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Mets Rotation Update

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A month ago, the New York Mets made the bold move to transition two of their highest-volume relievers to the rotation. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo each came to the majors with expectations of starting, but after years of working effectively out of the bullpen, the Mets gambled by moving the pair back to the rotation mid-season. The experiment is over for Gsellman, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.

Gsellman’s longest outing was a 4-inning stint in which he allowed one run while striking out four and walking none. While the Mets eventually lost that game 2-1, it was the only game of the four Gsellman started that went that way. Still, short outings and an 8.68 ERA suggest Gsellman is better suited to returning to his usual role in the bullpen, where the Mets rank 11th as a team by ERA and 12th by FIP.

Besides, the Mets’ rotation is full again with ace Jacob deGrom followed by Rick Porcello, David Peterson, and Michael Wacha. The 25-year-old Peterson has been a pleasant surprise, going 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA/4.02 FIP. His emergence has been especially important considering the de-evolution and subsequent injured list stint for fellow southpaw Steven Matz. Matz slumped to a 0-4 mark with an unsightly 8.63 ERA/6.69 FIP before being placed on the injured list for shoulder bursitis.

The right-handed, non-deGrom, veteran division of the rotation – consisting of Porcello and Wacha – have produced subpar results by measure of ERA, but take a look at an ERA-indicator like FIP and you’ll find a much different story. Porcello boasts just a 1-4 record over 8 starts (39 innings) with a 5.54 ERA – but a 2.97 FIP. Wacha, similarly, has a horrid 7.20 ERA over 5 starts (20 innings) – but a much more respectable 4.40 FIP. Wacha in particular has shown an impressive 12.2 K/9, easily a career high, but he’s also surrendered 12.6 hits per nine innings, a mark that’s equally outside his career norms. A .429 BABIP against might be partially responsible for the discrepancy between FIP and ERA, giving the Mets cause to believe in their rotation over the season’s final three weeks.

Lugo will continue to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation. Long one of New York’s most reliable relievers, Lugo has continued to impress from the rotation. While no stranger to the rotation – Lugo made 31 starts from 2016 to 2018 – he worked exclusively out of the pen in 2019 for an identical 2.70 ERA/FIP across 61 appearances covering 80 innings. He’s been their most reliable bullpen arm in recent seasons, but having acquired Miguel Castro from the Orioles at the deadline and moving Gsellman back to the pen, the Mets are betting that they can afford to keep Lugo in the rotation for now. The 30-year-old has done an admirable job stretching himself to starter’s minutes, culminating in a 5-inning outing his last time out. In total, Lugo has a 1.54 ERA across 11 2/3 innings since moving to the rotation.

Mets Designate Juan Lagares For Assignment

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The Mets announced a series of roster moves to reporters Friday, designating outfielder Juan Lagares for assignment and reinstating righty Michael Wacha, shortstop Andres Gimenez and outfielder Jake Marisnick from the injured list (Twitter link via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). The team also placed righty Corey Oswalt on the 10-day IL due to biceps tendinitis, optioned right-hander Drew Smith to the alternate training site in Brooklyn and added catcher Patrick Mazeika as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader.

Lagares, 31, was a mainstay on the Mets’ roster from 2013-19 before his 2020 club option was declined at the beginning of this past offseason. He eventually inked a minor league contract with the Padres but elected free agency when the team didn’t include him in its player pool. Lagares wound up returning to the Mets organization and getting called up this week, but he appeared in just two games without taking a plate appearance prior to this DFA. The return of Marisnick, who had been on the injured list since July 28, likely made Marisnick expendable. Both are right-handed-hitting, glove-first outfielders.

Mets Place Michael Wacha On 10-Day IL

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The Mets announced that right-hander Michael Wacha has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder.  Catcher Ali Sanchez has been called up from the club’s alternate training site to take Wacha’s spot on the active roster.

After a strong debut start for New York on July 27, Wacha has struggled over his last two outings, and has an overall 6.43 ERA over his first 14 innings in a Mets uniform.  Despite a 3.60 K/BB rate, an 11.6 K/9, and some generally above-average Statcast numbers, Wacha has been hurt badly by the long ball, with three homers allowed over his 14 frames (1.9 HR/9).  The early returns suggest a troubling continuation of the homer problem that plagued Wacha last season, as his HR/9 went from 0.9 over the first six years of his career to a sudden 1.8 number in 2019.

Wacha’s absence leaves the Mets further short-handed in a rotation that already lost Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery last spring and Marcus Stroman to the injured list due to a tear in his calf muscle.  Mets manager Luis Rojas told the New York Post’s Mike Puma and other reporters that Stroman was still at least another simulated game away from returning, so there isn’t enough time for Stroman to be activated prior to Wednesday, when Wacha was scheduled to start.  Erasmo Ramirez, Corey Oswalt, Franklyn Kilome, and Ariel Jurado are all available at the Mets’ alternate training site as potential fill-ins, both for Wednesday or potentially longer if Stroman needs more time.

