Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw
February 12: Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the specifics on Kershaw’s performance bonuses and escalators. The future Hall of Famer would earn a $1MM bonus for his sixth start next season, $1.5MM for each of his next three starts, and $2MM if he reaches 10 starts. A relief appearance in which he accrues at least nine outs also qualifies, protecting Kershaw in the event he follows an opener.
The $5MM base value of his 2025 player option would escalate based on his ’24 workload by the following amounts:
- $2MM for six starts
- $3MM apiece for seven through nine starts
- $4MM for 10 starts
If he exercises the option, the deal includes additional bonuses for 2025 depending on the number of starts he makes in each of the next two years.
February 9: Clayton Kershaw is heading back to the Dodgers. The team announced Friday that the left-hander has re-signed on a two-year guarantee — the second season of which is a player option. Kershaw, a client of Excel Sports Management, is recovering from November shoulder surgery and isn’t expected to pitch until the second half of the season, at the earliest. He’s reportedly guaranteed $10MM on the pact: $5MM in each season of the deal.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Kershaw’s 2024 incentives are contingent on him making six to ten starts this season. Any increases to this year’s base salary will also be reflected in the value of his player option. Sherman further adds that between those escalators and incentives specific to the 2025 season, Kershaw could earn as much as $25MM in year two of the contract. That’d give him a total earning power of $37.5MM over the two years of the contract.
Kershaw can boost that 2024 salary to $12.5MM based on the number of games he starts this season. The number of games he starts can also boost the base value of his 2025 player option. Right-hander Tony Gonsolin was moved to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot for Kershaw. If and when the Dodgers need another 40-man spot, Kershaw himself can be transferred to the 60-day IL.
Assuming he’s able to suit up at some point in the second half, the 2024 season will be Kershaw’s 17th pitching for the Dodgers, who selected him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, who hasn’t reached 30 starts in a season since 2015, but the quality of his results remains largely constant. From 2009-15, Kershaw averaged 32 starts per year, won four straight ERA titles and took home three Cy Young Awards. Since 2016, he’s averaged just 24 starts per 162-game season but maintained a brilliant 2.55 ERA — including sub-2.50 marks in three of the past four seasons.
Kershaw clearly wasn’t pitching at 100% for much of the 2023 season. A shoulder strain landed Kershaw on the injured list in July, and manager Dave Roberts candidly acknowledged in September that he was pitching at less than full strength. Los Angeles limited Kershaw to five innings per start for all but one start in his return from the injured list (a 5 1/3-inning outing in his final appearance of the season). Along the way, Kershaw’s average fastball dipped to career-low levels; he averaged just 89.4 mph on his fastball in his return — including just an 88.7 mph average through his final four starts.
Diminished velocity notwithstanding, Kershaw remained quite effective. In eight post-IL starts he turned in a pristine 2.23 ERA. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were both a ways from his pre-injury levels (27.7%, 6.3%), but Kershaw looked to making the most of what he had to offer on any given day. He didn’t allow more than three runs in any of those final eight appearances and in fact held opponents to one or zero runs in six of them. The D-backs ambushed him for six runs in the first inning of his lone NLDS start, however, ending his season on a low point.
It’s not yet clear when Kershaw might be able to rejoin the Dodgers’ staff, though they’ll presumably provide an update when announcing his deal and discussing it with the media. A returning Kershaw in the second half will provide some high-end insurance for a Dodgers rotation that is teeming with uncertainty. Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be adjusting to a new culture and a new league in his debut campaign this year. Right-hander Walker Buehler is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw James Paxton is a perennial injury risk. Young righties Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt haven’t pitched full big league seasons.
As already noted, Kershaw won’t be the only potential second-half addition for the Dodgers. The aforementioned May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor tendon repair in early July but could potentially be back for the stretch run. Gonsolin, who underwent Tommy John surgery in late August, feels like a longer shot to make it back but could potentially do so in a bullpen capacity if his rehab plays out in a best-case scenario.
The Dodgers are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and are already well into the final tier of luxury tax penalization. As such, any dollars committed to Kershaw will be taxed at a 110% rate. That apparently won’t be a deterrent as they welcome the future Hall of Famer back for a 17th season.
In 2712 2/3 innings though his big league career, Kershaw owns a 210-92 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate. He’s a ten-time All-Star with five NL ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP Award under his belt.
Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Dodgers and Kershaw had reached an agreement. The Athletic’s Andy McCullough reported the presence of a 2025 player option. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the terms of the deal.
NL West Notes: Kershaw, Peralta, Baker
Longtime face of the franchise Clayton Kershaw reunited with the Dodgers earlier this week on a two-year deal, ending the uncertainty that lingered surrounding the southpaw’s future throughout the offseason. Kershaw recently spoke to reporters, including Juan Toribio of MLB.com, regarding the difficult decisions he had to make this offseason regarding surgery and his future as a player.
