case, Hahn was willing to wait until the season had begun to pull the trigger on a deal.  It could be that the Sox hang onto Abreu until midseason when the first base market is less loaded.

Chicago will also be shopping Avisail Garcia this winter, who is four years younger and considerably less expensive than Abreu, but has the same amount of team control and has a much less-established track record of big league success.  It isn’t out of the question that the Sox look to move both players in one blockbuster, though for now, let’s just focus on potential suitors for Abreu himself…

Angels: A left-handed bat would be a better fit for the righty-heavy Angels lineup, though the team would hardly complain about adding a hitter of Abreu’s caliber.  Both corner infield spots are areas of need for the Halos, and Abreu’s addition would shift Luis Valbuena over to third base and turn C.J. Cron into a trade or even a non-tender candidate.  It isn’t clear, however, if the Angels’ thin farm system has enough interesting names to get Chicago’s attention.

Astros: Adding Abreu to this already-stacked lineup would just about be unfair, but it looks like Evan Gattis is Houston’s answer for the DH spot next season now that Carlos Beltran has retired.  The World Series champions probably won’t be in the mix for Abreu, though it’s worth noting that the White Sox are quite familiar with the Astros’ farm system, after acquiring Tyler Clippard last summer and extensively discussing Quintana before the southpaw was eventually dealt to the Cubs.  Houston was also one of the teams interested in Abreu when he first came from Cuba to the big leagues.

Brewers: A bit of an outside-the-box contender for Abreu since Eric Thames is already at first base, plus Thames is owed only $12MM through 2019 (which includes a $1MM buyout of a $7.5MM club option for 2020).  Thames is actually a couple of months older than Abreu, however, and isn’t as nearly as proven a hitter; even in Thames’ breakout 2017 campaign, he was very hot-and-cold in terms of production thanks to a big strikeout rate.  Milwaukee is reportedly open to spending on pitching this winter, so you wonder if a team that is prepared to make a big move wouldn’t also be open to an offensive upgrade.  Thames could be shipped to the White Sox as part of the Abreu trade package, giving the Sox another trade chip for the deadline.

Cardinals: Known to be looking for a difference-making bat this winter, the Cards have been exploring numerous free agent and trade options, most notably being cited as one of Stanton’s top suitors.  A trade indeed seems like the best course of action given the Cards’ surplus of infielders and (particularly) outfielders on the roster, so St. Louis seems like a logical partner for the White Sox.  The Cardinals have enough depth to pay a premium for Abreu and then still potentially have enough players or especially payroll space to swing another big move for an outfielder or for pitching.

Indians: Abreu would make a fine replacement at first base if Santana leaves in free agency, and Abreu’s short-term contract fits into the Tribe’s contention window.  The two division rivals may not be keen on supplying the other with either a top slugger or good prospects, however — Cleveland and Chicago have only worked out one trade with each other since 1994.

Mets: Injuries, platoon candidates, and unproven prospects have left the Mets’ roster with enough uncertainty that they’ve been linked to such varied targets as Santana, Lorenzo Cain, and Ian Kinsler.  Abreu would be a bigger add than Kinsler and would cost less money than Santana or Cain, though it remains to be seen if the Mets would have enough prospects to entice the White Sox.  Dominic Smith seems like a likely candidate to be offered in an Abreu trade package, though the Sox aren’t likely to be too enamored by a player who may have fallen out of favor with the Mets.

Padres: You may wonder why they’re on this list given the presence of Wil Myers, but San Diego has reportedly given some consideration to moving Myers to the corner outfield and pursuing Hosmer.  Given that the Padres are themselves rebuilding and Hosmer would be seen as a long-term building block for when the team is competitive again, Abreu’s two years of control likely makes the Friars an extreme long shot as trade partners for the White Sox.

Phillies: Another far-fetched trade candidate on paper, though since Philadelphia has been checking in on Carlos Santana, the Phils probably can’t be entirely ruled out as contenders for Abreu.  The Phillies have also been widely seen as planning to spend big in the 2018-19 free agent market, so if the team lands a superstar or two from that class, they could be planning to contend by 2019, so Abreu’s short-term control could be a fit (with Rhys Hoskins perhaps able to move back to first base for the 2020 season).

Rangers: Another team that was in on Abreu back in 2013, Texas is a bit of a tricky fit now.  Abreu’s addition would result in Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara becoming the regular corner outfielders, Shin-Soo Choo becoming the regular DH and top prospect Willie Calhoun fighting to find at-bats.  That is, unless, the Rangers made the bold move of offering Calhoun or even Mazara to Chicago as the headliner of an Abreu trade package.  Pitching is the more pressing need for the Rangers this offseason but if they can’t add enough big arms, they could do the opposite route and just try to load up on offense.

Red Sox: Abreu would instantly solve Boston’s power outage from last season and his short contract means that the Sox would still have an opening for Sam Travis or Rafael Devers at first in the relatively near future.  Dave Dombrowski already swung one blockbuster with Hahn last winter for Sale, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two sides again collaborated.  Jackie Bradley Jr. might be a person of interest in such a deal, as Chicago was interested in Bradley during past trade talks.

Rockies: As noted by Jeff Todd in his recent Offseason Outlook piece on Colorado’s winter plans, Abreu has been on the Rockies’ radar in the past and would be a very solid fit for a team that has a big hole at first base.  Abreu’s presence would move Ian Desmond into a corner outfield spot (maybe a better fit for Desmond anyway) and thus potentially block Raimel Tapia in the outfield and Ryan McMahon at first base.  Either youngster could conceivably go to the White Sox as part of an Abreu deal, however.

Royals: This scenario would only take place if Hosmer left but K.C. re-signed one of its other big free agents (Cain and Mike Moustakas).  If all three left, the Royals are likely to embark on a rebuild rather than make a splashy trade for Abreu.

