Will Trevor Bauer Opt Out After The Season?
When Trevor Bauer signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers back in February, he ensured flexibility by securing opt-outs after the first and second years. However, the details suggest the contract was designed to keep Bauer in Los Angeles for the first two seasons.
Bauer received a $10MM signing bonus, $5MM of which was paid in March. The other $5MM will be paid next month. Beyond that, his 2021 salary is $28MM, but with the quirk that it’s all payable on November 1st of this year. Here’s what happens if he opts out after the 2021 season, according to Cot’s:
Bauer may opt out of the contract after the 2021 season, receiving a $2M buyout, with Dodgers deferring $20M of 2021 salary without interest, paid in $2M installments each Dec. 1, 2031-40
In other words, if Bauer opts out after this season, he walks away with $12MM in hand, and then has to wait a decade until the Dodgers pay him again. And even then, it’s $2MM per year for ten years, with no interest. Your estimates may vary, but that deferred $20MM is worth a lot less than being paid now – most likely half as much.
Opting out after the 2022 season involves none of that deferred money stuff, and throws in a $15MM buyout. Bauer would have earned $85MM for two seasons, foregoing a mere $17MM for ’23. Barring injury, jumping out of the contract at this point seems like an easy choice. As the best pitcher on the free agent market, Bauer landed a very flexible contract. The Dodgers took on all the downside risk, which is the nature of opt-out clauses.
Bauer started this season strong enough to at least give another look to the possibility of opting out after ’21. After an outing at San Francisco on May 21st, Bauer’s ERA sat at 1.98 through 12 starts, with a 36.2 K%. If you had asked me at that point, I’d have said it’d make sense for Bauer to opt out after ’21, even if just to land the same three-year deal all over again. But on the horizon was a hallmark date with a potentially large effect on Bauer and many other pitchers. On June 3rd, Bob Nightengale wrote, “Major League Baseball informed owners Thursday that it is engaged in the next phase of league-directed enforcement banning the use of foreign substances by pitchers — which would include 10-day suspensions — two persons with direct knowledge of the meeting told USA TODAY Sports.” Today, MLB announced its new enforcement plan, which starts Monday.
Through May 31st, Bauer averaged 2840 RPM and 93.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball. In the two starts since, those numbers are 2630 RPM and 94.1 mph. There are players who have lost more RPM on their four-seamers since the impending crackdown became known, without much velocity change, such as the Indians’ James Karinchak. But Bauer’s 210 RPM loss on the four-seamer is significant, especially for a guy who throws the pitch 44% of the time.
All we can say definitively is that the average spin rate on Bauer’s four-seam fastball in two starts after June 3rd was 210 RPM lower than the average RPM in a dozen starts before that date. That the RPM drop was caused by Bauer stopping the usage of foreign substances on the ball or changing what he uses is the implication, but not a fact. It’d take a further leap to say that Bauer’s mediocre results in those two starts were caused by the RPM drop. It should be noted that 2630 RPM still ranks sixth in baseball from June 3rd onward, and there’s nothing too meaningful about allowing seven earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. It’s also worth pointing out that Bauer’s ERA was probably not going to stay around 2.00 even without a foreign substance crackdown. Bauer certainly has not shied away from MLB’s sticky stuff drama, as he “demonstrated to reporters on the field before Tuesday’s game that a combination of sweat and rosin was sufficient to allow him to stick a baseball to his hand, palm down,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register. He showed this on Twitter, while also diving into Tyler Glasnow‘s comments.
If you’re an MLB GM considering signing Bauer at some point in the future, you’re definitely going to try to determine how much of Bauer’s recent success was the result of the use of foreign substances, because you have to forecast how he’ll perform over the next several years. If this was a major consideration for Bauer’s suitors in the 2020-21 offseason, I didn’t hear about it. For Bauer and potential suitors, the calculus has changed. So let’s get your opinions on when we’ll see him next on the free agent market.
When will Trevor Bauer hit free agency next?
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He'll opt out after the 2022 season. 52% (4,502)
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He'll play out his three-year deal and hit the market after '23. 31% (2,688)
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He'll opt out after the 2021 season. 16% (1,386)
Total votes: 8,576
Dodgers Place Cody Bellinger On IL
The Dodgers placed center fielder Cody Bellinger on the IL for left hamstring tightness and recalled Mitch White, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio was among those to report. The timing of the injury is unfortunate, as tonight is the first full-capacity game at Dodger Stadium since before the pandemic. Bellinger is eligible to be activated on June 22nd, notes Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A.