Quick Hits: Miller, Wacha, Expansion

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Some items from around the game…

  • Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller spoke to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about several topics, including the recent agreement between the league and players’ union about the 2020 season, how Miller is handling the shutdown, and the rather mysterious arm problem that sidelined Miller earlier this month.  “There are some explanations for some of what I’m going through and I have a lot of appreciation for the amount of time [Cardinals head athletic trainer] Adam Olsen and Dr. [Brian] Mahaffey have put in helping me to look for some answers,” Miller said.  Though there still isn’t an actual diagnosis of Miller’s issue, “I think I have answers that make a lot of sense and they’re not the type of thing that brings any sort of concern to my health and my livelihood.”  The southpaw is currently throwing, albeit under “not…ideal” circumstances working out at his home rather than in a normal training environment.
  • Michael Wacha turned to some offseason video analysis with his father to help solve mechanical problems from the 2019 season, which put him in a good place heading into his first Spring Training with the Mets, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes.  By the time Wacha met with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and assistant pitching coach Jeremy Accardo in camp, “they said my mechanical changes that I made over the offseason were exactly what they were going to be telling me,” Wacha said.  “Exactly the same type of information or helpful tips that they were trying to get me into, I already made them on my own.”  The early returns in Grapefruit League action were somewhat promising, as Wacha posted a 1.17 ERA over 7 2/3 innings, albeit with four walks against only five strikeouts.  However, Wacha also didn’t allow any home runs, which was a positive sign after an ugly 1.8 HR/9 helped push his ERA to 4.76 over 126 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.  Wacha signed a one-year, $3MM with the Mets in the offseason and now looks to be a member of their starting five, in the wake of Noah Syndergaard’s season-ending Tommy John surgery.
  • With league revenues bound to take a massive hit due to the shutdown, could expansion be an ideal way to inject some new money into the sport?  Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the question, noting that adding two new teams worth $750MM each (which is perhaps a conservative estimate for the price tag of a new club) in franchise fees would give each current team an extra $50MM in revenue.  Commissioner Rob Manfred has often said that the league would only consider increasing its membership after all of the current 30 teams (namely the A’s and Rays) had some type of plans in place for a new ballpark, and Edwards observes that the league hasn’t had any real financial incentive to expand in recent years.  Of course, the pandemic could now change that stance entirely, though Edwards also points out that the worldwide financial uncertainty caused by the ongoing crisis could lead to fewer potential owners willing meet the price for an expansion team, and cash-strapped cities will now have even less of a reason to spend resources on building a new stadium for a new team.

Pitcher Notes: Twins, Wacha, Mariners, A’s

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Veteran right-hander Jhoulys Chacin had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins at the outset of the month, but he may be impressing the club enough to end up on its season-opening roster. Manager Rocco Baldelli said (via the Star Tribune) that Chacin has “done everything he can to this point to put himself in position to eventually win a spot.” As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored earlier this week, the 32-year-old Chacin is one of a few candidates in the running. Lefty Lewis Thorpe is also in the mix, but he tweeted Tuesday: “I’ve left camp for a week or 2 for personal matters. I’m healthy and excited for this year. I’ll be back shortly.” Baldelli wasn’t willing to divulge why Thorpe’s taking a leave of absence. However, he noted that the Twins do believe Thorpe will return “at some point during camp, [but I] can’t tell you when that’s going to be” (via Dawn Klemish of MLB.com).

  • The Mets reportedly aren’t sure how the No. 5 spot in their rotation will look this year, but righty Michael Wacha made a strong case for the job Tuesday, as Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. Wacha’s fastball ranged from 94 to 96 mph during his outing. “They told me I am a starter, so that is what I am here for,” Wacha said. The former Cardinal, 28, has worked almost exclusively as a starter to this point, but he did yo-yo between St. Louis’ rotation and bullpen during a rough 2019 campaign. The Mets then added Wacha for a $3MM guarantee in free agency, and he’s now competing against lefty Steven Matz for the last place in their starting staff.
  • Mariners righty Kendall Graveman has made good progress in his recovery from July 2018 Tommy John surgery, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times details. Graveman was with Oakland when he underwent the procedure, but he hooked on with the Cubs as a free agent for 2019 and didn’t end up pitching for the club. Now healthy, the 29-year-old Graveman – whom the Mariners signed for $2MM in November – figures to begin 2020 in the M’s rotation. It has been quite some time since Graveman turned in a full, effective season; at his best, he totaled 186 innings of 4.11 ERA/4.39 FIP ball with a 5.23 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 52.1 percent groundball rate in 2016.
  • Athletics righty Daulton Jefferies is dealing with a biceps strain and will undergo an MRI later this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. However, manager Bob Melvin suggested it’s not an especially serious injury. The 24-year-old Jefferies, who originally joined the Athletics as the 37th overall pick in 2016,  was a standout in Double-A ball last season. In his first experience at the level, he posted a 3.66 ERA/3.19 FIP with 10.13 K/9 and 0.98 BB/9 in 64 innings.

