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Michael Wacha

Rays Sign Michael Wacha

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The Rays added a veteran source of innings to their rotation Friday morning, announcing a one-year deal with right-hander Michael Wacha. The CAA client will reportedly land a $3MM guarantee on the heels of a rough 2020 season with the Mets. That’s the same salary (prior to pro-rating) that Wacha earned in New York last season.

Michael Wacha | Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Wacha struggled through eight games with the Mets in the abbreviated 2020 season, pitching to a 6.62 ERA with a whopping nine home runs allowed in just 34 innings. His 2019 season was also rather lackluster campaign owing in no small part to knee and shoulder injuries — the latter of which has been a recurring issue throughout his career.

Despite the down showing, Wacha was reportedly a fairly popular target among free-agent starters due to his age and price point. The 2015 All-Star also logged a very strong 37-to-7 K/BB ratio in those 34 frames while seeing marked upticks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. His 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate trails only his 11.4 percent mark from his rookie campaign back in 2013, and Wacha’s 34.3 percent chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone was far and away a career-high. He won’t turn 30 until July, either, making Wacha younger than several other free-agent rotation options on the market.

Wacha’s average fastball velocity bottomed out with the Cardinals in 2019, sitting at a career-low 93 mph, per Statcast. He made some positive gains last year, sitting at 93.6 mph with the pitch, but he’s still a ways removed from his 95.1 mph peak back in 2017. He altered his pitch selection considerably in 2020, scrapping a once highly effective curveball to lean into a three-pitch mix featuring his four-seamer, cutter and changeup. The results weren’t great from a run-prevention standpoint, although the aforementioned gains in missed bats surely piqued the Rays’ interest.

Wacha is a sensible pickup for the Rays, who earlier this winter declined their $15MM club option on Charlie Morton but still have high-end starters Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to front the rotation. Depth, however, is more of an issue than usual for Tampa Bay, as each of Yonny Chirinos (Tommy John surgery), Jalen Beeks (Tommy John surgery) and Brendan McKay (shoulder surgery) went under the knife in the past several months. Chirinos and Beeks won’t pitch in 2021. McKay’s timeline is still muddy. Prior indications have been that he’ll be delayed in ’21 but eventually be able to take the mound.

With Wacha now on board, the Rays will presumably deploy a starting mix of Snell, Glasnow, Wacha and Ryan Yarbrough. Lefty Josh Fleming, righty Trevor Richards and top prospect Shane McClanahan are all candidates to claim permanent spots in the rotation as well. The Rays were also the club to popularize the usage of openers, so it’s possible they’ll eschew a set fifth starter entirely, instead gravitating toward less conventional means of pitcher use. The possibility of trading a more experienced starter can’t be written off, either, as Snell’s name has popped up on the rumor circuit at multiple points this winter.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported that the two sides were “deep” in talks and that the two sides had reached a $3MM agreement (Twitter links).

Michael Wacha Generating Interest Despite Down Year

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Michael Wacha’s time with the Mets didn’t go at all as the team had hoped when signing him to a one-year, $3MM deal last winter, but ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that despite a season of lackluster results, Wacha is “among the most popular” free-agent starters on the market at the moment. The vast majority of clubs in the league are looking to cut back costs, and Wacha’s track record with the Cardinals, age and likely one-year price point all seemingly work in his favor.

The 29-year-old righty appeared in eight games (seven starts) for the Mets in 2020 and was rocked for a 6.52 ERA with an alarming nine long balls served up in that time. That marked a second straight rough season for Wacha, who logged a 4.76 ERA in 2019 and finished out that season with shoulder troubles — a problem that he’d also battled in the past.

Many will look at a pitcher with a 5.15 ERA over his past two seasons/160 frames and wonder why he’d generate interest, although today’s front offices place dwindling levels of stock in the game’s conventional and more rudimentary means of evaluating performance. Olney notes that an uptick in velocity has contributed to the interest. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who also suggests interest in Wacha is strong, writes that increased usage of his cutter has piqued the interest of teams around the league (15.5 percent in 2019; 27.1 percent in 2020, per Statcast).

