Marlins closer Tanner Scott has already been drawing trade interest for several weeks, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Orioles as just some of the many teams showing interest in the hard-throwing lefty. Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic suggested this morning that Scott could be the next notable name to be moved — although that doesn’t necessarily indicate a trade of Scott is nearing the finish line. But the Marlins already showed their willingness to act early on the trade market when they moved Luis Arraez just five weeks into the season, and power bullpen arms are among the most sought-after commodities on the trade market every year.
That said, Scott alone isn’t likely to fetch the Marlins a sizable haul on his own. He clearly has trade value and should net some minor league talent, but the 29-year-old southpaw is in his final season of club control and will reach free agency at season’s end. The Marlins were willing to pay down nearly all of Arraez’s contract in their trade with the Padres, and doing so on Scott’s $5.7MM salary could help to enhance his appeal, but there are concerns even beyond the southpaw’s dwindling club control.
Command has always been an issue for the hard-throwing Scott, and 2024 is no exception. Quite the opposite, in fact. This year’s 16.8% walk rate is the highest of Scott’s career (excepting a 1 2/3-inning debut back in 2017). As noted here back in late May, he’s been slowly paring that number back since issuing an alarming swath of walks early in the season, but Scott has still walked 12% of his hitters dating back to May 1.
That’s not as troubling as a nearly 17% mark, but it’s still three percentage points higher than the average reliever — and the gap between that mark and last year’s career-best 7.8% mark is even wider. Scott has also seen his swinging-strike rate drop from a mammoth 17.4% in 2023 to 13.5% this year, while his opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate has fallen from 36.1% to 28.8% — a possible indicator that he’s missing by a much larger margin when he’s failing to find the strike zone.
To Scott’s credit, he’s been on an exceptional run of late. He surrendered a walk-off home run to Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez yesterday, but those two runs were the first he’d allowed since April 30. Dating back to May 1, Scott has a minuscule 1.17 earned run average and huge 32.8% strikeout rate in 15 1/3 innings. Overall, the lefty touts a 1.93 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 52.5% grounder rate in 28 innings this year (in addition to that bloated 16.8% walk rate). He’s also averaging 96.9 mph on his heater.
Scott’s trade value would surely have been higher in the offseason, when he had a full year of club control and was fresh off a 33.9% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate in a career-high 78 innings. But the Marlins made the playoffs last year, and even after turning over their front office and largely idling throughout the winter, presumably wanted to see if the team could play its way back into postseason contention. A catastrophic 1-11 start to the season emphatically answered that question.
The Marlins could potentially package Scott with another trade candidate, such as coveted starter Jesus Luzardo, and look to extract a huge package by combining two sought-after players in a single trade. They could also hope that by moving Scott early, they can catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner that the Royals did last summer by moving Aroldis Chapman in late June — a trade that netted them current No. 1 starter Cole Ragans. (To be clear, Ragans was seen as a buy-low candidate at the time, and the Royals deserve credit for completely turning the former first-round pick’s career around.) Hitting that kind of jackpot almost certainly won’t happen, but that trade is illustrative of the fact that Miami could potentially get some MLB-ready help in return for Scott — provided the player in question is viewed as something of a project.
With regard to the teams linked to Scott, any of the bunch is a sensible target. The Yankees load up on bullpen arms every deadline they’re in contention, and they’ve regularly shown an affinity for ground-ball pitchers and power lefties. Scott checks both boxes. The Orioles know Scott better than any team in the game, having originally drafted and developed him — only to trade him to Miami in a deal they’d like to take back (Kevin Guerrero and Antonio Velez went to Baltimore in the deal). Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is always intrigued by high-end velocity and doesn’t need much help in the rotation right now, making a deeper bullpen a logical focus. The Dodgers have several notable relievers on the injured list at the moment (Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier) and lack this type of flamethrowing left-handed presence in their current bullpen.
There’s some overlap between the clubs eyeing Scott and those reportedly eyeing White Sox closer Michael Kopech, which is only natural. Playoff hopefuls always look to beef up the relief corps around the trade deadline, and with so few sellers on the market at the moment, the few teams that are willing to deal should see increased demand.