As relayed by Toribio, Kershaw noted that thoughts of retirement weighed heavily on him for the first time in his career, and that he took his time deciding whether or not to undergo shoulder surgery, which he indicated was necessary to continue his career but wouldn’t have been required from him to partake in day-to-day activities such as catch with his children. Toribio added that Kershaw’s difficult start against the Diamondbacks during Game 1 of the NLDS, where he surrendered six runs while recording just one out, played a role in the southpaw’s decision to return to the Dodgers for a 17th season in the majors.
Toribio indicates that potentially parting ways with the only club he’s pitched for as a professional and pitching for his hometown Rangers held some appeal for Kershaw, but that ultimately the Dodgers’ flurry of activity this offseason played a role in convincing the veteran lefty to remain in L.A. for the 2024 campaign.
“This offseason has been pretty amazing to watch, honestly. There’s definitely a part of me that wanted to be a part of that,” Kershaw told reporters, as relayed by Toribio.
Kershaw isn’t expected to return to a big league mound until the late summer, with Toribio noting that “sometime in July” is the earliest he could pitch for L.A. in 2024. The left-hander is currently slated to ramp his throwing progression up sometime next month and will join the team on homestands during his rehab. The club’s offseason overhaul of their pitching staff leaves them with plenty of options to hold down the fort in the starting rotation during Kershaw’s absence. Though right-hander Walker Buehler is expected to start the season on the injured list, offseason additions Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and James Paxton are currently slated to pitch in the rotation alongside sophomore righty Bobby Miller and an addition young arm such as Emmet Sheehan or Gavin Stone come the start of the regular season.
More from around the NL West…
- The Padres brought in left-hander Wandy Peralta on a four-year deal earlier this week, but The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that this is hardly the first time the club has pursued the veteran southpaw. According to Lin, San Diego’s interest in Peralta dates back to the 2023 trade deadline. At the time, the lefty was subject to some trade speculation as the Yankees toyed with dealing pending free agents due to them sitting at fifth place in the AL East at the time of the trade deadline despite a decent 55-51 record. Ultimately, of course, no deal came together for the lefty, who went on to struggle to a 4.30 ERA and 6.46 FIP down the stretch last year. Looking ahead to 2024, Peralta figures to be part of San Diego’s late inning mix alongside the likes of Yuki Matsui and Robert Suarez as the bullpen looks to bounce back from the loss of Josh Hader earlier this winter.
- The Giants hired recently-retired Astros manager Dusty Baker in a special assistant role last month, and the longtime skipper spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) in Houston recently about his move to San Francisco. Baker indicated that while Houston remains a “second home” to him, a key factor in his decision to join the Giants is the club’s proximity to Sacramento, his hometown. “Getting older, you start thinking about enjoying your life, enjoying your grandchildren,” Baker said, as relayed by McTaggart. “But I still have something, you know, to give to the game and make a living in a part-time capacity.” Baker’s hiring in San Francisco is a homecoming in more ways than one, as he served as manager of the Giants for ten seasons, from 1993 to 2002. He won three NL Manager of the Year awards throughout his tenure with the Giants and led the team to a World Series appearance in his final year with the club.
Yankees, Dodgers Had Interest In Josh Hader Prior To Astros Deal
New Astros relief ace Josh Hader made an appearance on Foul Territory earlier this week during which he discussed his free agency and some of the other teams that pursued him prior to him signing in Houston on a five-year deal last month. Among those teams, Hader noted, were the Dodgers and Yankees. Hader went on to indicate that while those clubs weren’t the only ones to express interest in him throughout the offseason, no other suitor matched the aggressiveness of the Astros, whose $95MM offer broke the record for present-day value for a relief pitcher.
It’s hardly a shock that the Dodgers and Yankees both checked in on the 29-year-old hurler this winter. A five-time All Star and three-time NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader broke into the majors with the Brewers in 2017 and posted a dominant 2.08 ERA across 47 2/3 innings of work during that rookie campaign. The lefty hasn’t looked back since and has posted an incredible 2.50 ERA and 2.73 FIP while collecting 165 saves across 349 appearances during his career. Hader leads all relievers with an incredible 42.2% strikeout rate since his career began back in 2017, and is coming off an otherworldly platform season where he posted a microscopic 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances.
Both clubs were known to be interested in adding relief help this winter and certainly had the financial resources available to get a deal done, though they ultimately opted to look elsewhere rather than offer Hader the sort of nine-figure deal that would’ve topped Houston’s offer. Hader’s deal with the Astros served as a catalyst for the rest of the high-leverage relief market, and upwards of a dozen bullpen arms with late-inning experience have come off the market since then including the likes of Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, and David Robertson. In that frenzy of activity, the Dodgers came away with right-hander Ryan Brasier, who dominated to a 0.70 ERA in 39 appearances with the club last year. Meanwhile, the Yankees swung a deal to acquire southpaw Caleb Ferguson from L.A. on the same day the Dodgers landed Brasier.