Those seemingly encouraging trends should be accompanied by some caveats, though. Wacha’s velocity jump wasn’t particularly substantial, as he averaged 93 mph on his four-seamer in 2019, per Statcast, and 93.6 mph in 2020. That 93.6 mph mark still falls well shy of the 95.1 mph Wacha averaged in 2017 (his peak velocity season) and the 94.8 mph he averaged in 2015 (arguably the best season of his career). His increased cutter usage came at the expense of a curveball which was a woefully ineffective pitch for him in 2019. However, the cutter was still hit hard by opponents and the curveball was a very effective offering as recently as 2017 (and to a lesser extent in 2018).

None of that is to say that there’s no reason to expect improvement from Wacha moving forward. Last year’s 19.2 K-BB% was the best of his career, and Wacha has never induced swinging-strikes and generated chases outside the strike zone at a higher rate than in 2020. He gave up too much hard contact in the air — hence the nine homers — but the right-hander was among the game’s best at inducing weak contact on the ground (81.9 mph average exit velocity).

Properly evaluating a pitcher is always a tall order — and that’s particularly true when looking at an eight-game sample from a pandemic-shortened season. Wacha won’t turn 30 until next July. That, paired with some of the trend lines he demonstrated in 2020, could land him a decent guarantee from a club seeking a bargain rotation play with some upside. If all goes well for him in ’21, Wacha could hit the market again as a 30-year-old free agent in a much better position than he currently finds himself.

Mets Rotation Update

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A month ago, the New York Mets made the bold move to transition two of their highest-volume relievers to the rotation. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo each came to the majors with expectations of starting, but after years of working effectively out of the bullpen, the Mets gambled by moving the pair back to the rotation mid-season. The experiment is over for Gsellman, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.

Gsellman’s longest outing was a 4-inning stint in which he allowed one run while striking out four and walking none. While the Mets eventually lost that game 2-1, it was the only game of the four Gsellman started that went that way. Still, short outings and an 8.68 ERA suggest Gsellman is better suited to returning to his usual role in the bullpen, where the Mets rank 11th as a team by ERA and 12th by FIP.

Besides, the Mets’ rotation is full again with ace Jacob deGrom followed by Rick Porcello, David Peterson, and Michael Wacha. The 25-year-old Peterson has been a pleasant surprise, going 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA/4.02 FIP. His emergence has been especially important considering the de-evolution and subsequent injured list stint for fellow southpaw Steven Matz. Matz slumped to a 0-4 mark with an unsightly 8.63 ERA/6.69 FIP before being placed on the injured list for shoulder bursitis.

The right-handed, non-deGrom, veteran division of the rotation – consisting of Porcello and Wacha – have produced subpar results by measure of ERA, but take a look at an ERA-indicator like FIP and you’ll find a much different story. Porcello boasts just a 1-4 record over 8 starts (39 innings) with a 5.54 ERA – but a 2.97 FIP. Wacha, similarly, has a horrid 7.20 ERA over 5 starts (20 innings) – but a much more respectable 4.40 FIP. Wacha in particular has shown an impressive 12.2 K/9, easily a career high, but he’s also surrendered 12.6 hits per nine innings, a mark that’s equally outside his career norms. A .429 BABIP against might be partially responsible for the discrepancy between FIP and ERA, giving the Mets cause to believe in their rotation over the season’s final three weeks.

Lugo will continue to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation. Long one of New York’s most reliable relievers, Lugo has continued to impress from the rotation. While no stranger to the rotation – Lugo made 31 starts from 2016 to 2018 – he worked exclusively out of the pen in 2019 for an identical 2.70 ERA/FIP across 61 appearances covering 80 innings. He’s been their most reliable bullpen arm in recent seasons, but having acquired Miguel Castro from the Orioles at the deadline and moving Gsellman back to the pen, the Mets are betting that they can afford to keep Lugo in the rotation for now. The 30-year-old has done an admirable job stretching himself to starter’s minutes, culminating in a 5-inning outing his last time out. In total, Lugo has a 1.54 ERA across 11 2/3 innings since moving to the rotation.

Mets Designate Juan Lagares For Assignment

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The Mets announced a series of roster moves to reporters Friday, designating outfielder Juan Lagares for assignment and reinstating righty Michael Wacha, shortstop Andres Gimenez and outfielder Jake Marisnick from the injured list (Twitter link via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). The team also placed righty Corey Oswalt on the 10-day IL due to biceps tendinitis, optioned right-hander Drew Smith to the alternate training site in Brooklyn and added catcher Patrick Mazeika as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader.