Bellinger returned from a lengthy IL stint on May 29th after recovering from a hairline fracture in his left fibula. Now, he’s back to the IL due to a hamstring injury, which first cropped up last Friday. The Dodgers will again make do without the 2019 NL MVP. This year, that’s generally meant Chris Taylor and Mookie Betts in center field. With Max Muncy hitting the IL on Saturday, the Dodgers’ current first base tandem is Matt Beaty and Albert Pujols. In his 66 plate appearances with the Dodgers, Pujols has a 131 wRC+. The Dodgers are also without star shortstop Corey Seager, who might return early next month from a broken hand.
In recalling White, the Dodgers have gone to a nine-man bullpen after yesterday’s short start from Tony Gonsolin.
Dodgers Place Max Muncy On 10-Day Injured List
JUNE 13: Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com) the Dodgers are hopeful Muncy will be able to return after a minimal 10-day IL stint, but cautioned that the team won’t rush him back before he’s ready.
JUNE 12: The Dodgers have placed infielder Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain, the team announced. Outfielder Luke Raley has been called up from Triple-A to fill Muncy’s spot on the active roster.
Muncy hit a two-run homer in the first inning of the Dodgers’ 12-1 win over the Rangers on Friday, but he was replaced at first base by Albert Pujols for the start of the second inning. The home run was Muncy’s team-leading 14th of the season, continuing an outstanding season that has seen Muncy hit .264/.418/.528 with a league-best 46 walks.
Unfortunately for the Dodgers, they’ll now be without this productive bat for at least the next 10 days, and potentially quite a few more if Muncy has suffered anything beyond a minimal strain. Muncy has also been bothered by a sore ankle in recent days, so it’s possible that even if his oblique problem is a minor one, the Dodgers might give Muncy beyond the 10-day minimum just to get him fully healed up and ready to go. Muncy was scheduled to undergo more tests on his oblique today but the team has yet to release any update on the severity of the injury or any sort of recovery timeline.
With Muncy out, Pujols and Matt Beaty could now serve as a righty/lefty platoon at first base. Beaty has been a productive part-timer in his three seasons with L.A., and Pujols moving into a semi-starting role for the World Series champions represents quite a turn-around for the future Hall-of-Famer over the last month. It seemed as if Pujols’ career might have been over after the Angels cut him loose in May, but since signing with the Dodgers, Pujols has hit .268/.317/.571 with five home runs over 60 PA.
If Muncy’s injury wasn’t enough, Cody Bellinger also left Friday’s game due to left hamstring tightness. Bellinger’s issue doesn’t seem to be as serious, since manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and other reporters that Bellinger could potentially be back in action by Sunday.
Dodgers Sign Vidal Nuno III To Minors Contract
The Dodgers have signed left-hander Vidal Nuno III to a minor league contract, according to Triple-A Oklahoma City’s communications director and broadcaster Alex Freedman (Twitter link).
This is technically Nuno’s second stint with the Dodgers, Freeman notes, since Los Angeles originally acquired the southpaw in a trade with the Mariners in November 2016. Nuno never appeared in a game for the Dodgers, however, as he was flipped to the Orioles in another swap in February 2017.
A veteran of six MLB seasons from 2013-18, Nuno has a 4.06 ERA/3.97 SIERA, 19.6% strikeout rate, and 13% strikeout/walk rate over 377 innings, working out of the bullpen in 113 of his 155 career games. Never a hard-thrower or a big strikeout pitcher, Nuno relied on a five-pitch arsenal and soft contact to retire his fair share of batters.
Nuno signed minor league deals with the Nationals and Rays in 2019 but didn’t receive another call-up back to the Show. After not pitching during the canceled 2020 minor league season, Nuno landed with Tijuana of the Mexican League this year, pitching two games for the Toros.
Dodgers Designate Dennis Santana, Select Andy Burns
The Dodgers announced a trio of roster moves, with Andy Burns joining the active roster after the infielder’s contract was selected from Triple-A. Right-hander Dennis Santana was designated for assignment to open up a spot for Burns on the 40-man roster, and right-hander Mitch White was optioned to Triple-A.
Burns’ big league resume consists of 10 games with the Blue Jays back in 2016. Since being drafted as an 11th-round pick in 2011, Burns’ pro career has been mostly spent in Toronto’s farm system, but he also spent parts of three seasons playing overseas in South Korea and Australia. After signing a minor league deal with Los Angeles last winter, Burns has been ripping up Triple-A pitching, with a .330/.427/.598 slash line over 117 plate appearances with Oklahoma City.