Twins: Miguel Sano will reportedly be ready by early January after undergoing leg surgery in early November, though given the nature of the procedure (Sano is having a titanium rod inserted in his left leg), one has to wonder if Sano will spend more time at DH than at third base next season.  If this is the case, Minnesota isn’t a fit for Abreu since Joe Mauer is still locked in at first base.  If Sano is healthy enough to stay at the hot corner, the Twins could look into an Abreu trade, though they’re another team that has been more focused on pitching for their offseason shopping.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking For A Match In An Ian Kinsler Trade

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The offseason is off to a sluggish start, due perhaps to the ongoing trade talks involving Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton and the as-yet unresolved posting situation of Shohei Ohtani. Resolution on both matters may well come before long. In the meantime, we’re left to wonder which dominoes might be first to be knocked over thereafter — or, perhaps, whether some other transactions could jumpstart the action.

One player who we have consistently labeled a clear trade candidate is Ian Kinsler of the Tigers. He’s a quality veteran with one year left on his contract who’s currently employed by an organization that’s clearly rebuilding. And Detroit’s top baseball executive, Al Avila, has hardly made a secret of the club’s interest in taking offers.

Aug 26, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler (3) attempts a double play after getting Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) out during the fourth inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

With that in mind, it’s worth analyzing his market. Let’s start by sketching the asset under question. Kinsler is set to earn a manageable $11MM salary this year before reaching the open market. Though he’s 35 years of age and hit just .236/.313/.412 last year, Kinsler made plenty of hard contact and was likely somewhat unfortunate to carry a .244 batting average on balls in play. He also produced at a much loftier .288/.348/.484 clip the season prior and has a history of solidly above-average offensive work. Perhaps even more importantly, Kinsler has long rated as a superior defender and has been exceptionally durable, reaching 600 plate appearances every year since 2011.

There are other players available at second base, which will have an impact. On the trade side, Dee Gordon of the Marlins is much younger and comes at a similar annual cost over a three-year term, while the Phillies could be willing to deal the youthful and inexpensive Cesar Hernandez. Neil Walker is the top available free agent, with Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips among the other potential alternatives. Still, no other player carries quite the profile of Kinsler, whose reliability and palatable contract hold obvious appeal.

There are a few other considerations that could enter the picture. Per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, via Twitter, at least some organizations have considered acquiring Kinsler with the intention of utilizing him at third base. That’s a bit of a surprise, given that Kinsler is about as entrenched as any player at his usual position and has no more than nominal experience at third as a professional. Even if he can handle the hot corner, the added uncertainty would seem to reduce some of the very features that make Kinsler such an appealing target in the first place. It also may tie into his limited no-trade rights, which allow him to block deals to ten teams (though we don’t know which for the current season). While we don’t know for certain just what considerations will drive Kinsler’s views, it stands to reason that he’d be open to moving to a contending team at this stage.

With all that out of the way … where might Kinsler represent a match?

Angels — The Halos are already rumored to be looking at Kinsler, among other options. The organization has a clear need at second, possesses the payroll space and the competitive desire for this sort of player, and recently dealt for Justin Upton from Detroit. As fits go, this is about as clean as it gets. Of course, every other second baseman or team with one to trade will also be engaged with L.A. GM Billy Eppler, and he’ll likely shop around for value.

Blue Jays — While the Jays are in need up the middle, it’s not obvious from the outside that Kinser would really make the most sense. On the one hand, if Kinsler is willing to move around a bit, he’d look to be a solid match for the club’s stated desire in a utility player that might see near-regular action. On the other, he may or may not embrace that sort of role — which would be of particular relevance if the Jays are on Kinsler’s no-trade list. Indeed, Kinsler has reportedly nixed a move to Toronto previousy. It’s conceivable that the Jays could get creative, perhaps using Devon Travis as the utility-oriented player and installing Kinsler full-time at second, but that’s entering the realm of messy speculation.

Braves — Atanta is one of the organizations that could in theory view Kinsler as an option at third. He’d represent a solid veteran presence, plug a need (if he and the team are comfortable with making that position change), and avoid clogging the future balance sheet or blocking prospect Austin Riley in the future. At the same time, new GM Alex Anthopoulos is just settling in and it’s not yet entirely clear how he’ll proceed this winter. File the Braves under “not inconceivable but not outwardly likely.”

Brewers — There was some rumored interest from Milwaukee in Kinsler at the trade deadline and the Brewers haven’t yet firmed things up at second. There are options on hand, as the club struck a new contract with Eric Sogard and still has Jonathan Villar. And Milwaukee might like the idea of pursuing Neil Walker, who was the player ultimately added over the summer. Generally, though, acquiring Kinsler might allow the Brewers to boost their chances at competition without a huge outlay or long-term commitment, so they seem to be one of the more promising fits.

Giants — Third base is open; as above, then, this is a speculative fit in that regard. San Francisco has reportedly also at least engaged in some thought of trade permutations that might involve current second bagger Joe Panik, though at present it hardly seems likely that he’ll end up moving. Particularly if the team ends up breaking the bank to add Giancarlo Stanton or otherwise makes significant moves toward a rebound, Kinsler could make for a good value that wouldn’t compound the team’s concerns about adding aging veterans on lengthy contracts.

Mets — We’ve seen the Mets connected to Kinsler and the team is definitely weighing its options at second, so this makes immediate sense on paper. New York is believed to be working with some payroll restraints, though, so other moves could foreclose Kinsler as a plausible option. On the other hand, the team may like the idea of gaining a boost without adding too much salary, so it’s also imaginable that it would pursue Kinsler and then try to find cheaper upgrades in its other areas of need. (There are quite a few options in the first base/corner outfield market that the team is also exploring.)

Royals — Whit Merrifield established himself at second, but perhaps he or Kinsler could be options at third. The Royals will be walking a fine line this winter, weighing the risks of a big payroll with the desire to sustain competitiveness and perhaps bring back one or two of its own star free agents. It’s not impossible to imagine Kinsler fitting in if the team manages to land Eric Hosmer and wants to install a solid veteran without tacking onto the future balance sheets, though it’s an awfully tight fit at first glance.

That really represents the field of the most likely suitors, as things stand. Roster changes can always shake things up, of course, and organizations such as the Yankees and Cardinals could in theory end up seeing Kinsler as an option at second or third if they first line up corresponding moves involving existing players. (At least some chatter has suggested those teams are considering infield moves, though it’s exceedingly speculative at present.) Somewhat similarly, the Dodgers reputedly had interest in Kinsler in the past, but they picked up their option over Logan Forsythe and it’s tough to imagine both fitting sensibly on that roster. There’s a match in terms of potential need for some other clubs — the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Rays, for example — but the payroll limitations at play in those situations make it difficult to imagine without several intervening developments first coming to pass.

