Looking For A Match In A Trade

The Best Fits For Nelson Cruz

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

As the Twins’ miserable season has continued, there’s been increasing talk of them operating as a deadline seller over the next three weeks. Nearly every contender will ask about Jose Berrios. There’s been speculation about the availability of Taylor Rogers. Josh Donaldson has been connected to the Mets. Michael Pineda is a pending free agent who could help quite a few rotations.

Over the course of the next few weeks, though, Nelson Cruz will be one of the highest-impact trade candidates to monitor. The seemingly ageless slugger is having yet another excellent season, slashing .299/.372/.553 (147 wRC+) with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz’s 18.8 percent strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He just celebrated his 41st birthday, but he remains one of the game’s top threats at the plate.

Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, playing out the 2021 campaign on a one-year, $13MM contract. As of this writing, there’s about $6MM remaining to be paid out on that pact. By the time the deadline rolls around, Cruz will be owed about $4.5MM for the remainder of the season.

A bat of Cruz’s caliber will surely be in demand, but perhaps not to the extent one would imagine at first glance. As a pure designated hitter, he’ll face a more limited market than most trade candidates.

A National League club could technically acquire Cruz to DH during interleague play and serve as a vastly overqualified pinch-hitter, but it’s unlikely anyone is going to put Cruz in the outfield with any regularity. He hasn’t played an inning of defense since 2018 and has just 54 innings in the field since the conclusion of the 2016 campaign. It’s hard to ever fully rule something out as front offices get increasingly creative, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that if Cruz is moved, it’ll be to an American League club.

Of course, not all 14 American League clubs will be in play. None of the Rangers, Royals, Tigers or Orioles are in contention. The Angels aren’t going to displace Shohei Ohtani from the DH slot, nor will the Astros do so with Yordan Alvarez. The Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton serving as a primary DH. The Red Sox are enjoying the heck out of a resurgent J.D. Martinez campaign. The Indians have Franmil Reyes, and the Twins may not want to ship Cruz to a division rival anyhow.

On that note, it’s worth pointing out that there’s a decent fit with the AL Central-leading White Sox. Yermin Mercedes faded considerably after a torrid start to the season and was optioned to Triple-A this week. But the Sox have Eloy Jimenez on a rehab assignment, and he’s likely to see at least some time at DH as he eases back into the mix after surgery to repair a ruptured pectoral tendon. It’s also generally hard to imagine the Twins trading Cruz to the White Sox in order to help the South Siders seal up a division title for which Minnesota originally hoped to contend.

There are a few clubs that seem like the clearest fits if the Twins move Cruz. Here’s a look at what each of these teams has received from the DH spot in its lineup in 2021, followed by a more thorough look at the potential fit.

Athletics: .220/.289/.381, 88 wRC+
Rays: .226/.314/.411, 103 wRC+
Blue Jays: .240/.321/.429, 104 wRC+
Mariners: .237/.320/.421, 108 wRC+

Athletics: No contender in the American League could use a DH upgrade more than Oakland. Their offseason signing of Mitch Moreland has resulted in a .238/.286/.388 batting line through 175 plate appearances to date. As a team, the A’s rank 12th in MLB with 394 runs scored — 94 fewer runs than the MLB-leading Astros, whom Oakland happens to be chasing in the division.

The question with the A’s, as always, is one of payroll capacity. For most of this past offseason, it looked as though the A’s wouldn’t spend much of anything on the 2021 roster. Their late signings of Moreland, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit and Trevor Rosenthal boosted payroll up to $86MM — still well below the league average but not quite the threadbare levels seen in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Whether ownership would dish out another several million to rent Cruz for two-plus months remains to be seen, but even if the salary is deemed steep, the A’s could always pay a little more in terms of prospect capital in order to get Minnesota to cover some (or all) of the contract.

Rays: The financial element is perhaps even more notable with the Rays, who are currently operating on just a $62MM payroll. Tampa Bay also has a better in-house option than Oakland in the form of Austin Meadows. The 26-year-old Meadows can and has played some corner outfield this season, but the Rays have more defensively gifted options in Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena and Brett Phillips.

Meadows has been the club’s primary designated hitter this year, logging 53 percent of the the Rays’ total DH plate appearances. On the whole, Meadows has been a productive hitter with a .243/.335/.485 batting line, 16 home runs, 23 doubles and a triple. However, he’s been mired in a down stretch at the plate, batting .231/.300/.374 over the past month. Cruz is an upgrade even over Meadows at his absolute best, but the Rays’ “need” for Cruz feels less acute than that of the Athletics.

Blue Jays: Adding Cruz to a lineup that already features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Marcus Semien doesn’t really feel fair. Bringing Cruz into the fold would likely push Randal Grichuk back into a fourth outfielder role behind Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. Early in the year, it would’ve been difficult to justify taking at-bats from Grichuk. He got out to a blistering start, batting .289/.322/.497 through the first two months. Since the calendar flipped to June, however, Grichuk is hitting .220/.244/.423 with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate in 127 plate appearances.

The Jays’ priority to this point has been the bullpen, and that will likely continue to be a point of focus for general manager Ross Atkins. That said, it never hurts to further strengthen an already potent lineup. If the prospect price for Cruz is to the Jays’ liking, they’re one of the few AL clubs that is both contending and has an easy path to carve out regular at-bats for the Boomstick. Unlike the A’s and Rays, money shouldn’t be an issue for them.

Mariners: A Cruz reunion tour with an unexpected contender in Seattle would make for a fun story for the final months of the season. Seattle is far from a postseason lock, but the Mariners are four games over .500 and just three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. Much of the focus surrounding the Mariners has been on whether they’ll trade Mitch Haniger, but if they continue their hot streak — they’re 15-7 over their past 22 games — this is a club that could actually look to add some pieces.

The focus for Seattle would probably be on more controllable players who can help in 2022 and beyond. Starting pitching, in particular, will be the Mariners’ primary desire — as manager Scott Servais suggested this week. But if the Mariners can acquire Cruz without paying a price they feel will compromise a very promising long-term outlook, he’s a sensible upgrade. The move would be overwhelmingly popular with fans, and the Mariners have taken a potpourri approach at designated hitter this year anyhow. Ty France leads the team with an even 100 plate appearances as a DH, but he could be slotted into the lineup regularly at first base/second base for the balance of the 2021 campaign.

Looking For A Match In A Nolan Arenado Trade

By Steve Adams | November 20, 2020 at 10:58pm CDT

Nolan Arenado’s future in Colorado — or perhaps the lack thereof — will be one of the main storylines throughout the 2020-21 offseason. The 29-year-old has publicly voiced dissatisfaction with the organization in the past, and another poor season followed comments from owner Dick Monfort that foreshadow a tight-budgeted winter don’t figure to improve the relationship.

In this week’s Offseason Outlook for the Rockies, I laid out the reasons that trading Arenado isn’t as simple as some might think. On the surface, a five-time All-Star who has won eight Gold Gloves in eight MLB seasons while hitting .293/.349/.541 and averaging nearly five WAR per season seems like a player who’d be highly in demand. As with any player, however, Arenado’s trade value is inextricably linked to his contractual status, and the franchise-record extension he signed in 2019 muddies the water.

Arenado is still owed a hefty six years and $199MM between now and the 2026 season. He’s due $35MM in 2021, and his contract allows him to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM at season’s end. Any club that acquires Arenado recognizes there’s a chance he’ll only be around for one season. If Arenado plays at the level an acquiring team would hope for upon making the trade, that team knows there’s a chance he’ll opt out. The Covid-19 pandemic has obviously changed the financial outlook for many clubs and altered the sports economy, but Arenado would surely look at Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245MM contract and wonder whether he could approach that level with a big 2021 showing.

On the other hand, Arenado had his worst season ever at the plate in 2020 and finished the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness. That’s enough to already make some clubs wary, particularly because if that proves to be the start of a trend, they’d be stuck paying more than $33MM annually to a player on the decline. There’s no way Arenado opts out if he repeats this past season’s .253/.303/.454 output, so there’s inherent risk of being stuck with an albatross contract here.

A trade is further complicated by the fact that the Rockies would of course want to receive quality young talent in return. The optics of dumping Arenado simply to be rid of his salary would be extraordinarily poor for Monfort and general manager Jeff Bridich. Given the risk associated with the contract and Arenado’s shaky 2020 campaign, it’s frankly difficult to imagine a team taking on Arenado’s contract and parting with considerable prospect capital. The Rockies might have to pay down some of the deal and/or take another sizable salary on in return if they hope to find a palatable trade.