Mets Considering Creative Approach To 5th Starter Spot

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The Mets are at least pondering a less-than-standard approach to filling their fifth starter’s spot, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s possible that neither Steven Matz nor Michael Wacha will simply win the job in camp.

[RELATED: Camp Battles: Mets Rotation]

Other organizations have already acted effectively upon the fundamental premise. The Mets would shed typical forms in favor of a flexible arrangement that maximizes the abilities of the players on hand.

It’s certainly an intriguing concept, at least in some of its forms. There are several possibilities, per Sherman: Matz and Wacha could essentially tag in and out of the rotation depending upon matchups. The team might also utilize an opener. While the premise isn’t specifically contemplated in Sherman’s piece, it stands to reason that those two starters could also be utilized in a piggyback arrangement at times.

This all obviously depends upon health. Most contending organizations strive to have more arms available than is needed on paper, since it’s rare that all can be called upon at a given time. In this case, especially, that’s a major factor since both Matz and Wacha have dealt with fairly significant health limitations in recent years.

As Sherman explains, there are other factors to be considered as well. It’s tempting to imagine a game opened by Seth Lugo, carried by multi-inning stints from Matz and/or Wacha, and then closed down by power relievers Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Edwin Diaz. But the realities of day-to-day pitching management likely won’t allow such a clean progression on a regular basis. And the fact is, for all their individual and collective upside, every one of those hurlers enters the season with a significant downside scenario.

All of that isn’t to say this concept isn’t worth exploring. To the contrary, this seems like a logical application of shifts we’ve witnessed in recent years. Perhaps some starters shouldn’t be tasked with quite so many innings, while some relievers can handle more. The Mets’ own array of talent does seem to suit an adaptable methodology.

Mixing and matching and generally acting flexibly can have obvious advantages. There’ll also be some potential pitfalls to be navigated. Taken as a whole, the idea only makes the already interesting Mets more fun to watch.

Pitcher Notes: Rays, Glasnow, Mets, Wacha, Cardinals, Flaherty

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While recovering from November wrist surgery, Tyler Glasnow is tinkering with his arsenal. The big right-hander plans on ditching his changeup and replacing it with a splitter, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio . Glasnow’s changeup has never been a primary feature of his arsenal, topping at a 10.3% usage rate in 2017. It also hasn’t been a particularly effective pitch, save for in 2019 when hitters managed to slug just .125 against it, albeit in very limited usage (3.5%). It’s certainly intriguing to dream on a splitter to compliment Glasnow’s two lockdown offerings, but the pitch will have to survive spring training before taking on much (if any) significance. On a night of high drama, let’s check in on a couple other pitchers…

  • Michael Wacha recognizes the starting depth he will be contending against in Mets camp this spring, but he’s undaunted, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. After all, as Healey points out, Wacha twice fought his way back into the Cardinals rotation last season after time in the bullpen. Of course, that might also be a sign that he’s the likeliest of the Mets’ six rotation candidates to start the year out of the money (both literally and figuratively, given the incentives in Wacha’s contract for games started). Wacha finished last season with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP across 126 2/3 innings, and he’s only twice crossed the 150 inning threshold. It’ll be an uphill climb for Wacha to make the rotation by opening day, but it’s not impossible. Given the injury rate, there’s a decent chance he finds his way into the rotation at some point in 2020 regardless.
  • Jack Flaherty isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season, which means he can’t test free agency until following 2023, but the Cardinals ought to do their due diligence in locking him up now, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Easier said than done of course, especially with a player who has already shown signs of understanding his tremendous value. Frederickson recounts Flaherty’s rejection of the Cardinals salary offer before last season, which cost him $10,000, though the penalty was worth it from Flaherty’s perspective. The statement he was able to make about the current system was of bigger importance to the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a good sign in terms of Flaherty’s character and competitive spirit, but perhaps less so for Cardinals fans hoping for news of an early extension. Flaherty’s displeasure with the arbitration system has little to do with the Cardinals, of course, but after a dominant 2019 in which he posted a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP, including a mind-boggling 0.91 ERA in the second half, it’s understandable for Flaherty to be at least a little displeased at making close to the league minimum.