All told, then, the clearest matches on paper exist with three organizations. The Angels, Brewers, and Mets could all simply install Kinsler as an everyday option at second without significantly altering other aspects of their roster construction. But other transactions could create new fits, and it’s also far too soon to rule out other clubs getting a bit creative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Yonder Alonso Trade

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Yonder Alonso turned himself from non-tender candidate last winter to the Athletics’ representative at the All-Star Game two weeks ago.  Thanks in large part to an offseason swing change aimed to deliver more fly balls, Alonso is enjoying by far the best of his eight big league seasons.  The first baseman is batting .263/.361/.527 with 21 homers over 346 plate appearances, and is producing 38% more runs than the average hitter as per the wRC+ metric.  Beyond just putting the ball in the air more often, Alonso is also exhibiting more discipline at the plate, with a career-best 12.7% walk rate.

It all adds up to a nice platform year for Alonso as he heads into free agency this winter, and the A’s gain an extra trade chip they perhaps didn’t expect to have when they decided to bring Alonso back on a one-year, $4MM contract for 2017.  With only about $1.31MM remaining on Alonso’s deal and his big numbers, he stands out among other remaining rental players as a particularly inexpensive lineup upgrade.

Yonder AlonsoThe counter-argument for Alonso as a prime deadline pickup is that his numbers significantly cooled off in June and July after a torrid start to the season.  Since Alonso was little more than a league-average hitter from 2010-16, some teams could believe that he is simply a two-month wonder rather than a true breakout player.  He also carries pronounced splits (a .950 OPS against right-handed pitching against just a .685 OPS against southpaws). When that’s combined with Alonso’s subpar defense and baserunning stats, he doesn’t bring much to the table unless he can keep punishing righties.

Another complication is the fact that most contenders are already set at first base or designated hitter, and that fairly thin list of potential Alonso suitors got a bit thinner when the Rays acquired Lucas Duda from the Mets.  Alonso has played a bit of third base and left field in his career, but would hardly be a passable option at either position.  With only one team reportedly showing legitimate interest in Alonso, Oakland might have to get a bit creative to find a trade partner and recoup a good prospect or two in return, unless an injury shakes up the market.  Here are a few of the potential fits…

Yankees: This post really could be called “Looking For A Match In A Yonder Alonso Trade Besides The Yankees,” since the Bronx Bombers are Alonso’s only known suitors, and they’ve stood out for weeks as the most obvious candidates for his services.  New York and Oakland have been engaged in talks about not just Alonso, but also ace righty Sonny Gray, with recent reports suggesting that the Yankees could be trying to land both in a package deal.  First base has been a problem area all season long for the Yankees, with converted third baseman Chase Headley serving as the most recent option at first since Todd Frazier took over the everyday duties at the hot corner.  (Headley, a switch-hitter, has actually hit quite well over the last two months.) Alonso’s left-handed bat and his newfound ability to put the ball in the air would seemingly make him a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field, so New York has to be considered the leaders in the Alonso sweepstakes until proven otherwise.

Mariners: Alonso would supplant Danny Valencia as the everyday first baseman, and the two in tandem would create quite a formidable platoon given that Valencia has always mashed left-handed pitching.  These sluggers were teammates in Oakland last season before Valencia was dealt to the Mariners, so clearly the M’s and A’s are open to trading with each other.  Seattle doesn’t have a particularly deep minor league system, though one can’t rule GM Jerry Dipoto out of any trade scenario.

Red Sox: Mitch Moreland’s production has badly fallen off since suffering a broken toe, and Alonso could slot right into Moreland’s role as the regular first baseman (with Hanley Ramirez or perhaps rookie Sam Travis getting the odd start against lefty pitchers).  The Red Sox have been looking for ways to jumpstart a slumping offense, so Alonso would boost a lineup that has posted below-average numbers against right-handed pitching.

Royals: Eric Hosmer is firmly entrenched at first base, so Kansas City might explore Alonso as an upgrade over left-handed hitting DH Brandon Moss, who has just a .696 overall OPS for the season and only a .623 OPS against righties.  Moss has been red-hot in July, however, so this may no longer be quite as pressing a need as it was just a few weeks ago.  The Royals have been mostly on the lookout for pitching help at the deadline, though they did have an interest in J.D. Martinez before he was dealt to Arizona.

Astros: It’s hard to imagine that Houston’s lineup could actually get scarier, though DH Carlos Beltran is hitting just .234/.288/.405 and is on pace for a sub-replacement level season.  Alonso could add a left-handed hitting complement to righty bats Yuli Gurriel and Evan Gattis in the first base/DH mix.  Houston already has such an embarrassment of offensive riches that it might not be willing to give up much of a prospect return for what would be a pure luxury, especially when that prospect or prospects would be going to an AL West rival.  Then again, the Astros have also been linked to Sonny Gray, so they could also potentially look into a Gray/Alonso package deal.  GM Jeff Luhnow recently stated that the team is already looking ahead to potential needs for October, so if Luhnow feels the Astros need more left-handed balance in their lineup, Alonso could come onto their radar.

Rockies: Despite a league-worst wRC+ (78) against right-handed pitching and an overall offense that ranks 24th of 30 teams in fWAR, Colorado is still solidly holding on an NL wild card slot.  Without a designated hitter spot available, however, the Rockies don’t really have room for Alonso — they’re already shuttling Ian Desmond between first base and left field, with Mark Reynolds and Gerardo Parra handling whatever position Desmond isn’t occupying.  Even if Carlos Gonzalez’s nightmarish 2017 season results in a loss of his everyday job, the Rox might turn to internal options — such as top prospect Ryan McMahon — before looking at a player like Alonso to help the lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking For A Match In A Justin Verlander Trade

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In recent seasons, the veteran-laden Tigers have frequently headed into the summer as trade deadline buyers, but with a 45-55 record this year and J.D. Martinez already out the door, 2017 looks like a different story. One star who could be on the move is Justin Verlander, who joins a starting pitching market that also includes Sonny Gray and Yu Darvish. The Tigers have a variety of other players potentially available, including Ian Kinsler, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila, and they’ve reportedly discussed package deals, so if the Tigers trade Verlander, it could be along with one or more of his teammates.