Both Brasier and Ferguson are quality arms with plenty of late-inning experience under their belts, though neither has the sort of pedigree offered by Hader. While it’s not impossible to imagine either club making another addition to their relief mix before Opening Day, the surefire options still available in free agency are somewhat few and far between. Former Astros right-hander Ryne Stanek is among the options remaining and sports a solid 2.90 ERA over the last three seasons, though the market is largely dominated by bounceback candidates such as Brad Hand and Mychal Givens at this stage of the offseason.
Should either the Dodgers or Yankees decide to further bolster their relief corps in the coming weeks, one possible option who still lingers on the market would be Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen, who the club has reportedly shown a willingness to shop this winter. The Dodgers were connected to Jansen, who spent the first twelve seasons of his career with the club before signing with the Braves prior to the 2022 season, earlier in the offseason. The same can’t be said of the Yankees, though it is worth pointing out that the longtime AL East rivals have shown an increased willingness to trade with each other in recent years, including a deal that sent Alex Verdugo to the Bronx earlier this winter. As a 14-year MLB veteran with 420 career saves and a 3.63 ERA across 51 appearances in Boston last year, Jansen would provide an upgrade to the relief mix of either club, though he’s owed a hefty $16MM in the final year of his contract this season.
James Paxton Discusses Dodgers Contract, Physical
Newly-signed Dodgers southpaw James Paxton spoke to reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) today regarding his recent one-year deal with the club and the physical he underwent that led to the lefty’s guarantee dropping from $11MM to just $7MM on the deal. Paxton noted during the scrum that the reduction in the contract’s guarantee wasn’t due to any one specific injury concern the Dodgers had but instead was due to the combination of his history with Tommy John surgery, which kept him away from a big league mound for almost two entire seasons, and the knee issue that ended his 2023 campaign in early September.
“I’m an older player now, and I’m not perfect anymore,” Paxton told reporters, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “…So there’s things that have kind of built up over the years.”
In spite of the concerns that stemmed from his physical, Paxton indicated that he has “no doubt” that he’ll be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign, adding that he feels “strong and ready” as he enters camp. Per his revised, incentive-laden deal, Paxton will receive a $2MM bonus for being on the roster for either the start of the Korea series against the Padres, which begins on March 20, or the club’s stateside opener against the Cardinals the following week.
Paxton, 35, has been held back by injuries frequently throughout his career. Drafted by the Blue Jays with the 37th overall selection in the 2009 draft, the southpaw made his big league debut as a member of the Mariners back in 2013 and immediately impressed with a 1.50 ERA in a four-start cup of coffee. Through his age-30 season, Paxton regularly impressed when he was on the mound, showing the quality results of a #2 starter with a 3.50 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 26.5% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, Paxton was limited to just 733 innings of work across those seven seasons by injury woes, which would only intensify as the calendar flipped to 2020. From 2020-22, Paxton managed just six appearances and 21 2/3 innings due to injuries.
The big lefty returned to the mound as a member of the Red Sox in May of last year and early in the season appeared to have made a triumphant return to the dominant form of his younger days. Through his first ten starts of the season, Paxton posted an impressive 2.73 ERA over 56 innings of work with a whopping 29% strikeout rate. Unfortunately, the wheels came off for the veteran southpaw after the All Star break as he struggled to a 6.98 ERA and 6.16 FIP in 40 innings of work across his final nine starts of the season before he was shut down for the season with the aforementioned bout of knee inflammation following a start where Paxton allowed six runs while recording just four outs.
After that brutal series of struggles down the stretch, Paxton finished the 2023 campaign with a 4.50 ERA that was almost exactly league average by measure of ERA+. While the form the lefty flashed early in the season with Boston last year would make him a playoff-caliber arm, Paxton need only repeat his full-season performance from 2023 to be a useful piece for a Dodgers club looking to add veteran innings to a rotation that figures to be dominated by young starters with little to no big league experience like Bobby Miller and Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as players with substantial injury histories of their own like Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, and Walker Buehler.
That rotation mix offers little in the way of certainty, but young arms like Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and Michael Grove appear well-positioned to help out as needed throughout the season. An opportunity seems likely to be immediately available for those youngsters as both Buehler and Kershaw are expected to open the season on the injured list, though club officials have indicated that Buehler’s stay on the shelf could be a relatively short one.
Dodgers Sign Ryan Brasier To Two-Year Deal
February 8: Los Angeles announced Brasier’s deal and placed Dustin May on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. The righty is working back from a flexor tendon procedure last July and isn’t expected back until midseason.