As is typical with most Dodgers players, Burns offers defensive versatility. The 30-year-old has mostly played second and third base over his career, but also has quite a bit of experience at shortstop, first base, left field, and a handful of games as a right fielder. Burns joins Zach McKinstry and Matt Beaty as L.A. bench options who can handle multiple positions, while Albert Pujols remains limited to first base and pinch-hit duties.
Santana has appeared in each of the last four seasons for the Dodgers, totaling a 6.42 ERA and 18.7% strikeout rate over 40 2/3 Major League innings. Control has increasingly emerged as a problem for Santana, with inflated walk totals at both the MLB and Triple-A levels in 2019 and 2021 — this season, the righty has 11 walks against only eight strikeouts.
Dodgers Activate Tony Gonsolin From 60-Day Injured List
The Dodgers have activated right-hander Tony Gonsolin from the 60-day injured list, per a club announcement. He’s in line to start tonight’s game against the Pirates after sitting out the entire year to date due shoulder inflammation. In a pair of corresponding moves, Los Angeles placed Yoshi Tsutsugo on the 10-day injured list due to a strained right calf and transferred lefty Scott Alexander from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Alexander is on the injured list due to his own bout of shoulder inflammation.
Gonsolin, 27, is one of the game’s most overqualified fifth/sixth starters. He trails Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias on the team’s depth chart and may not have cracked the Opening Day rotation, had he been healthy, due to the presence of Dustin May (who has since undergone Tommy John surgery). On nearly any other club in Major League Baseball, Gonsolin would have had a more straightforward opportunity to establish himself as a rotation fixture — an opportunity he may now get in Los Angeles.
From 2019-20, Gonsolin tallied 86 2/3 innings for the Dodgers, pitching to a 2.60 ERA with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate, a 6.5 percent walk rate and a 37.7 percent ground-ball rate. He’s not an overpowering arm, sitting 94.4 mph with his heater, but he’s generated a strong 13 percent swinging-strike rate and induced chases on pitches off the plate at a 33.1 percent clip in his short MLB career to date. Only 14 of his 20 MLB appearances so far have been starts, but he’s been more effective out of the rotation than the bullpen in that short sample.
That level of depth is a clear luxury for the Dodgers, but with May out for the rest of the year — and for a portion of 2022 as well — Gonsolin may get the chance to take the ball every fifth day, assuming his own health holds up. He’s given every indication to this point that he’s more than capable of holding down a permanent rotation job at the MLB level.
Turning to today’s other moves, Tsutsugo will head to the shelf after struggling through his first 31 plate appearances since coming over in a small trade with the Rays. He’s out to a 3-for-25 start (all singles) with six walks and a dozen strikeouts in that time. The hope was likely that he could fill a similar role to Edwin Rios, who’s been lost for the season due to shoulder surgery, but to this point it hasn’t worked out.
Alexander, meanwhile, went on the injured list in early May and will now be out through at least early July as a result. (The 60-day term is retroactive to his original IL placement — not from today forth.) He’s been a solid but up-and-down member of the team’s bullpen since being acquired from the Royals four years ago, pitching to a 3.44 ERA in 107 1/3 innings dating back to 2018. He opened the 2021 season with 11 2/3 frames of 2.31 ERA ball, a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio and a whopping 63.2 percent ground-ball rate — a mark that is actually a fair bit shy of his career 70.4 percent rate.
NL Injury Notes: Muncy, Guillorme, Blandino
Let’s check in on a couple of injury situations in the National League…
- The Dodgers got some good news today as X-Rays on Max Muncy‘s ankle came back negative, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). Muncy is suffering from a mild ankle sprain, but he should be available to pinch-hit. Muncy has perhaps been even better than usual this season with a 165 wRC+ while handling 72 percent of the workload at first base and 12 percent of the playing time at second.
- Luis Guillorme began a rehab assignment in Triple-A on Friday night as he recoveres from a right oblique strain, per Deesha Thosar of the NY Daily News (via Twitter). The Mets expect Guillorme to be healthy enough for activation by the end of the week.
- Alex Blandino has a broken right hand, but no surgery will be required, so he could return to the Reds in three to six weeks, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). A first round pick back in 2014, Blandino has appeared at every infield position and left field while also toeing the rubber four times this season for the Reds. He owns a .200/.317/.257 in 82 plate appearances.