Justin VerlanderThat’s not to say a Verlander trade would be easy. It’s impossible to discuss the righty’s potential market without noting his contract — he’s making $28MM per season through 2019, plus a $22MM vesting option for 2020. That option contains no buyout and only vests if Verlander finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting in 2019, but the $66MM or so remaining on Verlander’s contract is still a significant obstacle. At last check, the Tigers did not appear willing to take on a significant portion of Verlander’s deal, though they reportedly would pay the remainder of his 2017 salary. His full no-trade clause could present another potential problem.

And then there’s Verlander’s performance — he finished second in AL Cy Young balloting just last season but has taken a big step backwards this year, with a 4.50 ERA and 8.7 K/9 over 124 innings, plus a 4.1 BB/9 that’s almost twice as high as it was in 2016. At 34, that’s a serious concern, particularly when considered alongside his hefty contract. That means the Tigers might not get much if they trade him. Also, his star status in Detroit might not ordinarily be an impediment, but it might be in this case, since, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently pointed out, fans might react poorly to a Verlander deal for a limited return.

With all that in mind, here are a few potential landing spots for Verlander.

Cubs: Even after acquiring Jose Quintana, the Cubs are known to have interest in starting pitching, and Verlander would give them another veteran arm to help them manage the possible losses of Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency next winter. They’ve reportedly scouted Verlander and have discussed him with the Tigers, and they’re one of only a handful of teams who clearly could afford him. They’re also reportedly interested in acquiring a catcher, so perhaps there could be a deal involving both Verlander and Avila, particularly since Avila makes a mere $2MM and has been productive this season. The intensity of the Cubs’ interest in Verlander is unclear, and as with all teams, his contract will be an obstacle.

Astros: Houston has been connected to Verlander, along with Wilson, although the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech characterized the Astros’ level of involvement in Verlander trade talks as “minimal.” The team’s recent return to health, with Collin McHugh returning from injury and Dallas Keuchel set to come back this week, might make the Astros more likely to pursue top-end starters rather than innings eaters, since they currently have enough reliable arms to fill out their rotation. Their interest in Verlander, then, might depend on whether they still see him as an ace-type pitcher. Verlander’s contract would of course be a factor as well, although the Astros do appear to have the payroll flexibility to add him, particularly if the Tigers are willing to pay what’s left of his 2017 salary.

Yankees: The Yankees have been connected to a variety of rotation possibilities and could potentially afford Verlander, although their luxury-tax bill is a concern. They haven’t recently been connected to Verlander in particular, though, and based on published reports, seem to have greater interest in Gray. They also have a clear need for another A’s veteran, Yonder Alonso, which might give them further incentive to continue talking with Oakland. Verlander could, however, represent an interesting alternative to Gray whose acquisition likely wouldn’t cost the Yankees top prospects.

Dodgers: L.A. has repeatedly been connected to Darvish, while there haven’t been many indications they’re seriously interested in Verlander. Still, they have an injured ace (Clayton Kershaw), and their seemingly wide-open wallet would give them a big advantage if they decided they had serious interest.

Nationals: The Nats haven’t been strongly connected to Verlander, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently indicated that they aren’t in on Gray or Darvish. Injuries to Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross have left them with some rotation questions, however, and they generally aren’t shy about adding big-name players. They’ve also been connected to Wilson.

Brewers: Milwaukee has reportedly shown interest in Verlander, along with other rotation options. The Brewers have also been connected to Wilson and Kinsler, again raising the possibility the Tigers could strike some sort of package deal. And the Brewers under owner Mark Attanasio have never been shy about adding big-name pitching as they’ve prepared for past stretch runs, adding CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke in past seasons in which they contended. All that written, it seems especially unlikely that they would consummate a deal for Verlander. His age and salary could potentially pose big problems for a generally budget-conscious organization (although one with few long-term commitments at the moment). And the Brewers’ 2017 run at the NL Central title, while impressive, has if anything been a pleasant surprise from a team that seemed to be rebuilding. They recently fell into second place, behind the Cubs, and their fade might make them less likely to make a big move.

Rockies: Acquiring Verlander would be a break from the Rockies’ M.O., but they’ve shown interest in rotation upgrades and have limited payroll obligations beyond 2017, so Verlander could theoretically be a fit. They have enough interesting young arms to fill out their rotation, but could potentially benefit from a veteran anchor. Of course, it’s not clear that Verlander is the right veteran anchor for them, given his contract, fly-ball tendencies and sketchy 2017 performance thus far. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would accept a deal that would place him in Coors Field, a stadium that could potentially hurt his future earning power.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks have already swung one big trade with the Tigers, and there have at least been whispers about the possibility they could look to improve their rotation. Most current rumors about the Snakes focus on other areas, however, and all five of their current starters have performed capably this year.

Red Sox: Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to headline-grabbing trades, and he was general manager of the Tigers when Detroit drafted Verlander in 2004. With Eduardo Rodriguez’s recent return to health, though, the Red Sox five healthy starting pitchers who each could potentially pitch well for the remainder of the season, and most rumors about the team since their acquisition of infielder Eduardo Nunez have pertained to relievers, not starters.

Mariners: The M’s have been connected to Gray, and the odds that Jerry Dipoto will find a way to insert them into a significant trade can never fully be discounted. They are, however, below .500 at this point and already have big salaries for Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz on the books for 2018.

Royals: Kansas City has been on the lookout for starting pitching, although the Royals have mostly been connected to lower-tier options like Francisco Liriano, Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia (plus Trevor Cahill, who they already acquired). It would seem extremely unlikely that they’d take on Verlander’s contract, given their uncertain future as an organization and the fact that their 2017 payroll is already the highest they’ve ever had.

Indians: The back of the Indians’ rotation has struggled, although Danny Salazar’s recent return to health helps them in that regard, and trading for a pitcher with Verlander’s salary would be out of character for them.