As if that context doesn’t complicate matters enough, also consider that Arenado has a full no-trade clause baked into the deal. He may welcome the the opportunity for a fresh start, but it’s possible he’ll need to be incentivized to waive that clause as well. Topping things off is that he’s not even the only All-Star third baseman who could be moved this winter. The Cubs figure to seriously entertain the possibility of trading Kris Bryant. A former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP, Bryant is coming off a down season of his own but has a similar ceiling with none of Arenado’s long-term risk. Bryant is in his final year of arbitration and is a free agent next winter. Only one team can get Bryant, of course, so interested teams that miss out could turn to Arenado. It’s also possible that some clubs prefer the Arenado gamble — long-term risk and all. Regardless, Bryant’s presence on the market plays a factor in any potential Arenado talks.

Suffice it to say, trading Arenado is a daunting task for the Rockies. Based on name value alone, one might think nearly every team would be inclined to look, but the majority of clubs around the game can be written off almost immediately. We can rule out low-spending clubs like the Indians, Pirates, Rays, Athletics and Marlins, as Arenado’s contract would be considered too extravagant for their budgets. The D-backs are still paying Zack Greinke to play for someone else and traded Paul Goldschmidt away rather than meeting his $130MM extension price — far less than the $199MM owed to Arenado.

The Brewers already gave a mega-deal to Christian Yelich and wouldn’t risk a second one. The Angels signed Rendon to the aforementioned $245MM deal last winter, and the Twins are very likely out after inking Josh Donaldson for $92MM. Cincinnati has Eugenio Suarez at third base and probably couldn’t stomach paying a combined $60MM to Arenado and Joey Votto anyhow, as phonetically pleasing as that pairing might otherwise be. The Astros have Alex Bregman at third base and could conceivably move him to another position, but that’s a reach with Carlos Correa locked in at shortstop. The Phillies look set at the corners with Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins.

We can also eliminate any clubs that are in the midst of a rebuild. The Rangers appear to be just starting down that road, and the Orioles aren’t far enough along in the process to consider a splash of this magnitude. The Tigers and Royals are hoping to soon emerge from rebuilding efforts, but this doesn’t seem likely for either unless it’s part of a sudden and unexpected all-in push. Elsewhere in the AL Central, the White Sox have a strong infield as is and would probably prefer to allocate resources to the rotation and/or right field. Maybe they could try Yoan Moncada in right, but Arenado is something of a square peg in a round hole for the South Siders.

Over in St. Louis, the Cardinals have been connected to a heavy-hitting third baseman for years, be it Arenado or Donaldson. It hasn’t come to pass yet, and while the need very arguably still exists after Matt Carpenter floundered through a tough 2020 season, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals adding a contract of this magnitude. This is the same team that just declined Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM option in the name of financial flexibility, and the same club that seems to be grappling with whether it can afford to re-sign franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. brazenly lamented the baseball industry’s lack of profitability earlier this spring and more recently offered a very reserved assessment of his club’s payroll outlook.

That’s a whole lot of teams that don’t seem likely to jump in on Arenado, so let’s turn to run through some clubs that might not be immediately ruled out.

Mets: Now backed by baseball’s richest owner and suddenly spared the $20.25MM they previously owed to Robinson Cano in 2021, the Mets are seemingly connected to every big fish on the free-agent and trade markets alike. Arenado would add an all-world defender to a club whose defense has been miserable for several years running. Incumbents J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil are solid options, but McNeil can play second with Cano suspended and Arenado should be a big upgrade over Davis. The Mets could conceivably even put Davis in a package to acquire Arenado, as he’d give the Rox a controllable, quality alternative with a nice bat.

Nationals: The loss of Rendon was clearly felt throughout the Nationals’ lineup in 2020, as Carter Kieboom wasn’t able to step up and fill the void. The Nats have Max Scherzer’s contract off the books after the 2021 season and could reallocate those long-term dollars to Arenado while entrusting Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin to front the rotation. Washington’s payroll ranks toward the top of the league on a yearly basis, and GM Mike Rizzo isn’t afraid to make high-priced splashes. Adding Arenado would block Kieboom at third base, perhaps pushing him to second base or making him expendable in a trade — be it this hypothetical deal or another swap.

Braves: The Braves don’t have a clear third baseman in light of Austin Riley’s struggles, making this a solid on-paper fit. However, this is the exact type of move general manager Alex Anthopoulos has avoided since coming to Atlanta. He eschewed a long-term commitment to Josh Donaldson despite considerable fan backlash and has yet to acquire any player on more than a three-year deal (Will Smith). The seven- and eight-year deals for Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. were pre-arbitration bargains — the polar opposite of paying top-of-the-market value for a superstar already approaching his 30th birthday. Additionally, the club will likely still need to set aside some money to extend Freddie Freeman. This will be a frequently suggested landing spot for Arenado, but contextually, it doesn’t feel as strong as it looks at first glance.

Blue Jays: General manager Ross Atkins has already talked about acquiring “elite” players this winter, as the Jays have watched a strong young core emerge at the MLB level. Incumbent third baseman Travis Shaw is an obvious non-tender candidate, and while the Jays have some appealing youngsters down on the farm, a healthy Arenado is better than the ceiling of virtually any third base prospect. The Blue Jays quietly have quite a bit of financial flexibility, and if they could try to send Randal Grichuk back to Colorado as one of the pieces to offset a portion of the weight of Arenado’s contract (and fill a need for the Rockies at the same time).

Dodgers: A team with pockets as deep as the Dodgers and a farm system to match is of course going to be mentioned in connection to any high-profile trade target. They’ve been linked to Arenado in the past, and this morning while I was finishing this very piece, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote about their continued interest. Adding Arenado would effectively displace free agent Justin Turner, who is revered in the L.A. clubhouse, but at least for the moment, there’s a vacancy at the hot corner at Dodger Stadium. Of course, the Dodgers just locked up Mookie Betts on his own mega-deal and may not be keen on issuing another. And it’s anyone’s guess whether the Rockies would actually consider trading one of the best players in franchise history to a division nemesis.

Giants: Speaking of division rivals — the Giants look to be coming out of their own rebuilding effort and have the money to take on Arenado’s contract. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Johnny Cueto will all be off the books after the 2021 season, leaving the long-term payroll outlook wide open. Veteran Evan Longoria is a roadblock at third base for the moment, but the Giants could send him back to Colorado as a means of both giving the Rockies a ready-made replacement and also offsetting some of the considerable cost they’d be taking on with Arenado’s contract. Younger talent would surely need to be added to make this appealing for the Rockies, of course. President of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has spoken of a focus on the pitching staff and only looking at “complementary” position players, but he’s also said he hopes to return to the playoffs as soon as 2021.

Padres: We might as well get a little weird and round out the division-rival trifecta with an off-the-wall Padres suggestion. The Friars already have Manny Machado and his $300MM contract at third base and young superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop. There were at least rumblings of potentially moving Tatis to the outfield in the event of a Francisco Lindor acquisition by the Padres, however. Adding Arenado would require an even more elaborate position shuffle, with Machado going back to shortstop and Tatis moving to the outfield grass. It’s a long shot that would likely require the Rockies taking a bad contract back — e.g. Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer — with the Padres chipping in some notable young talent. We’ve all learned by now not to count San Diego general manager A.J. Preller out of any scenario, but there’d be a whole lot of moving parts to get Arenado down to the Gaslamp Quarter.

Yankees: Like the Dodgers, the Yankees are almost an obligatory entrant in these types of exercises. They’re looking to pare back payroll this winter after spending at record levels in 2020, and their primary focus appears to be on retaining DJ LeMahieu. Arenado would be a luxury rather than a necessity — and a risky one at that — but the Yankees aren’t short on MLB-ready talent they could send back. Either of Gio Urshela or Miguel Andujar could appeal to the Rockies, and the team has some young pitching to work in as well. Arenado would be a tough fit with both Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton both on the books long-term, of course.

Cubs: It seems unlikely that the Cubs would take on a major contract after consecutive offseasons of effectively sitting out free agency. Owner Tom Ricketts has spent two years claiming not to have additional resources to allocate to the roster and earlier this summer proclaimed that ownership losses during the pandemic have been “biblical” in nature. The Cubs just laid off 100-some employees, per The Athletic. But they’re also expected to be active in reshaping the roster under new president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer, and they could jettison enough salary that cramming Arenado onto the books doesn’t seem impossible. Some combination of Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish and Willson Contreras could be moved this winter. Fitting Arenado into the picture still could be a stretch, though.

Red Sox: Boston already has Rafael Devers at the hot corner, but there’s been some speculation about him sliding across the diamond due to defensive struggles at third base. It’s admittedly tough to see the Red Sox taking on a contract like this less than one year after trading Mookie Betts and dumping David Price’s contract in order to limbo under the luxury tax line, but they’re a big-market team with huge payroll capabilities and probably don’t want to be a division afterthought for too long.