Dodgers Activate Cody Bellinger, Zach McKinstry, Option DJ Peters And Sheldon Neuse To Triple-A
The Dodgers got some good news today as Cody Bellinger and Zach McKinstry have both re-joined the team from the injured list, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (via Twitter). DJ Peters and Sheldon Neuse have been optioned to Triple-A to create the necessary roster space.
Bellinger has been out for all but four games of the 2021 season. He suffered a stress fracture of his fibula in the first week of the season. The former MVP had just 21 plate appearances before hitting the injured list. With his return, Chris Taylor can return to a super-utility role.
While the Dodgers are no doubt thrilled to get Bellinger back in the lineup, they haven’t missed a step with Taylor in Bellinger’s place: Taylor has posted a 146 wRC+ this season. The reverberant effects, however, have left the Dodgers a little short-handed at times, leading to the signing of Albert Pujols and continued use of Max Muncy at second base. Muncy has continued to prove himself capable at the keystone. Regardless, the Dodgers will enjoy the options available to them now that Taylor is once again freed up to move around the diamond.
McKinstry, 26, had been perhaps the story of the season for the Dodgers before he, too, went down with an injury. The infielder/outfielder was slashing .296/.328/.556 before landing on the injured list with an oblique strain.
On the whole, the Dodgers have had to flex their tremendous depth early on this season. They’ve done so successfully. With McKinstry and Bellinger back in the fold, they again appear to have perhaps the deepest and most versatile collection of position players in the game.
Peters, 25, will benefit from more regular playing time as he returns to Triple-A. In 34 plate appearances with the parent club, Peters hit .192/.382/.385, good for a 96 wRC+. Neuse, 26, has yet to figure it out at the dish this season, posting a 47 wRC+. Both players figure to find their way back to the bigs at some point this season.
West Notes: Belt, Bellinger, Gonzales, Pomeranz, Adell
The Giants are placing first baseman Brandon Belt on the 10-day injured list with a mild left oblique strain and recalling infielder Jason Vosler, per manager Gabe Kapler (via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Kapler doesn’t expect Belt to miss more than 10 to 14 days, and in the meantime, Darin Ruf will get the lion’s share of playing time at first base. Even a short absence for Belt could be a tough blow for the contending Giants, though, considering he’s off to a .228/.350/.447 start with eight home runs in 137 plate appearances. However, Ruf has also hit well – albeit over a smaller sample of 97 PA – with a .228/.361/.506 line and six long balls.
- The Dodgers are hopeful that slugger Cody Bellinger will return from the injured list on Saturday, manager Dave Roberts told Juan Toribio of MLB.com and other reporters. Los Angeles has gone nearly the entire season without Bellinger, who suffered a hairline fracture in his left leg and hasn’t played since April 5. Nevertheless, the reigning World Series champions have more than held their own in Bellinger’s absence, having won eight straight to improve to 30-18.
- Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales, out since April with a forearm strain, is making progress and could come back during the team’s upcoming homestand (May 27-June 2), per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Gonzales was one of the top starters in the league year, but he’s off to a rough beginning this season between the injury and his performance. Before going on the IL, Gonzales recorded a surprisingly poor 5.40 ERA/4.87 SIERA in 28 1/3 innings, and his walk rate skyrocketed compared to 2020. He issued walks just 2.5 percent of the time then, but he’s up to 9.1 now.
- Padres reliever Drew Pomeranz has suffered a setback in his recovery from a left shoulder impingement, manager Jayce Tingler announced to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and other reporters. The Padres will shut Pomeranz down from throwing for about a week and then decide how to proceed. Unfortunately, injuries have been a common problem since Pomeranz’s career began in 2011. When healthy, though, he has been a revelation for the Padres since they inked him to a four-year, $34MM contract before 2020. Dating back to then, the 32-year-old has registered a 1.67 ERA with a highly impressive 38 percent strikeout rate in 32 1/3 innings, including 13 2/3 this season.
- Despite his encouraging start to the season at the Triple-A level, the Angels have not recalled top outfield prospect Jo Adell. That doesn’t look as if it’s going to change imminently, as general manager Perry Minasian said Tuesday (via Bill Shaikin of the LA Times): “He’s making some strides. He’s not there yet.” While the 22-year-old Adell has hit a power-packed .266/.326/.696 with 10 home runs in 86 plate appearances, he has posted a high strikeout rate of 33.7 percent at the same time. Strikeouts have been an issue over the past few years for Adell, including during his major league debut last season. He fanned in 41.7 percent of his 132 PA then and batted a woeful .161/.212/.266.