Braves: The Braves look like longshots at best to acquire Verlander at the deadline, since they aren’t contending, and they recently traded a veteran arm in Garcia. It’s also unclear whether Verlander would be willing to accept a trade to a below-.500 team. If the Braves do acquire someone of Verlander’s ilk, that might be more likely to happen in the offseason. They’ve been connected to a variety of controllable veteran starters, however, and have enough money coming off the books next year that they could theoretically afford him.

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Looking For A Match In A Yu Darvish Trade

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With next Monday’s 4 p.m. ET trade deadline looming, there’s a chance right-hander Yu Darvish’s start on Wednesday will go down as his last in a Rangers uniform. If that 3 2/3-inning, 10-earned run disaster against Miami does represent the impending free agent’s swan song in Texas, it’ll be a shame for both parties. Darvish has generally been masterful since signing a six-year, $56MM contract in 2012 to emigrate from Japan. The 30-year-old has pitched to a 3.42 ERA and totaled upward of 18 wins above replacement across nearly 800 innings, making his deal well worth the investment for Texas, even when including the $51.7MM posting fee.

Yu Darvish

Darvish’s pact is now on the verge of expiring, while the Rangers are the owners of a 49-52 record after their 22-10 drubbing at the Marlins’ hands. That uninspiring mark has helped make the Rangers irrelevant in the American League West, which the 67-34 Astros ran away with long ago, but they’re still a manageable 4.5 games out in a parity-laden wild-card race.

With his team tenuously clutching to postseason hopes, Texas general manager Jon Daniels isn’t a lock to sell by Monday. Even if he does, Darvish might not go anywhere. Multiple reports this week have indicated that it would take a godfather offer for Daniels to part with Darvish, whom the Rangers would like to re-sign. And if the team keeps the four-time All-Star through season’s end but isn’t able to prevent him from testing free agency, it would surely make him a qualifying offer in order to receive compensation – a pick after the second round of next year’s draft – for his departure. That wouldn’t be much immediate consolation for the Rangers, but it’s among several factors that could influence them to retain Darvish past the deadline.

Although the Rangers may be content to ride it out with Darvish, pitcher-needy contenders have inquired about the Arlington ace in recent weeks and figure to continue doing so leading up to Monday. As such, there will be opportunities for clubs to pry Darvish away from the Rangers. The Cubs, Dodgers, Astros and Yankees come to the fore as potential landing spots, having already shown interest in Darvish.

In Chicago, Darvish would join Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and the just-acquired Jose Quintana to comprise one of the Majors’ most proven rotations. That quintet would more than likely do enough to help the reigning World Series champions fend off the Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates in the National League Central. The Cubs aren’t exactly a flawless fit, though, given that they’re on Darvish’s limited no-trade list and also seem more inclined to chase a controllable starter (such as the Athletics’ Sonny Gray) than give up a prospect bounty for a rental.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pointed out last week, the Cubs are only a year removed from paying a heavy price for a free agent-to-be, closer Aroldis Chapman, whom they acquired from the Yankees in a deal that included standout infield prospect Gleyber Torres. Picking up Chapman helped the Cubs win their first championship in 108 years, but that doesn’t mean they should continue to deplete their farm system to acquire stopgaps. Further, should the Cubs reach the playoffs with their current rotation, they’d be in more-than-adequate shape, thereby lessening any need for Darvish. While all of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks and Quintana have failed to replicate their 2016 numbers, that doesn’t make them weak links. The only significant disappointment has been John Lackey, who’s not going to factor into the Cubs’ rotation plans in the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Astros, who possess the two best records in baseball, aren’t hard up for starting help. Nevertheless, the Dodgers’ interest in Darvish was reportedly “serious” even before ace Clayton Kershaw suffered a back injury last Sunday that will keep him out until late August or early September. At an astounding 71-31, the Dodgers can cruise to the NL’s top seed even with Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy on the disabled list, and they still boast four decent to excellent healthy starters in Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu.

It’s true that there are durability concerns scattered throughout the Dodgers’ staff, yet Darvish still remains much more of a luxury than a need. Therefore, even with a World Series in their sights, it’s tough to imagine the Dodgers meeting the Rangers’ asking price for Darvish. Los Angeles would probably have to part with one of its most extolled prospects, whether it’s outfielder Alex Verdugo or a young righty in Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez, which doesn’t seem like something president Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi would do in this instance.

The same applies to Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, who refused for months to budge in a standoff with the White Sox over Quintana. Unlike Darvish, Quintana is under team control at eminently affordable rates through 2020. Nevertheless, Luhnow wouldn’t deal a package including outfielder Kyle Tucker and righty Francis Martes for the southpaw over the winter. Keeping his team’s prospect pool together has worked out nicely for Luhnow, who has seen Houston establish itself as the premier unit in the AL this year.

The Astros have gotten ace-caliber performances along the way from Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers (the former has missed notable time with neck issues, though), while Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock and Mike Fiers have provided quality complementary work. The club also just welcomed back bona fide mid-rotation starter Collin McHugh from an elbow issue that kept him out for nearly the entire first four months of the season. All of that is to say there’s enough starting talent on hand to confidently rely on in a playoff series. Consequently, the Astros don’t seem like serious suitors for a couple months of Darvish, and Luhnow has indicated that he’s comfortable with his bevy of current options.

As for the Yankees, with Masahiro Tanaka in the midst of a mediocre to poor year and Michael Pineda having undergone season-ending Tommy John surgery this month, they do have obvious rotation issues. The problem for the Rangers, if you want to call it that, is New York’s eyes have been on Gray far more than Darvish. The only current Yankees starters who are surefire bets to be in their rotation next season are Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery, as Tanaka could opt out of his deal (which looks improbable, granted) and CC Sabathia is set to become a free agent. Even though Darvish is arguably superior to Gray, then, the latter would perhaps be the more sensible acquisition for a Yankees team that needs to better their starting staff for both this year and the coming seasons.

Beyond those four squads, a match for Darvish is even more difficult to find. Most clubs either occupying wild-card spots or at least hanging around the league’s playoff races – the Royals, Rays, Mariners, Twins, Angels, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates – don’t look like proper fits for various reasons (mainly weak farm systems and/or low playoff odds).