Mariners: Saving the most fun suggestion for last, let’s not overlook Jerry Dipoto’s ability to surprise the baseball world. “Trader Jerry” has rebuilt this organization’s farm system in a matter of two years and brought a number of interesting young players to Seattle — many of whom have now reached the Majors. Adding Arenado to an infield that already has two young Gold Glove winners in J.P. Crawford and Evan White would give the club a defense for the ages, and before anyone questions whether Seattle can afford to pay Arenado $33MM per year, consider that as of 2022, the only players on the books for the M’s are Marco Gonzales ($5.75MM) and White ($1.4MM). Bringing Arenado into the mix likely pushes Kyle Seager to designated hitter for the final year of his contract, which might be for the best given his declining defensive metrics.

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That’s a whole lot of words on trading Arenado, but it’s important to remember that a deal coming together shouldn’t be considered a given. Arenado is not a Francisco Lindor-esque guarantee to be traded prior to Opening Day due to the complexity of his contract and the difficulty the Rockies will have getting what they’d deem fair value in return. Any of the highlighted teams at the end of this exercise could emerge as a rumored trade partner, though some are obvious reaches. In my view, the best clubs for the Rockies to work with are the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Blue Jays and, yes, the Mariners. That’s not to say any of those clubs are in talks or are likely to acquire him, however.

Of course, any trade depends on the extent to which those clubs believe Arenado can rebound from a mediocre year at the plate and the extent to which they’re willing to gamble on the glaring downside that is inherently woven into his contract. Trading Arenado isn’t as simple as some will make it out to be this winter, but it’s a reality the Rockies will have to explore.

Looking For A Match In A Francisco Lindor Trade

By Connor Byrne | October 21, 2020 at 8:30pm CDT

The 2020 season ended in more disappointment for the Indians, who reached the playoffs but were once again unable to break a World Series drought that has gone back to their most recent title in 1948. The Indians may again try to contend next season, but it’s entirely possible they’ll do so without superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. Although the charismatic four-time All-Star won’t even turn 27 until next month, he’s only a year from a trip to free agency, and odds are that the low-budget Indians won’t be able to extend him. With Lindor due to earn anywhere from $17.5MM to $21.5MM in arbitration, it could make sense for the Indians to listen to trade offers before next season. If that happens, here’s a group of teams that might inquire…

Yankees

New York seems to have its long-term answer at shortstop in Gleyber Torres, but he had a so-so season, after which general manager Brian Cashman indicated he’s not a lock to remain at the position. With second baseman DJ LeMahieu set to reach free agency, the Yankees will have to address their middle infield in the coming months. What better way to replace LeMahieu than by acquiring Lindor? He’d grab short and allow the Yankees to move Torres back to the keystone, where he gained a large amount of experience from 2018-19.

Mets

This should be an aggressive offseason for the Mets, who figure to change owners from the Wilpons to Steve Cohen. If Cohen wants to make an immediate, headline-grabbing impact, there won’t be many better ways than by acquiring Lindor. The Mets aren’t necessarily set at short, where Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario were more OK than great in 2020.

Angels

Regardless of whether the Angels acquire Lindor, they’re probably going to add a new starting middle infielder this offseason. David Fletcher’s capable of playing shortstop, so they’re not necessarily a shoo-in to pick up someone there. However, with Andrelton Simmons set to hit free agency, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a high-profile replacement and keep Fletcher at second. The Angels, having missed the playoffs six years in a row, could decide to go big on Lindor. He’d look good in a lineup with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.

Braves

The Braves received solid production from shortstop Dansby Swanson in 2020, but after failing to take home a championship once again, would they consider a sizable splash in their infield? It seems possible, especially considering their uncertainty at third base. In the event of a Lindor acquisition, the Braves could either move Swanson to the hot corner or make Swanson part of the (a) trade.

Phillies

Shortstop wasn’t an issue in 2020 for the Phillies, who benefited after signing Didi Gregorius to a $14MM contract. The problem for Philly is that it may lose Gregorius in free agency, leaving the position as a question mark heading into the offseason. Lindor would make for a more-than-adequate Gregorius replacement if the latter leaves.

Dodgers

Flaws are typically hard to find on the Dodgers’ roster, but considering their deep farm system and their penchant for pursuing stars in trades (Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, to name a couple in recent years), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them involved in the Lindor sweepstakes. The Dodgers are fine with moving players all over the diamond, so even though there’s no clear “fit” for Lindor in LA – which boasts Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux among its returning middle infielders – the club could probably make it work.

Blue Jays

Toronto already has an-up-coming shortstop in Bo Bichette, but perhaps the club would be willing to shift its infield around to accommodate Lindor after a playoff season. Bichette could move to second or third, giving the Jays an infield consisting of him, Lindor, Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. On paper, that may be among the scariest IF units in the game.

Reds

A Lindor pursuit could be out of the question for the Reds, but they do need immediate aid at shortstop. Picking up Lindor would give the team a better chance to contend in 2020, and it would hand Cincinnati an opportunity to send Jose Garcia back to the minors for further seasoning.

Athletics

The A’s may not have the financial clout to pull this off, but all bets could be off if it’s just for a year. Either way, the A’s, who are coming off a division-winning season, will have to figure out their middle infield before next season. Starting shortstop Marcus Semien is slated for free agency, leaving the A’s without a solution there for the time being.

Twins

Considering Cleveland and Minnesota are in the same division, it seems unlikely they’ll match up on a Lindor trade. Still, if the Twins make a compelling offer, the Indians would have to listen. Adding Lindor would allow the Twins to move current starting shortstop Jorge Polanco into a utility role, though that’s assuming he wouldn’t be involved in a possible deal.

Cubs

The Cubs already have a shortstop in Javier Baez, but he had a shockingly rough 2020 and does have extensive experience at second base. Maybe president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who’s seeking to change around the Cubs’ offense, would acquire Lindor and move Baez to the keystone in hopes of giving the club a jolt. Chicago does have a notable young middle infielder in Nico Hoerner, but he hasn’t hit since debuting in 2019.

Looking For A Match In A Mookie Betts Trade

By Mark Polishuk | October 6, 2019 at 9:49am CDT

First of all, there’s more than a decent chance that Mookie Betts will still be a member of the 2020 Red Sox. As per Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy, the team’s intention to get payroll under the $208MM luxury tax threshold is a “goal but not a mandate,” so it isn’t as if the Red Sox are going into any sort of fire sale mode. While it seems the club will trim some salaries, they could achieve a lot of those savings in other areas (i.e. other trades or non-tenders, or J.D. Martinez could opt out of his contract) before fully exploring the idea of trading the 2018 American League MVP.

This being said, it wouldn’t be much fun if this post was titled “Looking To Pour Cold Water On A Fascinating Trade Possibility.” And, with Betts still firm in his intent to test the free agent market after the 2020 season, there’s certainly a chance he will be wearing another uniform anyway on Opening Day 2021. For a Red Sox organization that is looking for a creative way to shed salary and reload its minor league system, trading Betts before his final year of team control is an option that should at least be on the table, if certainly not one to be taken lightly.

Betts earned $10.5MM in 2018 after defeating the Red Sox in an arbitration case, and his epic MVP campaign saw his salary rise to $20MM in 2019. After hitting .295/.391/.524 with 29 homers over 706 plate appearances last season, Betts is in line for another big raise in third and final trip through the arb process. Matt Swartz will be publishing MLBTR’s official arbitration projections within a few weeks, though he has informed me that Betts is currently projected to earn $27.7 or $27.8MM for the 2020 season (depending on whether Betts’ base 2019 salary is increased by a bonus should he win a Gold Glove).

That number certainly looms large in any discussion of a Betts trade, given that several teams may balk at committing that much money to a single player (even a superstar like Betts) if they have luxury tax concerns of their own. Plus, a team trading for Betts would have to be expecting to have him for one season at the most. Betts has been so adamant in exploring free agency that it’s very unlikely that he pulls a Paul Goldschmidt and signs an extension with a new team rather than finally get a crack at the open market.

With only one year of Betts on offer, the Red Sox know that trading the outfielder won’t solve all their problems. There’s no chance, for instance, of another payroll-clearing blockbuster like Boston’s legendary August 2012 trade with the Dodgers, since Betts lacks the long-term appeal that Adrian Gonzalez (the Dodgers’ primary target) held for Los Angeles.

Teams also aren’t going to clear out their farm systems for just one year of Betts, though Boston can reasonably assume to top what the Diamondbacks received from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt last December. Betts is over five years younger than Goldschmidt and a more valuable defensive player, so the Red Sox will definitely aim for more than the already-impressive package the D’Backs received — a controllable young starter (Luke Weaver), a controllable young everyday catcher (Carson Kelly), a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft, and another prospect in infielder Andy Young, currently ranked by MLB.com as the 23rd-best Diamondbacks minor leaguer. That said, Goldschmidt was also only making $14.5MM in salary in 2019, whereas Betts’ 2020 salary could be almost double that number.