Lagares, 31, was a mainstay on the Mets’ roster from 2013-19 before his 2020 club option was declined at the beginning of this past offseason. He eventually inked a minor league contract with the Padres but elected free agency when the team didn’t include him in its player pool. Lagares wound up returning to the Mets organization and getting called up this week, but he appeared in just two games without taking a plate appearance prior to this DFA. The return of Marisnick, who had been on the injured list since July 28, likely made Marisnick expendable. Both are right-handed-hitting, glove-first outfielders.

Mets Place Michael Wacha On 10-Day IL

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The Mets announced that right-hander Michael Wacha has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder.  Catcher Ali Sanchez has been called up from the club’s alternate training site to take Wacha’s spot on the active roster.

After a strong debut start for New York on July 27, Wacha has struggled over his last two outings, and has an overall 6.43 ERA over his first 14 innings in a Mets uniform.  Despite a 3.60 K/BB rate, an 11.6 K/9, and some generally above-average Statcast numbers, Wacha has been hurt badly by the long ball, with three homers allowed over his 14 frames (1.9 HR/9).  The early returns suggest a troubling continuation of the homer problem that plagued Wacha last season, as his HR/9 went from 0.9 over the first six years of his career to a sudden 1.8 number in 2019.

Wacha’s absence leaves the Mets further short-handed in a rotation that already lost Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery last spring and Marcus Stroman to the injured list due to a tear in his calf muscle.  Mets manager Luis Rojas told the New York Post’s Mike Puma and other reporters that Stroman was still at least another simulated game away from returning, so there isn’t enough time for Stroman to be activated prior to Wednesday, when Wacha was scheduled to start.  Erasmo Ramirez, Corey Oswalt, Franklyn Kilome, and Ariel Jurado are all available at the Mets’ alternate training site as potential fill-ins, both for Wednesday or potentially longer if Stroman needs more time.

Quick Hits: Miller, Wacha, Expansion

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Some items from around the game…

  • Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller spoke to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about several topics, including the recent agreement between the league and players’ union about the 2020 season, how Miller is handling the shutdown, and the rather mysterious arm problem that sidelined Miller earlier this month.  “There are some explanations for some of what I’m going through and I have a lot of appreciation for the amount of time [Cardinals head athletic trainer] Adam Olsen and Dr. [Brian] Mahaffey have put in helping me to look for some answers,” Miller said.  Though there still isn’t an actual diagnosis of Miller’s issue, “I think I have answers that make a lot of sense and they’re not the type of thing that brings any sort of concern to my health and my livelihood.”  The southpaw is currently throwing, albeit under “not…ideal” circumstances working out at his home rather than in a normal training environment.
  • Michael Wacha turned to some offseason video analysis with his father to help solve mechanical problems from the 2019 season, which put him in a good place heading into his first Spring Training with the Mets, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes.  By the time Wacha met with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and assistant pitching coach Jeremy Accardo in camp, “they said my mechanical changes that I made over the offseason were exactly what they were going to be telling me,” Wacha said.  “Exactly the same type of information or helpful tips that they were trying to get me into, I already made them on my own.”  The early returns in Grapefruit League action were somewhat promising, as Wacha posted a 1.17 ERA over 7 2/3 innings, albeit with four walks against only five strikeouts.  However, Wacha also didn’t allow any home runs, which was a positive sign after an ugly 1.8 HR/9 helped push his ERA to 4.76 over 126 2/3 innings with the Cardinals last season.  Wacha signed a one-year, $3MM with the Mets in the offseason and now looks to be a member of their starting five, in the wake of Noah Syndergaard’s season-ending Tommy John surgery.
  • With league revenues bound to take a massive hit due to the shutdown, could expansion be an ideal way to inject some new money into the sport?  Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the question, noting that adding two new teams worth $750MM each (which is perhaps a conservative estimate for the price tag of a new club) in franchise fees would give each current team an extra $50MM in revenue.  Commissioner Rob Manfred has often said that the league would only consider increasing its membership after all of the current 30 teams (namely the A’s and Rays) had some type of plans in place for a new ballpark, and Edwards observes that the league hasn’t had any real financial incentive to expand in recent years.  Of course, the pandemic could now change that stance entirely, though Edwards also points out that the worldwide financial uncertainty caused by the ongoing crisis could lead to fewer potential owners willing meet the price for an expansion team, and cash-strapped cities will now have even less of a reason to spend resources on building a new stadium for a new team.