The Royals have been red hot and are in their last hurrah of contention with the core that helped deliver a championship in 2015, but their farm is lacking enough to impede a Darvish pursuit. Kansas City, which isn’t on Darvish’s no-trade list and has a flaw or two in its rotation, would otherwise be a logical destination.

The Rockies, who have a four-game lead on the NL’s second wild-card position, possess a middle-of-the-pack rotation that would certainly benefit from Darvish’s addition. However, even if Colorado were to make a serious run at Darvish, there’s a large roadblock in that it’s among the teams on his no-trade list. Whether he’d waive that right just to spend the stretch run of his contract year at Coors Field is questionable to say the least.

As first-place teams, the Red Sox, Nationals and Indians look like strong bets to earn playoff berths. They’re hardly clear-cut bedfellows for Darvish, though. Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski is never shy to make a daring move, but the club’s rotation is in fine shape as it is with Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez in the equation.

Speculatively, the Nationals may have been been a big factor in the Darvish sweepstakes had Stephen Strasburg’s nerve injury been serious. Strasburg’s OK, according to the club, which isn’t in on Darvish. It’s interesting to imagine Darvish teaming with Strasburg and the great Max Scherzer as the Nats’ top three starters come October, but there’s nothing to suggest it’s going to happen.

Cleveland, another place on Darvish’s no-trade list, has come up as a potential suitor for Gray. The Indians have been the beneficiaries of Mike Clevinger’s breakout, but their rotation could still use a surer thing to complement Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. Darvish would provide that, but again, it would mean waving goodbye to acclaimed farm talent for a Band-Aid. That’s something the Indians might not want to do 12 months after sending touted prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield to the Yankees for Andrew Miller.

Darvish’s next scheduled start is Aug. 1, the day after the deadline, and there’s a legitimate possibility that outing will come in a Rangers uniform. Barring an intrepid move from one of the imperfect fits highlighted above, it seems Darvish and the Rangers will continue their union for at least another two months. Regardless of whether that proves to be the case, the impending free agent will spend the rest of the year making an argument for a mega-deal. With a 4.01 ERA that looks pedestrian in comparison to his marvelous career production, it appears he has work to do on that front. Darvish remains a flamethrowing strikeout maven, though, which means some playoff-bound team could talk itself into paying a ransom for him in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Sonny Gray Trade

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For the third consecutive July, Sonny Gray’s name figures to permeate headlines at MLBTR and throughout the industry, as the Athletics are well out of the race for the American League West and for an American League Wild Card spot.

Interest in Gray figures to be heightened in 2017 given that he’s looked more impressive on the mound than he did in an injury-shortened 2016 season. While it has to be noted that Gray did miss the month of April due to a strained lat muscle, the 27-year-old has returned to throw 64 2/3 innings of 4.45 ERA ball. Obviously, that’s not an especially appealing number, but most front offices in today’s game aren’t overly swayed by ERA, and the underlying stats with Gray are considerably more intriguing.

Sonny Gray

Gray has averaged 9.1 strikeouts (his highest since his rookie season) and 3.1 walks per nine innings pitched while inducing grounders at a 54.9 percent clip thus far in the season. His 93.4 mph average fastball velocity is still strong, and he’s inducing more chasing outside the strike zone (31.4 percent) than he ever has in his career. Perhaps unsurprisingly, his swinging-strike rate (12 percent) and opponents’ contact rate (74.2 percent) have both improved accordingly. Each of those marks is also a career-best for Gray.

Moreover, while Gray gets some benefit from playing in the spacious O.Co Coliseum, whatever help he receives is largely mitigated by the fact that the Athletics are the worst defensive team in baseball. Oakland’s -47 mark in Defensive Runs Saved is eight runs worse than the closest team (the Giants) and 19 runs worse than the 28th-ranked Blue Jays. Ultimate Zone Rating tells a similar story, grading the A’s at an MLB-worst -31.7. All of that has played prominently in his elevated ERA, as Gray’s .320 BABIP is the highest mark of his career to date.

Last year’s health troubles obviously have to be a concern to interested teams, but there’s a small silver lining: Gray’s price in arbitration was dramatically impacted both by his lack of innings in 2016 and his substandard results. He’s earning at an eminently affordable $3.575MM rate in 2017 and is controllable for two more years, through his age-29 season, before hitting free agency.

All of this is to say, of course, that the asking price for Gray will be steep. In spite of recent injury troubles, the paucity of controllable starters that will be available on the market and the vast number of teams looking to swing a deal for a player that can help their rotation beyond 2017 figure to result in a huge return for the A’s if they ultimately decide to move their ace.

Any team that’s seriously considering a run at Gray will have to have a fairly strong farm system and/or some young, MLB-ready talent with less than a year of club control on the table in talks. The A’s almost certainly aren’t going to move Gray for anyone that’s within arm’s reach of arbitration eligibility. The endgame here is to pick up multiple long-term assets that won’t have any real earning power for several more years.

Oakland, after all, has a wave of young prospects hitting the Majors right now and undoubtedly hopes that those assets can quickly help to form the core of a contender. Ryon Healy arrived on the scene last year, while this season has brought forth names like Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Jaycob Brugman and Bruce Maxwell, among others. It doesn’t seem likely that the A’s would be open to moving Gray for a package of high-ceiling 19-year-olds that are three years away from the Majors.

All of that probably puts fringe contenders like the Orioles, Angels, Mariners and Royals at a disadvantage. It’s feasible that Seattle could make a run in the wake of Drew Smyly’s Tommy John surgery, but their system is pretty light on top-end talent, the A’s are a division rival, and their lone shot in 2017 is to get into the playoffs via Wild Card. That Gray is controlled through 2019 no doubt appeals to them, but I have to imagine that other clubs could put together more enticing offers.