Let’s go through the other 29 teams to see if we can find a fit as a Betts suitor…

No Chance

The Marlins, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Mariners are all rebuilding. And the Red Sox would never trade Betts to the arch-rival Yankees, as amusing as it would be to see New York somehow land another Boston superstar almost exactly 100 years after the Babe Ruth deal.

Probably Not

The Rockies don’t have much salary wiggle room to add an expensive player like Betts. Likewise, payroll restraints will likely keep the Pirates and Diamondbacks out of the mix, though Arizona GM Mike Hazen knows Betts well from their time together in Boston. The Brewers also likely face similar financial restraints, plus they don’t have much elite young talent to grab Boston’s interest. The Rangers are another team without much in the way of blue-chip minor league talent, and while Texas is planning to spend more as the team moves into its new ballpark next season, longer-term acquisitions would seem to make more sense for the Rangers than a win-now move like acquiring Betts. Likewise, the Giants are more apt to pursue a long-term option if they go after any premium players at all (i.e. their interest in Bryce Harper last winter).

I put the Cubs a tick above the other “probably not” teams because they’re under increasing pressure to win in 2020, and could potentially be open to some type of creative swap that could see Chicago and Boston shift around several of their undesirable contracts, in addition to sending Betts to Wrigleyville. But there would seemingly be a lot of moving parts in such a deal, and the Cubs have their own set of luxury tax concerns. Plus, while the Sox and Cubs have made a few minor trades since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs’ baseball operations department, one wonder if Red Sox management could be hesitant about sending a star player Epstein’s way.

Probably Not, AL Contenders Edition

The Red Sox wouldn’t have quite the same reservations about sending Betts to another AL rival as they would about putting him into the Yankee pinstripes, but moving him within the AL East to the Rays seems unrealistic. The Sox probably also wouldn’t be too keen to further strengthen the Astros’ juggernaut lineup, though Houston is already facing something of a luxury tax crunch with its own crop of star players. The Indians have taken steps to cut back spending over the last year and can quite likely be ruled out of a Betts pursuit, as much as Cleveland is still trying to keep its contention window open for as long as possible.

While neither the Twins or Athletics are big spenders, it’s possible either team could see a Betts trade as a unique opportunity that merits a one-year payroll spike. Trading for Betts could be seen as a souped-up version of Minnesota’s strategy from the 2018-19 offseason, which making short-term acquisitions in lieu of major financial commitments. Acquiring Betts would cost more than just money, of course, and it remains to be seen if the Twins or A’s would be open to giving up the minor leaguers necessary to pry him away from the Red Sox.

Makes Some Sense

I put both the Nationals and Cardinals leaning closer to the “probably not” category, though trading for Betts would be an eye-popping way for either team to reload if Anthony Rendon or Marcell Ozuna was lost in free agency. Trading for Betts could be seen as a one-year stopgap for teams that are strongly trying to contend in 2020, and the Nats or Cards could then let him walk in free agency and pursue a longer-term star in the 2020-21 offseason (a pursuit that would likely include an attempt to re-sign Betts). It’s rather doubtful that Washington would be eager to deal from a relatively thin farm system, however, while St. Louis may have used up most of its expendable but MLB-ready pieces in the Goldschmidt trade.

The White Sox flirted with the idea of adding a superstar to the ranks with their pursuit of Harper and Manny Machado last offseason, and while Betts would be a much shorter-term addition, it would certainly announce the end of Chicago’s rebuild in a major fashion. If you’re wondering why the Pale Hose would look to add Betts for 2020 when they’re far more than just one player away from contention, the club has explored such a tactic in the past — the White Sox made an offer to the Orioles about acquiring Manny Machado in the 2017-18 offseason, when Machado was also a year away from free agency.

As incredible as it would be to see Betts and Mike Trout in the same outfield, the Angels probably aren’t willing to move top prospects for one year of Betts, especially given how GM Billy Eppler has worked hard to reload a once-barren farm system. Still, the firing of manager Brad Ausmus hints at an increasing impatience within Angels ownership, and Eppler is also entering the last year of his contract, so I can’t entirely rule the Halos out as a potential dark horse.

The Braves and Dodgers each have the prospect depth to get Boston’s attention, though neither team is likely to swap much of its top talent for just one year of Betts since neither is exactly in outright “win-now” mode. It could be argued that Los Angeles could be a bit closer to this category if the Dodgers fall short of another World Series, though the Dodgers have tended to save their biggest trades for the July 31 deadline (when they have a firmer idea of their needs) rather than the offseason.

The Win-Now Teams

Since Betts is only signed through 2020, his most logical trade matches are the teams who definitely want to contend next season, and could be most open to a bold deal to make a postseason berth happen.

As much as Phillies GM Matt Klentak has insisted that he is looking to build a sustainable contender, he’ll be expected to more immediately start bearing the fruits of the Phils’ rebuild process and the team’s splashy 2018-19 offseason. Philadelphia’s 81-81 record has led to rumblings that manager Gabe Kapler could replaced, and another down year could also put Klentak’s own job security in question, though the general manager is signed through 2022. The Phillies made big trades for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura last winter, though whether they have enough young talent left (or at least enough they’re willing to part with) to acquire Betts remains to be seen. Also, as much as Betts would upgrade the Phils’ middling offensive production, pitching would seem to be Philadelphia’s much more pressing need.

Perhaps no GM is under as much of a microscope as Padres general manager A.J. Preller, as executive chairman Ron Fowler is on record as saying that “heads will roll” in the organization if San Diego faces another “embarrassing” season. Assuming that the Red Sox would be okay with making another big trade with the Padres in the wake of the controversial Drew Pomeranz swap in 2016, a Betts trade would be the kind of major transaction the Padres seemed to be on the verge of making all last offseason, but never completed despite talks about numerous star players with multiple teams. Even if the Padres are more than one player away, the club’s highly-regarded minor league pipeline has so much depth that they could afford to spare a few pieces for Betts and still boast a top-five system. Would a Betts trade be the wisest long-term move? Not really, but after nine straight losing seasons, some type of step towards competitive baseball is definitely needed.

The Reds are a club in more pressing need of lineup help, and since president of baseball operations Dick Williams has set the playoffs as a firm goal for 2020, Betts could very well be a target. Betts’ salary wouldn’t be as big an issue as it would seem for a smaller-market team since the Reds are also planning to spend more. Though Williams has also hinted that the Reds are more apt to explore free agency rather than trades, these plans for an aggressive winter make Cincinnati seem like a solid bet to at least discuss a trade with the Red Sox.

The Mets further thinned out an already shallow farm system in their July trade for Marcus Stroman, and Betts’ salary could prove problematic for a team that has never been too eager to spend despite operating in the New York market. That said, the Mets are firmly planning to contend next year, and GM Brodie Van Wagenen has already shown a penchant for headline-making trades in his first season on the job. Betts would be such a clear and obvious solution to the Mets’ longstanding center field problem that, while it’s not exactly a “one player away” scenario for a team with so many bullpen questions, putting Betts alongside the likes of Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and J.D. Davis makes for an awfully scary lineup.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Looking For A Match In A Clint Frazier Trade

By Connor Byrne | June 21, 2019 at 10:48pm CDT

In July 2016, when the Yankees were on the periphery of the American League playoff race, they made the bold decision to trade superstar reliever Andrew Miller to the Indians for four players. Outfielder Clint Frazier and left-hander Justus Sheffield, two top 100 prospects, headlined an impressive-looking haul for the Yankees. The Yankees’ hope then was that Frazier and Sheffield would eventually turn into indispensable pieces of their 25-man roster, but three years later, we now know it may not happen. Sheffield’s already out of the organization, which flipped him to the Mariners last winter in a package for two years of control over front-line starter James Paxton. Frazier remains, though his place with the franchise could be on shaky ground.

Frazier, who Yankees general manager Brian Cashman once said possesses “legendary bat speed,” has already racked up his most significant major league playing time this season. Returning from a concussion-marred 2018, the 24-year-old has slashed a solid .283/.330/.513 (118 wRC+) with 11 home runs and a .230 ISO in 2019 plate appearances. Although that’s starting-caliber offensive production on your typical team, a healthy Yankees lineup is anything but ordinary.

The acquisition of designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Mariners last weekend helped push Frazier out of New York, which subsequently sent him back to Triple-A Scranton. With Encarnacion and Luke Voit at DH/first and Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Cameron Maybin in the outfield, the team had little choice but to take advantage of its ability to option Frazier. Even with Maybin now going to the injured list, the Yankees may not recall Frazier because he’d mostly ride the bench.