The Best Minor League Deals Of 2021 (So Far): Pitchers
We took a look last week at some of the minor league pacts that have paid the most dividends, focusing in on position players in both leagues. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of offense throughout baseball as a whole at the moment, there are even more success stories on the pitching side of the coin. Some of these are products of small sample size, particularly for the many relievers on the list, but at least for our initial check-in on this subject, the early returns have been strong.
- Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: We’re nearing Memorial Day weekend, and Kennedy is tied for the American League lead in saves — just as everyone expected! The 36-year-old righty isn’t just scraping by and narrowly escaping in a bunch of three-run leads, though. He’s tallied 19 1/3 innings and allowed just four runs, all while recording a terrific 31.1 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 5.4 percent walk rate. If Texas remains near the bottom of the AL West standings, he’ll be an appealing trade target for bullpen-needy clubs.
- Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Mariners: A quality setup man with the 2017-18 Marlins, Steckenrider’s time in Miami was derailed by injuries — most notably a 2019 flexor strain. He looks to be back on track in his new surroundings, however, having tossed 18 1/3 innings of 2.45 ERA ball with a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and an 11.1 percent walk rate. The walks are a bit elevated, but he’s helped to combat that with a career-best 54 percent ground-ball mark. The Mariners (or another club) could control Steckenrider through 2023 via arbitration as well, which only adds to the value.
- Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Dodgers: The Dodgers just placed Nelson on the injured list due to a forearm issue, so there are (once again) some obvious health question marks with Nelson. There’s no ignoring how effective he’s been thus far, however. Nelson’s 39.1 percent strikeout rate is the ninth-best among all MLB relievers, and he’s paired that with a pristine 2.41 ERA. Like Shaw, he’s walked too many batters (13 percent), but the former Brewers ace has shown high-leverage, late-inning potential with L.A.
- Bryan Shaw, RHP, Indians: Shaw was an iron man in the Cleveland ‘pen but flopped in Colorado after signing a three-year, $27MM contract going into 2018. Back in his old stomping grounds, he’s tallied 19 innings with a pristine 1.42 ERA. The 33-year-old has issued 13 walks, so he’ll need to cut back on the free passes if he hopes to continue this success, but Shaw’s strikeout and ground-ball percentages are among the best of his career (29.3 percent, 57.5 percent, respectively).
- Lucas Luetge, LHP, Yankees: Luetge’s last MLB appearance prior to his Yankees debut came with the 2015 Mariners. The now-34-year-old southpaw signed minor league deals with five organizations before making it back to the show, which is remarkable in and of itself. That he’s been one of the Yankees’ best relievers, however, makes his story all the more incredible. Luetge, who entered 2021 with all of 89 MLB frames under his belt, has a 2.95 ERA and a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings for the Yankees thus far. Considering the injuries to Zack Britton and Darren O’Day, Luetge’s unexpected contributions have been a godsend. If he can keep this up, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and controllable through the 2024 season.
- Hyeon-jong Yang, LHP, Rangers: Yang, a former KBO MVP, could’ve returned to that league on a guaranteed deal but refused to give up on his aspirations of playing in the Majors, even if it meant taking a non-guaranteed pact. He’s 21 1/3 innings into the realization of that lifelong goal, and the Rangers are no doubt pleased with their decision. Yang, 33, opened the season with the Rangers’ alternate site group but had his contract selected in late April. He now owns a 3.38 ERA, and while his pedestrian strikeout and walk rates might point to some possible regression, he’s induced plenty of weak contact (average 87.4 mph exit velocity, just a 13.1 percent line-drive rate). An 11.2 percent swinging-strike rate suggests there could be more K’s to come, as well.
- Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP, Rockies: Gonzalez’s numbers don’t stand out that much, but he’s eating innings and delivering roughly league-average run-prevention numbers when adjusting for his home park (102 ERA+, 99 ERA-). Through nine appearances, seven of them starts, Gonzalez is carrying a 4.54 ERA. He’s totaled 41 2/3 innings for a Rockies club that has gone the whole season without lefty Kyle Freeland. Gonzalez has rattled off consecutive quality starts and helped the Rox get through the first two months of the season. The secondary marks aren’t great, but average innings have value — especially in 2021 when teams are so conscientious about their pitchers’ workloads.