Mets Agree To Sign Michael Wacha

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DECEMBER 15: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has the breakdown on the incentives in Wacha’s contract. He’ll earn $500K for making 10, 14, and 18 starts, along with $500K for each start from 20-30. Finally, Wacha can earn $1.35MM worth of award bonuses. With $8.35MM worth of incentives, Wacha’s total earning potential for 2020 comes out to $11.35MM.

DECEMBER 11, 3:23pm: There’s a deal in place pending a physical, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It guarantees $3MM, per Sherman (via Twitter), with up to $7MM in possible incentives.

3:09pm: The Mets are “working hard to finalize” a contract with righty Michael Wacha, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If completed, it’ll be for a one-year term; financials have yet to be reported.

If this deal is wrapped up, Wacha would presumably round out the New York starting five. He’d also become the latest client of CAA — the former outfit of Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen — to join the New York organization.

It’s interesting to see Wacha heading in on a bounceback arrangement as Zack Wheeler departs with a huge contract. It wasn’t long ago that the former was seen as a major free agent target of the future, while the latter’s career was in limbo owing to health reasons.

Now, it’s Wacha who is trying to prove he can stay healthy and restore his former effectiveness. The former first-round pick has had some peaks to go with the valleys in recent years, but hasn’t looked like the budding young staff he was in 2013-15.

Last season, Wacha turned in a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 126 2/3 innings. With balls flying out of the yard at a rate of 1.8 per nine, he was ultimately demoted to the bullpen. Wacha ended up averaging a career-low 93.4 mph with his fastball, though that’s only one tick off from his overall career average.

It’s tough to say just how much upside Wacha offers at this stage. He was able to stay on the mound for most of 2019 but hasn’t been as effective as he was before shoulder and back issues began to crop up. Statcast numbers don’t offer much in the way of encouragement; if anything, they suggest his strong ’18 output (3.20 ERA in 84 1/3 innings) was based upon some good fortune (.249 BABIP-against, .286 wOBA vs. .350 xwOBA). Still, it’s awfully tempting to dream on a powerhouse Mets rotation if Wacha and Steven Matz are able to turn in healthy and productive campaigns.

Mets Announce Wacha Signing, Designate Chris Mazza

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The Mets announced today that they have signed righty Michael Wacha, as previously reported. To create 40-man space, the club designated fellow right-hander Chris Mazza for assignment.

Mazza made his MLB debut last year, throwing 16 1/3 innings of 5.51 ERA ball over nine outings. He was better in the upper minors, working in the mid-three ERA range in stints at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Mazza has a penchant for drawing groundballs on the farm, though he’ll need to prove he can do so consistently in the bigs if he’s able to earn his way back up.

Wacha tells reporters that he expects to function as a starter in New York. Indeed, that was a key factor in his decision, he suggested. (Via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, on Twitter.) With Rick Porcello also set to join the staff on the same premise, it seems the Mets will at some point strike a trade involving another starter (or have some explaining to do).

Postseason Injury Notes: Chapman, Wacha, Diaz

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman was seen with his left hand heavily bandaged during the team’s celebration last night, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post, but the lefty insisted that there was no serious injury at play. Rather, Chapman explained, he was hit with a bottle while jumping with teammates to celebrate the Yankees’ advancement to the American League Championship Series. There’s no indication that Chapman would need to miss New York’s forthcoming date with either the Astros or the Rays.

A few more injury situations to monitor around the league…

  • Cardinals righty Michael Wacha will throw a bullpen session tomorrow, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. A mild shoulder strain kept Wacha off the Cardinals’ NLDS roster, but if he comes out of this ’pen session well and the Cards manage to topple the Braves in tomorrow’s decisive Game 5, Wacha could reemerge as an option for the pitching staff in the next round. Of course, Wacha didn’t exactly cement himself as a crucial part of a postseason roster while struggling through one of his worst big league seasons. In 126 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.76 ERA with career-worst marks in K/9 (7.4), BB/9 (3.9) and HR/9 (1.85). He’ll be a free agent this winter, so if he doesn’t return for a potential NLCS berth, Wacha may have already tossed his last pitch as a Cardinal.
  • Rays slugger Yandy Diaz is still on the team’s postseason roster despite exiting Monday’s game with an apparent foot injury, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Though he’s not in tonight’s starting lineup — Joey Wendle gets the nod at third base, with Ji-Man Choi at first and Tommy Pham DH’ing — Diaz presumably remains available for pinch-hit duties or for a mid-game substitution. Wade Miley is the only lefty on Houston’s ALDS roster, but Diaz and his .314/.397/.588 slash against southpaws could quite likely emerge from the dugout if Miley makes his way to the mound.
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