It’s likely fair to also cross off any of the Giants, Padres, Reds, Phillies, Mets, Tigers, Marlins and White Sox. Each is well under .500, and many of those clubs are in the midst of a rebuild. Looking to some clear contenders that are in win-now mode, however, there are lots of readily apparent suitors for Gray…

Astros: Houston has been the most oft-linked team to Gray, as many pundits expect that they’ll add a front-line arm to join Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers in the playoff rotation. The Astros have plenty of high-end pitching prospects that aren’t yet proven in the big leagues (e.g. Francis Martes, David Paulino) as well as upper-level position prospects that don’t necessarily have a clear path to regular at-bats in the Majors (e.g. Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez). Houston also spent very aggressively on this past year’s international market, so they’ll have some potential impact talent rising through the ranks to replenish the system if they trade from their upper levels.

Cubs: Virtually the entire Chicago rotation has taken a step back in 2017, and whether it’s due to a potential “hangover” effect of last year’s lengthy postseason run or simply the year-to-year volatility that comes with pitchers, they’re in need of help. The Cubs entered the year with a questionable fifth slot in the rotation to begin with, and they’ve now lost Kyle Hendricks to the DL while Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jon Lester are all offering reduced production, to varying extents. Chicago is rife with young position players that could appeal to the A’s, though they’re reportedly not especially amenable to trading any of their young big league bats.

Yankees: The Yankees will be without CC Sabathia for awhile, and Masahiro Tanaka has struggled for much of the season. Michael Pineda’s home run problems are more pronounced than ever, though he’s still managed to turn in solid overall results. However, the Yankees could lose Pineda, Sabathia and Tanaka at season’s end, leaving them with significant holes to fill in the rotation. Jordan Montgomery may very well be emerging as a long-term option, but he also threw just 139 innings last year, so at some point they’ll want to monitor his workload. Like the Cubs, the Yankees’ farm is stuffed with intriguing prospects. And for New York, there’s an additional (albeit entirely speculative) scenario to consider: with first base being a clear point of weakness, could they line up a package deal to land both Gray and Yonder Alonso in the same trade?

Dodgers: Rich Hill hasn’t looked like the 2015-16 version of himself this year, and Julio Urias will miss this season and possibly much of next year due to an ominous shoulder surgery. Gray would slot directly into a playoff rotation alongside Clayton Kershaw and breakout star Alex Wood, and the Dodgers aren’t lacking for appealing trade chips. Cody Bellinger is assuredly off limits, but prospects like Alex Verdugo, Willie Calhoun and others would likely pique Oakland’s interest.

Rockies: Colorado has leaned heavily on young pitching this season, but those inexperienced arms have begun to labor in recent weeks. Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland come with some rather dubious peripherals, and lefty Tyler Anderson is now out for a month or so due to arthroscopic knee surgery. Jon Gray is returning from the DL, and Jeff Hoffman looks terrific, but there’s virtually no experience in the rotation beyond Tyler Chatwood and, to a lesser extent, the other Gray (Jon). Perhaps some of the young but raw arms that Colorado has leaned upon this year (e.g. German Marquez) could entice the A’s, and Colorado has prospects like outfielder Raimel Tapia and infielder Ryan McMahon that are somewhat blocked at the big league level. Per Nick Groke of the Denver Post, however, Brendan Rodgers is almost entirely off limits.

Diamondbacks: The rotation isn’t a clear area of need for the D-backs. In fact, it’s been one of the team’s strengths. They also have a weak farm system and may prefer to simply stick with the arms that have gotten them this far, so  perhaps this is too much of a long shot for serious consideration. But, there also aren’t many holes on the Diamondbacks’ roster, and they’d currently turn to one of Zack Godley, Patrick Corbin or Taijuan Walker as the third starter behind Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray in a playoff rotation. Arizona might not have expected to be in this position, but they’re firmly in the hunt for the division and look, at worst, to be a Wild Card favorite. The core that’s propelled them will be around through at least 2018 — and most of it through at least 2019 — meaning Gray aligns well with the rest of their roster.

Indians: Like the Cubs, the Indians have seen a number of their pitchers take a step back in 2017. They, too, entered the year with a questionable setup at the very back of the rotation, and Danny Salazar’s sharp decline, paired with the struggles of Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, creates a need for rotation help as Cleveland finds itself in a surprising race with the Twins and Royals for top billing in the AL Central. Last year’s deal for Andrew Miller thinned out the farm, but they’re hardly hurting for top-end prospects. Bradley Zimmer’s impressive play in the Majors probably removes him as a consideration in trades, but Cleveland has some potentially blocked assets in Tyler Naquin and Yandy Diaz as well as a number of upper-level prospects that have yet to break into the bigs.

Red Sox: Third base will probably be Boston’s primary area of focus, but they’ve already been linked to Gray on the rumor circuit. The Boston rotation is already stacked with high-profile names, but David Price’s elbow issues and early struggles make him something of a question mark, and Rick Porcello hasn’t replicated his 2016 Cy Young form yet. Eduardo Rodriguez, meanwhile, is dealing with knee issues, while Steven Wright is out for the season and Doug Fister is a wild card. Chris Sale will join Price and Porcello in a potential playoff rotation for the Sox, though, so the notion of adding Gray to the mix might be a stretch, especially with the aforementioned greater need at the hot corner.

Each of those clubs looks to be firmly in “win-now” mode, but there are also a few teams that are walking the line between winning in the present while also building for the future. They may be a bit more of a stretch, but each has reason to at least explore the possibility of pursuing Gray.

Twins/Brewers: These two teams are in a fairly similar position. Both entered the year with a long-term outlook in mind, but both now surprisingly find themselves contending sooner than expected. Mortgaging the future wouldn’t be prudent if it meant acquiring a rental piece, but adding an affordable arm that can be controlled through 2019, when each team’s core has gained more experience, could hold appeal. Milwaukee has the better farm system of the two and has more outfielders than it knows what to do with, but the Twins still have some Top 100 prospects as well as some younger pieces that have yet to solidify themselves in the Majors. It’s worth noting, too, that Minnesota GM Thad Levine has already expressed an openness to acquiring long-term assets.