February 5: The Dodgers announced they have signed right-hander Ryan Brasier to a two-year deal worth $9MM. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Dodgers were signing Brasier. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first had the two-year, $9MM framework added the possibility for Brasier to earn a total of $13MM via incentives. Brasier is represented by the ALIGND Sports Agency.
Brasier, 36, has had an inconsistent career and that was reflected in his 2023 season. The year began with the Red Sox but he was lit up in his first 20 outings of the year, allowing 7.29 earned runs per nine innings. He likely didn’t deserve such an unsightly number, as his .344 batting average on balls in play and 52.8% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average. But his 18.9% strikeout rate was still subpar and the Sox decided to move on, releasing Brasier in May.
He landed a minor league deal with the Dodgers but was added to their roster a couple of weeks later, which gave him the chance to turn his season around. He made 39 appearances for the Dodgers with a miniscule ERA of 0.70. Part of that was a reversal of fortune from the baseball gods, as his BABIP dropped to .183 and his strand rate jumped to 83.3% with his new club. But it wasn’t just luck, as his punchouts jumped to 26.6%, his walk rate dipped from 9.5% to 7% and his ground ball rate climbed from 33.3% to 51.1%. He earned enough trust with the Dodgers to earn a save and nine holds, as well as a postseason roster spot.
That capriciousness didn’t come out of nowhere. Since returning from a stint in Japan by joining the Red Sox in 2018, Brasier has often oscillated between total dominance and apparent struggles. He posted a 1.60 ERA in that 2018 season and continued pitching well through Boston’s World Series run, but then his ERA jumped to 4.85 in 2019. His results improved in the shortened 2020 season but then a left calf strain limited him to just 12 innings in 2021. In 2022, his ERA spiked all the way to 5.78, though that could have been another instance of poor fortune with his BABIP at .335 and his strand rate at 56.2%.
The Dodgers will take a shot on Brasier, banking on the belief that most of his struggles were not of his own doing. In 268 career appearances in the big leagues, he has a 3.88 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 39.8% ground ball rate.
The Dodgers are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax in 2024 and have already blown past the top tier with their incredibly aggressive offseason. Thanks to mega deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as contracts for Teoscar Hernández and James Paxton, their CBT number is now pegged by Roster Resource at $310MM. That’s well beyond the $297MM top tier and comes with a 110% tax rate, meaning the club will be paying more than twice the amount that Brasier will actually receive.
Brasier will jump into the mix for high-leverage relief work with the Dodgers alongside guys like Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Joe Kelly.
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
28 out of the 30 clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, with the Padres and Braves the only exceptions. That means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days.
Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, as the 60-day injured list comes back when pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, having gone away shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. This year, the Dodgers and Padres will have an earlier reporting date, due to their earlier Opening Day. Most clubs will begin their 2024 campaign on March 28, but those two clubs are playing a pair of games in Seoul on March 20 and 21. The official 60-day IL dates, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post, are February 8 for the Dodgers, February 11 for the Padres and February 14 for every other club. It’s fairly moot for the Padres since they only have 36 players on their 40-man roster right now, but the Dodgers could be moving guys to the IL as soon as today.
It’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. Transferring a player to the 60-day IL also requires a corresponding move, so a club can’t just make the move in isolation.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall, Brandon Belt and many more. A player like Brandon Woodruff, who is expected to miss significant time and will need an IL spot himself, might be better able to secure a deal once IL spots open up. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.
NL West
Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson
Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. He will almost certainly spend the entire 2024 season on the IL.
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Nick Frasso
Kershaw is not officially signed yet, with his physical reportedly taking place today. It doesn’t seem as though it’s a coincidence that today is the first day the club can move players to the IL. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and not expected back until late in the summer. Gonsolin underwent Tommy John surgery in August and may miss the entire campaign. May had surgery in July to repair his flexor tendon as well as a Tommy John revision. He is expected to return at some point midseason. Frasso underwent labrum surgery in November and may miss the entire season.
Giants: Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb
The Giants acquired Ray from the Mariners in a trade last month, knowing full well that he underwent Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair in May of last year. He recently said that a return around the All-Star break would be a best-case scenario. Cobb underwent hip surgery in October and isn’t expected back until May at the earliest. His is a more of a borderline case since placing him on the IL would prevent him from returning until late May.
Padres: Tucupita Marcano
Marcano underwent ACL surgery in August of last year while with the Pirates. The Padres claimed him off waivers from the Bucs in November. Recovering from an ACL surgery usually takes about a year or so, meaning Marcano is likely to miss a decent chunk of the upcoming campaign. But as mentioned earlier, the Friars only have 36 players on their 40-man right now, meaning there’s no rush to get Marcano to the IL and open up a roster spot.
Rockies: Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Lucas Gilbreath
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Gilbreath may be the closest to returning, as he went under the knife back in March. Márquez and Senzatela underwent their surgeries in May and July, respectively. General manager Bill Schmidt said recently that the club is hopeful Márquez can be back after the All-Star break but is anticipating Senzatela to miss the whole campaign.