Frazier was understandably displeased with the Yankees when they demoted him, though it seems they still hold him in high regard. Owner Hal Steinbrenner voiced his support for Frazier this week, saying he’s going to be “a big part of this team going forward.” Nevertheless, Steinbrenner’s words won’t quell the trade rumblings hovering around Frazier as the July 31 deadline nears. The Yankees don’t have to trade Frazier, who’s not on track to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2023 campaign, but they may not be able to find consistent playing time for him next year either. While Gardner and Maybin could be gone by then, most or all of Encarnacion (if his $20MM club option is exercised), Voit, Judge, Stanton and Hicks will return in prominent roles.

With little space for Frazier in the near term, the Yankees’ best bet may be to flip him for help this year in an effort to boost a World Series-contending roster. Adding up Frazier’s youth, production in the minors and majors, and controllable status, he’d be a valuable commodity on the trade market. New York’s known to be hunting for a middle- or front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher – something it may be able to acquire by dangling Frazier in talks with other clubs. The Yankees don’t boast a high-end farm system, which would make it all the more logical for them to use Frazier as trade currency this summer.

If the Yankees are going to trade Frazier in the next month-plus, it reportedly won’t be for someone who’s due to become a free agent. Should we take that at face value, it would rule out a deal involving Frazier and Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner – this year’s most hyped rental starter. Regardless, Bumgarner would have to waive his partial no-trade clause for the Yankees.

The Giants’ outfield is abysmal, which would seem to make Frazier a fit, though it’s still unclear whether they’d choose him over another team’s offer that could be fronted by a top 100 prospect(s). After all, the vast outfield at Oracle Park in San Francisco is no place for a weak defender. Frazier has been that to this point. Factoring in his nationally televised misadventures in right field against the Red Sox on June 3, Frazier has posted minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 319 innings as an outfielder this season. Those struggles aren’t anything new for Frazier, who’s at minus-12 DRS with minus-8.4 UZR during his 686-inning big league career as an outfielder.

Bumgarner’s the most proven starter among likely trade chips, but he’s not the most valuable. That honor belongs to Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd, who’s enjoying a breakout season, makes a paltry 2019 salary ($2.6MM) and isn’t set for free agency until after 2022. For all of those reasons, Frazier won’t be enough to headline a package for Boyd, who should be able to net the Tigers a bounty headed by premium prospects. Besides, considering the Tigers don’t want to continue their relationship with defensively limited, offensively gifted corner outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, it’s fair to wonder how much they’d value a similar player in Frazier.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s AL Central rental rival in Cleveland may have its own coveted trade chip in righty Trevor Bauer. The Indians are very much in the wild-card race, yet there has still been ample speculation about a Bauer trade. He’s on a $13MM salary right now and controllable through 2020. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote Thursday that a potential Yankees acquisition of Bauer “would probably be centered around” Frazier. There’s logic behind that – the Indians are already familiar with Frazier, who’d be able to help their woeful offense on a cheap salary right away. However, Frazier alone wouldn’t be able to pry Bauer and his year and a half of remaining control out of Cleveland.

It seems the Yankees would stand a better chance of using Frazier to net Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, who, like Bauer, is under control through 2020. Stroman doesn’t have Bauer’s upside, but he’s enjoying a fine bounce-back season at an opportune time for rebuilding Toronto. The fact that Stroman’s earning a reasonable $7.4MM will only help the Blue Jays’ cause when they inevitably move him. Stroman would bring back promising prospects in a trade, but if the Jays want a more established player, Frazier’s bat would fit in an outfield whose only productive full-timer has been Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Although New York and Toronto play in the same division, that wouldn’t serve as a deterrent to a trade. These teams are just a year removed from a deadline deal which saw the Yankees acquire starter J.A. Happ for infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury and outfielder Billy McKinney.

Because we’re discussing high-end starters who’ve come up in trade rumors, we would be remiss not to mention Nationals super-ace Max Scherzer and Diamondbacks No. 1 man Zack Greinke. John Harper of SNY.tv reported Friday the Yankees would love to acquire the still-dominant Scherzer (who wouldn’t?), though it seems like much more of a pipe dream than a realistic hope on their part. For what it’s worth, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo shot down the idea of dealing the soon-to-be 35-year-old Scherzer last weekend. Even if Rizzo were to reverse course, Frazier wouldn’t come close to leading a package for Scherzer.

Frazier would have a better chance to help the Yankees land Greinke, but there are obvious roadblocks standing in the way of that. For one, thanks in part to the 35-year-old Greinke’s terrific production, the Diamondbacks are hanging in the NL playoff race. Still, if the team attempts to trade Greinke, his contract and 15-team NTC would complicate matters. Greinke, signed through 2021, is still owed upward of $90MM (including deferrals). He’ll also count $34MM-plus per season against the luxury tax until his contract runs out. If the D-backs were to assume a large portion of Greinke’s remaining deal, maybe they and the Yankees could work something out. Greinke would still have to sign off on a trade to the Bronx after that. All things considered, a swap around Frazier and Greinke looks like a long shot, to say the least.

More starters than the above figure to be available around the deadline, but ideal matches look hard to find from the Yankees’ perspective. For instance, Texas lefty Mike Minor would give the Yankees what they want – an effective starter who’s not a rental – though he probably won’t wind up on the move with the Rangers in playoff contention. The same may apply to one of Greinke’s D-backs rotation mates, Robbie Ray.

On paper, Frazier looks like a strong candidate to join a new organization by the end of July. However, in trading Frazier, the Yankees would likely need to acquire someone who would provide a noticeable boost to their World Series chances. We’ll find out soon whether they’ll be able to pull off that difficult feat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Marcus Stroman Trade

By Connor Byrne | June 6, 2019 at 7:14pm CDT

Even with Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner factored in, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman may end up as the most valuable starter on the move before the July 31 trade deadline. Like Bumgarner, Stroman has established himself as a legitimate major league starter. But while Bumgarner’s set to become a free agent after the season, the 28-year-old Stroman’s under wraps through 2020. Furthermore, on a $6.3MM salary this season and a to-be-determined arbitration salary next year, Stroman doesn’t come at a prohibitive price tag.

Since he debuted in 2014 with the Jays, who selected him 22nd overall in the 2012 draft, Stroman has pitched to a 3.80 ERA/3.61 FIP with 7.23 K/9 and 2.57 BB/9 in 127 appearances (121 starts) and 741 innings. Those numbers aren’t going to blow anyone away, but Stroman’s a two-time 200-inning pitcher whose groundball percentage (59.8) ranks second among starters over the course of his career. And Stroman’s now amid a season in which he has recorded a terrific 2.84 ERA/3.48 FIP with 6.99 K/9, 3.08 BB/9 and a 58.1 percent grounder mark across 13 starts and 76 frames.

The fact that Stroman’s on pace for another 200-inning season is key considering he amassed a mere 102 1/3 during an injury-shortened 2018. Stroman’s also just a few years removed from missing nearly all of 2015 with a torn ACL in his left knee, but the good news is that he hasn’t battled any significant arm problems in his time in the bigs.

With Toronto near the bottom of the league right now and unlikely to contend in 2020, Stroman stands out as its most logical trade chip. Stroman’s time up north may conclude this summer as a result. With that being the case, we’ll take a look at a slew of potential suitors (listed alphabetically). Based on the latest farm system rankings from Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs, some of these teams are in better position than others to win a possible Stroman sweepstakes…