Pitcher Notes: Twins, Wacha, Mariners, A’s

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Veteran right-hander Jhoulys Chacin had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins at the outset of the month, but he may be impressing the club enough to end up on its season-opening roster. Manager Rocco Baldelli said (via the Star Tribune) that Chacin has “done everything he can to this point to put himself in position to eventually win a spot.” As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored earlier this week, the 32-year-old Chacin is one of a few candidates in the running. Lefty Lewis Thorpe is also in the mix, but he tweeted Tuesday: “I’ve left camp for a week or 2 for personal matters. I’m healthy and excited for this year. I’ll be back shortly.” Baldelli wasn’t willing to divulge why Thorpe’s taking a leave of absence. However, he noted that the Twins do believe Thorpe will return “at some point during camp, [but I] can’t tell you when that’s going to be” (via Dawn Klemish of MLB.com).

  • The Mets reportedly aren’t sure how the No. 5 spot in their rotation will look this year, but righty Michael Wacha made a strong case for the job Tuesday, as Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. Wacha’s fastball ranged from 94 to 96 mph during his outing. “They told me I am a starter, so that is what I am here for,” Wacha said. The former Cardinal, 28, has worked almost exclusively as a starter to this point, but he did yo-yo between St. Louis’ rotation and bullpen during a rough 2019 campaign. The Mets then added Wacha for a $3MM guarantee in free agency, and he’s now competing against lefty Steven Matz for the last place in their starting staff.
  • Mariners righty Kendall Graveman has made good progress in his recovery from July 2018 Tommy John surgery, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times details. Graveman was with Oakland when he underwent the procedure, but he hooked on with the Cubs as a free agent for 2019 and didn’t end up pitching for the club. Now healthy, the 29-year-old Graveman – whom the Mariners signed for $2MM in November – figures to begin 2020 in the M’s rotation. It has been quite some time since Graveman turned in a full, effective season; at his best, he totaled 186 innings of 4.11 ERA/4.39 FIP ball with a 5.23 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 52.1 percent groundball rate in 2016.
  • Athletics righty Daulton Jefferies is dealing with a biceps strain and will undergo an MRI later this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. However, manager Bob Melvin suggested it’s not an especially serious injury. The 24-year-old Jefferies, who originally joined the Athletics as the 37th overall pick in 2016,  was a standout in Double-A ball last season. In his first experience at the level, he posted a 3.66 ERA/3.19 FIP with 10.13 K/9 and 0.98 BB/9 in 64 innings.

Mets Considering Creative Approach To 5th Starter Spot

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The Mets are at least pondering a less-than-standard approach to filling their fifth starter’s spot, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s possible that neither Steven Matz nor Michael Wacha will simply win the job in camp.

[RELATED: Camp Battles: Mets Rotation]

Other organizations have already acted effectively upon the fundamental premise. The Mets would shed typical forms in favor of a flexible arrangement that maximizes the abilities of the players on hand.

It’s certainly an intriguing concept, at least in some of its forms. There are several possibilities, per Sherman: Matz and Wacha could essentially tag in and out of the rotation depending upon matchups. The team might also utilize an opener. While the premise isn’t specifically contemplated in Sherman’s piece, it stands to reason that those two starters could also be utilized in a piggyback arrangement at times.

This all obviously depends upon health. Most contending organizations strive to have more arms available than is needed on paper, since it’s rare that all can be called upon at a given time. In this case, especially, that’s a major factor since both Matz and Wacha have dealt with fairly significant health limitations in recent years.

As Sherman explains, there are other factors to be considered as well. It’s tempting to imagine a game opened by Seth Lugo, carried by multi-inning stints from Matz and/or Wacha, and then closed down by power relievers Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Edwin Diaz. But the realities of day-to-day pitching management likely won’t allow such a clean progression on a regular basis. And the fact is, for all their individual and collective upside, every one of those hurlers enters the season with a significant downside scenario.

All of that isn’t to say this concept isn’t worth exploring. To the contrary, this seems like a logical application of shifts we’ve witnessed in recent years. Perhaps some starters shouldn’t be tasked with quite so many innings, while some relievers can handle more. The Mets’ own array of talent does seem to suit an adaptable methodology.

Mixing and matching and generally acting flexibly can have obvious advantages. There’ll also be some potential pitfalls to be navigated. Taken as a whole, the idea only makes the already interesting Mets more fun to watch.