NL Central
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: None.
Pirates: JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodríguez,
Brubaker and Burrows both underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. It’s possible they could be ready to go early in the upcoming season, as some pitchers return around a year after going under the knife. But most pitchers take 14 months or longer so their respective rehabs may push deeper into the upcoming season. Oviedo also underwent TJS but his was in November, meaning he’ll certainly miss the entire 2024 season. The same goes for Rodríguez, who underwent UCL/flexor tendon surgery in December.
Reds: None.
NL East
Braves: Ian Anderson, Penn Murfee, Ángel Perdomo
Anderson underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was on optional assignment at the time and spent the whole year on the minor league injured list. He could be placed on the major league IL this year if the club needs a roster spot, but they only have 37 guys on the 40-man as of today. Murfee underwent UCL surgery while with the Mariners in June of last year. The Braves signed him to a split deal even though he isn’t likely to be a factor until midseason. Perdomo also got a split deal despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in October of last year, meaning he will miss all of 2024. Since Murfee and Perdomo signed split deals, the club might try to pass them through waivers at some point rather than transferring them to the IL.
Marlins: Sandy Alcántara
Alcántara underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will have to miss the entire 2024 season.
Mets: Ronny Mauricio, David Peterson
Mauricio just suffered a torn ACL in December and will almost certainly miss the entire 2024 season. Peterson underwent hip surgery in November with a recovery timeline of six to seven months, meaning he won’t be able to return until May or June.
Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Cade Cavalli, Zach Brzykcy
By all accounts, Strasburg will never be able to return to the mound due to nerve damage stemming from his battle with thoracic outlet syndrome. He and the Nats had a deal for him to retire but it reportedly fell apart due to some sort of squabble about his contract. His deal runs through 2026 and he may spend the next three years on the IL unless those retirement talks can be revamped. Cavalli had Tommy John surgery in March of last year, so he could return relatively early in the upcoming campaign. The Nats will probably only move him to the 60-day IL if they don’t think he can return before June. Brzykcy underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was added to the club’s roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
Phillies: None.
AL West
Angels: José Quijada
Quijada underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will miss some portion of the 2024 season. He’ll likely wind up on the 60-day IL unless the club expects him back within about a year of going under the knife.
Astros: Kendall Graveman, Luis García, Lance McCullers Jr.
Graveman recently underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season. García underwent Tommy John surgery in May of last year and will have to at least miss some of the upcoming campaign. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend upon how his rehab is progressing. McCullers underwent flexor tendon surgery in June and isn’t expected back until late in the summer.
Athletics: Ken Waldichuk
In December, it was reported that Waldichuk is rehabbing from a flexor strain and UCL sprain. He and the club opted for a non-surgical approach involving a Tenex procedure and PRP injection. As of reporting from this weekend, he still hasn’t begun throwing. His situation will likely be monitored in the spring to see how his rehab proceeds.
Mariners: None.
Rangers: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Carson Coleman
deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is targeting a return this August. Mahle underwent the same procedure in May and the Rangers signed him to a two-year deal, knowing he likely won’t be able to return until midseason in 2024. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and won’t be able to return until June or July. Coleman was a Rule 5 selection of the Rangers, taken from the Yankees. He had Tommy John in April of last year and will likely still be rehabbing for the early parts of the upcoming campaign.
AL Central
Guardians: Daniel Espino
Espino underwent shoulder surgery in May of last year with an estimated recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. He was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
Royals: Kris Bubic, Kyle Wright, Josh Taylor
Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will have to miss at least some of the 2024 season. Whether he winds up on the 60-day IL or not will depend if the club thinks he can return before June. Wright underwent shoulder surgery while with Atlanta last year and will miss all of 2024. The Royals acquired him in a trade, hoping for a return to health in 2025 and beyond. Taylor was already on the IL due to a shoulder impingement in June of last year when he required surgery on a herniated disc in his lower back. His current status isn’t publicly known.
Tigers: None.
Twins: Josh Staumont
Staumont underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July of last year while with the Royals. He was non-tendered by the Royals and then signed by the Twins. His recovery timeline is unclear at the moment.
White Sox: Matt Foster, Davis Martin
Both of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery last year, Foster in April and Martin in May. They could perhaps return early in the season if their rehabs go especially well, but they also might need to continue rehabbing until midseason.
AL East
Blue Jays: None.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October of last year and will miss the entire 2024 season.
Rays: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Taylor Walls
Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He could be a factor in the early months of the season if his rehab is going well, as some pitchers can return after about a year, but he also may need a bit more time. McClanahan underwent the same procedure but in August and will likely miss the entirety of the upcoming season. Rasmussen was dealing with a flexor strain last year and underwent an internal brace procedure in July, which will keep him out until midseason. Walls underwent hip surgery in October and is more up in the air as there’s a chance he’s ready as soon as Opening Day, depending on how his rehab goes.