Angels: The 2020 Angels should get back injured starter Shohei Ohtani, who’d be a massive upgrade over what they have now, but they can’t count on him to eat up a lot of innings in his return from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney haven’t been the most durable starters either, and Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez and Jaime Barria are largely unproven in the majors. Based on all of that, Stroman would fit in the Angels’ starting staff next year. He’d also aid in their push for a playoff spot this season.
Athletics: Injuries have sapped the Athletics of starters dating back to last year, but they still made the playoffs in 2018 and are within striking distance of wild-card position at the moment. The A’s are scheduled to get some rotation reinforcements back in the coming months, which could dampen interest in Stroman, though he’d likely better their postseason chances this year while taking care of one-fifth of their starting staff for 2020. By then, free agents-to-be Brett Anderson and Marco Estrada could be out of the organization.
Astros: Despite its resounding success in the standings, Houston hasn’t been able to find a capable fifth starter to slot in with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Brad Peacock this year. Looking forward to 2020, Cole, Miley and Collin McHugh could leave in free agency. Lance McCullers Jr. should be back from 2018 Tommy John surgery by then, but there would still be a place for Stroman.
Braves: The good news is that the Braves aren’t at risk of losing any starters in free agency during the winter. The bad news is that their current starting mix hasn’t been all that effective outside of Mike Soroka. Even Max Fried, who burst out of the gates this year, has come to Earth of late. It’s no wonder they’re going after free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel. Signing him may make a Stroman trade unnecessary in the estimation of Atlanta’s front office.
Brewers: Even though their rotation has been less than stellar this year, the reigning NL Central champion Brewers have a realistic shot to win their division again. Stroman would help Milwaukee’s cause for this season, and he’d take care of a rotation spot for the small-market club in 2020.
Cardinals: The Redbirds’ rotation has been a disappointment this year, which explains their interest in Keuchel. Let’s say the Cards do land Keuchel on a multiyear contract. Their rotation still wouldn’t be set for this year or next season. No one from their starting quintet has been particularly good this season, and Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha are each set to become free agents.
Cubs: Chicago wouldn’t be in the driver’s seat to acquire Stroman this summer because there’s no clear opening in its rotation right now. Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish are either locks or strong bets to retain their spots. But the Cubs may need to replace Hamels, an impending by free agent, by 2020. Stroman would offer comparable production for a much lower price. That’s important for the luxury tax-minded Cubs.
Diamondbacks: Considering they probably won’t make the playoffs, it’s up in the air whether the Diamondbacks will buy this summer; if they do, though, a Stroman acquisition would make sense going into next year. He’d occupy a place in an impressive-looking 2020 staff with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray and, if they return to health, Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker. Otherwise, Merrill Kelly could continue in place of Weaver or Walker.
Dodgers: Considering the Dodgers are oozing with quality starters, don’t count on a Stroman acquisition. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill could leave as free agents thereafter, though, so let’s not fully rule out LA.
Mets: Team management has stuck by much-maligned fifth starter Jason Vargas, who has been outstanding of late, so it may not feel the need to part with prospects for Stroman or any other rotation piece. Starting depth is lacking in New York right now, however, and both Vargas and Zack Wheeler might be gone by next season.
Nationals: Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin are guaranteed to return in 2019, which locks in an elite one-two punch. And Stephen Strasburg will probably be back, though there’s a chance he’ll opt out of his contract. Even if Strasburg sticks around, there would be room for Stroman now and next season to slot in ahead of Anibal Sanchez at the back of the Nats’ rotation.
Phillies: If the Phillies are going to maintain their lead in the NL East this season, they’ll likely need more from their starting staff. Aaron Nola hasn’t followed up on his exemplary 2018 performance, Jake Arrieta’s not what he used to be, and nobody from the Zach Eflin–Nick Pivetta–Jerad Eickhoff trio inspires a ton of confidence.
Pirates: The Buccos have been active in the trade market for starters in recent years, evidenced by their Cole deal with the Astros and their acquisition of Chris Archer from the Rays. The low-budget team was able to swing a trade for Archer because of his affordability. Stroman would give the Pirates another reasonably priced option next year along with Archer, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams and perhaps Mitch Keller. However, whether it would be logical for a middling Pittsburgh team to rob from its farm system for just over a year of control over Stroman is highly debatable.
Rangers: As noted on Wednesday, the wild-card contending Rangers are getting by with a relatively untrustworthy rotation this season. Even if Texas isn’t a real contender at the moment, it’ll aim for a playoff berth in 2020. Stroman would contribute to its cause.
Rays: No one would accuse opener-loving Tampa Bay of having enough traditional starters, and even the low-budget Rays would likely be able to afford Stroman. If everyone’s healthy, a rotation led by Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton and Stroman could be a force.
Reds: Although Cincinnati can probably forget about a playoff spot for this year, Stroman would help replace impending free agents Tanner Roark and Alex Wood (who hasn’t even pitched this season) in 2020. That said, Stroman to Cincy seems like a long shot because playoff-caliber teams need him more right now and would likely outbid the Reds.
Red Sox: Boston’s rotation hasn’t been great in 2019, nor is its starting five etched in stone for next year. Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez will return, but Rick Porcello’s slated to reach free agency.
Rockies: Colorado’s rotation has taken enormous steps backward since 2018, thanks in part to former Cy Young contender’s Kyle Freeland’s fall from grace. Even if the Rox expect the demoted Freeland to rebound by next year, there would still be a place for Stroman in their rotation. As of now, German Marquez and Jon Gray look like the only sure bets for 2020.
Padres: Not only has San Diego been connected to Stroman on the rumor mill dating back to the winter, but its rotation certainly hasn’t been flawless since then. Considering those factors, the Padres may be the favorites to acquire Stroman.
Twins: Minnesota has sprinted to one of the league’s best records this year thanks in part to righties Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson, but they’re headed toward free agency in the offseason. Stroman would replace one of them in 2020; in the meantime, he’d give the Twins another legit starter alongside Odorizzi, Gibson, Jose Berrios and Martin Perez. Michael Pineda hasn’t really answered the bell in his return from Tommy John surgery, and he’s yet another Twins starter who’s not under control beyond this season.
White Sox: At 29-32, Chicago has been a surprisingly respectable team relative to expectations. The franchise’s long-running playoff drought’s still likely to continue, though it may push for contention next year. Enter Stroman? He’d offer a nice complement to Lucas Giolito, which has been sorely lacking this season. Free agent-to-be Ivan Nova may not return in 2020, while Reynaldo Lopez has failed to build on a promising 2018. Other than that, the White Sox are waiting for Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech to recover from Tommy John surgery and for high-end prospect Dylan Cease to work his way to the majors.
Yankees: New York could use an upgrade in its rotation now, which Stroman might be able to provide, and its starting five may not be set for next year. Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and Domingo German are on track to return. On paper, that’s enough, but it would require general manager Brian Cashman to regard Happ and German as locks for 2020. Meanwhile, the retiring CC Sabathia won’t be back.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Madison Bumgarner Trade

By Connor Byrne | June 3, 2019 at 7:42pm CDT

It’s safe to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner will be one of the hottest commodities available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Bumgarner – set to turn 30 the day after the deadline (Aug. 1) – is among the game’s most accomplished hurlers in both the regular season and the playoffs, and he’s not under contract past this season. Thanks to the latter point, the out-of-contention Giants may elect to part with Bumgarner, who has been with the organization since it chose him 10th overall in the 2007 draft.

Going back to his 2010 debut in the majors, Bumgarner owns a sterling 3.07 ERA/3.26 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 43.8 percent groundball rate in 1,712 1/3 innings. Bumgarner has added 102 /3 innings of 2.11 ERA playoff pitching to his resume, making him one of the game’s go-to hurler’s in key situations. He hasn’t pitched in the postseason since 2016, though, and hasn’t resembled the durable ace he once did earlier in his career.

Bumgarner amassed at least 200 innings of high-quality run prevention from 2011-16, but a dirt bike crash limited him to 111 frames in 2017, and a fractured pinky held him to 129 2/3 innings last season. All told, since Bumgarner’s six-year run of excellence came to an end, he has recorded a 3.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with 8.12 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 40.8 percent grounder mark over 314 2/3 innings.

As shown by his output over the past few seasons, Bumgarner has remained a solid starter even as the Giants have fallen out of contention. Bumgarner’s not the ace-caliber option he once was, though, and with a few months’ control left (on a $12MM salary), San Francisco’s not in position to demand a king’s ransom for MadBum if it deals him in the next two months. The Giants don’t seem like a team that’s close to returning to glory, however, and they own of baseball’s worst farm systems. With that in mind, trading Bumgarner to bolster the franchise’s collection of young talent before the end of July could be a logical move for the organization.

If the Giants take the plunge and attempt to part with Bumgarner, there are several potential fits for the franchise icon. That said, one possible suitor may exit the mix by signing free-agent southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who could ink a contract any second from now, and Bumgarner’s eight-team no-trade clause means he’ll have a certain amount of say in where he goes next. Those factor’s won’t kill interest in Bumgarner, however, as shown below (in alphabetical order)….