Pitcher Notes: Rays, Glasnow, Mets, Wacha, Cardinals, Flaherty

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While recovering from November wrist surgery, Tyler Glasnow is tinkering with his arsenal. The big right-hander plans on ditching his changeup and replacing it with a splitter, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio . Glasnow’s changeup has never been a primary feature of his arsenal, topping at a 10.3% usage rate in 2017. It also hasn’t been a particularly effective pitch, save for in 2019 when hitters managed to slug just .125 against it, albeit in very limited usage (3.5%). It’s certainly intriguing to dream on a splitter to compliment Glasnow’s two lockdown offerings, but the pitch will have to survive spring training before taking on much (if any) significance. On a night of high drama, let’s check in on a couple other pitchers…

  • Michael Wacha recognizes the starting depth he will be contending against in Mets camp this spring, but he’s undaunted, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. After all, as Healey points out, Wacha twice fought his way back into the Cardinals rotation last season after time in the bullpen. Of course, that might also be a sign that he’s the likeliest of the Mets’ six rotation candidates to start the year out of the money (both literally and figuratively, given the incentives in Wacha’s contract for games started). Wacha finished last season with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP across 126 2/3 innings, and he’s only twice crossed the 150 inning threshold. It’ll be an uphill climb for Wacha to make the rotation by opening day, but it’s not impossible. Given the injury rate, there’s a decent chance he finds his way into the rotation at some point in 2020 regardless.
  • Jack Flaherty isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season, which means he can’t test free agency until following 2023, but the Cardinals ought to do their due diligence in locking him up now, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Easier said than done of course, especially with a player who has already shown signs of understanding his tremendous value. Frederickson recounts Flaherty’s rejection of the Cardinals salary offer before last season, which cost him $10,000, though the penalty was worth it from Flaherty’s perspective. The statement he was able to make about the current system was of bigger importance to the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a good sign in terms of Flaherty’s character and competitive spirit, but perhaps less so for Cardinals fans hoping for news of an early extension. Flaherty’s displeasure with the arbitration system has little to do with the Cardinals, of course, but after a dominant 2019 in which he posted a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP, including a mind-boggling 0.91 ERA in the second half, it’s understandable for Flaherty to be at least a little displeased at making close to the league minimum.

Mets Agree To Sign Michael Wacha

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DECEMBER 15: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com has the breakdown on the incentives in Wacha’s contract. He’ll earn $500K for making 10, 14, and 18 starts, along with $500K for each start from 20-30. Finally, Wacha can earn $1.35MM worth of award bonuses. With $8.35MM worth of incentives, Wacha’s total earning potential for 2020 comes out to $11.35MM.

DECEMBER 11, 3:23pm: There’s a deal in place pending a physical, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It guarantees $3MM, per Sherman (via Twitter), with up to $7MM in possible incentives.

3:09pm: The Mets are “working hard to finalize” a contract with righty Michael Wacha, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If completed, it’ll be for a one-year term; financials have yet to be reported.

If this deal is wrapped up, Wacha would presumably round out the New York starting five. He’d also become the latest client of CAA — the former outfit of Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen — to join the New York organization.

It’s interesting to see Wacha heading in on a bounceback arrangement as Zack Wheeler departs with a huge contract. It wasn’t long ago that the former was seen as a major free agent target of the future, while the latter’s career was in limbo owing to health reasons.

Now, it’s Wacha who is trying to prove he can stay healthy and restore his former effectiveness. The former first-round pick has had some peaks to go with the valleys in recent years, but hasn’t looked like the budding young staff he was in 2013-15.

Last season, Wacha turned in a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 126 2/3 innings. With balls flying out of the yard at a rate of 1.8 per nine, he was ultimately demoted to the bullpen. Wacha ended up averaging a career-low 93.4 mph with his fastball, though that’s only one tick off from his overall career average.

It’s tough to say just how much upside Wacha offers at this stage. He was able to stay on the mound for most of 2019 but hasn’t been as effective as he was before shoulder and back issues began to crop up. Statcast numbers don’t offer much in the way of encouragement; if anything, they suggest his strong ’18 output (3.20 ERA in 84 1/3 innings) was based upon some good fortune (.249 BABIP-against, .286 wOBA vs. .350 xwOBA). Still, it’s awfully tempting to dream on a powerhouse Mets rotation if Wacha and Steven Matz are able to turn in healthy and productive campaigns.

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