Red Sox: None.
Yankees: Jasson Domínguez
Domínguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year. The return for hitters is generally shorter than pitchers, but the Yanks estimated his return timeline as 9-10 months, which will still keep him on the shelf until midseason.
Dodgers, Chris Owings Agree To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers signed veteran utilityman Chris Owings to a minor league contract with an invitation to big league spring training, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Owings, an ACES client, has already arrived at Dodgers’ camp today, he adds.
Though he’s appeared in each of the past 11 MLB seasons, Owings is still just 32 years old and won’t turn 33 until mid-August. He suited up for 11 games with the Pirates in 2023 — his sixth MLB club — and appeared in 11 games. Owings went 4-for-25 (all singles) with a dozen strikeouts and no walks. He fared better with the Bucs’ Triple-A club, slashing .241/.349/.449 with 15 homers in 371 trips to the plate.
Owings is a career .239/.286/.364 hitter in 2489 MLB plate appearances. He’s played every position on the diamond other than catcher and first base, though the bulk of his career has been spent as a middle infielder.
Given the infield depth the Dodgers possess already, it seems like Owings will wind up being stashed as a depth piece in Triple-A (or perhaps catching on with another club later in spring). Los Angeles has Freddie Freeman at first base, Mookie Betts at second base, a returning Gavin Lux at shortstop and Max Muncy at the hot corner. Veterans Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas offer versatile options from the bench, and former top prospect Miguel Vargas remains on the 40-man roster as an option who’s likely ticketed for regular at-bats in Triple-A to begin the season.
Yankees Acquire Caleb Ferguson From Dodgers
The Dodgers and Yankees swapped left-handed relievers on Monday. New York acquired Caleb Ferguson for Matt Gage and minor league right-hander Christian Zazueta.
Ferguson, 27, joins a new organization for the first time in his career. He was drafted by the Dodgers in 2014 and has been with them ever since. He made his debut in 2018, starting his first three major league outings before being moved to a relief role. Apart from some occasional starts as an opener, he’s stayed in the bullpen ever since.
The results have been quite strong, with Ferguson making 96 appearances from 2018 to 2020, tossing 112 1/3 innings while allowing 3.93 earned runs per nine. He struck out 29.1% of batters faced in that time, gave out walks at an 8.7% clip and kept 44% of batted balls on the ground. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in September of 2020, wiping out the remainder of that campaign and preventing him from pitching at all in 2021.
He has since returned to the mound and has produced fairly similar statistics to before his injury layoff. In 126 appearances over 2022 and 2023, he has 113 2/3 innings pitched with a 2.85 ERA. He struck out 27.5% of opponents in that time, walking 8.8% of them and getting grounders at a 48% clip. Those results have come with Ferguson moving to higher leverage appearances, as he earned seven holds in 2022 and 17 last year.
He is now in his final season of club control, slated for free agency after the upcoming season in which he’ll make a salary of $2.4MM. This is the second left-handed reliever that has gone from the Dodgers to the Yankees this offseason, with Victor González having been dealt to the Bronx in December.
The Yankees have used Wandy Peralta as their primary lefty out of the bullpen in recent years, but he became a free agent this offseason and signed with the Padres last week. They now have Ferguson and González as their top southpaw relievers, alongside righties Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga and Tommy Kahnle.
Gage, 31 next week, will give the Dodgers another lefty to replace Ferguson, but one with a more limited track record. Gage has made 16 big league appearances over the past two years, suiting up for the Astros and Blue Jays, with a 1.83 ERA in a tiny sample of 19 2/3 innings. He spent most of last year’s with Houston’s Triple-A club, tossing 37 1/3 innings at that level with a 4.58 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 12% walk rate and 41.5% ground ball rate. New York claimed him off waivers from the Astros last week.
For now, it appears the trade will be 40-man neutral. By sending Gage to the Dodgers, the Yanks opened up a 40-man spot for Ferguson. The Dodgers are also reportedly signing Ryan Brasier, so they will still need to open a spot for him but could perhaps do so by designating Gage or some other player for assignment.
For the Yanks, they upgrade their bullpen for the 2024 season while giving up a bit of future value in Zazueta, a 19-year-old who posted a 3.29 ERA in the DSL last year. The Dodgers, meanwhile, were going to be facing a roster squeeze with the Brasier signing and have used one year of Ferguson’s services to give them an extra prospect and some more roster flexibility. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pursue a different lefty at this point, as they are now down to Alex Vesia, Ryan Yarbrough and Gage as their southpaw relievers.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Yankees were acquiring Ferguson. The Post’s Joel Sherman reported the Dodgers were acquiring two players, one in the upper minors and one nowhere near the majors. Heyman reported Gage’s inclusion.