Angels: The Halos have gotten little from their rotation this season, but the Mike Trout-led club is still just 2 1/2 games out of wild-card position. That doesn’t mean the Angels will be in the Bumgarner sweepstakes, but if they really want to push for a playoff spot, they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. Free-agent signings Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill simply haven’t worked out to this point, leaving the Angels with a need for an established veteran in their starting five.
Astros: Keuchel, Charlie Morton and the injured Lance McCullers Jr. have all left Houston’s rotation since last season, leaving Wade Miley, Brad Peacock and Corbin Martin to pick up the pieces behind Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. That’s not a bad group by any means, but Verlander and Cole act as the rising tide that lifts all boats. Bumgarner would look pretty nice behind them, though his limited no-trade clause gives him the right to nix a Giants-Astros deal.
Braves: Atlanta’s one of the teams Bumgarner could block a trade to, but as a childhood Braves fan who grew up in the South (North Carolina), it’s tough to see him blocking a deal to Georgia. The need’s obvious for the Braves, whose rotation has lacked answers behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Julio Teheran this season.
Brewers: Milwaukee’s rotation took a couple hits over the weekend in the form of injuries to Gio Gonzalez and Jhoulys Chacin, the latter of whom has trudged through a terrible season. Only Gonzalez, Brandon Woodruff, Zach Davies and Chase Anderson have given the Brewers’ rotation passable production this season, which leaves room for Bumgarner. However, they’re on Bumgarner’s no-trade list.
Cardinals: There hasn’t been a lot to like in St. Louis’ shaky rotation this year, which could lead to a Bumgarner acquisition. The Redbirds are on his no-trade list, though.
Mets: Whether the disappointing Mets would make an aggressive move to repair their rotation is in question, but the need exists. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz could use a better complement than Jason Vargas.
Padres: San Diego has been on the hunt for a front-line starter since the winter, and Bumgarner could fit the bill if the team’s bullish enough on him. The Padres, as an NL West rival, are certainly familiar enough with Bumgarner. He’d clearly strengthen a group which hasn’t received much from anyone but Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Matt Strahm or Eric Lauer. It’s worth noting the Padres are monitoring the workloads of Paddack and Strahm, which could limit their impact as the season progresses.
Phillies: This has been a rather underwhelming season for Philadelphia’s rotation, including potential ace Aaron Nola. There’s obviously space for Bumgarner, though he’d have to approve a trade to the Phillies.
Rangers: This is a long shot, but the Rangers are unexpectedly in wild-card contention and would benefit from Bumgarner. He’d join a team whose rotation has gotten little aside from Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Ariel Jurado (over a mere three starts in Jurado’s case).
Rays: The opener method has worked well for Tampa Bay, but the club has turned to that strategy largely because it’s lacking an adequate supply of credible starters. Bumgarner would give the Rays another legitimate traditional starter alongside Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Morton, assuming Glasnow returns this summer from a forearm strain.
Red Sox: The reigning world champs are on Bumgarner’s no-trade list, but there’s a need for a rotation stabilizer in Beantown. Chris Sale hasn’t been his usual ace-like self, Nathan Eovaldi has been injured, and Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez have only offered back-end production to this point. The luxury tax is a concern for the Red Sox, though – they’re at upward of $251MM in that regard, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and will pay a 75 percent tax for every dollar spent over the $246MM mark while losing 10 spots in the 2020 draft.
Rockies: Colorado’s rotation was a strength last year, but that hasn’t been the case this season despite the best efforts of German Marquez and Jon Gray. The club just demoted 2018 Cy Young contender Kyle Freeland to the minors. He, like Bumgarner, is a lefty.
Twins: Judging by their interest in Keuchel, we know the first-place Twins aren’t content with their rotation. Bumgarner would fit in nicely in a quintet that hasn’t received much production after Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez.
Yankees: New York’s yet another contender on Bumgarner’s no-trade list. That aside, the Yankees should be on the lookout for another starter. Ace Luis Severino hasn’t pitched at all this season on account of a lat strain, while No. 2 starter James Paxton has never been the most durable option. Meanwhile, 2019 standout Domingo German hasn’t exceeded 100 innings in a season since 2014 – when he was a Single-A pitcher – and the soon-to-be 39-year-old CC Sabathia’s hardly an endless source of innings in the twilight of his career.

Of the 14 teams listed above, some are better positioned to land Bumgarner than others, as shown in the most recent farm system rankings of Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. Judging by the amount of potential suitors for Bumgarner, though, the Giants should get a respectable package for the franchise icon if they move him. Two end-of-July deadlines ago, the Rangers sent righty Yu Darvish to the Dodgers for three players, including then-top 100 prospect Willie Calhoun. The Rangers followed that up by moving lefty Cole Hamels to the Cubs last year for three players, though no one from the trio was a premium prospect at the time. While Bumgarner won’t bring back an enormous return this summer, he ought to warrant something along the lines of what Darvish landed the Rangers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Looking For A Match In A Jose Martinez Trade

By Mark Polishuk | December 24, 2018 at 5:02pm CDT

Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season. On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought. Paul Goldschmidt has taken over as the Cards’ everyday first baseman, and with Marcell Ozuna in left field and Dexter Fowler slated for right field duty and hoping for a rebound, Martinez is now a man without a position, making him an intriguing potential trade chip as the Cardinals continue their offseason business.

Of course, there’s a good case to be made that St. Louis might not want to deal Martinez at all. Since Goldschmidt is only under contract through 2019, the Cards may want to keep Martinez in the fold as long-term insurance if case Goldschmidt leaves in free agency. Secondly, Martinez’s inexpensive pre-arbitration salary makes him a good asset for St. Louis to have as a bench bat. It’s easy to imagine the Cardinals hanging onto Martinez for late-game pinch-hitting duty, or the occasional spot start should Goldschmidt, Ozuna, or Fowler require a day off. Plus, should Fowler’s struggles continue next season, Martinez could find himself getting more regular playing time in right field.

There’s also the fact that the Cardinals seem to have already completed their biggest winter additions. After landing Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cards’ remaining needs are relatively minor — a backup catcher, a left-handed bench bat, and perhaps another bullpen arm. Any of these could be addressed in free agency rather than by trading Martinez.

With those arguments in mind, let’s now look at the case for why St. Louis might want to swing a deal. For starters, trading Martinez now could be a sell-high move. He was an unheralded prospect, who bounced around three other organizations (White Sox, Braves, Royals) before landing with the Cardinals, and Martinez didn’t really show much at the plate until 2014, when he was a 25-year-old on Atlanta’s high-A ball team. Since Martinez turned 30 last July, he doesn’t really project as a long-term piece for the Cards.

There’s also the fact that “man without a position” is something of an apt description for Martinez even when he was getting everyday at-bats, as he has been a below-average defensive player whenever he has played around the diamond. In 637 2/3 innings as an outfielder, Martinez has a -10.6 UZR/150 and minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved. He hasn’t fared much better even at the less-stressful position, posting minus-6 DRS and a -2.8 UZR/150 over 936 1/3 frames at first base. While Martinez’s defense isn’t really an issue if he’s only limited to a spot start, or an inning or two at the end of a game after a pinch-hitting appearance, his poor glovework makes him a liability should the Cards actually need him for an extended fill-in capacity in case of injury.

The Rays and Dodgers have both reportedly shown some interest in acquiring Martinez, who makes some sense on either roster. Los Angeles is looking to add some right-handed pop to its mostly left-handed lineup, though the Dodgers could be aiming for bigger-ticket additions (such as J.T. Realmuto or A.J. Pollock) than Martinez. It’s possible that Tampa’s recent acquisition of Yandy Diaz could have taken them out of the Martinez hunt, as Diaz is another right-handed hitting complement to Ji-Man Choi in the first base/DH mix and Diaz also offers more defensive flexibility.

The Cardinals also tried to use Martinez as a trade chip to land Will Smith from the Giants, though it doesn’t appear San Francisco had much interest. While the Giants need corner outfield help, Martinez would be a poor fit in the spacious AT&T Park outfield, and first base is already spoken for in the form of Brandon Belt (plus, Buster Posey handles first when the Giants spell him behind the plate).

We’ve already seen some significant action within the first base market this winter, as the likes of Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana (twice), Justin Bour, C.J. Cron, Matt Adams, and Steve Pearce have all been traded or signed with new teams. Daniel Murphy will also be serving mostly as a first baseman with the Rockies, which addresses arguably the most glaring first base hole on any contending team.

It doesn’t leave much in the way of a wide-open trade market for Martinez, particularly since NL teams could be less likely to make a push given his lack of defensive prowess. On the plus side, his four years of team control could attract rebuilding clubs as well as contenders.

The Royals or Tigers make some sense as a Martinez suitor, though K.C. has a lot of right-handed hitters already and Detroit has youngster Christin Stewart slated for some DH duty due to his own defensive shortcomings. Martinez’s low price tag could appeal to the Mariners as they continue to cut costs, though the Cardinals would likely have to bring a third team into the trade to acquire Encarnacion, who obviously isn’t a fit in St. Louis with Goldschmidt on board. The White Sox could use Martinez as a part-time outfielder and platoon partner with Yonder Alonso in 2019, with an eye towards a more regular role if one or both of Alonso and Jose Abreu depart in free agency after the season. The Astros have been reportedly checking around for first base/DH help, though with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White already provided right-handed bats, Martinez could be overkill.

Returning to the National League, one interesting option could be Goldschmidt’s former team. The Diamondbacks are planning to give Jake Lamb some time at first base this season, though Lamb is coming off a rough 2018 and didn’t even hit left-handed pitching well even when he was in good form. If the D’Backs added Martinez to the first base mix, that would allow them to situationally shuffle Lamb to third base, Eduardo Escobar to second, and Ketel Marte potentially to center field. While Martinez-to-Arizona makes sense on paper, however, one would imagine the idea was already floated between the D’Backs and Cardinals when they were discussing the Goldschmidt trade. While that doesn’t necessarily mean the Diamondbacks wouldn’t pursue Martinez in a future deal later this winter, Martinez’s non-inclusion in that initial trade could indicate some lack of interest on Arizona’s part.