- Nabil Crismatt, RHP, Padres: Crismatt had just 8 1/3 innings of MLB experience (all with the 2020 Cardinals) when he arrived in Padres camp this spring. He’s more than doubled that total in 2021 already, pitching 17 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball with a hefty 52.2 percent grounder rate. Crismatt is an oddity in today’s game, sitting under 89 mph with a fastball that is only seldom used due to the fact that he throws his changeup at a whopping 46.5 percent clip. It’s weird, but so far — it’s worked.
- Anthony Bender, RHP, Marlins: A 26-year-old rookie who never pitched above Double-A with the Royals or Brewers before joining the Marlins on a minor league deal this winter, Bender is sitting 97.4 mph with his heater and has tossed 8 2/3 shutout innings to open his career. He’s whiffed 36.7 percent of his opponents against a 3.3 percent walk rate. Small sample? Sure, but Bender also rattled off 8 1/3 shutout frames during Spring Training, too. Not bad for a guy who posted a 5.48 ERA with the independent American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen in 2020.
- Heath Hembree, RHP, Reds: After a rough 2020 season, Hembree has bounced back early in 2021. His 4.15 ERA through 13 frames is nothing special, but his strikeout rate is sitting at a career-high 33.3 percent after plummeting in 2020. His 6.3 percent walk rate is a career-best, and his 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t far off from his peak years in Boston. Hembree’s velocity is also up to 95.2 mph after dipping to 93.9 mph in 2019-20. It’s early, but those are some encouraging indicators.
- Zack Littell, RHP, Giants: Littell hasn’t spent much time with the Giants yet, but he’s chucked 10 2/3 innings and held opponents to just one run on eight hits and three walks with nine punchouts. His 94.8 mph average fastball velocity is a career-high, as is his 48.3 percent grounder rate. The former Twins righty only has a year of big league service and could be controllable for several years if he figures it out in San Francisco.
- Deolis Guerra, RHP, Athletics: It’s hard to believe Guerra just turned 32, given that he was one of the pieces traded from the Mets to the Twins way back in 2008’s Johan Santana trade. He’s bounced around the league in journeyman style but is enjoying a nice run with the A’s to kick off the ’21 season. In 20 2/3 frames, Guerra has a 3.92 ERA with a pedestrian K-BB% but intriguing levels of weak contact induced.
- JT Chargois, RHP, Mariners: Like Littell, Chargois hasn’t seen much time in the bigs yet, but he’s sporting a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings for Seattle. He’s had multiple chances with the Twins and Dodgers in recent years but never found much consistency. Chargois also mustered only a 5.81 ERA pitching for Japan’s Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2020. Still, it’s a nice start to his 2021 season.
- Brad Boxberger, RHP, Brewers: The right-hander, who’ll turn 33 this week, has hurled 17 1/3 innings so far in Milwaukee and pitched to a 4.15 ERA but with a more impressive 17-to-3 K/BB mark. As with many relievers early in a given season, the bulk of the damage against Boxberger came in one appearance (against the Cardinals). He’s been unscored upon in 16 of his 19 outings so far in 2021.
- Ervin Santana, RHP, Royals: The Royals love their reunions more than any team in baseball, and Santana is somewhat improbably back to “smelling baseball,” as he likes to say, for a second stint in Kansas City. He’s only allowed four runs in 15 1/3 innings (2.35 ERA), but he’s also only picked up eight strikeouts against four walks. His fastball is sitting 93 mph again after living at 89-90 in 2018-19, but the red flags are plentiful: 13.1 percent strikeout rate, 91 percent strand rate, .213 BABIP, 45 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate.
- Paolo Espino, RHP, Nationals: The Nats quietly re-signed the now 34-year-old Espino before the calendar even flipped to November last year. So far, it’s been a worthwhile reunion, as he’s held opponents to four runs on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 14 innings (2.57 ERA). Espino won’t keep this up if he can’t miss some more bats and/or induce far more grounders, however. He’s currently benefiting from a .175 BABIP and an 83.3 percent strand rate, while his 26.6 percent grounder rate will make it to limit home runs. Still, the Nats have 14 innings of decent results to show for the deal.
As with the position players, some of these strong starts will fade. There are a few at the back of the list that look particularly difficult to sustain, but there also look to be some genuine bargains unearthed among this group. Some will likely result in trades (Kennedy), but it’d make for a fun story to follow should any of the controllable arms (e.g. Bender, Crismatt) ultimately emerge as long-term pieces for the clubs who gave them their best career opportunities to date.