Dodgers “Looked Into” Trades For Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo
While the highlight of the Dodgers’ offseason is of course the signing of superstar Shohei Ohtani, the club has worked hard to overhaul its starting rotation after the unit struggled to a collective 4.57 ERA last year, a figure that ranked 20th among major league clubs. They’ve been very successful in that regard, signing NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto while dealing for and extending right-hander Tyler Glasnow. The club appears to have recently rounded out its rotation mix (give or take a possible reunion with long-time franchise face Clayton Kershaw) with the addition of veteran southpaw James Paxton, though MLB.com’s Juan Toribio recently reported that the club recently looked into making a bigger splash even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow.
Per Toribio, the club “looked into” trades for Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Jesus Luzardo in the aftermath of the club adding Yamamoto and Glasnow back in December. Since then, Burnes has been dealt to the Orioles while Cease appears increasingly unlikely to move before Opening Day after being frequently connected to the Dodgers earlier in the offseason. Bieber and Luzardo, on the other hand, had not yet been publicly connected to the Dodgers this winter. It’s unclear if the Dodgers retain interest in either hurler with Paxton now on board, but either would certainly be an intriguing addition for the league’s most aggressive club this winter.
Bieber, 28, is coming off a down season relative to his own lofty standards as he posted a 3.80 ERA and 3.87 FIP while being limited to just 21 starts by a bout of elbow inflammation. Still, the two-time All Star and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has been among the best pitchers in the league over the past half decade, with a 3.07 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 114 appearances dating back to the 2019 season and would figure to improve virtually any rotation if traded for, including that of the Dodgers. Bieber has also indicated a willingness to negotiate an extension with his new club in the event that he’s traded, meaning its feasible that a trade could net the Dodgers a longer-term asset than Bieber’s one year of team control would otherwise imply.
While the Guardians figure to attempt to remain competitive in a weak AL Central division this year, they’ve shown a propensity for dealing star players elsewhere before they reach free agency as demonstrated by deals shipping out players such as Corey Kluber and Francisco Lindor. What’s more, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reported back in December that the Guardians are unlikely to increase payroll above last year’s levels in 2024, leaving them with little room to upgrade their flawed positional mix without shedding salary or trading an asset. A Bieber deal would allow the club to accomplish both of those goals, potential adding a hitter as part of the return for the right-hander while also freeing up $13.125MM in the club’s budget for other additions.
Luzardo, 26, struggled early in his career as a member of the A’s but has flourished in the years since he was acquired by Miami. In the past two years, Luzardo has made 50 starts to the tune of a 3.52 ERA with a 3.40 FIP. The 26-year-old southpaw has struck out an impressive 28.7% of batters faced during that time while walking 7.9%, establishing himself as the #2 starter in Miami behind ace Sandy Alcantara. With Alcantara expected to miss the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, however, Luzardo is currently penciled in as the staff ace ahead of the likes of Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and Edward Cabrera. Important as Luzardo may be to Miami’s rotation entering 2024, the club is nonetheless reportedly open to dealing him or another piece from the rotation, with only Perez reportedly untouchable in trade talks. Luzardo is under team control through the 2026 season.
While the addition of either Luzardo or Bieber would certainly bolster an already impressive Dodgers rotation, their recent addition of Paxton along with the uncertainty surrounding Kershaw’s future with the club leaves how an additional starter would fit into L.A.’s rotation puzzle questionable. On paper, the club’s rotation appears to be full as things stand with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Paxton joining Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Talented as that group of five is, however, there’s plenty of questions surrounding that group’s durability. Glasnow and Paxton both have lengthy injury histories, Yamamoto has spent his career to this point pitching just once a week overseas, and Miller’s 138 2/3 innings of work last year between the majors and minors was a career high. Meanwhile, Buehler is coming off more than a season lost due to Tommy John surgery and even Kershaw, if brought back into the fold, isn’t expected to pitch until August as he rehabs from shoulder surgery.
While youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone could certainly contribute meaningful innings to help the Dodgers overcome the lack of certainty in their rotation mix, the addition of a surefire starting arm such as Bieber or Luzardo could help solidify the club’s overall rotation mix headed into the season. While all evidence points to the club planning on a five-man rotation this season, it’s possible the Dodgers could be more amenable to the idea of using a sixth starter throughout the season given the fact that they’ll be forced to implement a six-man staff when Ohtani returns to the mound next year.
The Dodgers are far from the only club that may be interested in the services of Luzardo or Bieber, of course; the Yankees expressed interest in both arms last month. Earlier in the offseason, the Marlins and Royals reportedly discussed a deal involving Luzardo and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, while Bieber reportedly drew interest from teams such as the Cubs and Reds.
Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes Discusses Kershaw, Injuries
Dodgers fans enjoyed the club’s annual FanFest today, and among the festivities were comments from GM Brandon Gomes as well as several players. In addition to providing a handful of injury updates, Gomes discussed the future of longtime franchise face and generational hurler Clayton Kershaw during the event.
As relayed by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, Gomes told reporters that the door remains open for Kershaw to return to the only club he’s known throughout his illustrious 18-season professional career even after the Dodgers have spent the offseason completely retooling their rotation mix with the additions of right-handers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow as well as the more recent pickup of veteran southpaw James Paxton. Kershaw has long been expected to choose between either staying with the Dodgers or joining his hometown Rangers on the heels of the first World Series championship in franchise history, with ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez indicating that the expectation is that he’ll eventually sign a two-year deal with one of the two clubs.
“We continue to stay in touch with Clayton,” Gomes said (as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register), “and we’ll progress.”
Kershaw, of course, is among the greatest starters in MLB history. The southpaw has ten All Star appearances, three Cy Young awards, and an MVP award on his mantel and is just 66 batters set down away from 3,000 career strikeouts. Dominant as he’s been throughout his entire career, it’s worth noting that the lefty battled through injury in the second half last year. While he managed a sterling 2.23 ERA in that time, he struck out just 22.2% of batters faced in his final eight starts of the regular season while issuing free passes at an uncharacteristic 11.1% clip and never throwing more than 66 pitches during a start. The lefty’s 2023 season came to a close with a disastrous performance in Game 1 of the NLDS where he allowed six runs while recording just one out.
Shortly after the season wrapped up, Kershaw announced that he had undergone surgery on the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. At the time, Kershaw said that he hoped to return “sometime” during the summer of 2024 before indicating back in December that his recovery process was going “really well.” While there have been no updates to the contrary to this point, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio recently offered a more specific timeline for Kershaw’s return to the mound, reporting that the lefty isn’t expected to pitch in the majors until “at least August.” That timeline is on the later end of the summer estimate provided at the time of Kershaw’s surgery, but would still give the lefty ample time to gear up for another crack at the postseason.
Given Kershaw’s lengthy timeline for return, it’s not necessarily surprising that neither side appears to have much urgency in putting pen to paper. Plunkett noted that the Dodgers will be able to put players who expected to miss at least the first two months of the season onto the 60-day IL, thus opening up their 40-man roster spot for the duration of their injury, starting on February 8. With that date less than a week away, it’s hard to imagine Kershaw being officially added to the roster- and thus requiring a corresponding 40-man move- before then, though it’s certainly possible Kershaw’s free agency could extend well beyond that date as well.
Setting aside Kershaw, Gomes made note of one hurler already under contract who’s poised to start the season on the shelf: right-hander Walker Buehler. The GM noted (as relayed by Plunkett) that Buehler’s return to a major league mound for the first time since June of 2022 will be “slow-played”, with both Gomes himself and (per Ardaya) manager Dave Roberts indicating that the righty is likely to start his 2024 campaign late. With that being said, Gomes makes clear that Buehler is not currently a candidate to start the season on the 60-day IL, indicating the club could stand to welcome Buehler back into the rotation mix fairly early into the 2024 campaign.
That the club might look to delay Buehler’s start to the season is hardly a surprise, given comments last month from Gomes noting that the Dodgers would be on a “flexible” innings limit of some sort throughout the year with an eye toward ensuring he’s available for the stretch run and a potential postseason push. It’s understandable that the Dodgers would place a premium on ensuring Buehler is healthy, as the right-hander was among the best starting pitchers in the league from 2018 to 2021, when he posted an excellent 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP across 564 innings of work. In the meantime, Buehler’s absence at the start of the season figures to open up a spot in the club’s Opening Day rotation alongside Yamamoto, Glasnow, Paxton, and sophomore righty Bobby Miller for one of the club’s young arms such as Emmet Sheehan or Gavin Stone.
In terms of more positive injury updates, Gomes told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that infielder Gavin Lux is fully ready for Spring Training after missing the entire 2023 campaign due to a torn ACL suffered last February, while superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani has begun hitting although he has yet to resume throwing after undergoing elbow surgery back in September. Gonzalez adds that Ohtani himself told reporters that he is “very confident” he’ll be in the lineup on Opening Day, setting the stage for the international superstar to appear in the club’s March 20 game against the Padres in South Korea.
DiGiovanna also notes that Gomes expressed optimism regarding veteran right-hander Blake Treinen, who the GM said is “trending” towards a return after missing the entire 2023 campaign and throwing just five innings during the 2022 season. Treinen sports a sterling 2.49 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 229 appearances dating back to the 2018 season, and figures to be a key piece of the club’s bullpen if he manages to make a healthy return to the mound. That being said, the potential return of Treinen hasn’t stopped the Dodgers from pursuing bullpen additions this winter.