Looking For A Match In A Carlos Santana Trade

By Tim Dierkes | November 15, 2018 at 10:47am CDT

Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported via a rival executive that the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana. The Rhys Hoskins left field experiment went poorly this year, so it’s logical for GM Matt Klentak to attempt to trade the veteran Santana to allow Hoskins to move back to first base in 2019.

First, let’s take a look at what Santana is in this stage of his career. He’s a switch-hitting walk machine with modest power. He put up a 109 wRC+ for the Phillies this year, and 119 from May onward. Steamer projects a 119 mark on the whole for Santana next year. That’s a level he’s reached only once in the last four seasons, so it would be fair to question such optimism.

Though it’s an unscientific and more conservative guess, I’d expect 110-115. Certainly if you’re a rival GM and Santana is being shopped to you, you’d take my position on his expected offense. Santana has spent most of his time as a first baseman in recent years with the Phillies and Indians, and of course he’s an option at designated hitter as well.

Santana’s contract is a major factor in any potential trade. He’s owed $35MM over the next two years. Given Santana’s strong projection for next year, a case can be made that the Phillies shouldn’t need to pay his contract down significantly. However, I think in reality there are enough cheaper alternatives on the market that the Phillies will have to kick in at least $10MM, or else take back a contract or attach a prospect.

For a look at the other first basemen available this winter, check out Jeff Todd’s market snapshot from last month. The free agent market doesn’t offer any first baseman who qualifies as a definite regular, but the trade market could be robust. Paul Goldschmidt is obviously superior to Santana, while Justin Smoak is a fairly similar hitter who is earning only $8MM in 2019. Though better suited at DH, the Cardinals’ Jose Martinez is also in Santana’s class as a hitter. Martinez has yet to reach arbitration and can be controlled for four more years. I’m not convinced Jose Abreu and Brandon Belt will be on the move this winter. The trade market at first base could also feature a variety of more flawed options, such as Justin Bour (now on waivers), Eric Thames, or Wil Myers. The bottom line: the presence of Goldschmidt, Smoak, and perhaps Martinez could clog Santana’s market, as Goldy is an impact hitter and the others have more desirable contract situations.

There’s also the idea that a team with an established first baseman could acquire Santana to serve primarily as its designated hitter. The DH trade market could include Kendrys Morales, Mark Trumbo, Shin-Soo Choo, C.J. Cron, Matt Davidson, and Miguel Cabrera. As a hitter, only Cabrera is on Santana’s level, and he’s basically immovable due to his hefty contract. The free agent market does offer one option that is superior to Santana as a DH: Nelson Cruz. Cruz projects at a 132 wRC+ next year, and we expect him to sign for less than the $35MM owed to Santana. So if you’re looking to fill a DH spot, you would talk to Cruz’s agent before you’d worry about trading for Santana – unless the Phillies offer to pay down Santana’s contract significantly. You might also look at a player like Daniel Murphy, who carries a similar projection to Santana and should sign for less than $30MM.

If the Phillies are viewing Santana as mainly a contract dump, they might need to kick in $15MM to get him down to the equivalent of a two year, $20MM deal. If the commitment was reduced that far, Santana might start to rise up on teams’ lists above someone like Murphy. Here’s a look at the teams that could be a match for Santana this winter:

Twins: With Joe Mauer retiring and Logan Morrison reaching free agency, the Twins have an opening at first base and the need for a bat like Santana. They also have room in the payroll for most of his contract. It’s a reasonable match.
Astros: The Astros make a lot of sense for Santana. He’s a better hitter than their incumbent first baseman, Yuli Gurriel, and they’re open at DH with Evan Gattis reaching free agency. Still, it would be easier for the Astros or Twins to just sign Cruz, so the Phillies would have to make it worth their while.
Rays: Earlier this month, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote that the Rays “seek more of a feared overall hitter” than the arbitration eligible C.J. Cron. The Rays also have more payroll space than they’ve had in recent years, making Santana a pretty good fit. The Rays also have Jake Bauers at first base. 27-year-old Ji-Man Choi pitched in at DH this year and should have a job against right-handed pitching. The Rays are a sleeper pick for Santana, though like the Astros and Twins they’d need to be convinced he’s a better option than Cruz.
Rockies: After giving the bulk of first base time to Ian Desmond this year and getting replacement level production, the Rockies could seek an upgrade. GM Jeff Bridich spoke earlier this month of being “a little bit more focused on our offense this offseason as compared to last season,” and Santana could give a boost compared to Desmond or Ryan McMahon. However, the team’s payroll appears fairly tight and they may also address deficiencies at catcher and in a corner outfield spot.
Cardinals: The Cardinals deployed the aforementioned Jose Martinez as well as Matt Carpenter at first base this year. Carpenter could move to third base to accommodate a first base acquisition like Santana. However, replacing Martinez with Santana would upgrade the defense more than anything, since they are hitters of similar ability. I could see the Cards taking a look at Santana, but not as their first choice.
White Sox: The Sox appear likely to stick with Jose Abreu at first base, and could run out a Daniel Palka-Matt Davidson DH platoon. Palka is an option at an outfield corner, so the White Sox could feasibly add Santana as a primary DH who also chips in at first base. They’ve got plenty of payroll space as well.
Angels: The presence of both Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols make the Angels an unlikely match for Santana. Still, the Halos should have some at-bats available at first base and DH, as Ohtani and Pujols are hardly locks for 150 games apiece. And theoretically, Santana could try to fake it at third base as he did in 119 innings for the Phillies this year.
Rangers: With Shin-Soo Choo locked in at DH, the Rangers could acquire Santana as a replacement for first baseman Ronald Guzman. It might be too early to give up on the 24-year-old Guzman, and the Rangers have stronger needs on the pitching staff and at catcher. Still, if they’re simply looking to get better next year in any way possible, replacing Guzman with Santana should at least be on the table.
Marlins: This is an outside the box option, since most of the focus with the Marlins is on which veteran pieces they’ll sell off as their rebuild continues. The team does have a few internal options at first base for next year such as Peter O’Brien and Garrett Cooper. Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said a month ago, “We’re going to look at internal candidates, and we’re going to look at external candidates.” Why not Santana? For one thing, a trade can work well for a rebuilding club seeking a veteran boost, since free agents are typically reluctant to sign unless such a team overbids. Plus, the Marlins arguably have the payroll space to take on Santana’s entire contract, especially if they unload players like J.T. Realmuto, Dan Straily, and Derek Dietrich. In taking on all $35MM, the Marlins could demand that the Phillies throw in a quality prospect. It’s still a long shot scenario for the division-mates to match up on a Santana deal, however.
Orioles: The Orioles are stuck with Chris Davis through 2022, unless they’re willing to release him. They’ve also got Trumbo under contract for one more year. Adding Santana only makes sense in the same vein as the Marlins: take the entire contract, and get a quality veteran hitter plus a prospect.
Tigers: The Tigers could slot Miguel Cabrera in at DH and acquire Santana for first base. They’ve got the payroll space for Santana, at least compared to historical spending. But a bargain option makes more sense here unless the Phillies offer something enticing, putting the Tigers in the same group as fellow rebuilders like the Marlins and Orioles.
Red Sox: The Red Sox have first baseman Mitch Moreland under contract for $6.5MM for 2019 and J.D. Martinez locked in at DH. The most likely path is just bringing back Steve Pearce as Moreland’s right-handed hitting complement, but the Sox could theoretically acquire Santana and plug him in as the everyday first baseman. Doing so would likely make the team better, though a first base switch doesn’t appear to be an offseason priority. Plus, acquiring Santana would worsen Boston’s luxury tax penalty.
Yankees: The Yankees have Luke Voit and Greg Bird as first base options, and Giancarlo Stanton spending at least some of his time at DH. There’s no real point to replacing Voit with Santana, and the Yankees have bigger needs, so this match appears unlikely.
Royals: The Royals don’t have anyone at first base or DH that would preclude an acquisition of Santana. But with the team looking to cut payroll, trading for Santana hardly makes sense.

Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade

By Mark Polishuk | October 21, 2018 at 9:09pm CDT

The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that). As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.

For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering. Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons. The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).

This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason. Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season. Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM. That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.

Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays. Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season. Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.

Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons. Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field. A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.

Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter. After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…

Longshots

Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season. Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019. The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell. Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season. I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade. This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary. That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint). Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.

Potential Suitors

Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix). Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend. If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup. Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix. If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz’s free agency, Ryon Healy’s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019. Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt. One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR). Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career. The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup. The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.

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