Braves: David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently linked the Braves to Gray, and while he’s reportedly not atop their wish list, his controllable nature should hold appeal to GM John Coppolella, who has never been shy about brokering trades. Depending on your prospect list of choice, the Braves have roughly 10 percent of the game’s Top 100 prospects in their ranks, so if they do decide that Gray is worth the considerable price, they’ll have plenty of pieces to entice Oakland president Billy Beane and GM David Forst.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Rich Hill Trade

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Something as small as a blister could have a huge impact on this year’s trade deadline.  Rich Hill was forced to leave Sunday’s start against the Blue Jays after just five pitches due to a popped blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, disappointing the many scouts in attendance and bringing into question the status of perhaps the most hotly-pursued starter heading into August 1.

Injury may have been the only thing that could’ve lowered Hill’s trade value at this point.  The 36-year-old lefty already missed a month recovering from a groin strain, though he looked good in his first two outings back from the DL.  This blister issue already caused Hill’s first post-break start to be pushed back two days, and now Hill believes it will at least a few days before the blister heals well enough for him to throw again.  It could be a full week before Hill takes the mound again, leaving him time for perhaps two starts before the trade deadline.

Needless to say, this isn’t a welcome development for an A’s team that was looking to cash in on Hill’s unexpected dominance.  Between his four-start emergence for the Red Sox in 2015 and his continued terrific work in 2016, Hill has posted a 2.06 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 3.82 K/BB over his past 105 innings.  Hill is a free agent this winter and is owed around $2.3MM for the remainder of the season, making him an easily affordable rental for teams in both large and small markets.

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Affordable in salary, that is — not necessarily affordable in terms of the return it will take to pry him out of Oakland.  Hill has pitched so well that the A’s could justify issuing him a qualifying offer in order to recoup a first-round compensation draft pick back if Hill signed elsewhere.  (Though it’s an interesting question if Hill would accept the QO to lock in a one-year deal in the $16MM range, which would certainly impact the A’s decision to issue the offer.)  That means the Athletics’ absolute minimum asking price will be a prospect graded as equal to the value of that comp pick, and the asking price to this point has been much higher; the A’s reportedly initially wanted Anderson Espinoza when the Red Sox inquired about Hill.

The blister and groin strain underline the great unknown that is Hill’s durability, as the 76 innings he’s thrown this year is already the third-highest innings total of his 12-year career.  This being said, in a very thin summer market for starting pitching, Hill may still emerge as the top arm available if he is able to recover from his blister and deliver at least one more quality start before the deadline.  There’s been so much interest in Hill that the A’s should still be able to find a trade partner, even if their hopes of landing a top-tier prospect may not be realized.

Billy Beane, David Forst and company will probably take the usual route of looking for the best talent available when shopping Hill, Josh Reddick, Danny Valencia or other trade chips before Aug. 1.  If the A’s do prioritize a need, Baseball America’s Jim Shonerd (BA subscription required) recently noted that the A’s are thin on minor league outfield talent.  That could be a particular area of focus in trade talks, especially if Reddick is also dealt.  It’s also not out of the question that Oakland looks to add a Major League player, given that the Athletics have been loath to fully rebuild in the Beane era.  While the A’s have struggled over the last two seasons, recent history suggests that they have their eye on rebounding in 2017.

Over a third of the league has been scouting Hill or has been otherwise connected to him in trade rumors, and you can make a case that a few other postseason contenders could also be a fit for the 36-year-old lefty.  Let’s try to figure out who might be best-positioned to trade for Hill, beginning with the 11 teams who have already shown interest…

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Looking For A Match In A Ryan Braun Trade

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Ryan Braun was already into the fourth year of an eight-year, $45MM extension with the Brewers when he signed another extension that theoretically made him a Brewer for life.  That deal, signed in April 2011, only just began this season — a five-year, $105MM extension covering the 2016-20 seasons that also includes a $15MM mutual option for 2021 (that can be bought out for $4MM).

The Brewers reached the NLCS in 2011 on the strength of Braun’s NL MVP numbers, though it’s been a rougher ride for both player and team ever since.  Braun’s MVP was called into question after he tested positive for PEDs following the season, though that positive test was overturned in very controversial fashion.  The outfielder then did face suspension for his part in the Biogenesis PED scandal, accepting a 65-game ban that prematurely cut short his 2013 season.  Beyond the disciplinary issues, Braun has also had his share of injury problems, including a nagging nerve injury in his right thumb, a bad back that required surgery last offseason and some wrist and neck soreness this season.

So with Braun now in his age-32 season, there’s no question that he carries a fair amount of baggage for potential trade suitors.  Beyond the salary, injury history and PED history, there’s also the fact that Braun wields a great deal of control over his movement via a 23-team no-trade clause.  For 2016, the only six teams not on his list are the Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins and Padres.

Ryan Braun

With all of this in mind, Braun is nonetheless one of baseball’s top trade candidates as we approach the August 1 deadline because he can still flat-out hit.  He has cooled off a bit in June after a blazing-hot start, yet Braun is still hitting .325/.381/.557 with 13 homers in 270 plate appearances this season.  When healthy, Braun is still a very dangerous bat who could improve virtually any contender’s lineup.

The Brewers find themselves in something of a kingmaker’s position this deadline, as they not only have Braun, but also perhaps the single biggest trade chip of all in catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  I examined Lucroy’s trade market earlier in June and speculated that Milwaukee GM David Stearns could look to kill two birds with one stone by packaging Braun and Lucroy in the same trade; Lucroy’s team-friendly contract could make a team more willing to absorb all of Braun’s deal, leaving the Brew Crew with tons of future payroll flexibility.

Owner Mark Attanasio, however, is reportedly more focused on adding blue chip young talent to his organization than he is about getting Braun’s contract off the books.  There are also relatively few teams that could realistically meet what would still be a substantial asking price for a Braun/Lucroy combo.  It’s a fun idea from a blockbuster standpoint, though it’s probably not in the cards.

Focusing just on Braun, then, let’s go through the teams that could use corner outfield help.  Braun shifted back to left field this season after playing right primarily in 2014-15, though his defensive metrics as a right fielder (minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved and -7.7 UZR/150) aren’t pretty.  He could return to the position in a pinch with a new team, though it’s rather clear that Braun is more serviceable in left, where the metrics are split (31 DRS but -4.0 UZR/150 over his career in left field) on his glove.

Let’s begin with the six teams exempt from Braun’s no-trade list…

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